6:37PM
A cold front finally made it through the region Wednesday, which has been a warm and still somewhat humid day, though dew points have been lowering from west to east as drier air moves in behind the front. This drier air will continue through Thursday, though clouds will start to make a comeback as moisture rides up along the front that will not have gotten that far offshore before stopping. Low pressure developing on this front will bring another batch of wet weather Thursday night into Friday, and some of it may be quite heavy. With luck, this all lifts away and weak high pressure brings a much nicer day Saturday, though warm and still somewhat humid. Humidity will hang around for Sunday and Monday as well but another front in the region will bring shower and thunderstorm chances once again. Nice summer weather should followed this toward the middle of next week.
Forecast for eastern MA, southern NH, and RI…
TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind N up to 10 MPH.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs lower to middle 70s. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy. Rain and embedded thunderstorms developing, some heavy. Lows 62-67. Wind NE 10-15 MPH.
FRIDAY: Cloudy with rain and thunderstorms including torrential downpours morning. Mostly cloudy with lingering showers and a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs middle to upper 70s. Wind NE 10-15 MPH.
SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 86.
SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Low 68. High 82.
MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible. Low 66. High 80.
TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 65. High 85.
WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 64. High 86.
Thanks TK.
Company outing at Lake Cochituate on Friday. Figures. I’m not going anyway. Too much to do at the office.
Our new tropical system has made it back to the GFS, and the hurricane models.
Gfs progged to take a right turn just before it gets up here, but that is an awful long ways off. It’s a watcher.
GFS, strongest approach to New England:
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-natlsfc.php?run=2013072418&time=INSTANT&var=GUST&hour=288
OR
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-natlncep.php?run=2013072418&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=288
And what do you call this?
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-natlncep.php?run=2013072418&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=336
Thanks TK.
Any thunderstorms that develop over Thursday night Friday timeframe will be non severe.
Threat level index
Flooding – Low but like yesterday could be raised to Elevated if storms go over the same area
Wind – Low
Thanks TK!
Wow, the weather yesterday compared to today is like night and day 😉 “Welcome to New England” as they say. Haha
Fingers crossed for Saturday!
Dorian
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Wxrisk.com
since 1966 average date of reaching 4th named TC is AUGUST 23-24… SO YES this is way early
Thanks tk
The Dorian cone.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?5-daynl#contents
72.6 degrees with a 61 dp, beautiful night
74.3 with 60 DP and wind gusting to 13. Lovely
The Royal Baby finally has a name!
GEORGE ALEXANDER LOUIS…The future King of England! 🙂
I was rooting for James :(. Actually I was rooting for Victoria but that clearly wouldn’t have worked
I keep seeing everyone else with more comfortable temps and dew points but in sharon im still at 75 with a 65 dp, please send relief. I opened the windows thinking it was cool amd dry and was greeted with warm and still muggy. Am I the only one out there that hasnt felt relief yet?
Here too Ace. Dp still 64.
AceMaster I hope that relief comes to you.
I gave my thoughts earlier on the thunderstorm threat. Sunday looking at the 18z GFS Lift Index values in the slightly negative territory. Still time to watch that. Dorian I hope stays over the fish and away from the east coast as I have a vacation down in Virginia the first week of August.
Finally DP down to 58!!!
I have a temp of 70.1 degrees with a dp of 59, it’s beautiful out 🙂
Yep. In a hour and a half the dp has dropped 5 degrees. Feels great!
Wow, it looks “chilly” down there. 🙂 Enjoy !
61 with a dewpoint of 52 this am. It feels great.
63 with 53 dp and wind consistent at 14 mph. Waves active. I love days like this at the beach.
Vicki….I saw on the news that they closed Humarock beach due to the bacteria levels. I am not sure if it was for yesterday or today though.
Oh no. We didn’t see that. Thanks and great everyone was in swimming yesterday. Ugh. Thank you
How do you spell relief??
AAAHHHHHHHHH 😀
I wish I could lock this airmass in a room and open it whenever I wanted
My daughter in uxbridge said she’s digging out the kids snow suits. I have no idea where I went wrong. Must be a defect on her dads side. 😀 I love this
Well I seem to only like a narrow range, because now it’s too cold out. I shut the windows!!!
Yes, but the rain cometh!
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0
NAM rainfall, next 48 hours:
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013072506&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=048
GFS rainfall, same period:
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013072506&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=048
And I can’t link the Euro wundermap, but it puts Easter SNW squarely in the middle
of a slug of rain.
That doesnt look good at all. GFS depiction not bad for most though.
Digging out snow suits, did I miss something or just don’t get it?
this is the problem:
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
(KBOS) 42.38N 71.03W
Last Updated: Jul 25 2013, 8:54 am EDT
Thu, 25 Jul 2013 08:54:00 -0400
Weather: Overcast
Temperature: 63.0 °F (17.2 °C)
Dewpoint: 52.0 °F (11.1 °C)
Relative Humidity: 68 %
Wind: from the Northeast at 13.8 gusting to 23.0 MPH (12 gusting to 20 KT)
Wind Chill: 61 F (16 C)
Visibility: 10.00 miles
MSL Pressure: 1018.2 mb
Altimeter: 30.07 in Hg
🙂
Kidding Charlie. She’s just kidding.
For What it is Worth, both the GFS and Euro have Dorian really struggling down the road, with it coming and going. Gfs takes it across Folorida to NE Gulf and the eventaully remains up the Appalachians to NE. Euro as far out it goes has what is
left off FLorida North of the Bahamas. Neither of them with any strength at all.
We’ll keep watching because one never knows.
NHS official forecast has it at 65 mph at 126 hours. However, 2 of the Hurricane models has next to nothing.
I don’t think we will see much in the form of rain till tonight and probably exiting by early afternoon. I could be wrong.
I agree, except I would prefer low to mid 80s. 70s too cold for summer, perfect for Autumn.
What would be really nice would be a sunny day w/temps. in the 70’s w/dewpoints in the 50’s (I think that’s right). Maybe 2 or 3 days like that.
Well it looks like I’ve messed up the blog, yet again!
Last hurricane that I remember that was 28yrs ago when Gloria came through, We r do but chances are that it will miss or just be remnants of some sort
Weren’t you here for bob?
What about Bob?
LOL….
You mean someone got that??? 😀
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/What_About_Bob%3F
One of my favorite movies OS!!
Hehe. Very quick
Great movie! Watched it in a psych class in high school of all places. It was an easy class 🙂
“I’m taking a vacation from my problems” 🙂
Bob, 1991:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/hurricane/hurricaneBob.shtml
Gloria was 1985:
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/rain/gloria1985.html
Sue I found the article. Thank you again. We would not have known if you didn’t tell us and we have four small kids here as you know. Everyone asked me to thank you
I just looked up the information for you but looks like your all set. You can get updated information by going to scituate town hall website.
Thanks John. We were not sure where to look for updates. Greatly appreciated.
Anytime. If your out driving in scituate harbor there is a great ice cream place called dribbles, in the lot where the supermarket is. Also nice little place called satuit tavern, good calzones. Also if you go to brantrock in Marshfield the Fairview inn is a nice but pricey meal.
Massachusetts Dept of Public Health keeps a beaches report:
Here it is for Humarock:
http://mass.digitalhealthdepartment.com/public_21/beaches.cfm?bID=12392&func=details
Main site:
http://mass.digitalhealthdepartment.com/public_21/beaches.cfm?showsearch=1
My son used to be part of this beaches project and often took the samples. He has moved onto other projects.
Thanks OS. I’m thinking the big waves today might get rid of the bacteria. It’s an awfully high reading. Sadly I’m sure it has been there all week with the kids in it. Do you know if it can go as fast as it arrives or should we stay out of it all week?
Vicki, I’m no expert on this, however, if you look closely at the graphs, It appears to go fairly quickly.
But then with tonights and tomorrows
rains, it will probably be right back up there.
Is there town sewerage there? Trying to understand how the bacteria gets there? Up in this area, it usually happens due to an overload of the drainage sewers (HEAVY RAIN) such that some raw sewerage goes right into the water. Over flow valves or such.
The state tests weekly. Perhaps the town tests daily and you’ll know sooner.
Those levels were very very high.
Btw, Many a time I have swam in the Charles River. Never got sick in the slightest, so I’m sure the kids will be fine.
Thanks OS. I don’t know how the sewage works since its s peninsula. And narrow at that. We are figuring the river is the same which is where the kids really like to play
It happens every summer at all the beaches, not that big of a deal. This is not uncommen. Im sure it will be fine real soon.
John I only remember hum closing a very few times but yes it does happen in summer
12Z NAM total event precipitation (12Z today through 12Z Saturday)
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013072512&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=048
Thanks. And hmmmmm. I’m seeing a pot roast in our future. Good cooking weather
From Matt Noyes. this losks very nice:
https://fbcdn-sphotos-f-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-ash4/1002328_632097556809798_1521032722_n.png
It does. But not coming from the most reliable met.
Filling in and moving on up!
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&frame=0&delay=15&scale=0.663&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=0.663¢erx=415¢ery=190&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0
Bob did nothing except a quarter of an inch of rain with top wind gust to 47mph, I think today’s weather is worse than that day, I even had football camp in Bourne the day after Bob came and we were worried that it would have gotten cancelled bc of electricity flooding etc but even there we had high school football camp as scheduled, never saw any damage from that, Gloria was memorable for me with wind gust to 77mph for 2-3 hrs
Bob was a ton of hype for good reason but it took a ever so slight right hand turn that missed us and hit outer cape
Charlie remember it isn’t only about your area. Bob was not as bad in Framingham as Gloria but it was quite destructive elsewhere.
Charlie,
I totally disagree. Winds gusted to 64 at the airport and WELL
over 100mph on the cape. Took the wife and kids down tot Falmouth a day or 2 after and there was massive devastation.
Trees downn everywhere. Homes damaged. Roads washed away etc.
http://articles.philly.com/1991-08-20/news/25804255_1_tropical-storm-hurricane-threshold-hurricane-bob
Agree OS. Even not as bad as Gloria in our area it did damage. I seem to recall flooding perhaps more than wind but may be wrong. Easy day to remember as aug 19 is macs bday 🙂
Bob was a significant hurricane for parts of New England. If you had little or no damage, you were quite fortunate. We had many trees down up here in the NW suburbs. Parts of the New England South Coast: significant storm damage.
Very heavy rains over eastern CT right now, just hovering over the same area. If the rains set up shop where they are now, eastern CT through RI and SE MA are in for a lot of rain in the next 12 hours. The NAM may have been right.
Yup, I concur. Raining here as well. Been raining for about an hour. Nothing
terribly heavy just yet. 😀
Filling in rapidly!!
http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&frame=0&delay=15&scale=0.580&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=0.580¢erx=356¢ery=162&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0&MR=1
minor event at best.
I dont know john, some could end up approaching 2″ of rain if this batch stays together
Its not moving that quickly either. Same spots getting it. That batch that was in eastern CT for a while has moved up into southern worcester cty.
You may be right ace.
With each NHC update, Dorian is projected to be stronger and stronger. Looks like it might overcome some not so ideal conditions and its projected path has it staying north of the islands and larger mountainous regions as it moves closer to the US. Hmmmm, makes things more interesting
Well aware that I underforecast the rain today. Never expected it to get in this soon and never had a chance to update. Another crazy day.
Update soon. 🙂
Flash Flood Watch up.
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/box/
To: Acemaster
I agree with you. Actually Dorian has been stubborn . I have followed the forecasts and advisories and Dorian has defied all of them so far. I am not great at reading maps and all but I do see the possible dry air in its path and possible wind shear issues. I had hoped it would somehow dissipate but I won’t bet money on it.
Red Sox game is in a rain delay. Whether they play it tonight or not, they need the win.
Update: Game postponed due to rain.
John, why do you think Matt Noyes is not a reliable Met. Think he does a great job and is always very honest too.
Updated blog!