The Week Ahead

96 Comments

11:58AM (FIRST POST) / 8:40PM (EDIT TO REMOVE SUNDAY AFTERNOON FORECAST) / 11:59PM (EDIT TO REMOVE SUNDAY NIGHT FORECAST)

JULY ENDS NICELY

The last 3 days of July will trend to very nice Summer weather after an unsettled beginning early Monday as a cold front moves slowly eastward off the coast. It will take a while for the humidity to be replaced by drier air, so Monday will still be a somewhat humid day, warming up as sun replaces clouds, and after some morning showers and possibly a thunderstorm around the region I still cannot rule out a pop up shower or storm in the afternoon, though chances will likely decrease as the day goes on. Upper level low pressure will be moving eastward north of the region as surface high pressure builds in on Tuesday, and this means that some clouds will have to share the sky with sunshine, but it will be a nice summer day overall. Even more sun will dominate Wednesday as high pressure dominates. Dew points will be lower with comfortable air Tuesday into Wednesday, and though the humidity may begin to creep upward later Wednesday, it will probably go unnoticed.

AUGUST’S EARLY DAYS UNSETTLED BUT NOT TOO BAD

The first 4 days of August will feature a pattern of a digging trough of low pressure into the Great Lakes and high pressure off the East Coast. A couple cold fronts will pass through the region during this time (early guess on timing suggests early Friday and early Sunday). There will be a few episodes of showers and thunderstorms during this stretch, but much of the time will end up being rain-free.

PUTTING IT TOGETHER…

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, RI, and eastern MA)…

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers and possible thunderstorms in the morning, then partly to mostly sunny with only isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in the afternoon. Humid. Highs 78-83 coast, 83-88 inland. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Less humid. Lows 60-65. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs 80-85, some 70s Cape Cod & Islands. Wind W 10-15 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 60-65, some upper 50s inland valley locations. Wind W under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 82-87, cooler Cape Cod & Islands. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mostly late in the day. Low 64. High 86.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of showers and thunderstorms mostly morning-midday. Low 64. High 82.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 62. High 83.

SUNDAY:  Variably cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 64. High 84.

96 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  2. Thanks TK.

    Joe Joyce still touting troughiness for the month of August supressing the HHH temps. Do you still “disagree”?

    Of course it would be fine with me but my fear is that even if Joe’s forecast verifies, HHH would only return in September…UGH!

    1. The thing I strongly disagreed with was the fact that the end of heat for the summer was declared on or about July 20. I cannot argue with the fact we are going to be in the mean trough position into early August and maybe a bit beyond. And despite the fact that the sun angle is lowering, and the days are shortening, much more noticeably in the coming few weeks, we are not done with heat. There is a long way to go on the calendar where climatology says we can have days with high temps 90+. We may not have long stretch heatwaves but we’ll have some hot days.

      1. Thanks TK.

        Hopefully no more than 2 hot days in any stretch the rest of the summer into early fall. 😀

      1. Exactly ….. They are worse !! 🙂 We are back in school and even with a window unit, its still hot.

        1. I disagree, for me being outside 90 in July is way worse, and I mean way, different than 90 in Sept, the sun angle is way down 🙂

  3. Thanks TK.

    I had the sense that no one meant there would be no more days over 90 but in fact there would not be any more prolonged heat waves. No??

  7. The tropics ….

    Interesting to watch Flossie maintain a strong circulation and some convection as it comes nearer to Hawaii. Usually, the “cooler” water weakens tropical systems by about its current position.

    Whatever was Dorian is under a decent environment, at least today. Its easy to see the cirrus fanning out in all directions. There appears to be a midlevel spin and perhaps a surface spin, but I think they might be disjointed. Anyhow, the hurricane center has taken notice and has a recon plane investigating.

  8. Thanks, TK.

    And welcome home, Tom!

    Been very busy here lately, so haven’t had a chance to check in the past few days and read everything. I gave in and put on the AC this aft. Really muggy out but at least not in the 90’s.

  9. Pretty strong line of storms about to come through NYC. Wonder if that line stays together when it gets up here

    1. No chance. Not enough sun and too much E to S wind off the water, and too much debris cloudiness even into evening from that weakening area of rain coming up from the SSW.

  11. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is the name given to significant weather activity that leads to a rise in sea temperature in the Pacific Ocean?

    A. La Nina
    B. El Nino
    C. Fujiwara
    D. The Wiggles

    Tha answer is B. Everyone got it right.

  12. Thanks TK! Looks like some decent weather for the start of my son’s two weeks at Camp Clark in Plymouth.

    1. No surprise.

      Here in Woburn we had a sprinkle of big drops at 7:20PM. Other than some pre-dawn showers, that’s been it so far.

  14. I noticed a good amount of blue on the latest CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook. I will be vacationing in Virginia so I would love below normal temps as long as there is plenty of sunshine.

    1. Ill hope for perfect weather for you as we’ll JJ. Virginia is a lovely state. We haven’t visited much inland but love the shore area. Hope you have a special trip

  15. Thanks Vicki. I am leaving early next Monday morning and coming back late Saturday night. I looked the long range accuweather outlook for Williamsburg and I know it will change but it has nice weather with highs in the 80s.

    1. btw, last night the NHC had it with a 50% chance of regaining Tropical storm strength, however this Morning it ONLY has it with a 40% chance.

      So, not sure this will re-strengthen. We shall see. 😀

    1. Ugh, thanks JJ. I was afraid of that. Thankfully its just the first day. Will be on a ferry for some of it. Just as long as it doesn’t take away beach time! Hopefully the weather cooperates for u in VA as well

      1. Thanks AceMaster. The CPC and accuweather long range forecast indicating below normal temps for Virginia.
        In fact next week here in New England the NWS out of Taunton indicating cooler than normal temperatures.

    1. That is a pretty healthy looking loop! we shall see.

      Operational models NOT thinking much about it at all. 😀

      1. Its gonna be tough to tell where it goes until it really, if it indeed does, organize itself and develop a defined center. Right now i dont think the models have a handle on where the center of circulation is. Latest loop shows hints of a center a little further north

          1. Definitely. On another note in the tropics, Hawaii is about to get hit with a tropical storm. Is that pretty rare?

        1. So the sun came out and I set up my chair on the deck and now its thundering. Everyone here is threatening to lock me in a bedroom.

      1. Yes, and that storm is just South and East of our area. General Clearing headed this way pretty fast. 😀

  24. so while traveling up through jersey yesterday and last night we did not get home till 6am this morning. the mixture of a traffic jam. we did not move from one spot for 2 hours and then the rest was extremely slow. we spent most of the time in jersey and delaware. then the heavy rain started and could not see out the window and there was lightning and everything so we were stuck at a rest stop since the high way was under 2 inches of water. we were like a motor boat while trying to get to the rest stop

    1. Welcome back Matt. You must have driven through the rain area that gave Philly 7 inches of rain yesterday and I think I heard its biggest rainfall since records have been kept.

  25. Cold front maybe showing up nicely along the VT/NH border with a broken line of thunderstorms.

    1. Cool. I thought we were done. Sure looks to be getting active again out there.

      http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=5&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=1&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

      Maps indicate from is through:

      http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_sfc_map.gif

      http://www.weather.com/maps/maptype/currentweatherusnational/uscurrentweather_large.html

      Well, perhaps whoever, or whatever, created the maps, was misguided.

      2PM Obs indicate SOUTH wind in CT River Valley, certainly meaning no frontal passage as of obs time.

      Tom, I think YOU are CORRECT! That line IS where the actual front
      actually lies.

  26. Nice day!! Tomorrow Tedy Bruschi and Gil Santos getting honored to PHOF, what a huge honor, I’m so happy the Boys of Fall are here, Best time of year is not far away 🙂 Go Patriots!! 50,000 expected at Gillette tomorrow

        1. Ahh, gotcha. I remember a few years back they also opened it up to residents of foxboro. It was a fun night.

  27. Mac was taking pics as dark clouds went by. He got one long low cloud that was totally flat on bottom, not too tall, rounded on top but tapering in front sort of looked like the top line of a dolphin. Is that a shelf cloud. ?? It was awesome and I had just gone out so missed it……..timing again

    1. Hard to tell by the description. Could have been.

      Any chance you can post the photo? Tx

      1. I can’t post it till I get home I don’t think. Ill see if someone here has a FB account and can

  28. From NWS:

    MESOANALYSIS STILL SHOWS GREATER MOISTURE OVER SE MA WHERE AN
    ISOLD SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

          1. I may be wrong, but it looks like there is some
            rotation with that storm almost on rt. 109 in
            Medway.

            1. * AT 410 PM EDT…DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
              CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN
              EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER HOLLISTON…AND WAS
              MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

              * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE…
              NATICK…NEEDHAM…WELLESLEY…ASHLAND…HOLLISTON…MEDWAY…
              MEDFIELD…WESTON…MILLIS… DOVER AND SHERBORN.

  31. I don’t like the looks of that one out in Millis/Medfield now.
    I swear I see a bit of a Hook echo and some rotation?

    Looks bad, not matter what. On it’s current heading, could get me in JP OR
    just barely slide N&W. Watching.

    1. OS I don’t have my notes here from your lesson but I thot I saw what u had described to me

      1. I have to leave in a moment to pick up my wife at home
        and travel to Cambridge. Timing is such, that we’ll probably get nailed by this one. Go Figure!!!

          1. Worked out great. Not a drop of rain, until we in the car a minute or, then poured buckets with vicious lightning all the way to Cambridge, then it stopped before our arrival.

            Some of the most awesome Towering cumulus I have ever seen. Simply breath taking. 😀

            It was a decent storm, but not severe in my estimation. Top winds perhaps 30-35 mph. No hail, although I thought a heard a ping or 2.

            1. We have been seeing those clouds marching by. You are right. It’s been amazing. The last round had the sun setting behind them so the edges were outlined in light. More now but it seems to be falling apart.

  32. All the weather action up in eastern parts of Massachusetts today.
    Two great summer days coming up tomorrow and Wednesday.

    1. The daily high temps will slowly start to decrease as we are inching towards those cool crisp days of autumn.

  34. We just watched a line of storms travel north of us and out to sea but looks as if another is heading west to east over Framingham area. Daughter said they lost power for an hour or so. Darn 😉

        1. We are on the deck watching the lightening in the clouds on that one OS. It’s quite a show

    2. Lets see if this short delay has any effect on David Price, pitching another great game, but Sox hanging close.

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