Sunday Morning Update

63 Comments

9:31AM

High pressure remains in control today with another beautiful day capping off a great weather weekend of low humidity, mild air and some cooling sea breezes near the coast.

An unsettled period of weather is expected Monday through Thursday as we’ll be near the boundary of the refreshing air and the northeastern corner of a big central US heat wave.

Nicer weather is expected to return Friday and on into the start of the Labor Day Weekend before the heat in the Midwest starts to shift into the eastern US.

More details on all of this posted this evening in a special extra extended forecast for next week including the entirety of the Labor Day Weekend.

For now, a quick update to the forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 75-83, coolest coast. Wind variable, mainly N, 5-15 MPH, but coastal sea breezes as well.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows in the 60s.  Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Lots of clouds and a passing shower possible from northwest to southeast in the morning, then variably cloudy including periods of sun during the afternoon and a slight risk of a few passing showers or thunderstorms (most areas will remain rain-free). Highs 75-83, coolest Cape Cod & Islands. Wind S to SW increasing to 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms possible early, especially southern MA and RI. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH becoming light variable.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of a few showers and thunderstorms southeastern MA and RI. Highs 77-84. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with a better chance of showers and thunderstorms. Low 64. High 79.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Low 66. High 84.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 59. High 80.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 55. High 78.

63 thoughts on “Sunday Morning Update”

  1. Thank you TK. Temps look nice for a while. I think Barry mentioned the possibility of couple days of 90’s during 1st week of Sept.

    1. He did and we should see at least a shot at 90+ somewhere in SNE around then. That heat bubble in the central US is going to be impressive for late Summer and it’s all in how it gets “squashed out” when the pattern shifts again. If we dig enough trough out in the western US, the heat is coming into the Northeast with no trouble at all.

      I posted stats on Boston that showed how easily this area goes over 90 in September, so it should surprise nobody if we get hot again.

        1. Of course we may get only 1 or 2 days of around or over 90, or even NONE as some people have forecast well in advance. 😉 … Point is, nobody can be really sure until we are only a few to several days away from the occurrence. The threat is certainly there in the medium range.

          1. We will see iF Mrs OS and I have the power to hold it at bay 😆

            I didnt see your stats. Will look as I know ill find them interesting

            We sure need rain. The Sudbury river is now mud where it flows and mud around the perimeter where it widens. By widens I mean lake size. It looks to be about 2 feet below normal

            1. Boston has hit or exceeded 90 on every day in September except 3, and hit or exceeded 100 on 2 occasions in September. It can get real hot in September.

              1. Absolutely. The week I started college (September, 1965) was brutal. Not sure about record highs, but it was awfully hot. 😀

              2. Thanks TK Great info and You sure don’t have to convince me as I know sept has the potential for some very hot days

  2. I don’t know if anyone who watched this morning’s WBZ broadcast noticed, but Lauren Lemancheck’s blue necklace was shaped just like a cold front. 😉

  3. How about this 06Z GFS:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-natlncep.php?run=2013082506&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=348

    Same system A little earlier:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-natlncep.php?run=2013082506&var=PCPPRSTMP_850mb&hour=312

    Same system earlier still depicted by the Euro:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013082500&region=NATL&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=240

    and the Canadian:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=hnord&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&hh=240&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=240&fixhh=1

    3 models have it. Hasn’t been that way before. We shall see how it plays out. 😀

        1. Sometime there will be another “Colonial Hurricane” and then we’ll see what can really happen.

    1. And with reasonably warm temperatures this week and potential 90 degree
      weather over Labor Day weekend, doesn’t look to go down. 😀

  5. Any thunderstorms that develop tomorrow and Tuesday look to be non severe. Wednesday’s thunderstorm threat has the POTENTIAL to have stronger storms if everything should come together. Euro seems to be very robust when the Wednesday thunderstorm threat.
    Threat Level Index tomorrow and Tuesday and this could change.
    Flooding – Very Low
    Wind – Low
    Hail and Tornado – Very Low

  7. Not sure I understand why all that is happening at BZ. I know Todd is moving to the am and Eric Fisher is in the picture. Not sure of 2 things. 1) When are Barry and Joe Joyce on? 2) Why the changes?

  9. My goodness. Between the point forecasts and the zone forecasts the NWS just continually over-forecasts rainfall around here, on a ROUTINE basis. They don’t have enough fingers for triggers it seems!

  11. The GFS model has entered one of its “no-use” zones. It’s baked. Something wrong with that model, like so many times before. It can’t handle the upcoming pattern. Using NAM short term (thru 48) and Euro after 48 for now.

    1. That would be the area some of us here tagged for watching the other day when some TV guys said no chance of any more named storms this month. Let’s see what happens.

    1. Well that’s the “Farmer’s Almanac” out of Maine, not the “Old Farmer’s Almanac” out of NH. I always listen to what THEY say. 😉

    2. We will get the opposite of what they say.
      They are not right 85% of the time its more like 20% and that’s pure luck!

  15. Old Farmers’ Almanac prediction for winter
    Winter will be colder and drier than normal, although snowfall will be above normal in most of the region. The coldest periods will be in early and mid-December and in early to mid-February. The snowiest periods will be in early and mid-December, and in early and mid-February.

  16. That first impulse is SO far ahead of recent progs it’s laughable. Already getting filtered sun thru increasing cirrus here this afternoon. I’m not in agreement with the numerous showers/thunderstorms and 70% rain chances for areas north of Boston on tomorrow’s zone forecast package by the NWS. I think our rain chances in this region are 70% through 10AM and then drop off to 25% or less for the remainder of the midday and afternoon though cannot rule out pop up showers/storms in some locations (best instability ends up S & W of Boston as the day goes on.

    Take a look at the SAT loop and look how fast these systems come over the ridge. The models cannot handle it.

  17. 81F at Logan at 6pm with a SW Breeze. My lawn, which had been green and growing through the end of July is now fairly burnt and for the most part, has stopped growing. A sandy part of the campsite we had on Cape Cod in Nickerson State Park was extremely dry, to the point of being dusty when walking through it. I think we need some rain.

  19. Returning from Quebec City tomorrow, by way of Maine. Should see some splashes of red, orange, and yellow in the tops of trees. Always a treat, a sign of things to come. The marathon was great. Well, my body is not exactly great, but the scene was wonderful. Being encouraged in French with shouts of “bon chance,” “bon cours,” and “bonne route,” as well as “on fait de bruit” (let’s make some noise) made this experience different from any other race I’ve done. Weather-wise it was a picture-perfect weekend with temps in the low 70s, though Quebec did hit the upper 40s and low 50s at night. One thing, however, that definitely suggests there has been global warming is the existence of cicada’s in and around the city. Not many, and no crickets (yet; maybe in 5 years time I’ll be hearing those this far north). Cicada’s were not in the Quebec City region 20 years ago, or even 10 years ago. They thrive in heat, not that QC really has much of that, but it’s warmer than it was.

    1. I didnt read you were going for a marathon. Impressive. Fascinating info re cicadas

      Ill be curious to know how much change you see in ME. I remember spending labor days in the rangley area fishing and it could easily be low 30s in the morning …..or lower.

      Safe travels.

  22. Hadi I posted what the Old Farmers’ Almanac winter prediction was earlier today.
    Will see how accurate the Almanac is. There predicting heavy winter weather during the first ten days of February and a storm for the Super Bowl. A snowstorm for the Super Bowl would be something.

      1. AceMaster the Super Bowl is in NYC and if we get that storm the Almanac is predicting for the Super Bowl it will
        be an interesting football game. Its going to be interesting how this works with the Super Bowl in a cold weather outdoor
        venue for the first time.

  24. Thanks TK! We have a beach day planned tomorrow but it isn’t looking very promising. Hopefully we will luck out. Spent a great afternoon at Castle Island today. It was absolutely gorgeous!

    1. I have a feeling it will turn out better than NWS is making it sound. Not a perfect day, but not the worst.

      1. Thanks TK. At least it is close to home so we won’t have far to go if we have to call it a day due to the weather.

  27. How about this for a Super Bowl some day?

    Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay WS 😀

    Teams: Miami Dolphins vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 😈

  28. TK, got a brief thunderstorm in Toronto tonight. Was modeled to be dry today. Exactly what you said, models are not handling these disturbances and their speeds well.

    1. That activity was at least 12 hours ahead of model forecasts from 36 hours before the event.

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