The Storm Weak, The Cold Week

125 Comments

2:30AM

A bright and cold start and a grey and cold finish can be expected today as high pressure to the north of the region slips away to the east and a low pressure area approaches the Great Lakes and spreads increasing cloudiness across southern New England. This system will attempt to redevelop just south of New England and track just offshore, but will be quite weak and rather fast-moving. With cold air locked at the surface for the early to middle stages of the event Monday morning, most areas will start as snow, but as warm air comes in aloft rather rapidly, a change to rain will take place. This rain will freeze on the surfaces it falls on in areas north and west of Boston for a time Monday morning to midday, with the best chance of some minor icing being mainly near I-495 through the Worcester Hills and into interior southern NH. But even here the ice should melt as temperatures go above freezing during Monday afternoon. Moisture exits the region from south to north by Monday evening but we may be left with some fog. As low pressure finally pulls away by early Tuesday, we’ll see drying and cooling take place, but a frontal system trailing the low will be lingering offshore and a wave of low pressure will ride up along it and bring the chance of a period of light mix/snow to the South Coast and Cape Cod Tuesday morning to early afternoon. The mid to late week will feature dry and cold weather as a northwesterly flow becomes established. A few disturbances moving along the flow may bring some clouds at times and there may also be a few instances where snow showers from the Great Lakes try to sneak into parts of the region, but these will be the exception rather than the rule, and the main story will be the cold along with some windy episodes.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Sunshine fading behind increasing cloudiness. Highs in the 30s. Wind light variable.

TONIGHT: Overcast. Light snow developing overnight, except mix/rain South Coast. Lows in the 20s except 30-35 South Coast. Wind light SE.

MONDAY: Overcast. Snow from Boston area north and west, mix/rain to the south early, changing to rain all areas during the morning but a period of freezing rain interior MA and NH. Rain tapering off late. Areas of fog. Highs upper 30s to middle 40s, coolest interior valley areas. Wind SE 5-15 MPH.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. A period of light snow/mix South Coast through Cape Cod through early afternoon. Temperatures in the 30s.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Partly cloudy periods. Isolated snow showers. Lows 10s to lower 20s. Highs middle 20s to lower 30s.

SATURDAY: Sun to clouds. Lows 10-20. Highs 25-35.

125 thoughts on “The Storm Weak, The Cold Week”

  1. Thanks TK.
    As I said yesterday the timing of this system is not good for the morning commute tomorrow especially across the interior.
    It does not take much wintry precipitation whether its snow or ice to make things slick.
    Moderate Impact for the commute tomorrow. Level 1 snowfall since any snow that accumulates will be light (4 inches or less)

    1. Within a few miles of 495 up thru interior southern NH, but using over-hype to their advantage, the crew will have pretreated major roads sufficiently that commute impact (based on roads) will be minor, but impact (based on the fear placed in people’s minds) will be moderate. Some minor/untreated roads and of course walkways/driveways will suffer a little more unless they are treated. Whatever impact will be fairly short-lived. We will not have been cold enough long enough to keep the ground below freezing. By early afternoon it’s a memory and the ground is wet everywhere with areas that do see any snow/sleet accumulation looking like they did late Friday night and early Saturday.

      1. Conflicting information for boston on amounts. Plowable event tk? And how much. If I work tonight that will be myself traveling first thing tomorrow as my wife is having a minor procedure done in Quincy and I need to take her.

        1. Boston? If anybody needs to plow there I’ll be flabbergasted. I don’t even think the city sees much of an icing problem other than briefly on untreated surfaces sometime in the hours around dawn.

  3. The areas for the icing will be the interior as the cold air will put up a tough fight. Were not looking at huge ice accumulations but a few tenths are possible. It doesn’t take much to make things slippery and the timing of this system is not good.

  4. Thanks TK,

    A highly unimpressive event with not much moisture at all.

    Here is the 12Z NAM snow map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013120812&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=051

    12Z NAM and 06GFS has the next wave staying pretty much off shore.

    Even the CMC calls for changeover, although the UKMET wants to keep it colder
    much longer. The GFS calls for virtually no snow and Warms much faster than
    the other models.

    Sort of a wimpy little event. 😀 😀

    1. Could you answer the question I posed to tk because I’m getting conflicted info. Busy day today as I’m being brought by fire truck delivered as Santa a little bit later.ho, ho, ho.

      1. John,

        NOT a plowable event. Where you work, likely will require
        sanding/salting, In my opinion.

        Goof luck with Santa!!!! Have fun!

  5. dang this ski season is off to a good start for northern ski areas but for around southern new england its reminding me of that year of almost no natural snow. The man made stuff is getting better but no where as good as the natural stuff.

  6. Recognizing that some sleet may be contributing to stronger echos on this
    radar loop, it still appears to be a fair amount of moisture. Wondering
    what happens to it when it gets up here? Runs into too much dry air?
    Same dynamics won’t be in play? What’s up with that????

    http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php

    Also, for a system that was progged to run up into the Great Lakes, there
    sure appears to be MUCH more Eastward motion going on here?
    What’s up with that.

    And finally, knowing that the front edge is not making it to the ground, still
    LOOKS to be ahead of schedule for moving in here.

  12. This initial batch of precip, hitting a wall south of us, is producing moderate to heavy snow in northern Maryland. The GFS and NAM have that little snow bullseye over that region and I think its because of this initial batch of precip. The bright greens over NJ are still struggling to make it to the ground.

  13. Look at that icing in around the D.C. area. With that amount of icing that is when you could start to have to deal with power issues.

    1. Yes, truly an unbelievable cold airmass, especially in coverage. It is December, but still ……… a large part of the US is below 32F (for highs !!!) and has been so for a few days. The amount of area affected by sleet and freezing rain has been huge.

  14. Because this late autumn, very early winter we’ve had some cold high pressure areas move from the northern midwest to north of New England ……. the 12z GFS around mid-month is showing another high to the north of New England, with low pressure around the mid-Atlantic and New England in the middle, with what looks like some light precip and cold thicknesses. Perhaps something to watch the trend of ?????

    1. You are on the right track I believe.

      I think we’re trending back to the cold/dry pattern but not without threats of mostly light snow events. IF southern stream moisture gets involved then the threat increases a bit, amount-wise, for some of these systems. But it’s still NOT a pattern conducive to classic up-the-coast storms. Don’t see that anytime soon.

  15. Its snowing in Philly, Baltimore, and D.C. now. Its going to be interesting watching those football games in those cities this afternoon with the snow that will eventually go over to a mix.

    1. Watching football that being played where its snowing … is the best ! I seem to remember a Pats game within the last 3 or 4 years in Chicago, where it was snowing. Its fun to try to figure out what yard line they are on.

      1. I saw a tweet pic of Raven Stadium a short time ago and snow was starting to cover the field. A good band of snow setting up close to I -95 corridor between D.C. and Baltimore.

        1. I have the NFL Redzone package. I am hoping my team the Cowboys go into Chicago and win tomorrow night and the Lions beat the Eagles today in Philly.

          1. I had that redzone, I hated it bc I missed so much of the actual football park, after getting it for 6 months I’ve come to a conclusion redzone is only for fantasy fans, or don’t really care for the actual game itself, to each there own, have a good day jj

              1. I like it because if your a fan of a team that is outside the local market like I am with the Cowboys at least you get to see part of the game. I would rather see some of the game then nothing at all.

            2. No when your team isn’t on tv then red zone is awesome. I love red zone big time and I care about football

  17. I still see 1-2 inches of snow after midnight-6am for most from Boston to just north of providence north and west, anyone south and east of Braintree to Taunton will be just a rain event other than a few flakes to begin, sanders r on call starting at midnight, no plows going on.

    1. That’s a sign of the energy getting strung out along a fast flow and the lack of ability to form any dominating secondary low pressure area. Makes me even more confident of my take on what happens here.

    1. Enjoy the game! I’m going to listen to this one on radio in-car and on headphones while I perform a massive can/bottle return with my son and take a walk through some woods in Lexington. 🙂

  23. Philadelphia was upgraded to a winter storm warning. The dry air is preventing that snow from coming up here to SNE.
    I don’t think we snow at that intensity as they are seeing in Philadelphia up here and only thinking a coating at most 3 inches. Clearly the snow is over acheiving in parts of the Mid Atlantic.

      1. When the Philadelphia area was upgraded to a winter storm warning it was calling for 3-6 inches. Now its saying
        in the latest update with the warning 5-10 inches. NAM model looks to have gotten this one for that area when the
        12z run came out. Philadelphia only had 8 inches of snow total last year and could get a good chunk of their total
        from last year in this one storm system.

  24. This is no great lakes cutter. TK said on 12/4 that this would be a great lakes storm and I give WXrisk alot of credit for his long forecast. He said because of the strong front coming through no way would this storm be able to buck against the flow. He did a good job for the Mid Atlantic of the concerns down there to communicate possible problems.

  27. It sure looked like a blizzard earlier in that Detroit Philly game. Im curious to see what the final snowfall totals will be in and around the Philadelphia area with the rate at which the snow was falling for a good period of time.

  28. As I look at the dewpoint and sun to my south it seems the precip will be fighting a lot if dry air…

  29. Your right a lot of dry air to overcome before the precipitation will start reaching the ground. I don’t think we see the type of snow up here that they are seeing in parts of the Mid Atlantic today. Coating to at most 3 inches here in SNE.

  30. Anyone think that will get any precip? I mean they seem to be getting crushed down south but I think alot of this goes east of us. I wish we were getting 5-10 but I think will be lucky to get anything.

    1. I think they are driving everyone nuts. I literally could do better and that I’d very sad.

      But what a game. Although I’m getting too old for this 🙂

  33. Well that was a fun game. 😉

    No change to the forecast. I don’t care what is going on down to the south. That is not coming up this way. It’s too dry and if you look at radar trends that stuff is screaming almost due east.

    1. Good news TK as the timing is just too bad for potential ice. I was talking to my sister in law who lived in Dallas (flying for delta) for about a decade. She said in all that time they’d seen some icing but never anything like what they just had. Amazing swath this system touched.

          1. A dusting, at most, followed by a little light sleet, changing to rain.

            I dont know if you have access to radar. If you do, check out whats remaining to our west and southwest. (Not much). While a little development of precip may happen, I dont think it will be much. Some of it will be lost to dry air and then, by early morning, the 46F ocean’s influence will be kicking in along the coast.

  34. Unbelievable game!!! Historic stuff I never ever will forget. Patriots clinch there 11th division title in 13 yrs. what a evening!! And it doesn’t matter if your the broncos, or the crappy browns, they are not out of any game, great stuff, playing pool downstairs with 5 or 6 with my sons and other friends and family watching football, all smiles here 🙂 28.5 degrees cloudy skies 🙂

      1. I’m not saying win or lose. But I remember far too many times teams in Boston have been written off. As I said to Matt, never give up on a team that doesn’t give up on itself :).

        1. Agree ……. No Wilfork, Mayo and Gronk again. That they are 10-3 is amazing. Selfishly, I’d love to see them get the 2 seed and a bye. I’m concerned about the next 2 games, @Miami and @Baltimore……. They cant finished tied with Cincinnati (head to head loss), but Cincy has to play @Kansas City. So, if Pats can go 2-1 in last 3, I hope that will get it done….. Get the bye, somehow win once at home and then they are 1 game from the Super Bowl.

  36. For those of you who saw gronk go down well he sadly probably will not be playing until next year. torn ACL according to the NFL channel 🙁

  38. For 10 days out, its remarkable that both the EURO and GFS have nearly the same setup for Dec 15th. The storm would be a miss, but its a cold high to our north with a mid-Atlantic low.

    The EURO’s 10th day setup I would love if it happened. A 1004 mb clipper, not bad for a clipper that must be intensifying as it passes, I think its 986mb or something like that east of New England on the next panel. We’ll see if that holds. 🙂 🙁

    Hows everyone feeling about the mid-Atlantic snow today ? It sure fealt and looked like snow today.

    1. It is weak and hard to find at the surface. But, in looking at the surface winds on Unisys weather, I do see light southerly winds in Missouri, easterly winds in Iowa, and North to northwesterly winds in Nebraska.

  40. re: GronK:

    FOXBORO — Rob Gronkowski had to be carted off the field Sunday midway through the third quarter after taking a vicious shot to his lower right leg. Pro Football Talk reports that an MRI is scheduled for Monday but the initial reports are “not looking good” on his right knee. Mike Garafolo of Fox Sports (via twitter) cited a source in claiming that the tight end “suffered what’s believed to be a torn ACL.”

    So the MRI isn’t until tomorrow, let’s hope their fears are NOT realized.

  41. Wxrisk.com
    **ALERT *** ALERT *** TUESDAY SNOW EVENT LOOK MORE AND MORE LIKELY..

    STRONG arctic cold front drops SOUTH front WAVE of LOW pressure develops on the front … sending the moisture INTO and BEHIND the front ..into the colder air

    This will NOT be BIG snow.. something like 2-4″ snow looks to be about right ..

  42. Its not a lot of snow but if it comes in at the wrong time an impacts the afternoon commute its a big deal.
    Impressive snow totals in parts of the Mid Atlantic. Newark, Delware coming in at 11.3 inches as that area came under one of those heavier snow bands and there was some good lift down there.

  43. Maybe it’s the mid Atlantic year like a couple years ago.

    Losing Gronk is a disaster for you all. He was the key to the offense and without him you guys are winning anything. So pray it’s just a sprain and not a tear. On another note anyone see how bad my skins looked, they should be ashamed of themselves. Such a proud franchise that has been turned into crap by Snyder.
    #firesnyder 🙂

      2. I guess there is just conflicting info out there on this storm Tom. I just checked noa and they had here 1-2 inches. And like I said to you all had at least an inch or more for boston. It does feel cold outside. Why so much conflicting information. Until you miss one Tom I’m going with you.

  45. I see the panel from 216 to 240 and it develops too far east. It still throws some decent snows at us though.

          1. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast.php

            The above radar link is one reason I dont think a couple inches happen ….. and

            There’s still on average, a 15F difference in most places btwn the temp and dewpoint, so, the column is going to need a little precip falling from the clouds first, before it eventually starts to reach the ground.

  47. Hadi,

    So were having a Massive Blizzard Christmas eve…thanks for the heads up. To bad the Euro has been performing terribly lately.

    1. The SE ridges can break down slower than first thought, so perhaps if it can hold strong enough, this last wave of low pressure Tuesday can edge further N and W a bit.

    2. move that a tad closer and i will like it. i rather see the cape and areas south and east of boston seeing rain and letting the merrimackvalley around 128 to 495ish seeing the snow…. and yes im greedy when it comes to snow 😛

  51. well that took one day.. of not looking at the models to show another possible chance of a light snow event for tuesday. maybe i should stop looking at weather models more often…

  53. Hadi,

    Just wait a minute and TK will dash our hopes for snow Tuesday. Thanks for all the great work you do TK.

  56. For tomorrow morning commute.
    1-5 scale road ways conditions
    south and east of boston. coastal locations. level 1 driving condions
    coastal northeast mass level 1 driving condtions. east of i95
    level 2 for anyone in the winter weather advisory area. though level 1 inside of 495 by noon time
    possibilities of delays and cancelations of schools
    no chance of school cancelations in eastern massachusetts
    Delays at 30% outside of 495 south of the pike
    50% north of the pike and outside of 495 not do to snow but do to the sleet and freezing rain
    snowfall. up to 2 inches besides for some locations seeing 2 to 4 inches higher terrain north of rt 2 and along northwest fringe of 495 everyone south of rt 2 should be rain my noon time.

  57. Picked up about a half inch to 3 quarters of an inch, it was snowing moderately at 3am, done sanding, only 12 sanders were on the roads from midnight to 7am, now just rain 🙂

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