Mild Week As Pattern Tries To Reorganize

70 Comments

3:51PM

The overall pattern during the next week or so will be in a reorganizing mode, but not in a major way. A ridge of high pressure continues to sit over the western Atlantic but with time is weakening and flattening. A few weak troughs will be making their way around a larger-scale trough in central Canada, tossing energy this way but never really setting off any major storminess. Eventually this trough will expand and send colder air into the central US, but it may still have trouble staying chilly in the East, including New England, where only brief shots of October chill will begin sometime next week. There is low confidence on the forecast again, like in yesterday’s update, especially beyond a few days. So take what is written below with a grain of salt and check back for updates.

What used to be a cold front will be finishing its final steps as it moves across the Northeast tonight and early Tuesday, producing only some variable cloudiness. The cloudiness tonight will prevent it from being as chilly as it was in some areas early Monday. This front will also not be delivering any real cold air as it washes out, so it will be a mild day Tuesday. A slightly stronger disturbance coming along from the Midwest will send its warm front into the region Wednesday with more cloudiness and a shower threat, leading to a variably cloudy and mild day Thursday but with still some shower risk. The Friday-Monday period will be dominated by a westerly flow, mostly dry weather, but a few disturbances bringing mostly clouds but a lack of precipitation. I’m not sure of the timing of these so the extended forecast will be very sparse of detail for now.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 40s to around 50. Wind S under 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy – least sun morning, most sun afternoon. Highs in the 60s, coolest at the coast. Wind variable up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 45-50, some lower 40s valleys. Wind light E-SE.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Highs upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind SE-E up to 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers. Low 55. Highs 68.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s. Highs in the 60s.

70 thoughts on “Mild Week As Pattern Tries To Reorganize”

  2. Thank you TK

    Nothing unusual in that forecast.

    Accu Weather says COLD late Oct and November, but a benign mild December.
    Hmmm
    We shall see.

    My initial gut feeling is a Mild Winter in the Northeast. 😀

  3. Thanks TK! Loving the fall weather. We head to Disney on the 23rd of this month so I may be asking for a peek into the Orlando forecast before we leave. 🙂

  7. Come on Charlie. Pls try to be objective and not such a homer. Tons of luck but a great play to finish the game. Does this game more confidant for a championship? Losing Mayo, Talib etc…who knows how long for. I doubt long but you have to agree that luck was the reason you won that game. Bree’s is one of the best and chances he does my make a play in 3 drives is put luck for the Patriots.

    1. Thank you hadi. Even though the pats played them good and shut down there te Brady and his receivers messed up when it mattered most, luckily they got one more shot but that was as close to a loss as you can get. And this is coming from a huge lifelong pats fan. In Charlie’s view though your not a true fan if you say there not having a good year, or they need work or they got lucky. They got lucky yesterday because they yes played a good game and yes came close to loosing and yes got real lucky at the end. Ditto for sox except there coming off a tremendous season but battling through unreal pitching and yes they got real lucky last night. Again all coming from a lifelong pats and sox fan.

      1. I agree with TK. There is a fine line. The Pats were spot on in the first half. Doesn’t that mean that Brees was lucky to score in the second. If the game depended on the last play only, then Pats would have lost. Brady won a game against one of the best with rookies. Tough to take that away from them IMHO

          1. I never said it was just luck. It took skill to make the plays that were made. Maybe one can attribute them being in the position to make the plays to luck (which is actually just wrongly used as a label for circumstance).

            Bottom line: Pats won. I don’t care how they did it. It’s in the “W” column.

  8. I was not aware till today that the sox play the next three at Detroit so need at least one win. Tough but it can be done. They just need to get the hits and they will be fine. Defense is playing great. Go sox, 4:07 start tomorrow.

  9. Luck was clearly a big factor, but the play to score obviously was a great throw and catch. Both played a big factor

    1. I don’t know where luck was. Brady and co dominated first half. If that was luck the brees and co dominating second was as well. No?

  11. Lots of talk about major pattern change coming and much colder temps coming this way. I’m not buying it. It seems like a trend this time of year for the models show these huge shifts but its either minor or doesn’t happen at all. Not buying the cold snap in the long range. I think it will be a more gradual cooling.

  12. New lawn took a hit from the frost yesterday morning, i hope it didn’t damage it too much. The frost was sure surprising, I would have gotten some water down overnight to try and protect the little guys.

    1. Oh dear. We only had frost on the car windows – none on the new lawn. The baby grass is about 1.5 inches – maybe 2.

  14. Vicki, luck as in Bree’s and company had 3 chances to close our game and most of the time they do. Brady played well when it mattered.

    1. Exactly. The Saints shot themselves in the foot those last 3 possessions. Their running game is terrible. The only thing I’ll say is the Pats still had to stop them, which I guess without their best run stoppers was a talented feat. But still, they didn’t face the strength of the Saints offense. If the Saints just threw one of their deadly screens at least once in there, its game over.

    2. I understand what you are saying but if one team outplays another, I don’t consider it luck. There is that fine line I suppose.

  16. Ok. Lets end this once and for all. Yes the pats played good as we all know that. But there luck came in the final moments of the 4th. The pats had three chances on offense. First receivers could not catch easy balls, second Brady throws interception right out of the gate, and we all know what the third chance produced, a win. If that’s not luck than I don’t know what is. Receivers almost blew it and Brady almost blew it and all when the game was on the line. Lets get back to weather.

  18. As much as I’m looking forward to a snowstorm October is a bit early. Maybe an inch or 2 is fine but if we get a big one we usually have a pretty mild winter. How about the end of November would be better or beginning of December.

  19. Coastal welcome back to the blog.
    I love the snow but I want to enjoy the falls colors then get the yard raked. After that bring on the snow. When you get accumulating snowfall in October looking at the stats you end up with below normal snowfall for the season.

    1. I’m sure it will hadi. Should we pick a deadline date for winter predictions. I propose December 1st as the cutoff date.

  21. I know one thing it will be opposite of what the Almanac is predicting. I am leaning towards slightly above normal temps and snowfall close to normal.

  22. The current lack of cold up north stands in direct contrast with last year at this time.

    http://kimmirutweather.com/

    Kimmirut, a small community near Baffin Island, has no snow and even the hills surrounding it are almost snowless. Unusual for mid October. The forecast there looks for continued lack of any persistent cold.

    Further south, in Labrador, near Wabush, there is no snow and very mild temperatures. You may recall I sent some webcam shots last October 15th of Wabush, and there was snow and persistent cold. This year a different story:

    http://www.roads.gov.nl.ca/cameras/wabush.stm

    Predicting winter in October is always hard to do. And, I’m not saying that the current lack of cold up north will continue. But, it doesn’t look promising for an early winter at least. The cold has to begin forming soon directly to our north/northwest (not in places like Alaska) for there to be an impact on our early winter. GFS does have some colder weather coming in in the middle of next week (also to New England), but that’s pretty far down the road. We’ll see if this pattern indeed takes over.

  23. Also look at Siberia, which so far has above average snow. Big impact for building the cold in the northern hemisphere.

  24. Something to start thinking about is the lack of precip we are having. No real rain in the next two weeks and nothing really in the past month or so.

        1. This is basically how the summers and falls have gone the last couple of seasons correct. I don’t see it having an impact on winter I think. I’m looking forward to looking things over say the next six weeks. Hadi has a valid point on the weather in Syberia. I’m thinking by six weeks we may have some tell tale signs of some winter pattern. I have not looked at anything and won’t yet but going by that old gut theory I would say above again for snow. That’s a guess not my call yet.

          1. Cold and snow in Siberia is all well and good but we need a mechanism to get it in here. No mechanism, no cold.

            1. That’s why I believe we need a favorable pattern to setup and hoping by end of November early december we see something take shape and get locked in.

              1. A lot of well known mets or drs in the field study the weather in Syberia and what effects it may or may not have on us. Dr Judith Cohan is one of them.

  25. Lol John hadi, I don’t want to get into it, lets keep it weather at least through the week, nice night down here, a little cool but nice, ps Patriots will make it farther than most think 🙂 have a great night everyone

  26. Some key things to consider for this upcoming winter. The ao or artic oscillation started this month positive but has since gone negative. If you’re rooting for a cold and snowy winter you want to see a deeply negative ao this time of year and we may be heading in that direction, this is the wild card for eastern us. How about El Niño winter. Neutral enso conditions may not have a big influence. How about a brutally cold winter. The plus qbo( quasi biennial oscillation) if your rooting for brutally cold air in the east you want that to be negative. Lastly, all of the unused energy sitting atop the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic this year . Being that there haven’t been any strong tropical cyclones to use it up may or may not lead to some very intense early snowstorms.

  27. Mayo is gone Charlie. What is far? Playoffs? Super Bowl?

    You can’t engage in a friendly and polite manner? I think the problem is you can’t be objective so it’s hard for you to debate.

  29. I call on experts to explain how Siberian cold can influence our weather. From a logical perspective that does not seem to make sense. It can and does influence weather as far away as Western Europe where below normal temperatures have been the norm in recent days. But does Siberian weather shape our weather?

    1. Just google and you’ll have your’e answer. I also urge you to do some research on Judah Cohen who study’s this. I had great conversations with him last winter. He actually was on here as an observer. I asked him to join but he is a longtime weather guy and likes to stick with that kind of stuff. I may check in with him and see what his early thoughts are.

    2. Siberia is huge. The extent of its snowcover and cold has a major impact on weather in the entire northern hemisphere. We often see cross-polar flow especially in winter. Siberian snowcover and temperature impacts the large scale pattern, which is directly related to our weather.

      1. Does anyone know what is going on in Siberia through mid October ? Is there above or below normal snowfall so far ?

Comments are closed.