Temp Low / Fire Threat High / Storm Looming

118 Comments

11:05AM

Lots to talk about in this update!

Before we get to the storm threat for Tuesday night / Wednesday, which is important to talk about given the fact it is such a major time for travel, and we’re also looking for rain to alleviate drought, let’s start with the present, and that is today.

This is an Arctic Sunday, one of the coldest November days in quite some time. Boston will not be setting a record for a record low-high temperature however. For this date, it was 29, but their high will be recorded as 31 as it occurred shortly after midnight. Impressively enough, however, it will not likely get back to 30 at Boston during the day today, something that would be colder than normal for January, let alone November. And this very cold air is covering all of southeastern New England, along with a strong and gusty wind from the northwest. This is going to have an impact on comfort for players and those attending the NFL football game between the Patriots and Broncos tonight in Foxboro. If you are going to that game, think playoffs in January, and dress accordingly. The air temperature will likely be in the lower 20s to even upper teens, with wind chill values near to below 10 as a gusty wind continues. And don’t forget, it’s been very dry, and with recently-fallen leaves and a gusty wind, fire danger is quite high. All it takes is a discarded cigarette or embers from somebody outdoor burning leaves, etc., to have a rapidly-spreading brush fire.

Monday, high pressure in control, cold air still in place, less wind, so a quieter/cold/bright day, but you’ll notice high clouds starting to show in the southwest sky later in the day before the sun sinks to its early bedtime. This is the first hint of a storm system brewing for the middle of the week.

This storm is being born of what will eventually be a combination of energy in the northern jet stream (which has been dominating our weather with cold shots between milder spells so far this month, and a whole lot of dry weather) and the southern jet stream, which has been largely inactive, but is sending a low pressure area eastward out of the US Southwest, picking up Gulf of Mexico moisture, then turning up the East Coast. Though I initially thought the bulk of this system would pass southeast of New England, it is apparent now there should be enough of a link-up to pull the first low pressure area closer, probably passing pretty much right over southeastern New England during the day Wednesday. But before this happens, some moisture will stream ahead of it, partly as a result of the link between the 2 streams beginning to take place, so the sun of Monday will be a memory by Tuesday, which will end up a cloudy day with even some spotty rain trying to break out before days’ end.  When the main low comes up, it will be dragging mild air with it, resulting in a mainly rain event for the forecast area of southern NH, eastern MA, and RI, but cold air being drawn into the back side of the quickly departing low Wednesday evening may cause some snow to mix in as precipitation tapers off in the evening. Though this storm may be loaded with moisture, our total amounts may not be as beneficial as they may have been due to the quick-moving nature of the storm, and the possibility that the heaviest rain band will take place west of the region. You’ll also note that I mentioned “first low pressure area” above. There should be some elongation of energy to allow a second low pressure area to get going, but this one should indeed remain offshore and pass harmlessly to sea in the early hours of Thanksgiving morning (if it ever was closer, it would be cold enough for snow). Right now, however, it looks like we’ll be seeing another cold air mass move in for the holiday on Thursday, which should be a windy and chilly day with dry weather (not as cold as today). A very weak disturbance may pass north of the region on Friday (the big shopping day otherwise known as Black Friday), but we should remain dry and chilly here. Looking ahead into the weekend, it also looks mainly dry and chilly at this time as a new area of high pressure builds to the north and refreshes the supply of late Autumn chill and keeps us in our overall drier than normal pattern.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

THIS AFTERNOON: Mostly sunny. Temperature holding in the 20s. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with gusts around 40 MPH. Wind chill in the teens.

TONIGHT: Clear. Lows 10-15 except 15-20 urban centers. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty. Wind chill below 10, around zero at times.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind 5-15 MPH, still gusting 20-25 MPH through midday before diminishing.

MONDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Low 25-30. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light rain possible in the afternoon. Highs 40-45. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: AM rain/wind. PM rain showers may end as snow showers early at night. Windy. Warming into 50s to near 60 through midday before falling back to the 30s late.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Mostly sunny and windy. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows around 20. Highs around 40.

WEEKEND: Dry and chilly. Lows in the 20s. Highs 35-45.

118 thoughts on “Temp Low / Fire Threat High / Storm Looming”

  3. Thanks tk. Could not pay me enough to sit in that cold today. I’m the opposite of some here who don’t like the hazy, humid hot conditions of summer which I love but just don’t like the cold of winter, but I learn to deal with it. Working outside does not help but it is what it is and I try not to complain. Lousy timing for this storm since Wednesday is the worst travel day of the entire year. Enjoy the day everybody and go pats.

    1. Go Pats. I’m going to be COLD just watching those player out on the field.
      BRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR 😀 😀 😀

  4. Wxrisk.com
    ABOUT NOV 27 EAST COAST LOW.. the nearly Identical match of the 12z NAM and 0z EURO is hard to beat.

        1. 75% done out there. I had to trash a couple old light sets and pick up a few new ones. I left about 2 hours of work left out there to do between Friday morning, Saturday morning, and Sunday morning. It will be cold then, but not as brutal as today has been. Bottom line, between those mornings and the fact I am starting early inside – Monday & Tuesday night – and also working inside during part of Friday afternoon, all day Saturday (except for the local tree lightning on the common), and all afternoon Sunday, I will have it all up and ready for first lighting on Sunday at sunset. Tight squeeze this year with the latest possible Thanksgiving, but it will be pulled off. 😀

          1. We have about 25% outside to do also. We had four light strings that needed replacement. I’ve been working inside since fri and am about 95% complete with the decorations I do every year. But I have a couple of things I want to add this year. I am going to love waking up next Friday and having this done :).

    1. That ends up significantly farther to the East than previous runs.
      Does this leave the possibility of hang back precip falling into COLDER air?

      Stay tuned for future runs.

      Something isn’t right.

    2. Noticed that too. Very elongated at 72h and then consolidated and by us to the northeast. Looks like it had some of the holiday eggnog early.

  9. Any shift east with this low pressure center COULD make a difference for some areas when it comes to precipitation type. I am still favoring a rainorma but will keep an eye on future model runs.

  10. 26.5 with a negative 7 DP and 20 wind chill which seems high to me as wind is in the teens with fairly regular gusts into the low 30s. I’ll enjoy the game from the family room tonight.

  12. Hi Vicki,

    It is time for me to commit to a snow amount once and for all = 31.7″

    Based on TK’s forecast of mainly cold/dry and warm-ups just prior to what few storms do come our way, the number above may be overdone.

    Also, I predict one “biggie” (12-18″) and two “moderate” events (4-8″) during the course of the upcoming winter. Many dry times ahead.

  13. Ok I give the Euro credit where it’s due, for having a better idea than the GFS for many runs, but I still do not like its interpretation of the overall pattern much beyond the midweek event… It’s making more changes than the average Euro-to-Euro runs do.

  14. Some idiot tossed their cigarette butt out the car window and started a fire on the side of route 1 in Norwood today around noon.

      1. Next time I see it I will pull in front of them and empty my drink out the window :). I had a cigarette end up in my car from someone who threw one out the window before when I had window down.

      1. North, that run was strange.

        The NAM run was MORE to the East from previous runs.

        I don’t think it changes much. Perhaps becoming more of a coastal hugger than an inside runner, but results for us are
        virtually the same.

        1. This thing has been all over the place. How does your wife do with the cold? Mine wanted me to go for a walk today. Umm, nope!

  16. Just came back from running a bunch of errands. Was at Legacy Place in Dedham and
    the shoppers coming back with their carts from Whole Foods were literally being blown
    over. That wind was over 50MPH and I don’t exaggerate when it comes to that. I’m a Large person and no weakling by any stretch and I c0uld barely remain standing. I couldn’t believe how strong that wind is out there. The Patriot’s game could end up a
    disaster. 😀

  18. Am I losing my marbles?
    This looks tropical. Look at 500mb and 250mb

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=PNMPR&hh=240&map=na&stn2=UV250&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=240&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=QQ500&hh=240&map=na&stn2=PNMPR&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=240&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=12&stn=UV250&hh=240&map=na&stn2=QQ500&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=240&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    2. This whole storm following so far has been strange. I have a feeling it will do something no model has showed.

  21. Answer to today’s AccuWeather Trvia Quiz. (weather??!!)

    Which of the following is NOT a real town?
    A. Hailstone, UT
    B. Snowflake, AZ
    C. Weathervane, VT
    D. Frostproof, FL

    The correct answer is C.

    1. You know, I think I got this correct because I had heard of
      the other 3 towns and never heard of Weathervane, VT.

      Great Quiz. Many thanks. 😀 😀

    3. Thanks, Longshot!
      I had to look it this up – Frostproof, FL!
      The name was a marketing ploy to convince potential landowners that the town has never had, and never would have, a frost that could destroy the large citrus-driven economy. However, only a couple of years later, a frost killed most of the citrus in Frostproof. Prior to being named Frostproof, the town was named Keystone City. However, after being confused regularly with Keystone Heights, a city in North Florida, Frostproof was coined.

  23. So, at 12z today, neither model showed full phasing ?? Is that why it looks like the low pressure is elongated again or almost showing 2 separate lows ???

    At least the 0z EURO this morning seemed to go with full phasing, with one low dropping quickly to 986 mb.

      1. Blowing everything down here. Trash night so all the cans blowing around. I have a small bistro table with two chairs on my front porch and the chairs keep blowing over.

    1. Sorry Philip. I should have told you. I saw it but won’t record it until when I have my computer on. If you don’t hear from me then, please remind. Thanks

              1. John if someone is busy and gives me a total on 12/3 I’m not worrying about it. If someone gives a total today, like Philip did, and I miss it, I’m going to record it. My guess is the majority if not all will have guesses in so there are no worries. Mid December is another story but I know everyone here and have confidence the numbers will be in. Its all in fun:)

                1. I’m not worried as it seems most already have there numbers in because they know there is a deadline. Enjoy the game. I picked Denver in my pool.

  26. Vicki put me down for 80 inches for boston. I will give my reasoning by 12/1 but main reason is a weak El Niño and not buying into a warm winter which most forcasts I have seen seem to be going with including mr Cohen, and also he sent me an email that his forcast will air next week with Harvey and I can’t wait to see it.

    1. Even my 6 yr old grandson knows he can’t hold the ball. If he drops it playing with his dad, he calls it a Ridley. I think his dad may have some influence here but REALLY.

  29. He (Ridley) needs to be cut TOMORROW ! You just cant give him the ball anymore. That wasnt even much of a hit, by NFL standards anyway.

              2. True …. Holding to a field goal there is a mini victory. Plus, if they can have a strong 2nd qtr, they do get the ball to start the 3rd ……

  32. When they have bolden BB was playing Ridley why??? I have BTW managed to get everyone here in the positive thought category that my SIL says these are “designed” fumbles.

  36. Of course ……

    All I wanted was for the Pats to go 3 and out to start the 3rd qtr, so I could go to sleep …

    24-7 ………..

      2. Positive thinking…faith in OUR team. Doesn’t matter how it spins. What a heck of a game

        Oh and I did let the doubters in from the deck 😉

  42. Thanks, TK.

    It sure has been feeling like winter. And then 60’s on Weds.? Well, we need the rain. The rain could upset travel but if it was snow it could be worse. Let the snow come around Christmas – not a heavy snow to upset travel – just a light enough snow to make everything look pretty on Christmas Eve and Christmas!

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