The Week Ahead

125 Comments

8:28PM

A week of changes, especially temperature changes, is what we have coming for southeastern New England. A refreshing air mass moved in during Sunday and will be right over the region Monday, starting the new work and school week off on a bright, dry, cool note. But the high pressure area responsible for this shot of cooler air will sink to the south of the region on Tuesday and a very rapid warm-up will ensue, accompanied by some cloudiness Tuesday as the warm air flows in both at the surface and aloft. By Wednesday, enough of the long-lasting heat from the Plains will have been tapped and transported northeastward to bring a burst of mid Summer heat to the region. Very warm air will hold on into Thursday, along with a shot of humidity ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will bring showers and thunderstorms sometime between Thursday afternoon and Thursday night, timing uncertain and based on the timing of the front which will become more clear as that time frame moves closer. The end of the week looks much cooler, but the amounts of fair weather versus a shower threat will depend on the position and movement of an upper level low pressure trough. The Friday through Sunday forecast is very low confidence at this point so please check back for updates.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows from the lower 40s interior valleys to near 50 urban centers and immediate coast. Wind NW 10-20 MPH diminishing to under 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Highs from the middle 60s interior hills to near 70 most locations. Wind NW 5-15 MPH shifting to W then eventually S.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 50-55. Wind S up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Highs 80-85 except 70sĀ  South Coast through Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows in the 60s. Highs 90-95 except 80s South Coast.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny & hazy. Risk of late day & nighttime showers/thunderstorms.Ā  Lows 65-70. Highs in the 80s.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with a chance of rain morning. Partial clearing afternoon. Lows in the 50s. Highs in the 60s.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy with scattered showers. Lows 45-55. Highs in the 60s.

SUNDAY:Ā  Partly cloudy with isolated showers. Lows 45-55. Highs in the 60s.

125 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  3. Thanks TK! I think this is one of your best-worded blog posts yet! Awesome job!!!

    This see-saw weather is fine by me! I’m not ready to let go of my “summer heat” just yet…but I still get excited when I see early signs of fall. I love having the best of both worlds for now šŸ˜‰

  5. Thanks TK !

    Boy, the EURO has no run to run consistency, even just looking for trends, in its 7 to 10 day period.

    1. Frustrating with the Euro. Used to it with the GFS. šŸ˜›

      My more pessimistic look at late week was based on the Euro. Still shows that Friday and even part of Saturday may be trough-dominated, even possibly a closed low. I won’t make any adjustments yet until I view more info later today.

      1. Driving too and from RI southern coast Saturday for DIL’s baby shower and really hoping we don’t have to do the long trip in the rain. Guys are playing golf while there—–cowards šŸ™‚

  6. Hmmmberto

    Ok, we have a newly named storm. It is forecasted to be a hurricane by
    06Z on 9/11. What IF it is actually a hurricane at 1159Z on 9/10 and no one knows
    it? How is the record handled here as this “may” just be that close. šŸ˜€ šŸ˜€

  7. RE: Possible Thunderstorms on Thursday

    From the SPC:

    AT THIS POINT…AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT APPEARS POSSIBLE ON
    THURSDAY/DAY 4 IN THE NERN STATES

    1. The cloud cover maybe the limiting factor for Thursday. With that said its a pretty strong cold front cutting through this heat
      and humidity so I would not rule out a few strong thunderstorms to fire up.
      6z GFS Lift Index For Thursday. The values not what they were yesterday but certainly enough to produce strong thunderstorms. As I said there are some ingredients in place to keep an eye on this.
      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013090906&time=INSTANT&var=LFTX&hour=084

  9. Hello everyone,

    Any thoughts on Thursday, I am seeing things holding off until evening. Anyone see anything different? We have a big company event on Thompson Island and they are counting on my forecast. Any input OS or anyone else? Thanks

    1. I have a company event that day as well, everyone is counting on my forecast too. The event will raise a lot less money if we have to have it indoors.

      You must be pumped for tonight!! šŸ™‚ I hope RGIII does well but at the same time, the guy im playing in fantasy this week has him and im only up by 12 points with no more players!

      1. Beyond excited, I can’t even concentrate on work šŸ™‚

        Fantasy wise I think you are doomed šŸ™ sorry RGIII will put up more than 12 points

    2. Hadi,

      Here is the 12Z NAM Radar Reflectivity for 0Z 9/13, or about 8PM
      on Thursday 9/12:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013090912&time=INSTANT&var=REFD&hour=084

      Main activity STILL North and West of area. According to the NAM, no
      activity all day long until late evening.

      Stay tuned to future runs.

      In addition to what JJ posted for the GFS, the SREF has lifted indices of
      -4 ot -5 during the day on Thursday with Capes way up there.

      1. Tomorrow it will be interesting to see in the SPC’s day 3 outlook if were in the 5% chance for thunderstorms for
        Thursday. I would be surprised if they put us in a slight risk tomorrow with uncertainty that needs to be straightened
        out.

  10. The timing of the front looks to be late in the day with the front. The timing and amount of sunshine we get will be key in determining the strength of the thunderstorm activity. There are some ingredients there to produce strong thunderstorms. There is a pretty good amount of CAPE and LI Values are in the negative terrirtory enough to keep an eye on the situation.
    Good luck to your Redskins tonight!

  13. Had a couple friends coming back from the game in buffalo and they said buffaloes crowd is loud and standing the entire game from Ridleys fumble in the 2nd quarter till the end of the game.

    1. That’s what it used to be like here at the old “Foxboro Stadium.” Of course, everyone was half in the bag cuz the team was so bad that was the only way to get through the games…

      2. I remember those days but they do feel like forever ago (20+yrs ago) one thing we don’t have to worry about is the commitment to winning, in the 70’s and 80’s we didn’t have that, since 1992 everything changed when Kraft bought the team, and it’s been changed forever Go Patriots!! šŸ™‚ take it easy ace

  14. Shane Vereen, broken wrist, out several weeks. Looks like we have no choice but to put fumbles back out there thurs night…

      1. Without posting a bunch of links, it looks like the greater threat
        is across Northern regions when the action occurs with maximum
        day time heating. Also note: There will probably be a slight risk
        of tornadoes. I emphasize slight. I’m guessing SPC “may” place
        part of the area in a 2% risk (again, primarily to the N&W). We shall see.

  16. That is a good amount of CAPE for strong to possibly severe storms for Thursday. The LI’s are in that -3 to -6 range across SNE according to the latest run of the GFS. It looks to be a line of storms rather than discrete cells and I am not noticing to much turn of the winds. Of course timing and amount of sunshine will play a big role as well in determining how strong the activity is. Certainly its worth keeping an eye on.

    1. If THAT ever verified, the 2011-12 winter would look “cold & snowy” by comparasion. Most of Canada is unseasonably warm for much of the winter.

      I still have no clue as to the upcoming winter, but I can’t imagine that Euro forecast actually verifying…other than maybe a week here or there throughout the season.

  20. The Pats game vs. Jets come Thursday evening could very well have issues even if there is no severe storms per se. If I am not mistaken, even if there are just a few lightning bolts nearby the stadium, the game must be halted or delayed from starting on time by NFL rules. I believe NCAA games apply as well.

  26. As was the case with our first game…..ain’t pretty but is not the barometer

    See how I transitioned into weather talk.

    Anyway, Hadi. They will figure it out. We are cheering for them here

    1. And since we started cheering, things have turned around. Please do not tell me I have to stay awake until the end

      1. Charlie – I said the game was not pretty – not that it was the same in any other way. However, with all of the penalties the bills had and their weak defense, we should have been winning 33-7. As I said—-ugly game.

  28. I’m BACK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    Gabrielle that is. Yes, the system the Canadian has had for about 10 days now.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    And this is how close it comes as depicted by that Canadian model:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=090&fixhh=1&hh=096

    NAM:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=nam&run=00&stn=PNMPR&hh=096&map=na&stn2=PNMPR&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=096&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    AND HWRF:

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2013091000-gabrielle92l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=096hr

  29. Humberto is destined to become the Atlantic’s FIRST Hurricane of the season.
    Question is: Does it happen today 9/10 or break the record and happen tomorrow, 9/11.

    It’s going to be close.

    GFDL has it a hurricane at 0Z on 9/11.

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2.cgi?time=2013091000-humberto09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=024hr

    HWRF has it as a hurricane at 0Z on 9/11

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2013091000-humberto09l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=024hr

    Both have it NOT a hurricane at 18Z on 9/10.

    So it is progged to become a hurricane just before 0Z on 9/11.

  31. Re: Thursday from the SPC

    FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z THURSDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT FORM NRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS NY SHOW MLCAPE IN THE 2000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE WITH 35 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD EXIST WITH DISCRETE CELLS THAT FORM AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LINE. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE ESPECIALLY IF A LINEAR MCS CAN ORGANIZE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

    Here is the SLIGHT area:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

    Note: the worst of it expected pretty Far N&W of our area.

    Btw, from our discussion of yesterday, here is the tornado risk for day 1:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

    Will this translate? OR is this for today’s MSC?

    In any case, something to watch.

  32. Slump Charlie? He’s coming off reconstructive knee surgery and hasn’t played a lick in preseason. Give him a half which is what he needed and the skins looked much better. And when did you predict a sophomore slump?

    1. Idk Hadi I said it a while ago bc typically good qb’s have down 2nd years, sure it could be from his surgery I’m sure, anyways

    1. I apologize as I couldn’t stay awake. They looked like a completely different team in the part of the second half I saw. He will naturally take a bit of time to get back into the swing. I am hoping for a very successful season for both teams!!

  34. Interesting weather nationwide. Three feet of hail in Colorado, 90 degrees in Seattle, flooding in Phoenix. Wow.

  35. i like the heat but couldn’t it be on the weekend when i do not have classes
    would have loved to gone swimming one last time. and go to the beach. which the water is probably warmer than when it was in june.

  37. No severe warnings with that line as of now although there are reports of small hail, heavy rainfall, and vivid lightning.
    I think the line weakens as it cuts across SNE but certainly something to keep an eye on.

  38. Even if the thunderstorm activity weakens, we should have a shot of some heavy rain for about an hour or so pretty soon

  39. Gabrielle reformed near Bermuda, about to hit there as minimal trop storm. I have a couple co-workers there this week on the boston to bermuda cruise. Their only couple days on the island will be stormy šŸ™

    1. That is sad.

      I spent 5 days in June with the family long ago. It rained constantly
      the middle 3 days. Believe me, Bermuda is NO place to be in the rain.

      It sucks.

      1. Agreed. Total bore other than shopping. The natives there love it though. They rejoice when it rains. When i was there 4 years ago and it rained, i was talking to one a shop owner in St. George, she was telling me most people have built rain catchers from their roofs that funnel into their homes since there is a lack of water on the island. I was happy for that fact alone for about a minute then was upset again that my vaca was ruined, lol

        1. Yes,
          ALL of the homes have that. There is a water tank in the basement (if there is one) or somewhere on the side of the house. We once stayed in a house for a week across the street from the beach. It was February and I remember
          swimming in the ocean while the native islanders were
          running around with sweat shirts and Hats pulled over their ears.

    2. Ship is supposed to leave Bermuda at 5:30 this evening. I just looked at the ship’s web cam and it looks like they made an early departure as they are already at sea. Such a shame for the passengers that they don’t get to spend the full time on the island. I also have a coworker that is on this cruise.

  41. Those helicity values are impressive. I remember back the day of the Springfield tornado there were values between 150 – 300.
    Thanks Old Salty for posting those links as always.

  44. AceMaster there is the POTENTIAL for storms both tomorrow and Thursday. Thursday is the better chance of seeing storms. Tomorrow they look to be isolated in nature. With that said any storm that forms tomorrow could pack a punch as there looks to be a good amount of juice in the atmosphere.
    Here is the 6z GFS Lift Index Values for tomorrow.
    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013091006&time=INSTANT&var=LFTX&hour=036

    1. Ah, gotcha. Those values are scary! What about today’s threat, any chance of strong storms with that batch coming through soon?

  47. Okay. So I was off by one. It appears there will be a 90 degree day tomorrow in Boston, LOL. However, this will be the last one in 2013 before fall sets in:)

    2. alisonarod – nice to see you on the blog again.

      Hope you don’t mind if I ask you a medical question? I have had a cough for the past wk. – post-nasal drip. No fever and my nose is relatively clear. It’s just all phlegm in my throat. I do have allergies but usually they involve sneezing. Now it’s just a cough. I asked to see my dr. but he said just take Flonase spray. Now, I tend to have panic attacks – I have general anxiety. Is Flonase ok to take? And will it help my post-nasal drip? Sorry for the length of the post.

      1. Rainshine. No worries and a very appropriate question. Flonase is a steroid nasal spray. It’s duty is to reduce inflammation in your nose to allow you to breathe more freely. It will not reduce post nasal drip. What you need is an antihistamine, preferably a non-drowsy one i.e. allegra/Claritin/or zyrtec. Also, if you hydrate well, your body won’t feel the need to produce additional post-nasal drip fluids, thus keeping that at a minimum. It sounds very viral in nature and should resolve on it’s own; however, if the post nasal drip becomes more purulent (thick green/yellow) or if accompanied by sinus pain, teeth pain or fever, you may require an antibiotic. Hope that helps and feel well:)

  49. Wow, its in the upper 80s with low 70 dewpoints in the sunshine in the Great Lakes. Tomorrow’s going to be nasty !! It sure would have been interesting to see what high temps would have been reached with a 70 degree max angle sun versus tomorrow’s 52 degree max angle sun.

      1. Can i take a stab at ur point? The fact its still at hurricane status at our latitude is what was impressive to you

  57. Media (news directors want this) puts out forecasts of a cold & possibly snowy winter ahead, as do two of the more popular almanacs. And my scientific view point is skewed today by a reliable long range model forecasting warmer than normal weather overall (not every day) for the balance of 2013, right into the winter. Conflicting indications much? Based on that, and common sense, I won’t be issuing an “official” winter forecast until around the middle of November. Call me a coward, but I’m playing it safe. I just have no idea what the upcoming winter will be like. I prefer to focus on the next 7 days, detailing as much as I can the next few days, and generalizing days 4 to 7. This will continue to be a daily practice and I hope you find it useful.

    The blog will be updated with a new forecast by 6PM and will be detailing the following:

    -Humidity coming in tonight and lasting through Thursday.
    -Hot weather, like the middle of summer, for Wednesday.
    -Thunderstorm threat Thursday but may hold off until late at night for a good part of the area (important for the Patriots home game).
    -Turning much cooler for the end of the week, especially Saturday, when contrasted with the middle of this week will feel like October.

      1. Sometimes they get it right but I believe more by luck. Almanacs are great for the other info they contain.

    2. Fortunately, unlike the media which you are correct about, you can wait to a time that is realistic. I look forward to your forecast

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