Squeezing It In

83 Comments

3:42PM

Though the weather hasn’t really been too bad the last few days, we have had to contend with some cloudy periods courtesy low pressure in the Canadian Maritimes. Bands of low level moisture rotating around the circulation have caused this to happen. As of the middle of Friday afternoon we are finally seeing a more genuine push of drier air work down from the north and northeast, and this should push these clouds out once and for all (from this low). This will set us up for a great end-of-September weekend. But we are squeezing it in, because another low pressure area will be getting its act together over the ocean to the southeast of New England during the weekend, and is expected to move north northwestward, coming close enough to bring wind and some rain to southeastern New England as early as Sunday night, and more likely for much of Monday. The movement of this storm will likely lead to some large ocean swells and some coastal flooding problems (though not likely major). This will be watched. So, September will end on a stormy note. But as October gets underway, it looks like a stretch of fair and warmer weather will arrive.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows near 40 inland valleys to near 50 coastal and urban areas. Calm.

SATURDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-75, upper 60s coastal areas. Wind E up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 40s. Wind light variable.

SUNDAY: Sunny. Highs 70-75, again some 60s coast. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH.

SUNDAY NIGHT:  Increasing clouds. Lows around 50. Wind SE to E 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Overcast. Periods of rain. Highs 60-65. Wind E to NE 15-30 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 47. High 70.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 50. High 73.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 53. High 76.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 56. High 79.

83 thoughts on “Squeezing It In”

  1. Thanks TK.

    Garden variety storm IMHO. Maybe a few decent swells and some big splash over but nothing to worry about.

    1. The only concern I have is the trajectory of the low. East of the track will see a long fetch and that can build some big swells. But I do agree that this should be a relatively minor event.

  2. Thanks TK!

    You know what I’m curious about? This may sound stupid…but I don’t know a whole lot about it so bare me 😉 Can you predict how much lightning there will be in a storm, or if there will be any at all?

    1. It’s almost impossible to predict with the tools we have available to us. Short term predictions can be attempted based on storm behavior of storms in the same regions previously (as in the same day, or even down to the same hour or so). But even that can prove to be unsuccessful. Just a couple weeks ago we had storms around parts of southeastern MA and southern NH in the morning that were prolific lightning producers. Storms in the afternoon in the same areas produced minimal lightning.

      When it comes down to it, the storm structure itself probably plays a big role: How close/strong updrafts and downdrafts are to each other, the amount of rain and/or hail in certain parts of the storm to initiate charge separation, among other things. But it’s virtually impossible to pinpoint such conditions and their immediate results. Just a good idea to be in a safe place around any thunderstorm. 🙂

        2. Thanks for the links Vicki.

          I say it will be a hit and it WILL rain. It’s just a matter of how much wind. Canadian still has most robust system, down to 984 mb. Euro gets us as well. Fairly good system as well.

          1. You are welcome but I’m glad you are back. While ACe did an exceptional job, I was feeling pressure 😉

            How was golf?

            Mac finally came home happy. He got 2nd for season in A league, closest to ion and lowest net today. I’m thinking of ways to spend the $$ 😉

  8. Worse case for Monday a little rain and wind with the brunt of it close to the cape. Need the rain and this is no big deal at all. That’s worse case and that may not even happen.

      2. Time will tell oldsalty as that’s just my thought. I would like to say to you that I always appreciate all of your hard work with any storm that may threaten us. You are an absolute total asset to this blog and I think I can speak for all of us. Hope your golf game went good.

  12. Yep north nothing I can see lends me to anything major here in boston. I are winds barely gusting to 35-40 at times.

    Also ran qpf for MVY and it’s about 3/4 inch and gusts up to 40+ mph at times.

  13. Today’s Acu-SORT-OF-Weather Trivia Quiz.

    Which weather phenomena are musical composers most likely to capture in their scores?

    A. Wind
    B. Falling snow
    C. Spring
    D. Thunderstorms

    Answer later today.

    1. Hahahaha. That’s a tough one. I’m a fan of New Age music and have songs with all

      I’m tempted to say A but will go with D and both are probably wrong

      Although I’m assuming by capture you mean sound. If you mean overall concept, I’d go with C

      I’m taking this too seriously aren’t i 🙂

      D

      1. Unless of course “capturing” means with music and not with sound and then it’s probably B 😯

        Vivaldi comes to mind but then he did all four seasons.

        Can you tell I’m working today and amusing myself between tasks 🙂

  15. An interesting scenario ……

    The 0z GFS takes a tropical system over western Cuba into the eastern Gulf, landfalls it in Tampa, FL, crosses Florida, remerges it into the Atlantic just east of the Georgia coastline and then entrains a good slug of its moisture into what looks like a sharpening trof approaching New England from the west for a decent rain event. This is many, many days out.

    The 12z run will show sunshine and NW flow. 🙂 🙂

    1. Just saw that too. Interesting. 06gfs had it too but further east of the coast. Definitely something to watch, as it wasn’t very long term for the Gulf but it was weak.

  16. Beautiful morning for pop Warner football games, 1st game is at 10am and then college football later today/evening 🙂

  17. For those that did not see it before … repost.

    Today’s Acu-SORT-OF-Weather Trivia Quiz.

    Which weather phenomena are musical composers most likely to capture in their scores?

    A. Wind
    B. Falling snow
    C. Spring
    D. Thunderstorms

    Answer later today.

  18. Re: Monday/Tuesday

    Canadian, Euro and Ukmet all take system off shore now.
    GfS grazes coastal areas:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=066&fixhh=1&hh=060

    NAM throws precip inland more, before milling about and moving off:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=nam&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=nam&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=078&fixhh=1&hh=060

  19. Glorious stretch of weather. I mean stupendously nice. I’ve lived in many places, but no place is as nice as NE in fall. Of course, there are exceptions (October 2005 comes to mind), but generally these stretches of weather are what we get here. Some changes may be looming, however, starting next weekend. Would not be surprised to see a shift in the block and jet stream which has been giving the Midwest lots of rain. This said, it’s rare in NE that we then get days and days of rain in autumn. My hunch is that we’ll definitely get some more rain chances, but also some really nice cool, bright days in the 50s and low 60s with an onshore breeze (High over the Maritimes) that – unlike during spring – tends not to give us fog and clouds.

  20. When is peak color just south of Providence? The only reason why I ask I’d bc there’s less than 10% color, as supposed to wrentham it’s about 15-20% color,

    2. There’s no color in and around Philadelphia and points south. They tend to peak the first week of November. There’s also a sharp cut-off between coastal areas and inland (which can only be 10 miles inland). Compare, for instance, Lexington and Boston right now. You’ll see a fairly significant difference. Coastal RI is the last area in NE to peak.

    1. On schedule here also with the regular not so healthy early maples. And as has been pointed out, they are dropping leaves as soon as they peak so we might get raking done earlier than the past few years also – yay!

      1. When Maples drop early it can take away from the peak because they are among the most colorful trees. Ah well!

        1. You are correct. But we have the same ones that drop early every year and they are in the minority fortunately. Just a few that are not healthy

          1. Oops it was the reports from up north that said all trees are dropping as soon as they peak. Perhaps lack of rain. Not sure if it will happen here. Early is now what used to be the norm However.

  22. I think it might be behind here by a week or 2, would having more rain south of Boston have anything to do with it? From judging around here leaves r about 20% color and have no signs of dropping, as always there seems to be a big difference where Vicky house will be bare in mid Oct and just peaking at my house?

    1. I actually just read that for Boston and Providence areas peak color this year is the 19th-30th, and it specified that peak color inland locations is 10th-20th, so that makes sense

    2. Charlie we have had leaves until Thanksgiving the past few leaves. I do not ever remember being bare by mid-October

    2. From NWS this PM:

      — Changed Discussion —
      AN OCEAN STORM WILL LIKELY COMPLETELY MISS OUR REGION OR JUST RESULT IN A VERY LOW IMPACT ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM AFTERNOON/S.
      — End Changed Discussion —

  26. I liked how he ended it and he is right that nobody should issue a winter forecast now. Any professional met or outlet that would do so now is doing nothing but guessing

  27. Hi everyone. Hope all is well! Just quick note. I am noticing a trend with the ECMWF OP to be too far east with its east coast ocean storms and too far west with its precip bulls-eyes with storms that are emanating from the Ohio or Tennessee valley. Also its total event precip has been over done about 60% of the time since August 1st. Tells me it is having pattern recognition problems, as similar issues occurred in 2011 when it missed regularly on potential storms in the 60-144 hour range. Just something to keep in mind as the seasons roll onward. FYI-ECMWF ENS has been much better than the OP.

  28. As I said yesterday pretty much a non event for most of our area.

    Thanks JMA for the info. I think the euro will be back to its usual self soon. I do agree that the ensembles have been very good.

  29. Answer to Today’s Acu-SORT-OF-Weather Trivia Quiz.

    Which weather phenomena are musical composers most likely to capture in their scores?

    A. Wind
    B. Falling snow
    C. Spring
    D. Thunderstorms

    The correct answer is D.

    1. I’m trying not to laugh loudly enough to wake everyone up. I probably could have just said D huh? I think I tend to be a rad too literal. Thanks longshot. I hope everyone enjoys these even half as much as I do. I’m awfully easy to please I know 🙂

  30. It’s been foggy for the last 4 hours or so… was this expected? I hadn’t heard anything about fog for the overnight.

    2. About 8 pm last night, driving through Marshfield, the fog was forming and it was interesting. One second, it would be thickly fogged in, only to emerge into nothing. It would have been perfect for Halloween night.

  32. Just looking ahead to Wednesday where some areas of SNE could approach if not exceed the 80 degree mark. Summer is trying to hang on here and as I always say it rarely goes quietly.

  33. Good morning all.

    Well I guess it is safe to call the all clear with this coastal system. All models this morning keep it off shore. 😀

    Gloomy forecast:

    No Gronk and of course no Amendola for today’s Pats game. Therefore, it most likely spells a loss. Hopefully they will fight hard and pull it out. Should be fun to watch regardless.

  35. Just updated the forecast.
    Not happy with missing the fog in that forecast. Of course a few people woke up and said “fog? what fog?” It wasn’t everywhere, but where it was, you sure knew it. Just vanishing here in Woburn now. Low clouds should be gone soon.

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