The Week Ahead

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10:15PM

Upper level high pressure will be entered just southwest of New England to start the week but will retrograde further west with time, allowing the jet stream to sink a little further southward over the region by the end of the week, along with some disturbances moving along it. A weather front may get close and sneak down part of the coast on  Tuesday and will again make an appearance nearby about Friday, finally getting pushed southward with a couple of secondary trough lines or weak fronts traversing the region by the weekend.

The overall story for much of the week will be the heat and humidity dominating the region. But that series of fronts by the end of the week may deliver a shot of less humid, less hot air by later in the weekend.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Clouds depart the South Coast, a few low clouds and fog patches may form, otherwise mostly clear. Humid. Lows middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind light variable.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm late day or early evening mainly northern MA and southern NH. Humid. Highs lower 80s South Coast and Cape Cod to lower 90s most locations. Wind variable to NW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Humid. Lows middle 60s to lower 70s. Wind light NW to N

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Chance of a few showers and thunderstorms mainly interior southern NH, east central MA, and northern RI mid afternoon through early evening. Humid. Highs middle 80s to lower 90s, but may cool back through the 80s to the upper 70s coastal areas especially southern NH to eastern MA coastal areas later in the day. Wind N 5-15 MPH may turn more NE in NH and MA coastal areas.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Isolated PM thunderstorms favoring southern NH and northeastern MA. Low 69. High 91.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to scattered PM thunderstorms favoring southern NH, northeastern and east central MA. Low 70. High 92.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered thunderstorms. Low 72. High 90.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 68. High 88.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 82.

85 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

    1. Strong cell in west central CT. Given the cleanness of the air, it’s very possible to see lightning from quite a distance away.

      1. Wow!! R u serious, I can see lightning to the west, actual lightning strikes not hitting ground but within the cloud

        1. Earlier this summer I was watching lightning within a cloud that was located over southern VT from here just NW of Boston. If the air is clean enough, it’s very possible. 🙂

          1. Way back in my youth I worked with an 80-ish year old gentleman (and I use that in the truest sense of the word) who was a grad of MIT and a Professor at Harvard. He was one of the leading experts on ferroresonance. I once said something about heat lightening and he quickly corrected me and said there was no such thing. I’ll be darned if I can remember why, TK. If memory serves me, he meant that it was every bit the “true” lightening as people tend to think of heat lightening as being unrelated to storms, etc. and basically harmless.

  7. To: North

    I sort of agree with you about the AccuWeather Trivia Quiz answer. I also got it wrong. But it was the answer that Joe Joyce gave . I still almost don’t believe it.

    1. Well just ducky. We’ll be at the beach. Where do you go in a house that is on stilts if there is a tornado warning?? Odd how I have never worried about that and have always enjoyed storms at the beach. Says a lot about the difference this year….or perhaps the new normal. Oh how I detest that term.

  9. Thanks TK!! I was interested to hear JR say two things this morning. First, he said Worcester has not seen a 90 degree day yet. Elevation?? Too far inland??

    Also, he said no storms until Friday afternoon…….hmmmmmmm

    1. Worcester records are kept at the airport, 1,000 foot elevation, so that’s
      the reason.

      1. Thanks OS – I was thinking elevation too. So I am now campaigning to live on a mountain but can’t find one in Framingham.

    1. Not Saturday. Going to my first sox/Yankees game with my son. Might be heading up Hampton after the game till Tuesday night as a condo has been offered free of charge.

  11. I wouldn’t worry yet since its only Monday. So many things could change with the timing of the front coming through.
    Its 4pm game Saturday so hopefully the front will slow down and come through Saturday night after the game.
    John enjoy the hot weather but stay cool if you can!

  12. Vicki,

    To set the record straight…

    The only one that has mentioned tornadoes was I. NOT TK and NOT JJ as they
    only indicated a concern for severe weather.

    Right or wrong I am concerned and Yes it is TOO far out. I was just indicating a
    possibility, not unlike indicating the possibility of a snow storm in the Winter
    should all ingredients come together just right. The same for this situation. All of
    the ingredients HAVE to come together just right for tornadoes to happen.

    AS we get closer we’ll know more. The conservative route is to simply say there
    is a severe weather threat that has to be monitored. However, I’m NOT conservative in any way shape or form. I’ll often say exactly what’s on my mind, even to my own
    detriment. Thus, I shared my thoughts on “potential” for later this week. Btw, Not for nothing, but the wording from SPC and NWS at Taunton peeled the lid off of the
    weather can and got me thinking. 😀

    1. Sorry OS that’s not what I meant. It seems that in the past a severe storm is just that. Now, tornadoes come to mind – even if not mentioned. The the possibility of course always existed but the probability seems to be increasing for this area. Although I don’t think it should ever be assumed – and I didn’t – I also think it would be a but foolhardy not to see that we are having more systems where its possible.

      And darn, there are those two words again 😉

      1. I hope that made sense. Bottom line is I didn’t think anyone mentioned tornadoes as I hadn’t even seen your mention.

        1. Vicki,

          I guess I just didn’t want anyone needlessly worrying because of something I posted. But in this blog, I think we are free to speculate and share out thoughts and that
          is exactly what I did.

          Having said that, the last several years certainly has
          seen an uptick in tornadoes, or so it seems anyway.

          I continue to watch the upcoming event carefully.

          We shall see what happens.

          1. I understand and appreciate your comment and concern greatly. I also think your posts are great and have never seen you “hype” anything so no worries from me at all. Just keep up the great information and links. I love them!!

  13. From the NWS office at Taunton this morning:

    GIVEN THE ANOMALOUSLY HOT/HUMID AIRMASS IN
    PLACE ALONG WITH DECENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT…THERE WILL BE THE
    POTENTIAL FOR SOME ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. WHETHER THAT COMES TO FRUITION OR NOT…WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND MANY MESOSCALE FEATURES THAT ARE UNKNOWN AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER…IT PROBABLY WOULD BE TOUGH TO ESCAPE THE END OF THE WEEK WITHOUT AT LEAST SOME SEVERE WEATHER GIVEN THE SETUP.

  14. If you look at the discussion from the SPC the EURO and some ensembles have been consistent run to run. It was the EURO that was consistent run to run when the blizzard happened. Will see what happens here.
    There are ingredients in place for severe weather later this week. We just have to wait and see if everything lines up just right and what the model data says as we progress through the week.

    1. JJ, Agree 100%.

      Waiting for the SREF to come into range. That model has all of the Severe
      weather parameters. IF the main action comes at night, that “could” really
      temper any severe weather. I say “could”, because with this set up, we don’t
      necessarily need the diurnal heating of the Sun, although it always contributes. We shall see.

  15. Your right about not necessairly need the heating of the sun. When we had the three tornado touchdowns here in CT two weeks ago today we didn’t have any sunshine. There was enough low level shear in place along with the high dew points for brief tornado spin ups that day without any surfaced based instability from the sun.

    1. JJ, this time around, “should” all the ingredients come together just right,
      I don’t think we’re talking about “brief spin ups”… For now, I’ll leave it at that.

  16. On my way to work this morning (about 8:30) I drove past the bank on 228 in Norwell and it read 92!! This is always off by several degrees but even still…yikes!!

    2. Will Boston make 90 before the sea breeze kicks in. That is the question.

      10AM obs:

      Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
      (KBOS) 42.38N 71.03W

      Last Updated: Jul 15 2013, 9:54 am EDT
      Mon, 15 Jul 2013 09:54:00 -0400
      Weather: Partly Cloudy
      Temperature: 87.0 °F (30.6 °C)
      Dewpoint: 66.9 °F (19.4 °C)
      Relative Humidity: 51 %
      Heat Index: 90 F (32 C)
      Wind: North at 4.6 MPH (4 KT)
      Visibility: 10.00 miles
      MSL Pressure: 1021.8 mb
      Altimeter: 30.18 in Hg

      BTW, interesting little DIP in the dew point. A bit drier air drifting in from the North? I dunno.

      1. I live in Hingham (about a mile from the Harbor) and work in Norwell (about 6 miles from the water). Sometimes it can be a difference of 10 degrees when a seabreeze kicks in just that short distance.

  17. Bazinga!

    Boston hit 90 just as the sea breeze begins. This “may” allow Boston to see
    another Official heatwave. Of course, sea breeze could kill that tomorrow.

    11AM obs:

    Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
    (KBOS) 42.38N 71.03W

    Last Updated: Jul 15 2013, 10:54 am EDT
    Mon, 15 Jul 2013 10:54:00 -0400
    Weather: Partly Cloudy
    Temperature: 90.0 °F (32.2 °C)
    Dewpoint: 66.9 °F (19.4 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 47 %
    Heat Index: 93 F (34 C)
    Wind: Northeast at 5.8 MPH (5 KT)
    Visibility: 10.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1021.4 mb
    Altimeter: 30.17 in Hg

  18. The latest info for SREF goes to 0Z on 7/19 which is “about” 8PM on Thursday.

    Without the aide of the cold front, significant severe weather parameters are getting up there. This is at least a day ahead of our expected severe weather, which really
    is getting me worried. How will they look for the day we expect the severe weather?
    Will discuss more as additional information becomes available.

  20. This atmosphere has the POTENTIAL to be volatile later this week. You got the heat and humidity in place add a front which is the trigger and will provide lift and a high CAPE environment where these thunderstorms could grow.
    Will see if the storm prediction center is highlighting our area once again tomorrow which if it happens would be the 3rd straight day they feel there is at least a 30% chance of severe weather going beyond the day 3 outlook.

    1. Agree. Also, as long as I have been viewing the SPC website, I’ve never seen
      the severe threat indicated so far in advance. I think I saw it once, but it was for one day. They have it now for 3 days and for consecutive days. Usually IF they have it, it is for day 4, not days 5,6 and 7, which they had. I MEANS something, even if we don’t know exactly what it is yet. WELL WORTHY of NOTE. 😀

  21. At the risk of sounding really foolish and having everyone roll their eyes and say “she doesn’t know that yet” 😉 I’m using the NEXRAD radar Wunderground provides thanks to OS’s (I believe) recommendation. There is a lot of grey dotty stuff on it southwest of here. Is that clouds?? Sea breeze?? And yes you are free to laugh hysterically at my grey dotty description 😉

    1. I’ll take a stab at an answer.

      First, here is a Zoomed in link:

      http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&frame=0&delay=15&scale=0.230&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=0.230&centerx=430&centery=344&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=1&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

      1. The sea breeze is visible on a line from Malden through Brookline, then South of boston. NOT nearly as dramatic as yesterday, but still there.
      2. The echos you see to your South and SWest, are what is called “ground Clutter”. Echos returning to the radar site from Hills, trees, buildings etc.

      Clutter (also termed ground clutter) is a form of radar signal contamination. It occurs when fixed objects close to the transmitter—such as buildings, trees, or terrain (hills, ocean swells and waves)—obstruct a radar beam and produce echoes. The echoes resulting from ground clutter may be large in both size and intensity. The effects of ground clutter fall off as range increases usually due to the curvature of the earth and the tilt of the antenna above the horizon. Without special processing techniques, targets can be lost in returns from terrain on land or waves at sea.

      The clutter is exacerbated by the fact that the radar is on extreme sensitivity.
      The ground clutter is far, far less when it is on “normal” sensitivity.

      Hope this helps.

        1. Sorry, NO.

          The sea breeze was a discernible Green echo line
          amidst all of the other green echos.

          The grey, is ground clutter, but less of an echo than green.
          The other green is ground clutter, but of a higher return.

          😀

  22. I submit the following buoy observation from 12 Miles SE of Portland, ME.

    PORTLAND 12 NM Southeast of Portland,ME
    (44007) 43.531N 70.144W
    Last Updated: Jul 15 2013, 11:50 am EST
    Mon, 15 Jul 2013 11:50:00 -0500
    Temperature: 73.6 °F (23.1 °C)
    MSL Pressure: 1020.0 mb
    Water Temperature: 69.8 °F (21.0 °C)
    Wave Height: 0.3 m (0.98 ft)
    Dominant Period: 8 sec
    Average Period: 5.4 sec

    NOT sure I have ever seen that before. Pretty impressive.

    BTW, Nantucket Sound Water Temperature: 76.8 °F (24.9 °C)

  23. Old Salty looking back at the Springfield tornado of 2011 the storm prediction center was highlighting our area in the day 4 5 outlook. I don’t remember the last time the storm prediction center highlighted our area yesterday in their 7 day outlook and today their 6 day outlook.

    1. Either way, it is quite remarkable because the SPC is usually quite
      conservative and doesn’t post that unless there is considerable basis for it.
      It will be interesting to see what they have to say tomorrow.

  24. Will the next run of the EURO model stay consistent with the previous runs which the storm prediction center mentions in this latest discussion along with the support from some ensemble members.

    1. Nice JJ. Many thanks for posting.

      Interesting that the winds now appear to be lining up as unidirectional, but at the same time he says: Stronger winds will lead to stronger wind shear in the atmosphere, which can lead for damaging winds and the threat for tornadoes, depending on the exact setup of storms.

      Am I missing something here? I thought we needed veering wind with height
      for tornadoes?????? Hmmm

      1. I’ll check much more as we get closer, but right now, looking
        at 18Z GFS, winds at 850MB, 700MB and 500MB, ALL appear
        to be Westerly to a WSW. The surface winds are at SW.

        That is not a whole lot of veering with height (enough?) , so perhaps there won’t be much of a tornado threat and the main threat will be Damaging straight line winds and hail???????

        We’ll keep watching.

  27. Regarding yesterday’s AccuWeather Trivia quiz answer of 10 is totally incorrect.

    Boston officially averages 13 90+ degree days. Boy, I wish there were “only” 10 of these crappy days…UGH!!

    Joe Joyce needs to do better research. I assume the NWS website has it.

    1. I chose the answer of C = 15 only because that was the closest to the correct answer. 10 days of 90+ temps would actaually make it a relatively cool summer around here…much like 35-40″ of snow would make it a relatively “easy” winter.

  28. Vicki… To address your comment waaaaay above. “Heat lightning” is simply lightning from storms that are too far away (near or below the horizon visibly) to be able to hear the thunder. Since thunderstorms would be more common on a very warm summer night after a hot day, somewhere, the flashes became associated with hot weather and the term “heat lightning” was born.

    1. The definition most had of heat lightening in my era was that it had nothing to do with a storm and was simply caused by it being too hot. Your explanation is of course correct

    2. TK I would like to hear your thoughts on the link I posted from WXedge and if you agree or disagree what he is saying with regards to the severe potential on Saturday and have your thoughts changed since yesterday.
      Thanks!

  29. I just saw ocean temps and they r getting balmy, I saw 80 degree water temps up to the Virginia coast already and the 70 degree water is almost up to Boston

    1. It sure does seem that way. It also seems that with the warm ocean temps comes the bacteria and annoying little bugs. Not to mention the ability to sustain a hurricanes strength.

    1. Water temps continue warming on average until mid Aug then plateau, could we see 75 degree water in Boston harbor, it’s possible!!

  33. The day of the Springfield tornado there was a 5% chance of a tornado and a slight risk for severe weather. To me 2% chance is low 5% is elevated when talking about tornadoes.

    1. There’s beginning to be much hype. This could be good, because hype often means NOTHING happens. We shall see. We certainly have a watcher on our
      hands, if nothing else. Should be interesting.

  34. From TWC:

    Outbreak Ahead?

    A more organized and significant episode of severe thunderstorms may evolve by Thursday and Friday across parts of the Great Lakes and Northeast as a cold front and attendant upper-level dip in the jet stream cuts into mid-July heat and humidity.

    One or more squall lines with damaging winds may develop in this region during the period.

    While it is too early to predict a derecho, July is the #2 month for derechos (behind May) and the Great Lakes and Northeast are common targets for derechos in mid-summer.

    Then this map?????

    http://i.imwx.com/images/maps/truvu/map_specnews06_ltst_4namus_enus_320x180.jpg

  36. A derecho for those who do not know is a widespread damaging wind event. There was one last year that started in parts of the midwest and traveled all the way to the Mid Atlantic region leaving a lot of people without a power for several days with temps in the well up in the 90s.

    1. Ok so I don’t feel 75% better. I wouldn’t like to be in a house on stilts (or whatever they are called) for that either.

  39. JimmyJames / OS … Regarding the WxEdge article. I generally agree with what is there. My concern is that the entire thing may evolve faster than the models currently have timed, which may make things less conducive for severe weather because of earlier-in-the-day timing. Of course, it’s still way off, so we’ll see.

    The writer there, Eric, is a FB friend of mine, and also knows our friend Scott. 🙂

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