The sun has just set on a cool, breezy first weekend of April, which of course followed some late season snow. What do we have to look forward to for the first full week of April? Activity. I don’t see anymore late season snowstorms at the moment, but we will be looking at a fairly active pattern, as a fast-flowing jet stream sends several systems our way. As mentioned yesterday, the timing can be hard to pin down with this pattern, and I am going to try my best to get it close on this shot. Based on that thinking, I’ll be diverging from some of the guidance, applying my own ideas on movement of systems, and therefore influencing the forecast details.
Highlights…
Warm front rain Monday, shot of warm air at night.
Showers & possible thunderstorms with a cold front Tuesday.
Ripple of low pressure brings clouds and a shower threat by late Wednesday, and we may even see some surprise wet snow from this system at night.
High pressure to the north delays clearing Thursday, and approaching warm front holds clouds in on Friday, but hopefully rain stays away until after the Red Sox Home Opener against the Yankees.
Weekend starts damp and ends damp, with a dry interlude between.
Boston Area Forecast Details…
TONIGHT: Increasing cloudiness. Low 31 to 36. Wind NW 10 to 20 mph early, diminishing to calm.
MONDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain, may begin as brief sleet and/or snow early. Embedded thunderstorms may track west to east across northern MA & southern NH during the afternoon. Temperature slowly climbing into and through the 40s. Wind SE 10 to 20 mph.
MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Isolated showers. Temperature rising into the 50s. Wind S to SW increasing to 15 to 25 mph.
TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Showers and possible thunderstorms pushing west to east across the region between mid morning and early afternoon. Lingering scattered showers possible afterward. High 60 to 65 early, then temperature cooling through the 50s. Wind SW 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts, shifting to W by early afternoon.
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Low 32 to 37. Wind W 10 to 20 mph.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds. High 50 to 55. Wind variable 5 to 15 mph.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Rain, possibly mixing with or changing to wet snow especially inland higher elevations. Low 32 to 37. Wind N 5 to 10 mph.
THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy in the morning. Partly sunny in the afternoon. High 45 to 50. Wind N 5 to 15 mph.
THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Low 35 to 40. Wind N to NE 5 to 15 mph.
FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain late in the day or at night. High 45 to 50. Wind NE 5 to 15 mph.
SATURDAY: AM rain. PM clearing. Low 38. High 54.
SUNDAY: AM sun. PM clouds, late day showers. Low 41. High 56.
where is the warm,hot temps :((((
If you’re looking for warm/hot temps in early April in New England, most of the time you’re looking in the wrong place. Last year’s 90 degrees on April 7 was an anomaly. Today was right about normal. Temps should be near to below normal during the next 7 to 10 days.
I think April snow is just as much as of an anomaly,
Somewhat, but given that Boston averages about 1 inch in April, not that much of one.
Thanks for the update TK………I dont know what is having a more difficult time getting started…….consistent mild weather or the Red Sox. I know the weather one can hold off until late May or early June, I hope thats not true of the Sox.
We’ll have a warm spell 2nd half of April, provided we don’t get back-doored every few days. The Sox will be fine. 🙂
TK-Thank’s for the update. So TK as you stated about not seeing any snowstorms at the moment, do you think it is a safe bet to say the snow is done for this area. I suppose the higher elevated areas could still get some. I know it is early for you to state this as I think in past blogs you said this. But I mean how much longer could winter hold on. And yes it snowed on Friday, but I would think as each passing day goes, so does the chances of snow.
Of course climatology says that the chances are dropping off, but I still think we need to keep an eye out through mid April. Big stuff is probably done though. For example, watch Wednesday night & Friday night for potential snow events at least inland/higher elevations, depending on timing of systems.
John ur in pembroke it’s very close to coast, we usually don’t get much snow past the 3rd week of March, but higher elevations r always fair game, but I or u don’t live there so IMO snows been done for a while, we’ve been below normal for snow in Feb w/ 9.8 inches and Mar w/1.4 inches and below average with just a trace in April for here in Wrentham, our total here is 79.8 inches for this year. I feel like we haven’t had snow on the ground in like forever since our snow pack has been gone going on a month now, again further north could be different but us in coastal plain usually won’t get much snow, sure I can bring dates up that show snow, but very far and few between, it’s like saying it was 90 degrees on April 1st 1 yr but it was an anomaly that we got a April blizzard the year before 🙂 my azaleas r all yellow today and sprung 4 days later than last yr, plus my ornamentals r sprouting red and look to bust open anyday now 🙂
The thunderstorms in northeast Nebraska and southeast Iowa have developed quickly and look nasty. When they develop that fast on radar, I wonder what that must look like skywise to have them develop so fast overhead. It seems that most times in New England, thunderstorms approach an area already developed somewhere to the west. The western horizon turns very dark, the thunder ramps up and you know your about to get hit.
Check out my reply to Barry’s blog on WBZ. I’m sure Troll Boy will rip into this one, because I asked Barry about snow.
Barry replied. I know what MCS means…. but, in his reply, what does RPM stand for ?
RPM = Rapid Precision Mesoscale model which is basically what generates futurecast. It can be applied to the NAM & the GFS. These are the “futurecast” forecasts you see on Ch 4 & 5 on a regular basis.
The NAM’s is often spot-on, when the model is running well with no convective feedback or other issues. I’ve used it to pinpoint thunderstorm development down to a few miles and within an hour.
Two watch boxes are up one a tornado watch and a severe thunderstorm watch as the thunderstorm activity is getting going in part of the midwest out ahead of the cold front. I expect more watches and warnings to go up as the front progresses toward the east. For us I don’t see any severe weather but don’t be surprised to hear thunder on Tuesday. Thunderstorm Index is at 1 for Tuesday on the 1-4 scale.
JJ we have to watch for convection sliding along the advancing warm front in the afternoon tomorrow. Strong and gusty wind potential is something to consider with anything that develops. This would be from a disturbance coming along and enhancing activity along the warm front, not associated with the Tuesday cold front.
Good point and I thought about tomorrow after I posted the comment but will see what develops with the warm front passage. The storm chasers I am sure are ready to go.
That storm in Northeast Nebraska looks vicious. It is moving exceptionally fast. On the Nebraska radar, you can see a boundary that the storms are developing north of. I dont know if that is an outflow boundary or not.
There are a number of severe thunderstorms warnings but no tornado warnings last check. A thunderstorm I am looking at heading for the Kansas City area. It looks like it has a bit of a bow to it so that is probably producing damaging winds and hail. It was quite all day in these areas but it looks like things are getting busy.
Hi JJ,
Thats exactly the storm I am talking about, heading, as you said towards the KC area. Amazing what happens when the cap breaks and those storms fire so fast.
It was quite all day and as soon as the Cap broke bam and this is just the start of this severe weather outbreak. There is plenty of warm moist air ahead of the front to fuel thunderstorm development.
yes, I noticed in viewing TWC’s dewpoint map, that there was a large area of 60F+ dewpoints being advected northward ahead of the cold front.
JJ have you ever read Storm Track magazine? Published by Tim Marshall. I have all of the hard copies but the entire series if available online I believe. Tim, and many other chasers, have put out a large amount of videos (originally VHS, now DVDs) of their chases over the years. Fascinating stuff.
I have never read Storm Track magazine but I am sure there is some interesting stuff there.
http://www.stormtrack.org/
Thanks for the link!
Newton = gloomy. Correction that should be GLOOMY.
Thunder and lighning in Framingham
Also in Worcester.
pretty good booming going on in worcester right now. been a while since we heard that
Newton: thunder started at 2:13 p.m.
This is just the first wave of rain and embedded thunder. Will get a break but more rain and possibly embedded thunder with the passage of the cold front tomorrow. The cold front thankfully does not look to produce the severe weather happening in parts of the midwest and south today where those areas are having using the thunderstorm index SEVERE Level Activity. For us I am giving a 1 since which is MINOR meaning should thunder develop it will remain below severe levels.
radar looks like it might train right over us for a while.
The good part is there is a back edge showing up as you get close to MA NY border so this will taper off. The cold front moving east in the midwest now.
It is getting quite dark in Marshfield. Cant hear any thunder yet, Echo to our northwest looks pretty strong.
This rain area with the embedded area is moving at a good clip. Nothing severe with these storms but I would not be surprised within them if there are gusty winds and heavy downpours.
Good afternoon bloggers!
Forecast working out well today for the most part. May have had the tstorms confined too far north though as some have managed to be a bit further south as well. All this tells me is that the boundary is far enough south that we need to keep an eye out for additional waves of showers/storms coming through all the way into the early evening. NY State has filled in a bit with echoes and some of those will be coming across MA between 5pm & 7pm. The warm front should finally push further N and put an end to all but isolated showers during the later evening.
Tom… See my reply above to your question about the RPM.
Thanks TK !! Interesting and I did not know about that at all.
2 new updates have been posted.