Unsettled & Humid Labor Day Weekend

173 Comments

3:20PM

For the next 5 to 7 days we will be stuck in a pattern of humid southwesterly flow between high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean and a mean low pressure trough to the west of New England. Weak frontal systems will try to push through from time to time, responsible for kicking off episodes of showers and thunderstorms, but none of these fronts will make a strong push through the region. I don’t see a big change in this pattern right into the middle of next week. The news here is mixed, since many people have outdoor plans for the long weekend, showers in that case are not so welcomed. But it has been dry in August, so any rain in that regard is welcomed. I believe that most of the shower activity will be north and west of Boston through Sunday and more likely anywhere in the region Monday. By Tuesday it should back off somewhat but the threat will still be there. It remains to be seen how much dry air works in by the middle of next week. I’m leaning away from it making a strong push into the region, at least initially.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

THROUGH SUNSET: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy with only a slight risk of an isolated shower. Temperatures ranging from near 70 immediate coast to near 80 inland locations. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows in the 60s. Wind light SW.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms mainly west of I-95. Highs 70s coast, 80-85 inland. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-70. Wind light SW.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms  along and west of I-95. Highs 70s coast, 80-85 inland. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Lows 65-70.  Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY- LABOR DAY: Mostly cloudy. Scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms. Highs middle 70s to lower 80s. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 63. High 83.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Isolated showers/thunderstorms. Low 64. High 84.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 60. High 80.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 58. High 78.

173 thoughts on “Unsettled & Humid Labor Day Weekend”

    2. Yes, Same system I showed earlier.

      The Euro for the same time period show absolutely NOTHING.

      So, who are you going to believe? Mr. CMC OR Mr. Euro?

      The choice is yours. Unless they both have it, I wouldn’t change long range
      plans. 😀

  7. TK – Just a suggestion regarding your forecasts…How about using 128 as opposed to I-95? I believe the radio and TV traffic reporters still use the 128 designation from Canton northward and I-95 southwest to Providence.

    It is just a personal thing with me more than anything else. I do understand the road designations around the Boston area have changed considerably over the years. 🙂

    1. I may use both. In this particular case I was referring to the whole of 95 including where it runs separate from 128 in northeastern MA.

      1. If I may. I get confused also as I think of 128 around canton and 95 running south from there and then not appearing until it splits again with 128 to Gloucester. But maybe it will confuse the younger posters?

            1. Part of the old 128 is a trail in the Blue Hills Reservation.

              Also, the street I live on used to BE part of 128. 🙂

                1. Did it start in Milton and head to Salem or Beverly area?

                  I do remember when the original rt 2 was a dirt road then two lane and then widened

            2. I’m not one as i dont remember the exCt towns it went thru but I know it was Yankee division highway and something about circumference which makes sense.

              2. I just remember the parts that went through Needham (where I lived at the time) and Dedham. I can remember seeing the construction of the “new” rt. 128. 😀

    2. I think using a highway number that is no longer called that highway is more confusing, I say call the highways what they are 🙂

  13. I don’t use 128, I’m used to 95 and 93, haven’t heard 128 used in a while, I’m sure overtime it will be called 95 by everyone

  14. I think using a highway number that is no longer called that highway is more confusing, I say call the highways what they are

    1. The thing is, 128 DOES exist. It’s a local route (like 16, or 60, or 129, etc.). It is NOT part of the interstate system like 95 & 93. It just so happens that 128 & I-95 share the same strip of pavement from Canton to Peabody. So discontinuing the use of 128 would be incorrect, however you do have the option to call it I-95 in this stretch anyway. I’m not sure how often you travel up this way, but 128 certainly exists after it splits from 95 and continues to Gloucester. The use of the same strip of road by more than one route is actually fairly common. Local routes 4, 62, and 225 use the same stretch of road in Bedford MA for about 1 mile.

    2. I’ve always wondered how anyone had the foresight to locate the highways such that they coincide with the boundaries of future weather phenomena :).

  15. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    The strongest U.S. hurricane which hit the Florida Keys on Labor Day was called …
    A. Andrew
    B. Camille
    C. Gilbert
    D. No Name

    Answer later today. Bonus points from your colleagues for guessing the year.

  16. Non severe storms today should any develop. The biggest threat looks to be the heavy rainfall with these storms.
    Threat Level Index for today
    Flooding – Low but could be raised to Elevated later this holiday weekend
    Wind – Low
    Hail – Very Low
    Tornado – Very Low

      1. The first time I remember the feeling of “amazement” weather offers. I was 5 and was totally fascinated as the ocean started to creep into the kitchen at the house we had rented in Humarock. I am amazed I have no recollection of fear which is what you’d think would be a typical reaction.

  22. As JJ hinted, Monday “may” be a more interesting weather day. Some pretty stromg
    wording here from the SPC:

    …NORTHEAST…
    VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING SECONDARY SURFACE LOWDEVELOPMENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. HOWEVER…GUIDANCE DOES GENERALLY SUGGEST THAT A BELT OF MODESTLY STRONG LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL DEVELOP/OVERSPREAD NORTHERN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS DURING THE DAY. THIS INCLUDES MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND…WHERE SEASONABLY HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL…WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS COULD BECOME
    FAIRLY SIZABLE WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT…PERHAPS LARGE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS…OR A TORNADO OR TWO…WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION.

  23. From TWC:

    Still a Long Way to Go

    The bottom line, here, is a late first hurricane has not historically correlated to an inactive Atlantic hurricane season.

    We’re now in the peak of the hurricane season, the time during which vertical wind shear is at a minimum and instability, or the ability of the atmosphere to generate thunderstorms, is maximized.

    An “average” Atlantic hurricane season (1981-2010) would still deliver the following after Aug. 31:

    7 more named storms
    4 hurricanes
    3 major hurricanes

    Put another way, 61% of all Atlantic named storms form from September through the end of the season.

    Despite the inability of Chantal, Dorian and Erin to become hurricanes, all three managed to form in the deep tropics, well east of the Lesser Antilles. This is typically a sign of an active hurricane season.

  24. From Dr. Forbes:

    Dr. Greg Forbes
    TODAY
    Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms in southeast ND, north, central, and southwest MN, east SD, and possibly northeast NE and northwest IA. TORCON – 2 to 3. A chance of isolated marginally severe thunderstorms in central IL, IN, OH, PA, south NY, MA, MD, NJ, WV, VA, DC, WV. TORCON – 1

  25. Yeah tk I know about that 128 stretch way up in Gloucester but from 95 in Norwood in the split it says 95 north to Waltham, and 93 north to Boston, why not just call it that?

      1. I see the point but it technically is both routes so just take your pick I guess. If people are educated enough about it and realize that the road is shared, the confusion should be minimal anyway.

        1. We laugh as you come off of 3 onto 128. Its 95n and 93s and 3…..I may have directions wrong. Then suddenly there is a sign that simply states end of 93. I wonder how they decided that spot was the end

          Anyway. If one road is shared for a bit, you have to use both numbers cause it technically is both and would be confusing otherwise

            1. Charlie. If you are on 93 and it joins 95 for miles and is called only 95 how would you know you are still on 93 and that it will separate again eventually. Its new to MA but has been a practice in other states for years. Logic will tell you its foolish for it to be any other way….

              1. Logic and Charlie???? Silly 🙂

                There are many highways all around the country that share multiple numbers. When I was out in the midwest in June there were tons of them. No big deal.

                1. We got used to them driving up and down east coast year after year both along the coast and inland. I think MA may have been one of last states to catch on. That being said I like Phillips idea of differentiating 128 from 95

  28. No sun in pembroke today. I thought today and tomorrow were to be decent days. It was feeling humid now a stiff breeze in the air. Seem to be having trouble posting with this new phone.

    1. What phone did you get John….I finally upgraded to a Galaxy S4….fun learning all the cool things about it.

          1. John of you don’t know and if your boy is interested in outerspace there are two amazing apps. Star walk. If you hold the phone to the sky it will identify the stars, planets and constellations you are looking at. And spacewalk gives great details about the planets. Star walk is my favorite of the two

          2. I’m finding you need to be quick when asking. I’m loving the fact I tell it to set the Alarm and it does.

  29. Nasty cell with a severe tstorm warning in the Greenfield area along with a flash flood warning. Storm moving very slow at 10 mph and my concern has been with the thunderstorms that develop this labor day weekend would be the heavy rainfall rather than a severe threat.
    Monday I think the cloud cover is going to help us out big time. Looking at the 12z GFS the lift index values are in the -3 to -5 range higher values west of SNE. I would not rule out a strong storm or two particular across the interior but don’t see severe weather threat.

  30. Does anyone have an idea about tomorrow morning’s weather, specifically before 11 am? I may be swimming Walden Pond if the weather is OK.

    1. Not sure. I thought today and tomorrow were to be decent days but today is horrible on the south shore.

  31. A strong east wind picked up here for a while at 4:00ish. It had a bit of a cool feel to it. VERY humid.

    1. Just got done reading that it should be a great crop for apples this year, thought of you. We go to stow at honey pot.

      1. Thanks John. We won’t make it this weekend by to me it’s too soon. We are going someplace east of uxbridge. Just central for all. We do not live too far away from honeypot . Grandson loves the maze. I know you’ll have a great time.

        1. Oh not going this weekend, we go in October if we go. I was just letting you know it was going to be good picking this year

  32. Answer to Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    The strongest U.S. hurricane which hit the Florida Keys on Labor Day was called …
    A. Andrew
    B. Camille
    C. Gilbert
    D. No Name

    The correct answer is D and it was 1935. Everyone got it right and JJ got the year right.

  37. Vicki – thanks for the info. re: Rte. 128. Before we moved to Sudbury, we used 128 a lot – and since we both are originally from the south shore, we really used it a lot. But unless we have somewhere specific to go, like when we went up to Gloucester/Rockport earlier in the summer, we now tend to stay more on the back roads and sometimes Rte. 2.

    1. Hi rainshine. We like back roads when possible also. When we come hime from belmont area, rather than 128, we tend to go down rt 2 either through Lincoln or by walden pond and then into Sudbury. Its a lovely ride.

      1. Darn. I was hoping cell want that far north but if there is any in the area it would certainly make sense to cancel. Mac suspects the starting time for the golf might be delayed

        We have had some significant thunder for about 40 minutes and pouring rain…yay. Its moving away now but still lots of thunder

  39. Thundering in Sudbury now w/very light rain.

    Weather statement now says strong thunderstorm over Wellesley moving east.

        2. I am in between the two bigger storms right now. So far not much here. Eric Fisher just said Coventry, RI has had 3.4 inches of rain this morning and some streets are under water.

            1. No just cloudy, no rain or thunder yet. Heading down 495 in a few and will pass right by Norton to see my Mom in Falmouth. She has been in the hospital for over two weeks with pancreatitis.

            1. Thanks Tom and John. Just want by Norton and just light rain but when I left North Attleboro there was torrential downpours heading towards Norton.

  42. When I was briefly awoken at 5am this morning by the storms over the Plymouth area, I looked at the radar and saw a very subtle, small rotation in a few light rain showers over the Worcester area. It is now seen just north of Cape Cod, over Massachusetts Bay. In some way, I’m guessing its responsible for some of this activity this morning.

      1. Thanks for asking, North. Husband is home and better but still needs some teeth extracted – some are abscessed. We are trying to get the money as we need to pay up front to an oral surgeon and w/his needing 8 or 9 teeth out – we can’t come up w/over $1000.00 up front. He has regular health insurance but no dental insurance. It’s been hard – but he has an appt. w/an oral surgeon in about 2 wks. so we hope things will work out. My mother is ok – it’s just whenever she starts feeling sick and then they start her on medications. From beginning to end, this summer has been lousy for us. Hoping that the fall will be better – hope to go apple picking later in the month if we can. We usually go to Honey Pot Hill, too.

  44. Vicki – it did seem to form over us and seemed to expand west along the Mass Pike. Heaviest is heading towards Boston.

    It’s going to be like this off and on through tomorrow? 🙁

    1. I think a couple more hours of this and then, the afternoon could be largely dry or at least see a few to many hr break in the activity, especially eastern and SE New England.

  45. Wow – can’t keep up with this storm. Doppler radar now showing heaviest cell actually moving southwest!

    1. Its amazing to watch isn’t it. It started south of us and then just expanded north and like you I was just watching it as it moves SW. With Toms explanation of slight rotation if I understand that correctly would that be the reason its all over the place?

      1. Visualizing a bike tire, the center is the mini spin or low just east of the coastline and from the center, many spokes extend from it. One of those looks like its sitting over Boston and just points west and its very active. North of that, its quite dry. To the south, those could be other areas of convergence. Mind you, I’m guessing 🙂 🙂

  48. Quincy is having a pretty intense storm now. Lots of rain and lightning. Plymouth actually had a strong storm at 5am this morning. Is it supposed to rain all day?

  49. Was trying to sleep, but persistent thunder would not allow it.

    I saw this coming very late last night.

    On another subject, the tropics. A couple of things:

    1. The NHC totally lost the wave off of Africa. It has gone poof as we expected.
    2. The NHC now thinks the wave in the Caribbean “may” develop”.
    3. The Canadian for 4 days in a row still has an East Coast Tropical System:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=216&fixhh=1&hh=204

    2. Looks very moist across most of the models for a little while. Wouldn’t be surprised to see something pop up in the next two weeks OS. NHC really blew it on that African wave. They had it highlighted while still over land.

        1. It’s very common in this area in this set-up.

          The news guys never seem to talk about it.

          THIS is a good opportunity to educate.

          1. Thank you TK. NWS talks about it in the latest discussion:

            COLD FRONT IS STATIONARY
            ACROSS S NH AND THIS BOUNDARY MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
            SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON…ESPECIALLY N ZONES.
            UPDATED POPS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING. BUT ANY LEFTOVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION OR SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES COULD ALSO BECOME A FOCUS.

            Honestly, I understand the concept of an outflow boundary and why, But I am having trouble understanding how they can stick around for so long???

            Thanks

            1. An outflow boundary is born of a cold downdraft from a thunderstorm (or shower), and basically generates a small scale or localized “cold front”. If the air temperature, etc. is different enough from the air around it and there isn’t much in place to change it quickly, it can stay that way for quite a while and the boundary can be a focus for additional development. They can hang around for quite a while because the relatively chilly air is so dense and hard to move unless you bring in a stronger outside wind (gradient, etc.).

  51. http://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/png/box.png

    FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
    941 AM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013

    MAC017-021-025-011600-
    /O.CON.KBOX.FF.W.0048.000000T0000Z-130901T1600Z/
    /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
    MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-NORFOLK MA-
    941 AM EDT SUN SEP 1 2013

    …THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1200 PM EDT FOR
    SOUTHEASTERN MIDDLESEX…SUFFOLK AND NORTHERN NORFOLK COUNTIES…

    AT 938 AM EDT…TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED NUMEROUS HIGHWAY
    AND ROAD CLOSURES DUE TO WATER INUNDATING THE ROADWAY…WITH SEVERAL
    CARS STUCK IN THE FLOOD WATERS. UP TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAVE
    ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES.

    ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
    NEXT HOUR ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

    A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS ISSUED FOR RAPID AND POTENTIALLY LIFE
    THREATENING FLOODING. IN URBAN AREAS AVOID FLOODED ROADS AND OBEY
    ROAD CLOSURES. THOSE NEAR SMALL STREAMS MUST HEAD FOR HIGHER GROUND
    IMMEDIATELY.

      1. and a dotted line of heavy showers generating out through Springfield, continuing even further westward.

        Thunder/lightning has stopped in Marshfield, but were getting a steady rain.

    2. I was thinking that as well.

      It almost looks like these new cells have a bit more movement to the east-northeast or even northeast. Perhaps they are starting to feel the influence of the sharpening trof approaching from the west and thus will eventually affect northern Mass, etc.

      That Dedham area on 128 to Mass Pike, I wonder what their rain totals are going to end up being. Looks like they are getting clobbered again.

  60. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/97L/imagery/vis-animated.gif

    Ok, here’s a visible on the disturbed weather approaching the Lesser Antilles.

    Very interesting ….. Try to ignore all the convection. Go to about the middle point of the Lesser Antilles (just below all the convection) and look at the broken, small dotted clouds. They are HEADED EASTWARD ! There’s a light westerly wind on the south side of this system at the surface, it has some type of broad surface circulation.

    If the upper level environment begins more conducive, I think this will go. It wont surprise me if at 2 or 5 pm today, the NHC gives this thing a better chance to develop.

    1. Great satellite loop. Thanks I “think” I see what you mean.

      This is the very same system that the Canadian Model has been portraying for
      at least 4 days now, while the GFS and EURO have nothing.

      If this comes to be and even approaches the East coast, I might be ready
      to ANOINT the Canadian Model!!! 😀 😀 😀

  61. Kind of a strange weather day – we just had some heavy rain and it is still raining but the sun is trying to come out and there are patches of blue sky. Doppler radar shows more rain on the way, ‘though.

  63. If you are in southern NH (Hampton Beach for example), it IS a great day to this point. So again it depends on where you are.

    BTW I’m heading to Hampton after 2PM. We’ll see if it stays dry for fireworks tonight. But going up regardless, not so much for a “beach day” though we’ll walk to the water for a while if we are rain/lightning-free. Otherwise going to play the last arcade and roll-a-bingo games of the season and spend the rest of the accumulated points with my son at Fun-o-rama. 😀

    Fireworks are at 9:30PM. Sal’s Pizza on the dinner menu. 😀

  65. I just posted a quick forecast update. Nothing new in there other than tweaking today’s forecast and adding a day 7.

    Ironic that the forecast was posted at 1:28 (Hi Charlie!) 😀

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