The Week Ahead

131 Comments

7:42AM

Cold front sweeps west to east across the region today and tonight into mild and humid air, setting off showers and possible thunderstorms. High pressure builds in Tuesday and holds through midweek with great weather. A disturbance may cause a few more clouds Friday. Watching a storm potentially south of the region over the weekend – should stay south but too early to be sure.

TODAY: Foggy morning. Cloudy and showery afternoon. Highs 60s South Coast, 70s elsewhere. Wind S increasing to 10-20 MPH with gusts around 30 MPH.

TONIGHT: Cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms, some with heavy rain. Lows around 60. Wind S 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Clearing early then mostly sunny. Highs around 70. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY: Mostly clear. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Highs around 60.

SATURDAY & SUNDAY: Partly sunny – more clouds to the south. Lows upper 30s to middle 40s. Highs upper 50s to middle 60s.

131 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

    1. This also from the Taunton office of NWS:

      SAILING EFFECT DUE TO LEAVES STILL ON TREES INCREASES THE THREAT FOR SOME TREE DAMAGE POSSIBILITY FOR POWER OUTAGES.

      THE HIGH SHEAR ALSO SUGGESTS THE LOW PROBABILITY OF A LOW-TOPPED TORNADO THREAT PARTICULARLY WITH ANY INDIVIDUAL CELLS THAT DEVELOP OR ON THE IMMEDIATE VCNTY OF A CONVECTIVE FINE LINE…WHICH COINCIDES WITH SPC 06Z TORNADO THREAT.

    1. One of the areas we seeded is what used to be a strip along our driveway about 3 feet wide that had hostas and plants. I always hated it so we tore that up, put down dirt and seeded. I’m afraid the dirt we put down will all wash into the street tonight along with the seed. Even if we put down hay with the wind, it’d just be all over the neighborhood.

      1. lol, i feel ur pain Vicki. I did just the opposite, the area along our driveway and in front along the street I edged out and left bare dirt with no seed, to be used as beds for hostas and other perennials in the springtime. The grass never grew in those areas anyways and always looked bad and trampled by cars and whatnot. Hopefully it works out for you! Keep me posted when u have new seedlings 😀

  4. re: Charlie and the Pats from yesterday’s blog

    S’all good Charlie. I like your passion I really do 🙂 Sometimes I just wish we held our sports teams, coaches, and owners more accountable when they lose and don’t put themselves in the best position to win. We should have the same passion when they lose as when they win and criticize them accordingly. This esp goes for the Pats who I think have gotten a pass in this town. Are they good? Yes. Could they be better? Of course. Have their been things belichick and ownership could have and should have done to make the team better and be even more dominant since the 3 championships? Absolutely. And that’s where my issue is and the heart of the criticism I would give the Pats.

    1. Ace,

      I agree 100%. And I am particularly disturbed over the senseless loss
      of Wes Welker! Sometimes I just think that Kraft is a penny pinching
      old miser.

      1. Was it Kraft or was it BB’s ego? We probably won’t ever know. Or will we look back and say…..brilliant move? My SIL is currently furious with BB – which is incredibly uncharacteristic of him. I’m more in the mode of let’s watch and see the rationale. Pats didn’t get as good as they are without it so perhaps it’s just what we do not know.

    2. I am always torn on this topic. I listened to Williams discuss fan loyalty from the time I was too young to know what he meant until the time I was certainly old enough to understand. There are greats in the sport world – in every sport – and I saw firsthand exactly what it meant to him when fans booed or were critical – media included. His view, very abbreviated, was that even when a player is doing badly, he is still doing his best and it is far harder on him than it is on the fans. It’s at that point that the player needed support most of all. And I can say with all honesty that even as a very young individual I could tell it was personal and it hurt.

      The greats do not get great without being the hardest on themselves. Woods, Williams, Yaz, Brady, Manning, and the list goes on. I try really hard not to criticize individual players for one bad play or one bad week or any slump. I don’t always succeed.

      BTW – Charlie, he was not a fan of Boston sports fans because they have always been fair weather fans. He had some ways of showing it that I certainly don’t approve of 😉

  5. Back to the topic of weather just got done spitting in Brookline. I’m really curious too see how much rain we actually get and also the wind. Maybe not that big of a deal. Any thoughts.

  6. Tornado watches already up for a large portion of the northeast, from DC all the way up to NYC and into upstate NY. Nothing here yet.

      1. WILL this be expanded Eastward???

        That is the question?

        Current discussions indicate NO, but let’s see what the updates
        show after lunch.

  7. Based on 9 AM obs. Warm front runs from just North of Taunton to just South of Worcester to just South of Springfield and Pittsfield. It IS making Northward progress.
    We shall see what happens with it. Looks to get pretty warm and muggy ahead of this
    approaching front.

  8. 56.7 here with 57 dp – still quite foggy.

    Is there a risk of tornado in this area?? Seems weather around the country is odd with 4-ft snows to an F4 tornado to flooding. I saw that Atlanta is one of the most tornado prone cities and was surprised. Not saying it isn’t an area that doesn’t/wouldn’t have a tornado but there are many other areas I think of being more prone.

    1. Vicki,

      According to the latest discussions, probably NOT a risk of tornadoes
      in Eastern sections, however, given that we are now in the warm muggy air mass and that front approaching, I’m not sure it can be totally and completely ruled out. Let’s see what the next update brings from the SPC and the latest
      from the NWS. 😀

        1. Btw, if you noticed in the tornado watch discussion, the risk for strong tornadoes was LOW, however the risk for
          tornadoes (ie F0 and F1) was MODERATE. Clearly
          the SPC thinks there WILL be action. We just don’t know
          IF that action will translate Eastward. Time will tell.
          Again, current discussions indicate NO.

  9. Based on 10AM obs, I’d say front has just moved through Boston.
    Dew point jumped to 65.

    Norwood up to 71. Blue hill 68 with SOUTH wind gusting to about 25 mph.

    We’re in the SOUP, which does open up at least the “possibility” of some ACTION later on. Probably not, but it needs to be watched.

  10. Latest from NWS Taunton Office. Looks like they are NOT ruling out tornadoes, even
    in Eastern Sections.

    GIVEN HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THIS INSTABILITY ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS WITH THIS FINE LINE LATER TODAY. IN ADDITION…0-1 KM SHEAR 40-45 KT AND 0-1KM HELICITY 300-400 M2/S2 WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE SO CANT RULE OUT AN ISOLD TORNADO IN THIS ENVIRONMENT.

    Could get interesting. We shall see.

    Not for nothing, but I think the NWS local office and the SPC might NOT be in agreement. Who ya gonna believe?

    We’ll keep an eye on things. 😀

    1. Currently, the most intense storms are in Eastern PA. Cloud tops are relatively low with maximum tops at 16,000 feet. As a result there is NO hail at all in
      any of the storms. NWS did mention LOW_TOPPED convection and that is
      exactly what’s out there. No current vortex signatures. 😀

  11. Temp just literally jumped up 10 degrees to 70 with a 70 dp. Blue sky with plenty of clouds moving N/NE at a healthy clip. Wind also picked up.

        1. Looks pretty ominous.

          Wasn’t the idea this front was supposed to be bookin’ it? Doesn’t look like it’s moved much in the last couple hours.

    2. Tk, Many thanks.

      Btw, is it a REAL threat OR are our friends at the local NWS
      crying wolf again? I just don’t know when to believe them.

        1. I agree – good question OS. It’s gone from gusty to windy here. We just had power out for a short period. Starting to rain now but looking at radar seems short lived.

  15. It sure looks as if it will slide west of us but then I don’t read radars as well as others here.

          1. crying – not howling 😉 and I figure you and I read radars just about the same so I figure maybe yes, maybe no.

  16. From the SPC about an hour ago:

    WITH AREA VWPS REVEALING VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD —
    PARTICULARLY ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE AREA…THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF BRIEF TORNADOES CONTINUES DESPITE THE LACK OF LIGHTNING. THIS THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY — SPREADING EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

  17. Is this real?

    Wunderground Nexrad radar stats on one convective cell.

    B3 43 dBZ 14,000 ft. 2 kg/m² 0% chance 0% chance 0.00 in. 84 knots SSW (211)

    Moving FROM the SSW at 84 KNOTS!!!! Talk about screaming fast!!! 😀 😀 😀

      2. We had it too, Sue. Very dark, very quick. We are in and out of sun and white clouds and dark clouds. Still lots of wind. Fun day to sky watch that is for sure

    2. It seems to me that was all that was promised also, Hadi. We have had power go out three times already and we are not prone to outages with anything but minor storms. There is discussion of possibilities but again – rain and wind damage and maybe isolate more severe storms were what was forecast.

  22. I’m wondering if actually northern sections would get more of the rain and southern not as much, any thoughts.

    2. Thank you JJ – what do you mean by interior and how widespread is the wind area? As much as I love losing power, I’m working on a deadline doc and if we can keep it up and running until I finish, I’ll be happy. Of course if it goes down I won’t mind either 😐

  24. I am going with 495 corridor west with the area to watch for strong to possibly severe storms to form. I don’t see a widespread outbreak at this time of severe weather. The winds are gusting ahead of the front so I would expect some isolated power outages across SNE.

  25. Really enjoying watching this front – it’s getting very windy and it’s interesting to see the leaves and pine needles come down like snow 🙂 Yes, I said the S word 🙂 Love it all!

    1. I love the S word :). I even liked today’s humidity. I can safely say that now that I know it won’t go on for days and days 😉

    1. There WAS a vortex signature associated with one of the cells in Eastern NY state. Line just about to cross into the Berkshires:

      http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=ENX&type=N0R&showstorms=10&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=1&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

      Don’t know IF it will still show in this loop. It did when I posted it.

    2. Moving into an unstable environment too. Most locales have seen some sunshine and warming during the day

  28. Btw, the storm tops seem to be getting a bit higher with some storms now containing
    hail. Highest tops now to 21,000 feet.

    1. From SPC:

      …NORTHEAST STATES…
      A FORCED LINE OF INTENSE CONVECTION IS TRACKING QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS NY/PA AND THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. INSTABILITY IS QUITE WEAK AHEAD OF THE STORMS DUE TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LIMITED HEATING…DESPITE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F. NEVERTHELESS…IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT CONVECTIVE LINE WILL FURTHER INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG
      ITS LEADING EDGE. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ALSO APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR A RISK OF ISOLATED QLCS TORNADOES. THE STRONGEST FORCING WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE EARLY
      EVENING…WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS WEAKENING WITH TIME FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

      QLCS = Quasi Linear Convective System

    1. Hi Emily. I can’t find where you put the link. I’m sorry. If you can post it again, ill email it to myself this time.

      I agree. I didnt mind the humidity today either. And I loved yesterday. Its the reason I love New England. The variety is amazing.

  32. GOOD AFTERNOON!

    I don’t think it’s going to be that big a deal east of the CT River.

    Minor, isolated wind damage.

    Line has virtually no lightning with it even during its peak.

    1. I like wind and I don’t like tornadoes so that is good to hear. I’m nearly finished with my project so power can go out any time now 🙂

        1. She is referring to the conditions that were somewhat favorable for low-topped tornadic cells not existing this far east. There was at least one tornado warning in NY today, verifying their watch.

  33. Hey TK…how we looking for Woburn…also, when do you think it will end in our fair city? I understand I work with someone you know too! 🙂

    1. Hmm I wonder who that might be. 🙂

      I think in Woburn we see some showers in advance of the line in the 5PM hour and the actual line (or what is left of it) crosses the area after 6:30PM. Some downpours, some gusty winds (maybe a few weaker tree limbs may come down but nothing widespread). I’d be completely surprised if we see any lightning at all.

      1. He’s a punk. 🙂 Saw me on yor site one day and was like “I know that guy!” OK thanks…damn wind is blowing leaves in my driveway and they clog the drainage grate. As “small scale” as this storm is it’s bad timing for me with the leaves.

    1. What storm ?

      As advertised ….TONIGHT: Cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms, some with heavy rain. Lows around 60. Wind S 10-20 MPH and gusty.

      Aren’t you getting winds? We have been gusting to between 10-20 all day. I’m pretty sure sue said she has had winds. Wind picked up here a while ago to high teens and just over 20 mph.

  36. Enjoying reading the posts when I can. Been very busy with school !

    Glad to get the grilling in tonight before the line of showers comes through.

  37. Tstorm warning now just east of Worcester. But line looks to be weakening or am I not reading it correctly ?

    Wind gusting into the 20s here now

  38. This isn’t really a “storm”.

    We are experiencing the weather ahead of and with a fairly robust Autumn cold frontal passage. None of it all that unusual.

    The other issue I have with this: When the NWS has already issued wind advisories and the line of showers is only enhancing the wind that is already gusty ahead of it, is it really necessary to issue severe thunderstorm warnings? You should put in your explanation that some of the strongest winds may occur with the showers’ passage, but let your wind-related advisories take care of informing the public about the wind.

    1. The nws – my old friend – has already sent two txts telling me I am in severe tstorm area. I am not sure any of middlesex cty is but certainly I am not

      2. Later this week into the weekend we may have to start praying again we dont get too much heavy rains, i think that system Old Salty was worried about might be in the cards

            1. Oh I’m not that patient. It used to be before Veterans Day was norm. That’s one month away. Although next grandbaby due around that time so I won’t complain if we wait two months I guess

  41. Front almost through here. Lots of wind. Some rain. DP down to 64 from 70 but temp only dropped a few degrees so far

    1. By tomorrow morning that dp will be even lower with a nice comfortable air mass settling in. And guess we may do this all over again next week.

  42. All I can say is what a freaking JOKE!!

    I just took the trash out. Street isn’t even wet!!!!!!!!!!!

    NWS sucks so does the SPC for that matter.

    1. US National Weather Service Boston MA
      Heavy rainfall threat has diminished across srn New England. Last flood advisory has been dropped. Wind threat continues.

      Really?????????????

    2. I haven’t looked at the nws for months, I get severe tstorm warnings when we aren’t gonna get a storm lol, stopped long ago, no more!! Good luck 🙂

  43. Was just sitting on porch. Had to use pontoons to get to chair as tile is drenched. But nice, drier wind coming thru. I’m not complaining. I enjoyed the wind and the sky and just in time for sleep…….poof 🙂

  44. Yawn….

    Good morning.

    Now what? I guess I just sit here and wait for Winter.

    Btw, anyone interested in seeing Gravity….

    Saw it Saturday night. Cinematography was out of this world. 😀
    Really, it was spectacular. Worth seeing just for that. There wasn’t much of a plot.
    And for a brief time there were 3 actors in the movie, then 2, but most of the movie
    was a solo performance of Sandra Bullock. She did an outstanding job with what they gave her. The premise was fine, but the whole sequence and series of events
    was REALLY FAR-FETCHED.

    1. Would it be important to see on the Big Screen??

      And I had to laugh when you commented that at first there were three actors, then 2. Did one lose her/his gravitational pull 🙂

      1. Yes, I would say BIG SCREEN would enhance your viewing
        pleasure. IMAX would be best. BTW, did I mention it is in
        Real 3D.

        re: actors
        Don’t want to give anything away. Use your imagination. 😀

  46. Not much going on today, lol. The weekend rain threat has pretty much gone poof from the models.

  48. I saw a pic of Boston common in May 1891, and the trees were still bare, and then they had a pick of the present day trees in May, WOW!!! It’s amazing over long periods how much has changed.

    2. What were the 2 dates?

      I’m guessing the 1891 picture was early May, and the present day picture was later in the month. May is the month that most trees leaf out, so of course there will be a big difference from one end of the month to the other.

        1. Very likely.

          Trees react not only to current conditions but up to a few seasons past. And different types of trees react differently.

          However, sunlight remains the main factor in both leafing and foliage change / loss.

        2. Also curious if it was the same exact place within the commons and the same trees. Some trees complete their foliage later than others

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