Weekend Hiccup

63 Comments

5:31PM

A cold front will be crossing southeastern New England Saturday night and the first half of Sunday, and a weak wave of low pressure may slow the front’s progress briefly early Sunday, otherwise that will be a hiccup in a weekend that starts out and ends up fine.

Next week, another sprawling high pressure area will arrive and stay for a while, keeping any storminess away. A cool start to the week will be followed by a warming trend.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

THIS EVENING: Clear. Temperatures cool into the 60s. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

OVERNIGHT: Areas of low clouds. Lows 55-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mixed sun and clouds but sun will be dominant for most of the day with low clouds mostly in the morning and middle clouds from the west later day. Highs 75-80. Wind S 10-20 MPH gusting to 25 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clouding over west to east. Chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms before midnight. Showers likely and possible thunderstorms overnight. Lows 60-65. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

SUNDAY: Cloudy through midday with episodes of showers then clearing west to east. Highs around 70. Wind S shifting to W 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Sunny. Low 47. High 63.

TUESDAY: Sunny. Low 44. High 66.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 48. High 71.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 51. High 75.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 55. High 78.

63 thoughts on “Weekend Hiccup”

  8. A little more confident today of less of a threat from anything that makes its way off the Southeast US Coast during the coming week, despite model inconsistencies.

      1. So far so good, at least the first part of it. Can it last all the way through? Certainly. Let’s see how long the next ridge holds.

    1. Thanks TK. BZ had a segment about it also. Growing up I heard many stories about it as you know. Amazing storm and no warning.

      1. Oh I thought you witnessed it… JUST KIDDING!!!!!!!!!!! DON’T leave my blog I’m just teasing you! 😀 😀 😀 .. It was Old Salty who saw it all in person. 😀 😀 😀

        1. Actually my father was 15 and has told me about how incredible the storm was, even here in the suburbs as he grew up right in this area. A few years later he was off to Europe during WWII which probably made the hurricane seem like a very easy thing to go through.

          1. I think you are right about it paling in comparison to the war. My mom was 24 and with her stories I sort of felt as if I witnessed it.

            BTW. OS and I will send you the URL to our new blog 😉 I’m thinking of names. I suppose Oldies but goodies is too trite.

          1. 😀

            You are a good guy OS. You can take a joke and I can certainly speak for not only myself but all the other bloggers when I say that we love having you here.

    2. Hmmm

      Isn’t that chart generated from the GFS?
      That should tell you just about all you need to know.

      I wish we could see the Euro chart, but it has been taken away. 😀

  12. The rate of warming from 1998 through 2012 was half that of the rate from the 1950s into the 1990s. There has been an increasingly strong and convincing argument that much of (not all of) this warming was influenced by a solar cycle, in which there was greater activity during the time of faster warming. What’s even more convincing is the global temperature rise rate cutting itself in half since the end of the 1990s is following along with a significant decrease in solar activity during the same time. Hmmmmmm….

    2. So now were gonna take 15 short years of half the warming than previous 50 yrs lol, so half the warming means there’s no global warming? And I’m telling ya for there to have no impact on global warming by humans is scientifically impossible, humans have at least 1-2% impact on the total global warming. Lets see how much warmer we are in 2050 and judge from there, if global temps go down below what they were 70 yrs ago then will reevaluate, until then I’m not gonna make a judgement on 13 yrs and back it up and spread the news, good day all, partly cloudy 70.4

    3. I’m not disputing the data or the causes ……

      Lets take a basketball player who averages 10 pts. In this analogy, its the 1950s.

      During the 50s to the 90s, the players avg increases to 22pts.

      From 1998 to 2014, the players avg increases 6 pts (1/2 of the 12 pt increase during the 50s to 90s) to 28 pts per game.

      Isnt the smaller increase more impressive and eye opening, giving that when the big increase happened, the player was only scoring 10pts ?? But to have still added a 6 pt increase, when the player first has to score 22pts just to get to his/her baseline average seems more startling to me.

      In this sense, this is how I think of the temps the last 60 years.

  13. Regarding the 1938 Hurricane, I believe it struck SNE during the mid-afternoon hours so most schoolkids were able to get home OK. I don’t recall ever hearing about kids being trapped in their schools or any injuries on the way home, etc. My mother was almost 8 at the time, and she nor my grandmother never mentioned any concern about coming home that day.

    The city of Boston did suffer a good deal of wind damage but obviously far less compared to the RI and CT coastlines and the interior due to flooding.

  15. Brett Anderson’s blog most recent items:

    1. Antarctic sea ice increases for the second year in a row.
    2. Arctic sea ice had less melting compared to last summer.
    3. Quite mild (if not warm) throughout the eastern U.S. and most of Canada for October.

    TK – Would you say the first two are a “reversal” of global warming? A good sign? 🙂

    1. The first 2 are an indication of a significant shift in the long term solar cycle which is known to have an impact on Earth’s climate.

  16. Compare these 2 observations and tell me what is wrong??
    I think the observer is high or the automatic equipment is on the blink!!!

    It is very WINDY out there and has been for a couple of hours!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Let me tell you, the Blue Obs is accurate!!!! The Boston one is full of what Charlies uses to make the grass green!!!!!!!!!!! 😀

    Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
    (KBOS) 42.38N 71.03W

    Mostly Cloudy
    73.0 °F
    Last Updated: Sep 21 2013, 1:54 pm EDT
    Sat, 21 Sep 2013 13:54:00 -0400
    Weather: Mostly Cloudy
    Temperature: 73.0 °F (22.8 °C)
    Dewpoint: 60.1 °F (15.6 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 64 %
    Wind: South at 13.8 MPH (12 KT)
    Visibility: 10.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1012.0 mb
    Altimeter: 29.89 in Hg

    Blue Hill – Milton, MA
    (KMQE) 42.21N 71.11W

    Breezy
    81.0 °F
    Last Updated: Sep 21 2013, 1:54 pm EDT
    Sat, 21 Sep 2013 13:54:00 -0400
    Weather: Breezy
    Temperature: 81.0 °F (27.2 °C)
    Dewpoint: 60.1 °F (15.6 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 49 %
    Heat Index: 82 F (28 C)
    Wind: from the South at 23.0 gusting to 31.1 MPH (20 gusting to 27 KT)
    MSL Pressure: 1012.8 mb
    Altimeter: 29.89 in Hg

  17. Here’s the thing though Charlie…

    Even though you are right that the 1950s to 1998 is a much longer period than 1998-2012 (keep in mind 2013 data is not in yet but short term trends clearly show the slowing and even reversal of warming – example: increasing Antarctic sea ice), nobody said that the “new” cycle ends now. When will it end? Who knows…but there is no solid way to argue against it lasting just as long as the warming period that preceded it.

    So all the comparisons are great, but they are not with complete data from both regimes, unless somebody can go back to the previous cooler period and draw from it. I am sure it’s been done.

      2. Unfortunately, Charlie, by the time it does tell, I’d we so not do something, it’ll be too late. In the 70s when scientists begins to think askarels (PCBs) were harmful, different groups of scientists argued that they were not harmful. I know this because I compiled all of the papers written. The company I worked for then led the way in the debate and since then has written the EPA and ASTM standards for pcbs. The warming debate has far too many similarities IMHO

        And TK aren’t you glad you brought up the topic

        Tom we were in the car when I read your comment. It took me a couple of reads to get it and I agree. I then read it to Mac without taking a breath and told him to explain. I think his head was spinning. I has trouble keeping a straight face.

    2. But TK haven’t you said previously that one year can’t be an Indicator?

      I’m afraid I agree with Charlie. I get that some is cyclical but no one can possibly say that our pollution and abuse of this earth has not made a difference. Mac works with pollutants – one of which is PCBs. We may have stopped polluting but the harm has been done and we see it every day right down to the fish we eat. He has been saying for years that we need desalinization plants because it won’t be long before we don’t have enough water

      We know we have done irreparable harm to the land and the water…..how can we think the atmosphere escaped our destruction?

      I was reading this the other day and meant to post it here. Now seems a good time

      http://www.npr.org/2013/09/13/221725348/rivers-on-rolaids-how-acid-rain-is-changing-waterways

      1. But it’s not one year. It’s 1998-2012 that the warming rate has been half of what it was previously.

        That fact isn’t really to boost my position one way or another. I’m kind of middle of the road when it comes to this. I do believe we have an impact on the environment. How can we not since we are part of it ourselves? The degree of impact is where I am a little less in agreement with some, because I know some of the temperature info has been skewed by drop out of key stations. Does it mean certain changes have not taken place? Absolutely not. I just thing the degree is less than we are told. HOWEVER, I have always agreed with you about taking action. We should take care of where we are, regardless of the degree of impact we have on it.

        1. Absolutely TK. The problem is when the nay Sayers are told there might not be a problem, they run with it and it scares me. Of course by the time it matters the politicians will do us in so maybe it doesn’t matter 🙁

          1. we are also going into a really strong cooling phase time will tell if when we go into a warming phase and its worse than the last one it will be to late to alter it.

  18. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    Today as we go into fall in the Northern Hemisphere, the Southern Hemisphere goes into…

    A. Winter
    B. Spring
    C. Summer
    D. Fall

    Hopefully we all get this one right. Answer later today. By the way, fall begins at 4:44 PM today.

  19. Looking at the models, which I have done a lot less of this year, I think we are not looking at any more precipitation for well over a week. I know it’s New England and everything is subject to change, but am I right?

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