Weekend Update

110 Comments

9:49AM

A mild weekend, clouds departing by midday Saturday as a disturbance exits the region, but clouds return during Sunday as a cold front approaches from the west. Tropical moisture flowing northward ahead of this front may bring showers as early as Sunday afternoon and night, with the main showers and possible thunderstorms with the cold front coming through from west to east during the first half of the day Monday. This timing is a little faster than indicated on the last update. A transition back to colder weather takes place the second half of Monday with a dry and chilly episode of weather for Tuesday through the middle of next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, RI, and eastern MA)…

TODAY: Decreasing clouds through midday. Mostly sunny afternoon. Highs 50-55. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 30-40, coldest inland valleys. Wind SW under 10 MPH.

SUNDAY: Increasing clouds. Slight chance of rain showers afternoon. Highs 55-60. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with showers and possible thunderstorms AM / breaking clouds PM. Low 50. High 65.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 28. High 45.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 21. High 40.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 23. High 44.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 28. High 49.

110 thoughts on “Weekend Update”

  4. The 12z GFS is barely brining the -10c 850 temps into northern New Engalnd. A couple of days ago it was down to Boston. May reach not the 40’s Wednesday, as the models have been backing off the cold a little each day.

      1. The funny thing is that anyone who has an iPad or maybe any tablet now gets what you are saying even without translation. We have all learned a new language…..

  7. The weather action tomorrow looks to be in parts of the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes tomorrow with the potential for severe storms including tornadoes. Thankfully that front will not pack the same punch here but as I said in the previous blog I would not rule out some strong wind gusts in heavier showers and non severe storms.

  8. Yup it got a little warmer in some areas than my forecast range. So much for “day 1 accuracy” .. 😉

    And I no longer wonder why my forecasting game scores were higher on day 3 than they were on day 1 in college.

  9. Beautiful day today. Son had a karate tournament today he took first place in his first match and second place in the other match.

      1. Thanks tk. Do you think the cold will come true for next week. Also I have sent an email to Mr Cohen on his thoughts for this upcoming winter. I will let you know his response if I get one.

        1. Yes it will get cold, i.e., below normal temperatures Tuesday-Wednesday, maybe briefly near normal Thursday or Friday before below again into next weekend. It’s a chilly/dry pattern overall, with brief interruptions as it reorganizes (such as it is doing Sunday-Monday).

    1. There definitely will be stormiest around in the the eastern part of the country next weekend/early next week. Hopefully we get some rain. OS, looks
      At the size of that high 1052!

        1. Awesome! You saw what I did today (FB picture). 😀

          I’m doing the outside cords & lights next Saturday and the rest of the decorations out there next Sunday (first time ever before Thanksgiving but I have to focus on inside starting on November 25 since Thanksgiving is the latest date possible). We’ll still have a few rooms in the house that are completely Late Autumn through Thanksgiving Day. 😀

          1. I saw and liked Very nice. Big yard. I put up my dickens village today. In addition to the other stuff I have 2 villages. Dickens is more winter so I can get away with it a bit early. The other is North Pole so have to wait 🙂

  11. Out running errands this PM.

    Temps were ranging 61-63 until falling off to 58 later in the PM.
    No coat or jacket required this afternoon.

    1. Maxed out at the following:

      Logan: 59
      Beverly: 60
      Fitchburg: 62
      Blue Hill: 57
      Norwood: 61
      Taunton: 62
      Westfield: 61
      Providence: 60

        1. Well remember it started three weeks ago. Well we put frontline plus on the next night so that will be three weeks ago this Tuesday. Still seeing flees on them but have not seen anywhere else in house like jumping etc. so tomorrow I am bringing to get them a flee bath as the lady told me its effective than in two days put advantage on them. I was told that this is better than frontline. I don’t have anything to loose. I hope I don’t get full blown infestion. But wouldn’t I have had one by now. I’ve been told since not seeing them except on the dogs and nobody has got bit to not bomb yet. It really is stressing me out as we have never had this problem.

          1. I’m surprised you are still seeing on dogs. Wear white socks. Do you have rugs. I told mac tonight that he has to do flea check. I absolutely detest the things and have been scratching since your post. I’m thinking you talked to vet?

            2. Vicki I did talk to vet and they wanted $170 just to walk through the door last weekend, sorry but not paying that. I need to find a new vet. The information I got today is the frontline is not as effective as once was and the advantage was stronger. Hard for me to argue that since frontline seemed to fail for us but that’s what they have always used. I did not use over summer because of the cost, that was the first and last mistake that will be made there.

  13. I get all stressed when we have to check the dogs multiple times a day. They don’t like it and neither do I . I am scared thinking of an all out infestion.

  15. Answer to today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    This past Tuesday it snowed. Which airport broke its record that day for snowfall?
    A. Logan
    B. Manchester
    C. Worcester
    D. JFK

    The correct answer is D.

            1. Yes. I never have basketball on in my house as I just can’t get into it. Same with college football, I’m sure that’s on. I watch pro football, hockey and baseball. If they had girl mud wrestling I would watch that lol.

              1. I love football both college and the professional. I saw one of the best college football
                games I have seen in quite some time between Georgia and Auburn. Basketball and hockey
                I watch some games during football season but its not until after football season is over
                I really get into basketball and hockey.

  16. went to the ski show today, got some ski tickets and ski discounts, and talked to Barry Burbank . we talked about the up coming winter. He predicts average winter.

        1. Matt, i was in the ticket booths in the lobby selling tickets to the show. It was so busy there today i didnt get a chance to walk around and talk to barry

          1. I did get to sell tickets to Tom E. Curren of comcast sports net and patriots pro football weekly. Wicked nice guy.

    1. So jealous! Its gonna be beautiful. Only thing i hate about playing golf this late is its so easy to lose your ball among all the leaves

  18. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz. I don’t know how they came up with this one.

    How many meteors were seen per minute during the meteor shower on the morning of November 17, 1966?

    A. Zero
    B. Several Dozen
    C. Hundreds
    D. Thousands

    Answer later today.

  19. I am going with B.
    This has the makings of being a very active severe weather day for parts of the midwest, Ohio Valley, and lower great lakes.
    In fact parts of the midwest are under a high risk for severe weather. I would expect there to be some severe thunderstorm or tornado watches for that part of the country
    Thankfully when this front comes here it will not produce severe weather which is good news. The bad news not a lot of rain coming to put a dent in the drought.

    1. Yes it does. We have friends and family in Illinois and Indiana. Hoping they do not see any tornadoes but with a Torcon index of 9 that is a 90 percent chance…pretty high rating from Dr. Forbes for any time of the year.

  20. D.

    The EURO and GFS seem in agreement of a quick, but intense cold shot 9-10 days from now.

    I wonder what the trend will be over the next several days towards this cold shot … to maintain it or back away from it…….

    2. I remember a severe threat with a tornado watch….could have been warning…all the way from MA to ME. Assuming it didnt originate here. Back around this time or perhaps a bit later in 2009. It was unusually warm

  24. From SPC regarding Southern New England tomorrow AM:

    …SRN NEW ENGLAND…

    IT STILL APPEARS LIKELY THAT A FORCED LOW TOPPED LINE OF CONVECTION WITH LITTLE TO NO LIGHTNING WILL BE IN PROGRESS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND MONDAY MORNING. THIS CONVECTION WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN MEAGER CAPE BUT A VERY STRONG KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT INCLUDING A 60+ KT SLY LLJ. A SMALL WINDOW WILL EXIST DURING THE MORNING FOR
    AT LEAST A LOWER END THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AS THIS ACTIVITY
    CONTINUES EWD AND OFFSHORE…ESPECIALLY OVER SRN NEW ENGLAND WHERE INSTABILITY MAY BE SLIGHTLY GREATER.

    1. Checking the Wundermap, situation #1 calls for about 2-4 inches of
      snow in our area. Yes I am fully aware this is 7 days out. But it is the Euro and this is a couple of days running that it has been hinting at something in that
      time frame. 😀

  26. Barry mentioned the ski show on air last night and the nice people he talked to. I think one of the people he was referring to was you Matt. 🙂

    BTW I will be putting The Week Ahead post up early today. I’m going to see Trans-Siberian Orchestra tonight so I’ll be gone most of the evening. 🙂

    I also have to delay my winter forecast for a couple days. It’s nearly done but I want it to be worded very simply. Target post for it is November 19. I’d do it tomorrow, but I have to drive to Logan Airport to pick up my friend and her mother about 3PM then drive her mother back home in southern NH before coming home and fitting in painting 2 window frames in the basement sometime in the evening while I watch/listen to the Bruins and Pats. 😉

    1. Dr. Greg Forbes
      TORNADO OUTBREAK TODAY. I am raising TORCON to 9 for central and east two-thirds of IL, and for IN. TORCON 7 for west OH. TORCON 6 for south MI. TORCON 5 for southeast WI. TORCON 6 for west and north KY. TORCON 4 for east OH. Severe storms and a chance of a tornado in central MI, west IL, east MO, east AR, rest of KY, TN, north AL, north and central MS, northeast LA. TORCON 3 to 4 in these areas. Damaging winds continue across NY, WV, PA, MD overnight.

      Torcon=9
      Anyone ever seen that before?

  29. Old Salty with the tornado outbreak in Alabama in April 2011 the tor con was a ten.
    The ingredients are there for what COULD be a bad outbreak of severe weather for parts of the midwest, ohio valley, and lower great lakes.
    Now looking at the latest update from the SPC a good chunk of SNE is in a slight risk zone for severe weather. I think the activity weakens before it gets here but I would not be surprised if there are isolated non severe storms.

  33. Tornado threat is highest in Illinois and early-on. As this thing evolves, it probably turns into a combing squall line with widespread straight-line wind damage.

    We get windy here tomorrow morning but more from gradient than convective activity.

  36. Were going to see a lot of severe weather reports today in parts of the midwest, Ohio Valley and lower great lakes.

    1. Indeed they are. I keep seeing tornado vortex signature popping up all over
      Illionois. Not a good situation out there.

  39. Were going to keep seeing more tornado vortex signatures as the afternoon progresses. Plenty of shear in place for these storms to rotate unfortunately.

  40. My son lives in Chicago! Thank Goodness he no longer lives on the 30th floor of a high-rise and his new home has a basement!!!

      1. Absolutely! He’s works in the news, so he receives regular updates, including reports of damage. I just hope he doesn’t have to be out reporting until the severe threat has passed!

  41. Henry Margusity’s twitter post –
    Shear is increasing across eastern IL and western IN so tornado activity should continue into that area next 2-4 hours.
    Good news for folks in those areas!

  45. Just saw a picture shown on The Weather Channel out of Illionois and from the looks of it looks like EF 3 EF 4 damage.

  46. I guess most fans cleared the stadium in Chicago earlier due to the conditions. Just checked my scores and they have end of first quarter. So not sure if that game resumed just now or has not resumed.

  47. They have not even completed the first quarter when that game resumes. There is still 4:51 remaining in the first quarter with Baltimore leading 10 – 0. I was thinking earlier that game or the Browns Bengals game would have weather issues with this front coming through. Numerous tornadoes reported so far across parts of the midwest.

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