Warmer Pattern

100 Comments

1:28AM

We’re back in a warmer pattern as October arrives, and it looks like it will be around for a while. Sensible weather during the next 7 days will be driven by the following players:

-Dry, mild weather today between an ocean storm to the east and high pressure to the southwest.

-Warm wedge Wednesday as high pressure sinks to the south of the region with a west wind and high pressure also dominates aloft.

-Weak almost unnoticeable cold front passes early Thursday knocking the temperature back only slightly with more fair weather.

-Warm front approaches Friday, bringing more clouds. Shower threat should be absent but will watch it.

-Weekend: Taste of summer behind the warm front and ahead of a cold front, which may get close enough by Sunday to set off a few showers.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Highs in the 70s. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows in the 50s. Wind light W.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 80s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 57. High 79.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 55. High 68.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 56. High 81.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Isolated showers. Low 57. High 79.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered showers. Low 57. High 77.

100 thoughts on “Warmer Pattern”

  1. TK, thank you for the update. I think the Sox 1st game begins around 3 pm on Friday and forecast looks good.

    1. 2nd game on Saturday begins at 5:30. The weekend is going to be quite muggy according to JR this morning.

    2. NO, please see below…

      because the information this site provides is necessary to protect life and property, it will be updated and maintained during the Federal Government shutdown.

  5. Old Salty says:
    October 1, 2013 at 8:38 AM
    re: the Gronk

    Mrs. OS has a theory.

    According to a story yesterday from Peter King, the Gronk was healthy and ready to play. So then, why didn’t he play?

    Mrs. OS theory: He didn’t play because Belichick was PUNISHING him for this:

    http://www.tmz.com/2013/02/04/rob-gronkowski-super-bowl-party-las-vegas-video-broken-arm/

    Based on what Belichick did with Welker, it doesn’t surprise me one bit! 😀
    Reply
    Old Salty says:
    October 1, 2013 at 8:39 AM
    With all the talk of a Sea Breeze for Wednesday, Eric Fisher last night said that
    there would be a substantial WEST wind with NO talk of a sea breeze. IF this is true, then a record high temperature for tomorrow IS on the table. 😀
    Reply
    Old Salty says:
    October 1, 2013 at 8:46 AM
    From one of the NOAA websites:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/

    Due to the Federal Government shutdown, NOAA.gov and most associated web sites are unavailable. However, because the information this site provides is necessary to protect life and property, it will be updated and maintained during the Federal Government shutdown.
    Reply
    Old Salty says:
    October 1, 2013 at 8:47 AM
    Could I ever get on a RANT about this! I would fear expulsion from the blog If I did so.
    Reply

    1. The problem would be that if you started a rant, I’d have to chime in. We all know that 🙂 And we’d both be tossed off.

  7. I think it’s very possible we have the NFL 3 times a week starting in a couple yrs Tue night/Thu night and then Sun 🙂

    2. That could happen. This is the second straight year we have had a game every Thursday night where before the Thursday night games would start week 9. Football to me is the most popular sport in America.

      1. Every Saturday night would be the best. And also move Super Bowl to Saturday night instead of stupid Sunday.

          1. I also agree with Saturday. I also miss having Saturday games the last two weekends of the season.

  8. Or expand the season and have the Super Bowl the Sunday of Presidents’ Day weekend. The day after the Super Bowl is the day most people call out from work so why not have it on a holiday weekend where the next day is a federal holiday and most people are off from school and work.

  9. Thanks TK. I see you have showers for Sunday (possible). We are having our annual memory celebration for my mom on Sunday midday and it’s at a park in Belmont so has to be outside. Is it too early to have any idea of when rain impact would be? Thank you!

    1. Early call is minimal impact. I may remove that threat pending examination of new data. 🙂

  10. Thanks TK! It turned out to be a beautiful day for the golf tournament yesterday. We had a helicopter ball drop and with the clear blue skies later in the day it was an awesome view watching the helicopter fly up and down the fairways near the clubhouse.

  11. Thanks TK. What a stretch if weather.

    Also appears that weak El Niño is looking more and more likely. You know what that means 🙂

    1. El Nino alone is not a lock for a snowy winter.

      Need the right combination of other things. QBO is key.

        1. Yes.

          But we may not have some of those in place this time.

          I wonder if we don’t end up dry when it’s cold and wet when it’s warm (which may not be too often). Still a long way to go. I’m barely even thinking about my winter forecast before the end of October and issuing it no earlier than November 15. But a little advance speculation … nothing wrong there. 🙂

    2. Sure do Hadith, weak means snowy winter but I agree it’s too early right now. Speculation is cool though.

  13. Relia-Euro is in. The story is WARM for the first half of October. I’m going with it. It’s actually not that unusual, especially since the West is going to be on the cool side. Just stable mean trough/ridge pattern. We may get a healthy dose of tropical rain sometime early next week. Here is where I think the ridge may be a bit too strong as depicted on the Euro (even though I believe it has the general pattern right) and am leaning toward a blend of 12z Euro & GFS.

    1. Showery tropical rains or heavy soaking downpours? Might need to cover my new grass seed with hay if its the latter

      1. We are ready but won’t plant until tomorrow. May have to get hay also just in case. Does it work?

          1. We have this little problem. It’s called working 10-12 hour days :). Its getting planted tomorrow

            2. I know but this is prime time, just find the time and get it done. I don’t think you need to wory about hay. Just get it down.

  19. Hello, it’s getting super dry down here, dustbowl, lake isn’t super low but it’s low for early Oct, I need rain!! 🙂

  20. Regular Saturday NFL games will never happen as long as there is college football. Only the playoff games in January and a couple late-season games.

    1. For years there had been Saturday games in late December on the schedule. I think about 3 or 4 games each of the last two weekends of the season. But now with so many college bowl games I guess the NFL gave in to the NCAA.

  21. It now appears that most of October will have above normal temps for eastern Canada and the northeast CONUS.

    I guess it is better than measurable snow (October 2011), but still………..UGH! 🙁

    2. I remember that October storm quite well and being without power for four days. Heavy wet snow which caused the biggest power outage in the history of CT.

      1. Hi JJ – I remember waking up in the night to brilliant flashes of light and the sound of arc overs. Amazing storm. We didn’t have power last year either due to Sandy. It’s the reason I had said here that my grandson actually thinks no power goes hand-in-hand with Halloween and we cannot convince him otherwise 🙂

  22. Totally agree tk, meant to say this earlier, they make Alota money on ads and sat night tv ratings will not be the highest bc people r out and about

  24. Vicki – a helicopter drop is a way to fundraise at a golf tournament. We sold 500 balls at $10 a piece and they were all numbered. A helicopter hovers over a hole and drops the ball. The ball that goes in the hole, or closes to the hole, wins the prize. In our case the prize was $1000 and there were actually two winners so they each took home $500.

    1. Today’s 850MB temperatures are predicted to be in the 15-20 Degree C
      range. That is 59-68 F at about 5,000 feet. Depending on mixing etc.
      the potential high temperature would be 86.5 to 95.5. Of course our sun angle
      is pretty low, so I seriously doubt that potential could be reached.

      Forecast high is about 84. Is it out of the realm of possibility that a run at
      the record is possible?

      Here is the 06C Canadian 850MB temps:

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=gemreg&stn=TT850&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gemreg&stn2=TT850&hh2=009&fixhh=1&hh=012

      NAM as well:

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=nam&stn=TT850&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=nam&stn2=TT850&hh2=015&fixhh=1&hh=012

      NOTE: AFter 18Z or so, 850MB temps cool off with frontal passage, so we
      probably won’t make it. Will be interesting none-the-less to watch. 😀

  28. The boring weather pattern continues. The big weather story in the U.S. will be a storm system giving accumulating snow across parts of the Rockies on the cold side of the storm and the potential for severe weather in the Plains on the warm side of the storm.
    I wonder if this will be The Weather Channel’s first name winter storm???

      1. Hi North…. I did not see the names. I know last year they made it through the entire alphabet.
        To me if your going to name a storm it should be 6 plus inches of snow over a wide area or ice accumulations 1/4 or greater over a large area.

        1. I like the name Gemini and hope it’s a doozer 🙂 Otherwise, I dislike the idea and agree with you, JJ!

        1. Hi Vicki,

          She has good days and bad days. SE goes back for a CT scan on Monday to see if the fluid near her pancreas is gone. If it is they will set a date to remove her gallbladder, if not she will go to Boston and have the fluid removed. She is happy to be home though. Thanks for asking.

          1. I’m glad she is home also. I know I’d want to be. I will keep her in my thoughts that the news is good Monday and that they can remove the gallbladder so that she can get back to feeling better.

  29. Hello Everyone,

    Hope all is well!

    Anyone know if it’s going to rain on Saturday? I’m having a house party at 4pm and haven’t had a chance to catch the weather at all.

    Thanks,
    TJ

    1. Hi TJ – I don’t have an answer but it is always nice to see you here. Hope Saturday works out for you!

  30. Logan at 11AM: 75 with dew point 55 and West wind at 8 mph.

    Not going up fast enough to approach record PLUS wind is fairly light at this
    point and “may” allow for a sea breeze which of course would kill any chance
    at a record high temp. 😀

    1. From the NWS:

      WARMING RATHER QUICKLY WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING TO H85 WHERE TEMPERATURES PER THE RAP MODEL CURRENTLY RESIDE AROUND +16C

      They say Highs in the low to mid 80’s.

      With 16C at 850MB, I see a “potential” high of 88. Will it get there? Probably not.

      But I watch just the same. 😀

  31. Latest Logan Obs:
    Last Updated: Oct 2 2013, 11:54 am EDT
    Weather: A Few Clouds
    Temperature: 77.0 °F (25.0 °C)
    Dewpoint: 57.0 °F (13.9 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 50 %
    Wind: from the West at 12.7 gusting to 19.6 MPH (11 gusting to 17 KT)
    Visibility: 10.00 miles
    MSL Pressure: 1010.9 mb

    Well, at least there won’t be a sea breeze

    Looks to me that high temperature will max out at around 81 or 82.

    We shall see. 😀

    1. Latest Logan Obs:

      Last Updated: Oct 2 2013, 12:54 pm EDT
      Wed, 02 Oct 2013 12:54:00 -0400
      Weather: Fair
      Temperature: 80.0 °F (26.7 °C)
      Dewpoint: 55.9 °F (13.3 °C)
      Relative Humidity: 44 %
      Heat Index: 80 F (27 C)
      Wind: West at 16.1 MPH (14 KT)
      Visibility: 10.00 miles
      MSL Pressure: 1010.6 mb

  32. 76.3 with a 58 DP and a gusty wind well into the teens. Beautiful clear sky dotted with a few stray clouds

      1. I tried to listen on my computer but coujldn’t hear. I will listen on my tablet later. Thank you!!

      1. Hehehe. I never took it seriously. Unless of course Gemini is a big storm. I figure its my only chance. Vicki will never be a hurricane.

Comments are closed.