Unguided

73 Comments

7:54PM

In my opinion, the models are applesauce today so I’m making a 7 day forecast with very limited use of the ECMWF model and a touch of meteorology. 🙂

This is how I envision it unfolding during the next 7 days:

Nearly stationary frontal system wavers around southern New England into Sunday before pushing north as a warm front. Odds favor the front being over northern MA or southern NH much of Friday and a little further south on Saturday, which will be the cooler of the 2 days. Also, lots of clouds will dominate, and though the rain threat will not be continuous or even that strong a chance, we cannot rule out some occasional shower activity. A stronger push of air from the south will send the entire region into a warm and more humid air mass on Sunday. The shower threat will be minimal, at best, on this day and for now I’m leaving them out of the forecast. A cold front will move into the region from the west on Monday, with an increasing shower threat, and even the possibility of thunderstorms. In addition, tropical moisture from the remains of Tropical Storm Karen (currently in the Gulf of Mexico), is expected to make a run up along the front and may enhance rainfall somewhere in the later Monday through early Tuesday time frame. With less confidence (due to the time distance), I will say that it should clear later Tuesday and cool briefly as it dries out, followed by a fair and warmer midweek as high pressure builds again.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (RI, eastern MA, and southern NH)…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows 53-58. Wind W under 10 MPH shifting to N.

FRIDAY: Variably cloudy – limited sun. Slight chance of showers. Highs 67-76, coolest east-facing shores. Wind N to NE 5-15 MPH in southern NH and northeastern MA, SE to S 5-15 MPH elsewhere.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Lows 53-58. Wind E to SE up to 10 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of showers early. Highs 63-72, coolest coastal areas. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Foggy areas especially South Coast. Lows 55-60. Wind SE under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs in the 70s except upper 60s South Coast.  Wind SE to S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Occasional showers. Chance of heavier rain late. Low 62. High 72.

TUESDAY: Cloudy start with rain possible. Sunny finish. Low 58. High 67.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 50. High 73.

THURSDAY: Sunny. Low 53. High 78.

73 thoughts on “Unguided”

  1. You only compared the models to applesauce because you had applesauce for dinner (or so you told me) 😛 hahaha

    Thanks TK!! 😉

    1. Excuse me but apple sauce was only PART of my dinner. 🙂 The most important part was the pork chops! Peter Brady, eat your heart out!

  12. JR said that on this date in 1987 they had 6-10 inches of snow in the Berkshires. While I remember the April 29, 1987, storm, I had forgotten that.

    1. There was also accumulating snow in the northwest hills of CT on that date. I was only three years old at the time so I don’t remember it.
      An impressive event for so early in the season but not to the magnitude of the October Noreaster in 2011.

  18. Wow, I just checked out the radar. I’m surprised the rain is holding together as well as it is. I thought on the tv casts last night, the idea was this stuff would be weakening as it moved into our local region.

  21. Fascinating to see a potential Hurricane and Blizzard at the same time within the lower 48 states. Got to love weather!!

    1. And a severe weather outbreak on the warm side of that storm system producing the blizzard like conditions in parts of the west.

  23. Regarding the Hazardous WX Outlook for WY that Hadi posted, it mentioned to stay away from RR Crossings if at all possible. Of course one should be cautious on approach of one regardless of the weather, but why should they be avoided during snowstorms in particular??

    I don’t ever recall seeing those type of warnings posted around these parts.

    1. That’s odd. I don’t ever remember seeing that either. Do they have the same warning mechanisms in that area of the country that we have?

    2. I suspect because the snow is going to stick differently on the track than it would on the road. And if you did not have 4×4 or proper tires it could become quite challenging I think. I do not think that it would be for electrical precautions. Just a guess. Go sox.

      1. But that would be the case anywhere, no? It’s common to see signs warning that bridges freeze faster than roads but I’ve not seen that one. As I said, it may be more common in that area??

  24. Ok maybe I was not the ONLY one that missed the coverage and intensity of today’s rain but certainly not my best forecast. 🙁

    However, it’s not hanging around long enough to mess with the game! 🙂

    1. I had big yardwork plans this afternoon. I guess they will have to wait until next week…oh well. 🙁

  25. Moore pitching a NO-NO for the Rays. What a way to start the post season!(@(#*(!@*#(!*@#*

    One good thing, Moore hasn’t been lasting more than 5 or 6 innings per outing
    lately, even when good. Let’s hope he is out of the game after 6 innings! 😀

  27. I just saw a poll on Facebook from The Weather Channel. They want people to vote on which storm pics they are more interested in seeing…Tropical Storm Karen or Winter Storm Atlas.

    1. I don’t care to see ANY photos from a NAMED Winter storm.
      It’s A Complete Farse TWC has lost ALL credibility!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
      !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  29. Got quite a bit of rain here, .63 today, going out to eat now, enjoy the night 🙂 Go Patriots!! 🙂

  30. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    On this date in 1987, which one of the following occurred?
    A. Total eclipse of the sun
    B. 18” of snow in the Berkshires
    C. Hurricane Gloria hit
    D. Comet Hale-Bopp appeared

    Answer later today.

  31. North and everyone. After your kind comment the other day, north, I emailed rainshine. She is still not feeling well after four weeks. Her husband has been sick for two weeks. It is certainly a serious cold. She thanked you for your concern, North, and said she hopes your mom is better. I told her what you had said the other day.

      1. Thanks for reaching out to her. She certainly has not had a good year. I hope she and her husband start to get better soon.

  32. Karen has become a weak sister destined to poofiness. Because she is so weak and may not even be tropical at landfall, I have to think that this would minimize any effects here in a few days. 😀

    On another note:

    CMC, GFS and NAVGEM ALL have a tropical system in the Atlantic approaching
    the Leeward Islands. CMC most intense of the 3:

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2013100500&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=180hr

    Sorry, the other site doesn’t have last night’s 0Z run available.

      1. Very clever. Thanks for sharing.

        Unfortunately some are not getting direct messages so sadly won’t get this.

  36. I love snow but not in October. I want to enjoy the fall colors and then it can snow once the leaves in the yard are all picked up. Were close to moderate color right now where I am in CT.

  37. Tossed in a quick update!

    Heading to Rindge NH for a giant fireworks display at 9:30PM at Franklin Pierce University. Listening to the Sox on the protracted road trip up Route 119, with a stop for dinner at McD’s (because today is Ray Kroc’s birthday). Hey there’s NOTHING wrong with a Big Mac and fries once in a while! 😀

    Watching the Bruins on DVR delay around midnight.

    Go Sox! Go B’s!

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