Blockage

77 Comments

1:03AM

The low pressure area in the Canadian Maritimes that has now become close enough to throw periodic cloudiness into the region will be instrumental and reducing a future storm threat. The Maritimes low will continue to toss areas of clouds into southeastern New England through Friday before the blocking pattern in the atmosphere relaxes enough to allow it to move to the east and let go of this area. But the fact that it lingered longer than originally expected will be instrumental in keeping a new low pressure area from developing fully and moving too close late in the weekend and early next week. Indications are that this new system will be far enough offshore to keep direct impact away from the region. A high pressure ridge in the Midwest and Great Lakes will nudge eastward and result in a very nice weekend. The low pressure area offshore by Monday will still have to be watched. Some cloudiness may result but will lean away from precipitation making it into the region for now.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

OVERNIGHT: Partly cloudy to mostly clear. Lows 42-52, mildest urban centers and immediate coast. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine and passing clouds. Highs in the 60s, may touch 70 in some inland locations. Wind N 5-15 MPH

THURSDAY NIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows around 50. Wind N-NE 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly to mostly sunny. Highs in the 60s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Low 44. High 64.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Low 46. High 66.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 48. High 68.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 45. High 65.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 47. High 70.

77 thoughts on “Blockage”

    1. Its really been an amazing stretch of weather. Question for u Charlie. When is the latest in this season u would recommend planting new grass seed? Thanks.

      1. Hi Ace, I was going to ask you this morning if you had seeded. Great minds think alike. We are going to rake up the dead stuff and try some seeding this weekend. I didn’t want to do anything if there was a chance of a downpour Monday but now it looks as if we have the benefit of controlling the water – although we also have to do it ourselves!!

        1. I was thinking the same thing Vicki! I was bummed cuz I wanted to get out and seed this weekend too but with the threat of heavy rain didn’t want my hard work washed away. I’m still waiting till early sat morning to make my decision but I think the storm will stay far enough away.

          1. We are doing the same. And what I hadn’t counted on was the Halloween decorations getting in the way. So we have compromised and will see only the worst part.

  4. Thanks TK

    re: Storm Threat

    Well, Canadian now wants to bring it closer and stronger again. 977 mb

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=132&fixhh=1&hh=120

    The Euro, not as close and Much much weaker:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ecmwf&run=00&stn=PNMPR&hh=120&map=na&stn2=PNMPR&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=120&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    GFS, much like Euro, except a bit stronger:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=00&stn=PNM&hh=120&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=00&mod2=ecmwf&hh2=120&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    We shall see. Yesterday, I was about ready to write this thing off.

    Now, I’m not so sure. I’m beginning to think that this system “might” retrograde
    right back on us, or at least close enough to affect us. Not unlike what Henry was
    suggesting yesterday. You know, even Henry has to be correct once in awhile. 😀

    1. NO! We can’t let him be right this time. I have a golf tournament to work on Monday! Let’s stick with the Euro and GFS. 🙂

      1. Sue everything I have seen looks good, infact no rain in seven day forecasts, of course it could change. I suspect pine hills for the golf.

        1. Actually John the tournament is at Marsfield Country Club and it benefits the Cardinal Cushing school. It is a great event and the kids from the school also help. They are the sweetest kids.

  5. TK- thank you and yet another POOF. Oh well. As an older adult, may I also add that the title of this blog gave me the chills 😆

  6. There will be no storm this weekend and we will more than likely finish the month with no rain. Plant the seed this weekend just water daily because things look dry.

    2. John, I’ve often wondered how young grass handles the cold of the winter. I usually put my seed down around the end of November so that it will germinate in the spring. Which is better; now or right before the first snow?

      1. Right now is the best time of the entire year to seed. The warm days, cool nights and watering make this the ideal time. Just make sure your doing a daily watering.

  7. The latest u can seed on average is around Halloween, you don’t need to mow it this year for u to have grass established over winter for next year, I’ve seeded in nov and had it germinated after thanksgiving lol, you have about 6 weeks if you want established grass for next April 🙂

      1. Sod is very high maintenance bc sod is made is perfect conditions along with a bunch of pesticides to them in the growing process, so make sure you have 1-2 inches of loom under sod before laying down, make sure you water it everyday for the 1st 2 weeks after its layed. If you don’t baby it and get on the right watering schedule it can become diseased etc. wouldn’t lay down sod past mid -late Oct on average only bc of the process stated above, hope this helps, good luck!!

    1. Interesting. Perhaps they are really buying into this?

      We KNOW what to read into that. The non-suspecting public would get
      petrified after reading that. 😀

  10. I am right in thinking the stronger the storm gets off the east coast the better chance it has to “back in” on us?

  12. re: 12Z Model Runs

    Canadian is MUCH weaker than previous and more off shore.
    Euro is about the same strength, a bit closer to shore.
    GFS is about same strength and closest of them all, bringing precip to Eastern areas.

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gfs&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gfs&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=108&fixhh=1&hh=114

    NAM is sitting in a precarious position at 84 hours with upper winds retrograding.

    I think we’re going to get wet, even if not the most potent storm going. 😀

    1. OS, the site i used to use to access the ensembles is now a pay site. Do u have access to the ensemble members and their means? Id be curious to see how consistent they are with the operational

    2. Here’s the 12Z Nam at 84 hours:

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=nam&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=nam&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=000&fixhh=1&hh=084

      And here is the 200 MB winds at 84 hours:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_200_wnd_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=200_wnd_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

      300Mb winds:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_300_wnd_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=300_wnd_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

      500 MB winds

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

      I’d say there is a chance this thing BACKS IN ON US. 😀

      1. And looking at the 18Z NAM, (Yes i know it is the 18Z run) it
        lends MORE evidence that this system WILL come up here
        and at least graze us, if not a direct hit. 😀 😀 😀

            1. SIL and mac will dethatch sat. Its only front lawn. I have a business meeting all day sat so have a big “to do” list set up for them :D. We will seed Sunday if all looks ok

  13. Dam!! I was just reading that if you make 55,000 a yr in Oklahoma City it’s equal to 91,000 per yr in Boston, there’s becoming more of a spread

    1. It said people make 35-40,000 a yr and are able to live in a 2,035 sqft home 2 in a half bath for 200,000, with a mortgage of $1,650 a month lol, holy crap i didn’t realize there was that much of a difference.

        1. Also gas is $2.96 per gallon, I’m not saying its better here or there, I’m just noticing that there’s quite a difference in pay scale

            1. My point is that there r a higher percentage of people making 55,000 a yr in ok than 91,000 here, that’s not good people its straight up cheaper there, this so called myth that the pays all equal out is false, it would be easier for someone to make 60,000 in ok and be better off than receiving 97,500 around here, you would have more disposable income in ok

            2. I saw the same house 3,100 sqft down there for 307,000 in a nice nice neighborhood, here 856,000 lol and it may need plumbing

  14. Will be awol on Friday. Down the cape playing golf. 1st time in a long time, so I expect
    to shoot, oh 120-140 ish. 😀 😀

  15. 1.84 inches of rain in August at Logan, a bit over 2 inches this month. The August deficit was about -1.5 inches and September is running a bit more than -.5 inches.

    I have this scenario for early winter (Nov and Dec), based on the pattern the last 6-8 weeks.

    Our region gets side-swiped occasionally by very, very cold shots of air that last a day or so, then the airmass moderates over a 2-3 day period with fair weather and by the time a cold front approaches from the west, its 45-50F, there’s a couple of rain showers accompanying the front and once the front passes, the next side swipe of very cold air arrives and then the process begins again.

    Happy Friday !

    2. Sighhhhh – I’ve been thinking that this may just continue. Although the trend seems to be dry for the majority with one or two events where there is significant accumulation. If we can just time the cold to those events, maybe there is hope.

    1. EURO still says no, GFS says yes but very weak and hangs around for a couple days, Canadian is further west (halfway between EURO and GFS, latest (06Z) NAM at 84 hrs is further west than the 0Z but not yet in the time frame.

      Not liking the divergence of models right now. Feels like tracking a winter storm, will it hit, how far east, will it come back west, will it surprise us at the last minute??

  22. Matt Noyes had a good take on fb about the foliage so far this year. Apparently in areas up north that are approaching peak leaves are dropping rapidly right around peak. Says it might be due to the shortage of rain and dry soils. This year we may have a very small window of peak color before the leaves are gone. Plan accordingly leaf peepers!

  23. Vicki, if ur out there. What type of grass seed are u putting down this weekend? I’ve been looking at a Northeast Mix of Ryegrass, Tall Fescue, and Kentucky Bluegrass. Not sure if its better to go with a mixture or a straight up purebred of one of them

    1. I was thinking Zoysia grass reallly have no idea. The lawn is full sun and dry so I was going to ask at the store. There is a 20% discount at Lowes I believe if you get the starter fertilizer and seed. Sorry – I’m no help.

    1. oops and Ace – YOU ARE DOING GREAT. Sorry didn’t mean to yell but OS would be very proud of you!!

      Why does it look as if it’s raining here? I must be seeing things.

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