Cold & Dry, Then A Few Flakes Fly

113 Comments

6:41PM

A very weak disturbance will cross southern New England in the early hours of Friday bringing some cloudiness and a slight risk of very light snow showers, otherwise cold and dry weather will rule through Saturday as high pressure builds over the region. Saturday morning will be the coldest morning of the season so far as high pressure crests overhead in the early morning hours. As this high slips to the east and winds turn onshore, clouds and some moisture will move into the region for Sunday, the first day of December. Some light snow/rain is expected but this will not be a significant weather event. Clouds will continue to dominate early next week and we’ll be watching the development of a low pressure area offshore. The low may be close enough to toss some precipitation into the region, which could be rain or snow. At this time, the leaning is that the bulk of the system will remain offshore. Chilly and dry weather is expected for the middle of next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Clouds increase. Lows 15-25, coldest inland valleys, least cold immediate coast and urban centers. Wind W diminishing to under 10 MPH.

FRIDAY: Clouds and isolated light snow showers early, then mostly sunny. Highs 30-35. Wind NW 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear. Lows around 10 inland valleys to around 20 immediate coast and urban centers. Wind light variable.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 30. Wind light N to NE.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds. Chance of light snow overnight. Lows in the 20s. Wind light E.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow in the morning, light mix/rain afternoon. Highs around 40. Wind light E to SE.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Low 30. High 40.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of snow or rain. Low 30. High 40.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 35.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.

113 thoughts on “Cold & Dry, Then A Few Flakes Fly”

  1. Thank you TK. An updated blog on thanksgiving is above and beyond. Makes me think of how thankful I am to have been invited here and for all of my weather friends here !

    1. You’re welcome Vicki. It’s no biggie for me. I’m sitting in my den watching high school football highlights. We’re between the afternoon dinner/family time and the time when we all re-gather for evening dessert. That will be taking place after 7PM. 🙂 I’m always looking at the weather, and I like a freshly updated blog. 🙂

  2. Thanks TK. Agree with Vicki, updated blog on Thanksgiving is above and beyond. Hope you are having a great day with your family.

  3. Thanks TK as always. As far as this blog is concerned, I am thankful that you and your team of geeks have kept any trolls from posting their “comments” here. I really can’t recall a single (WBZ) troll posting since I came on here.

    Pass on my sincere thanks to your geeks! Happy Thanksgiving to all! 😀

  8. 34 was the daytime high today. Coldest thanksgiving since 2002 where that was 30. Pete sees nothing with the next two systems with marginal temps. Perhaps plowable northern western parts maybe. Very cold night on tap for tonight.

    1. It’s way too early for them to determine / talk about whether or not we will see accumulating snow from these systems, especially the second one.

  11. Saturday night noa has for my area after midnight rain/ snow showers less than tenth of an inch possible by 11am Sunday.

  12. I’m banking on a weak El Niño setting up shop that is why I’m going high again for above average in the snow dept. I am not buying into the fact that this winter will be entirely warm. Im looking for winter to start off fast where it left off in march and I’m going with at least 3 snow events before Christmas and staying cold. I believe the warmth that most seem to be forecasting will take place with a warm January thaw. Going with a snowy February and march, the first couple weeks in march and also cold. So to sum it up colder than average winter, accumulating snow for December, January and first half of march and a warmup for the month of January. I’m guessing for the December snow two of the three events come before its officially winter with the third coming right before Xmas or right after. Weak El Niño winters typically produce above average snowfall.

  13. Although most of you know I have had talks through email with Judah Cohen who has a very good record with predicting winter forcasts. Although above average this October with Syberia snowcover in which case would mean cold and snowy here with also right teleconections he is Judah predicting a warm winter here in the northeast. He actually told me he is more of an expert in the tempature dept than the snow dept but he is not seeing any big ones this winter. We shall see.

    1. Judah is struggling with the AO and admits his forecast can easily bust this year (paraphrasing, not a direct quote).

      I’m actually leaning toward him missing the AO forecast and us staying cold/dry for a while (after a brief interlude of less-cold) then flip flopping after that.

  15. Not having the wind helps out. It was upper 20s when I left for work but again having the wind absent is huge.

  16. Again looking at some forcasts this morning and all looks the same . Temps on both Sunday and Tuesday events look to be about 40 so boston along the coast looking like snow/ showers changing fat to all rain. Looking forward to the input here.

    1. I agree. Around these parts will be two warm for any snow to stick. After a cold start Saturday am it will not be that bad going into Saturday night.

      1. Too cold to head to Humarock this year though :(. We are hoping to join in the holliston Christmas festivities though.

        You working today, John? I’m enjoying reading your views. You have been doing lots of homework.

        1. Yes Vicki I am. I’m taking off after Xmas to hang with my wife and son. I work the day after Xmas only than off for ten days, so no big deal today. Vicki that was nice of you to say as I believe I have done my homework. Of course my view could be way off than what could happen. I reviewed many, many forcasts all fall and they all call for above in the tempature dept. with the exception on what I think will be a warm January after the cold of November and December will go right back to cold throughout march. Look at the history on October snow for Syberia and also weak El Niño winter, it speaks volumes. Again with the information I reviewed and some guess work as well it’s hard for me to ignore. When Judah emailed me he said with the above October snow in Syberia believe it or not he was going warm in the northeast. I just don’t see it that way. Vicki thanks again for the kind words. Take care.

  19. For your viewing interest.

    Spinning Ice Disk
    http://www.cnn.com/video/?/video/us/2013/11/28/newday-spinning-ice-disk-in-river.cnn&hpt=hp_c3&from_homepage=yes&video_referrer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F#/video/us/2013/11/28/newday-spinning-ice-disk-in-river.cnn

    Fire Tornado
    http://www.cnn.com/video/?/video/us/2013/11/28/newday-spinning-ice-disk-in-river.cnn&hpt=hp_c3&from_homepage=yes&video_referrer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F#/video/world/2012/09/19/australia-fire-tornado.hln

    Snow Rollers
    http://www.cnn.com/video/?/video/us/2013/11/28/newday-spinning-ice-disk-in-river.cnn&hpt=hp_c3&from_homepage=yes&video_referrer=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnn.com%2F#/video/us/2013/01/22/dnt-vt-snow-rollers-wcax.wcax

    Happy Day After.

  20. Oh, I ATE TOO MUCH……….. waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay too much!!!!!!!
    Bad bad me!!!

    re: Weather
    What happened? A POOFORAMA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    The remainder of this weekend:
    Anything that does fall will be light, so who cares.

    re: Tuesday event
    WHAT event! NOTHING there. Well all signs point to whatever there was
    is going OTS.

    re: Thursday
    Looks like a sizeable Lakes Cutter heading into Ontario and dumping a shot
    of liquid precip in our area.

    After that?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

    2. Yes oldsalty sure looking that way for both events as no snow will be falling with 40 degree tempatures. Sounds like turkey day was good.

  22. NWS from Upton for Monday night Tuesday
    THE 00Z MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF
    THE SE COAST MON PASSING WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH
    TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ECMWF DOES PRODUCE SOME LIGHT PCPN MON
    NIGHT/TUE MORNING. SHOULD THIS TREND CONTINUE IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS
    WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO REMOVE PCPN ALL TOGETHER.

  24. BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
    (44013) 42.346N 70.651W
    Water Temperature: 47.5 °F (8.6 °C)

    Buoy A0102 – Mass. Bay/Stellwagen
    (44029) 42.52N 70.57W
    Water Temperature: 47.8 °F (8.8 °C)

    Water temps are slowly coasting downward. 😀

  25. A second below freezing streak going at Logan. Will today break 32F ??

    Though the month wont be well below normal, this has to be one of the coldest 2 week stretches in November in my lifetime.

  27. sundays system really weak, little precipitatin mainly just clouds, tuesdays event looking like the same.

    well putting up outdoor decorations going to be different than last year.
    When we first moved here almost no one was decorating, since we got here almost everyone has some kind of decoration up. Street was so dar once you got past my house now the entire street has houses lit up. someone has even beaten us this year and already has their decorations up..

    1. Not so fast young grasshopper. 12Z GFS is a lot closer and juicier for tuesday’s system. Although snowfall accumulations confined to areas N and W, not counting anything out yet.

      1. As I always say when there is low pressure on the east coast it needs to be watched. Any shift in track will make a
        difference when it comes to precipitation.

  28. Its the GFS and I just relied on it too much leading into the past storm …….

    But the 12z GFS thats currently running has an interesting take on a storm about 5-6 days from now.

      1. Still too warm though for measurable snow in the Boston area. Worcester and central MA get almost a foot from that run

        1. I wouldn’t bet on that at this point.
          Anything could happen. 12Z GFS snow map shows
          about 3 or 4 inches for Boston, so I presume there would be much mixing or plain rain for awhile and the accumulation would come when the wind shifts more to the North. BUT that could change.

          I really want to see the other 12Z runs.

          I’m guessing this is a phantom GFS system. 😀 😀 😀

      2. would want to see more weather models saying that and also it going for several model runs with little or no change. until i change my mind. 🙂

  29. Keep an eye on timing and placement for the offshore system. IF we should get a plume of moisture with moderate precip. at night (Tuesday night / Wednesday morning) then we may see accumulation of snow.

  30. I think the Euro 12z is out. I am beginning to look at both models as saying something perhaps a little stronger/snowier than I initially thought might happen come Wednesday. Obviously pretty early to come to a conclusion. I was having trouble in identifying the 540 line on the particular web page I was looking at.

    1. I really don’t think that today’s 12Z Euro is out on any website.
      The earliest I usually see it is at http://www.instantweathermaps.com/
      and it is not available there yet. Not usually until around 1:30 PM or so.

      I suspect you were looking at a 0Z run.

      Can you post a link to the site?

      Many thanks

    2. The site i was looking at showed the 540 line just to the north and west of a line from hartford to pvd to boston for the entire event

      1. For the most part, the GFS depicts a COLD solution.
        During the Juiciest part of the storm it is cold aloft and the
        540 line is “Just” South and East of Boston.

        Aside from the WARM ocean it would be mainly a snow event.
        However, the ocean is going to play a part, assuming it materializes. 😀

    3. Longshot, post a link and we’ll see if we can identify the 540 line for you.

      Also, the 540 line is a good place to start in determining the rain/snow line
      as is the 850MB 0C line, but it is trickier than just that. It all depends. 😀

  32. I really hope this isnt a GFS phantom storm and it becomes the trend. It would be nice to see some early season snow. Early dec tends to be an active period.

      1. Yes, however, IF you look carefully, the DATE changes to 11/28
        and NOT today’s date of 11/29. 😀 SO it is yesterday’s 12Z run.

        1. Also, those 500MB numbers on the “Classic” chart are HEIGHTS and not 1000-500MB thickness. When we speak of the 540 line it is from a THICKNESS chart and not a height chart.
          😀 😀

  34. Looking at that model run eastern parts of SNE will get the most precipitation from that POTENTIAL system.
    AceMaster you were mentioning early December tends to be active I remember ten years ago this December parts of the North Shore got close to three feet of snow from a Noreaster. I believe for Boston it was one of the bigger snowfalls for a December storm.

  35. Wrisk.com says ignore the 12Z op GFS. We shall see if he changes his tune if the 12Z euro also GOES BACK to showing this storm 😉

    1. DT confirms my suspicions:

      Wxrisk.com
      ** WEATHER GEEK POST *** ( post amde / aimed for those who watch and follow Models)

      ABOUT 12Z GFS… I am uploading the new video NOW… but about the 12z operational GFS

      IGNORE IT

      for you weather geeks out there compare the 500 MB pattern to the GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN from 6Z OR 0Z to THIS run … look at the 0Z EURO ENSEMBLE at 240.. or the Canadian.

      LOOK at the massive goofy idiotic changes the 12z FRI GFS has over the Pacific which is total 180 degree chnage from 6z hrs ago

      or any of the other models and the how the pattern evolves over time over the Pacific. Thisis bad GFS run and I am cerrtain the GEFS will be different

  37. Ace, I agree with you. i strongly suspect that both the Euro and Canadian
    either do NOT have this system or have it well OTS. We shall see. 😀 😀

  42. I’m not taking the bait. It is going to get a little bit warmer, ocean tempature is still warm and wind direction will all be key factors.

  43. The NAO does dip into the negative territory just a bit during the timeframe of that POTENTIAL storm which is one ingredient you would like to see for storm development on the east coast. It going to come down to track as it always does.

  44. Channel 7 picked up on the possibility for Tues/Weds but stayed far away from hype and prediction. Just mentioned it depended on how close in it comes.

    2. They were not talking about it just rain or snow showers maybe snow north and west. Your going to drive yourselfs nuts waiting for each new run.

      1. Now on that I’d disagree. Seeing how storms and info evolve are what I find interesting. I check every single link posted here by OS and others. The more the merrier. I also listen to various mets to get their views. Its also an important part of learning. And although I’ve been called nuts, I don’t think for the most part I am 🙂

    1. 500mb Winds are Turning. Will it be enough? Can’t see 200 and/or 300MB.
      Just can’t tell. Here’s guessing it makes a pass well East of bench mark. 😀

    1. Thanks Matt,

      Looked really interesting, but it brought my computer to a crawl and I couldn’t
      watch the video. 😀

  53. re: tuesday event
    Something might just be up yet….

    18Z NAM is in. At 84 hours has a low off of SC/NC.
    500mb winds and 300 mb winds look good, however, 200 MB winds
    look to push the whole thing more to the East, probably taking surface
    low well East of benchmark.

    BUT it is there and needs to be watched. 😀

  55. Anything is possible after what I saw with that storm in March being offshore by 600 miles and delivering a good dumping of snow to SNE with the eastern sections getting the most. It was the most bizzare storm I could ever remember.

  57. Winter Predictions:
    Snowfall. 39.5
    temperatures. There will be times of above and times for below normal . They even out to near normal.
    many storm doing Lake cutters or traveling across new york. or well to the south and east. a few nor easters. alot of clipper systems.

  58. Last year’s ddecorations.
    minni Multicolor on pine push
    minni multicolor on bush infront of picture window.
    red on all other bushes.
    big multi color bulbs on big pine tree in the front.
    big white light bulbs trimming the house and porch. snow flakes on small tree in front.
    red blinking bells around front door. 21 years old set( tradition.)
    nothing on fence

    This years
    All bushes in minni blue lights.
    artificial greens with white lights around windows.
    artificial greens with white lights along fence
    small white lights along trim of house with artificial greens.
    blinking snow flakes along the roof of the porch.
    big multicolor lights on big pine tree.
    2 white deer under big pine tree.

      1. will be up soon or a later,need to down load them down to my computer. also not everything is done yet. last things will be put up tomorrow morning before my mom comes home from shoping with my grandmother.. Tradition is that she does not know what it will look like until the night of the day she gets back.

Comments are closed.