Jetstream Expressway

79 Comments

7:27AM

A deepening storm will take the “jetstream expressway” up the East Coast just in time for the busiest travel day of the year (Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving). For southeastern New England it means rain and wind (snow will be confined to areas far to the north and west) as the storm tracks inland from the coast an drags mild air up the seaboard. Just ahead of it, a band of moisture may produce a few flakes of snow or drops of rain in parts of the region today, but this will not amount to anything significant.

Behind the storm, Thanksgiving will be a windy and cold day as high pressure builds toward the region and cold air funnels between it and the departing low. The high will move a little more overhead Friday which will be a cold but more tranquil day, though an upper level disturbance may bring some clouds to the area. High pressure retreats a bit to the north over the weekend while moisture increases to the south. November should end on the bright side but chilly Saturday, with more clouds and possibly some light precipitation for the end of the weekend (does not look like an important storm).

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY:  Cloudy. Spotty light rain/snow. Highs 40-45. Wind SE-S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT:  Cloudy. Rain develops south to north. Temperature rising through the 40s. Wind S 10-20 MPH increasing to 20-30 MPH overnight.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain, heavy at times through midday, tapering to occasional and lighter in the afternoon. Highs 55-65, warmest over eastern areas. Wind S 15-35 MPH gusting over 40 MPH, some gusts above 50 MPH possible coastal and higher elevations.

WEDNESDAY  NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers, changing to snow showers from west to east. Lows 25-30. Wind W 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 32-37. Wind NW 15-25 MPH with higher gusts.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 35.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 37.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light mix. Low 29. High 39.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light rain/drizzle. Low 35. High 42.

79 thoughts on “Jetstream Expressway”

  2. Thanks, TK!!! Enjoy shopping with your mom. Posted on other topic that we had flurries here this morning. It was very pretty. And JR has only 30-45 mph winds for tomorrow??

  4. Morning all,

    Stepped into the car this morning and observed snow flakes. Was snowing all the
    way into the office. Now stopped.

    I don’t know IF this means anything, but it’s getting pretty windy already.

    I’m still watching the SPC for any word. Now they have us in a risk for T-storms
    tomorrow whereas before they did not. Also, 5% chance of tornadoes in the South
    Eastern states today. Does that translate up here tomorrow AM?? Most likely
    NOT, but something to monitor.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk_0700.gif

  7. From NWS:

    STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS:

    85 MPH SOUTHERLY WINDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO EVENING /STRONGEST WILL BE AROUND MIDDAY/. WHILE MOMENTUM TRANSFER WILL BE LIMITED BY A STABLE BOUNDARY-LAYER /INVERSION/…PRECIPITATION DRAG PROCESSES WITH THE EXPECTATION OF HEAVY RAIN CAN CERTAINLY YIELD STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME.

    – RULE OF THUMB: TAKE HALF OF H85 WINDS AND CONSIDER SUCH WINDS TO GUST AT THE SURFACE. STRONGEST ARE THE 26.0Z ECMWF AT 100 MPH
    SUGGESTING 50 MPH AT THE SURFACE.

    – HIGH CONFIDENCE IN GALES OVER THE WATERS…WITH WIND ADVISORY
    IMPACTS OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND. WILL DROP THE STORM AND HIGH WIND WATCH ACCORDINGLY. MAY NEED TO EXPAND WIND ADVISORY HEADLINES.

    1. Look at this 06 GFS chart of 10M wind speeds. Barbs are in knots and
      the color shaded areas are in Kilometers per hour.

      Note the coastal MA areas in the orange and deep orange and inland yellows:

      These are 60,70 and 80 KM/H OR

      Inland 37 mph, coastal areas 43-50 mph.

      These are not gusts to the best of my determination.

      http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=06&mod=gfs&stn=UV10m&comp=1&run2=06&mod2=gfs&stn2=UV10m&hh2=036&fixhh=1&hh=033

    2. HIGH WIND WATCH DISCONTINUED…..
      HIGH WIND ADVISORY UP INSTEAD:

      http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/box/

      …WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT…

      THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A WIND
      ADVISORY…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

      * LOCATION…NORTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT…CENTRAL AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND ALL OF RHODE ISLAND.

      * WINDS…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

      * TIMING…LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO LATE WEDNESDAY.

      * IMPACTS…STRONG SOUTHERLY AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED DAMAGE. WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE MAY DOWN TREES AND POWER LINES…AS WELL AS LEAD TO SOME PROPERTY DAMAGE. SOME POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE.

      PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

      A WIND ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE 31 TO 39 MPH OR GUSTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 46 AND 57 MPH. WINDS THIS STRONG ARE CAPABLE OF DOWNING SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES…POSSIBLY CAUSING ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES. DRIVING CAN ALSO BE DIFFICULT…ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES

  9. 6 months from today is Memorial Day !! ( In Massachusetts, campers are allowed to go out 6 months from the current date to reserve campsites in State Parks and if you dont reserve pretty close to the 6 month date, the sites are usually all taken).

    Under this context, Spring is just around the corner. 🙂 🙂

    1. I just can’t plan that far ahead!!! It just doesn’t fit my personality type.
      For me, If I feel like doing something tomorrow or even today, then I do it.
      What’s this crap about reserving 6 months in advance???????????? 😀 😀 😀 😀

      1. LOL, I feel the same way about everything else !! But with camping, unfortunately we do have to look beyond my 1-2 day comfort zone or we get shutout from all the beautiful State Parks.

  10. Wow, the Gulf of Mexico surely is open for business. That is a wall of water in the southeast US.

    With the recent cold, the ground in my yard fealt fairly frozen. I wonder if flash flooding is going to be an issue during the heavy rain tomorrow ?

    1. NWS doesn’t seem to think so.

      You are correct about this system being loaded with moisture.

      My Son is flying to Dallas/Ft. Worth as I write. Luckily he’ll be above
      this mess and shouldn’t have any trouble, save for perhaps some
      turbulence.

      re: Ground frozen

      I think the depth to which it was frozen is too shallow to be a major concern.
      It will thaw out both from underneath and above starting slowly NOW and
      then it will quicken the pace as it warms and the rain commences. 😀

    1. Very interesting. Thank you.

      It is possible that it could occur up here as well, but I don’t see it
      as a big deal here. Our main wind problem will be with the main storm
      event.

      AND just because HM says it will happen, does NOT mean it will. 😀

      1. tk how positive are you on this winter being dry. Also could you please if you get a chance take a look a the focast by Judah Cohen just google. He has some interesting thoughts and also some wildcards thrown in there, only if you can but if you do please let me know your thoughts.

          2. Hey sue thank you very much, that was very nice. Happy thanksgiving sue. I don’t know how to do any of that stuff like copy/ paste.

        3. I’m not 100% positive, but enough to call for below normal precip. .. I’ll check out JC’s outlook.

    2. That is very cool. Someone must have used it before because I already had it bookmarked. Of course I didn’t remember I had it bookmarked which might be key.

  19. I notice some additional watches/warnings coming up (flood watch and high wind warning). I wonder how many people may end up with issues cooking their meals Thursday should widespread power outages occur. I can say from the last 3 years, 2 tropical systems and the Feb blizzard last year, it can take a few to many days to get power back IF there are multiple outages. And also, this is a fairly chilly airmass following in the wake of this storm for anyone that would be without heat.

  20. I suspect we also may be dealing with a frezze over early thanksgiving morning as the colder air works back in. I think the salt trucks could be out as this could be a hazard.

    1. I don’t want bad driving for anyone. However, if the temp dropped enough to keep food cold outside, that would be helpful for anyone losing power.

      1. Probably as it will be chilly yes.i wonder though is the wind going to be worse than this past Sunday, because that was some wind.

        1. I hear mixed reports. JR said 30-45 which was pretty much the same as last Sunday. But OS’s links and NWS comments make me think higher.

      1. Ok, this site does NOT like links with spaces. Sorry.
        Here is the post:

        High Wind Warning

        ——————————————————————————–

        URGENT – WEATHER MESSAGE
        NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
        1138 AM EST TUE NOV 26 2013

        …STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY…

        .SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH ARE LIKELY AS A STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFIES AND TRACKS ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS INTERIOR SECTIONS OF RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA.

        MAZ013>021-RIZ001>007-270045-
        /O.UPG.KBOX.WI.Y.0020.131127T0500Z-131128T0500Z/
        /O.NEW.KBOX.HW.W.0005.131127T0900Z-131127T1800Z/
        WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA- EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-
        EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA- NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-
        EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-

        INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…FOXBORO…NORWOOD…CAMBRIDGE…
        BOSTON…QUINCY…TAUNTON…BROCKTON…PLYMOUTH…FALL RIVER…NEW BEDFORD…MATTAPOISETT…FOSTER…SMITHFIELD…PROVIDENCE… WEST GREENWICH…WARWICK…BRISTOL…NARRAGANSETT…WESTERLY… NEWPORT
        1138 AM EST TUE NOV 26 2013

        …HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY…

        THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND WARNING…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY. THE
        WIND ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

        * LOCATION…SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING THE GREATER BOSTON AREA AND ALL OF RHODE ISLAND.

        * WINDS…SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.

        * TIMING…LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

        * IMPACTS…DAMAGE TO TREES…POWER LINES…AND PROPERTY ARE POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY. TAKE ACTION NOW TO SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

        PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

        A HIGH WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST AN HOUR…WITH GUSTS OF 58 MPH OR GREATER
        AT ANY TIME. DAMAGE TO TREES…POWER LINES…AND PROPERTY ARE POSSIBLE WITH WIND OF THIS MAGNITUDE. POWER OUTAGES ARE LIKELY.
        TAKE ACTION NOW TO SECURE ANY LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS.

        1. More from NWS:

          HIGH WIND THREAT…

          ANOMALOUS LOW LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF +4 STD FROM CLIMO PER LOW RESOLUTION GEFS ENSEMBLES MOVES ACROSS CT/RI AND EASTERN MA 09Z-18Z. NEW 12Z NAM HAS CORE OF STRONGEST WINDS OVER RI…SOUTHEAST MA INTO GREATER BOSTON AREA AROUND 15Z WITH 925 MB SPEEDS 70-80 KTS. WHILE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INVERTED GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL WAA…SFC TEMPS ON SOUNDINGS NEVER WARM BEYOND 59F OR SO. MEANWHILE 2 METER TEMPS FROM ALL MODEL GUID SUGGEST SFC TEMPS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 60S ACROSS THIS REGION TOMORROW. THUS MORE MIXING THAN MDL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST. IN ADDITION…STRONG PRES FALLS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA WILL ENHANCE THE ISALLOBARIC WIND COMPONENT AIDING THE WIND SPEEDS. THUS AS MENTIONED ABOVE WILL UPGRADE TO A HIGH WIND WARNING FOR MUCH OF RI…NEARBY SOUTHEAST MA NORTHWARD INTO THE GREATER BOSTON AREA

  23. SHORT TERM PATTERN: Wetter – dents the drought.
    MEDIUM TERM PATTERN (NEXT WEEK): Milder, damp.
    LONGER TERM PATTERN: Returns to cold/dry.

    None of these are favorable for much in the way of snow, though it is VERY early.

  24. Read JC’s outlook. Generally agree. Not so sure he gets his positive AO, but I do lean dry in either case. I think the odds favor cold 1st half, milder 2nd half, with enough “snow events” to get us on the map, but not above normal (hence my 38.8 for Boston, which is below normal, but not by a great deal).

    I agree with him. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in trying to predict the AO, especially this year.

    1. so the chances of snow better in first half I would think, i think you have most in the second half for snow with not much falling if any till after the first of the year.

  25. Hey all,

    Haven’t checked in for quite some time, wanted to say Hi! OS, I see you still have your OCD with model runs…HAHA. Thanks for the info.

    My winter prediction has been a cold, snowy first half, and a warmer second half. Looks more and more like I might be wrong but I’m sticking to it. 🙂

    1. I always ask if too many maps are bothering anyone. If it does, I’ll stop
      posting them. Each time I ask, I am told to KEEP THEM COMING. 😀 😀 😀

        1. And Pembroke. Sorry.

          Right now, it sure looks like there could be some
          damaging wind gusts tomorrow.

          AS I said yesterday, 40-50, ho-hum. 60+, you have
          my interest. 😀

  27. For 3 or 4 runs now, the EURO has had a low next week. Its now at hr 192, I think … at 999mb, falling to 988mb at 216 hrs as it heads up the Maine coast.

      1. Yes, I noticed that. Didn’t say a word. You know why?

        WARM 850mb temperatures. So no matter what, it would be rain. Even WARM after it blows up North and East of here.

        Just too MILD, that’s all there is to it. 😀

  30. Thanks TK! Love the title!

    As for the weather…Yikes…
    This doesn’t look so good for my brother who is traveling to North Carolina (by car)…

    1. Oh dear – when did he leave – not that it matters as he’s driving right into it. My SIL called from Atlanta and said they were getting lots of rain.

  31. I was just out with the dog and if it were just a bit colder, it would have that snow feel. I sure does have the feel of something brewing though. Very calm.

Comments are closed.