Cold Ease

273 Comments

2:38AM

It has been a cold Thanksgiving week, aside from the one warm rainstorm Wednesday, but as we close out November with one more chilly but dry day today, we’ll be looking at a somewhat more unsettled and milder pattern for the first several days of December, absent of major storms. As high pressure to the north of the region slips to the east, a light ocean wind will develop later today and continue through Monday, causing clouds to increase and a period of snow showers early Sunday changing to rain showers later Sunday. We will have to watch for storm development offshore early in the week, though most indications are that this system will keep most of its action well offshore and anything that does occur will be taking place in conditions mild enough for mix at worst, and probably some light rain. Despite our significant rain event last week, we still remain in an overall drier than normal pattern. After the minor threat for Tuesday and early Wednesday, we look to late in the week (Friday-Saturday) for the next threat, which will probably be rain showers with milder air ahead of a cold front trailing from a storm system cutting through the Great Lakes.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Sunny start … low clouds increase from east, higher clouds increase from W … with a mostly cloudy end. Highs 30-35. Wind N under 10 MPH shifting to E.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow overnight. Lows around 30. Wind light E.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light snow morning. Slight chance of light rain afternoon. Highs around 40. Wind light SE.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain/snow at night. Low 30. High 40.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light mix/rain. Low 33. High 42.

WEDNESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 26. High 38.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 40.

FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. PM rain showers. Low 30. High 50.

273 thoughts on “Cold Ease”

  2. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What type of cloud is highest in the atmosphere?
    A. Cirrus
    B. Stratus
    C. Altostratus
    D. Cumulus

    Answer later today.

  3. Thanks for the update TK.

    Too much model divergence for Tuesday’s so-called event.
    From Nothing to a moderate hit at best and that would be primarily rain.

    Still waiting on 12Z NAM to see if it show much.

    Euro is a slight graze. GFS gives more, but rain. CMC is NOTHING. Nam is the mystery child. 😀 😀

      1. One day 850MB temp=7.5 and the next day 850MB temp=10C.
        That could potentially yield 53 and 57 respectively. 😀

        After that it looks like the Arctic Train is fully loaded. 😀

  8. Ocean effect snow flurries/showers around. Missed the intial wave, but see a tiny bit on the car tops. More out in Cape Cod Bay, see if anything happens a bit later.

    Logan at 21F, some below zero up north.

        1. I hope so Tom. I am waiting for him. Well off to get the tree. Was planning on next weekend but my inpatient 9yr old begged me to put up this weekend.

  10. Atlantic season – Least active hurricane season since 1982. First year without a major hurricane since 1992. Only two of the thirteen storms became hurricanes this year.

      1. Great. She was here Thursday. She was fine in the car and had a pretty big dinner, relative to what she has eaten since she has been sick. She said she has felt the best she has been this week, since all of this started. Thanks for asking!

        How was your day?

        1. Hey GREAT news, North. That made for a special day for all of you. Ours was great, thanks. It spanned thurs and fri to get everyone together. Now I’ve switched to Christmas mode 🙂

    1. Absolutely.

      Why is GFS so WARM.

      NAM and UKMET much colder. as is the EURO.
      Not that either of those are super cold, but each has our area
      below freezing at 850MB at least.

      Will there be a SUPRISE with this system.

      The Euro has been pretty consistent with system just a bit too far off shore,
      throwing some precip in, but not a direct hit. On the otherhand, the UKMET has been all over this system and has NOT backed off a bit.

      NAM still looks interesting. Need to see next run.

      So here we sit a few days off and STILL we haven’t a clue what is going
      to happen. 😀 😀 😀

    2. This is from the NWS, sure hints at Norlun to me:

      EVEN IF THE SYSTEM ENDS UP FURTHER EAST THE UPPER
      LEVEL TROUGH MAY PULL SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION BACK WEST FOR AT LEAST A TIME.

  15. 18Z NAM has sped up and is virtually OTS. A little bit of precip.
    GFS now pretty much the same, but with a little more precip, but
    no great shakes.

    Mostly off shore and not much to write home about. 😀

  16. We are into Dec now and I still see no snow yet for the foreseeable future, well other than a nuisance flurry or snowshower, but u know what I mean, a matter of fact, temps rise by the end of this upcoming week and could be close to 50 degrees Friday 🙂

    1. Winter starts tomorrow and ends Feb 28th, March is the time the phone begins ringing, sometimes late Feb if its mild, a lot of liming in March, but Late March is the 1st Fertilization, I guess meteorological winter is my winter, I’ve just finished everybody’s lawns, before u know it, I’ll be back out there in just 12 weeks, 489 prepay mail outs to do now, ugh!!! Good night

      1. I believe winter starts Charlie on December 21. I think you will be surprised how this winter turns out. I believe I nailed it last year so listen up. Have a nice night.

    1. I like winter in Dec and even Jan, but once Feb comes I become to dislike snow and especially cold, I don’t really like the cold (below 30 degrees) much in general, but being a New Englander I deal with it. I dislike over 80 degrees almost as much as below 30 degrees lol, anyways I wish it would snow the next 8 weeks cause after that I’m rooting against it. Take it easy hadi

  19. Question, I have a rose bush in my yard that was given to me by my mom. I am
    Moving next week and would like to transplant it in my yard. Is the ground to frozen to actually dig around it, is there something I can do to thaw out the ground?

    1. Coastal if your interested give me till early next week and ill ask the guy I work with. He is college educated in this field.

    2. coastal you can dig it out of the current location, not ideal though. How ever you would have to wait till late march to plant it into your new yard. once you dig it out though you need to get it into a room around 50 to 65 degrees, says my grandfather

  22. Answer to today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What type of cloud is highest in the atmosphere?
    A. Cirrus
    B. Stratus
    C. Altostratus
    D. Cumulus

    The correct answer is A. Everyone was correct.

  25. The WBZ Winter Preview Special was joined in progress with 10 minutes left. Sadly, the actual “winter preview” was missed thanks to SEC Football postgame although I suspect we all know what type of winter we will be having. 🙁

  26. I am thinking they predicted below normal snowfall UGH! As long as we get a couple good Noreaster’s I will be happy. I hope we don’t get skunked as was the case in 01-02, 06-07, and 11-12.

  27. Went to Somerville today for the ugly sweater 5K, it was the most unorganized event I’ve ever seen, 3 runners almost got run over bc a cop was talking and not paying attention, people starting yelling hey do your job, the cops were embarrassed it seemed, anyways, it was cold but in the sun was better, 🙂

  29. I’m not a big fan of Barry but were in the same camp mostly with the exception being I think it’s going to be over 50inches. So glad he mentioned the Syberia snow because most are not and I think it’s a very good indicator with other key components of what’s to come. I’m real curious to see the ocean tempature by the end of the month. I’m also wondering with the hurricane season we just had or in better words lack of, where the heck is all the energy? Is it bottled up waiting to explode, time will tell.

  30. Today’s AccuWeather Trivia Quiz.

    What is nepheloccygia?
    A. Fear of clouds
    B. Finding objects within shapes in clouds
    C. A word to describe all clouds
    D. A large cloud that heralds rain or snow

    Answer later today. I got this one wrong.

  31. GFS now mostly out to see and doesn’t give us more than a tenth of an inch of rain Tuesday. Later next week looks interesting as a cold front is coming through and waves of low pressure along it. This looks to keep going for several days. Southern jet looks to become more active too after that. They will probably end up fish storms though or go poof :).

  33. Some bad black ice in areas, careful out there! Saw several accidents in Andover and a number of cars pulled over.
    TJ

  34. The freezing rain advisory is now up until 11AM for parts of SNE. I heard a report on my local news here in CT and maybe someone could confirm this that part of I 290 has been shut in the Worcester area due to multi vechicle accident.
    It doesn’t take much to cause slippery conditions and that is what were seeing here across parts of SNE.

  35. Seeing some sanders out now. Thought I had a tire problem, got out to check and couldn’t stand up. Was on my way to hockey in Salem nh, my wife left 45 minutes earlier and it was fine.

    3. I agree this is the shorter-term (week to 10 day) pattern. As stated in the article, uncertainty appears in mixed signals beyond this time frame. In the past, when I have seen this situation, we have often snapped back to the pattern just before the current one, which would put us back in a chilly/dry pattern much like the one we were in much of November.

      1. thanks TK. After the next brief warm up, it sure looks to be quite
        chilly for an extended period. Now IF we can only get some moisture into it. 😀 😀

    1. Not that is necessarily correct. 😀 😀

      CMC looks interesting down the road after the next batch of Arctic air is in here.

      1. OS thanks. I downloaded the iPhone free app for this link. The full version is 4.99. Small change really but wanted to see if you think it’s worth it. Tx

  39. Multiple accidents and roads closed in Framingham. Just got a reverse 911 asking everyone to stay home until sanders could get ice under control. Not sure why it got ahead of them. They were sanding/salting in Uxbridge at 7:50. We were headed to Russos in Watertown but postponed

    1. Yeah I have friends that live up there, not in Maine but in nh, in Bethlehem, and they said they got there 1st snow up there the 1st week of Nov and they said it snows till April up there, good luck with that 🙂 ill take a rainy day around 50 degrees 🙂

  43. OS… Replied to your link above! 🙂

    Warmed up aloft enough that my snow forecast did not verify. Was icy/dicey earlier inland, but that is easing now, thankfully. A little more precipitation than I anticipated. Always a tough call when you have a precip. event from a “non-system” .. No real discernable low pressure area or storm, just moisture on the underside of a retreating high pressure area and a very weak inverted trough forming in the area.

    The GFS having no snow on a current run and several snow chances on a recent run means one thing: It’s back to its inconsistent tricks. The Euro is again the way to go.

    1. Yeah I have friends that live up there, not in Maine but in nh, in Bethlehem, and they said they got there 1st snow up there the 1st week of Nov and they said it snows till April up there, good luck with that ill take a rainy day around 50 degrees

  47. Just in, Ridley INACTIVE for today’s Game! GOOD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    From WEEI: Inactive analysis: Stevan Ridley will sit against the Texans

    The biggest surprise on this list is Ridley, a feature back who has struggled with ball security over the last season. In his place, expect the Patriots to lean on fellow backs LeGarrette Blount, Brandon Bolden and Shane Vereen.

  50. Patriots should win by a comfortable margin today. This Houston team is a horrible football team at 2-9.

      1. Agree Charlie. Too often when we think a team will win easily, the opposite happens. Remember their record was completely opposite last year. Go pats!!!!

    2. Celts should have won last night too playing a 2-13 team and they lost. One of Milwaukee’s two wins they already had was against us.

  51. That’s why I used the word should realizing its the NFL and anything could happen. I could sit back and relax today since my team already has played and won. Now I am rooting for Arizona to beat Philadelphia so the Cowboys are in first place by themselves.

  52. Pats need to fix these slow starts. Im still holding out hope the tuesday system surprises us. The 12z euro looks like it gets it a little more organized. Still offshore but any slight shift could easily get some accumulating snow in here

      1. Nice! I miss the santa parade. I used to march in it between being in the Hockomock YMCA Indian guides and the marching band in high school. I remember some parades with all kinds of weather, from snow and extreme cold to warm and rainy

  56. The Pats got the win, but they need to do lots and lots to improve their defense. they are sad on D and they are also getting off tovery slow starts in last two games. Very, very slow.

  57. Thankful for a Pat’s WIN today.

    However, Can you say Swiss Cheese? Because that’s what the Patriot’s defense is. True, they have been decimated with injuries, but that is what they have and it needs to improve, else they’ll be and One and Done in the playoffs. 😀 😀 😀

  58. The pats adapt. A lot of fans forget that and didnt think they’d have the record they currently have with the injuries and high number of rookies. Its tough to watch but not difficult to admire. I heard someone say the only constants the patriots have are Bill Belickick, Tom Brady and change. Prob a lot of people said that…….its true.

  59. I missed the entire game except when the pats hit the field goal to win it. Waited all week because I can’t stay up late for the night games. But my son is happy because because we did the outside decorations and its all done. 9 air blowns all secured, 4 wreaths in front upper windows with bows and 4. Candle lights for the upper windows. All railings on farmers porch have colered lights. And than whopping 6′ foot tree inside In between the 3 windows. I won’t get into the inside with you as it’s way to much. We do have though a train that goes around the tree. He is excited.

    1. Sounds like tons of fun. I can picture your son too. Its special having him to help. We have all indoor done. I have two villages and the second one – North Pole – was last to be put up. Finished this morning since we couldn’t go out. outside as I said isn’t lighting so we need to wait until it dries outside to figure out the problem. We got our tree but won’t put it up till next weekend. I like to enjoy decorations and then add the tree to it.

    3. Missed the game? I haven’t missed a game since 1995, I’m dead serious about that too, and every playoff game is recorded.

      1. People have lives that interfer. I love my skins more than anything but if family event is going on then the games must be missed.

        1. For certain things, sure, but decorating? My kid wouldn’t allow me to, bc he would rather watch the game than decorate, and this is no offense intended to John, different strokes for different folks, but football is a big deal in the family, we love it, we’re going to the Cleveland game this week 🙂

  60. can i say that was an embarasing win? That game should not of been that close. Our run defense needs to greatly improve. I am feeling strange saying that since our defense been in the top 10 for a few years on run defense. Would have been a killer DEFense if we did not have all the injures.

  61. All teams deal with injuries. It’s no excuse bc your back ups should be ready and hungry to play. But I will say that the Pats have had their share of bad ones.

    1. No question. As has Houston. I don’t think any team plays full power when it has excessive injuries…..especially in one area….mayo, wilfork and Kelly ……and that’s just the start. We are doing ok

      1. i kind of feel bad for the texans. 7 of those losses that they had , they loss within a touchdown. That team really is not the team that their record shows.

  62. Good teams find a way to win, and bad teams find a way to lose, a Patriots win and a dolphins loss gives the Patriots there 11th division championship outa the last 13yrs, and if I’m not mistaken, it’s the Patriots 15th Division Championship outa the last 20yrs, and in the 20yrs of Kraft owning the Patriots, the Patriots have also made the playoffs 15 times.

    1. I can see clearly now why Keith had enough of you, you just go on and on. I waited all week for this game but my son needed me. If your life is all about the patriots than that’s sad. By the way there’s always another game. I have one child and only get one shot at all these things. A few more years and he won’t want to be decorating. And Charlie just to let you know again I am a huge pats fan, just some times other things are more important. I think you should join a sports blog rather than spilling all your crap here.

      1. Agree John about the kids. In 10 years my sons probably will be like leave us alone dad so I would not give up a minute of being with them now when all want is to be me.

      2. I spend time with my kids other ways, I have Briggs nursery decorate my house as its the family, so decorating the house has never been a thing we do, we do a 14ft Christmas tree in the house, also I tell my kids I don’t understand why the redskins/giants game didn’t get flexed out, my kids still want to watch the game, very similar to when I was a kid getting brought up, my kids love sports especially football, and r happy and r honor students, all a parent can ask 🙂 Go Patriots!! It’s cooling down to 36.4 in the last hr

      4. i think everyone on here just need to calm down, I think charlie was not meaning anything but stating the position that the patriots were in this year, Hadi i know you “hate the patriots but stop bashing them and the coaching staff. its starting to piss me off. Patriots are the team that i cheer for how would you like me to bash your head coach about not giving cousins a chance to win games and how bad your team is? just stop it. charlie was doing nothing to day to be bashed. patriots have gone through alot this year. yours is experiancing difficulties in all spots.

          1. I know hadi. That kids got some nerve. I guess he does not understand the entire story on you know who. I wouldn’t loose sleep over it.

          2. we had not bashed your team so don’t bash ours all im saying. The over all bashing on this blog is starting to get to me as well. we all need to get a long.

    1. I’m thinking the best shot at maybe seeing something other than rain may come a week from Monday. I think it starts getting cold again next Sunday. This week I think will be running in the 40s.

  67. I was just checking wundermap looks interesting for next week. I’m hoping for some snow. A couple of inches of snow would be good to get everyone in the holiday spirit. I was looking forward to seeing some snow this tuesday but looks like its all OTS…

  68. I’m sorry, but they should have flexed this game tonight out, I know they were talking last week about it, crazy , I’m gonna go see the movie gravity

  69. Hadi,

    People on here are not only passionate about the weather but sports as well. My take is if the Pats win or lose they still get paid so they never really loose and its the fans that get pretty worked up over something they can’t control so sit back relax and enjoy the games.

      1. I’m curious to see the ratings, I don’t think they will be great nationally comparibley speaking to other Snf games

    2. Agree and agree again. It is a game and the best a fan can do is support his team win or lose and always remember it is a game…..oops did I say that already :).

      Now snow or storms……far more serious stuff. Dec 9 has a history of big storms. Maybe we can work on one for next week??

    1. Just keep it away from the 7th as that is our company Christmas party and I could use a night out!!! It can snow all it wants on the 9th. 🙂

    2. Cause its my anniversary Hadi. We had a great one complete with thunder snow on our wedding night. Mother Nature knows how much I think of her 🙂

  74. Thanks TK! Sorry I haven’t been on here in a few days! Writing a paper now, and wanted to pop on here. Great post 🙂

    Decorating the Christmas tree here on Tuesday night. 🙂 I know you have been decorating your house for many hours, TK 🙂 I hope you’re getting as much done as you have hoped 🙂

    I am enjoying the rain showers tonight. Love listening.

    Happy December 1st everyone!!!

    How early do you all start Christmas-ing?

  75. This weekend is the earliest sunsets of the year at 4:12pm, by Christmas Day the sun will be setting at 4:20, and by New Years its after 4:30pm

  77. Speaking of thunder snow boy I would love a storm like that one on Dec 9, 2005. Still the most incredible I have ever seen. I think 6 inches in half hour.

  79. I also remember that December 9, 2005 event. The storm went through bombogensis and there were hurricane force wind gusts on the Cape and snowfall coming down at an incredible rate in eastern parts of SNE. The sun was out where I am in CT at the time it was going on and I remember watching the live feed on the BZ website and said wow look at the way that snow is coming down.

    1. Yes, that was awesome. Our building was rocking from the Thunder!!
      Left the office around 2PM and arrived home after 4 PM. A grand total
      of about 3.5 miles!!!! The sun was coming out by the time I arrived home. 😀

  80. re: Upcoming Weather
    I know things can and usually do change, but I do NOT like the set up
    for the next 10+ days. Sure, it’s going to get COLD, but it’s that old drill of
    Arctic blast followed by Lakes Cutter warm up followed by another arctic blast
    followed by another Lakes Cutter. I can’t STAND that kind of pattern. Stay cold
    or stay warm, none of this back and forth Baloney with any precipitation occurring
    during the warm ups!!!!!

    DISGUSTING Winter weather. DISGUSTING!!!!!!!

    I rant. I came into the office forgetting it is our annual meeting. I actually have to
    leave here and go to another site to attend this meeting. Mumbles will be there.
    And I didn’t dress for it either. I suppose it is better to attend without a Jacket and tie
    than not attend at all. 😀 😀 😀

    1. From the Taunton Office of the NWS this morning:

      STRONG LOW PASSAGE INTO ERN CANADA THURSDAY/FRIDAY WILL ALLOW FOR A TRAILING FRONT TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS FRONT WILL CAUSE A FULL BLOWN ARCTIC OUTBREAK ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER 48 AND WILL ALSO PROVIDE A WELL DEFINED FOCUS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND FOR MOISTURE AND AN AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE
      THIS FRONT WILL SET-UP. APPEARS ANOTHER DIGGING SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MOVE UP INTO THE NORTHEAST BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

      That sound OMINOUS. 😀

      REALLY????????? I’ll believe it when I see it.
      System moving up into the Great Lakes I’d buy. 😀 😀 😀 😀

  81. Its the same old song and dance with this pattern for a while now. We get a blast of chilly air only to warm up briefly with wet system and not a white system to go back to the chill. If your a snowlover like I am this pattern stinks.
    I did see on our local Fox station here in CT when they ran the clock showing the whole nation up until early next Wednesday morning and it did show a few inches of snow in SNE. I am not buying it.

    1. JJ – you are very correct and it’s been happening for too many winters. My take on this winter is that, although we may have potential, it will be a question of how we keep the cold air intact long enough for a system to produce snow.

      1. You need the cold and you need the low pressure system to track to the benchmark to get a good accumulating snow.
        Anything to the west of us as we know will produce a rain situation.
        The Almanac MAY get the cold part right but the snow filled part I think there going to be wrong on. I define snow
        filled as snowfall amounts for the season above the average by quite a bit.

  82. Today is the soft deadline (give or take a couple of days) for getting snow totals in.

    I think I missed someone over the weekend……sorry but can’t remember what thread it was on and may have imagined it. I’ll go looking if no one says he/she is missing.

    Below are totals I have

    John 80.0
    Hadi 68.8
    Cat966g 65.0
    shotime 58.0
    Tjammer 57.7
    Shreedhar 52.0
    Scott77 51.0
    Vicki 43.3
    kane 41.6
    TK 38.8
    Haterain 38.0
    Charlie 35.4
    rainshine 35.0
    Joshua 32.0
    Philip 31.7
    Old Salty 28.5
    Sue 24.2
    Tom 19.4
    Retrac 27.7
    JimmyJames 36.2
    WeatherWiz 32.1
    Longshot 48.0
    AceMaster 30.5

  83. It seems that folks give up to easy on here regarding some snow, I remember this being the case last winter. I believe the cold air is going to win out this winter in a big way. Warmer week this week and than it gets colder again starting on Sunday. I think the month of December will be cold, not freezen but cold and than warm up again for January. Thanks Vicki for recording all the predictions. Last chance for those who want to participate. Enjoy your cyber Monday.

  85. Remember last year when it looked like another dud of a winter and then bam February came in with the blizzard along with a few other snow events including that weird one in March with that storm system which was 600 miles out to sea yet through back enough moisture for widespread double digit snowfall totals across eastern parts of SNE. I remember everyone was saying where was the snow in the winter of 2010- 11 and then right after Christmas until the first week of February we got a lot of snow.

    1. People forget. I think though we will have measurable snow before that this year like this month. I called for three snow events this month 2 before Xmas and one right before or right after.

      1. I don’t think anyone forgot as everyone here is very aware of when we had snow – this year and decades back. It’s just what I think happened repeatedly last winter as well as the one before. Last winter one storm alone accounted for about half of our total so that’s difficult to use as a baseline. I don’t know if I kept track of how many we thought would hit us and went poof – either OTS or because of the warm air moving in. Both have entered into the pattern a lot.

        John, I wish you would define snow events before the event rather than after. To me it has to be more at least 4 inches.

        1. I dont know what to tell you vicki as this keeps coming up every year with you. A snow event is where we will see accumulating snow, how else can I described it as you can see I do not mean a flurry. I cant put a number on it. I hope that helps you out.

  87. It was Matt’s total I missed – Matt I have you for 39.5 and I recorded your extended prediction as well. John, did you give an extended prediction that I missed?? If so, can you give me idea of around what date and I’ll go look at it.

    I have extended predictions from OS, Hadi and Matt – who’d I miss??

      1. In most cases a brief description of what the person thought the winter would bring. Matts was the briefest, Joshua gave inches per month, Hadi had dec-feb overall brief thoughts and March stood alone. Hope that helps. If not, Charlie, let me know. It wasn’t anything anyone asked for or suggested, but when individuals elaborated on their snow amounts I thought it’d be fun to record it.

  88. I think this next possible snow event depends on how developed it becomes, to much development will bring in milder air from the ocean, a weaker system will ease that easterly wind, north and west of Boston have the best chance at this point IMO, it’s early, will see where we r in a couple days, but that’s my thinking, Go Patriots!!

    1. Vicki,

      I can assure you that the Boston temperature there is GARBAGE.
      It is NOT a true representation of the current ocean temperature.

      You need to take the the readings from the 2 off shore buoys, right now
      47.5 and 47.3 Degrees F respectively. Now that is a current and REAL reading of the Ocean Surface temperature out there now. NO WAY it
      is 41.

      😀 😀 😀

      1. Makes much more sense to me, OS. I was surprised to say the very least. Doesn’t NOAA know how to measure ocean temps?

        1. Vicki,

          The NOAA data is valid, even though I said GARBAGE.
          The reason for it is the buoy selected for the measurement. Taking a very close in buoy for example, would yield a lower reading, much like a shallow inlet in a lake that may have ice whereas the rest of the lake does not.

          In the link you provided, it listed a close in buoy for Boston, actually in the harbor, not subject to the open
          ocean and shallower responding to recent colder
          weather. Here is that reading:

          8443970 – Boston, MA
          (BHBM3) 42.355N 71.052W
          Last Updated: Dec 2 2013, 1:48 pm EST
          Mon, 02 Dec 2013 13:48:00 -0500
          Temperature: 40.5 °F (4.7 °C)
          Water Temperature: 41.9 °F (5.5 °C)

          So my post above still stands. One must utilize the
          correct buoys when discussing ocean temperature
          for the purposes of possible rain/snow lines. 😀 😀 😀

          BTW, Eric Fisher posts it each night on his Broadcast and he uses one or the other of the 2 off shore buoys or
          perhaps even averages them. 😀

  90. Ok, here we go again. Re: December 9th, the day all pretty much agree could be
    a chance for Wintry weather.

    Here’s the EURO with a Lakes Cutter:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013120212&region=USA&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=168

    CMC:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=180&fixhh=1&hh=168

    GFS:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=12&stn=PNMPR&hh=168&map=na&stn2=PNMPR&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=168&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    What do you think?

    3. I am trying to understand how we can get this kind of discrepancy!

      I mean it’s not a difference of 5o-100 miles between models, it’s a difference
      of 700 or 800 miles!!!!!!!! HOW????? The EURO is reading the initial conditions and predicting future conditions in a totally and completely different manner than the GFS and CMC. Given the superior algorithms within the EURO, I would have to assume that the Euro is MORE correct than the others. However, the EURO is NOT infallible either. It has been out to lunch before.

      So what do we do? We wait and see, as per usual. I’d just like to see
      a situation where all the models have more or less a similar solution, with only
      relatively minor discrepancies as would be expected. 😀 😀

      I rant again and again and again. 😀

      1. They will come together oldsalty soon. I’m telling you I can feel it cold and snowy winter on tap. Just to much on the table to ignore.

        1. John,

          It’s not the cold air that bothers me, it is the SE Ridge
          building back in eroding the cold air , allowing the storms to pass to our Wesst so rain falls, only to be replaced once again by the cold air. 😀 😀

          1. Oldsalty I know what you meant. But it’s going to go the other way soon. December will not be snowless and I don’t mean flurries.

  91. Vicki, can you put me down for 52.6? I think that we aill have a hard time getting going, but once we start with something we will be locked in for several weeks. I am favoring the mid-late winter for when we get most of this, as the current pattern does not support a lot of snow.

    1. Then what does it do?
      Looking at Wundermap, I see nothing but rain, but it was blank for 168 hours,
      but RAIN at 174 hours.

      Because of the extent of the cold air, perhaps there is snow for awhile, but
      it is destined to transition to RAIN with that run anyway. Let’s see how the
      other runs go. 😀 😀

  93. On another subject….

    I just received a new Samsung Android Smart Phone for work. I am on a data plan, so I can use it for personal use as long as I stay within the parameters of the plan.
    One of the perks I get since Management can call me at any hour.

    So, I was wondering if any of you out there with smart phones can recommend
    any FREE weather apps that I can download??

    Many thanks for the help.

    I have one loaded already that seems pretty cool. It is called RadarNow. Very nice display. I just don’t know yet how often it is refreshed.

    Many thanks all.

    1. I have RadarNow. I like RadarUS but perhaps because it’s easier for me (the one who isn’t as knowledgeable). You can get a free version of the instant maps you told me about. It is an awesome app as you just rotate the device to see the map. I of course have the wunderground app.

      1. Thanks Vicki. Trying to load the free Instant maps.

        I also downloaded Weather Underground. 😀 😀

  94. Geez models everywhere on this next storm, the back pond had grown to about 1 inch thickness, it has disappeared, no surprise though as its only Dec

  95. We’ve received about 3 inches of rain the last week, I’m eager to see how much the lake rose, it was very low for Nov a week in a half ago, but it’s amazing what 3 inches of rain can do.

    1. Hadi, those are awesome. Many thanks for posting!

      2 things:

      1. It is difficult to see the labels.
      2. It is impossible to see the scales.

      I know you went through some trouble to post.

      It would be even MORE AWESOMER if those could be addressed, if at all possible.

      Many thanks again. Very much appreciated 😀

  97. Gfs is first , cmc is 2nd and euro is third. I can’t get it any clearer for the scales. Suffice they all have accumulating snow with euro having the most.

    1. Ok, great!! Many thanks for the clarification. Much appreciated.

      I wasn’t sure if it was different models or all EURO for different time
      periods.

      I don’t understand the totals for the Euro based on the maps I see.

      1. Can you do a screen print? Save the screen print somewhere
        online and link to that.

        Here’s a site:

        Imgur.com

    1. Now I see what you all meant by having to scroll down when the blog
      hasn’t been updated recently. 😀 😀 😀

    2. So that’s about 6 inches+ for the Boston area and a bit more to the North and West. NICE! Let’s see IF it comes to be. 😀

    1. Hadi,

      Hope you are correct.
      I know we really can’t trust an 18Z GFS, but this run is clearly showing
      a more Eastward push of Arctic Air that completely pushes any moisture
      out QUICKLY.

      Now I am really interested in seeing tonights 0Z runs. I’ll also feel better
      when the NAM comes into range.

  104. HI all!

    Sorry for the lack of update in the last 24 hours.

    Working on one now.

    Been VERY busy decorating. 😀

  105. I think I forgot to give the correct answer to yesterday’s Trivia Quiz.

    What is nepheloccygia?
    A. Fear of clouds
    B. Finding objects within shapes in clouds
    C. A word to describe all clouds
    D. A large cloud that heralds rain or snow

    The correct answer is B.

  106. Update is done. Low confidence forecast.

    Mild pattern for a while. No major storms.

    Very little if any snow in sight this week.

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