The Week Ahead

80 Comments

5:28PM

Another week of changing temperatures but still not a lot of precipitation to show for it. So the overall dry pattern continues with a slowly building drought. The only weather system of note this week will be an arctic cold front that crosses the region from northwest to southeast Monday night and early Tuesday, bringing with it some rain and snow showers. An upper trough may hold lots of clouds in for Tuesday before high pressure takes over midweek (with a fresh batch of cold air over the region) and continues into late week (with moderating temperatures).

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Lots of clouds evening. Decreasing clouds overnight. Lows 30-35 except 35-40 Cape Cod & Islands. Wind W 10-20 MPH gusting up to 30 MPH.

MONDAY – VETERANS DAY: Lots of sun morning. Increasing clouds afternoon. Highs 45-50. Wind W 5-15 MPH gusting up to 25 MPH.

MONDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Rain showers arriving from northwest to southeast then turning to snow showers except rain/mix showers southeastern MA and South Coast of MA & RI. Minor snow accumulation possible before dawn mainly in the northwestern suburbs of Boston through southern NH. Lows 30-35. Wind W shifting to NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy through midday then slow clearing northwest to southeast. Highs 35-40. Wind NW 15-25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Low 19. High 39.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy AM. Mostly sunny PM. Low 27. High 49.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 30. High 51.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 46.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 27. High 50.

80 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

    1. put up lights over thanksgiving break and this year i got a bunch of new toys to play with , lets see how the neibors like the music im gonna play 😉

      1. We usually do Thanksgiving too but with kids scattered we will have two thanksgivings so it’ll be nice to have them at least up. Maybe you can post pics of your new decorations. I’d love to see them 🙂

        1. My cords and lights are going out next weekend. We turn everything on starting on December 1 because I have 17+ rooms in a 2-family house to take care of decorating. 🙂

          1. We always try to set them out ahead but rarely manage to. This year I’m on a mission. I am also doing inside before thanksgiving which is a week closer to Christmas than last year. I do it all and have fewer rooms than you (17 is mind boggling) but 10 keeps me busy 🙂

  2. Thanks TK as always. I need bone dry weather for the rest of the month. I have lots of leaf cleanup and hopefully some badly needed work on my house. Yes, I know there is a deficit but that is what winter storms (snow) and springs rains are for.

    It appears this is the new WBZ/AccuWeather on-air mets schedule:

    Eric Fisher = weeknights at 6 & 11 pm
    Todd Gutner = weekday mornings 4:30 – 7:00 am
    Danielle Niles* = weekends
    Barry Burbank = weekends 🙂

    TK – As far as you know, is this correct?

    1. Seems it!

      And we are in a dry pattern – generally good for leaf cleanup, except for some of those windy days. 🙂

    2. Quite a bit of Mild weather ahead. I’m guessing November comes in above average. We shall see. 😀

  11. From NWS this morning:

    …IS THAT DESPITE THE LATE DAY/PRE FRONTAL WARMING RETURN FLOW…EVEN IF LIGHT RAIN…AS OPPOSED TO LIGHT SNOW IS FALLING INITIALLY TONIGHT…THERE COULD BE ENOUGH DYNAMIC
    COOLING/INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT A RAPID CHANGE-OVER TO HEAVY SNOW. THEREFORE…WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF BRIEFLY LIVED HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS…POSSIBLY AS FAR S AS CENTRAL CT/RI AND INTERIOR COASTAL PLAIN OF MA

  12. This looks to be the only weather action were going to have this week. After this brief cool shot we transition back to milder temps late week and the weekend.

  13. If a town does receive a snow squall it is possible to get a quick light accumulation. To me snow squalls are like thunderstorms in the summer not every town sees one but if you do you will know it.
    NWS out of Taunton already putting up a hazardous weather outlook for parts of the region for the possiblity of these snow squalls and the impact they COULD have on the morning commute tomorrow.

    1. You mean I’m not alone??????????????? 😀 😀 😀

      JJ, thanks.

      Take a look at all of this Morning’s 12Z NAM run. This precip is prolonged
      and MORE than just a squall. Of course will want to check out the Euro, Canadian and GFS to see if they show as robust event as does the NAM. The NAM means business. 😀 😀

  15. I’m not sure the average person knows how dangerous a snow squall can be. We were working with a bank client in Burlington in 2003? 2004?. I remember the sky to my east was as black as I’ve ever seen it (6:30 am-ish) so decided to leave a bit early. That was my first mistake. I think it took about the normal 25 minutes or so to get to the Route 2 exit on 128. It then took four hours from Route 2 exit to the Burlington Mall exit. I suspect that isn’t much more than 4 miles.

    There was very little accumulation but it hit fast and it hit amazingly hard.

    2. Vicki,

      You are so right. Snow squalls typically don’t last long. I was just pointing out that we are going to have a period of snow lasting longer than a typical snow squall. Could we have a longer duration snow squall? I presume so. What would we call that? Hmmm a Snowrecho ????

      We shall see how it all pans out.

      1. 12 Canadian is in (the 48 hour version)
        Hard to tell, but best I can figure it wants to spit out “about”
        5MM qpf, which is about .2 inch.

        Depending on temperature and dew point and thus the snow
        ratio, that could translate into 1-3 inches.

        We’re getting some model consistency here.

        Not that this would be anything big, but we could have
        the ground white around here by end of commute tomorrow
        AM. 😀 😀

      2. Sorry – wasn’t clear (again) – I was just making an observation and didn’t mean to make it seem as if it were related to your comment. Actually, it was your thought of a longer duration snow squall that prompted my comment so maybe it was somewhat related. The thought of that is really worrisome.

  16. These models to me underestimate the snowfall potential when dealing with a snow squall or norlun trough situation.
    This has all the making of a now casting situation.

    1. JJ you are right on. The fact that they ALL are picking up on this,
      probably means something will/should happen. We never know
      for sure until the event is upon us. 😀 😀

  17. I remember a norlun trough situation that happened where I am back in January 2011. The models underestimated the amount of snow and my area fell under that trough and got 12-18 inches of snow in a six hour span.
    I am not saying that is going to happen here but that 1-3 inches Old Salty mentioned in an earlier post COULD happen in some areas.

  18. Yes all news this morning is first snow for boston. Tk may need to update his above forecast for tonight seeing snow n/w of boston as looking like everybody right even the coast will see some form of snow and or showers.

  19. Reviewing some different forecasts I think tonight’s action will be hit or miss but the hits could possibly produce mostly suger coatings with some rare exception of up to an inch if the squall lasts a couple or so hours. Timing looks to be around 4 to 5am. All mentions seem to be south of the pike.

  20. From NWS in Upton, NY
    UPDATE…ANALYSIS OF 3Z SREF PLUMES AND 6Z GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST
    CAT POPS FOR SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COULD SEE A
    CHANGEOVER TO SNOW ALL LOCATIONS FOR A TIME LATE TONIGHT. WILL
    EVALUATE 12Z GUIDANCE BEFORE PERFORMING ANY UPDATES TO FORECAST
    THOUGH…BUT INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE FOR RAIN TO SNOW WITH POSSIBLE
    MINOR ACCUMS ALONG WITH BLUSTERING CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING
    COMMUTE.

    1. 12Z GFS is in. Just about the same as the other models, perhaps a bit
      less in the qpf department. .1 to .2 inches.

      Just waiting on the EURO.

  22. In spite of the massive cold air that is coming on down for tomorrow and Wednesday, it only moderates once again and quite mild for the upcoming weekend so it seems that the persistent dry/roller coaster temps pattern is continuing for the forseeable future.

    TK – Do you see a new pattern of any persistent cold/storminess after Thanksgiving into early December?

    1. I’ve had a tough time going against the Euro Monthlies which showed warmth, but it seems to be getting easier to get cold air out of Canada. I think this may be related to Siberia among other things.

      We will have a mild interlude upcoming, but starting to see more signs of cold shots. JMA referred to a shot of the coldest air of the season so far coming after the next warm-up, and I agree. Look for it with an approximate arrival date of November 21.

      1. Tk I think we need to take a good look at the Syberia snow cover. I’m thinking we may be heading for an extreme winter with both snow and cold and not cold and dry. Syberia although not the only thing to look at but it’s a proven fact when there snow is above that we could have one hell of a snowy winter here in the northeast.

  24. From what I saw from the futurecast radars from the TV mets this morning, areas south of Boston might end up with the “most” snow. I find that very interesting even in mid-winter let alone mid-November with a cold frontal passage.

    We will see if Boston gets its first “accumulation” of the season come tomorrow morning. 😉

  27. The “event” in the morning is really not going to be that big a deal. The precip may be all but over from Boston N & W when it’s cold enough. And if anything accumulates in the Boston area into southeastern MA it will vanish pretty quickly even without sun, which may not shine until midday or more likely afternoon, especially further E & S.

    The wind and chilly air will be more impacting than any snow that falls.

  28. Special Weather Statement posted by NWS out of Taunton

    …SNOW SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE…

    A STRONG ARCTIC FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
    ENGLAND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. BEHIND THIS FRONT EXPECT RAIN
    SHOWERS TO QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS DUE TO FALLING
    TEMPERATURES. THIS TRANSITION WILL OCCUR DURING THE MORNING
    COMMUTE…BETWEEN 5AM TO 9AM. THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SQUALLS IS
    ALSO A POSSIBILITY WHICH MAY RESULT AN INCH OF SNOW IN A SHORT
    TIME. THIS MAY CREATE SOME SLIPPERY TRAVEL ALONG WITH POOR
    VISIBILITY DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.

  30. I am excited. I saw some snow flakes last Friday and I hope that is a sign of many more snow flakes for the upcoming winter and some good Noreaster’s.

  32. You’d think some stations’ FB pages are advertising a “snowstorm”. This is not going to be one of those.

      1. For the city, a coating. Pretty much under 1 inch anywhere it snows hard enough to stick. Odds favor sticking taking place from Metro Boston southward, excluding Cape Cod. Should be over by 8AM Metro Boston, later morning to the south. This is quick, and a memory by later in the day.

  36. Looking at the TV met forecasts, I am seeing end of week temps at 7-8 degrees aboveTK’s forecast. Sorry TK, but I am routing for the TV mets on this one. 🙂

    1. Yes longshot. This is a very short lived cold front with the worst of it tonight and tomorrow. Should be in high 50s by the weekend. When are the mets going to stop yapping about this so called storm, enough is enough.

  39. Rain here. We had a blast of wind and briefly heavy snow about 1:30. It had the sound of a winter storm….very nice

  42. Still rain here …… Mt. Washington down to 1F and falling, by far the coldest so far I’ve seen this autumn.

  44. Snow in Woburn. Big flakes, light intensity. No accumulation.

    Yes Longshot I bumped the temps up. When I made that forecast I wasn’t sure how much SW-W wind we’d get into at the time.

    Blog is updated! 🙂

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