Up & Down Temperature, Not Much Weather

353 Comments

5:07PM

It’s a dry pattern. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. We’re in a moderate drought in southeastern New England, but many won’t notice since we are rapidly moving away from the end of the growing season and still several months away from the next one. The drought is going to be a big issue in 2014 unless we have a wet Winter and/or Spring.

During the next 7 days, we’ll see temperature changes from the current chill to a mild midweek then back to a cooler weekend and early next week. The only “weather”, that is, precipitation, will be rain showers on Thursday with the passage of a cold front. Otherwise, quiet is the word.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows in the 30s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Highs in the 50s. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Areas of fog late. Lows in the 40s. Wind S under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Early fog burning off to variably cloudy in the morning then mostly cloudy with a period of showers from west to east midday & afternoon. Highs in the 60s. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 32. High 48.

SATURDAY: Sunny AM; partly sunny PM. Low 29. High 49.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy AM; partly cloudy PM. Low 38. High 50.

MONDAY – VETERANS DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 26. High 48.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 29. High 50.

353 thoughts on “Up & Down Temperature, Not Much Weather”

  3. Thanks tk, this time of year is my fav, cool nights, mild days, don’t need the ac, and don’t need the heat. 40.4 degrees

  4. I have no problem with no rain since I have lots of leaf raking ahead of me between now and the end of the month and maybe even into early December. The leaves have pretty much all turned now here in Boston, but are still on the trees.

    I remember when I was a kid while trick-or-treating on Halloween, there would be far more leaves on the ground than on the trees but nowadays it is the complete opposite. Our climate has radically changed indeed over the years, unfortunately.

    1. Philip you are correct. Even leaf pick up dates have shifted forward. I like it better when they are over and done in October or at least by now.

    2. It’s also important to keep in mind, the types of maples that had early leaf drop as well as just about all Elm trees (which were very dominant previously) are now gone. They died off from disease or were removed due to landscaping and development. Many of the prevalent trees now are late leaf-droppers, and also less colorful.

      This is more the reason for the lack-luster foliage colors and later leaf drop as opposed to a change in the climate over a 30-year period.

      Trees react to the amount of sunlight more than anything else when changing and losing foliage.

      1. I am certain that is true for a lot of areas. We have lived with our trees for 30 years and for the first time we are raking well into November and the town has had to adjust its pickup for the first time in those thirty years. They now start and end collecting 2 weeks later. For the most part I have the same trees I had 30 years ago as does our neighborhood. My mimosa should have lost its leaves weeks ago. Its a warm climate tree, and they are just turning yellow and have yet to fall at all.

        1. I guess it does vary area to area. My neighborhood is nearly leafless (except typical late trees) as of Halloween for the first time in quite a while, which may have a little bit to do with the below normal precip. since August.

          I’m going to be done picking up leaves the earliest since sometime in the 1980s.

          1. Another signal that something’s going on, is my grandfather used to tell me back in the 90’s that when he would play football, and on Friday nights in the 30’s-40’s in oct they would switch from cleats to sneakers bc you would get better traction on frozen ground, and on thanksgiving the entire team would have just sneakers, still being involved in football, I never had to change to sneakers ever in my high school days bc now the ground doesn’t freeze sometimes till late Jan.

            1. The ground was not frozen in October and November at any time in our history, other than the ice age.

              Another thing, cleats have changed in the last 80 years, as have many football fields. Artificial turf is becoming more and more prevalent. In fact in Woburn we now have a fake field with rubber pellets underneath it. It never gets wet, even in a downpour. The water just drains through the pellets and into a drainage system underneath. And of course, the rubber pellets being black keep this fake field from freezing as a dirt/grass field would.

              1. Just going by what gramps said, and I do believe him, also artificial turf has been prevelant everywhere in United States, as usual it’s been slow to penetrate New England, have a good night tk 🙂

                1. Oh I’m not saying he lied. I am just saying that there have been changes in fields and equipment over that time so I am not sure if those 2 things are lending a great deal to the argument that we have a drastically different climate in New England now versus earlier in the 20th century. Up for debate. I’m sure your grandfather was truthful and had many great stories to share. 🙂

              3. I’ve been to some huge high school programs that have had artificial grass for 25 yrs in Cali,Illinois etc etc, artificial turf is nothing new except for here,

  9. There’s a fun weather quiz on wcvb. The only one I got wrong was the drought one…..me, who has been saying we need rain for months. Go figure

  10. More Ho Hum weather………….Booooooooooooooooooooring. 😀

    Looking at the Euro, Canadian and GFS this morning, I’m thinking I’m in bizzarro world. 3 completely different looks to the weather over the next 10 days. Of course the Canadian has the most interesting scenarios, but we know that will go poof. Not even going to post a link until I see some consistency from run to run.

    Patience, they say is a virtue. Yeah, one I don’t have. 😀

    1. Agreed …… at least today’s 0Z EURO looks more in line with what we’ve seen over the last several weeks.

      1. Yes, It came into reality.

        At least into mid-month, looks like same ole same ole.

        Brief cool downs followed by warm ups.

        Not too much in the way of precip. 😀

  11. Good morning and I may be a grandma again by the end of today. Son’s wife is in labor 🙂 🙂 For once I am very happy that the weather is quiet!

  13. I’m not getting too excited but the latest charts of the both the AO and NAO by mid month look to dip slightly in the negative territory. Will see.
    In the mean time the boring weather pattern continues.

  16. So Siberian snow totals have come in for October and it’s the 4th snowiest on 45 years. Get the snow blows tuned up 🙂

    1. Hadi do we know the year on the other three to compare. I will try too contact Dr. Cohen this week as well who studies this.

  18. Thank you to everyone — very exciting day !!! And now snow is mentioned on the blog – WOW – great day it is!

  20. Gil Simmons meteorologist at WTNH the ABC affiliate in CT said stay tuned for later next week. When he says those words something is up. Lets see what materializes.
    Its fun that were beginning to track these POTENTIAL wintry threats.

  22. Thanks for posting the link Old Salty. When I see stormy that usually translates into what I call kitchen sink storms.
    I hope something materializes late next week since we do need a beneficial precipitation event with the rainfall deficts across the region.

    1. Too controversial to debate here, I think, Charlie. Jon Keller did a blog on it a day or two ago if you want to discuss.

    3. It will get out of the 30s next week.
      Monday will be above 50.
      Tuesday will be above 40.
      🙂

  35. Hmmm 18Z GFS. yes, it is a given..GFS & 18Z….BUT…

    Look at these 2M temperatures:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013110618&time=INSTANT&var=APTMPF&hour=177

    And prepcip with 850MB temps:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013110618&time=INSTANT&var=APTMPF&hour=177

    And how about perhaps the season’s first Snowfall map??????

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013110618&time=72&var=ASNOWI&hour=189

    This REALLY looks interesting.

    Fantasy? OR NO? Stay tuned for Fun and Games

  36. Harvey saying cold and dry for Wednesday and not going with storm. They also had a good piece on the current drought that were in.

  37. The GFS the outlier right now with that potential storm threat middle of next week. As I said earlier lets root for a good amount of precipitation with that middle of the week storm threat with the rainfall defecits across the region.

    1. Very Nice. Thank you JJ.

      We shall see.
      I’d feel better IF the Euro were on board. But we have 2 on board.

      I don’t like the way he explained the ensembles. I suppose he had to dumb it down. 😀

    2. As Ricardo Montalbon used to say on Saturday Night’s (I’m aging myself here) …….. “Welcome to Fantasy Island. “

  39. I believe many of the met’s are misinterpreting the Euro’s forecast for next Wednesday. Pay more attention to the upper level forecast there, not only the surface high.

    1. Canadian has been showing some storms before the other models lately. Maybe stronger, but that is its bias.

      1. Looks like that piece of energy comes all the way from Alaska and down into the Midwest….will be interesting to watch if it pans out.

  44. Its rare when a storm is shown a week or more in advance that it materializes. Sandy of course was an exception.
    With that said its something to keep an eye on but I am not jumping on board the storm train.

    2. JJ, what happened to, whenever there is low pressure on the east coast, it needs to be watched?? 😛

  45. A windy day to welcome my new grandson 🙂 We are not sure of anything other than he was born around midnight – not sure which side of midnight even. They ended up having to do a cesarean and all are well which is the only thing we really need to know right now 🙂

    1. Congrats Vicki! I’m glad everything worked out. I was a C-section baby too and i think i turned out ok 🙂

        1. Yes. Se was having a nuclear stress test today to prep and make sure her heart is good. I will go down on the 18th and hang out with my Dad at the hospital. So nice of you to remember.

            1. Hehehe. No name….literally, that’s what I’m calling him anyway :). They had 9 months to decide and yet…….still no name.

  46. Well now that we have something to watch, my work productivity will take a hit earlier than expected. I thought i was safe until at last Christmas.

  48. In addition to the Euro, the GFS has next Friday’s system as well:

    Here is the 0Z run from last night:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=00&stn=PNMPR&hh=204&map=na&stn2=TT850&run2=00&mod2=gfs&hh2=204&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    And just like that, here is the 06Z run. Earlier and much COLDER and off shore:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=06&stn=PNMPR&hh=168&map=na&stn2=TT850&run2=06&mod2=gfs&hh2=168&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    The mid-week storm has Vanished in each run. 😀 😀

    One thing for certain, the EURO run shows really COLD air mid-end of next week.

    And it sure looks like “something” is up towards the end of the week. Just a question of the ultimate track. NEEDS to be watched, even if it ends up not materializing.

    1. FIM model has system as well and pretty potent at that:

      http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=fim_jet:&runtime=2013110700&plot_type=3hap_sfc&fcst=198&time_inc=360&num_times=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=236&adtfn=0

      It has the first part of the storm as light snow but transitions to rain
      once the real meat of the storm arrives.

      This system is a real watcher, especially with COLD air in place ahead of it.
      If it tracks just right, could be interesting around here, especially inland.
      Any component of the wind off of the warm ocean spells rain near the coast.
      Of course any close track or inland track spells rain due to warmth above as well. 😀 😀

    2. Yeah OS, its that really cold air that’s concerning. That’s almost midwinter cold into a large portion of the country.

  51. AceMaster if you go back to my post I did say its something to keep an eye on. I am just not jumping on board the storm train.
    I have seen this many times where a storm is forecasted and it doesn’t materialize. Sandy and as Hadi pointed Nemo are exceptions. I am rooting for a beneficial precipitation event hopefully snow with the rainfall deficits across the region.

    1. I hear ya JJ, just razzin’ a bit 🙂 Its pretty shocking to the system to see something like this on the maps this early in the year so we shouldnt jump head first. I agree, we need any precip we can get around here. One thing is for sure, the ingredients will all be there, its just how they line up. One year ago today you got a good dumping of snow in your area, almost a foot right?

      1. Its okay AceMaster. I have been tired a lot lately and I might have forgotten what I usually say in these situations that whenever
        there is low pressure on the east coast it needs to be watched.
        Yes one year ago today was the first accumulating snow of the season. I ended up with 6 inches from that storm.
        The winner was Wallingford, CT north of New Haven with a foot of snow. Where the records are kept for the shoreline
        8.4 inches fell making it the biggest accumulating snowfall for a November storm.

    1. From wxrisk.com:

      Wxrisk.com
      ** ALERT *** The 0Z run of the NOV 7 euro Model has turned strongly to the idea of early season SECS event the Middle Atlantic and parts of New England

      This si MAJOR change in the previous runs of the European Model. This new run of the euro handles the energy over the western US / Canada much differently and this in tuns allows for the Model to say SNOW WVA VA MD.

      I am EXTREMELY skeptical abut this and YOU should be too. The energy coming in from the Pacific NEVER handled well by any Model… so this could change very quickly into a lot of NOTHING. EVEN if the Euro is right… the ground temps are VERRRY Warm

      recall the Veterans day NORTHERN VA DCA snowstorm of NOV 1987. This sort of things does happen ….

      https://fbcdn-sphotos-g-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-frc1/p200x200/578494_601249143255681_1654917169_n.jpg

  53. Finally something to watch!!! Again I love snowstorms but it concerns me that if we get a big storm this early in the season it usually turns into a less than average snowfall for the winter. Let’s hope for some kind of precip to get rid of the drought at least.

  54. I am not sure with the stats show when accumulating snowfall happens in November if the winter turns out with below normal snowfall. I do know that when there is accumulating snowfall in October every winter ended up below normal and in some cases was below normal snowfall as was the case in the winter of 11-12 when Boston only got 9.4 inches of snow. I believe 1.1 of that fell with the October Noreaster.

    1. I don’t go by those things anymore, to me now there myths. It’s determined by pattern only. Just my thought.

  58. I find it somewhat amusing that the news stations are talking about a potential chance for the first snow storm a week out.

    2. The funny thing is, there is a chance. But that’s just it, a chance and it may
      be a slim chance at best. Can you say ratings, ratings, ratings. Hype it and get
      more viewers. That’s the game!

      1. I agree oldsalty and I also believe that chance is incredibly slim at best at this time. I just get frustrated with that kind of hype.

        1. Write the station manager. Typical management. They back foolish ideas but its the faces on the air that take the heat. That bothers me far more than the hype

          1. Although ch5 does have the story on its web page Harvey came right out last night and said no its not happening. I believe he had 39 for the high on Wednesday but don’t hold me to that.

            1. In some ways, coming out and definitively saying it wont happen is almost as bad and irresponsible as hyping something that might happen.

  59. Absolutely! Tv its all about ratings.
    Gil Simmons our meteorologist here at WTNH in CT put in his headlines weather drama for later next week and on the 8 day forecast puts the words under the snow rain icon stay tuned watching closely. As I said yesterday when he uses those words something is up.

  60. They have to mention bc if they don’t and it happens then people will criticize them for not even mentioning it.

  64. I’ll be honest when I watched the weather, no mention of snow, of course till I come in here, but totally understand that this is a blog, and it doesn’t mean it’s gonna happen 🙂

  67. 12Z GFS is in. Surprise, surprise. OFF SHORE EVENT => NO STORM!!!

    he he he

    Let’s see what the 12Z Euro and Canadian have to say.

    AND it’s a week out. More changes are coming for sure. 😀

  68. Typical back and forth with the model. I always say when the weather alerts for snow go up that’s when I get excited. I am still going to watch this situation. Plenty of time for things to change.

  72. Charlie the blog is to discuss this type if stuff. Not one of us really believes anything is happening this early but we are to disect the info. I am not sure I can take another winter of you making fun of us in a backwards way with your comments. If don’t have anything to contribute why post? Have a great day 🙂

  73. The first of the 12Z Canadian is in. Just classic, don’t have precip or 850MB temps yet, but here goes:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1&hh=132

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=132&fixhh=1&hh=144

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNM&hh2=144&fixhh=1&hh=156

    Seems to want to really get going way off shore. Minor event here whether it is
    rain and/or snow. 😀

  74. One thing that looks certain a week now is there will be a low pressure on the coast. The question is where will it track and will there by an impacts here. At least there is something to keep an eye on.

  78. i think we are all getting a little to excited just to get disapointed with this system.
    First off, cold air will really need to come in
    2 need consistant model runs
    3 ground way to warm for any major accumulation
    4 yeah they are saying storm but 2 areas of energy need to merge.
    5 its something more than 7 days out.
    Im usually not the one saying snow is not gonna happen but this time my gut says no.

    1. Matt,
      I think you are bit too far the other way.

      Let me tell you, with cold air in place, the ground “could” be frozen
      when this event starts or at least cold enough as to not melt snow as it occurs.

      Snow WILL accumulate, if it should fall.

      Could this not materialize? Absolutely, but should it occur, do not
      discount accumulations. 😀

    1. That’s look like a warm weather solution. The model may not have a good handle if the pieces of energy are over the Pacific. Have to wait to they come ashore for better model sampling.

      1. Lots of warm air getting thrown in at the beginning, but then getting colder as the low strengthens

  80. I think in Marshfield, we may end up getting 1/4 to 1/3 inch of rain today. We had a bit of rain near/around dawn from some showers that came up from Buzzards Bay and its steadily raining now. I’d have to say this is one of the largest rainfalls we’ve seen over the past 2-3 months.

  83. I can’t lie….I LOVE the action on the blog. Even if it does go poof at least we get some enjoyment out of watching it. 🙂

          1. That is a decent storm at 995mb when it gets up here. Now if this could track a little more closer to the
            benchmark as I like to call the sweet spot.

  85. Old Salty hopefully its not wasted cold air. One thing I hate is when we have the cold air in place and don’t get any wintry weather to go along with it.

    1. Well, those Euro runs above have unreal COLD air in place, ONLY to have
      850MB warm up with the precip, so it would be RAIN and perhaps a change to snow at the end. BUT it is early. One good thing, it is showing on consecutive runs. We should expect some changes along the way. It could ultimately croak us, or go OTS or RAIN, but it sure looks like SOMETHING will happen.

      1. AccuWeather.com
        ALERT: Sustained winds with exceptionally dangerous Typhoon #Haiyan / #Yolanda increased to 305 kph (190 mph with gusts to 235 mph). The winds of Haiyan are the highest ever measured by satellite. As it makes landfall in the #Philippines, destruction is imminent.

  87. Eerie clouds over Attleboro.

    I will never complain about Boston hosp and parking again. RI hospitals are nuts

      1. Ive been to 2 of them, RI Hospital and Miriam. RI Hospital the parking was not a problem at all. Miriam on the other hand, disaster. Excellent hospital, terrible parking.

  88. Another storm (this current Hurricane) being described as one of the strongest ever to hit the Phillipines. Parts of China had its worst heat ever recorded this past summer. Last January in Australia, their weather service had to add new contour lines to their high temperature maps to be able to plot the record heat wave they had……………..

      2. global climate change i think is more like it old salty . well at least i like to say it that way.

        2. Man the water pumps! Sea levels are rising fast! 😉

          According to 1978 predictions, the eastern side of Woods Hill was supposed to be beach front property by the year 2000. Well? Where is my beach?!?! 😀

  93. This storm might break the highest wind gust ever recorded on earth. It’s a complete monster that will crush everything in its path.

  97. Model runs…

    Imperfect models handle energy differently. Most of the time run to run they come up with similar solutions. Sometimes they do not. Point is, there is a “storm threat” more model-derived than anything for next week, yet simple meteorology says that with some energy likely to be moving along the jet stream and some cold air around, we should keep an eye on it, not because a catastrophic mid November northeaster and/or snowstorm is about to unfold, but because there is the threat of unsettled weather in some form or another next week. There is so much time to iron out details on that system (or potential lack thereof) that from my standpoint there is really not much to say about it yet. Of course, you are all free to play with the model runs and speculate and fantasize. That is what the comments section of WHW is for. And of course if anybody desires my meteorological opinion, I am happy to give it upon request, if I haven’t already injected it into the conversation or addressed it specifically in the blog entry itself.

    Charlie… There were some mentions of snow by local met’s. I can assure you that news directors likely had at least something to do with it. 🙂 Nice to see the same “stupid” is still in effect in the local media. *sigh*

    Today… It rained more than I expected in much of eastern MA, but not even close to drought-breaking. Did anyone catch the clearing line above the western horizon late afternoon while the rain was still falling? Quite nice to see out there. I bet somebody in western MA saw a great tall rainbow. I’ll have to comb the net for photos later.

    Super Typhoon Haiyan… Perhaps at one point it was the strongest storm WE have observed. That does NOT mean there have not been stronger storms out there. Our live look at weather is but in its infancy compared to how long the same weather has been going on. To say confidently that this system is the strongest ever on Earth is foolish. We have no proof of that. To say it is may be the strongest we have observed is far more accurate. Climate change the reason? Up for debate. I say not necessarily the cause. I would be willing to bet stronger storms have occurred, even since our existence (pre-satellite). The pattern in the western Pacific is perfect this year for biggies, just as it was horrendous for development in the Atlantic. I saw this happen several times in the 1990s (and I am sure it has happened many many times previously and will repeat again in decades forthcoming). REGARDLESS, that typhoon is a beast and I can only hope that the areas about to be impacted are prepared and come through it as best as can be possible, given the circumstances.

    Web cam view from Boracay Island, Philippines:

    http://www.earthcam.com/world/philippines/boracay/bolabogbay/

  98. Thanks TK.
    I saw a rainbow outside my window here in CT. Some of it was covered by the cloud cover but it was nice to see.

  99. What a difference from a year ago at the same tonight when the snow was falling and accumulating. I am wondering if a repeat of what happened last year on this date will happen once again later next week?

    1. JJ I’ve been focused on other things so have not followed this storm. What day next week is the threat or potential threat?

        1. Thanks JJ :). We are feeling very blessed. I have a friend who had very major surgery at an out of area hospital and will travel back here next week. I will have to pay better attention.

      1. Nobody should be talking about accumulation at this point even if they do see it as a solid potential this many days out.

  105. Big rainbow around 1630 in Clinton today. Accompanied by a very pink sunset. Wished I had stopped to take a pix…

    1. Biggest hurricane in history is what I’ve heard on CNN and Fox News, there’s a 1st for everything

    2. Seriously, they have been advertising GUSTS to 235, with sustained at 195.

      I can’t even imagine what that would do.

      1. One reporter said that Sandy was 80 when it came ashore and look at the damage it did. It really is unimaginable.

  113. looks like out to sea. only the euro has it and it seems like its going further and furtheast south and east.

    1. Looks like it Matt, although one can never totally discount the Euro, even IF
      it is an Outlier. We’ll see if the 12Z run trends more OTS as well. If so, then
      we can probably stick a fork in it and say sayonara!

      We probably won’t see another chance until December sometime.

      We shall see. 😀

  114. Chris Lambert did the best job I’ve heard of very simply reporting next week’s weather. He explained the cold air driving down from Canada on Tues and sticking around with the next potential for a storm on Thursday. He then said, for now, we will just watch.

    Simply put, explains something may be there, all that’s needed right now IMHO.

    And I was thinking that for average folks, when you think of winter you start using the S word. Here, on Woods Hill, we use the P word 😉

    1. Which P word is that Vicki?

      Potential
      Possible
      Plausible
      Parenthetic
      Paranoia
      Pleeeeeeeeeeeeeeease

      😀

      1. Potential with a touch of possible tossed in of course !!! Perhaps a bit of all of the above tossed in 😉

        1. He He He

          I think this “chance” or “potential” has gone “poof”.
          Will wait until the 12Z Euro run for last rites and funeral services. 😀

  115. Hard to ignore the euro. We’ll see in the next few days! That last run, NYC and northern NY get pummeled with snow. We get maybe 6″ in most of this area.

    2. That’s why I said let’s see what the 12Z run shows. IF it is trending OTS,
      see YA. The other thing about the Euro is HOW the system instantly WARMS U P???? I don’t get that. Warmer Ocean temps being sucked up into the system?
      I mean 850MB temps are like -10 to -15C and then poof, they instantly go up to
      just barely below freezing.

  116. Anyone else having issues with the blog site crashing and freezing and not loading comments sometimes?

    1. Ace,
      The only thing I have noticed was a delay in the comments getting
      posted. They go OK, but it takes much longer than it should.

    2. I’m having trouble with loading. I had to refresh several times last night. More so with my iPad than computer. I’ve been having the problem for a while. Sometimes I have to refresh to see anything. Other times I get the blog but no info in the frame on the right. No problem with comments posting – except it tells me I’m posting too fast — ooops.

  117. Can’t discount the euro but it’s just too early for that type of outcome. Even though it has happened before.

    1. Right. We have seen the Euro nail a system 7-10 days out before, even when
      it was a total OUTLIER. Doesn’t mean it happens this time.

      We need to take a deep breath, relax, and wait to see how it develops.

      I REALLY enjoy looking at the model runs, even if NOTHING ends up
      happening. I find it absolutely fascinating and intellectually rewarding.

  118. Just saw a video from TWC on the possible snow next week. They guy was saying he thinks it will be offshore. His exact words regarding the model divergence, “we know none of the models are right, but we look for the model that is the least wrong.” That tells u how difficult it is to interpret these things and make an accurate forecast.

    1. Too bad they can’t rely on years of experience to blend in with the model runs,
      Um, Ah, Like Barry Burbank can!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      I despise MODEL HUGGING Mets. If they blend it with their experience, fine. BUT so many of them look at a model and VIOLA, there’s the forecast verbatem from the model. Bad, bad and more bad.

      Our own TK does NOT, NOT , NOT do that and that’s why we really appreciate him and his efforts. 😀

  119. On a side note, the scroll button on my mouse got a nice break over the summer, its getting its exercise now scrolling down through all the comments on this post so far 🙂

  121. Euro Operation 0Z Operational run vs Ensemble Mean at 168 hours:

    Operational:

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2013110800&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr

    Ensembles Mean:

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-ensmeantc2.cgi?time=2013110800&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=168hr

    Since the ensembles mean is significantly more off shore, we can determine that
    MORE ensemble members favored a more OTS solution than did those that did not.

    Conclusion: This leads one to believe that the Ultimate solution most likely would
    be an OTS scenario. It’s still early enough, however, this SURE seems to be the
    trend.

    INTERESTING……

  122. Just a reminder,

    The current ocean temperature as per our 2 nearby off shore buoys is
    52.7 and 52.9 respectively. Just a bit too warm. 😀 😀

    The cold from now till mid-week next week should drop it another degree or so.

    This is still MILDER (on 11/8) than it was for the October Nor’easter in 2011 when it
    was 52 if I recall correctly. 😀

  123. My bloomerang lilac has three lovely new blooms. It’s only two years old so no idea if this is normal but seems late.

  124. It appears that snow potential is no potential, 1st potential of year on the blog, 0-1, I’m not being a wise guy but I’m gonna keep track of all these potentials and see what the percentage is, beautiful day!! 🙂

    1. Charlie,

      We ALL know that the percentage will be low. I’m guessing somewhere
      around 10-30 percent. I, for one, would be interested in the final tally just
      out of curiosity. What criteria would you use? A potential from 7 days in?
      OR 10 days in? It could get confusing.

      Best of luck with it.

      btw, even though the percentage WILL be LOW, we will all still discuss those
      potentials here. That’s why we are here. We are actually searching for and seeking out any “possible” potential. 😀 😀
      That’s why we’ll post a map that shows something 10 days out. We KNOW it’s
      not likely to happen, but we like to follow the model runs to see what happens.

  127. Why are you keeping track Charlie? What purpose. 0-1? This is 7 days and not one person said it’s gonna happen. Jeez.

  128. Curious to see if the 12z euro continues to show it coming up the coast or if it will start to trend offshore.

    1. I’m Guessing, based on 0Z ensembles, that it is MORE off shore with the 12Z
      run. We Shall see. 😀 😀

  130. As expected OS. This never had a chance, just look at the overall pattern. Just did not seem conducive to a major east coast storm.

    Not sure how Charlie will mark this one down in that not one person at WHW said it would be a snow storm.

  131. Sun is out in Sudbury with a pretty sky filled with various clouds –

    and it’s Sleeting – or Hailing?

  132. Sun is out NW of Worcester, and for about 5 minutes it was a shower of graupel.

    Little balls of snow, not really ice pellets…

  133. Just came back to the office. Was out in JP and ran into a brief but rather
    heavy “graupel” shower. But honestly, it appeared a little more icy than
    normal graupel, but yet whiter and more snowy looking that Hail. Temp was 48!
    WEIRD!!! Looks like another is about to descend upon us here.

    1. This morning while working in Brookline at the daycare playground, there was a lot of ice chips mixed in with the rubber mulch. At first I thought it was glass.

    1. Where oh where are you seeing that? very Curious.

      I can see out to 90 hours at Wundermap. That is the only place
      I can see it.

      Thanks

      1. I did find it at Plymouth State.

        Ok I now see what you mean. It now forms OFF shore of
        NC and goes OTS from there.

        PRETTY MUCH what each and everyone of us expected, no?

        😀 😀 😀

      2. On instant weather maps i cant see exactly where it goes from hours 144-168, but at 144 its east of the carolinas, then at 168 its well east of NE

  135. Hello,

    So its pretty much off now. We still have 5-6 days before this storm even forms off the east coast and as far as I know this system is still hanging out in the Pacific. We still have plenty of time and lets see what the models are saying come Sunday. In the meantime lets continue to speculate.

    1. here is the 12Z Euro from Wundermap at 168 hours. Quite a Beast out
      in the Ocean. BUT notice that it wouldn’t take too much of a change to
      get it within range.

      http://i.imgur.com/2rVDR23.jpg

      You can click in the window maximize box on the top right to expand this
      image. It is a screen shot from my work computer.

      1. If needed. When I viewed it here, already maximized.
        A suitable way of uploading Wundermap images of the Euro.
        I use a site called Imgur.com to do so.

  136. The downpour/squall/whatever we had in Framingham center was more snow than ice/rain and the sun was out a good portion of the time. It was awesome – and of course my daughter’s filled the camera space on my phone with pictures of the two babies so I couldn’t capture a pic!

    1. Would management do so without the approval of the Chief Met (Harvey?)
      I don’t think Harvey would do this on his own. IF Harvey did so, extreme
      pressure from Management.

      My wife mentioned this to me today. I think it was earlier PRIOR to the
      12Z run.

      How irresponsible of WCVB.

      I can’t stand it when MONEY GRUBBING Management officials get in the
      way of sensible Meteorology. But I rant. Sorry.

      1. OS – I know for a fact that management will tell a met he/she must have the forecast out before any other station…..no matter what. It’s what I mean when I say management literally puts the mets rep on the line since it’s his/her face in front of the camera. Also, why I get touchy when some mets are criticized. We here should know enough to understand ALL of these mets went into the business because of their love for weather….as a result we should also know they do not do some of the stuff that seems irresponsible without considerable push from what you appropriately have termed money grubbing management.

        The saddest part – and I know this for a fact – is that when they are forced to do something they know is wrong and it blows up in their face, they take it very personally. One hell of a business for someone who loves what he/she does.

        Seems ranting is in the cards for the day eh?

        1. Very well said Vicki. It’s a Crying shame, isn’t it?

          Oh well, all we can do is our best to put it all in perspective here.

          As Hadi indicated, no one here ever said it was going to snow. Possibilities and potential were pointed out, but
          no one here would go out on a limb and say it would snow.

          Not that some of us don’t do just that once in a while if we feel strongly about it. That was never in the cards with this situation.

          It sure looked “promising” for a time, but all good things must come to an end. 😀 😀

  138. It still needs to be watched even though certain things do not favor the development of a coastal low the AO and NAO in the positive territory. Plenty of time for things to change.

  141. From the NWS just a bit ago:

    THERE HAS BEEN PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SO WHILE RIGHT NOW THE GFS SOLUTION HAS MORE SUPPORT…THAT DOESNT MEAN THAT WONT CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 4 TO 5 DAYS.

    1. it be a november blizzard for the interior. would love it , if it did so i did not have to do this video recording for chemistry.

      1. Well we can wish and dream, but the reality is, it’s OTS.

        But this is New England and strange things have happened
        before. 😀 😀 😀

  143. Wow that wind is strong and its cold. Its a blustery day in the 100 acre woods :). I even thought of wearing a jacket to take the dog out.

  145. 18Z GFS has 500 MB trough a fair bit deeper. Still don’t think it will be enough, but
    IS it a sign of a trend back the other way???????

  146. I’d like to report that we have pretty much lost all of the leaves and cleanup will commence tomorrow am at 9:00 for all who would love to join in the fun 😆 We are earlier this year than the last several.

      1. We noticed a lot more leaves on the trees when we were down that way yesterday. Odd because last year it was exact opposite. I wonder if its because you had more rain than we did

  148. I know it’s very early, but next weekend could be very nice with highs in the mid 50’s, I’m hoping so cause high school football playoffs 🙂

  149. Tom you were wondering last week on Christmas music. 105.1 has it on as I just heard it while surfing. Again some of the most wonderfull music available to listen to.

      1. Nope. I’m all set with Xmas music now. I’ll start listening around turkey day. On my phone I have my I touch music stored on it but do not use.

        1. No. Pandora is all music. You choose the artist you like which sets the radio station that gives you music similar to that artist. Its free with minimal ads or no ads 36/yr. your new truck has to have a connection to play it through ur radio. I can email you if you want more info.

              1. Yes, you can get regular radio stations too for all around the country. Not every station, but some good ones.

    1. Cool!

      OS have you noticed that more often than not the Euro has been moving to a GFS solution for at least a couple months. Old reliable may be becoming a follower :).

  151. What many don’t know is that some of the Philippine cities hit directly by the typhoon had suffered through a pretty big quake 2 weeks ago. I saw some video of the winds. not even explainable.

    1. I was looking at whatever coverage I could find for the typhoon. It is incomprehensible and I knew nothing about an earthquake preceding it.

      1. Me either. How sad. My Uncle’s Wife is from there and was back visiting with a group from her church. I have not heard from him on how she was doing. Not sure which part of the country she is staying in.

  154. The typhoon has already killed over 100 people. North I hope your not upset that I posted that stat with your uncles wife missing as I am not trying to be disrespectfull.

    2. Not at all John. I am sure she is probably fine. My Uncle lives in Toronto and sometimes it is hard for me to get a hold of him. I will call him again tomorrow if I don’t here back from him.

  155. Looks like a glancing blow of the really cold stuff from Tues night to Thurs morning with Wednesday struggling to make 40. Could turn milder by next weekend relatively speaking. 00GFS is still out to sea.

  156. John… What city is 105.1 with the Christmas music coming out of? Not going there now. Just for future reference. Like you, as much as I love the season, I’ll hold off on the steady stream of music until after Thanksgiving dinner is over. 😉

    Blog is updated!

    1. I wonder if John meant 101.5 FM. I believe its out of Rhode Island and it comes in pretty well down here.

    2. I was thinking he meant 105.1 also. I agree with after thanksgiving. I do have a tim Janis holiday cd and pandora channel that I mix in with my music now. Its pure instrumental and on the new age side. I’m not even sure how to describe it. Maybe subtle Christmas music so its not like a full dose before thanksgiving.

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