Mid Summer Memory

124 Comments

6:27PM

First I would like to re-post a portion of a comment I made on the previous blog…

Media (news directors want this) puts out forecasts of a cold & possibly snowy winter ahead, as do two of the more popular almanacs. And my scientific view point is skewed today by a reliable long range model forecasting warmer than normal weather overall (not every day) for the balance of 2013, right into the winter. Conflicting indications much? Based on that, and common sense, I won’t be issuing an “official” winter forecast until around the middle of November. Call me a coward, but I’m playing it safe. I just have no idea what the upcoming winter will be like. I prefer to focus on the next 7 days, detailing as much as I can the next few days, and generalizing days 4 to 7. This will continue to be a daily practice and I hope you find it useful.
Now, on to that practice…

Lots of clouds and a period of rain visited much of southeastern New England today, and now a warm front has cleared the region, leaving behind only some lingering cloudiness. But the door has been opened to an air mass more typical of the middle of Summer, and Wednesday will evoke a memory of  the heat in July that was prevalent for much of the month. But how you can tell this is a late Summer heat blast will be by observing that the sun does not rise so early as it did back in July, and of course that it sets much earlier (7PM versus about 8:20PM) and in a more due west direction instead of the northwest as it did in the longest days. In fact Wednesday’s sunset is the final 7PM or later sunset for the year.

A heat advisory has been posted for Wednesday for most of eastern MA except the South Coast through Cape Cod, and for interior southeastern NH. High temperatures in these areas will be in the lower to middle 90s, and the heat index (how it feels combining heat & humidity) will reach or exceed 100.

With the cold front that will put an end to this heat still located far to the northwest of the area, Wednesday night will be a very warm and humid night, uncomfortable for sleeping for some of you. This is why it’s not always a wise idea to take out and pack up the AC before the end of September.

The cold front may be slow enough that we get through the daylight hours of Thursday with no more than the threat of an isolated shower or thunderstorm, and a main line of showers and storms holding off until sometime at night, possibly late at night. At this time, I am going to go with the main action not reaching the region until after the Pats/Jets game, but anybody going to the game should be prepared for stormy weather, in case it does arrive more quickly than currently expected.

Once the cold front gets into the region it will push sluggishly through during the overnight of Thursday and early Friday morning, with its showers and storms finally pushing to the South Coast and Cape Cod. Lingering rain is expected over eastern MA for a portion of Friday morning as a little wave of low pressure forms on the front just gone by, but it may be somewhat unstable during the afternoon as colder air moves in aloft and sets the stage for additional pop up showers in the afternoon to early evening. It will be turning breezy and much cooler with the air drying out. By Friday night and Saturday, the core of this much cooler air mass will be over southeastern New England, and it will feel more like late September or early October.

Looking ahead: A great finish to the weekend, bright and a little milder by Sunday. A reinforcing cold front comes through Sunday night or early Monday, bringing another shot of chilly air to the region for a brief stand before a new warm-up commences.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Areas of low clouds and patchy fog. Humidity increases. Lows in the 60s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Any low clouds/fog vanish by mid morning otherwise sunny, hot, and humid. Highs 90-95 except 80s South Coast and Cape Cod. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly clear. Warm and muggy. Lows upper 60s to lower 70s. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny, hazy, hot, and humid. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms but most areas seeing nothing during the day. Highs from the the lower 80s South Coast and Cape Cod to 85-90 elsewhere. Wind SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms arriving from northwest to southeast. Muggy. Lows in the 60s. Gusty SW breeze.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with showers and possibly a thunderstorm in the morning. Variably cloudy with additional isolated to scattered showers during the afternoon. Lowering humidity. Highs in the 70s. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 44. High 64.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 73.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 46. High 66.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 49. High 71.

124 thoughts on “Mid Summer Memory”

  2. Thanks and you knew the blog title would resonate with me, didnt you. Darn, no matter how much you look forward to the next season, its hard to let the last one go. I actually think I “get” Mother Nature 🙂

      1. Its odd but I knew that right around Emily’s first post here. Odd that I’m the product of a very conservative family and yet made it known to my kids that I also hate white picket fences 😉

          1. Being good friends with her I have seen some of her work before anybody else. A privilege. She is a gifted writer.

  3. TK – I hope the “next” warm-up is nothing like tomorrow’s and will be the absolute LAST HHH 90 degree day of the year.

    1. It may be. Of course climatology shows 90s can occur much later than this. But even if it is the final 90+, I do see some additional very warm stretches of weather looking out through and a little beyond the medium range. We may be back in the 80s by the middle of next week for at least a day or 2.

  4. Very well said tk Anybody who puts out a winter outlook now is a fool. Bret Anderson did mention a warm winter from some things he saw but even he said he is not putting out his forecast. Soon enough we will see how the pattern goes and than that may tell us something. I was also wondering if any el ninos will be setting up.

  6. why i posted fall predictions just for fun. winter predictions for fun around or after thanks giving don’t ya think, i wonder how close i have been with the year long predictions from new years.

    1. One thing to do it for fun. I’m all for it.

      It’s just amazing how many “official” long range winter forecasts start rolling out in July and August. Maybe it’s a good thing that most of them are probably forgotten by the time we get around to the actual season. 🙂

      1. i know, usually when one of my freinds asks me about the farmers almanac. winter out look i say “who, oh you mean ,the opposite book. I find most of the time they are dead wrong, and the opposite or close to opposite happens. which conerns me greatly this year since the called for snow and cold, i have bad gut feeling its gonna be a warm /dry or wet winter not cold and snowy. though hopefully im wrong.

  7. The almanac is more wrong than right. They do get some things right but when they are right its luck. I don’t buy the 80 % accuracy although they did nail this part of September right calling for warm and humid conditions with thunderstorms.

    1. I think they “nailed” it more because in September we almost always have a warm and humid stretch at some point during the month, along with some thunderstorms.

    1. High pressure ridge forecast to be north of the weakening system by then should easily deflect it westward.

      1. Yup, I understand and now I am wondering if it will weaken and then strengthen again. I know it’s difficult to predict, but i guess time will tell.

          1. The Hurricane gravyard. 😀

            Interesting that the GFS keeps it alive for a long time out there. But who can trust that piece crap.

  9. Looks like we nearly have 2 hurricanes!

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

    Thanks for the update TK. You talkin bout me?

    ACs have been out for a long time. One since late July. 😀 😀
    They ain’t going back in for one day. House is cool now and we’ll keep it
    shut down tomorrow. Hopefully it will be OK.

    1. Not you OS. 🙂

      Just a general statement. I know a few people that took them out early and a couple of them told me today they wish they had left them in. 🙂

  11. Thanks for the update TK! I know we’ve been talking about Eric Fisher over on BZ, but he had a great blog entry today. VERY thorough and proving he knows his stuff. Lots of weather geek stuff in there for us 🙂

    1. I believe Mr. Fisher is here for the long haul and will prove a very valuable member of the Boston TV market.

  13. Thanks TK. I like Eric Fisher so far.. For those who don’t they need to give him a chance. Winter will be his test 🙂

    2. And even then everyone needs to take management dictates into consideration. I still say we have no right to criticize till we stand in their shoes

  15. Can anyone believe 12 years has passed on the anniversary of 9/11 ? ……….

    Its 59.6F at the summit of Mt. Washington !!!! Looking at the satellite, we are sitting directly under the ridge, looks like little cloudiness.

    Downstream yesterday, I think I saw 93F in Toronto and Chicago, to name a few. It will be interesting to see where the temps are at the noon hour.

          1. Vicki, i actually have a few people i used to know who posted on their fb pages they are tired of the yearly reminders and remembrances of 9/11 and that people should just move on. I was disgusted when i saw this. People don’t just move on from something like that, its always with us, every day, and not just on the yearly anniversary.

  16. Good morning,

    We have a HURRICANE, Humberto. Don’t know IF it saved the record or not.
    I really don’t know how one can affix an exact time when it became a hurricane.
    Needless to say, it is very very late in the season for the 1st hurricane.

    Regarding any severe weather threat here.

    SPC has slight risk over most of Northern New England for today and tomorrow,
    but NOT in our area.

    Very small risk of tornadoes up north today:

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1200_torn.gif

    Today is going to be a STINKER that I can do without, thank you.

  17. Remember those lives lost 12 years ago today. I was a senior in high school when this happened and remember watching this on live television that day.
    Tomorrow for northern new england the SPC in addition to damaging winds an isolated hail and tornado threat is possible.
    For us I would not rule strong to possibly a locally severe storm.
    Threat Level Index:
    Flooding – Low
    Wind – Low
    Hail – Low
    Tornado – Low

  20. Thankfully there is a cap today in the atmosphere where its too warm aloft for thunderstorms to develop and no trigger.
    If the front came through today with these ingredients in place it could have been nasty here. With that said enough CAPE and LI’s in the territory tomorrow where you could get strong to possibly locally severe storm tomorrow and I would favor the interior.
    I want to see the 12z run has to say.

    1. I’m thinking that any severe weather tomorrow will be confined to
      the Far North and West. I see nothing but a routine thunderstorm
      sometime later tomorrow evening for our area. That could change, so
      we need to monitor.

      1. Old Salty special weather statment that came out close to an hour ago.
        weather.gov
        National Weather Service

        Watches, Warnings & Advisories
        Local weather forecast by “City, St” or zip code

        Special Weather Statement

        ——————————————————————————–

        SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
        NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
        944 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

        CTZ002-003-MAZ002>004-008>011-026-NHZ011-012-015-111745-
        HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-
        NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-
        EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-
        CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
        WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
        INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…HARTFORD…WINDSOR LOCKS…UNION…
        VERNON…CHARLEMONT…GREENFIELD…ORANGE…BARRE…FITCHBURG…
        CHESTERFIELD…BLANDFORD…AMHERST…NORTHAMPTON…SPRINGFIELD…
        AYER…JAFFREY…KEENE…MANCHESTER…NASHUA…PETERBOROUGH…
        WEARE
        944 AM EDT WED SEP 11 2013

        …STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
        EVENING…

        HOT AND HUMID WEATHER TODAY MAY GIVE WAY TO A FEW STRONG
        THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN
        PORTIONS OF CONNECTICUT…MASSACHUSETTS AND SOUTHWEST NEW
        HAMPSHIRE. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES AND TOWNS OF HARTFORD…
        WINDSOR LOCKS…ORANGE…FITCHBURG…AMHERST…NORTHAMPTON…
        SPRINGFIELD…JAFFREY…KEENE…MANCHESTER…NASHUA AND
        PETERBOROUGH. FARTHER EASTWARD ACROSS RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN
        MASSACHUSETTS…THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LESS LIKELY.

        AS FOR TIMING…MUCH OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS
        HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 6 PM OR 7 PM.

        REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER…IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP STRONG TO
        DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL
        AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

        IF FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE RISK OF STRONG STORMS A
        SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED.

  22. Is it me or it seemed like northern new england had more severe weather this summer than us? As OS mentioned they under a slight risk of severe tstorms today and tommorow. Ugh I wish we can see some good thunderstorms one last time before fall kicks in. But it seems like eastern mass always misses the action, well atleast my town always dodges them lol.

    1. Some Foxboro residents are so mad bc they get no money from the casino that’s a mile over there town line, that’s there own fault, they could have new schools and many infrastructure improvements that r needed badly in Plainville, the town is in such dire straights that the town asked residents to clear there local roads of over hanging branches and bushes in roads to remove them cause they have no money, great decision for plainville

      2. There’s nothing good about McDonald’s either yet there are every corner, and they don’t bring in any money to help towns, personally I support responsible change 🙂

  24. Nice day today, it doesn’t feel like heat of mid summer, maybe bc the sun angle is more like late March early April, it makes all the difference as supposed to mid July when the sun feels like its touching me 🙂

    2. I just got out of a meeting and saw that!! YIKES!!!

      That is HOT for this time of year. Brutally hot.

      Make it go away!

  31. With a good amount of CAPE and LI’s down in that negative category if the cap is broken a thunderstorm could grow and become strong to possibly severe in that watch area.

  32. There are warnings on some of those storms out there producing large hail and damaging wind gusts.
    You were mentioning tornadoes Old Salty the SPC in their discussion tomorrow is highlighting northern new england for an isolated tornado threat. For us here were in the general thunderstorm category tomorrow.

  34. has to happen in the next hour, but pretty remarkable for this date to get the temp to 97, if this was July we would be talking 105.

  37. The 850 temps dont look as warm, but there’s another signal for a strong warm surge 7 days from now (on both the GFS and EURO).

    I dont think this is the last 90F day at Logan. Good chance it wont be 96F again, but touching 90F I think is possible again.

  38. Interesting too ….. I think even as of this morning, the concensus was 93F or 94F at Logan and lower 90s elsewhere…….. I think today’s highs overperformed by 2-3F across the board. Interesting to see if this begins a trend on warm surges as we progress into the fall season. Usually, because of the quickly weakening sun strength, I’d think it should work the other way, ie …. the models predict 93F and it hits 90F or 91F.

      1. Again it’s not rare to have 90 plus readings in September. It’s still summer and in summer it hits 90 plus period. It may or may not hit 90 again, but if it does its not again unusual. Now off to cook my steak as I can’t eat again till late Friday afternoon as I’m having an oil change Friday afternoon lol.

          1. I should have added that I suspect you are all set but if u have any questions I’ve had somewhere around 10 in the past couple of years and spent the time getting prep, etc down to a science 🙂

            1. No I’m good. Had the first one this time last year and they found six polyps, 3 I think the bad kind. My grandfather had colan cancer twice

              1. Ahh. You and I are on the special plan. I was going every 3 months. But am up to 3 yrs as of last May. I hope for the same results for you.

  41. Keep in mind that over recorded temps at Logan only 5 times has it hit 95 or higher after 9/10. So it’s very rare to get this type of heat.

  43. You could tell where the cap has been broken today. We are fortunate here having a cap otherwise the radar screens in SNE would be lighting up like a Christmas tree.

  46. As I said earlier northern New England tomorrow according to the SPC has that risk once again of an isolated tornado.

  47. I wonder if there could be some good beach waves this weekend ???

    There’s actually a tropical storm warning, whose most northwest edge is all the way to about 150 miles SE of Nantucket. This if for Gabrielle. In reading the NHC discussion, I guess there’s been a slight westward shift to the track.

    There really has been a lot of small ocean wave days this summer.

  48. Well the storms today are where they were expected: where this is no cap and there are triggers. Nothing around here. When the HRRR said weakening t-storms/showers around 8 or 9PM in this area earlier I had a laugh and said “Oh that means some clouds…” No rain coming to eastern MA tonight.

    Tomorrow night will be a different story, and it would not totally surprise me if this time at least part of a squall line survives into eastern MA and southern NH. Details later…

  49. 2 more cool shots (Friday-Saturday & Monday-Tuesday), otherwise we are getting into what looks like a long term warmer than normal pattern.

    This worries me a little bit regarding the Autumn and early Winter. The Euro monthlies, as some of you know, have been painting it warm around here for the next several months. And to be honest, the Euro monthlies perform splendidly considering what they are attempting to do.

      1. Not really. The last several winters have all been different. Only one featured the persistent warm/dry pattern throughout.

        It’s not that cold air is lacking. It just wouldn’t be coming into the Northeast very often in that pattern. We’d find the US West cold, and we’d find portions of Asia intensely cold.

        The cold air is around, even if it isn’t where we are some of the time.

  50. OS I went back to May 31/June 1 2011 discussion and you are right it was a 5%. Great reading although still gives me goosebumps. It reminded me I should never kill spiders. 🙂

  51. Could we have leaves on the trees still after thanksgiving? A couple years ago we had a total of around 12-13 weeks where they were bare, we had a warm late fall and warm late winter.

    1. Charlie we have had leaves on our trees after thanksgiving for at least three years running. Lots of them..not just a few. The seasons they are a changin’

    2. Last Fall our leaves were down and cleaned up by Thanksgiving weekend. The year before they were on much later.

      In the NW suburbs though it is true we had more early leaf-down times in the 1970s, there were a few late ones as well. It’s been very variable since the 1980s.

  52. When it was in the mid 90s this afternoon, the dewpoints came down a bit into the mid-upper 60s ….. Now this evening, as the temp cools slightly, the dewpoints have come up into the mid 70s !!!!

    Today’s sunstrength equivalent : March 31st. Remember this day next March 31st, when its probably 40F. 🙂

    1. The tiles on our porch are still drenched from the humidity. March 18 2012 it was in the 90s if I’m not mistaken. If not it was close and it remained warm for many days

      1. Could easily have been 80s I just remember it was warm for a while as my 3rd grand was born and we had older sister here playing outside in the water table

  55. Charlie, slots are not a sure bet just because the town voted yes. There are other locations that are applying for them. The race track was already turned down once because of the current ownership.

  58. Storms died (other than some hold-on cells on the MA/NH border). No big surprise. The support was not there overhead for this area, but the storm sure did get close. However they had to rely on outflow to try to sustain themselves and then the stability finally took over except from PSM northward where it has been more favorable.

Comments are closed.