H Versus L

113 Comments

9:09PM

A multi-day battle between high pressure north of New England and low pressure south of New England will have southern New England on the fence, weather-wise, right through the coming holiday weekend. The low pressure area, made up partially of the remains of Tropical Storm Karen (in the Gulf of Mexico last week), will be cut off from the jet stream, and drifting about off the Mid Atlantic Coast. It will be trying to lift northward while at the same time a big high pressure area centered over southeastern Canada tries to push southward. Though there is a little more uncertainty than usual with this forecast, we will likely see filtered sun across southeastern New England Wednesday as the low remains well to the south, then thickening clouds by Thursday as it pushes more to the north. What remains to be seen as how far north the rain comes. For now the best threat looks like it will be south of the Mass Pike Thursday afternoon into Friday. The low may settle back to the south over the weekend with less rain threat and some reduction in cloudiness, before pushing northward again and increasing both the clouds and the rain threat (especially to the south), by Columbus Day (Monday) and Tuesday. Check back frequently as fine-tuning will be needed.

For now, the updated forecast for southeastern New England looks like this…

TONIGHT: Variable high clouds. Lows upper 30s to lower 40s inland valleys to around 50 coast and urban centers. Wind N up to 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunshine, filtered through variable high clouds. Highs in the 60s. Wind NE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Considerable high clouds. Lows in the 40s. Wind E 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain southeastern MA and RI. Highs upper 50s to lower 60s. Wind E 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain, especially southern MA and RI. Low 48. High 58.

SATURDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light rain South Coast. Low 46. High 61.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 47. High 62.

MONDAY – COLUMBUS DAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain, especially southern MA/RI. Low 47. High 60.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain especially southeastern MA through Cape Cod. Low 46. High 58.

113 thoughts on “H Versus L”

  3. Regarding Charlie’s previous post on the difference in spring foliage on Boston Common in May 1891 vs. May 2013, I wonder if the 1891 photo in question was showing only a relatively small section of the Common with bare trees as opposed to a wide angle view. Even on May 1 or 2, I can’t picture an area as big as Boston Common that not at least a precious few trees not sprouting to some extent regardless of the past winter. If it were mid-April…probably a common occurance especially back in those days. Although I would be curious on the number of trees then vs. today. I believe the common was grazing land for sheep during colonial times?

    Btw TK – Harvey called this weekend a “ticklelish” forecast LOL. 😀

  4. As of this posting, Harvey is leaning more towards any rain this weekend being restricted to the Cape only. Hopefully this scenario continues to verify in future runs.

  5. In Pete’s evening blog, he discusses “cut-off lows” and that 20+ years ago, they were very rare but today are quite common (his words, not mine).

    TK – Do you agree with this and if so, is this all part of our ever-changing climate?

    1. It’s absolutely not true. Look at historical weather maps and you will find plenty of cut offs over the years.

        1. I found the definition. Thanks, TK. Very interesting. I found several other definitions along the way which I’ve bookmarked also.

    2. I am a Pete fan too. I just don’t agree about COL’S. I studied historical maps for a semester in college for a special project. No big changes in the frequency of these.

  8. I hope it does not rain this weekend, i have a morning performance from 9am to 11am then a show in the evening then sunday we have a parade down in south yarmouth.

  9. Hoping to find a somewhat dry day between tomorrow afternoon and Saturday down the Cape to close my trailer for the season. Which day would be my best bet at this point? Thanks

  10. Does this low, sitting just off the mid-Atlantic coastline, have any chance whatsoever of eventually transitioning over to something more tropical ? Seems it will be sitting over the ocean for many, many, many days.

    1. Thanks Vicki, very interesting indeed!

      I read somewhere yesterday due to the gov’t shutdown, all gov’t funded operations in Antarctica will no longer be able to continue. Researchers will be forced to cease all research projects losing years of data. So sad 🙁

  14. Still early is my op. What are they basing it on. Everybody keeps saying this winter will be warm, watch it will be the worst winter ever. Well gas went up and oil down but it is said to be an expensive to heat this winter.

  15. We now have meteorologist telling other meteorologist there wrong, what’s going on lol, also I’m trying to get that pic of the common, 1st I’ve never seen May with bare trees, 2nd I looked at it again and the trees r completely bare in the pic May 13th, it’s not about what time of May it was 🙂 I’ve showed a ton of people and they were in aw

  16. I’ve also seen a pic of bare leaves in Oct, and these were bare trees, not 40% leaves on trees, these trees were completely bare, ik the global warming people supporting this believe in it, but the people that don’t believe will find ways around it by cycles etc etc 🙂

    1. IDK Charlie – I’m having trouble with the idea of no leaves at all on trees in May. It would have meant there was a huge change between 1891 and 1949 when I was born and then it basically stopped between 1949 and say 80s or even 90s and then started up much more gradually. And I fully believe we are seeing warming….manmade and cyclical.

    1. Yayyy!! Congrats Vicki! 🙂 Take care of the little ones!

      I planted last Friday morning so I’m hoping by the weekend…

      1. I think I planted last Tuesday – but some is about 1 inch tall. I look forward to your birth announcement 🙂

        1. You want to water it daily Vicki. Early am would be the best time but just water when you can. I would just water till you shut your hose down. I shut mine down after Halloween.

          1. I tried that but the lawn get total sun in the area I reseeded. It dries up by mid day. So I water lightly afternoon too.

            We don’t shut water off but I know what you mean

            1. Your good. Water twice if you want just don’t drench it. You don’t turn your outside spiket off, it does not freeze. Also is your sil a fan of mothers products. I have been experimenting and like there stuff.

              1. Freeze? The water? I have customers in Bourne that water till Halloween and then irrigation gets shut down during Nov, anyways take it easy John 🙂

                2. Johns question is exactly right. We have the system where water drops below level so it won’t freeze. Most outside water should be turned off. Our SIL who is a plumber installed ours. We do empty the hose once we know we won’t use it though.

              2. Thanks John. Good info. See response below re outside water. I don’t remember mothers products. Was that a recommendation from my SIL?

    1. True Vicki, nothing new. Pretty typical late fall pattern showing there. It’s been a while since we’ve had significant snows in late fall, at least here in southern NE, not counting the Halloween storm a couple years ago.

      1. It’s been a while since we have even had cold halloweens which were the norm back in my day and even in my kids day. The rule was always get a costume you could fit a heavy jacket under. Now I sit on the steps in a sweatshirt handing out candy. I’m not complaining as it’s fun. Last year since we didn’t have power, we had a fire in the firepit in the front yard. I plan to do the same this year as then everyone stops to chat.

        1. I remember those days of having to wear a winter jacket under my costume. I remember a few in a cold pouring rain too.

  20. Vicki, ive have 2 sprinklers set up on timers to go off 3 times a day at 3 hour intervals for about 15-20 mins each. Soil just needs to be moist at all times. My front yard gets full sun all day and this seems to be good to keep it moist. As the grass starts to grow, u should start to wean off the water a bit, much like a baby, lol. Less times to water but for longer durations.

    1. Thank you very much, Ace. I don’t have timers but then we only did the front lawn which one sprinkler will cover. I didn’t know about weaning off the water once it started to grow. Yay 🙂

        1. After the wind a few days ago I have a few leaves in the front yard. Nothing too crazy that will prevent the grass from growing though. You should mow it at some point. I think once the grass hits over 3” u can mow back down to 3.” If you already have an inch of growth i think u will def hit the 3” mark in a couple weeks.

  21. Hello All,

    Busy busy busy at work and at home………

    Cut Off lows….

    I agree with TK. They’ve been around for a long, long time.

    Don Kent used to talk about them.

    Latest NAM wants to bring rain into the area for at least a time.

    We shall see.

    Saturday’s baseball game will be MISERABLE, rain or no rain with that
    NE wind!

    Is it just I, OR is the ocean temperature awfully SLOW to go down this October?
    😀

  25. I don’t see the Giants the winning tonight. They will go 0-6. The defense is a big problem allowing over 30 points every game this season and a lot of turnovers. Surprisgnly the other New York football team is 3-2. At the beginning of the season everyone would have thought the Jets would be the worse team.

    2. I bet u jj’s that by the end of the year both ny teams will have close records of around only 5 or 6 wins

        1. My friend that lives in dallas says it hasn’t been the same as 20yrs ago, and says it will never be like the old days ever again. He also has stopped going to the games, bc when you go to the games in dallas you now have 30,000 of the opponents teams there, they have no home field advantage, good luck 🙂

  27. You dreaming of getting Nicks 🙂

    JJ sorry the cowboys go down this week as the redskins become the team many expected.

    2. It should be a good game Sunday night between these two rivals. I am wondering how the Cowboys come out against the Redskins with two tough losses in a row. Blowing the 20 point lead against the Chargers and last week against the Broncos when they did everything they could have to win that game with the exception of Romo throwing that interception with two minutes left in the game.

    1. On any tree that the leaves have changed, that sure seems to be the case. They change and fall. And the colors in this area are pretty dull. We still have a lot of green. The healthy maples in my yard and area are petty much total green.

  30. The trees that turned early were very bright and vivid but lost their leaves almost immediately. The ones left have dull color and i bet will hold them longer. Seems almost like after the rain last fri and sun the colors were washed away.

  31. For sure they are underdogs john as they should be based on being 1-3 but RGIII will be back in full force Sunday night.

  32. It’s odd to see nuts edge still in the lawns in mid Oct, only the 2nd time Ive seen it in the 20yrs in the industry.

      1. Lol, it’s a summer weed, it’s usually a lime green wide grass blade, it disappears when low temps are consistently below 50 degrees, usually it disappears around Labor Day or shortly there after, I even saw late season crabgrass this year germinate in mid Sept which is also rare.

    2. Mines been gone for over a month and I had tons of it. Detest the stuff and can’t figure how to get rid of it.

    1. Nope – means we all have to move out of MA 😉 Glad that RGIII is back and hope that he remains healthy.

  38. If this same scenario was 2-3+ months from now, I would be tearing out what very little hair I have. We would be missing out on a good size snowstorm with NYC south getting clobbered.

    I am going to have to remember this date if we miss again in a few months. 😉

    1. I usually whine that we never miss out on the rainstorms. I believe this is the second time this month or at least this fall. 😀

  39. Joe B thinks this year meets the analog year of 95-96. If it were to happen we would have plenty of snow this year.

    1. I have been saying that I think it’s early for some of these outlets too be putting up a winter forecast. Most all of them saying warm in the northeast. Watch it will be the opposite and the winter will be cold and way above for snow.

  40. Henry Margusity thinks a coastal storm of a tropical nature will develop early next week even though the current models do not show it. I am certainly no met, but the way Henry described it, it does make sense to me. I hope that if it does happen, it will stay away from SNE like this one is now.

    TK – Do you agree on this possibility?

    2. Eh………… I can see how it can happen but it doesn’t look too likely at this point.

  41. The thing I like about this particular weather setup is …… while the days are coolish to mild, the nights are relatively warm. I cant see it getting much below 55F near the coast tonight. Good for a little late season camping, starting tomorrow. 🙂

    2. Do you have the day off? Several have told me their kids don’t have school tomorrow. Is there a holiday ?? Enjoy Tom

      1. Nope. We’ll be on the road after 3pm, but will be fairly nearby, so, we’ll have plenty of time to set up and eat dinner before darkness sets in.

  43. Updating blog now.

    Looks like the tendency for low pressure near and off the East Coast this week may be replaced with a tendency for high pressure near and off the East Coast next week.

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