Winter Forecast 2013-2014

146 Comments

7:05PM

This is it. A simple forecast without scientific explanations of why I think the winter is going to turn out the way I am about to describe. We can get into that type of discussion in the comments section below if anybody desires to do that.

Last year, I forecast it to be chilly and dry to start the winter, and stormy/snowy the 2nd part of the winter. I didn’t quite get the first part right. It wasn’t overly stormy, but it was mild, so temperatures were under-forecast. The second half of the winter panned out pretty well.

So, what’s coming this season? November can often be a sign of the pattern for at least the first half of the winter, and taking that into account along with the current and predicted states of the important atmospheric and oceanic parameters, I think what you see is what you get from now into if not through January. It’s a dry pattern, and I see that continuing. Temperatures will fluctuate but average below normal in the longer term. Most of our precipitation events will come in the form of rain showers at the end of brief mild spells when northern jet stream storm systems pass north of the region. Secondary cold fronts may produce snow showers and squalls from time to time. If a clipper type storm rides a little further to the south with cold air in place, that is when we will see most of our snowfall events, and they would be on the lighter side in general. The southern jet stream will be quieter than average, and when storms do get going down to the south, they stand a better than even chance of grazing the region or moving offshore and staying too far away to have major impact.

The second half of the winter will likely  have longer mild spells, but more significant blasts of cold air, balancing the overall temperatures out to near normal. With less certainty I say that we continue the drier than normal pattern, but with more activity than the first half of the winter resulting in a few chances for significant precipitation events. Most of the accumulating snow in southern New England will probably occur during February and the first half of March before dropping off as we head toward the start of Spring.

Summary…

Precipitation: Below normal.

Snow: Near to below normal (25-35 inches Cape Cod and South Coast, 30-40 inches for Boston area, 40-55 inches elsewhere with highest amounts interior eastern MA and southern NH).

Temperature: Below normal.

Month-by-Month…

December: Temperature near to below normal. Precipitation below normal. Snow below normal.

January: Temperature below normal. Precipitation below normal. Snow near to below normal.

February: Temperature near to below normal. Precipitation near to below normal. Snow near normal.

March: Temperature near normal. Precipitation near normal. Snow near to below normal.

146 thoughts on “Winter Forecast 2013-2014”

  4. Thanks TK.

    As I posted on the previous blog I am going for above snow so we shall see. I think 2nd half of winter will surprise people.

  6. Thanks tk. Interesting thoughts. So if I am reading right sounds like a lot of wasted cold air. Did you factor in the high probability of a weak El Niño forming. Again nice post and thank you.

  8. Will be interesting if the GFS continues with the polar vortex dropping down 2 weeks from now. That would be some cold stuff.

  12. Thanks TK for your winter forecast.

    TK – No doubt the amounts you have for Boston N&W are clearly below normal but isn’t the 25-35″ for Cape Cod/South Coast actually “normal” for them for a typical winter?

    Also TK, do you have a specific number in mind for Vicki for Logan?

    1. Yes it is closer to normal for CC and that was to reflect the storms being offshore (Cape-Scrapers).

      My # for Boston is 38.8 inches.

  13. All recorded, TK!

    And if I am not mistaken we have a birthday to celebrate today. Happy Birthday, Emily 🙂

  15. Huge difference between say Bourne Ma and Newton Ma, Bourne Ma on average will receive 30 inches, Newton averages 45 inches, there’s only 30-40 miles that separate these towns. Nantucket if I’m not mistaken averages only 6-8 inches for an entire winter.

  18. Thanks, TK!
    Happy Birthday Emily!!!
    Based on TK’s winter Forecast – my high snowfall prediction appears to be rather silly! Oh, well 🙂

  19. Hi Vicki,

    Can you post the snow numbers received so far at your convenience? I have not posted mine yet but I just want to get an idea of others. This winter is just too tough for me to call, even as a guess. I usually can come up with a number by the early fall. Thanks in advance. 🙂

      1. Thanks for asking, Vicki – my husband and I are feeling much better. My mother, not so much – she is home – but it isn’t good. The usual symptoms of liver cancer, loss of appetite and jaundice – she doesn’t have yet. But the cancer is moving around differently, or something. Her legs and abdomen are filled with fluid and she is highly uncomfortable – and they can’t do anything about it ’cause it could make her liver worse. She wants to be home – not in rehab. It’s just hard for all of us.

        In any case, I try to think of happy things – like Snow, the holidays, etc. It looks like Marc and me will be spending Thanksgiving by ourselves, as my mother doesn’t want it and neither does my sister. I offered to cook a meal at their apt. but they don’t want to. Oh, well. I guess, more leftovers for us.

        1. I should say that if my mother prefers to be home rather than rehab – that’s ok. What I meant when I said that it is hard for us is that the whole situation is hard.

          1. Thanks rainshine and I’m glad you and Marc are feeling better but am very sorry to hear the news of your mom. I’ll keep her in my thoughts and prayers….you too. I know what a very difficult time this is for you.

        2. Hi Rainshine, glad to hear yo and your husband are feeling better. I know going through this with your Mom must be tough and even more so during the holidays. I will keep her my thoughts and prayers too.

  21. My pleasure, Philip – here you go

    Hadi 68.8
    Cat966g 65.0
    shotime 58.0
    Shreedhar 52.0
    Scott77 51.0
    Vicki 43.3
    kane 41.6
    TK 38.8
    Haterain 38.0
    Charlie 35.4
    rainshine 35.0
    Joshua 32.0
    Old Salty 28.5
    Sue 24.2
    Tom 19.4

  23. Boy the 12Z GFS is really slowing this thing down. Still looks mostly offshore so far but still holding onto it along the coast on thanksgiving morning.

  25. i believe alot more model runs and this thing goes out to sea. Just looking at the fact of the placement of the area of high pressure over the great lakes. some of the models don’t make since. and the euro is over doing.

  26. Better day today than yesterday 🙂 Did anyone see that lee Oswald dolls r being handed out in bars near the grassy knoll in dallas? They r having a festival down there this week lol, crazy!!!

    1. Agreed. Seems like anything outside of 84 hrs with any model right now is to be taken lightly. Seeing a trend to a slower progressing system. What do u think?

  31. Just saw on the WBZ blog that they will be airing a winter weather special on Saturday, November 30th at 7:30. They said they will be discussing a new scale that will help them prepare for winter storms. Should be interesting.

  32. Hello All,

    Some ramblings from the resident oldster.
    Had to take my wife over to Back Bay today. Why is it that at EVERY SINGLE
    intersection, we were confronted with a RED light. NOT even ONE stinken green
    light. ALL RED. Go Figure. I Rant again…

    Re: The weather
    Are we still discounting the Euro? IT has been ALL over this system for days and it
    shows ZERO signs of backing down. Latest run is ALL JUICED UP!!!! I mean
    LOADED as in 2-3 inches PLUS of qpf. Looks too WARM for Coastal areas, but could
    be a block buster inland and up North. Stay tuned. 😀 😀 😀

    1. Curious to see the ensembles to see if they agree with the inland track. I still think this will be more offshore, but not as offshore as the GFS. It’s anyone’s guess at this point.

    2. OS – you can drive through San Francisco and not hit one red light – the lights are perfectly timed. I have temper tantrums in the car with the lights around here. Even Mac – who is as mellow as anyone gets – is frustrated by them.

      1. I drive my wide nuts with my attitude with the lights.
        I go INSANE!

        Even If we get stuck at one, they should be synchronized such
        that you hit the next one green. Around here, No way.
        I love it when one sits at a red light for 2 minutes, it turns green,
        you start to accelerate and 100 feet later you’re stopped at the
        next green light.

        ALL I can say is that the person(s) responsible for
        synchronizing the lights is/are intellectually challenged and
        I am being nice. Nothing but MEATLOAF for gray matter.:D

  34. Bring it in as I will be in Maine. Models are all over the place and we need to wait a couple days. I think we need to focus on the fact we have a storm system on the coast and cold air is nearby. We can start ironing outvote details over the weekend.

    1. That run of the EURO brings the 850mb temps over 10’C even into Maine, but probably changes to snow at the end.

      1. Something is up here folks. Sure it may still end up ots
        or even a coastal hugger like depicted above. But there
        WILL be something and it “may” be a significant storm.

        Let’s keep it away from the fish. 😀

  38. I know it’s early but this could be a storm that has rain in the Boston/Providence corridor with snow in Worcester points north and west

    1. Sure could be. Mets still discounting Euro, even though it has been
      consistent for 3 days.

      I do not understand.

      I cannot fathom how a very very reliable model can just all of a sudden
      go haywire? I cannot get a handle on that at all.

      I’m guessing that the Euro pushes farther Eastward and the GFS and
      CMC come back towards the coast more. Could end up a “Benchmark” system
      with the rain/snow line very close to the Boston area. 😀 😀 😀

  41. Regular blog update in the 5PM hour.

    With mom partially sidelined due to her bad wrist and upcoming carpal tunnel surgery, I am helping her quite a bit. NO driving for Mom! I’m TK’s Taxi Service! 😀

  43. The weather channel brought up that this could be a sizable snow event for inland areas and sizable rain event in the BIG cities, we shall see 🙂

      1. Depending on final track, intensity and how much/when
        the colder air gets in “could” snow in Boston. Odds are against
        that, but it “could”. More likely Worcester. 😀 😀

        1. Do you believe the Weather Channel?
          Even so, I said it “could” be snow, but odds were against it.
          The Weather Channel blows Donkey Sh***.

  46. Hi could somebody go to bostonchannel. Com and send there winterforcast here. I don’t know how to do that. Thank you.

  50. Im starting to notice from all models the area of low pressure is very long and drawn out. Lots of moisture available with this. Its been a while since the southern/sub-tropical stream has been involved.

    1. Ace,

      Take a look at the UKMET. It doesn’t show it long. It shows
      the making of a MONSTER, as does the JMA.

      Euro and Canadian have it long and drawn out, but equally LOADED.

      This “could” REALLY get interesting.

  51. I never thought I’d see a day where the GFS seemed most reasonable. I guess the other models are doing their obligatory one day shift NW in storm track, 7 days out.

  52. well i just posted my weather blog and i stated how i did not think we up in new england would miss this storm and now the models are all heading towards phasing and closer. with a good size storm. Im going to stick with my thinking and say that they don’t phase and the moisture from the south stays south

      2. sorry miss typed. i did not think we up in new england would experiance this storm and now the models are all heading towards …..

  54. It will not happen the way the euro is depicting. We need the rain though. I was out doing leaves and the yard is so dry. I have never seen it this dry in 15 years at my house.

  56. Slight delay on the next post (apologies). Early this evening!

    Preview:
    *Spotty light rain Friday with warm front, milder air but will feel a bit damp/raw anyway.
    *1st cold front comes through early hours of Saturday with a few rain showers, daytime Saturday is breezy and cool (40s) but with lots of sun.
    *2nd cold front comes through Saturday night with a few snow showers/squalls possible.
    *Sunday is windy and unseasonably cold with very low wind chill for November. Have fun if you’re going to a football game. 😉
    *Monday is still cold and breezy but won’t feel nearly as bad as Sunday with a little clipper passing to the north, may produce a few showers of snow/mix at night.
    *Tuesday is dry and chilly.
    *Wednesday we’re on the edge of elongated storm offshore, may end up cloudy, precip (probably rain) may reach southeastern areas for a time, but still leaning toward a miss for the most part.
    *Thanksgiving looks cold and dry.

      1. You got a lot of heart and soul mr oldsalty. I’d love to see it snow for you after all your model chasing but I’m not sure it’s in the cards this time. But I went against you on one storm and won’t again. What do you think of all these reports of a warm winter. I’m not buying it.

        1. John,

          Honestly, I don’t really expect it to Snow in Boston.
          Oh so many factors would have to line up just right.

          Doesn’t mean I won’t keep watching.

          Now here is the latest Score Card:

          Big Hit with a Coastal Hugger:

          Euro
          JMA
          UKMET

          Middling to light hit off shore some:

          Canadian
          FIM
          Navgem
          DGEX (extension of NAM)

          Total Miss:

          GFS

          Which one of these is not like the other?????????????

          If we “blend” all but the GFS, we pretty much get
          a “Benchmark” storm.

          So there you have it.

          I personally, would not lean towards a miss at this time.
          Could it change? Certainly.

          I patiently (NOT!) Await the 0Z runs. 😀

        2. Re: Warm Winter

          Long range forecasting has never been my thing.

          I think the Winter will probably feature some warmth, mixed in with some cold for sure. Overall, Probably a bit milder than normal and less snowier than normal.

          😀 😀

  58. Yes there has been some consistency in the Euro runs, BUT there has also been decent consistency in the GFS runs regarding this system. And which of these 2 models has been performing better of late? HINT: It starts with G. 😉

  60. re: COLD for Sunday’s Big Game

    I really think this helps the PAT’S.

    Manning is a great QB, but I think he turns into wimp man in the cold. 😀
    Brady sucks it up and gets down to business. 😀

  66. Yeah but the GFS had a handle on things, right? 😀 😀

    The scary part of this run is the 0C 850MB is dangerously CLOSE by.

    This could get MORE interesting yet. 😀

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