Back To The Chill

137 Comments

11:51PM

We may have seen some heavy showers move through early Monday, but we got to enjoy mild air without the severe weather the Midwest and Ohio Valley saw just 1 day before. But the mild air is on its way out. One front came through Monday morning, preceded by rain. A second reinforcing front will pass early Tuesday morning, delivering colder air through the middle of the week. Slight moderation later in the week will be followed by another frontal system early in the weekend. There is some computer model differences in how this system will impact southeastern New England. At the moment, I am leaning toward a faster-moving and weaker system, bringing some unsettled weather later Friday into Saturday, and a return to windy/cold weather for the second half of the weekend and lingering cold into the start of next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England (eastern MA, southern NH, and RI)…

OVERNIGHT: Clouds increase with a sprinkle of rain or few flakes of snow possible near dawn, especially north of Boston. Lows in the 30s. Wind W 5-15 MPH gusting over 20 MPH.

TUESDAY: Lots of clouds and a passing light rain or snow shower, especially Boston area southward, through mid morning, then sunshine increasing midday through afternoon. Highs in the 40s. Wind NW 15-25 MPH gusting 30-35 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows in the 20s. Wind NW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill dropping below 20 at times.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Highs 35-40 inland hills to 40-45 coastal plain. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 26. High 48.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. PM rain showers. Low 33. High 51.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain or snow showers AM. Partly cloudy PM. Low 32. High 46.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 38.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 21. High 39.

137 thoughts on “Back To The Chill”

  1. Thanks TK!

    Today was a nice break from the extreme cold (well, “extreme” being relative)

    The moon has been so beautiful these past few nights. And my cats have been going nuts over the fact that it illuminates the whole room when the curtains are open. So at night my cat Poppy paws at the curtains and does everything in her power to get my parents to wake up and open them…hahaha

    2. my cat has been doing the same thing. been waking me up almost every night , he follows the moon through out the house. it goes porch, living room then my room up stairs.

  3. Thanks TK !

    5 hrs of sleep for a loss. I will not be watching the Denver game next Sunday night. That should be worth 10 pts for the Patriots.

      1. Had some light flurries here also. Wind is whipping. I love to take the dog out in the morning. Yesterday was like spring. Today I just stood and enjoyed the feel of the wind!

  5. Thank you TK.

    For Thanksgiving Evening:

    Canadian:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=108&fixhh=1&hh=240

    GFS

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=00&stn=PNMPR&hh=240&map=na&stn2=QQ500&run2=00&mod2=gfs&hh2=240&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    EURO

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=240&fixhh=1&hh=216

    This weekend’s event seems to be fading to showers of rain and that’s about it. 😀

  6. Re: Last Night’s Game

    3 reasons why they lost:

    1. Ridley’s fumble as the Pat’s were nearing the Panther’s goal line. Unforgivable.
    Ship that scum bag out of town!!!!!!

    2. Late in the 4th q, Pat’s nearing the goal line, 3rd and 1…a busted pass play into
    the end zone. What about a QB sneak? A running back run? A dump pass to
    Vareen? NO!! Then on 4th, they kick a field goal???????? I told my wife that it
    was the wrong play. Anthing other than a TD here loses the game.

    3. The last play of the game. We got HOSED by the officials. Terrible, terrible Call.
    Those guys SUCK!!

    There that’s it. Back to weather. Thanks for letting me rant

    OH, one last thing. With the Pat’s crappy defense, watch Manning score 60 next week.
    They haven’t got a prayer against manning!!!!

    1. I agree re Ridley and lousy last call. At one point they showed a panther player and a ref laughing and kidding around. I know it’s great to be friendly but it seemed excessive. Made me wonder immediately at how impartial the refs could be. Got my answer. I’ve read the rules this morning and I have watched, rewatched and rewatched the play. To me it is a very bad call. As far as not having a prayer against Manning, no team seems to. I’m assuming you are just using manning as it is the entire team. Denver clearly has done a far better job than New England putting together a winning team. That being said, I still think we are doing darned well with what we have. My team and I’m proud of them.

      And I’m back to weather also…….

      1. re: Manning

        I understand we have waaaaaaaaaaaay too many injuries on
        defense. Whatever the reason, our defense is USELESS and
        PATHETIC!!

        Therefore, Manning will have a field day picking us apart.
        He may just break a record and fire 8 TD passes. Denver is NOT better than the Pat’s. Give us our full complement of Defensive players and we beat Denver. With the defense we have now, no way. It’s as simple as that. 😀

          1. Perhaps, but with our defense, I don’t think
            we win in a shoot out. Could be a very high scoring game. 😀

        2. Manning also has exceptional receivers. Welker is what – his 3rd or 4th choice – where he was Brady’s first or second?

          Either way, I never count the Pats out.

          1. brady has almost always been using what would be considered 2-4 strings as starters and winning. tells ya something about Brady.

        1. It’s an honest assessment of a team that is not as good as there record.That’s it on that for me as there is weather to talk about.

      2. BOO honestly this team is showing resilance if anything. with all the rookies and injuries with the record they have it should be considered a good season for what we have.

  7. Ok. Big turn in tempature since yesterday. That wind is strong today. Cold night tonight and cold till Thursday. Friday should be in the 50s.

  8. Interesting that, with not a cloud in the sky last night, for this late in the season that it didn’t cool off faster. Or perhaps it isn’t unusual as it seemed to me as I sat counting stars 🙂

  9. Can someone please make the weather decent on Saturday. We have the big Thanksgiving parade in Plymouth and I’d hate to be marching in the pouring rain.

    1. From NWS:

      THE WEEKEND…

      AS MENTIONED ABOVE THERE ARE STILL SOME THINGS TO IRON OUT FOR THIS PERIOD…BUT CONFIDENCE IS SOMEWHAT HIGH THAT A PERIOD OF WET WX IS EXPECTED. THE RECENT MODEL AGREEMENT THAT LOW PRES WILL REMAIN TO THE NW SUGGESTS MAINLY RAIN OR BRIEF SNOWS CHANGING TO RAIN…RATHER THAN MIXED WINTRY PRECIP THROUGHOUT. WILL BEGIN TO
      HIGHLIGHT POPS BEGINNING FRI NIGHT AND CARRY THEM INTO EARLY SUN…AT WHICH POINT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAD COLDER/DRIER AIR RUSHING IN. THERE IS STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE INTERIOR EARLY SUN AS TEMPS COOL…BUT EXACTLY HOW MUCH AND WHERE REMAINS A BIT UNCERTAIN. TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHETHER THE SYSTEM IS MORE AMPLIFIED /CLOSER
      TO THE ECMWF/ OR FASTER /CLOSER TO THE GFS/. THE RANGE IS ANYWHERE FROM 0.25 /FASTER/ TO 1.0+ INCHES /MORE AMPLIFIED/ AS PWAT VALUES APPROACH THE 1.0+ INCH MARK.

    2. Not looking good at this point sue. I don’t know about pouring rain as I think it will be more on the steady lighter side. It’s a nice parade as I’ve been there.

  10. Pats: Eh! They make the playoffs. Anything can happen.

    Sue: It may end up like today. What time is the event?

      1. Hope it does not rain – would be just nasty this time of year. Good luck. My mom was a professional volunteer…..and typical of the day she didn’t work. I saw how much time and effort it took on her part. You not only work but have two little ones. Very impressive.

        1. Thanks Vicki. I want my boys to understand the importance of volunteering. I drag them to as many volunteer events as I can. 🙂 Not sure if they “get it” but at least I know I tried.

    1. Looks juicy, but air at 850MB is quite mild. Oh well. Surface freezing line
      is across the border in Southern Canada.

  13. Heard they just made a minor update to the euro.

    Hadi, just saw about your son 🙁 I’m so sorry, I hope he heals quickly!!

  14. Patriots looked good, Ridley ugh, what should have happened was it should have been a 5 yd defensive holding penalty, the Patriots should have had 1 play from the 13 yd line period. Carolina played well, mistakes that can be fixed, personally I think bill is a candidate for coach of the year. Nice day down here 🙂

  16. Interesting analysis from Gerry Austin on espn. Don’t agree with him but he brings up some interesting points. He refed 5 Super Bowls.

    2. He’s a dirtbag!!

      Listened on the SportsHub to a former official and Officials Supervisor, who
      flat out said they BLEW THE CALL!

      AND I agree totally.

    3. Listened to Austin. Thanks!!! He left out a very important detail, Hadi. Gronk had turned and was clearly heading back toward the ball. He could not move because he was not only being held but was being pushed back. Catchable? We’ve seen Gronk make some amazing plays.

  20. OS, from that link u posted earlier, looks like today’s 12z euro will have the update. Really curious to see if any changes are made to the thanksgiving “event”

  21. Hmmm, the plot thickens with the Canadian.
    The so-called “Thanksgiving Event” is getting more intense and more interesting.
    NOW 850MB temperatures are “Marginal” for SNOW.

    Look at 228 hours or 7PM Thanksgiving Day:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=240&fixhh=1&hh=228

    Then look at 7AM Friday:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=240&fixhh=1&hh=228

    That’s approximatelt 2 inches of qpf!!!!

    1. Now, we have to see what the Euro has to say with it’s enhancements.
      IS the Canadian onto something here OR out to lunch? Time will tell. 😀

      1. I agree. Look at the next panel for 216 hours. Clearly OTS
        WELL South of our area.

        The only thing I can say is: The models are onto a system forming and moving up the Coast. The only discrepancy is how close
        to the coast does it go and how far North does it go.

        There is 9 days or so for the models to get a form handle on it.

        We’ll just watch and enjoy the ride. 😀

    1. Is that ugh for Felger and Mazz? Cuz i have an equal ugh. They are totally wrong and I usually agree with them

  24. Pats have themselves to blame, despite the referees’ inexplicable call:

    1. Ridley’s fumble, as was noted above several times, was really bad. Any turnover in the red zone is really bad. Sure liked Green-Ellis when he was with us. Steady and never fumbled.

    2. Talib’s retaliatory (personal vendetta?) nonsense with Steve Smith. Belichick is usually a disciplinarian. After the second infraction, I would have made Talib sit out the rest of the game. He was being beat anyway by Smith. But more importantly, you cannot tolerate that kind of behavior. There’s something wrong with Talib’s mental state.

    3. Poor play calling late in the game. As was said above, the Patriots should have scored a touchdown late in the game and settled for a field-goal. I agree with trying a QB sneak. For some reason the Pats have gone away from that this season on 3rd/ 4th and short. For a lead-footed QB, Brady is actually quite good at lunging forward. He usually sees where there’s a gap and takes it.

    4. Finally, so many missed tackles throughout the game.

    On to weather: I could do without the roller coaster ride. I like it cold, as everyone on this blog knows. But, not warm one day and cold the next. I am hoping for some consistency this winter, but that’s a pipe-dream given that we live in SNE.

    1. Excellent analysis and I agree 100%. re: Talib
      My wife kept asking me WHAT he was on because he just wasn’t right.
      Did they shoot him up with something so he could play? I wonder.
      Looks like he was on Adderall which is an amphetamine or some such drug.
      You’re right, that man isn’t playing with a full deck. 😀

      1. Mankins is another one I can’t stand with stuff like that. He has a major temper issue and always has. Lot of unnecessary yarders for that guy too. Gets away with a lot of them.

  26. Thank the good lord I tell all my kids nephews etc etc, never look to these guys as role models,, in any 4 major sports, we all just root for laundry, if any of you ever saw the man cave you would be in ahh, You can love the Patriots without knowing how many time Brady goes to the bathroom, or if telib has mental problems. Can he play? Then put him in. 🙂

  27. Ok than back to the weather and the tempature sure is dropping fast. Should be a very cold start to tomorrow and quite chilly all day. I believe 50 is the average temp for November and won’t be seeing that tomorrow.

    1. What’s your thoughts on a possible weak to moderate El Niño setting up. Favoring a weak setup and we all know what that would mean. Tk this really could be an extremely cold and snowy winter.

          1. Well hadi right now I’m researching what state the enso will be in for this upcoming winter. Look for signs of any El Niño or la niño forming. I’m willing to bet we will be having a week El Niño winter in which case could be a snow producer. The sst/ sea surface tempature, artic ice and snowcover in Syberi and also tropic activity from season. These are some of the things I have been reviewing for my forcast.

      2. Very strong northern jet may be hard to dislodge. I can see the cold, but probably on the dry side.

        Most of the snow may come 2nd half of winter, but will it be enough to get us to or over normal? We’ll see.

  29. CPC shows below normal temps in both 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook. If we could get a storm to form on the east coast and track just right could be dealing with an accumulating snow for parts of SNE in that timeframe.

  31. Cold / dry pattern.

    The Saturday system will probably be early, with low pressure passing north of the area, VERY limited precip between late Friday and early Saturday then just a return to wind and cold for Sunday. It’s going to be a very cold Pats game.

    Next week, more of the same. Cold and dry to be the rule. The southern stream may TRY to get active enough to send a system off the East Coast but it is probably being over-forecast by the very poorly-performing ECMWF model, which I am currently not following very much. The GFS is doing a MUCH better job right now. And I don’t see this changing any time soon.

      1. We’ll probably end up with a weak one. But ENSO alone will not determine the winter pattern. We’ll see how the rest of the indices line up.

  34. Posted a while back about issues with the ECMWF that were showing up in the late Summer into early Fall. Over amplified storms that were deepening too fast, too far north and west, creating precip bulls-eyes that were consistently too high and too far west. This is partially due to misplaced Highs both in position and strength and I theorized that if this were to continue into the winter months it would manifest it self in mis-diagnosed coastal storms for SNE. I think we are seeing an example of this mid-week, next week.

    Anyway, right now I am taking general forecasting trends from the GFS/GEFS.

    The funny thing is that the “rip and read” mets used to live on the GFS and its MOS data. Now because of the success of the ECMWF they almost solely rely on the ECMWf OP and when it suffers confusion as it did this summer, the fall of 2012 and the winter of 2011-2012, forecaster paralysis can take place and a mess of a public forecast awaits.

    2. Hi JMA, nice to see to here. Nice post. Agree with your post. Euro has been coming around to the GFS solutions for a few months now. GFS has been very good inside of 7 days especially.

    2. bring it on would love to see snow on thanksgiving when out at my grandparents. so pretty when it does.

    1. i like the snow but the day before the holiday. so its on the ground but if its a light snow its great

    1. I thought it was a fun game to watch – not too intense other than Rask keeping us in it.

      “2 U’s! 2 K’s! 2 points!” -Jack Edwards

  39. Clearly something is brewing, questions abound about track etc…. Wouldn’t it be great to get like a 10 inch storm this early just to screw up people’s snow totals 🙂 just not when people are traveling.

    1. The only thing that is going to be brewing is a whole lot of media hype based on forced-discussions by met’s that are looking at questionable guidance. 😛

      Focus needs to be on days that we can actually predict correctly.

      The media wants details of a “storm” for Thanksgiving. This makes a GIANT assumption: That there will be a storm on Thanksgiving. End of story. 🙂

      1. I thought you said gfs has been doing very well? Should we pretty much ignore anything more than 7 days out?

        1. The GFS is doing an excellent job in the sensible range of about 5 days.

          Not completely ignoring beyond 5, as it has the general pattern. I’m just not sure about how much southern jet energy gets involved next week. Medium range models tend to over-forecast that in this pattern at that range of time.

    1. Not worth anything this far out.

      They need to pay attention to the fact that the Euro is a piece of crap these days.

  43. We’re smoking the turkey in the Weber grill, so hoping for okay weather on Thanksgiving. Last year we raked leaves while the bird did its thing, and that was okay too.

  45. As for T-giving weather, I would not trust a single model at this point. Also I did watch a couple of am TV mets and I can happily report that neither tried to “step-out” and make a turkey day forecast. I give it until tomorrow night and by then, one of them will mention the “possibility.” 🙂

Comments are closed.