Zone Of Conflict

560 Comments

7:21AM

We here in southeastern New England will find ourselves near the border of mild and cold during the next several days, and this means we’re setting up for several periods of unsettled weather. Without delving into the hype-fueled frenzy of dramatic what-if’s and gloom-and-doom scenarios, the remainder of this section of the blog entry will detail the players (weather systems) and the expected plays (resultant weather) during the next several days.

High pressure dominates with a nice day today, but it may start with patchy fog and frosty windows in some locations after a mostly clear and calm overnight allowed radiational cooling and moisture in the air to condense. The daylight hours will feature sunshine which will quickly erase any of the early fog/frost as it turns rather mild. Clouds will begin to increase later in the day ahead of a warm front, which will slog its way into southern New England by early Thursday. This front may have trouble pushing all the way through the region Thursday (watch for this in the temperature forecast), but will produce some light rain activity. A cold front will come along by Friday and send a couple batches of rain or showers into and across the region. Timing is a little uncertain, but it looks like the bulk of the rain will come in 2 batches, one in the early morning hours of Friday, the second on Friday night. As the cold front settles through the region it will hang up near or just off the coast, but allow enough cold air in so that we will see a mix with or change to snow sometime in the Friday night to early Saturday time frame as the final batch of precipitation moves through. The amount of time that snow can occur will be greater to the north and west of Boston and less to the south. The timing will also determine if any accumulation occurs. An early call is for a minor accumulation away from the coast and especially in higher elevations northwest of Boston. Either way, clouds may hang on through Saturday, because the upper level air flow will likely be from the southwest, and with the front barely offshore, that is often a setup for clouds streaming northeastward in the vicinity of the front. Eventually enough of a push of colder air from the northwest will clear things out, especially for the second half of the weekend, so expect a nice but chilly Sunday. This will be short-lived, as the next weather system will be coming along for early next week. With the colder air in place, we’ll have to watch for some potential for some snow/ice to be involved in at least part of the early-next-week storm, but it is far too early to really have any idea of details. The early feeling is that the main storm will be cutting through the Great Lakes, so even though we may have cold air around to start, we’ll likely warm up at some point during the system’s passage. But with the cold air lurking close by, it all needs to be watched. For now, generic wording will be used on the outlook for the start of next week.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Areas of fog and frost early morning (watch for a few icy patches), then sunshine, but fading late in the day behind advancing clouds. Highs 42-50, coolest in higher elevations northwest of Boston and mildest over interior southern NH and eastern MA. Wind W up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Partly to mostly cloudy. Lows around 30. Wind light variable.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. A chance of light rain, mainly morning and midday. Highs around 40 in southern NH to the lower 50s southern MA and RI. Wind light SE in areas to the north, light S to SW in areas to the south.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Periods of rain, especially in the early morning (pre-dawn) and late day. Low 40. High 50.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of mix/snow early morning. Low 30. High 40.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Ice to rain, may start as snow. Low 30. High 40.

TUESDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain/mix/snow. Low 32. High 40.

560 thoughts on “Zone Of Conflict”

  4. Hello All,

    It’s that time of year again when I say goodnight to the golf course for it’s winter season slumber and switch gears to winter weather watching. Looks like some interesting weather coming up.

    Cheers

  8. Good morning.

    Many thanks TK for an excellent update. I love the way you worded the various situations, especially Sunday Night into Monday. I must say I was a bit more “hopeful” yesterday, but this morning, I’m feeling more pessimistic. It’s really difficult to get any kind of snow in here with a LAKES CUTTER.

    One interesting note: 0Z CMC has a very CLEAR coastal redevelopment, however,
    it is a bit too close to the coast and thus it becomes too warm in our area at 850MB. BUT does it offer the least bit of “hope”. That is the question. Here is the map:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=144&fixhh=1&hh=132

  9. On Another note:

    Utilizing an Android phone last night helped pass the time while accompanying my
    wife Christmas Shopping. She needed my help for awhile, then I was free to use
    the phone. The Woods Hill site performed beautifully on the smart phone. Really easy to use. 😀

    1. Ya know the times are changing when its phone that occupies the husband while shopping. My dad and FIL enjoyed sitting in the car people watching…..by people I think it was mostly lady watching 🙂

  10. OS,

    Doesn’t that Euro snowfall map show 6 inches closer to Boston? I thought yesterday it only showed like 3 inches? Am I missing something…

  11. Hadi and TJ,

    Sorry, I hadn’t cleaned my glasses (have now). I was looking at Boston being about 100 miles into the ocean. 😀 😀 😀

    You guys are so right. It is WAAAY more than yesterday. The Euro is clearly
    a colder solution with a more prolonged period of snow/ice. 😀

    1. In looking at the Wundermap, Surface, 850MB and snowfall, it looks like
      ONLY 3 inches or so for Boston, then it fairly quickly goes over to RAIN.
      Yet your snow map clearly shows about 6 inches for Boston. So, I don’t know
      what’s up with that. GFS snow map shows only and inch or 2 for boston.

      Euro does show a weak coastal. Too little, too late as per usual. 😀

      1. Honestly, if it’s going to change over to rain, the less snow the better! I’m not particularly in favor shoveling a whole lot of slush!

    1. Perhaps that explains the difference between your snow map and the
      Wundermap???? I dunno.

      I’m not very optimistic, that’s for sure. 😀

  13. Thanks TK.
    Finally some stuff to track. First off hopefully this ice threat for parts of the south doesn’t matertialize. I love snow but I hate ice. I also think the EURO is overdone. This to me has the feel of a POSSIBLE light accumulation of snow before everyone goes over to rain. Whatever happens this does not appear to be a snowstorm for SNE at this time but rather a kitchen sink storm.
    UGH!

    1. Nah, it’s just a FAUCET storm. That’s about all of the kitchen sink you’re
      going to get. 😀

  14. Any snow Sunday into Monday has to come initially while the cold air holds on bc for the coast it certainly looks to warm up just enough for a cold rain.

    1. Yes, so we need to have the Cold air hang tougher than models are
      predicting. A stronger coastal, more off shore would do the trick.
      Now HOW do we get that to happen???????????????????

  16. We need the rain, and that’s what where gonna get, at my house anyway imo, it’s gonna feel like early spring the next few days as supposed to early winter 🙂

  17. Timing is key as well. Projected low temp Sunday night is low 20s and daytime high for Monday is mid 40s.

  18. I guess we should consider ourselves lucky there is potential winter weather to watch for early this season. In other recent years its been in the 50’s with no snow in sight. It’s a good sign there’s something to talk about and there’s cold air nearby at the very least.

  20. Matt Noyes is posting potential snow maps from GFS and NAM but it won’t load on my computer can anyone post them here? He’s posting on twitter.

  23. Matt noyes on twitter had no snow for Boston to Providence, 23 min’s ago he thinks its only elevation type snow (Worcester)?

  24. I don’t even have the 27 plows on the trucks, I’ve had the sanders ready since thanksgiving, and haven’t used them just yet.

    1. Of course. It’s also possible that Milford receives 4-6 inches, then much, if not
      all, is washed away. Possibilities abound. 😀 😀 😀

  28. Whatever happens on Monday I don’t think matters. It seems like we’re in a pattern where we have at least a storm or two a week and I think this will hold true for the entire month of December, that right track will come .

  29. The pattern is the same old song and dance we get a shot of chilly air and when we get precipitation its in the liquid form followed by another shot of chilly air. This pattern STINKS if you are a snowlover.

      1. Hadi, true, however, this pattern can be more frustrating
        as JJ points out. When it’s in the 50s we have no hope.
        With these cold shots and moisture approaching, we have hope,
        ONLY to have it dashed as a system cuts through the Lakes
        to be replaced by more cold air to start the process over again. 😀

    3. JJ I totally agree and it isn’t a new pattern – it’s just more of the same. And if it isn’t the warmup associated with the precip, the entire system heads anywhere but here.

  30. Here was Matt Noyes tweet that Charlie mentioned. Not set in stone.

    @MattNoyesNECN: Reality may end up we see elevation & location variability depending upon speed and depth of cold air arrival Fri night.

  33. That’s about a 3-4 inch snowfall where I am before the rain comes and washes it away. There COULD be some issues in the interior of SNE for that Monday morning commute.

  35. rain friday. ending as rain/sleet and or snow friday night or early saturday
    2 storm starts out as snow every where but coast sunday night. monday. snow changing to rain south of the pike and around boston inside of 128. areas of 128 out to rt 2 snow to a period of icy mix in the morning to rain. areas around and north of rt 2 and berkshires. snow to icy mix to rain. minor accumulations outside of 128. west of i95. light to moderate rt 2 northward. there early predictions. basically everyone sees some kind of wintry weather but will change to rain.

    1. Matt,

      A couple of comments:

      1. I think we get more snow Friday night into Saturday than you expect.
      2. I think we get more snow at the front end of Sunday night/Monday than
      you expect.

      Hey, I could be dead wrong, but that’s the way I see it at the moment. 😀 😀

  37. Hmmm

    Looking at the 12Z Euro…..Pretty interesting:

    1. Wundermap is showing about 2 inches of SNOW for Boston Friday night into
    Saturday AM. CMC and UKMET supporting a period of SNOW as well.
    2. Wundermap not out far enough for event 2, however, instant weather maps
    has the surface map and 850MB temps. Looking mighty fine for a period
    of snow on the front end. Cold at 120 hours and 144 hours, but there will be
    a transition in between.

    Here’s Hoping that HADI can report the data from the 12Z Euro like he did
    yesterday.

    I’ll report what I see from the Wundermap. 😀

    1. Hey, I was looking at the Wundermap again.

      When it shows the snowfall on that map, what increments is it?
      Is it 3 hour increments? 6 Hour increments? OR what.

      Reason I ask is, at hour 69 it shows 3-4 inches of SNOW for Boston area.
      at hour 72, it also shows 3-4 inches. I Suspect, even though the map increments are 3 hours, the precip totals are 6 hour totals.

      Anyone know for sure?

      Many thanks

  38. The system next week looks to me like a light accumulation of snow goes to rain quickly at and near the coast. Its the inland areas to watch where that cold air could hang on with all its might and could be a period of a wintry mix before going over to rain. One thing looks pretty certain at this time this will not be a snowstorm.

  39. I will post as soon as it’s ready OS.

    Below is the text output. Decent slug of snow with both storms.

    ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: BOS LAT= 42.37 LON= -71.03 ELE= 20

    12Z DEC04
    2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000
    TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500
    (C) (C) (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THK
    WED 12Z 04-DEC 0.3 1.9 1018 89 45 0.00 552 538
    WED 18Z 04-DEC 6.1 2.8 1018 48 70 0.00 554 539
    THU 00Z 05-DEC 3.6 2.3 1021 65 62 0.00 559 542
    THU 06Z 05-DEC 2.1 2.1 1023 81 26 0.00 564 545
    THU 12Z 05-DEC 3.8 3.4 1022 88 42 0.00 566 548
    THU 18Z 05-DEC 11.3 5.7 1018 80 34 0.01 569 554
    FRI 00Z 06-DEC 9.8 10.3 1016 98 60 0.00 570 557
    FRI 06Z 06-DEC 12.1 11.2 1013 98 96 0.03 570 559
    FRI 12Z 06-DEC 12.8 9.8 1011 98 98 0.02 570 560
    FRI 18Z 06-DEC 9.5 6.1 1015 76 95 0.06 568 556
    SAT 00Z 07-DEC 4.7 2.9 1019 88 100 0.05 567 552
    SAT 06Z 07-DEC 1.4 -1.0 1019 98 98 0.13 562 547
    SAT 12Z 07-DEC 0.6 -3.6 1022 90 87 0.22 559 541
    SAT 18Z 07-DEC 3.7 -5.5 1024 46 12 0.00 558 538
    SUN 00Z 08-DEC -1.5 -8.9 1029 60 6 0.00 557 534
    SUN 06Z 08-DEC -3.2 -9.6 1032 63 17 0.00 556 531
    SUN 12Z 08-DEC -3.9 -8.8 1035 53 27 0.00 558 531
    SUN 18Z 08-DEC -0.5 -6.8 1035 46 22 0.00 559 532
    MON 00Z 09-DEC -1.6 -5.8 1035 56 53 0.00 562 535
    MON 06Z 09-DEC -0.8 -7.6 1031 69 100 0.02 562 538
    MON 12Z 09-DEC 0.9 -3.3 1022 93 100 0.30 563 546
    MON 18Z 09-DEC 4.7 6.2 1009 91 27 0.22 561 554
    TUE 00Z 10-DEC 2.8 5.4 1008 97 9 0.01 558 551
    TUE 06Z 10-DEC 0.9 1.8 1011 93 8 0.00 554 545
    TUE 12Z 10-DEC -2.4 -2.6 1014 88 25 0.00 550 539
    TUE 18Z 10-DEC 0.9 -9.3 1014 60 27 0.00 546 535
    WED 00Z 11-DEC -6.3 -12.1 1019 64 4 0.00 541 527
    WED 06Z 11-DEC -6.3 -12.9 1021 54 21 0.00 539 522
    WED 12Z 11-DEC -7.6 -12.3 1021 55 10 0.00 537 521

    1. Hadi,

      Many thanks for posting.

      Looks like about .35 for Friday night as Snow And .32+ for Sunday/Monday
      as Snow, still subject to change for sure. More than I ever expected at this
      point, BUT it hasn’t happened yet. 😀

      Many thanks again.

      It will be cool to see the snow maps when they come in.

    1. Hadi,

      Cool. Makes me feel better that I pulled the approximate correct
      totals from Wundermap. 😀

      So it looks like “approximately” 3 inches or so for each event.

      Probably a higher likelihood for Friday night than for Sunday night.

      We’ll keep watching.

      Thanks again!

  44. If I’m reading the EURO Precip predictions correctly, its .51 for Fri Night into Saturday Morning …….. and ……… .55 Monday.

    I see that Friday’s precip amounts look more strung out over time, whereas Monday’s is a lot more compact.

    Of the Friday Night’s event, is it fair to say with the light intensity of the precip from 06Z Fri to 00Z Saturday and that the cold air will be slowly arriving, that only .35 would be left for frozen precip (in the best case scenario). So, at Logan anyway, I couldn’t see more than 1-2 inches at best given that ratios certainly would not be 10-1.

    For Monday, the .22 precip amount time period sees sfc and 850 temps WAY, WAY above 0C. So, again, probably .30 available for frozen precip (in the best case scenario) and assuming ratios not 10-1 …..

    I guess what I’m saying is I dont think Logan gets more than 1-2 total for both systems and I wont be surprised if its ends up with nothing and I think we’ll have to go out beyond 495 N and W of the Mass Pike to see any amounts worthwhile.

    1. Oh, here comes Mr. Kiljoy!! 😀

      Sure, you could be correct. We shall see.

      However, once again, I do not agree with you, but that has been a common
      theme lately. 😀 😀

      I’ll be watching.

  45. I would say 2-4 inches for both storms. I would take that and run with it. My 4 year old would love it. All he’s been asking when can he shovel.

    1. Right on target Hadi. Great preliminary estimate.

      Now let’s see if it can verify OR what conditions and/or changes will
      muck it all up? 😀 😀 😀

    1. Funny, it’s the same as the next 2 events combined, meaning of course,
      there AIN’T Anything else in the pipe until after the 10 day period. 😀 😀 😀

  49. Mr. killjoy again 🙂 ……..

    In Friday’s situation, with rain perhaps going to snow …… On the one hand, whats required to keep ripples of low pressure and their areas of precip continuing into our area is a jet stream thats parallel to a front. But, when thats happening, I think that tends to slow the arrival of the cold air into our area. If the cold air is arriving, its probably suppressing the further front and pushing the precip away from us.

    I just cant remember very many accumulating snows resulting from this type of scenario. Rain to snow and measureable snows happen often, but not under this setup.

    For Tuesday, its an inside runner in early December with a 46F ocean and I just dont see that being too profitable.

    The good news is I did so well with the last storm. 🙂 So, Logan likely will have 5 or snow inches in its seasonal total by next Tuesday. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. HE HE HE…..LOL, LMAO, ROTFLMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀

      You just made my day. Thank you.

      Well, the scenario you laid out, I’ve seen it go both ways. We’re getting model
      consensus for Friday Night actually happening. 😀

      One thing I will give you, it will be 50+ the day before, so “some” accumulation
      will be lost due to the initially warm ground. However, it appears there will
      be a reasonable burst of snow coming down at a good clip (for a time anyway, how long is the issue). That usually can over come warm ground issues. We shall see.

      Again, thanks for brightening up my day. 😀

  50. I hope it pans out as I would get two out of the three snow events out of the way for my prediction. I called for two snow events before the official start of winter and the third right before Xmas or right after. I’m telling you guys were in for a tough winter.

  51. What I will say I think no doubt the 2nd has more potential due to being so cold on Saturday and Sunday. It’s hard to scour out the cold so easily this time of year.

    1. I’m pushing for the coastal to get going SOONER than predicted
      and more off shore than predicted. THAT would take care of it all.

      Any Easterly to SouthEasterly wind this time of year is the KISS of Death.
      IF it stays cold aloft, and the winds from SE are LIGHT, then we can hold
      the snow for a time. If there is any UMPH to the wind, fuggettaboutit! Inland will hold frozen precip for a longer period for sure.

  53. Guidance is iffy today.
    This pattern is not one that allows a classic coastal to get going very easily.
    No changes to the forecast at this time.

    🙂

    1. Tk, Thanks.

      Yes, This pattern is not one that allows a classic coastal to get going very easily.

      I think we are all in agreement on that issue. Just searching for a way that
      it might somehow miraculously happen. 😀

      That’s what we do here. 😀

      1. Well – it is the season of miracles. Let’s all hope for one.

        Thank you everyone – Mr. Kiljoy included 😉 – for the great discussion and links!!!

  55. TK – not sure if you’ll be here tomorrow. If I remember correctly your mom has carpel tunnel surgery? If I am correct, I wish her the very best!!

    1. She does in fact have her surgery tomorrow. They changed the TIME 3 different times today, but suffice to say, the procedure is sometime in the early afternoon. My brother is dropping her off. I am picking her up, and then making sure she doesn’t do TOO much TOO soon (she’ll try!). I will pass along your good wishes. 🙂

  57. Even if we don’t see snow I thoroughly enjoy the excitement of the reports from all of you weather pros on WWW prior to any event. I love waking up in the morning and grabbing the Kindle to read the blog before I even open my second eye. 🙂 I wonder if Arod will chime in any time soon.

  58. Hello, driving by some of the ponds and lakes, they do seem higher than last week, also I think it’s disgraceful that the rolling stone magazine was pulled here, but wasn’t outside of mass, and it was the most bought issue of the year, and this is the worst part, that magazine cover got voted BEST of the year, and will be put in a frame and go into the magazine hof or whatever it is, geez!!!

    1. Sudbury river has barely risen. It seems to be the canary in the mine as I was saying it was too low long before any others became a problem. Drought continues and a few inches here and there will not make a dent IMHO

  60. Ch7 saying not anything really with the snow these parts Saturday am. But for the second storm rolling in after midnight sun/ mon and boston could get two inches of snow. Vicki is this considered an event, lol. Tk and jma were calling for rain on Monday a week out so you guys may get fooled.

      1. Me neither but that’s all I say as you all know I swear by Harvey or any 5 met. Glad we’re on the same page with the wording of event.

  62. Vicki right now I would say a moderate impact for the Monday morning commute across the interior. Interesting last paragraph of the article I posted about the models.

    1. I thought so too. Scared me a bit. As much as I love snow, I’m always nervous for those on the roads…especially when it is during rush hour. Do you have a long drive ?

  65. i would hate to live inside of rt 3 or south and east of boston do to all the times that its rain there and snow around my area. would hate that.

    1. I know what your talking about Matt with the snow/rain lines, if you drive up 495 from Wrentham to say Marlboro, I can only imagine living on rt 3 just a few miles from the coast.

      1. I wonder what the average is. We went quite a spell with more snow on south shore than here. And they have had some really nasty destruction. Last year two storms back to back

        1. Yep !! I think, on the South Shore, for the most part, if one excepts that December is usually a no-go for snow, then later January and especially February come through in the snow department.

            1. I’m not sure …….

              I will say that when we get a big one, like the President’s Day 2003 storm, the Jan 2005 blizzard, Nemo last year, what makes them impressive down here is that the snow is NOT powdery. It can be mildly wet to cement like and it just cakes to everything. When I was in Lowell, a big snowfall was much more powdery in nature.

                1. Yes. Most times its 30F -33F in the good noreasters here in eastern Marshfield, then it tends to fall some as the storm moves it bit further east and the wind becomes more northerly.

                3. tom my town billerica is a hill so when we get these storms cold air gets locked in my section of town usually last part of the town that changes over do to the cold sticking a tad more we also get nasty wind when it comes from the northerly direction

      2. in general. i look at this.
        berkshires. Northwest mass.
        berkshires western mass
        worchester hills
        areas north of the pike outside of 495 south of rt 2
        north of rt 2
        areas south of the pike
        east of i95
        areas outside 495
        ares inside 495
        areas between 128 and 495
        east or west of rt 3
        boston to providence line
        providence to taunton ma or to plymouth
        south coast
        cape cod east or west of canal.
        islands.
        did i forget any possible snow /rain lines phrases

  67. People can go ahead and talk about snow amounts for Monday…
    I won’t be doing that 5 days in advance. 😉

  68. As far as December, I’d think the best economic weather impact would be to have snow in the mountains of northern and western New England, with no icy travel in southern NH and ME, points southward.

    I do understand that this is not good for plowdrivers locally……… On the big picture though, I think that would benefit the ski economy where most of the industry is located (again it doesnt help say Blue Hill or Nashoba) and it helps the southern New England economy, which is much more dependent on travel not being disrupted. 1 day of travel disruption at this time of year, I’d assume is worth millions of dollars lost to retailers.

  69. Henry Margusity has two big snow events for the 13th – 17th for the northeast due to -NAO, then the pattern is quiet after Christmas.

    Maybe I better break out my light spring jacket for this timeframe? LOL. 😀

    Any snow forecasted this upcoming winter, I will believe it when I see it…not just falling but actually ACCUMULATING on all surfaces.

    3. Henry must be a believer in the Almanac which calls for a major coastal storm between the 16th – 19th of this month.

  71. I was referring more to the media, versus the blog crowd. You all can speculate all you want on snow amounts.

    But to clarify, above John said I called for rain 7 days in advance, and that is true. But I did not mention rain amounts. I wouldn’t do that either.

    And yes I still think we’ll see far more rain than we do anything else out of the Monday system. It’s going to be too warm aloft. This is not the right set-up.

    1. And “but the models say…” doesn’t work because I don’t tend to use the models verbatim. My favorite saying about the models is: “Guidance NOT Gospel”. 🙂

      2. Rain events are always easy to predict many days in advance because they almost always occur on schedule as opposed to snow events which tend to flip-flop up until day of arrival and go “poof” (rain or OTS).

        Just once I would love to see a rain event predicted days in advance end up as a major snow or at least OTS…has yet to happen at least so far in my lifetime.

  72. Totally agree. More wet than white for sure. But still thinking a decent burst for Monday. Euro still somewhat bullish for Friday night.

  74. I agree Tk, other than maybe a small burst initially, this looks to be about 80-90% in liquid. Tomorrow is the earliest sunset of the yr at 4:12pm, until Dec 9th and it sets at 4:13pm.

  79. The trend for this first system is to end with wintry precipitation so will see what happens. Finally we got things to track here.

  80. no more than a couple of slushy inches for the higher terrain of interior southern new england north of the pike.
    mainly rain.
    second storm. looks like a quick burst of a couple of inches of snow changing to rain for most besides for the higher terrain of the worchester hills and the berkshires where icing could accur. rain makes it up into new hampshire and vermont.

  82. From nws

    LOW PRES ORIGINATING IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL SLIDE INTO THE
    GREAT LAKES…LEADING TO AN OCCLUDING WARM/COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM
    SLIDING THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE DAY MON. PWATS ARE EXPECTED
    TO BE ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL…SO EXPECT A LOT
    OF MOISTURE AND STRONG MID LVL F-GEN WITH THIS SYSTEM.
    THEREFORE…EXPECT A FAIR AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION WITH GUIDANCE
    TOTAL QPF VALUES AROUND 1.0+ INCHES. THE KEY WILL BE THE
    ONSET…WITH COLD 1040 HIGH PRES STILL ACROSS ERN CANADA AND NRN
    NEW ENGLAND. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SFC-H8 COLD AIR HOLDING IN PLACE AS
    ISENTROPIC LIFT BEGINS OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE…WILL LIKELY SEE A
    FAIR AMOUNT OF THIS TOTAL QPF START AS SNOWFALL GIVEN THE
    AVAILABLE THERMAL PROFILES…WHICH IS LIKELY TO STILL BE FALLING
    AROUND THE TIME OF THE MORNING COMMUTE. SHOULD THIS BE THE
    CASE…WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A WINTRY MIX
    ONCE THE WARM AIR CATCHES UP AND FALLS ON THE ESTABLISHED SNOWFALL
    DURING THE DAY MON. STILL SOME TIMING/MESOSCALE THERMAL PROFILES
    WHICH WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED AS WE APPROACH…BUT THE PATTERN
    /ESPECIALLY HAVING THE COLD HIGH PRES TO THE N/ IS FAVORABLE..

    1. Hmmm

      Looks like they digested the 0Z Euro and spit it out for us.

      IF I am reading the Wundermap correctly, EURO wants to give the Boston
      area 6-7 inches of snow on the front end.

      Hadi do you have the 0z Euro snow maps for Monday??
      MANY THANKS

      Btw, Euro want to spit out 2-3 inches of snow Friday night as well.

      TO BE FAIR, other models not nearly as robust with snowfall and show cold air eroding more quickly. 😀 😀

      1. I think the euro today around noontime when it comes out with be milder, and the fuss on the blog will calm some till the next potential. We shall see, ill check back after the euro, good day all.

      2. Those amounts just in my opinion just seem way to high. For the first system very early Saturday am boston may get a coating at best, again at best. For early Monday well still kind of in that wildcard status as far as boston/south. I don’t know 2-4 I’m not sure if I’m feeling it. It will snow but does it stick to roads. I’m thinking more freezing rain. We need to watch it.

        1. John,

          Re: Monday

          It will most certainly snow and STICK due to previous cold at the outset. The question is how long do we hold
          onto to the snow before any change over. That is the
          question. Is it a brief period of snow or a prolonged period?
          😀 😀

          1. From NWS Upton Ny re: Monday

            MODELS IN GENERAL
            AGREEMENT THAT CONDS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AND SOME ACCUMS
            EXPECTED AT THE ONSET MON MRNG BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO A MIX AND
            THEN RAIN FROM S-N DURING THE DAY.

  84. Euro is by far the most aggressive OS.

    Wow Charlie yes we do have some rain coming in. Anything else you like to contribute about the potential storms? Love your insight.

    1. I don’t see a true potential with any of these storms, I’m watching late next week, will see hadi

    2. Hadi, certainly agree.

      Here’s a little something from DT at wxrisk.com:

      Simply put the model is “SEEING ” more the ARCTIC cold air actually in place over the Upper Plains… and as more and more of the arctic air moves into location over the Midwest and Great Lakes on Thursday and Friday …the trend towards colder surface temps may continue.

      AND may I add, are we to believe the piece of crap GFS OR does the HIGHER
      resolution EURO KNOW SOMETHING here?

      I have read that in these cold air damming situations, the higher resolution models handle the temperatures far more superior. 😀 😀

    1. Hadi,

      Many thanks. Just got to the office. Had to go to Norwood this morning and viewed you map on the road.

      Verifies how I read the Wundermap, if nothing else.

      Nice map.

      Overcooked? OR right on?

      Time will tell.

      Let’s see IF it holds with 12Z run.

      Thanks again!

      1. Friday late early Saturday was never to be a big deal at all. Your basically talking some patches of white on the grass.

  86. Just doesnt make sense ……… The high, with its dome of heavy, dense, cold, dry air on the one hand ….. will hang in there to keep the column cold enough for snow and at the same time, allow a big amount of precip to fall into it.

    Surely, I understand the idea of overrunning. But, in this setup, if there’s going to be moderate to heavy precip, isnt it likely because a big slug of mild air is intruding at some level of the column.

    I just dont see how, in southern New England, the snow can hang on for very long. I can see it being in the 30s all day just away from the coastline, but I’m struggling to see a big front end dump early next week.

  88. Interesting reading. Thanks. The conditions from Kentucky down into Texas are going to be horrific if it plays out as forecast…..accumulating ice followed by cold weather that will hold it in place.

  90. Nam is very warm with zero snow from first storm. It’s a battle everyone vs. euro. We shall see who wins.

    1. NAM worked well for snow last year, although only within a day or 2 of the event. Is it time to start looking at the various shorter term high res models?

      1. Ace,

        I don’t know how the NAM performs with Cold Air Damming.
        For more classic set ups, the NAM is very good. I don’t think
        any of the American models can handle this kind of set up.

        I’d lean towards the Euro, but perhaps tone down the results
        some.

        We’ll keep watching. Something will happen for sure.

        Nam should be done. I’ll check it out.

    2. Hadi,

      Yes, I was going to post that. GFS hardly has anything either.

      Very strange and ONCE AGAIN, we have model divergence.

      Is this going to be the trend the entire Winter?????

  92. I mentioned in a post earlier in the week that climo would be driving model temps colder in the mid range, then divergence would come as they start playing catch up to actual synoptic conditions that show anomalous actual climatic factors throughout the US and Canada taking place compared climatology. This is when model reliance kills forecasters and even worse faith in any one model shows insecurity within a forecasters ability to diagnosis actual atmospheric conditions. I keep reading about the high to the north, but that high will most likely not be directly to the north of SNE, in my opinion it should be northeast and that subtle difference seems to be lost on many forecasters. Tom has done a great job of listing additional limiting or negating climatic factors. Nothing is definitive, but a responsible forecast should be a more wet than white scenario in the areas where most people live of SNE.

  93. My above post references the 12/9 system. The 12/6 system’s winter weather potential is so limited, I did not bother going into any detail.

  94. JMA,

    Many thanks for the detailed analysis and believe me I understand what you
    are saying. That being said, it doesn’t mean I’m going to stop looking for any
    chance, no matter how small, of eeking out some snow here. I’ve done that my
    entire life, so why stop now. 😀 😀 😀

  95. Hi guys, I keep checking this blog because I am interested and because I am procrastinating on my paper :). I really hope we get a decent slug of snow sunday night into monday, in another note does anyone remember the december 4-5 storm in 2004 i think? my town got over 2 feet of snow, wouldn’t that be nice for early december!

  96. It’s looking like Tom will nail this forcast. Good job Tom. Tom you stuck with it and never gave in. Although this is not a done deal its looking like it snow wise.

    1. John, You can do that on Monday, not now.

      If it pans out the way Tom has described, I’ll be the first one to congratulate him, but let’s wait until the event is at least well underway. 😀

    1. Jma I had asked you a question on Monday night, not sure if you saw it. I’m not sure if you saw my winter predictions but I’m banking my forcast on first it’s looking like we may be contending with a week El Niño winter and second the above average snow cover in Syberia for the month of October. Usually the case with the above snow it tends to be a cold winter to follow. With the weak El Niño winter that generally produces good amounts of snow. I have done plenty of research and even consulted with dr Judah Cohen and all seem to be thinking warm for the tempature and about average for the snow, I’m in the process now of trying to find previous winters with a the above snow in Syberia and b weak El Niño winters although like I mentioned the weak elnino usually produces good snows. What is your thoughts on this. I do not see a warm winter.

  98. Ok, the battle is on.

    12Z GFS is in.

    For Friday night, bulk of precip as rain, little or no accumulation of snow here.

    For Monday, it shows a RAPID warm up at 850MB. Very little IF ANY accumulation
    for Boston Area and only a small accumulation far inland.

    SO does the EURO come on board OR does it stick to it’s DIVERGENT GUNS????????

    Logic would dictate that the GFS is correct, but “could” the Euro be correct? 😀 😀 😀

  101. What are the GFS ensembles saying? Are they as warm as the op or are they more in line with the EURO as far as temps and precip type go

  102. Or vice versa, maybe the euro ensemble mean is warmer and less bullish than the op runs and more in line with the gfs and others

    1. I don’t have access to Euro ensembles. I have a site where I can show
      the ensemble mean for MSLP only.

      Here is the operational run at 120 hours:

      http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2013120500&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=120hr

      Here is the ensemble mean at 120 hours:

      http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-ensmeantc2.cgi?time=2013120500&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=120hr

      just by eyeballing these runs, I would venture a “guess” that the ensemble
      mean in “Slightly by a very small amount” colder than the operational.

      But that could be wishful thinking on my part?????

    2. 😀 😀

      Ok, seriously, I have a question.

      Unless someone can tell me that there has been a major upgrade to the GFS,
      why oh why is this piece of crap model all of a sudden performing well???

      Makes no sense to me whatsoever.

      My rant of the day.

      Until the Euro comes in. 😀

  110. Not sure how it’s a non event with nearly half an inch qpf with 850 tema below zero. Maybe I a missing something. Climatology clearly playing a major factor.

  111. John to answer your question – I am not a very accomplished seasonal forecaster. My strengths have always seemed to be more in the area of diagnosing current to mid term atmospheric conditions and predicting sensible weather outcomes deriving from those conditions.

    I did read Dr. Cohen’s winter forecast. I see that he has a good track record and his forecasts should be respected, but I have to discount it some, because based on what he wrote he seems to lack an understanding of Arctic Oscillation. Based on the seeming ignorance of a key component of North American winter weather forecasts, I leave room for some significant margin of error in his forecast thoughts.

    While there is a possibility of an el nino setting up, I believe it could be so weak that its influence is negligible. As for snow cover in Siberia, sure there have been winter’s that you can link to significant snow fall in SNE, but other factors were considerably different, not the least of which are drought conditions in the NE US at the onset of winter caused by a numerous atmospheric and oceanic conditions. A consistent pattern of dissociated northern and southern streams was not present in the snowy winters of SNE that tie to early Siberian snow cover. Those winters also featured rapidly decreasing SST’s in SNE.

    At this time I believe the period thru January 15th should remain drier and colder than normal. I believe the greatest potential for snowfall will come in a 4-6 week period post January 15th.

    By March 1 I think temps will continue on a moderating trend that will significantly lessen the snowfall potential in most of southern New England even with normal precipitation.

    Those are my thoughts and I hope it answers some of your questions, John.

    1. I echo John’s sentiments. Many thanks. A very thoughtful and skillful response.
      We’re all lucky to have you here.

  116. Wundermap is in for 12Z Euro, but it is missing charts between 90 and 108 hours.

    At 90 hours, it shows 850mb temps at -8C in Boston area and JUMPS to +8C at 108 hours. Snowfall looks at to be “about” 5 inches on this run before the change over.

    Could this be the beginning of the “warming” trend alluded to by JMA?

    Will be able to confirm IF Hadi can post the snow maps.

  117. So gfs over euro Tk? The GFS makes more sense to me, but why is the euro consistent on showing some small snow amounts?

    1. Yes but I think as some have said here its just to much to overcome. Not thinking it’s in the cards now hadi.

  121. Hadi,

    How can the Euro be colder? When you look at Wundermap the 540 line doesn’t seem to be close by. The whole setup seems pretty terrible for snowlovers. I guess will have to just nowcast this storm. I’m hoping for snow but am pretty realistic its going to rain on the coast.

  123. I am not saying it’s correct but if you look at 850 temps below zero whereas 00z run had them pop up above zero.

  126. I guess I’m confused. The Low is traveling well west of here so how can the cold still be hanging on? Is there a secondary low that is developing and we are just not seeing it clearly on the models that is helping to keep the cold air locked in?

  128. I am with ya TJ I think bc it’s a cold before and high is there even though it’s moving out. Maybe just enough and at the right time.

    1. It showing 3-5 inches for capecod, idk Tk knows the euro is not being fed the right data, to me the gfs makes sense and the euro is confusing and doesn’t make sense. And no it’s not bc one shows snow and the other doesn’t lol 🙂

  132. On one of the major networks, the weather guy said that one of there trusty models has gone haywire, I wonder if he’s talking about the euro, and he then specifically went on to say that places like NYC and Boston will get rain, and places like dallas will get ice out of this, very weird storm but the storm going west is a rain producer IMO 🙂

  135. Keep in mind those snow maps are not perfectly accurate. Cut the amount by a 1/3 and you have an accurate read.

  136. Hadi,

    Can you re-look at those 850MB temps. As I posted above they jumped from
    -8C at 90 hours to +8C at 108 hours. That clearly indicates a changeover.

    Where are you seeing below freezing for the whole event? I don’t see that.

  137. friday night into saturday mornig.
    up to 3 inches outside of 495 north of the mass pike. higher elevations seeing higher amounts. others snow comes to late watch for standing liquid to freeze quickly for black ice

  139. The initial low which tracks up towards our west is not strong. Perhaps this would lead to weaker warm air advection and with the high at 1030+ mb (fairly strong), the column could stay cold for a few to several hrs more than other models are showing. (The boundary layer near the coast with any easterly component is another matter).

    So, perhaps this is why the precip amounts on the latest EURO have dropped a bit. Weaker warm air advection, weaker precip.

    I guess there’s an approximate 16C temp rise at 850mb over 18hrs. Perhaps this is in response to what looks like a secondary area of low pressure near NYC or around there. I’d assume that would rapidly increase the warm air advection and be the better precip maker.

    So, perhaps the initial low is good for a few flurries or a dusting. Then, I could even see a lull where it doesnt do much. The next wave of precip arrives (secondary low) and would be sleet or a sleet/rain mix near the coast that quickly goes over to rain at the coast and a cold rain inland, as the warm air advection really cranks in, but it remains chilly (30s) at the surface outside Rte 128, especially 495.

    This is fun, it will be interesting to see how it all plays out and hopefully gives us insight for future storms to come !

    1. It is fun. We’ll see what shakes out. Even IF 850MB temps remain
      cold for awhile, IF the precip is lighter, it would allow for a much quicker
      warm up of the boundary layer. WE need the precip to be fairly heavy.

      I just find the whole situation facinating.

      😀

  140. TJ,
    Earlier you posted: When you look at Wundermap the 540 line doesn’t seem to be close by

    Were you looking at the surface map with a 5400 line way to the North and West?
    If so, those lines represent Heights and NOT thickness. When we talk about the 540
    line it refers to the thickness of the 1000MB-500MB layer of the atmosphere. HUGE
    difference.

    😀

    1. TJ, I was just looking at that map again.
      To be truthful, NOW I don’t know whether those lines
      represent heights or thickness. It doesn’t really say. Will have to
      investigate.

      On another note, the charts are now available between 90 and 108 hours
      on the Wundermap.

      At 90 hours, 850MB temp is -8C, agt 93 hours -10C, at 96 hours -6C, at 99 hours, -4C, at 102 hours just barely below freezing, at 105 hours +6 C.
      So BIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIG jump between 102 and 105 hours. OR between
      1PM and 4PM on Monday.

      😀

      1. I can’t find that information. I have sent a question to
        the Wundermap folks. In the meantime, I compared
        an Instant Weather Maps 500MB Heights chart with the
        Wundermap MSLP for the same time (96 hours).

        I WAS initially WRONG. In comparing those maps, it now
        looks like the Wundermap has 1000MB-500MB Thickness
        contours and NOT heights as the maps are totally different.

        Sorry for any confusion.

  141. OS – you are right – this is fascinating and I am loving following the posts from you and Hadi and Tom and Ace. JMA – it is always wonderful to see your posts here. Very informative and yet easy for a total amateur to follow. Tom – somehow you have mastered presenting the information in a way that also teaches!! Some lucky students in Marshfield 🙂

  144. OS,

    I’m more confused than ever…Great explanation from Tom. Hopefully we keep some heavier precip and things stay as snow. Wundermap is not the easiest thing to read so I’ll just rely on everyone here to break it all down.

  145. From what I’m reading on Twitter looks like things are getting pretty slick in AR/TN already. Going to be lots of problems down south.

  146. From the 12Z FIM, the Monday event has a decent slug of precip.

    850mb temps rise from -5C or 23F at 96 hours to +5C or 41F at 102 hours, a period
    of 6 hours.

    .25 inch falls as snow prior to hour 96 and then there is another .5 inch from
    96hours to 102 hours. Figure “about” 1/2 of that could be snow/sleet.

    So around or about 4 inches or so OR in agreement with the EURO

    So do we have 2 models going haywire????????

  148. OS,

    You see the 18Z NAM?? Looks like its trying to develop a Low right off of Virginia at 84hrs. Granted this is way out of its range and its the 18z. But fun to look at.

    1. let me check again. I think when I looked, I just saw that it was up this
      far yet and let it go. Be back to you. thanks

      1. Yes, I sure do see it!!

        For others, here it is:

        http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

        To be sure, this is an 18Z run, BUT this is a MARKED change.

        Check all the upper level winds. It would take it somewhat
        off shore. Would it keep the COLD in??????????????????

        IS it real? One can barely see the Primary system on this run.

        18Z GFS is almost there. We’ll compare.

    1. Your not kidding. It’s even harder when you have Xmas lights and seven air blowns strapped to the front farmers porch.

        1. I thought that with the recent cold that maybe they would not make an appearance this year, but I have started seeing them as well. This must be part of global warming since I don’t recall ever seeing them when I was a kid. In fact, I don’t recall ever seeing them at all until this 21st century.

  150. Since Instant Weather Maps was at least temporarily out of service, had to go to
    NCEP for latest 18Z GFS, so it is not out as far as it would be on Instant Weather Maps.

    In any case, check out this chart at 63 hours. NOTICE that the arctic HIGH
    has dropped a little MORE SOUTH????

    Also notice the extra bubble of HIGH over Wisconsion??

    Hmm, perhaps it doesn’t move out as fast as some models depict??????????

    Just saying……

  155. Hmmmm…looking at 18z dgex model. This model has primary storm hug the coast. Snow to rain and quickly out of her. Then later another plume of moisture as snow comes up. Me thinks this isn’t over just yet.

    1. He did at 4:30 and 5:00 and 5:30. He said it was early to pinpoint but that it would be a mix. They may be cutting him short because of the coverage re Mandela. Horrible loss IMHO

        1. He said in his opening paragraph we have the kitchen sink. Not sure what more he could say as the 7 day forecast which he referenced was on the same web page.

  157. Hi gang.

    Was just mentioning to Hadi on FB that I hate this pattern. I don’t see much to get excited about.

    Just a bunch of cold fronts and WAA that won’t add up to much in the snow category.

    No established cold and a wishy washy pattern at best. It’s gonna be a while before we get any shin-deep stuff I think.

      1. How’s it going Charlie. I’ve been way too busy at work. I mentioned to Hadi to send me a note if you guys plan on going out for a beer some night. How’s business right now? You caught between seasons?

        1. Good!! Actually very good!!! Glad ur back, always enjoy your insight, and yes I wouldn’t mind going out for an app and I owe hadi a beer 🙂

        2. Hi retrac. Always nice to see you here. Did you give a guess for snow total this season? I’m sorry I can’t remember. If not, please feel free to post it.

  158. Oklahoma City, OK ….. The 100F city all summer is currently ……

    20F with light sleet. Folks down there must be absolutely frozen !!

  162. FOG and its thick.
    Of course i had to mention this possible winter weather event to my parents for sunday night and monday so guess whats gonna happen. Its probably gonna become all rain . Every time i have mentioned a possible storm it either gone poof or became rain.

  164. Here I stand at macys. Purchased christmas gifts 2 nights ago
    On pre sale. Now they can’t find it!!!!!!! What a bunch of ssmucks!!!

    Really foggy out there. Hope we can get home ok.

    I smell a rat with sunday monday system.

    We shall see.

  165. A quick note on my mom: Her surgery went great! She’s been resting and is in great spirits. Not looking forward to having it wrapped up the next few days and having very limited use of the hand for a week before stair-stepping back toward normal, but she is VERY happy to have the procedure behind her. 🙂

  167. all models agreeing first system no on in southern new england sees more than a couple of inches. most berkshires higher elevations of worchester hills. flakes do fly though basically any where west of i95 for a time period friday night into saturday early morning. temps for friday. highs will be in the upper 40s but quickly fall around sunset.
    weekend looks dry till sunday
    sunday night snow starts late. monday. snow changing to a mix of snow, sleet and rain in the mid to late morning. sleet and rain in the afternoon.
    what im thinking right now.
    would have posted this on my blog but just do not feel confident enought to put it out. i will post a map of predictions like i started doing last year probably saturday night or friday night. depending on confidence 🙂

  170. Todd on BZ, a coating to an inch locally for tonight’s storm. Maybe 1-3″ in central and western MA.

  171. Taunton’s morning discussion gives a nice summary about the continuing differences in the temperature profile on the models for Sunday night/Monday’s storm and the snow possibility outcomes.

  174. Hadi I wish we could see some snow piling up come Monday but just at this time just not seeing it for this area, sure northern/ western may see there first plowable event but no plows here I think will be needed. As for tonight for this area again I’m calling for a coating at best tops. Enjoy the day.

  175. I think if boston gets a coating tonight and that’s a big iff, that will be the most snow out of the two systems.

    1. Yes I agree. If oldsalty is looking for that surprise may come tonight. Ch5 calling for less than an inch close to boston and coating up to 2-4 north and west. Does that stick right away though for boston or more on grass.

  179. Look at the nam it’s for sure colder, brings accumulating snow from both systems to around 2-4 inches for the coast and more inland.

  180. currently the GFS and Euro both agree that we get more out of tonight than mondays system. 🙁 but of cource this is the 06z gfs

  182. Wow!
    Things sure do change.
    Nam is fairly jicy for tonight AND it turns colder
    Prior to the main slug of precip. Same with gfs.

    Here’s my feeling. It changes over to snow earlier
    Than cuurently predicted.

    Not sure what is up with monday system?????

      1. Nam is way colder Matt than previous runs. Doesn’t mean it’s gonna snow more but it creatively is colder.

        1. but the euro and gfs got warmer in the past two runs for the second storm i im reading it correctly with little or no snow.

    2. OS, just dropped from 57 to 52 here. Western part of the state is already in the 30’s. We will see if the cold wins out.

  186. Burlington, VT : 37F, dewpoint 35F

    Watertown, NY : 36F, dewpoint 28F

    Mt Washington : 23F

    The column above is starting to cool a bit, I think Mt. Washington was 31F at 6am. I’m interested in the trends of the temps and the dewpoints of these 3 stations for the next handful of hours and then will probably watch Manchester and Nashua, NH this evening.

  190. YIKES,

    Look at the 12Z NAM. It has a crap load of qpf coming AFTER 850mb temps
    have dropped below freezing.

    Here is the total snow map for tonight/tomorrow:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013120612&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=030

    Usually, I would say that the NAM has overcooked these values, BUT honestly,
    in this case looking at the maps, I think it is underdone.

    Even this gives Boston a solid 2-3 inches. I think it could be more like 3-5 inches.

    Waiting on the GFS and the rest of the 12Z runs. 😀 😀

    1. Perhaps in 4-5 hrs, we can get an idea if the NAM amounts are believable.

      It looks like it has 8 or so inches of snow for southeast Missouri and I believe that area is getting the heavy precip now. So, by early to mid afternoon, we might be able to see how the NAM is verifying for that region.

      1. I was at the car dealership this morning and the TV was on. IT showed a reporter on from somewhere in Arkansas and it was
        snowing like crazy. I’m thinking it will absolutely verify.

  194. We shall see. Nowcasting tonight and tomorrow morning.
    I will say temps are dropping quicker than anticipated to the west of us.

  196. This storm never had a chance here for big snow potential, rain looks to be heavy overnight, we do need this as we’ve been dry, today and tomorrow r last days of work, finishing lime apps, temp is 53.1 nice December day 🙂

  197. Temps not crashing fast enough in eastern sections tonight before the heaviest precip falls. My obs from the 12Z GFS so far

  198. Gfs has been super consistent, I don’t see any surprises, it just doesn’t feel like it will, idk, we will know tomorrow, but it is surprising that there is absolutely no buzz on the streets for a potential snow event, I haven’t gotten 1 call wondering or asking about something, very surprised 🙂

  205. Tweet from nws back to me.

    we are looking at all guidance as it comes in. The NAM QPF is more then GFS/EC hence the higher amounts of snow. Stay tuned!

  206. Currently, western and northwestern Arkansas look like they are receiving moderate to heavy snow, both by obs and radar. Overlapping that against the 12z NAM, that area of snowfall looks like its going to verify.

    Continuing into southeast Missouri, where the first 8 inch bullseye appears, I’d offer that there is very little chance that will verify. If anything, it appears the cold, dry air may be eating into some of that precip.

    Following the heaviest stripe of the NAM snowfall prediction into the mid-Mississippi Valley, many of those obs currently show sleet/freezing rain.

    Burlington, VT and Watertown, NY still in the mid-upper 30s with dewpoints not much lower, however Mt. Washington is down to 14F !!

    2. Long ago, Don Kent used to call the temp obs at the top of Mt. Washington
      the New England “Snow Barometer”.

    1. Yes! That is why I indicated above that I thought that the change over
      would come sooner than predicted. 😀 😀

  208. Looking at radar echoes, this system coming up tonight is LOADED!!!!!

    Impact here for tonight is being underestimated in my opinion.

    We’ll keep watching to see. 😀

    1. Ironic. Tonight’s system wasn’t supposed to be much of anything, it was the monday storm that was supposed to deliver us with more precip. Now that has gone poof for the most part.

  212. Still 50 in Walpole even though the winds have been NW for a few hours now. Down about 2 degrees since the front passed.

    2. Barry had coating to 2 inches at the 11PM broadcast last night, so nothing
      has changed at all there. 😀

  216. Lol 🙂 I honestly think little if any accumulations will happen around here, north and west say where Vicki is may be different, I think precip moves out just in time for places south and east of Boston, and that’s where I’m at, we shall see 🙂

  220. It’s gonna have to snow pretty hard, for a relatively long time for it to accumulate even a coating, it’s still mild out.

  221. I know everyone’s schedules are probably crazy this time of year, but if anyone’s interested, I was thinking of a gathering again at a restaurant/bar for some food or drinks. Maybe shoot for Sat the 21st? First Day of Winter celebration 🙂 Let me know!

    2. Ideas for places to meet too. I think a few of you met up last year at the Yardhouse in Dedham. Did that work well? I know it can get pretty packed there, esp at night.

    2. Wundermap shows about 2-3 inches of snowfall for the period ending
      18hours and another 2-3 inches or so period ending 21 hours. I “PRESUME”
      those are 3 hour totals? If they are 6 hour totals, then the grand amount
      is about 2-3 inches, else it could be 4-6 inches.

      Hadi, what time will the “official” 12Z Euro snow maps be available to you?

      BTW, snow amounts for next system WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAY down
      on this run. 😀

        2. Let me know if I have this correct….

          Its all about the dew point, never mind the air temp. Once the dew gets below 32 and we get into heavier precip, the air temperature will drop and cause a flip to snow?

  229. A friend of mine who lives in Ohio posted on facebook this morning that they were expecting 4-7 inches in her area. She just updated her status saying that they have bumped it up to 7-12. Seems to be some surprises embedded in this system.

    2. Ya think? 😀 😀 Look at the radar images. It’s really coming down.

      How much will fall as snow here and how much as rain?

      I’m thinking more snow than rain. 😀

    1. I just copied the map from bz’s site and it says coating to 2″ boston – no major stations seem to have any snow south of about plymouth

    1. I agree. I told my wife at lunch to expect that.

      Joe Joyce says 1-3 he he he I don’t believe ANYTHING he says!!!

      I think 2-4 is almost assured for Boston area and it would not surprise
      me one bit IF it were more.

  232. 48 degrees here in Quincy. Only need it to drop 16 degrees and will be good here. Let’s hope for some surprises!!

    1. Hadi,

      Many thanks! It’s so cool that you can share that with us.
      So that shows a solid 3+ inches for the Boston area. Now that
      run was initialized at 12Z this morning. MUCH has changed since that
      run. Therefore, I do believe that the totals WILL be higher.

      Could I be full of S**T??? Of course, I am often. 😀 😀 😀

      BUT I have also been correct a few times. 😀 😀

      I think it could get pretty hairy tonight.

    2. hmm, not working on my end. Ive been having trouble with links since we switched to win7 at work, so it might just be me

  234. Joe Joyce Seems like a good guy. He’s pretty enthusastic about the weather. He’s probably just being careful let’s see what the rest of the crew has to say.

    1. Something about him that rubs me the wrong way. Just don’t care for him.

      I like Harvey and Barry and so far Eric Fisher. 😀

  237. This will be another case of snow north and west, and here in Bristol cty and sw Norfolk cty will get nothing, at least there’s north to back up anything I report or vice versus, I’m sticking with mainly a rain event with a few snowshowers at the tail end 3-4am, maybe a coating in a few locales, but mainly a nonevent, out in Worcester it will be a different world at 500-1,000ft 🙂

  239. I really hope this happens. I really feel I could nail another winter with the right snow numbers. This has been a tricky one to follow. If we get this storm I need two more this month to get off to a fast start. Where is tk.

    1. JJ I had the windows open (cleaned the oven and that is always smelly) and it sounded like spring too with the birds singing.

  244. Down to 42 at Worcester with Dew Point of 39.

    Ever so slowly creeping downward.

    Btw, Blue Hill is still at 46, but dew point has dropped from 43 to 39.

    Pittsfield, 35 with DP of 29.

  245. Remember the temperature will not be lower than the dew point. Hopefully get those dew points to continue to drop.
    Level 1 snowfall since it looks to be a light snowfall but you never know what surprises will happen with a system.

  246. travel ratings. on a 1-5 scale
    evening rush before 9pm
    level 2 across rt 2 and the berkshires
    level 1 throughout the rest of southern new england

    Overnight
    1 for areas south and east of boston
    2 for mass pike, 495 128
    2.5 for rt2
    snowfall.
    little or no accumulation coastal areas and areas south and east of boston including boston
    coatings to 2 inches inside of 128 and i95
    2-4 through out the rest of the region isolated 5 and 6 inch amounts for the higher elevations.

    not sure what is up with the second storm again thought i was starting to see a trend and then the trend stopped with the latest model runs. 🙁

  248. I posted above….

    Let me know if I have this correct….

    Its all about the dew point, never mind the air temp. Once the dew gets below 32 and we get into heavier precip, the air temperature will drop and cause a flip to snow?

    1. The lower the dew point, the easier it is to turn over (assuming cold above).

      So yes, those dew points dropping help for sure. I think temps will come
      down enough. The key is making sure the column is cold enough. WOuld
      like the freezing level to be reasonably low. IF is is say 28 degrees F at
      5,000 feet, but 33 at 4,000 feet, then that is no good. Want the column cooled
      enough so it is below freezing almost to the ground or however many feet
      it would take to melt the snow flakes.

  249. Guess who OS ? 🙂

    Currently, the snow zone on the northern side of the precip is very, very narrow. Get too far south in the precip, the column has a layer thats too warm for snow. Get too far north in the precip and the cold, dry air is eating away at the northern edge of the precip. So, on the NWS website, I dont buy this large area of accumulating snowfall. I’d think its going to be a rather thin strip.

    Whats going to be the next push that gets the colder, drier air in here to interact with the precip ? Winds are fairly light and there’s nothing to indicate that the north wind is going to increase sharply tonight.

    So, I’ll stick with the idea Boston is not going to get much snow. 1/2 inch at Logan.

    By the way, I have no travel commitments tonight or tomorrow. I hope it snows 2-4 inches around the whole area. I think that would be great !!!!

    1. Big difference from Logan to say Newton? Logan is not where I am saying 2-4 accumulation but rather away from Logan.

    2. What else would I expect. Btw, it looks to me that the snow area is
      expanding in width and is not as narrow as you say. We shall see.

      Would it surprise me if Logan came in with 1/2 inch. Nope.
      IF so, then Hadi and I get about 2 or 3 inches. 😀 😀

      It wouldn’t surprise me IF Logan got zippo or a coating either.

      Wouldn’t surprise me to see Logan come in with 3 or 4 inches either.

      Felt like a nice breeze out there to me when I was out awhile ago.

      I think you’re jaded by being on the South Shore. Move on up North my Friend. Go North young man, GO NORTH! 😀

        1. No wind in Framingham today either. Temp has held pretty much steady at 46 all afternoon. DP just dropped 1 deg to 39.

  250. Also keep in mind clearly 3-4 inches is not going to stick say on major roads but rather grass, cars and side roads.

  251. I see the dewpoint topic above ….. Let me throw this out there ……

    The dewpoint needs to drop, right ? But, if the dewpoint drops to say 23F or 24F and the temp is 36F, sure the wet bulb temp will be near or under 32F, but guess how much precip intensity will be lost ?

    I mean, to get into the heavier precip in this scenario, we need to be near the best moisture. Its a catch 22, if the cold dry air becomes too entrenched, guess what would happen to the precip we see to our southwest ?

    Its a very narrow area where the oveerlap occurs between enough cold air in the column and there’s available moisture. The trick is, where is that going to set up ? I dont think its over central Massachusetts.

    1. You had me going!!!!!!!! Kind of falls short of Boston, no?
      Expanded Eastward, true, but not all the way. 😀 😀

  253. NWS Taunton just updated longer term forecast and are calling for 2-4 except on the south coast for storm 2 before changeover. They said it is low confidence due to stronger coastal system on Euro more than the other models.

    1. From NWS, re: Sunday Night-Monday
      AT THIS POINT…IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR PRECIPITATION TO START AS SNOW JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. RIGHT NOW EXPECT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF ROUGHLY BETWEEN TWO AND FOUR INCHES EXCEPT ALONG
      THE SOUTH COAST.

  256. Everything seems to be verifying and looking like the Boston to Providence corridor is mainly rain, I’ll give credit if your right hadi, but we shall see 😉

  258. Nashua NH dew point down to 32!

    There seems to be a ZONE of lower dew points from Boston Northward and not
    necessarily Westward as Worcester dp still 38.

    I find that really interesting.

    I still think that the WWA gets expanded all the way to the Coast from Boston North.

  259. Wait till the precipitation comes in especially if it comes down at a good clip that will drop that dew point down even more.

  260. Weather advisory: Special Weather Statement
    SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
    428 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

    CTZ004-MAZ006-007-013>016-RIZ001-062330-
    WINDHAM CT-WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-
    SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-
    NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…PUTNAM…WILLIMANTIC…LAWRENCE…
    GLOUCESTER…FOXBORO…NORWOOD…CAMBRIDGE…BOSTON…QUINCY…
    FOSTER…SMITHFIELD
    428 PM EST FRI DEC 6 2013

    Minor snow accumulations possible overnight…

    rain will mix with and change to snow around midnight and may
    then briefly be heavy for a time before tapering off late
    tonight. depending on how quickly the changeover from rain to
    sleet to snow occurs, a coating to perhaps as much as two inches
    are possible.

  262. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 6m
    Precipitation moves back in this evening, many in New England make change to snow either side of 10pm (on average)

  263. Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 52s
    A 9-12 hour snow event for most of the Northeast tonight/Sat AM – shipping out of New England 7-10AM.

  265. Boton dew point down to 33.
    Worcester temp down to 41.
    Manchester, NH DP 29
    Jaffrey, NH DP 27
    Fitchburg DP 32
    Keene, NH DP 28
    Beverly DP 33
    Lawrence DP 30
    Windsor Locks DP 31

    😀 😀 😀

  266. Temp and DP 45 and 34 respectively in framingham and Uxbridge. The new Humarock wundergroud station has 47 with 41 DP but it sits on the coast of course

  267. You can cut the model snowfall forecast basically in half for 2 reasons: 1) Too much QP forecast. 2) It was in the middle to upper 50s this morning and won’t be cold long enough for the ground to hold the snow for quite a while, and even when it does start to accumulate it will melt from heat radiating out of the ground.

      1. There will be snow tonight after 10PM (give or take), until around dawn. We’ll have more snow tonight than we get at the front end of the Monday system, unless the precip. comes in WAY earlier than modeled on Sunday night.

        1. Thank you TK. How’s your mom? Is she trying to be quiet ?? Tell her please I take a deep sigh every time I remember at various times my family telling me to just let others do for me. But in hindsight, they were right. I do feel for her 🙁

          1. Thank you!
            She is doing well!
            Tired from the pain meds, which is good because it’s forcing her to rest and not be tempted to use the hand too soon. 🙂

  270. So mike wankum basically said what tk said for boston. It was in the mid 50s for boston today and now is still in the high 40s. Mike said basically anything that would stick would be on grass as the ground is really warm. Barry who I’m sorry just don’t like still calling a coating up to 2inches for boston . JJ new to chan 4 this year is a scale on the event and they agree with you on a 1. I’m on call tonight and I do anticipate a call. Either way ot tomororrow at 7am so call or not does not matter. We shall see how it plays out. It was warm in the city today and I think it felt cooler after lunch but than it felt warmer again. So mike has an inch on grass.

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