Where Do We Go From Here?

122 Comments

8:05PM SATURDAY (EDITED 8:00AM SUNDAY to remove TONIGHT portion)

Things worked out pretty much as expected in a general sense during Saturday. The idea of earlier timing and most widespread thunderstorm activity being southwest to south of  Boston worked out for the most part. Some areas to the north did see brief heavy downpours with some lightning and thunder. And still, some areas are “still waiting” for the storms, and will do so in vain as things are winding down as the sun sets on the day, and the heatwave. A cold front will finish sweeping across the region during the night, kicking off a few last thunderstorms over RI and southeastern MA, and this will lead us to a much more comfortable Sunday with clouds and a few showers lingering on the South Coast early, sun and clouds elsewhere, and a slight risk of a pop up shower but mainly dry weather, not as hot, and less humid than the recent stretch of weather. Enjoy it though, because we get into a low pressure trough pattern much of next week, which will be unsettled and rather humid, but without the return to heat.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

SUNDAY: Lots of clouds and scattered showers moving across southern RI and the South Coast of MA. Partly cloudy elsewhere. Slight risk of isolated showers mainly inland this afternoon. Highs 80-86 but cooling back to the 70s coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH shifting to NE.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind light NE.

MONDAY: Increasing cloudiness. Highs 75-80. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: Daily episodes of showers and thunderstorms likely. Lows in the 60s. Highs 75-85.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 65. High 85.

122 thoughts on “Where Do We Go From Here?”

        1. I tried the longer duration loop and could see the nasty one that went South of you. Then of course the 2nd one, although not quite as intense.

  2. Thanks TK

    What an absolute STINKER today!!!

    Topped out at 96 at the Airport, but I believe it made 97 here.

    Just had a brief shower a few minutes ago, first of the day. All it did was INCREASE
    the humidity. It’s stifling out there. I just came back from the store and it is still BRUTAL out!!!!!!!!

    1. It was a lovely cool dry air after the storms but is moist again. Still cooler as its coming off the river.

  3. Thanks TK

    Some nice lightening in the clouds due west of us but I don’t see anything on the radar except around JP and providence

      1. Oh darn. How’s mrs OS. And can you tell what’s due west of Scituate its too far away to hear thunder but lightening is great

        1. Very bad day today. Just too much. If this *(!@&*(&#*(&!@#*&*(!&@*#&*(!@# FRONT doesn’t come through soon, we’ll have to move to the North Pole! 😀

          1. I am so sorry. I don’t usually feel bad from the heat but each afternoon I have felt a total lack of energy. I can’t imagine how anyone that it typically bothers feels. And ill move to North Pole with mrs os. !!!!

            1. Thank you for asking.

              Remember, she is one of the ones we’re supposed to be checking on in this weather.

        2. I dug out my compass and its actually SW. Would it be possible to see lightening from the cell in Pawtucket all the way from Scituate. ??

          1. I would say so, because, well you’re seeing it and I assume you are NOT halucinating. 😀

  6. There is a warning up for Plymouth county now. I was just about to call it a night and better not get woken up by thunder! We were at a family party all day and my crib is calling my name!

    Welcome Back to the South Shore Vicki! I hope you enjoy your week in Humarock.

    1. Thank Sue. You have a lovely area. I’m starting to hear some distant thunder now but looks as if its going south of us. Wind just picked up. Hope you sleep well

  8. OS I guess I wasn’t seeing this earlier when I saw 96 at Logan! Glad Mrs. OS can have a better day tomorrow and Monday.

    Tom, glad you and your family made it through that last storm.

    Seeing lightning here too, and the closest storm is in Wareham!

  9. Thanks TK!

    Temps more bareable today 🙂

    I enjoyed the brief shower. Loud pitter patter against my AC 😀 A few loud bangs and lots of flashes!

    1. Same here but it rained a little heavier for a little longer. Some areas, like the southwest part of my city, never got a drop yesterday!

  10. The easiest AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Which of the following is the smallest revolving weather system?

    A. Hurricane
    B. Typhoon
    C. Tsunami
    D. Tornado

    Answer later today.

  11. The Euro, and to somewhat less extent (for now) the GFS, are already showing another ridge retrogression toward July’s end / August’s start. It’s subtle on the models, which are probably under-doing this process as they have at first most of the times it’s happened this summer. Watch for it to become a “model trend” during the runs over the next several days. Some claim we’ve seen our last heatwave of the summer as of July 20? I don’t think so. Summer started one month ago today and it’s 3 months long.

  12. hotel is cool, the view is not the best but its good. i was able to see the individual thunderstorm cells that went through. great night time light show. 🙂

  13. Hey what happened to this front?

    Sure didn’t go barreling through!

    We’re headed to Lakeville. CLosest obs points are Taunton and New Bedford.
    Taunton cloudy, dew point 68. NB, raining dew point 69

    Nice dry weather.

    Give me some of that nice September/October weather.

    1. They don’t often barrel through in mid Summer. It’s doing it the way it should. 😀

  15. AS expected, the tropical system advertised by the GFS for a few days has now
    gone poof. 😀

    1. Oh don’t worry, it’ll be back, then gone, then back, then gone, then back, then ultimately occur…..or not. 😀

  16. Personally I would be we’ve seen the worst heat already from this summer, I use the Aug 15th as a separation from summer to fall as daylight is much shorter and temps are beginning there downward trend, and its only around 3 weeks away then Fall seedings, I don’t think of Sept as summer the same as I don’t think of June as spring 🙂

  17. Personally I would bet we’ve seen the worst heat already from this summer, I use the Aug 15th as a separation from summer to fall as daylight is much shorter and temps are beginning there downward trend, and its only around 3 weeks away then Fall seedings, I don’t think of Sept as summer the same as I don’t think of June as spring 🙂 😉

    1. Charlie, I sort of agree, except I use August 10th as the cutoff. Always exceptions of course. But normally, the hot weather really wanes after that point. Probably not this summer. We’ll be cooking well into September. 😀

      Christmas Day Ocean temperatures off the Coast of Boston will be in the middle 50s! 😀 😀

      1. I’ll stick with Labor Day Weekend, or at least August 31. My son’s birthday is a Summer birthday. He was born August 26. 🙂

        1. I push summer as long as I can. We usually end up going to Rexhame or down to a Cape Beach until mid September.

  18. I try to make Fall time last as long as possible cause its my fav time of year, I want fall time all the time 🙂

  20. The Don Kent special is back up here, near 70F with dewpoints in the upper 40s to near 50F …. Ahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh !!

    See the dewpoints are 60F to 65F at home. Tough to get them lower with the breeze coming in off of the Gulf of MEXICO north. 🙂 🙂

  21. TK – Thanks for giving us the “heads up” on the heat returning late July into August…UGH!

    Joe Joyce continues to tout no more heat and now Chris Lambert (Ch. 7) is touting the last heat wave of the summer on his morning blog. Also, Brett Anderson of AccuWeather has much cooler for August as well. As much as these observations were welcome news for me (and probably OS’s wife as well) it is better to know what will actually happen then end up being extremely disappointed.

    TK – I still hope you are totally wrong on this…but you haven’t steered us wrong since you started this blog by my count anyway, LOL. 😀

    If HHH continues into August then no doubt the 25 days of 90+ temps and the 30 days in 1983 will definitely be challenged (unfortunately)…UGH!!!

    2. You gave me too much credit – I have not done a stellar job overall on long range. Usually have the right idea but it occurs 4 to 6 weeks later than I think. 😛 But thank you!

      I know there are summers we don’t get many 90 degree days and no heatwaves. It’s rare enough to have a hot summer that cuts off before the end of August, though 1988, relentless for a good part of the summer from just after July 4 into one of Boston’s longer heat waves in August shut off after August 15 (a day with a tornado watch but only a lame line of t-storms showed up).

      In my opinion it’s just not wise to call “end of heat” this early in summer. But those guys can do what they want. I’m already seeing signs (assuming similar model error as part of my theory) of some hot days as I stated above.

  22. Thanks, TK.

    Very nice summer day out there today. Still kind of warm (at least not near 90) and a little humidity. Whatever happened to those few days during the summer when a front would come through and we’d have a day or 2 of cool (relatively speaking, 70’s) and dry air? As I mentioned in yesterday’s blog – when might we see a day like that – Sept.?

      2. I do wonder though if retrogression (of Bermuda Highs) and Global Warming are connected somehow…UGH!

        1. Not connected. Retrogression is fairly common. We just notice it more when it results in heatwaves. 😉

      1. True, I remember that. I should remember the key things to the weather – unpredictable(sometimes), fickle and variable.

    1. It will brighten up next couple hours as the higher clouds depart but there will be some developing puffies.

    1. They could take place a time or two, with the most likely days (in my opinion) being Tuesday or Wednesday. Will have to watch the timing.

  25. I am heading to spend a couple hours on the beach at Revere, view the sand sculptures, visit Kelly’s for dinner, and stay for the fireworks at 9PM (postponed from last night’s storm threat).

    The Week Ahead may be posted a little late this evening. Have a great day all!

  26. It rarely rains all day in the summer months so I am not worried about an all day washout. Enjoying this nice break before the humidity comes back. At least there will be no big time heat this week.

    2. Haha, i figured everyone was out enjoying the weather. The driving range in north attleboro was definatly packed today.

  28. usbg.com (united states botonic garden) …. titan,arum … Ps stinky flower/carcus flower. If you know about it you know why its called the carcus flower. first time since 2007 that its blooming. seeing it tomorrow.

  29. It’s 70 and dP is 68 but wind is steady out if se and we are sitting in deck in sweats. I was thinking mrs os should be here. It’s wonderful.

  30. It was a little sticky today but compared to the weather we had been having it felt great. I bet if we hadnt had all the heat and humidity before, we would all be saying how humid it was today

  32. The front may have come through, but the humidity remained. IT didn’t get cleared out.
    YUCK!!!

    We’ll see what the week brings. Todd was on air last night? Not sure why.
    He says tomorrow will have “Soakers”. 😀

      1. From the NWS:

        EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WHICH WILL RESULT IN COOLER TEMPS WITH MAXES MOSTLY UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S…BUT IT WILL BE HUMID WITH
        DEWPOINTS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 70.

  33. How’s this from our friends at NWS:

    * SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY AND AGAIN SUNDAY?

      1. Well, I agree 100%, seeing how I got sucked in last week and was totally and completely burned by it. Right now, I feel like chicken little. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NO04VXBIS0M

        Barely a drop fell at our house. Severe weather??? Umm, NOPE!

        Btw, Was at Lakeville yesterday afternoon to my Sister-In-Laws place on the lake (actually it is named as a pond, but it’s huge, Assawompset Pond) Dirt entrance road was 1/2 washed out due to torrential rains and several trees were down from a pretty bad storm they received.

        1. OS that’s the key though. You were not wrong as it can’t happen everywhere. But it was exactly as promised here. The wind literally took plywood off house next door under constrction and the only rd was flooded.

          Seems it was same in lakeville.

  34. Where is this dry refreshing airmass that was promised at least yesterday and today? Get ready for yet another unsettled weather pattern for the next 5-7 days.

  35. This summer its either been muggy or hot and humid and this theme continues this week. It will be the mugginess this week and not the heat.

  36. This has the feel of Florida summer with many days having dew points in the 70s.
    Will see about that POTENTIAL severe weather as Taunton indicated for the weekend. Its way out there and as we saw last week that will change.
    Prior to that any storms should remain non severe.
    Threat level breakdown for those non severe storms.
    Flooding – Low
    Wind – Low
    Hail – Extremely Low
    Tornado – Extremely Low

  37. Interesting,

    I see that NYC has a dew point of 73 and are about 50-100 miles NORTH
    of the front. How does this happen? Almost looks like it is an upper level front
    and the surface still has the old regime??????????????? It should not be this humid,
    this far North of the front.

    I’d sure like to know the real reason why. I’ve seen the humidity lag behind some
    before, but I don’t think I’ve EVER seen it like this.

    Is this whole front WASHING OUT already as the area just assumes the airmass
    that was in place?????????????????

  38. Took a quick peak at the 6z GFS lift index for Saturday. There in the -2 -4 area. Certainly not off the charts but values in the negative territory you could get strong storms to possibly a locally severe storm. Many days and model runs to go and just like in the winter when there is a snow threat will be watching to see what happens.

    1. Well for this past Saturday the lifted index was -8. Big woof. Didn’t mean
      a thing, as other factors were not as favorable. Need ALL ingredients to come
      together.

      Certainly can’t tell if all ingredients will be there this far ahead. I’m NOT getting sucked in this time. 😀

  39. Well I can tell you I’m up hamton beach and absolutely no humidity hear today. Sitting on the deck having coffee and its cloudy. Could anybody be so kind to give me the forcast for hear today and tomorrow, tv gets one channel and phone not working well. Also I bought the paper but does not say if sox won last night, all it said was thr three run homer that napoli hit in the third. Sorry I hope this is not pushy.

    2. Hey john, hope you are enjoying your trip. While it might be cooler and cloudy up there than here, reports from your location give a dp of 67, pretty much the same as around here. Not oppressive, but still in the humid range.

      1. Perhaps not in the oppressive range, but well within the
        Old Salty YUCK range. 😀

        WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY to Humid for my
        taste.

        1. Current (11AM) dew points across the area:

          Boston, Beverley and Bedford ALL coming in at 68!!!
          That stinks.

  40. Less of a stickorama this week and hopefully last week will be the worst of the heat we see all summer. NFL training camps open which is a sign fall is not that far away.
    As for Saturday watch there won’t be much talk all week and we get it. I have noticed this with thunderstorm days the past few years when there is a lot of talk the activity is not as bad but when there is little talk the activity is more than expected.

    2. So far, I’m not viewing anything particularly alarming.
      Capes forecasted to be around 500, perhaps up to a max of 1000.
      Winds mostly unidirectional with height. We shall see.

  42. Thanks guys, your awesome. If I don’t make the beach again that’s fine because I got cooked there yesterday in a short time. Like I also said It’s cool here now. My son just put on a sweatshirt but I think he was overdoing it as its not that cool. Nine yr old what are you going to do. Thanks again.

    1. I just stood at the oceans edge and waved up to you John. DP here is about the same as yours – 68 – but with the light wind off the ocean it doesn’t feel as bad although you still know its humid. Lovely beach weather. I’m glad you are having a great time

      1. Thanks, Sun out now. A rock hit my windshield on the Tobin bridge yesterday. There replacing tomorrow morning. I have coverage.

  43. Just a comment/thought on the current stat of affairs with our ocean temperatures:

    I was out and about awhile ago. There was a STIFF sea breeze. Temperature here
    at the office 81. My comment is this. In past years with a stiff sea breeze the temperature here at the office would be in the 60s to lower 70s at BEST.
    This is a testament as to how WARM the ocean surface temperatures are.

    A few examples:

    BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
    (44013) 42.346N 70.651W
    Last Updated: Jul 22 2013, 12:50 pm EDT
    Mon, 22 Jul 2013 12:50:00 -0400
    Temperature: 70.2 °F (21.2 °C)
    Dewpoint: 67.6 °F (19.8 °C)
    Wind: East at 11.2 MPH (9.72 KT)
    MSL Pressure: 1016.0 mb
    Water Temperature: 73.2 °F (22.9 °C)
    Wave Height: 0.3 m (0.98 ft)
    Dominant Period: 8 sec
    Average Period: 3.9 sec
    Mean Wave Direction: East (82 °)

    Buoy A0102 – Mass. Bay/Stellwagen
    (44029) 42.52N 70.57W
    Last Updated: Jul 22 2013, 12:04 pm EST
    Mon, 22 Jul 2013 12:04:00 -0500
    Temperature: 70.7 °F (21.5 °C)
    Wind: East at 9.0 MPH (7.78 KT)
    Visibility: 1.60 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1014.6 mb
    Water Temperature: 70.5 °F (21.4 °C)
    Wave Height: 0.4 m (1.31 ft)
    Dominant Period: 8 sec

    8443970 – Boston, MA
    (BHBM3) 42.355N 71.052W
    Last Updated: Jul 22 2013, 12:30 pm EST
    Mon, 22 Jul 2013 12:30:00 -0500
    Temperature: 72.1 °F (22.3 °C)
    MSL Pressure: 1015.4 mb
    Water Temperature: 66.2 °F (19.0 °C)

    Jeffrey’s Ledge, NH (160)
    (44098) 42.801N 70.169W
    Last Updated: Jul 22 2013, 1:30 pm EDT
    Mon, 22 Jul 2013 13:30:00 -0400
    Water Temperature: 71.2 °F (21.8 °C)
    Wave Height: 0.6 m (1.97 ft)
    Dominant Period: 8 sec
    Average Period: 5.1 sec
    Mean Wave Direction: Southeast (145 °)

    Well, that’s enough.

    1. That Boston one is a mistake. That’s been screwy for awhile now.
      That one is close in the Harbor itself. No Way it’s that low. No way.

  44. We have a Cape Verde Tropical System Possibility:

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    If you believe any of the operational computer models, even if something develops, it
    will go POOF in a day or 2, so no big woof with this one. At least for now.

  45. What’s amazing to me about the water temps is how soon they have approached these levels. It usually takes an entire summer to get to where they are now.

    1. There has been many a Summer where temperatures have NEVER reached
      these levels. SCARY. I just hope we DON’T get any Tropical systems develop
      and move this way, OR if they do, hope it is later in the season after the
      water has had a chance to COOL some, if it does. 😀

  46. Sorry for the absenteeism today. Double shifting it at work.

    But, between shifts, the blog has been updated!

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