Warm Storm Then Cold Wind

338 Comments

4:00PM

Big changes unfold in the next couple of days. A strong storm passes through southern New England on one of the busiest travel days of the year as a double-barrel low pressure area moves north northeast, the first low center passing over western and central New England by the middle of the day Wednesday, and a second low center passing just a little further east later in the day. These combine to bring mild but very wet weather for Wednesday with moderate to heavy rain and even a chance of a few rumbles of thunder. Rain will cause some areas of flooding, especially in poor drainage areas and where leaves block storm drains. A bigger story may be the wind, which will blow from the southeast to south between 25 and 40 MPH with gusts as high as 50 to 60 MPH possible. Wind damage and power outages may result. The peak of both the rain and the wind will be in the window of just before dawn to just after noon on Wednesday before things settle down somewhat. As the storm pulls away, colder air will flow in on the back side of it, and a little leftover moisture means the risk of rain showers going over to snow showers later Wednesday night. There is a chance that a few areas could receive a coating or dusting of snow in the early morning hours of Thanksgiving, but this should not have a significant impact as a dry and cold wind will evaporate most anything that falls by about sunrise.

Thanksgiving Day itself will be a blustery and very cold day, not quite to the level this past Sunday was, but still feeling more like December or January. Although fair weather is expected, it will be quite cold and windy for local travel and high school football games.

High pressure moves more overhead by Black Friday which should be a fair and chilly day. Some clouds may appear in the sky as a very weak disturbance passes north of the region.

The weekend starts bright for the last day of November and turns cloudier for the start of December as high pressure to the north eventually shifts the wind to the east and southeast and allows some moisture to return to the region.

Early next week looks mild and damp and I’ll be watching for a possible ocean or coastal storm around Tuesday.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Overcast. Rain develops, heavier at times toward morning from south to north. Evening lows 35-40 then rising into and through the 40s. Wind E to SE 5-15 MPH increasing to 15-25 MPH toward dawn.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy. Rain, heavy at times through midday, tapering off and becoming showery later in the day. Local flooding. Highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s. Wind SE to S increasing to 15-35 MPH with gusts as high as 45-60 MPH (not widespread). Wind damage and power outages are most likely in areas with strongest winds combined with heavier bursts of rain.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers then snow showers with a changeover of any showers from west to east. Lows around 30. Wind W 15-35 MPH with higher gusts.

THURSDAY – THANKSGIVING: Sun and passing clouds. Highs 30-35 but in 20s much of day. Wind NW 15-30 MPH with higher gusts. Wind chill often 20 or below.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 33.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 18. High 35.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light mix. Low 27. High 39.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of drizzle or light rain. Low 39. High 44.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain. Low 40. High 47.

338 thoughts on “Warm Storm Then Cold Wind”

  3. Thanks TK! I have a feeling it is going to be a tough day in my work world tomorrow with branches losing power. UGH!

    1. It won’t be. The west wind will dry everything out very rapidly, even if we get a dusting of snow overnight.

          1. Actually it’s not zero. There may be a plume of moisture that slides up from the SW after the air is cold enough between midnight and 5AM Thursday, including areas S of Boston.

  11. Due to weather and expected winds, some airports are forecasting 3-4 hour delays. I believe that Logan may be forecasting 3 hour delays. Sometimes it’s about the amount of time the airport allows between take-offs and landings when it is windy. Take offs can be normally be scheduled 2 minutes apart but when weather is windy, they can often make it 4 minutes between flights. It doesn’t take long for things to get backed uo.

    4. Was just txting my sister in law in Atlanta. They have delays of course and she says they will only get worse. She was going to deadhead and join us this week. Her timing is not so good. She was scheduled just before sandy to visit and then again last feb 9.

  12. The Temp has rose from 37.3 at 7pm to 37.7 at 8pm to 38.0 now, temp should be around 50 degrees at 7am w/ southerly winds increasing.

  13. I think most John don’t see any snow tomorrow night, maybe a few flurries but things will be drying out nicely IMO

  15. Here come’s the warmth …..
    10 pm obs ….

    Cape Hatteras, NC …. Temp 65F, Dewpoint 64F

    Wilmington, NC …. Temp 70F, Dewpoint 66F

  16. Wind Warning up for much of SE MA including Boston. Gusts over 50 expected. I think rain may end around 2-3 pm but we might get another rain burst later.

    1. Right longshot. Ending at that time only to start backup later. Tough ride coming in with the rain and accidents. Today could be an all time nightmare for traffic. Already a huge travel day now will be to a standstill. Heard coming in that most people think this is the worst day to travel all year but it is actually the Friday before Mother’s Day and Friday before Columbus Day, I’m not buying that but that’s what they say. To all my friends here happy thanksgiving and stay safe.

      1. On the roads, yesterday was probably a heavier travel day than today will be, at least around the rush hours. Today is more spread out, which may help. We shall see. 🙂

    1. Logan does 1/5th of what New York does, and Philly does 3 times as much plane traffic than Logan, so New York and Philly r major hubs as supposed to Logan

  18. 58 here with .63 of rain so far. Gusts really starting to pick up. Many schools on early release today too. Dangerous with those winds at their highest this morning.

  19. Watching that rain area approaching the South Coast heading for Boston, points south. That could be the heavy rain that helps mix some of the intense winds down to the surface.

    1. I don’t think they were looking for some kind of “snow event” tonight, just that we may see some flakes sometime after the main event winds down. And it will surely be cold enough. Some of the short-range guidance has a plume of moisture nearby. If that takes place, it’s snow or snow showers (minor accumulation, i.e., coating-dusting at best). It’s almost the reverse of what happened yesterday morning on the advanced side. No it’s not a lock, but you cannot count it out. And it may be important for someone who needs to walk or drive at 3AM tomorrow and finds a coating of slushy ice on their stairs or car. I’d rather have it in the forecast and have it not happen, then the other way around. 🙂

      1. I don’t think John was thinking a flake or 2, I don’t see anything that causes for any concern, I do shoot from the hip hadi, some like it, and some don’t 🙂

    3. Hey Charlie you have a lot to learn here. It may be warm now but tonight the tempature is going to bottom out. I really wish you would approach things differently here as your approach needs work.

      1. John I’m 40, I don’t need u to tell me how to approach things, im not a beat around the bush kinda guy, you say it’s gonna snow enough to cause problems? and I say it’s not gonna, especially enough to cause any concern, got a lot to learn? please John please lol

        1. Charlie most here will agree with me and we lost Keith because of you. It’s only what you say that matters like with sports or weather. I’ve been around a bit longer than you Charles. Just nicely approach things in a better way. If you were on top of your forcast you would know that the chance of light, sugercoating snow is in the forcast maybe as the cold air rushes back in.

            1. We will leave it at that. But Charles I never said that I thought we would get that I said there was a chance. You’ll see tomorrow at 10am while at the hs football game it’s gona be chilly. Stay safe.

    1. Only if 3+ inch amounts are realized. Boston’s deficit is nearly 7 inches. If they get 2, that still leaves them in moderate drought.

      1. Also I think, TK, the problem is that we get a few inches and then nothing so that few inches is lost / evaporated / whatever. It really needs to be consistent to make a dent and hold it.

    1. Just check the traffic on your iphone map — its lit up like a Christmas tree along 93 north – 95 looks ok right now.

  27. I still have a feeling the storm is going to under-achieve in the Boston area for rain amounts. May not be the case in parts of SE MA and the Berkshires.

  28. I am NOT a fan of NWS issuing severe thunderstorm warnings for areas of heavy rain that may bring strong winds just aloft down to the surface. That is what the high wind warning is for, and issue a flash flood warning if the rain is going to be intense enough to cause that kind of a problem in localized areas.

    1. So far the winds are nothing to write home about either – which is not a bad thing considering all of those who need the power for food and cooking.

    1. Dry slot rapidly approaching from the SSW, heading for central and eastern CT, much of RI, and much of central through east central and northeastern MA. Going to cut down rain amounts significantly, IMO. Only way out of it is if we see rapid convective development to fill this region in, or something very intense later.

  30. Just received a text from my wife that we lost power at home in pembroke. As I was sending this she called and said it went back on. She said the wind down there is intense. Windy in boston but right now not what I thought it would be yet.

    1. We’ve had a lot of our branches report brief power outages on the south shore. It is going to be a long day!

  33. I feel like we all knew the wind wouldn’t be as bad, but I’m almost at 1 inch of precip, .93 and rising quickly in moderate/heavy rain.

    1. Well if you look above, we do agree on rain amounts, but I heard all kinds of 3, 4 and 5 inch amounts being tossed around by the media. Those ain’t happenin’. Maybe a 3 in heaviest areas.

        1. Most of the Boston guys were reeled in and reasonable, but some of the national broadcasts (cable networks *cough cough*) not so much. And some of the online sites run by media were a little out of control, IMO.

  35. 39 in DC, 34 in Atlanta, low 40’s in the panhandle of Florida, 32 in Dallas, 14 in Chicago and almost 60 here. Wow.

    1. Alot of that speaks to the aging trees that cover much of the region. We’ve talked about that at the weather conference. One of the best businesses to be in during the next 25 years will be tree removal.

      1. What we’re seeing OS is really just pockets of the strong gusts and I think the worst of it has been over SE MA, especially Plymouth County. The power outage #’s speak to that.

  37. From NWS 7Am update:

    GUSTY WINDS WILL PERSIST FROM NOW UNTIL ROUGHLY 4 PM THE STRONGEST OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND AROUND 8 TO 9 AM.

    BIG Woooo.

    As far as what I can see with my own eyes and confirmed by surface observations,
    this was a COLOSAL BUST!!! True it is a good thing, I’m just commenting on
    the BUST factor here.

    I’m NOT going to believe a WORD of what the NWS says.

      1. I was talking to a colleague .. We both felt the NAM over-forecast both wind and rain. Impressive storm, yes. Memorable, not unless you are unfortunate enough to have a tree fall on your garage or some such.

        1. Strictly ROUTINE and then some around these parts.
          I can’t speak to folks in Southeastern MA that may
          have had some problems. I can only comment on what
          I am seeing, which is NOTHING. 😀 😀

          Let me check again as I walk to the window. ZZZZZ
          YUP, routine rain event with a little wind. 😀

  39. I’m on a 5-day weekend starting today, and even though I have errands to run for my mom and walking the campus of my old school with my son this afternoon, it’s nice to be sitting in my 5-window, 2nd floor den, watching the wind/rain from in here. 🙂

    1. There it is. Granted, it’s not a dry slot where we are about to see everything shut off and break out into sunshine (if that happened we’d shoot to 70 degrees). There is a strong low level jet and plenty of moisture so we’ll see some of it fill in, but this is not going to be that monumental wall of rain that comes in and trains for hours and hours. A little more impressive for SE MA as you can see there are still some heavier echoes lined up for them.

  41. Watching Eric Fisher last evening on the 11PM broadcast, he “appeared” to be
    a bit skeptical about the NWS “High Wind Warning”. 😀 😀 😀

    You know, he just might be a keeper, which is what TK was telling us from
    the beginning.

    1. I follow his FB posts. I quote one of his from last evening (I could have written this myself):

      “For anyone seeing media reports of a Nor’Easter…this is not a nor’easter. And storms aren’t ‘upgraded’ to nor’easters. Not sure why you can’t just talk about the weather without attaching a title to it. In any case, travel safe!”

      -Eric Fisher, WBZ TV

  44. Looking at 9AM obs. 😀 😀 😀
    Not much change.

    Boston:
    Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
    (KBOS) 42.38N 71.03W
    2 Day History

    Last Updated: Nov 27 2013, 8:54 am EST
    Wed, 27 Nov 2013 08:54:00 -0500
    Weather: Heavy Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy
    Temperature: 59.0 °F (15.0 °C)
    Dewpoint: 57.0 °F (13.9 °C)
    Wind: from the South at 23.0 gusting to 34.5 MPH (20 gusting to 30 KT)

    Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA
    (KPYM) 41.91N 70.73W
    2 Day History
    60.0 °F
    Last Updated: Nov 27 2013, 8:52 am EST
    Wed, 27 Nov 2013 08:52:00 -0500
    Weather: Rain Fog/Mist
    Temperature: 60.0 °F (15.6 °C)
    Dewpoint: 57.0 °F (13.9 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 90 %
    Wind: from the South at 16.1 gusting to 34.5 MPH (14 gusting to 30 KT)

    Norwood Memorial Airport, MA
    (KOWD) 42.19N 71.17W

    61.0 °F
    Last Updated: Nov 27 2013, 8:53 am EST
    Wed, 27 Nov 2013 08:53:00 -0500
    Weather: Rain Fog/Mist
    Temperature: 61.0 °F (16.1 °C)
    Dewpoint: 59.0 °F (15.0 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 93 %
    Wind: from the South at 17.3 gusting to 33.4 MPH (15 gusting to 29 KT)

    And the WINNER IS:

    Taunton, MA
    (KTAN) 41.89N 71.02W

    62.0 °F
    Last Updated: Nov 27 2013, 8:52 am EST
    Wed, 27 Nov 2013 08:52:00 -0500
    Weather: Light Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy
    Temperature: 62.0 °F (16.7 °C)
    Dewpoint: 57.9 °F (14.4 °C)
    Relative Humidity: 86 %
    Wind: from the Southeast at 25.3 gusting to 46.0 MPH (22 gusting to 40 KT)

  45. I’ll take a bust this time around…when you foolishly buy a house with a driveway that slopes toward your garage, you don’t mind less rain. 🙂

      1. You mean the dry slot? Overall when does it end for us TK? Most stations were saying a slow down by noon, others say 6-8pm.

          1. Hi Tuttle!

            Dry slot’s gone by. Another lull mid afternoon. Then another batch before it winds down by 7 or 8.

    2. We lived in a house with that kind of driveway when I was about 11/12. We loved roller skating and go carting down it. I don’t think my parents liked the flooding though 🙁 Good luck!

      1. Thanks Vicki…the basement is waterproofed…and any water that does get in the garage goes immediately into a grate…but I still hate seeing it and it stresses me out.

      1. Hey North! Yeah we talked about it before. Have done all I can so I just have to live with it. Leaves are the main issue…there isn’t a leaf on the street that won’t find it’s way into my driveway grate at some point 🙂

  46. Does anyone know if conditions in Uxbridge were favorable for sleet/ice buildup on the branches? My daughter said she woke up to about 6 huge branches down and 15 or so smaller ones on her front tree. The odd part is her back tree’s limbs are all weighted down as if they had snow on them – pretty much perpendicular to ground.

    1. Vicki,

      Tk can help more, but Uxbridge is pretty far South, so even though it
      is SW of the city, it is South. I’d say a big NO to that. 😀

  48. I got clever and added the snow totals to dropbox so I could edit them even when I’m not on the computer. Unfortunately, the entire file became corrupt. Figures. I think I have all of the totals. Please let me know if I missed you or if I have yours wrong. Thanks and sorry 🙁

    John 80.0
    Hadi 68.8
    Cat966g 65.0
    shotime 58.0
    Tjammer 57.7
    Shreedhar 52.0
    Scott77 51.0
    Vicki 43.3
    kane 41.6
    TK 38.8
    Haterain 38.0
    Charlie 35.4
    rainshine 35.0
    Joshua 32.0
    Philip 31.7
    Old Salty 28.5
    Sue 24.2
    Tom 19.4
    Retrac 27.7
    JimmyJames 36.2

    1. I hear rumors that our office will close around 3PM. NOT due to wimporama
      storm, but due to Thanksgiving. They are very generous. 😀

  51. I cant believe how little precip there is west of this storm.

    If I lived in say Syracuse or Buffalo, NY and someone told me there was a deepening storm tracking across westernmost New England in late November with enough cold air around in western NY state, I’d be thinking clobber city.

        1. Take a look at the above loop. Does anyone else see
          the North Westward development of additional
          precipitation??

          Is something up?

          2. Oh absolutely, I think that next bubble of precip is going to keep precip going for a while.

            In retrospect, the idea of separate storms on the GFS (even when it was showing both OTS) has kind of happened.

            There’s been one big bulk of precip so far, but there certainly seems to be a second, almost separate batch to come.

            1. Tom,

              Sure seems that way.

              850 temps do NOT “appear” to lower
              enough before ALL precip is outta here.
              Will be watching. 😀

          1. Al Roker seems like a really nice guy, but his
            meteorological intelligence seems to be lacking.

            Is he even a real Met? I thought he was just a reporter like the Weather Gals
            on channel 7 way back? You know with the
            Marker and clear board.

            😀 😀

    1. I think the squirrels attacked the power lines. 😀 😀 😀

      Have you heard any wind reports from there?

      Just seems so unlikely to have happened to me. 😀

    1. About 45 straight minutes of heavy rain, during which, I’d estimate .25 to .5 inches has fallen just in that timeframe.

  59. I recorded both WeatherWiz and Longshot.

    I will try very hard not to miss anyone starting tomorrow and going through the weekend but am in and out with family and computer will not be on a lot. Sunday is Dec 1 and I will make an executive decision that if anyone waits until early next week to get their totals in because of holidays, etc. it is just fine. It is absolutely fine, also, to post your totals from tomorrow through Sunday, just please make sure I have said I saw them. I’ll plan to post everyone’s on Monday !!

    John, you ok with that??

    1. Hi Vicki, put me down for 30.5.”

      I want to go lower but even if the overall winter pattern doesn’t support big snows, all it takes is one anomalous biggie to mess it all up. Even with early indications of cold air regularly coming into the eastern us, without a consistent -NAO, we will get a lot of storms like the one today.

  60. This in from NWS office in Upton NY:

    WITH STRONG LOW LVL COLD AIR ADVECTION ADVECTING EAST BEHIND THIS FRONT…SFC TEMPS FELL MUCH MORE QUICKLY THAN EARLIER
    FORECAST…FALLING 10 DEGREES PLUS WITHIN 2 HOURS.

    SIGNIFICANT UPDATES WERE MADE TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND NEAR TERM TRENDS. THIS RATE OF TEMP FALLS WERE NOT HANDLED BY ANY FCST GUIDANCE.

    Hmm, I wonder IF this could apply to 850MB temps as well?????????????????????

    Btw, neither NWS office mentioned ANYTHING at all about possible 2nd batch
    of precipitation??????????????????????????????

  62. Sorry im late to the party, just woke up 😛

    Man is it pouring! Winds here died down to a creeping hault around 9 this morning but the rain never let up. I wish i had a rain guage (its on my xmas list), but i would say most in se ma WILL reach 3″ amounts before all is said and done.

    3. I took the week off from work. Been a while since ive slept in that late, non-hangover related lol. My fiance’s parent’s cat has been staying with us the past few weeks while they’re in Italy and for some reason he decided to meow and howl all night so didnt get much sleep.

  66. Really NWS? Looks like a little more than that is coming.

    AS FOR RAINFALL…HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO RI AND
    SOUTHEAST MA AS LOW LEVEL JET MOVES ACROSS THIS AREA AND THEN
    OFFSHORE BY 18Z/1PM. SHOWERS OF LESSER INTENSITY WILL CONTINUE
    MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON AS MID-UPPER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE AREA.

  67. http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

    My first instinct from this radar is that a cold front on the developing low pressure area is moving into SE Mass. Look at that narrow little intensifying rain band developing south of the main rain band that just drenched Boston.

    However, Providence to its west still has a southerly wind.

  69. 1.42 here and wind hasn’t been above 4 mph for hours. What gives. We are not that far west of Boston. Arghhhhh. Uxbridge power loss may be a blown transformer or something similar.

    1. Glad to hear and that inlaws have a generator. Long drives in heavy rain are draining !

      Happy Thanksgiving Hadi !

  72. Just checked Wunderground weather stations. Closest station to me is Easton. It showed 2.23″ precip so far which seems about right.

  75. Precip loading up south of long island. Looks to translate into here with more heavy rains next few hours.

  78. How quickly the NWS story changes between 11 and 1.

    AS FOR RAINFALL…STILL EXPECTING ANY 6 HRS OR SO OF SHOWERS WITH
    VARYING INTENSITY AS ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROUNDS THE BASE
    OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AND CROSSES THE REGION BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z
    OR SO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINNING
    TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. HEAVIEST RAINFALL SHOULD BE FOCUSED
    ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA AS LOW LEVEL WIND SHIFT LINE/BOUNDARY
    ENHANCES LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH RRQ OF UPPER LEVEL JET
    CROSSING THIS REGION. THUS UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 1 INCH OF RAINFALL
    POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH 7 PM.

    1. They are simply a HILARIOUS BUNCH over there!!!

      I’d be curious to know What their training is.

      They write really technical discussions, the only problem is, they are
      Dead wrong too often. 😀 😀

  79. 12Z euro shows coastal low about 1 week from today. Also shows MAJOR cold coming into the western US with an east coast ridge of warmth setting up shop.

    2. Hi Vicki, not a breath of wind here in Sharon either, but approaching 2.50″ of rain. Did you happen to get my snowfall prediction earlier? 30.5″ 🙂

        1. Yes, it is delicious. I still go back to my fav though, Ginjo in Walpole. Best Chinese ive ever had hands down.

  83. My office is officially closed now.

    I’m sicking around for a bit and will be heading out fairly soon. 😀 😀

  84. Coming in on 2 inches of rain, geez looking at radar, a lot of us may come close to 3 inches, which is good, a lot of the rivers and ponds r way up from last week, about time 🙂

  85. Tweet from Eric Fisher @ericfisher: NE snow lovers – the next couple rounds of precip may be white instead of clear. Light snow Sun…maybe Mon too…and perhaps more sig Tue?

    1. Henry Margusity was talking about that yesterday that D.C. Philly, and NYC could see some snow before it ends no accumulation though.

  94. Let’s hope so John. Doesn’t feel like the wind has picked up yet. Thats a lot of wet to dry up in a short period of time.

  95. Boston established a new record rainfall for today at 1.69″ (so far) beating the old record of 1.24″ set in 1891.

    Also today (11/27) Boston received exactly 12″ of snow during the Portand Gale in 1898. It is the most ever received for the month of November.

    3. Thanks Philip. I know I’ve said before that I bought a more than interesting book on the Portland gale at a small bookstore in scituate called warnings ignored. It had a huge impact on that area – Humarock in particular where we spend out vacations. It permanently separated Humarock from Scituate. Thanks so much for reminding me of the date.

    3. FWIW, that currently is a EURO event and ONLY a EURO event. 😀 😀 😀
      Other models do NOT have it.

  101. Down to 49 and ever so slowly falling. OF course the back end of the precip is nearing
    and WILL shut off before it gets cold enough to transition to snow. 😀 😀 😀

  102. What’s DT smoking? What does he mean???????????????????????

    Wxrisk.com
    about an hour ago
    *** ALERT ** SHOCKING DEVELOPMENT ABOUT UPCOMING WEATHER PATTERNS ***

  104. Storm actually behaved mostly in the parameters of the posted forecasts. Rain amounts and wind gusts (though the strongest were really confined to a rather small area).

    1. Other than wind I’d agree. Unless it changed at the last minute. I fully understand that it works by area but we were not close to even 30, let alone 60. It seems that may have been confined to around the coast.

      And as I say that we had the first big gust all day. Mom nature is not happy with me I think 😉

  105. Storm winding down. A couple more waves of rain to come through but they are getting shower in nature. In a few hours it will be cold enough for snow in most areas but the final batch of precip looks like it’s ahead of its progged time and will probably be through before the cold air gets in. The remaining precip falling as snow will likely stay off to the NW of the forecast area. I’ll watch for anything that develops upstream, i.e., to the SW of the region, into the overnight hours. Not too likely but if it does happen it would be in the form of snow in most areas by that time.

    Windy & cold Thanksgiving!
    Cold & more tranquil Friday.
    Chilly & bright Saturday.
    Clouds increase Sunday.
    A few episodes of rain/snow possible Monday-Wednesday of next week – details to be worked out.

  108. Happy Thanksgiving to a great group of friends!
    Many thanks to all for making Woods Hill Weather the best 🙂
    A special shout-out to TK! Thank you for all the hard work!!!
    ♥ Wishing everyone a wonderful Thanksgiving Day shared with family and friends ♥

  109. I cruised home from work tonight as that was a nice surprise. Even the t was quiet. Either I hit everything just right or the forcast scared people into staying home. Either way I was happy.

  110. well it is warm and humid earlier now its getting chilly. though i have been sicked all day so i was looking out my bedroom window while the house was shaking do to the wind. Just saw that there could be a light winter weather event sunday, though rain tuesday with the bigger storm. 🙁

  111. Good morning and Happy Thanksgiving to each of you!

    Yesterday there were a few MA towns that got over 3″. I think Boylston was one of them.

    Today’s high will be 35 from everything I see, but I am wondering if all cities in eastern MA will get over 32.

    The B’s played a horrible game last night. Ugh!

    And the balloons in the Macy’s parade are still “iffy.” I did not know this, but the balloons can’t go if there are sustained winds of 23 mph or gusts of 34 mph. Looks like it will be a last minute decision.

  112. How is Monday / Tuesday looking? I see some chance of r/s showers during that time frame but could it be more?

  119. Happy thanksgiving. Enjoy the day!!

    Tuesday afternoon storm looking cold on the euro, enough for snow pretty much everywhere.

  122. Happy Thanksgiving to all of you and I hope you all have a wonderful holiday! I am looking forward to spending time with family, enjoy a nice meal, and hopefully seeing the Dallas Cowboys beat the Oakland Raiders.
    What a difference from 24 hours ago with those mild temperatures and the rain. When I was driving home last night it was snowing. No accumulation but you got to love New England weather where in one day it was rainy and mild and to end the day snowflakes were flying.

  124. A very Happy Thanksgiving to all. I hope your day is full of special moments

    And wishes to all of our friends who celebrate for a Hanukkah full of love

  125. Happy Thanksgiving All!!

    http://caccioppoli.com/Animated%20gifs/Thanksgiving/0026.gif

    re: a “possible” Tuesday event.

    Euro, Canadian and UKMET All have it, with the UKMET the most intense but with
    the Canadian perhaps laying down the most qpf, about 1.6 inches and it LOOKS COLD!!!

    GFS, FIM, NAVGEM don’t have it. JMA not far enough out, but shows something for Tuesday AM. WIll check the DGEX. It’s having a problem and I can’t load it.

    So, here we go again. The Battle rounds begin. Which model wins out?

    My guessing is that it will be a combo of EURO, CMC and UKMET. 😀 😀 😀

    1. Correction, looking at the 06Z GFS and not the 0Z, the GFS does
      have this system, however, it is OTS. BUT there, none-the-less.

      Getting interesting already. 😀

      1. Enjoy the day Vicki and to everyone else here. I had thought I saw an article this week that this thanksgiving was to be one of the coldest so far. I know it’s not winter yet but these early cold shots have me doubting a warm winter in which most professional mets/ outlets seem to be forecasting. The above stat on cold thankgiving should have said coldest in some time not the coldest. Heading off to Cambridge.

  128. 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀

    From the NWS this morning. he he he

    * PERHAPS A BIT OF RAIN OR SNOW MON NIGHT/TUE

    Emphasis on BIT 😀 😀

    1. On the other hand, here’s what the Upton NY office says:

      CONTINUE WITH CHANCE POPS ON TUESDAY WITH
      PRECIPITATION CHANGING TO ALL RAIN BY AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW EXITS WELL E-NE OF CAPE COD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THIS SYSTEM…ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR ZONES – BUT TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY TO SPECIFY AMOUNTS…EVEN BROADLY…AT THIS TIME.

      They’re looking at the same data, so what GIVES!)(@#&()!@&#*(!&@#*(&!

  129. we all know what happened the last time when models were saying wintry weather. It turned into the storm we just had. I am not counting on anything until two days before. Just do not trust the models right now.

    1. I hear ya Matt. On the other hand, I find it very entertaining to watch
      these model runs to see how it all develops.

      In this particular case, I do not believe an inside runner is in play.
      Either we get it or it is OTS OR it just never materializes at all.

      Time will tell. 😀

      1. oh i find it very interesting its just that i just do not want to get my hopes up if you know what i mean 🙂

  135. This is the third watcher we have had. The first was a fish storm and the second was an inside runner. It will be interesting to see what happens to the third watcher we have.

  136. Maybe the third one will be the charm and we could get some accumulating snow. I am not excited about this POTENTIAL yet. Of note the NAO does dip in the negative territory just a bit in the timeframe of this storm threat.

    1. JJ, the 12Z Canadian has SHOT it OTS. 😀
      12ZX GFS does NOT have it.
      12Z FIM does NOT have it.
      12Z Euro cranking now. Has it off of NC at 120 Hours with 500MB
      chart destine to carry it to the benchmark or East of there. 😀
      12Z UKMET still has it.

    2. Would it possible to include your thoughts on a “possible” Tuesday event, which
      to me is NOT looking so good at the moment. Many thanks

      1. Dinnertime is early afternoon. We were ready before 2PM today. Usually it’s about 2. 🙂

        And yes. I am writing now. 🙂

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