December Arrives Early

84 Comments

7:25AM

A colder than normal pattern will continue for the foreseeable future. It will also continue to be a dry pattern. The only weather system of note during the next 7 days is likely to be a cold front trailing a low pressure area passing north of southern New England, with the front coming through early Saturday and sending the coldest air of the season so far into the region. You’ll hear talk of a possible storm around Thanksgiving next week, but honestly, it’s just too early to know what may take place. Medium range models show some southern jet stream energy trying to get involved while some cold air is in place here, but these models are iffy at best that far out. Realizing it’s a big travel and shopping week, it will be something I’ll be watching closely and expanding upon as soon as I feel confident to do so.

Meanwhile, the updated forecast for southeastern New England through early next week…

TODAY: Sunny. Highs 40-45, some upper 30s inland higher elevations. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 20-25 except 15-20 inland cold spots. Wind N 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Sunshine filtered at times by variable high cloudiness. Highs 43-48. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers at night. Low 33. High 50.

SATURDAY: AM clouds with possible rain/snow shower. PM partly cloudy and windy. Low 33. High 45.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 38.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 18. High 39.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 41.

84 thoughts on “December Arrives Early”

  1. watch the system go poof as we get closer don’t get me wrong i wan’t it and we need it but i just have a feeling the models are over doing the moisture .

  3. Vicki the 12/1 deadline is firm. I put it out there awhile ago and nobody contested. It would not be fare to go beyond that. I believe you have received many so far correct. Thanks Vicki, stay warm.

  4. Good morning and thanks TK.

    The Euro is back on board with the “Thankgiving” event and now NOT OTS, but rathera potent inside runner. It also has speeded it up to Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=192&fixhh=1&hh=168

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=168&fixhh=1&hh=192

    2. Oldsalty if and that’s a big if as tk said that storm forms closer It would be before Thursday possibly as early as Tuesday.

      1. I’d say more likely Wednesday, not Tuesday. But there is plently of time, so let’s see what happens. 😀

  6. re: Euro

    Serious question. If a forecasting model has been extremely reliable, HOW
    does it all of a sudden go wacky? Just doesn’t make sense to me.

    Now, IF it is due to so-called enhancements, then that is understandable.

    So then that leads me to the Atmospheric conditions conundrum. “Assuming” nothing else has changed, then the only thing that could make the model run amuck is the
    atmospheric conditions. For some reason whatever the conditions are, the model
    just doesn’t recognize it and thus doesn’t exactly know how to handle it. In other
    words, the programming algorithm (code) hasn’t been programmed to appropriately deal with these exact conditions.

    When I write a program and make it operational, if I see that it doesn’t handle
    a certain situation properly, I investigate the code and make the appropriate change
    to handle the situation. I just don’t understand why the code in these models isn’t
    appropriately updated each and every time the model does NOT handle a situation
    properly.

    But I rant……..

    😀 😀

    1. My best guess is it takes enormous resources (money) and time to change code for these things. Probably lots of hoops to jump through, regulations, approvals, etc. Probably makes it not worth it to make small frequent tweaks.

      1. BUT, on the flipside, these models play a major role in the safety and security of people and resources, so one would think it would be worth it to invest the time and resources in making them work properly. I see your dilemma 🙂

  11. He’s figured out how to crawl. He’s just too young to walk with it. He gets frustrated easily but is being a trooper. Thanks for asking.

  12. It’s going to be a pretty bitter Sunday night game.
    I wonder where the warm air is that people talked about for the end of November into December, oh I know it’s in the south 🙂

  14. If next weeks storm does materialize it’s gonna be really for interior sections. The high to the north is retreating and with warm oceans it’s gonna be rough to get snow at the coast. Maybe towards the back end it gets cold enough but bc we are discussing snow by no means do I think this is for coastal sections. I will be more than pleased being up in central Maine.

    2. You keep throwing out hints here and there. will you be posting that winter outlook that you said was coming out a few days ago, of course you have till 12/1.

  19. Looks like the energy that goes into that system from the south is still off of the west coast and digs into southwest during the early weekend. There is also a piece of energy that comes down from the north, but doesn’t merge or pick up the southern low and pull it farther up the coast. Still plenty of time and for it to change and we have already seen the GFS going back and forth and had a lot of precip here on the 00Z run.

  20. 12z GFS has a good handle on the pattern for the most part. Not sure about the southern stream energy late in the period but more confident that we get another few dumps of cold air out of Canada during the forecast period. Dry spell continues.

    With luck, my very short and simple winter forecast will be out around 7PM.

    1. Of course!! What kind of questions were they asking, there were more questions about the Carolina game than the upcoming Denver game. This is why Weei is fading into the abisque. They need to get football guys in there asking questions. Holly and this other boob r a joke. I’m sorry hadi, I was screaming at the top of my lungs and even called the station, SPORTSHUB has it all, also did anyone see the write up from borgi, lol did he watch the game? I just was talking with E.Bridgewater head coach and he also says these baseball minded analyst asking questions, football and baseball are completely different, I like Fred on Weei but that’s about it, everybody else doesn’t make sense.

  22. I have not seen the 12z GEFS as my source for that product is not updating, but generally agree the GEFS has a decent handle on current weather and future trend.

    I probably won’t do a full blown winter forecast, but certainly willing to share my thoughts on the remainder of 2013.

    Very Simple. Cold and dry, with occasional very brief warm ups that will generally come to an end with a brief shot of rain. About every other cold shot will deliver what will be labeled the “coldest weather of the season”

  23. Yes, Hadi I did hear that. He has very little respect for others and the job they do or the fans and their right to information about a team they pay to see and support the advertisers that create the giant television revenue streams, but because of a great track record, and his continued winning teams, he can do it without any consequence or push back.

  24. Argggggggggghhhhhhhhhhhhhh……

    Well let’s see…

    GFS = OTS
    Canadian = OTS
    Euro = Well still somewhat interesting:

    http://i.imgur.com/6YHFIhx.jpg

    FIM = OTS

    Do we have a theme here?

    In the past, we’d throw the others away and run with the Euro. Now the consensus
    is the others and we throw away the Euro. 😀 😀

    1. There’s always hope for an intensifying clipper, in January or February, to track just south of New England and drop 3-6 inches of snow.

        1. Per my snowfall total, it can happen 3-4 times. 🙂

          Based on the last 2-3 months, very progressive pattern, a fairly dominant northern stream, have to think it continues into the winter and that southern stream lows and moisture are going to be below the norm.

      2. The clipper idea is a good one and also a slight shift in the Canadian high pressure could bring something good too. It is a long winter, plenty of opportunities, I just don’t see some 6 week train of storms like of 2011.

  25. It’s sad that as a fan base and media doesn’t demand more from BB. How can people tolerate that type of behavior is beyond me. I would never pay a penny to support an organization that has a leader like that, win or lose. Total lack of respect for the people that pay his salary. Shame on him for setting an example like that fornthwnfuruew leader of this region.

    1. The questions they were asking were a joke, BB will never respect a sports analyst that doesn’t really understand the game especially holly, lol this guy has said he’s bought the football for dummies book. If you know football and your question is not a dumb question he will respect you, they should stop all interviews on the SPORTSHUB and start having Scott Zolak and Fred Smurlas interviewing him.

      1. He won’t even have a conversation with Felger and Mazz. I get that the questions might be weak but it’s still the tone and attitude.

  26. Of course!! What kind of questions were they asking, there were more questions about the Carolina game than the upcoming Denver game. This is why Weei is fading into the abisque. They need to get football guys in there asking questions. Holly and this other boob r a joke. I’m sorry hadi, I was screaming at the top of my lungs and even called the station, SPORTSHUB has it all, also did anyone see the write up from borgi, lol did he watch the game? I just was talking with E.Bridgewater head coach and he also says these baseball minded analyst asking questions, football and baseball are completely different, I like Fred on Weei but that’s about it, everybody else doesn’t make sense.

  27. Here is my winter forecast:

    Below average temps for December through February. Dry pattern will prevail but will help deliver above average snow due to ratios being high due to cold. We will have 2 storms that deliver 15+ inches.

    March will come in average temps and above average snow this season.

    Total snow for Logan will be 68.8 inches.

    1. Yes, Nice discussion. Thank you.

      We shall see, but clearly the current trend is OTS.

      Let’s see how the 0Z runs look tonight. 😀

  30. I think this ends up over the fish like the one last week did. It still needs to be watched but my gut tells me fish storm.

  31. I’m hoping this does end up over the fish… Too much fun planned for next week that would not do well under “interesting” weather conditions…

  32. Mr Cohen replied to my email. He is calling for a warm winter for the northeast despite the heavy snowfall in Syberia. He said despite that we still could have snow/stormy periods. Must say I was caught off guard.

    1. It seems consistent. If a system actually makes it here and if it is when we have weather cold enough, we get snow. That was really nice of him to take the time to respond. Thanks so much for sharing John!!!!!

    2. He contradicted himself nicely based on what I saw him say on TV last year. Oh well!

      My blog has just been updated as a winter forecast so chat there for a while. 🙂

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