Classic Summertime

267 Comments

12:21AM

There is nothing unusual going on folks. It’s summertime, and it’s hot. We get into this pattern. And despite the media making it sound like we’re in the midst of another majorly  unusual event, it’s quite common to be hot in the summer. A little Weather 101. But enough editorializing – let’s get to the weather itself. Truthfully, it has not been that brutal. Dew points, though reaching and exceeding 70 in a few locations, have spent much of the time in the 60s during this stretch. Humid? Sure. Not super oppressive. And high temperatures have been in the lower 90s for the most part, with sea breeze cooling near the beaches. Some heat for sure, but not excessive. That said, we may be heading for the worst of it in terms of humidity and heat as surface winds turn more west and southwest Thursday and Friday, after a Wednesday that is similar to the early part of the week – lighter winds with a sea breeze. What has been missing is the haze that we’ve often seen during hot summer patterns. Part of the reason is we are seeing results of more strict laws for emissions. But we also need to get into air that has stagnated and collected pollutants over several days, and we’ve been getting our air from around the edges of the high pressure ridge, with pushes of clean air from eastern Canada and sometimes off the ocean. We will probably see an increase in haze by Thursday and Friday as some of the “dirty” air in stagnating under high pressure in the Midwest makes it into New England.

But what about thunderstorm threats? We have had minimal activity so far in this stretch, with only a few pop up downpours here and there. There will be some changes ahead, and the storm threat should take place something like this:

Wednesday: Focus points will be a weak sea breeze boundary just inland from the NH and eastern MA seacoasts, and also a possible second boundary over areas inland from the South Coast in southern MA and parts of RI created by a more southerly wind there. Also a trigger from a weak disturbance passing north of the region may enhance development. Not looking for widespread activity,  just isolated to widely scattered, with no real threat of severe storms.

Thursday: In the heat and humidity a pop up storm is possible anywhere during the afternoon and evening, but a disturbance coming along from the west northwest may develop a cluster or line of storms somewhere in western New England that may then cut across parts of MA and RI (favoring areas southwest to south of Boston), late afternoon or early evening.

Friday: Isolated storms may pop up in the heat, but more stable air aloft may limit development. Will keep an eye on this in case it is less stable than I currently expect.

Saturday: This day carries the most potential with the arrival of a cold front into a hot, humid airmass, along with much greater instability and parameters for possible severe weather. However, it will be all in the timing, and will also depend on whether or not any secondary trough lines form (little disturbances that often accompany passing fronts). These troughs can fire storms earlier than expected, but sometimes will limit later development. There is also a chance that the cold front itself arrives sooner than the computer models currently show. This would also  limit severe storm development, and end the threat earlier. There is enough potential and enough uncertainty to stress that this potential weather situation needs to be closely monitored.

Since I am leaning toward a quicker frontal passage, I will be optimistic for Sunday and the start of next week, with less heat and humidity and generally fair weather at least Sunday and Monday. A disturbance may bring unsettled weather to the region Tuesday, but this is way out in the future and timing may change.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated to widely scattered afternoon showers/thunderstorms. Highs 90-95 except upper 70s to 80s coastal areas.  Wind variable to S 5-15 MPH with coastal sea breezes.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Any isolated showers end early. Lows upper 60s to middle 70s. Wind S to SW up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy and hazy. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms and a chance of a cluster of storms mainly west and south of Boston late afternoon or early evening hours. Highs 91-96 except 80s to around 90 coastal areas that face south. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny and hazy. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms. Highs 94-99 except cooler in a few areas of the South Coast through Cape Cod. Wind SW to W 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy.  Thunderstorms, some strong. Low 74. High 91.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 63. High 83.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 82.

TUESDAY: Increasing clouds. PM showers. Low 63. High 80.

267 thoughts on “Classic Summertime”

  1. Thanks TK! Love the title on this one, and your short editorial at the beginning! 🙂

    I thought I’d see a rainbow today, given the rain, and the sun, and all that in my town, but I never saw one today. All well! I enjoyed the warm summer rain at least 😀

  2. TK, thanks for the update. Feel like the Thurs-Sat weather looking volatile enough for now-casting only with all of us looking at radar minute by minute.

  3. Barely caught BB this am and I thought I saw the words “nasty storms” for Saturday on his 7 day.

    Didn’t really catch his forecast at all.

  4. SPC has us in Severe Threat for the 4th day in a row!

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/day48prob.gif

    NAM Capes for 18Z Saturday:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013071706&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=084

    GFS Capes for 21Z Saturday:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013071706&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=087

    GFS LIFTED Index for 21Z Saturday:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013071706&time=INSTANT&var=LFTX&hour=087

    1. SREF Helicity for 18Z Saturday. Next run will get us to prime time.

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2013071703/SREF_1KMHEL_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f087.gif

      Bulk Shear:

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2013071703/SREF_0-6KMSHR_SSB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f087.gif

      Significant Severe Parameter:

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2013071703/SREF_CB_MEDIAN_MXMN__f087.gif

      Signifcant tornado parameter:

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2013071703/SREF_SIGTOR_MEDIAN_MXMN__f087.gif

  5. NWS at Taunton seems to have backed off some on the threat for Saturday.
    Hmmm

    Will continue to watch. We shall see.

    1. Are you on the south shore? No haze this far in – but not a cloud in the sky.

      At this point I do not think anyone wants to see more of this weather. I’m not saying people do not want to see more summer weather but this is now to the point that it is very dangerous.

      1. A little hazy at work this morning in Walpole. I guess I’d be considered south shore/metro west/south coast? LOL. Not really ever sure what this area is considered.

    2. Yup. Just another great summer day. Tk said it perfectly this is typical normal summertime weather. It should be hot in the summer and cold in the winter, I’m loving it. Of course my jeans already soaked but who cares.

  7. When we average 10-15 90+ days per summer and I’m at 15 days of 90+ degrees already, how can this be a classic summer? This is like saying during a normal winter that in mid Jan and if we had 15 50+ degree days, it’s not normal, it may not be a huge anamoly but its not normal. Everyone I talk to says they never thought they’d see so many 90+ temps, good day all

    2. Charlie,

      Actually, it is perfectly normal. If the average is 13 days of 90+ and your’e
      at 15, how is that not normal. It may be a bit above average, but still perfectly normal.

      The average high temperature at Boston for July is 82, yet we get many days of 90+. That does not make abnormal. May be above average, but NOT
      abnormal.

      Let’s again say the average number of days of 90+ is 13. Well in statistics
      there is something called a standard deviation. I’m not sure what the
      standard deviation is for 90+ days, but for our discussion let’s say it is 5.
      Then that would mean for 68% of the years the number of days of 90+ would
      range from 8 to 18 and 95% of the years it would range from 3 to 23.

      Even in the 68% of years, 1/2 of them would be “above” average, yet
      perfectly normal. 😀

      1. Thank you and well said. I do feel bad for your wife but It’s just that time of year. Fall will be here before you know it. Enjoy the day Oldsalty.

      2. But by saturday we will be at 19 and that is taking into account the temp only…..do we know the average DP. It seems to me that has to be factored in. And if we are seeing ocean temps in POrtland ME above what even you remember, doesn’t that mean something isn’t normal???

    3. It’s not classic and we all know it….any more than extreme periods of cold are classic winter

      1. I respectfully disagree. If we did not have 90 degree days and say no heatwaves in the summer that would not be normal. Just like the last couple of winters it has been unusualy mild , that’s not normal.

        1. I totally agree heat waves and 90 degree days are summer. I will need some actual data to show this is not abnormal and to me that means not only temps but dew points. We’ve only had AC for about 10 years and that is not a barometer. But we have never even come close to running it as consistently.

          Either way – it has become extremely dangerous so for that reason I will be very happy to see it break. I’d say the very same in winter.

      2. A classic winter in my eyes would be cold and snowy conditions all winter as that’s what winter is all about.

  8. Thanks TK for the update blog and thanks Old Salty for posting the maps.
    4th day in a row we have been highlighted by the SPC. There is consitency here. NWS out of Taunton may have backed off on the Saturday threat but the NWS out of of Upton, NY has not.
    APPROACHING THEN PASSING COLD FRONT…COUPLED WITH PASSING 700 HPA
    SHORTWAVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING…WARRANT LIKELY POPS SATURDAY
    AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM NW TO SE. NOTING THE REGION IS FORECAST TO BE
    IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A 105+ KT 300 HPA JET…FORECAST CAPE
    VALUES RANGING FROM 1000-2500 J/KG IN THE ECMWF TO 1500-4500 J/KG OF
    CAPE IN THE GFS…LIFTED INDICES -4 TO -8…AND THE REGION BEING IN
    A 20-30 KT LOW LEVEL AND 35-45 KT 500 HPA JET…THERE IS THE
    POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MAINLY
    FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE THE MAIN
    THREAT IS GUSTY WINDS FROM BOWING SEGMENTS…COULD SEE SOME
    ISOLATED SUPER CELLS AHEAD OF THE BOWING SEGMENTS…ESPECIALLY IF
    THE HIGHER CAPE FORECAST BY THE GFS IS ACHIEVED.

  10. From the Oxford Dictionary, definition of the word “classic”

    As an adjective…
    – judged over a period of time to be of the highest quality and outstanding of its kind:
    – remarkably and instructively typical:
    As a noun…
    – a thing that is memorable and a very good example of its kind; recognized by all as the standard:

    1. Good def. so is this standard? Or above standard. Hehe. We have the potential but is it probable 🙂

      1. I remember writing a long paper on this in an English class in college. We had to write about something that we thought was a “classic.” I had the most difficult time with this topic and so did everyone else. The problem is, people will say, as we are finding now in this discussion, there are differing opinions on a “classic” summer, and winter is thrown in there too. That differing of opinion goes against the definition of classic. A classic should be recognized by all as the same thing, a standard as to which we all see something and its importance.

        1. So if I think of this weather as a classic New England summer and you dont, than is it really a classic? Hmmmm….def something to chew on 🙂

          1. I started to say that and thought it sounded snooty:). Very interesting. Both John and I made statements based on feeling and not fact. Mine was somewhat based on emotion too as I now know of three having heat stroke.

            We also have to consider time frame. The 13 days is for the year. I know certain months are not included but…

            1. Im just saying this is not unusual weather like others have said. This is not big news folks it is the heart of summer.

              1. John – I dont agree that it isn’t unusual. However, you and I are basing it on absolutely no facts so in truth neither of us can make the statement with any credibility.

                1. I can tell you for a fact its not breaking any records. There is an article on bostonchannel.com on this, can somebody get that here. I have not read all of it.

                2. not good enough John. You need to factor in a whole bunch of facts. And records IMHO don’t mean much if it’s a one shot deal. Only if the record is multiple years of the same. We are talking the norm or standard and not an off shoot.

                3. BTW – that comment goes for both you and me cause at the moment, as I said, neither of us is using anything other than what we think and that’s not worth a whole lot either 🙂 I dont mean we can’t think but I suspect you get that !!

          2. Ace I have to explain my comment as I thought about it on the way home from the doctor and didn’t think it came out well at all. I read your post as you intended (I believe) so started to say that if I don’t agree then it doesn’t fit the parameter of all. Then I thought….well that sounds a bit snooty. I did NOT mean to make it sound as if your comment was snooty (silly word huh?) – just mine!

  11. To add to your point OS about a standard deviation, if the number goes above that standard deviation, it is considered to be statistically significant. If we are at 13-15 days so far (depending on your location), we have already hit the norm and summer is only 1/3 of the way through. The better stats to look at, if they are even available, is normal 90+ days through our current date. Stats aside, to me, to have hit the norm already, is significant.

    1. Speaking of significant were going to have 19 days 90 or above for inland CT when this heat wave ends Saturday. The normal for an entire season is 15.
      Now if July ended today it would the warmest month on record all time for inland CT which is very impressive. Will see
      what happens as we go through the second half of the month.

  12. Well, yesterday was classic Cape Breton weather. 🙂 This far northeast, the ridge buckled a bit and it allowed a cold front to swing through. The wind howled from the northeast, right off the Labrador Current and the temps, in spite of bright sun, slowly fell during the afternoon. At 8:30pm last night, the temp was 57F and the dewpoint was 33F !! A high must have come overhead late last evening, the wind went calm and it briefly radiated into the upper 40s !!

    Return flow of SW wind has kicked in this morning and with hazy skies, the temps are soaring quickly, already back towards the low 70s, headed for 82F.

    Enjoy following the posts regarding the late week severe weather down there and the idea of what is classic summer. I will say this, after being up here for a couple weeks and seeing all the undisturbed land, (very little pavement, etc), its hard for me to believe that as humans continue to turn the landscape towards more and more heat absorbing materials/colors and the CO2 levels continue to rise, that we aren’t slowly warming things up over time.

    1. Thanks for the report Tom. That would feel sooo nice right now, almost chilly! Isnt it so nice to be in an area of undisturbed and undeveloped land? The feel and smell of the air is so fresh and clean.

      1. It is !

        On an aside, the number of wind farms up here is increasing with each trip we take. I like them, so, I love the look of 12-15 large turbines, rotating in synch on the distant horizon. There’s one I can see from the campground we are on, located on the cliffs overlooking the Atlantic Ocean.

  14. http://www.linganbuilders.ca/

    Lets see if the photo posts. This is where we are, town you see in the background is New Waterford on Cape Breton Island, Nova Scotia. It developed when the coal mines were opened, however, the mines are closed now, so they are in transition trying to find other economical means os sustainability. Many head west to the oil sand field of western Canada.

    1. Saw so many of these while traveling out to Nebraska earlier this summer. Most were in Illinois and Iowa.

    1. There in that 100 – 200 range and even higher just over the boarder in Canada.
      TK mentioned he is seeing signs early of something similar to July 10, 1989 the day of the northeastern tornado outbreak where
      17 tornadoes touched down that day one of those went through my town in CT. When TK says something like that it gets my
      attention.

  16. Yes but I’m only suppose to have 6 or 7 90+ degrees by this time, and by the end of week have about 19 or 20 days over 90 degrees and not even be out of July, again we only average 13 days for the entire summer wouldn’t this put us on track for a much above average? lets say we get 10 more 90+ degrees in Aug and have 30 days at 90+ degrees by the end of Aug?

    2. Yes, it will be well above average, but NOT statistically out of the norm.

      If we ended up with 35 or 40 days, then it would be significant and out of
      the norm.

          1. Well that explains why you open your pool so early. You declare summer to be over in mid-August. 🙂

  17. Looking at more SREF severe parameter data, it looks like even Friday could
    be very interesting.

    1. Old Salty the link you posted of the GFS a little earlier still has that lift index of -8 in a good part of SNE. I am hoping that
      number comes down since a -8 is an indication of how unstable this atmosphere is and if the trigger could come through at
      peak heating there could be some big thunderstorms.

  18. Tom love your post and I felt my entire body just relax and sighhhh as I read it. I agree about building more and more. Mac said the same the other day as we drove by several new developments. And we both also enjoy the wind turbines. Something is very peaceful about them. Thanks for including us on your trip!!!

  21. That is going in the right direction and better than -8 the GFS was showing. Still though with those lift index’s you could get some good size thunderstorms.

    1. The 12Z GFS is running. We’ll see what the new Lifted Index values are for
      that model. Will check SREF again later when its next run comes out.

    2. Good size thunderstorms are doable. We are very tentatively thinking of postponing our trip south until the line as gone through if in fact it is as bad as suspected.

  25. I predict by Sept we will have around 30-35 90+ degree days, today makes it #17 of 90+ degrees phewww!! 🙂

    1. Charlie I bet at your location your numbers for 90 degree days would be closer to the # at Providence. I bet they have a couple more on the average each year than Boston (due to Boston’s ocean influence).

    1. Good question. Not a holder of great SST stats, but it’s something to check on. I’m betting yes.

  28. Vicki could you post that article here from the above address on heatwave. I don’t know how to.

    1. I’m not sure what you mean. If it’s the link I posted it’s incredibly long and full of graphs. If it’s something someone else posted, I’ll try.

  29. Hey Hadi, did u call into Gresh & Zo on the Sports hub around noon today? I got in the car at lunch and someone from Boston was talking about RGIII but i didnt catch the name 🙂

  30. Temps in the area took a little jump, now reaching into the mid 90’s. Don’t know if a sea breeze will happen today in Boston.

    1. GFS Surface winds at 21Z Saturday:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013071712&time=INSTANT&var=GRDM&hour=081

      925MB Euro chart from Wundermap:

      http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?lat=42.31590&lon=-70.15502&zoom=4&type=terrain&units=english&tl.play=0&tl.spd=2&viewportstart=now-3472&viewportend=now%2B128&groupSevere=1&groupHurricane=1&groupFire=1&groupCamsPhotos=1&groupRealEstate=1&eyedropper=0&extremes=0&fault=0&favs=0&femaflood=0&fire=0&firewfas=0&fissures=0&fronts=0&hurrevac=0&hur=0&labels=0&lightning=0&livesurge=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=ECMWF&mm.type=925&mm.hour=81&mm.opa=100&ndfd=0&rad=0&dir=1&dir.mode=driving&sst=0&sat=0&seismicrisk=0&svr=0&ski=0&snowfall=0&stormreports=0&tor=0&tfk=0&tsunami=0&riv=0&wxsn=0&cams=0&pix=0

      GFS 850MB Winds

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013071712&var=TMPHGTGRD_850mb&hour=081

      GFS 500MB winds

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013071712&var=VRTHGTGRD_500mb&hour=081

      1. Although the 500MB winds are not WNW or NW as advertised,
        the 925 and 850 mb winds are W while surface are SSW to SW.

        With instability as indicated by Capes and Lifted Index, tornadoes
        cannot be ruled out.

    2. OS, how do these numbers compare to other times we’ve had severe weather? Are they glaringly higher than say a day where we just get a line of severe storms with some wind, maybe some small hail, downpours, and vivid lightning? Or is this something more unusual, more severe.

      1. Im not as versed in this type of weather as say during the winter when I can tell right away if something is showing signs of being really bad. I have something to compare it to.

      2. Through the ROOF higher!!!

        As JJ said, typical SEVERE weather around here has lifted
        indices of between -2 and at most -5.

        1. Oh wow! Ok, now I see the cause for concern. Its like that one storm we had last winter where the NAM was forecasting those ridiculous amounts of snow and we were all like, nahhh that will never happen, the NAM is overdone…then BOOM!

          1. Well, that is our concern. Can’t say for sure anything bad will happen, but the “potential” is certainly there. For days I’ve been concerned about the possibility of tornadoes.

            Mets are staying quiet about it, although TK
            gave some hints.

            NOT saying there will be tornadoes, but it
            is a very distinct possibility. Even if not, we could have some very very serious thunderstorms with extremely powerful
            straight line winds that could cause considerable
            damage.

            Just no way to know for sure at this point, but
            when the SPC places us in a 30%+ risk of severe weather 4 days in a row, it is time to take Notice.

            Buckle up and enjoy.

                1. Old Salty thanks for posting the other links to the 12z GFS run. The -8 area expands
                  quite about from the hour 60-81. This model is starting to show some consistency.

  36. JJ,

    I’m beginning to get VERY worried. I know we’re still about 3 days out, but
    the models have been CONSISTENT and so has the SPC!

    SREF lifted indices are still around or about -5, still potent, but NOT the -8
    the GFS is advertising. I WISH we could have a look at the EURO lifted indices
    to see IF the GFS is out to lunch or not. The Euro Capes are up there.

    12Z Euro Capes in the range of 2000 to 3500 joules.
    12Z Sheat is off the charts.

    TK do you have access to those numbers? You must. What do they show?

  38. I’m sickened by the Rolling Stones magazine but just read there selling record amounts of the magazine throughout country.

      1. Charlie,

        I, too, do not understand WHY they would do that.
        AND worse still, WHY would anyone purchase this issue
        of that magazine???

        Just makes no sense at all.

          1. I agree. Trying to make the kid look like a rock star.

            It reminds of back in the late 60s and early 70s when kids (my age at the time too) were running around with Che Guevara shirts on.

  39. The last time we saw lift index up to -8 was the day of the Springfield tornado back on June 1, 2011. CAPE that day got close to the 4,000 area which is an incredible amount of instability.
    Reading the NWS out of Upton, NY they were saying the 0z EURO was between 1,000 – 2,500 and the 0z GFS was between 2,000 and 4,500. From what you just posted Old Salty the latest run of EURO has come up with those Joules Kilogram Values.

    1. Yes, Parts of CT had values up to 3500. I tried a link from Wundermap, but
      they don’t usually go very well.

  40. Hi all! I haven’t posted here since the winter. It looks like a busy day saturday. Old salty do you remmeber the severe weather we had july 18 of lasy year?? My town had pea size hail in reading while stoneham next town over had golfball s8ze hail. Do you remember if the set up for this saturday is the same?

    1. I remember one day with some particularly potent storms with multiple
      lightening strikes. Don’t know if it was the same day, but sure could have been.

  42. From Upton, NY Best forcing for storms north of NYC area with latest guidance.
    BY SATURDAY…THE COLD FRONT COUPLED WITH H5 HEIGHT FALLS
    SHOULD HELP TO DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
    AND EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
    MODERATE INSTABILITY FORECAST. LOOKING AT LATEST GUIDANCE INCLUDING
    LATEST SREF DATA…THE 0-6KM SHEAR IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE…ONLY 20
    TO 25 KTS. ALSO…THE BEST FORCING IS FORECAST TO BE NORTH OF OUR
    CWA. IF STORM ORGANIZATION DOES OCCUR…DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
    MAIN THREAT BUT CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS
    LOW. HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES. MORE
    CLOUDS WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN FRIDAY…IN THE UPPER
    80S AND LOWER 90S

    1. See below… With all of the factors in place (not to mention HIGH relative humidity), It’s a disaster waiting to happen. Maybe they just don’t want to alarm the public. They’ll wait until Saturday NOON when the SPC issues a tornado watch and then they’ll update and scare the bleepity bleep out of people. Just my crappy 2 cents and a rant as well.

  44. And finally from NWS at Taunton:

    DAY 4-8 SPC OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO SHOW SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER…FOR SATURDAY. WE HAVE BEEN
    CONSISTENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK FOR SATURDAY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SUSTAINING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH DEEP-LAYER ASCENT…DECENT MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES…AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE UPPER JET. WARM-SECTOR DEVELOPS AND DESTABILIZES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MAIN THREATS WILL BE STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS…ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN AND
    POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLOODING /PWATS UP TO 2 INCHES/. SMALL HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN CONSISTENT SLIGHT RISK OUTLOOK WILL USE ENHANCED WORDING FOR STRONG WINDS…SMALL HAIL…AND HEAVY RAIN IN TSTMS.

    So, there you have it. From the NWS no big deal.
    Strong winds and small Hail. Big Woof!!!

    Now, given what I see, I don’t see it the same way. But then, who the
    bleep am I?

    I refer to TK.

    TK, do you think the NWS is downplaying this event? OR are you now in agreement?

    I see High Cape values, Lifted indices through the roof, Plenty of lift, some veering
    of the winds with height. Sounds lethal to me. What Am I missing? Not enough Shear? I dunno and I am fast losing faith with our NWS.

    1. I hope they would not downplay something that could be as serious as what appears.

      OS as always thank you for the links. JJ thank you also very much.

    2. I am with you Old Salty and I would like to hear TK’s take. It seems when severe weather is downplayed we get a lot more than forecasted and vice versa.

    3. I can’t disagree that much at the moment. But I don’t think the event is really being downplayed. They are using the term “severe” in their zone forecast package as well as their discussion. I think they feel the primary threat to meet severe criteria is the damaging wind (in excess of 58 MPH) versus the hail. This setup is conducive to powerful straight line winds and microbursts.

      They are in range of good analysis. Anything before today was speculative at best. I’d rather see them start conservatively and strengthen the wording if necessary. I still feel there is a chance the frontal passage is being progged too slowly.

      1. 😀

        Not for nothing and no disrespect to anyone, but it is quite rare
        to see a thunderstorm with winds of >= 58 mph. Quite frankly, in my entire life, I have never witnessed one. I’ve witnessed storms with excessive, vicious lightening, but not the big winds. Perhaps 40 to 50 Mph, but never higher. Most severe thunderstorm watches result in fairly routine thunderstorms. Sure there are exceptions and when there are, wow, what a mess!

        I understand why the watches are issued.

        I suppose they are being conservative.

        I’m guessing their language WILL get stronger as we get closer.

        Just my humble opinion.

        Happy evening all. 😀

  45. From TWC.
    Saturday, July 20

    Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds in OH, southeast MI, eastern IN, northern KY, WY, northern VA, northern MD, northern DE, PA, central and nrorthern NJ, NY, CT, RI, ME, VT, NH, and ME. TOR:CON – 3

    2. One of those MEs is meant to be MA. 😀 they is left over from last night.
      Has NOT been updated at all OR if it was, they didn’t catch the typo. 😀

  46. Todd is broadcasting live at the sand sculptures at Revere Beach.

    TK – Did you go there this year? 🙂

    1. It is ongoing now. The actual festival is Friday through Sunday (with a planned fireworks display Saturday night). I will be there for the beach in the afternoon, Kelly’s for dinner, and fireworks at night on Saturday, weather-permitting.

      I’m in touch with the pyrotechnics company that is doing the fireworks show so I can update them on weather and find out if they are using the next day is the rain-date, in the worst case scenario.

      1. Ahhhhh memories. Wonder if we can see the fireworks up the coast from Hum. I know you’ll love it TK

          1. I know. We could see the tall ships come into Marblehead by standing on our deck years ago. We even could see the flyover

    2. That really surprises me North. The Sudbury river is way down. The course where mac plays had two holes shut for flooding along the Sudbury river two or three weeks ago and now two of the ponds are nearly dry and they are worrying about the fishes etc in them.

  51. The following is from the SPC. Notice Categorical Risk: Slight
    for days 1, 2 and 3. But notice Severe for day 4!!!!

    Day 1 Convective Outlook
    – Categorical Risk: Slight
    – Issued: 07/17/2013 at 1946Z

    Day 2 Convective Outlook
    – Categorical Risk: Slight
    – Issued: 07/17/2013 at 1734Z

    Day 3 Convective Outlook
    – Categorical Risk: Slight
    – Issued: 07/17/2013 at 0731Z

    Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
    – Categorical Risk: Severe
    – Issued: 07/17/2013 at 0859Z

  52. Tomorrow that should say slight risk for our area. I would be surprised considering how consistent the SPC has been highlighting our area that we would not be placed under a slight risk.
    The GFS has been pretty consistent for a couple runs now with the Lift Index’s.

    1. Can you remember what it would indicate for day 4-8 for chance of severe.
      Seems to me it would say Slight, but I can’t remember for sure.

      So, I am most interested to see what it says tomorrow for day 3.

      1. Old Salty when it goes beyond the day 3 outlook and an area is highlighted it will say severe. Tomorrow will be
        in the day 3 outlook so it should say slight.

        1. Thanks JJ, I couldn’t remember.

          I think that shows some inconsistency.

          It should say “slight” then and not severe.
          Perhaps someday I’ll send a letter to the SPC. 😀 😀

  53. I’m getting a little more confident that the front’s timing may be fast enough that the “peak” storms come through earlier in max heating rather than near the end of it. This may have a significant impact on the severity of these storms (speaking in a general sense for the region as a whole).

    1. Is it correct to assume that that the increased speed (in terms of timing) means less severity? Or am I in the camp of wishful thinking.

      1. If it’s fast enough, storms have less time to fire in a completely destabilized atmosphere.

        1. I can’t wait as I am sure OS wife can’t wait for this heat and humidity to go away. I know there are some that love it, like my wife but I do not like it at all!

            1. I tolerate it fine too, just don’t like it. You should plan a day out with your wife Sunday!

    3. Tk what are the chances of the 4:00 sox game being rain free. My son and I going to first sox/Yankees game and he is so excited, I don’t want him to be let down as he has been waiting since winter.

      1. Right now, I will still go 60/40 not in your favor, but I’m still optimistic any delay would not be extremely long.

    4. According to the NAM, main activity comes through between 18Z and 21 Z or
      about 2PM to 5PM. What does the Euro indicate? A few hours earlier?

      Looking at the 12Z Euro looks to be a tad sooner, 17Z to 20Z or so.

      Could spare us.

      1. Tad sooner would be great for us boys. So is thing like in and out to usher out the hot air and bring in relief, you know quick hitter.

        1. Exactly right. An event like that almost has to be now-casted. But still can pick out some trends.

  54. Hopefully that front speeds up and does not come through during the peak heating of the day.

  55. To me this is classic summer weather because as far as I can remember the summer has varied in humidity, some days hotter than others, which showers every so often. Wet pavement on a hot day, the smell of a burning punk/BBQ/burning wood, the sound of cicadas, and the feeling of getting misted by a hose that is being used to water flowers and the ground all scream classic summer to me. And thus far, the weather patterns this summer are familiar to me and remind me how great summer really is. Warm rain is my prime example, because it makes me so happy and reminds me of my childhood.

    1. You explained it perfectly…
      …and you experienced the wet pavement, the punk, the burning wood, and the hose mist today, didn’t you? 😛

      1. Burning punk. Ok I’m old so bear with me. Is that the brown sticks we used to burn? Emily as always I love your descriptions. Unfortunately, I tolerate it ok for quite a while but its taking its toll now. ANSI get really frustrated when I don’t feel 100%. So I thank you for bringing back the wonderful memories. Keeps things in perspective doesn’t it 🙂 🙂

        1. The punk is indeed that brown stick that burns with a glowing tip, comes in handy for lighting fireworks (which by the way are illegal in MA – lol), looks like incense, smells like summer. 🙂

          1. Oh my I can smell it now. What a wonderful memory. And where can you buy it. My brother and I would hold it in our mouth and pretend we were smoking. Before smoking was known to be bad of course.

            I’d love to have some for the beach ….for the memories.

            1. Ok now I’m having happy memory tears. And mac is looking at me out of the corner of his eye but doesn’t dare say anything 🙂

              1. One of these days he’s gonna say: “That Woods Hill thing again?!” … I used to do the pretend smoking thing as well. Or imitate The Penguin from the Batman TV series. 😉

                I got these punks in NH at one of the fireworks outlets. Sometimes I drop in there on the way home from Hampton Beach!

                2. hahahaha – I think he knows!!! but you are correct.

                  Funny how kids all do the same thing. It is a memory I would have totally forgotten had Emily not mentioned it.

  57. I came across an interesting map:

    http://weather.unisys.com/nam/nam_misc.php?inv=0&plot=ehi

    Energy Helicity Index (or EHI)

    An index that incorporates vertical shear and instability , designed for the purpose of forecasting supercell thunderstorms. It is related directly to storm-relative helicity in the lowest 2 km (SRH, in m2/s2) and CAPE (in j/kg) as follows: EHI = (CAPE x SRH)/160,000. Thus, higher values indicate unstable conditions and/or strong vertical shear. Since both parameters are important for severe weather development, higher values generally indicate a greater potential for severe weather. Values of 1 or more are said to indicate a heightened threat of tornadoes ; values of 5 or more are rarely observed, and are said to indicate potential for violent tornadoes. However, there are no magic numbers or critical threshold values to confirm or predict the occurrence of tornadoes of a particular intensity.

    Increased values “appear” to be headed our way.

    Will continue to watch this.

  58. The ingredients are there for severe storms. The question is when does this front come through and hopefully not during the peak heating of the day. This is shaping up to be a voltile atmosphere and all you need is the front to come through during the peak heating of the day to provide the lift and bam!

      1. Yep. Come down to the ground there and away from the water in Boston. Or at least have two stations in each city.

  60. Amazing storm complex going through central NH about to enter southern Maine. My friend drove up to Laconia to wait for the storms and is being treated to an incredible lightning show.

  61. Awakened by wind driven, steady rain. Now, this is more like it !!

    Looking on ch 4 site, think BB has 96,99F today (Thursday) and tomorrow, as TK has above. Wow, it looks like its 75-80 at 5am !!!! Good luck !

  62. Storm Prediction Center does have our area in a slight risk for severe weather on Saturday. Biggest threats look to be heavy rainfall, vivid lightning, and strong winds.
    Breakdown:
    Hail – low threat
    Winds – Elevated threat
    Tornado – low threat
    Will see if that changes

    1. Here’s the map:

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730.gif

      Btw, if we look at the map for today regarding tornado risk, we see
      an area of 5%. Will that translate Southeastward with the Severe threat?

      http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

      06Z GFS Lifted Index for 21Z Saturday:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013071806&time=INSTANT&var=LFTX&hour=063

      and surface Capes:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013071806&time=INSTANT&var=CAPE&hour=063

          1. From NWS:

            * SEVERE WEATHER ANTICIPATED FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT

            * SHOWERS LINGERING SUNDAY…OTHERWISE TURNING COOL/DRY INTO TUESDAY

            * WARMER WITH THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK

      2. Looking At SREF tornado parameters….they look to dwindle as the whole system move SE. I think tornadoes will NOT be a risk for us.

  63. Boy this morning is about the worst in the house. My wife who never complains said it’s really nasty. Can’t wait for Sunday!!

  64. Right now, it looks like main activity Saturday will come during maximum heating of the day.

  65. TWC has REDUCED its TORCON rating for Saturday:

    Saturday, July 20

    Severe thunderstorms with damaging winds in southern IL, IN, northern KY, OH, northern WV, northern MD, northern DE, PA, central and northern NJ, NY, CT, RI, MA, VT, NH, and ME. TOR:CON – 2

    1. This is some GOOD news!!!

      Now the question is: How bad will the Thunderstorms be on Saturday???

  66. Old Salty the GFS has been very consistent the last several runs with those lift index running high. Looking at the data my concern is the POSSIBILITY of damaging winds with this front coming through which is why I am going elevated risk for now but that may need an upgrade. I still would not rule out a brief spin up especially if a kink develops in the line which is why I went with a low threat for a tornado.

  67. I think the heat is being somewhat overshadowed by the potential severe weather on saturday. I know TK said it hasnt been that bad but today and tomorrow look to be the worst of it. Excessive heat warnings up throughout much of the area for dangerous heat indices up to 107 this afternoon. Make no mistakes about it, it will be dangerous to be out there today and tomorrow. Stay cool out there.

  69. Logan’s +7F from 24 hrs yesterday at this time, 85F vs yesterday’s 78F. Most places are 4F to 6F warmer as well. Wind at Logan 320 degrees, nearly NW. 100F may be in play.
    Yesterday’s high was 95F.

    1. Tom, I was just thinking the same thing. You beat me to it.
      I was walking towards the office from my car, knowing it was 8AM and
      already 86 at my house and it really felt the Hottest yet this year to me
      (Heat and humidity combined).

      As you said, Logan was 85 at 8AM with a dew point of 72 making a heat
      index of 91 at 8AM!!!!!! Pretty impressive. AND as you also pointed out,
      the wind is from the NW, gusting to just under 20 mph. W to NW winds usually bring Boston it’s hottest weather.

      850MB temps are somewhere in the range of 18-20C, which only supports
      something like low to mid 90s. BUT models can be wrong and what if the
      actual 850mb temp is 21 or 22C? I was thinking same as you, Boston makes
      a run at 100 degrees today. The watch is on. 😀

    1. Stay cool Hadi. See my post above.
      That makes 3 of us saying a run at 100 is in the cards. 😀

    1. 9AM Boston Obs:

      Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
      (KBOS) 42.38N 71.03W

      Last Updated: Jul 18 2013, 8:54 am EDT
      Thu, 18 Jul 2013 08:54:00 -0400
      Weather: A Few Clouds
      Temperature: 88.0 °F (31.1 °C)
      Dewpoint: 71.1 °F (21.7 °C)
      Relative Humidity: 57 %
      Heat Index: 94 F (34 C)
      Wind: North at 9.2 MPH (8 KT)
      Visibility: 10.00 miles
      MSL Pressure: 1015.6 mb
      Altimeter: 29.99 in Hg

    1. Certainly Saturday will be interesting.

      I’m no where near as concerned about tornadoes as I previously was.
      Earlier on it looked pretty ominous.

      However, even if the tornado threat is way down, the thunderstorms
      “Could” be violent with seriously damaging winds. We’ll just have to watch
      closely and see.

  73. Straight wind damage can cause just as much if not more damage than a weak tornado. The Lift Index’s are still up there along with the JKG’s so plenty of instability in play if that front comes through during peak heating time.

    1. JKGs. 😀

      You threw me for a moment as to what the bleep JKGs were.
      Then I quickly figured it out. You really mean the CAPEs with its
      joules per kilogram of air (J/kg). 😀 😀 😀

      Yes, indeed.

      1. From NWS at Gray, ME

        SATURDAY STILL LOOKING TO BE A BUSY SEVERE WEATHER DAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT SLICES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
        EVENING. VERY STRONG FLOW ALOFT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE NUMEROUS REPORTS OF WIND DAMAGE FROM BOWING LINE SEGMENTS IN THE HIGHLY SHEARED
        ENVIRONMENT. WILL BE ANOTHER DAY OF HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S.

        One outlet says that there is minimal shear and another says
        Highly sheared environment?

        Which is it?

        You never to know what OR who or which outlet to believe!

  74. Although today will be hot, tomorrow will be the hottest of them all. I was soaked by 8am this morning as had a lot of heavy lifting to do. Feeling good about the game Saturday.

    1. And early morning cloud debris could prevent the thermometer from reaching 100. I feel today is our best chance of 100 degrees. Someone will reach 100 today while Boston shoots up to 99!

  76. That front on Saturday doesn’t make it in here until mid-afternoon during peak heating time. Severe weather is in the cards and unfortunately someone is going to get pounded.

    1. Arod,

      Nice to see you aboard.

      I agree with you Saturday assessment. Those lifted indices are through the
      roof!

      Not sure I agree with your assessment for tomorrow. No matter it’s going
      to be HOT both days. And I do agree that someone reaches 100 today!

      1. It will most likely be played, just a question IF there will be a delay and how long the delay will be. 😀

      2. No question it gets played. It’s a line of storms that moves through–not a washout. It’s an hour delay at most.

        1. That would be good. Its our first yankee game and he has been waiting all winter. He is bouncing off the wall. I have awesome third base seats.

          1. My Last Yankee game at Fenway, I witnessed Mickey Mantel tatoo one over the wall hitting right handed! 😀

  77. WOW! Insanity.

    Boston at 8AM had a NW wind gusting to 20mph.

    Here it is at 11AM and Logan has an EAST WIND at 11 mph.

    How does that happen?

    The highest I saw was 89, so it could have touched 90 before the East wind.

    Unless it changes in a hurry, no 100 at Boston today. 😀

    1. It’s amazing, isn’t it? It’s just something that no one can predict. I still feel Boston makes a run at 98-99 degrees. However, if that wind direction doesn’t change (and I feel that it will), it will be more like 93-94.

      1. If it doesn’t change, then Boston reached it’s high somewhere between 9AM and 11AM. 😀

  78. From NWS at Taunton:

    AS FOR MAX TEMPS…
    LOGAN/BOSTON ALREADY HIT 90 DEGS AT 1015 AM! SO THE OFFICIAL HEAT
    WAVE CONTINUES

  79. The water is so warm it may force the pilgrim plant in plymouth to shut down. Only a few more degrees warmer and it will close, wow.

      1. Ace, the salt water coming into the plant is used for cooling. Regulations require that the water coming in is not to be warmer than 75degrees. The water tempature briefly topped 75.3 on Tuesday night, not good.

      1. IIRC one in CT had to close earlier but the NRC gave them the opportunity to test the water in more than one place (3 maybe?) to see if they could get it under 75. Sorta like – if it isn’t low enough where it’s supposed to be, just find a place that is low enough!

  80. If a tropical system were to ever come up the coast, it would sustain itself which would be trouble for us.

    1. Water temps are warming rapidly. Wouldn’t be surprised if Boston Harbor hit 75+ while the southcoast approached 80 degrees!

    2. This is clearly a concern. Let’s hope that any tropical systems, hurricanes anyway, stay clear of our area.

  83. Some Local Current Water temperatures:

    Buoy A0102 – Mass. Bay/Stellwagen
    (44029) 42.52N 70.57W
    Last Updated: Jul 18 2013, 12:04 pm EST
    Thu, 18 Jul 2013 12:04:00 -0500
    Temperature: 75.9 °F (24.4 °C)
    Wind: East at 6.7 MPH (5.83 KT)
    Visibility: 1.60 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1015.4 mb
    Water Temperature: 75.6 °F (24.2 °C)

    BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
    (44013) 42.346N 70.651W
    Last Updated: Jul 18 2013, 12:50 pm EDT
    Thu, 18 Jul 2013 12:50:00 -0400
    Temperature: 74.5 °F (23.6 °C)
    Dewpoint: 72.0 °F (22.2 °C)
    Wind: East at 9.0 MPH (7.78 KT)
    MSL Pressure: 1016.8 mb
    Water Temperature: 72.0 °F (22.2 °C)
    Wave Height: 0.2 m (0.66 ft)
    Average Period: 4.0 sec

    8443970 – Boston, MA
    (BHBM3) 42.355N 71.052W
    Last Updated: Jul 18 2013, 12:30 pm EST
    Thu, 18 Jul 2013 12:30:00 -0500
    Temperature: 79.5 °F (26.4 °C)
    MSL Pressure: 1016.5 mb
    Water Temperature: 74.1 °F (23.4 °C)

    8449130 – Nantucket Island, MA
    (NTKM3) 41.285N 70.097W
    Last Updated: Jul 18 2013, 12:30 pm EST
    Thu, 18 Jul 2013 12:30:00 -0500
    Temperature: 83.3 °F (28.5 °C)
    Wind: North at 4.7 MPH (4.08 KT)
    MSL Pressure: 1016.6 mb
    Water Temperature: 82.6 °F (28.1 °C)

    NANTUCKET SOUND
    (44020) 41.443N 70.186W
    Last Updated: Jul 18 2013, 1:50 pm EDT
    Thu, 18 Jul 2013 13:50:00 -0400
    Temperature: 73.9 °F (23.3 °C)
    Dewpoint: 72.0 °F (22.2 °C)
    Wind: East at 6.7 MPH (5.83 KT)
    MSL Pressure: 1016.0 mb
    Water Temperature: 76.1 °F (24.5 °C)
    Wave Height: 0.2 m (0.66 ft)
    Average Period: 3.0 sec

  84. And then there was convection!

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=1&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

    http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php

    Can even see the sea breeze on both of these loops!

      1. I’m as worried as you are.

        I told my wife that I was just hoping that our house would
        be in between segments to be spared. If someone gets hit
        by one of the cells or Bow segments, they will certainly know it.

        I’m betting that Saturday morning NWS discussions and forecasts will have some VERY STRONG wording. Sorry TK, I speculate again. 😀

        1. Couldn’t agree more. High heat, high humidity, saturated air, very high lift colliding with a cooler airmass spells trouble. The only saving grace? Earlier timing and the fact that it is not a very strong cold front.

  86. Just a thought and it may not mean anything, but since the SPC has an area
    downstream of us (Upper MidWest) in a moderate risk for severe
    weather, I am wondering IF that will translate into our area on Saturday.

    I guess we’ll get a clue in tomorrow’s outlooks. 😀

  87. Hi all!

    Had some errands to run to help out my mom who is having surgery next week (nothing drastic or life threatening, just a necessary thing). I am getting caught up on posts and also working on a new blog post. If there is anything from here I need to answer or want to address then I will put it on a comment under the new post as soon as it’s out, which will be soon!

  89. Mac is off playing golf…..he said there is a breeze. yes in watertown…not so much in wayland

    JR said summer of 1983 had 30 days over 90. Ace there’s a a good reason your mom keeps reminding you – :D.

  90. Boston’s high today was 91 before the seabreeze. I believe all the TV mets forecasted NO seabreeze for east coast locals and mid-90’s for temps so a “bust” forecast in that regard, thankfully.

    So far Boston has had 15 days of 90+ temps which means halfway through the 1983 record of 30 days. If August is going to be anything like this month, that horrible record could be in jeopardy….UGH!! 🙁

    1. I addressed that “surprise” sea breeze and it can be attributed to last night’s thunderstorm complex that came across NH and Maine. 🙂

  91. TK – Regarding that 1983 record, is it 29 or 30? I have actually seen both numbers.

    TK – Also, my bet is there were no “retrograding” Bermuda highs in 1983.

    1. If memory serves me, 30.

      The 1983 heat pattern was a little more sustained ridging in the East and not so much a repeating retrograde of the Bermuda High. We had a whole lot of heat in June and July that year, a little break, and then more heat late in the summer. In fact, Boston hit 99 twice in September 1983.

  92. Power outages in JP.

    OS, Hadi – Are either or both affected? Hope not.

    Hopefully any outages this evening and tomorrow will be kept to a bare minimum.

    1. Good luck. In JP. Ugh. Horrible fire in downtown Uxbridge. Boy I can’t imagine what those fire fighters go through.

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