The Week Ahead (Plus)

111 Comments

7:42AM

8 days a week! It’s bonus time! An 8 day forecast? Say it ain’t so! Just once in a while, and this time it’s because next weekend is Labor Day Weekend. So let’s attempt to simply explain how weather systems should behave during this time and then forecast the expected resultant weather.

A strong ridge of high pressure will reside in the central USA for much of this week. A 2-part disturbance that came over the top of this ridge will fly across southern New England from northwest to southeast today bringing a couple shower threats and possibly a thunderstorm to a few areas, but much of the region will be rain-free much of the time. Another disturbance is set to arrive on Wednesday and its associated front will hang along the South Coast and be the focus for another wave of low pressure that may prolong unsettled weather into Thursday. By Friday, all of this should be on its way out and a shot of drier air will arrive, resulting in very nice weather into the holiday weekend. The deeper into the weekend we go, we will see the heat from the middle of the country starting to nose its way toward New England with the feel of Summer once again becoming prominent.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy morning with weakening area of showers from northwest to southeast across the region then lots of clouds but partial sun and isolated showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon. Most areas remain rain free in the afternoon with the greatest chance of showers and storms well south and southwest of Boston. Highs upper 70s to lower 80s. Wind S to SW  5-15 MPH gusting over 20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. A few showers and thunderstorms mainly far southern MA and RI. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. A slight chance of a few afternoon showers or thunderstorms mainly south and west of Boston. Highs 75-81, coolest coast. Wind NW up to 10 MPH shifting to E.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 65. High 82.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Low 65. High 83.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 59. High 79.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 81.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 61. High 85.

MONDAY – LABOR DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 66. High 88.

111 thoughts on “The Week Ahead (Plus)”

  1. Thanks TK – We had hoped to do some apple picking this coming weekend but 80s and apple picking just don’t go together. It sure does sound as if it will be a spectacular Labor Day Weekend though.

    If I’m not mistaken you have a young man in your house celebrating a birthday today. Please wish him a very happy day!!

    1. Indeed I do. My son turns 14 today and we will be spending the entire day at Water Country (his choice). Some of my fellow met’s might razz me for picking today to go to a water park, but with the majority of the rain by the boards before the park opens, and broken middle clouds probably the dominant sky, it being a bit humid and warming to the upper 70s to 80, the fact that many towns, cities, and colleges are back in the classrooms, the park being open 10:30AM-5PM, and I the savings of $4 on every ticket to get in, I’d say it all combines for a great birthday for him and a great day for the other 6 people going. Besides, if another shower visited us, we’ll be at a water park. We’re gonna be soaking wet anyway. 😀

      As for apple picking, I’m not a big fan of going when it gets especially warm. Maybe peach picking in August. 😉 If you were to be able to go early Saturday it will still be quite pleasant but warming up fast. Otherwise you may want to wait until we have a slightly more seasonable weekend, if possible. 🙂

      I will send your wish along to my son. Thank you for thinking of him. 🙂

      2. Thank you TK and I love the idea of Water Country on a day that might have showers. We still work birthdays around what the birthday child wants to do and it’s tons of fun.

        I agree re apple picking when it is warm. It is just supposed to be fallish. With multiple grandkids in school now, the odds of one of them being sick are increased so we had hoped to go before school began since it really isn’t apple picking unless everyone is there. I’ll just sit back and see whether the lure of all being together or cold weather wins out 🙂

      3. Enjoy tk. My wife and son and his friend went there last Thursday and had a blast. Hope your son enjoys his birthday. My son starts school this Wednesday so he is going to enjoy these last two days off. Crazy if you ask me as he goes two days only as no school on Friday.

  2. Thanks TK.
    Happy Birthday to your son and have a great day at water country.
    As was mentioned on previous blog the Almanac is out and is calling for a bitter cold and snow filled winter with a big storm for the Super Bowl in NY. Will see. If anything its a good laugh for Monday morning since most of you know I don’t put stock in the Almanac and when they are right its pure luck!

    1. Hi JimmyJames – I’m excited to have the Super Bowl in a colder climate. Every year I say I’ll get a copy of the Almanac just for fun and I never do. Maybe this year will be the year 🙂 From reading comments, I am thinking there is one I should get and one I should not. Can you please explain the difference as I haven’t read one in years. Thank you!

  3. The Farmers’ Almanac comes out of Maine. The Old Farmers’ Almanac comes out of New Hampshire. Now looking at both of them I would say the Farmers’ Almanac is SLIGHTLY more accurate. There are people who treat the Almanac as there bible.
    I just get a big laugh out of it but when something they predict happens I hear about it. I just say they got lucky. If you make enough predictions sooner or later your going to get something right.
    I never buy the Almanac’s. I just got to the website and it shows their predictions for the next two months. If you believe the Farmers’ Almanac the first ten days of February is red flagged for having heavy winter weather.

    1. Thanks JJ – I’ll go to the websites – much easier. Except I know me. If I don’t see a book lying around, I’ll forget to go to the site 🙁

  6. TK, thanks and Happy Birthday to your son! I have never been to water country but it sounds like fun so enjoy!

  7. Re: Farmer’s Almanac (old or the other, doesn’t Matter)

    Pure bunk. Voodoo Forecasting. Pure entertainment only. 😀

  8. Tropics in the Atlantic:

    All of the action the models were showing, is not as prevalent now.
    At 10 days out, Canadian and GFS has a system (Way OTS), however, now the Euro
    has lost it. Previously, they all had a system in a dangerous position.

    Still watching and waiting. Time is running out. We could very well ESCAPE
    this season, although forecasts are calling for a rapid ramp up in September.
    We shall see. I’m thinking perhaps NOT. 😀

    1. When does marshfield start, hope you have a great school year. You certainly had a great summer vacation.

  13. I just heard that the farmers almanac purposely put a snowy Super Bowl in there to increase sales, this was both talked about on the sports hub and CNN, wondering on anyone’s thought?

    1. Some business enterprises are just sleezy operations, so it doesn’t surprise
      me in the slightest that they would pull that dirty trick. Of course, that doesn’t
      mean they did it, just wouldn’t surprise me if they did. 😀

      1. I’m of two minds on that. I have always thought the alamacs were intended more for fun than accuracy so I don’t really mind the storm for the superbowl being in there for whatever reason. I figure if individuals believe it, then…………

        My other mind says we are duped enough by the media but still I go back to are we duped or do we just believe everything we read?

  14. We have had clouds all but a small portion of the day. It has that humid feel with a very stiff wind at times – almost like spring’s promise of summer as opposed to summer fading to autumn. Whatever it is, I am enjoying it.

  18. That’s a pretty good line of showers and embedded storms now moving into western parts of NY state.
    My thoughts have not changed since yesterday. I still think any thunderstorms here in SNE will be non severe.
    Threat Level Index
    Flooding – Low
    Wind – Low
    Hail and Tornado – Very Low

  19. Ok so while i was gone
    we had some of the warmest weather since july while we were marching in the parking lot.
    Patriots gotta get a grip , recievers gotta get open, and the o line gotta protect the QB. Our running game is good
    defense actually gave us chances and the offense blew it.
    remember most were 2 and 3 string players. surprised how bad mallet was doing not surprise if tebow is not cut
    saw some of the models ,wow its cold up in the artic. least amount of ice melt in the artic apparently since 2002.
    and whats gonna happen this winter is the opposite of the farmers almanac( though looking at the cold air in northern canada i see where they are going with their “predictions” for this winter. i just know the opposite usually happen when they predict
    its going to be a great week weather wise, labor day weekend im going down to the cape and the islands and gonna test out my new board. 🙂
    UML marching band is performing “santana” “songs are black magic woman” OYE COMO” “smooth” “she’s not there” “all i ever wanted” “dance sister dance” “everybody’s everything” and the piccolos are featured and march basically right up to the stands. and there is even piccolo duet which is gonna be awsome
    i hope i get it. gonna be a great year expecially since there are 120 members this year from the 84 from last year

    1. Breathe matt breathe 😛 Sounds like marching band is gonna be awesome! I miss it, played tenor sax in marching band in high school. Don’t miss band camp though, brutal!

      1. yes but alot of fun, we stay at the dorms and we have activities in the evening that we can do.

    2. Sept. 2, 2013 Labor Day: Marlborough Parade

      Sept. 28, 2013
      Malden High School, Malden, Mass. (Pearl St. Stadium) Exhibition 6 p.m. show start
      Oct. 5, 2013 Everett, Mass.: Homecoming Parade 10 a.m.

      Oct. 12, 2013 1.Billerica High School (show at Marsh Middle School), Billerica, Mass. 6 p.m 2.Salem High School, Salem, N.H. 9:45 p.m. performance
      Oct. 13 South Yarmouth, Massachusetts
      Parade
      Oct. 26 Wakefield High School Wakefield, Mass. Exhibition 6 p.m. (perform 8.45pmish)
      Oct. 27 2.MICCA Finals Lowell, Mass. (Cawley Stadium)1pm
      Nov. 2 1.NESBA Finals Lawrence Veterans Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, Mass.
      (perform 7 p.m.)
      Nov. 9-10 Bridgeport High School, Kennedy Stadium, Bridgeport, Conn. MAC Finals
      Nov. 30, 2013 Lowell, Mass. City of Lights Parade

      1. Sorry – but I am so proud of this that I can’t help but share and your listing made me think of it.

        BZ listed the best things to do around Boston for Kids during Labor day. One of the four was the Music Festival at Payson Park in Belmont.

        Payson Park was originally an elementary school in Belmont. My mom went to it and my brother and I did. It burned down back in the late 60/early 70s. The town wanted to put condos in. My mom and one other very special lady in town fought for over a year to keep it as a park for kids. They finally succeeded.

        When my mom died, the her dear friend, Liz, took up a collection to plant a lilac bush (my mom’s favorite) in her memory. They collected so much that at least 50% of the trees and two lilac bushes are there.

        Neither my mom or Liz are with us any more but I can’t help but think how proud they’d be that the park they wanted to be for kids was listed as one of the best places to go with kids for labor day.

    3. I love the music of Santana – in fact I may be playing 2 of his CDs in a little while.

  20. I’ve only seen computer model runs since yesterday’s 12z runs, but there now seems to be a trend towards a cooldown right after Labor Day. Maybe thats perfect, a warm Labor Day weekend, with cooler weather following.

  21. Are apples ready to be picked yet? I usually go middle to end of sept for the cortlands and macs.

    1. We do also and I think labor day is early although the orchards all open then. It really is more so we can all be together rather than some not able to go due to illness — when kids get back to school, all bets are off

  22. Still a fairly robust MCS in Nwe York State headed Souteastward. Will it? or Won’t it?
    Stay together?

    Btw, Maple trees on my street TURNING COLOR already!

    1. hehehehe – I’ve been driving everyone nuts pointing out the red leaves in our yard

      Quite humid still ….

  24. I love the 18z GFS, its always good for some entertainment. (it has a tropical feature, not strong, but out there not far from the US east coast at the end of its run).

  25. Keep the tropics away from activity until after the 13th. Wife and I going to PR for a weekend getaway without kids and she needs it!!

    1. Another late November and December trying to figure out how above normal water temps are going to play games with the rain/snow line.

  28. Btw, for those that haven’t heard or seen, the wundermap now includes the
    HWRF hurricane model IF there is any disturbance being watched.

  29. Really????
    We shall see. Their track record has been abysmal lately. 😀

    US National Weather Service Boston MA
    Liked · about an hour ago

    A complex of showers and embedded thunderstorms will move across southwest New England tonight and weaken along the Rhode Island and Massachusetts south coast during the early morning hours. Locally heavy downpours could cause street flooding in poor drainage areas across portions of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts tonight.

    https://sphotos-b-lga.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/1150300_492562747504768_1609582326_n.png

  30. Hi all!

    First of all thanks for all the birthday wishes for my son! My blog readers are the best. 🙂 He and the rest of us had a great day. Sunny for the first 2 hours, variably cloudy thereafter, and not a drop of rain. High was about 80 and there was a breeze which made the air feel cool especially right after you got out of one of the pools or off one of the slides, but certainly not unbearably so.

    Not to pat myself on the back but I think my forecast for the area worked out well today. It was a bit nerve-wracking going against NWS’s “showers likely with a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon” but I couldn’t justify forecasting that much precipitation that widespread in most of my forecast area today. I’m glad it worked out with regards to the trip to the water park. Sure we would have handled rain fine given it’s a water park but thunderstorms would have been a bummer to deal with there.

    1. Winds from 500mb to 200mb straight out of the NW.
      Most action is headed South of the Boston area. Still “could” get in on
      the Northern edge. Time will tell.

  34. Going to bed, figured I give an update, still light to moderate rain, .11 so far lol, ground is wet with puddles 🙂 goodnight

  35. 67.8 with 68 DP. We had .15 rain. Nowhere near enough. Daughter in Uxbridge said everything there is very dry as well.

    1. At least we’re not in a drought like we can be some year, not nearly as bad as some years in the past 🙂

      1. Droughts start somewhere so I’m hoping for a lot of precip this winter or we will be in serious trouble. Although a good portion of the western part of this country is in serious trouble drought-wise.

        1. It’s crazy that Framingham can be in a drought and 25 miles south of you we r about a half inch below normal for 2013 🙂 we’re fine just down the street, hope u get rain soon before they start getting buckets from here 🙂

          1. We are not in drought. The water level is very low. The Sudbury river is at 4.2 feet (flood is 10) and is surrounded by mud flats. The areas around the golf course Mac’s league is at are totally dried up and there is concern about some of the species that the water supports.

              1. My area is fine. My lawn is still green and I NEVER water the lawn.

                Charles River is not low and I know that river well. In fact, I think it is still a bit above normal for this time of year. 😀

  36. Well, we received a few drops of rain in the City. Clearly, most fell South of the City as expected. 😀

    for tomorrow from SPC:

    UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE MID SECTION OF THE CONUS THROUGH THE UPCOMING DAY2 PERIOD WITH PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF SHORT-WAVES AND STRONGER FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE PACIFIC NW…ACROSS SRN CANADA INTO THE NERN U.S. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DIURNALLY ENHANCED AND CONCENTRATED AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE ANTICYCLONE.

  38. Re rain and river levels…..I am only saying my area needs rain and that a river I am very familiar with is unusually low. I never intended to imply any other area other than the ones I am familiar with are low.

    This shows levels and flood stage but not normal stage. Charles in Dover seems to be at 0.8 but then flood is just 5′ so it cannot be that deep there. Flood where I am measuring in Saxonville is 10 and current level is 4.2 and there are extensive mud flats.

    This shows current level and flood but not normal for this time of year. I can only know normal for the areas I am familiar with just as OS knows normal for the areas he is familiar with.

    http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=ma&prodtype=hydro

    I do believe that normal rainfall for 2013 does not get us back to normal because we began the year at a deficit.

    1. So do we start going back to 1995? I think the amount of rain we got in June (almost 8 inches for the month) will get us through just fine but do understand you saying about what’s normal and what normal for year

  39. 57F atop Mt. Washington, this is one warm airmass. Thank goodness there are clouds and a gentle flow off of the ocean. No telling how warm/hot it could have been today with sun and any kind of landbreeze.

    Well, not surprised dewpoints are 65F to 70F. I cant recall the last opening of school where it was a cool, dry airmass. Day #1 of the school year is in the books !! 🙂

    1. You made it through.

      Pretty stiff sea breeze here. Very humid, but not too bad temperature-wise.
      😀

      1. Yes, got all the schedules handed out, practiced with the lockers, went over the general rules. Tomorrow starts classes and getting the books out, so we can get the math common core curriculum rolling. 🙂

  40. re: Sudbury River

    Vicki, believe me I am not doubting you for a second.
    Just indicating that other rivers are not in the same shape.

    I used to play in a golf league at Sandy Burr, which is right on the Sudbury River.
    I could readily see how the levels could drop dramatically in that river.

    The Sudbury is much smaller than the Charles and probably does not have as many
    tributaries flowing into it. The Charles has various other bodies of water flowing
    into it all over the place, thus it rises fast, but is slow to recede.

    😀

  41. But OS – I have made it clear that I am ONLY talking about my area – see my comment at 12:25 above. That’s all I have ever referred to as being low. Sandy Burr is where my husband plays weekly (and has for years) It is the area where I said the river is dried up far below what he has ever seen – other than last summer and he said it is as bad as last summer.

    I only made an observation about one river where the mud flats surprised me. That’s all it was. It’s ok that I would like to see more water here (in my area only) as we have had precious little; and much of what we did have, when it was so hot, evaporated almost immediately.

  43. By looking at the TV mets 7-day forecasts, it appears that temps from Labor Day and a few days beyond will be seasonable. Hopefully the heat that was earlier predicted will not re-materialize and the schoolkids be fairly comfortable with all classroom windows open. During my K – 12 school career (1965-1978) I don’t recall that many hot days and most years I even wore a light jacket. Only 1974 my first day in high school was truly HOT! Climate was so much different then compared to now.

    Good luck on another school year Tom! 😀

    1. You are a spring chicken. :). I remember always having a first day of school dress (no pants allowed for girls). And it was always a fall/winter weight. Shorts would never have been worn.

      1. Well, I am a spring chicken compared to you and OS. I believe I am much older than most who post here including TK. 😉

        I remember by the 5th grade at my elementary school there was actually a “controversy” if the girls should be allowed to wear pants…not enough to make the papers or TV, of course. 😉

        1. Hehehe. And 5th grade for you would be just a bit before company I worked for decided women could wear appropriate pants suits. And it was all downhill from there. :). Just kidding. I was a tom boy and always resented that I couldn’t wear jeans and high top sneakers

    2. Thanks OS.

      This Matt Noyes really gives a good analysis. Too bad I don’t have cable. 🙂

      Yes, if this had been snow it would have been a BUST for sure but this being summertime, we “dodged a bullet”. 😉

    4. When meteorologists actually start visualizing the atmosphere as fluid within fluid the concept of how these systems work will become easier to understand. It’s a common error.

  46. Blog updated. Sorry for the delay. Between Water Country Monday and a hike up a local mountain Tuesday, I was out of it for a few hours. 😀

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