Snow Brush

331 Comments

7:28AM

A wave of low pressure riding up a cold front just offshore will toss an area of snow into southeastern New England today, mainly from late morning through mid afternoon. The snow will be most significant along the South Coast with less to the north, with snow probably never really making it to southern NH. Amounts below will reflect this set-up.

Then a dry and very cold stretch of weather will take hold Wednesday through Friday as we finally get a taste of some of the arctic air that has been dominant to the west and north of the region.

The weekend looks unsettled but I’m low confidence on the details of how that will play out, so that will be revisited soon.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Cloudy with a period of snow developing from southwest to northeast this morning and ending late in the day with accumulations less than 1 inch in most areas north of the Mass Pike (isolated 1 inch+ amounts possible) and 1-3 inches from around the Mass Pike southward (isolated greater than 3 inch amounts possible). Temperatures steady in the 30s. Wind NW to W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows 15-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs around 30. Wind W 10-20 MPH and gusty.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY: Dry. Lows 10-18. Highs in the 20s.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY: Unsettled with episodes of snow/mix possible. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

MONDAY: Dry. Lows in the 10s. Highs in the 20s.

331 thoughts on “Snow Brush”

  1. Look at surface weather obs versus what the radar looks like.
    Dry air does not have to be at ground level to limit snow. Sometimes we have to look just above the surface. The dewpoints are higher here at the ground where the very low level moisture was trapped last night.

  2. Thanks for the update TK !! Sounds reasonable !

    That weekend event, with cold high pressure to the north, looks somewhat interesting, from this far out.

  10. Yawn…………..

    06Z GFS and 06ZNAM have come down some on snow amounts.
    Unless there is a surprise this is a NOTHING event!

    Nam amounts:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013121006&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=036

    GFS amounts:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013121006&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=036

    Canadian qpf: (this shows about 5mm or roughly .2 inches which supports the above)

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&type=SN&hi=000&hf=024&lang=en&map=na

    UKMET qpf: (again about 5mm or so or .2 inch)

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&type=PR&hi=000&hf=036&lang=en&map=na

    That’s pretty good agreement. 😀 😀 😀

  13. Regarding this weekend’s event. I don’t think this baby is etched in stone just yet.

    On last evening’s 11PM Broadcast, Barry Burbank was VERY confident that the
    weekend storm would be a potent inside runner/coastal hugger giving Boston a period
    of snow/mix going over to a soaking rain storm.

    Looking over the models, there is reasonable divergence.

    The Euro develops a very strong coastal, a little late for the Boston area, but boston
    gets a good slug of 4-6 inches of snow prior to a changeover. MTs up North 1 foot+.

    06Z GFS is colder than 0Z run, but still has a change over.

    Canadian is similar to the Euro. Good slug of snow
    before a changeover.

    UKmet looks to be the coldest solution.

    JMA (Japanese) shows a potent system near the benchmark.

    FIM shows a really potent INSIDE RUNNER.

  26. If anyone reads the accuweather blogs boy it’s funny. Those kids get so worked up about the snow. They read the models and go nuts when it doesn’t happen.

  27. From NWS:

    LATEST TRENDS
    FROM 06Z NAM/GFS AND 03Z SREF SUGGEST A SOUTHWARD TREND IN QPF.
    LATEST RUNS OF HRRR ALSO SUPPORT THIS IDEA ALONG WITH MESOSCALE
    SNOW BANDS FRAGMENTED AND DISORGANIZED. NOT TOTALLY UNREALISTIC AS WAVE REMAINS OPEN AND VERY PROGRESSIVE. THUS OUR SNOWFALL PREDICTIONS ACROSS NORTHERN CT INTO NORTHERN RI MAY BE TOO HIGH IF MID LEVEL FGEN AND MESOSCALE SNOW BANDS SET UP FARTHER SOUTHEAST.

  28. So looking ahead clearly a loaded system for the weekend but temps again not looking good. Snow to start and then a quick changeover.

    1. Loaded to be sure.

      I think the JURY is still out on this one, however, it would be very typical
      to have an inside runner/coastal hugger. As JJ would say, unproductive cold!

      Both the GFS and the EURO have trended Colder, so I don’t think all is lost.

      If I read the Wundermap correctly, Euro calls for about 4-6 inches of
      snow in the Boston area. Do you have the snow maps?

      Canadian, UKMET and JMA all look really interesting.

      If the Euro shifts Eastward just a little bit, we’d be in for it. It’s only Tuesday.

  29. Barely snowing here – has been minimal for about 90 minutes. Daughter in Uxbridge said they have a coating. They lost all of yesterday’s stuff on the ground. Snow started there around 7:00 am-ish and she said you can just see the tops of the tallest grass.

  30. Looking over 00z euro and 00z euro ensembles the trend is pretty much the same. Most storms are coastal huggers with some snow to start but quick changeover to rain. We are locked in to this pattern.

    1. I agree about the damn pattern. But there is time. The GFS definitely
      trended COLDER with the 06Z run compared to the 0Z run.

      So let’s see. The result may very well be what you say, but let’s not
      give up yet. 😀

  32. Light snow, visibility about 2 miles …… sticking to everything except for pavement. Light coating so far, been fairly steady since about 9:50am.

      1. Same here Tk I am in Reading and not even a flake, radar shows snow but I am guessing there is a lot of dry air to overcome and by the time that happens the snow will be gone probably

    1. I can barely make out Mission Church from here, which is less than a mile
      from my location or perhaps a mile. So it’s decent snow. Still not quite
      moderate, but NOT wimpy light. 😀

    1. Agree. I can NO LONGER see Mission Church at all. Vis very close
      to 1/2 mile now. I do believe that 1/2 mile indicated Moderate Snow.
      So if we are not now moderate it is as close as one can get to it without
      it being moderate. 😀 😀

  43. The one thing for weekend storm is that it would not take much of a shift to give us big snows. PV is in good location and I think it will get better over the next couple of days. I bet it trends colder over the next couple days.

    1. 12Z GFS trended COLDER still and DUMPS us really GOOD with SNOW!!!
      It still has a change to sleet and/or rain, but right at the end of the storm!!!

      Maps to come.

      2. Visrtually a Classic coastal!!!!

        I’m liking this, but of course it will change again! 😀

        Let’s see if the Euro trends colder as well.

        1. Looks like a nice main low in the great lakes dies off and transfers to a coastal low. Northern mtns get the dry slot in between and we get clobbered

  54. Still light to moderate here with a bit sticking – looks very pretty. Got some nice pics from my daughter in Uxbridge where there is more but grass still showing.

  56. When is the weekend event going to take place? Starting Saturday am or pm?

    I bought a house and did some extensive renovations to it over the last month. I had my chimney inspected and the house would have burned down if I had a fire in the fireplace. I have a wood insert being installed this Sunday and they will need to get on the roof. I would like to put a bug in the ear of the company doing the work but not sure when this will start. I know we are several days away so anything approximate.

    3. Looks to start somewhere around 7 PMish on Saturday. Commencement
      will most likely change as we get closer to the weekend. Good luck.

  58. About 1 inch now. Looks nice !!

    So, the GFS came in colder ….. not surprised ! Models have been hinting at very cold high pressure to the north next weekend. Only hope that the high doesnt become too dominant and either completely keeps it too far south or strings out the low pressure area into weak areas of low pressure.

  60. A lot to figure out. A 1032 high is perfect, not too strong and located perfectly. Watch that over the next couple days. Tom watch where the transfer occurs to the coastal storm.

        1. If I am not mistaken, there is more precip filling in
          to our West and Southwest. Perhaps just a break
          and it will pick up again??????

  61. No accumulation on anything here other than a bit of white on the branches. The ice mix that remained from yesterday is melting also.

  64. I couldnt help myself. This is TWC making 3-5” of snow just south of us seem like its the end of the world.

    “Dion is barreling in like a freight train,” said The Weather Channel’s winter weather expert Tom Niziol. “The snow is going to come down so heavily. We’re looking at very quick accumulations of 3-5 inches of snow. It’s going to overwhelm the streets and make a rough commute.”

    Now I know it wasnt that long ago I was in school, but we regularly went to school in 3-5” of snow.

  65. It’s a disgrace what has happened to a once very good network. It has become the National Inquirer of weather

  67. Winding this one down. Maybe one more flake burst if the band to the west holds…and it may not.

    Weekend: GFS could make it as a fiction writer. 😛

  68. Maybe it’s just me and I know it’s not reflecting this way on the models for Saturday, but wouldn’t that High be a retreating one by Saturday?

  71. I know its the GFS and its a long ways off, but the storm around xmas the euro monthlies was showing has shown up on the GFS. Just sayin,’ something is there 😉

    1. OS, pretty decent band crossing north central MA and another enhanced area in central CT. If that translates east we could get a burst of some moderate snow

  73. Farmers’ Almanc big storm for the month of December showing up on the 12z GFS. I would so love for that to happen but lets be realistic here will get way less than that predicted, a fish storm, or a rainorma.

    1. Nothing noteworthy Vicki. Probably 1/4” at best here in Walpole. Not even above the blades of grass yet. Nothing sticking to the roads/walkways either. Snow picking up in intensity a bit last hour but i don’t see us ending up with anything over an inch if that.

  75. 12Z euro has low pressure forming off the NJ coast early sunday morning. Like Scott77 said earlier though, looks like its showing that high pressure retreating to the east allowing it to hug the coast. Not an ideal position like on the GFS. Still showing some front end snow, but not sure how much yet. Something is coming for the weekend and it will be messy.

  77. Don’t worry the Euro will trend colder. Does anyone know what the water temp is? Ch7 shows 42 degrees and ch 5 has it at 47.

      1. The inner harbor temp can be found on Taunton NWS site under tides. Click on tides, then choose Boston. Look at the bottom, you’ll get an inner harbor air temp and water temp.

        For the buoy 16 miles out, google Boston Harbor Buoy and that will give you a display of data for the buoy further out in the harbor.

        I always use the buoy 16 miles out, because I figure on big storms with wind, its the open sea temperature thats going to have the biggest effect on coastal temps.

          1. BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
            (44013) 42.346N 70.651W
            Last Updated: Dec 10 2013, 12:50 pm EST
            Tue, 10 Dec 2013 12:50:00 -0500
            Temperature: 34.7 °F (1.5 °C)
            Dewpoint: 34.5 °F (1.4 °C)
            Wind: Southwest at 15.7 MPH (13.61 KT)
            Wind Chill: 25 F (-4 C)
            MSL Pressure: 1009.5 mb
            Water Temperature: 46.4 °F (8.0 °C)
            Wave Height: 0.6 m (1.97 ft)
            Dominant Period: 8 sec
            Average Period: 5.5 sec
            Mean Wave Direction: East (75 °)

            Buoy A0102 – Mass. Bay/Stellwagen
            (44029) 42.52N 70.57W
            Last Updated: Dec 10 2013, 1:04 pm EST
            Tue, 10 Dec 2013 13:04:00 -0500
            Temperature: 35.2 °F (1.8 °C)
            Wind: West at 13.4 MPH (11.66 KT)
            Wind Chill: 26 F (-3 C)
            Visibility: 1.40 miles
            MSL Pressure: 1007.5 mb
            Water Temperature: 46.8 °F (8.2 °C)
            Wave Height: 0.6 m (1.97 ft)
            Dominant Period: 8 sec

  79. Well euro is cold like gfs and loaded with precip. Close to 1.50 for Logan and 850 temps well below freezing

  80. Hardly anything down here in Plymouth. I was chatting with Vicki on Facebook earlier and told her I wanted to go for a drive with my boys tonight to look at lights since it would be pretty with the snow. I guess they will still be pretty with the little spots of white we have. 🙂

  83. Hadi,

    That Euro run is impressive. That big high forces it to move off Just right.
    There is a changeover line that almost gets up to Boston, but on this run Boston
    would pretty much remain all snow.

    This storm is a monster.

    Now, let me see. IF the GFS if fiction, is the Euro fiction as well?

    CMC has this baby, but just a bit too close for Boston with a changeover.

    UKMET has it, but far weaker.

    JMA has it at benchmark, but much weaker.

    FIM not available yet.

    ALL in ALL, it looks MEGA interesting. We shall see if subsequent runs keep it
    around.

  84. I can’t believe how closely the 12Z GFS and 12Z EURO are in depicting this outcome. We probably wont see this much agreement again, lol

  85. My soon to be brother-in-law and his wife are planning on moving into their new house this sunday. This could be a tough day for them if this happens. I wonder if i should suggest they move it up a day to saturday just to be safe. Regardless of the details it seems like it will be a messy day

  87. Just watch the high even though it starts to move another one is right behind. If that tracks hold no way mix in Boston. But don’t worry about ptype right now but rather track and where coastal transfer takes place.

    1. Yup!!
      OUTSTANDING!! That’s about what I calculated from wundermap.

      Hint/Tip:

      1. For bloggers, when Hadi posts these links where he has saved a screen
      print of a map to the IMGUR site, simply click on the map and it will
      ENLARGE.
      2. Hadi, if you do that when you upload to Imgur, then the link is automaticaly
      enlarged.

      😀

  92. The one time I don’t hope for snow, it may indeed … snow! On Sunday, my mother is coming in from Vermont by bus to spend a week with me. Later that day, my son flies to Holland to see his mother for the holidays. Then on Monday my daughter flies in from Minnesota. Looks like the 16th will be fine, but the 15th looks iffy.

      2. It looks east on wundermaps for a brief period, but goes straight to NE then North during the meat and potatoes

        1. I was just going to post that. Early in the storm, when
          we are very cold here, the winds are actually ESE, but
          very QUICKLY they back to ENE, then NE and then N.

          So, as Hadi indicated, with that track, we are in business.

          😀

  96. Tweet for today from nws

    @NWSBoston: Heads up #Boston, heavy band of snow moving into the region. Traveling to become hazardous w/ reduced visibilities & accumulating snow.

            1. Did not pan out in boston as you know hadi, oh well. My wife said its been snowing in pembroke since 9am. I’m at work till six so ill deal with it at 7 when I get home. I’ll report how much than.

              1. I am guessing it won’t be much John as we didn’t get much here in Plymouth. It snowed all day but didn’t amount to anything.

  99. Hey – we are accumulating – HUGE flakes and grass tips nearly covered. Sue, hope you get it your way as it is also coating the bushes and trees and will be lovely for a ride to see the lights

      1. My daughter just said that they want to take the boys out to look at the lights tonight too. I have the lights on our tree and will finish decorating tonight with the help of Mac and a little six year old elf. All presents I have so far are wrapped – yay, wrapping not my favorite. But watching the snow out the window finally got me motivated! Enjoy your trip around your area with your boys!!!

  101. Hadi and OS, are either of u near Mattapan right now? If so, do u know what the road conditions are like? Very light snow down here in Walpole, not sticking, but curious what its like up there. Fiance will be driving home from there in the next half hour.

    1. I’m a few mile from there. Current road conditions are just wet.

      CAVEATS:

      1. Temperatures are dropping. Could get icy soon.
      2. The heavier snow band just arrived, so not sure what the road
      impacts will become.

      Hope this helps.

    1. In Lexington it never really materialzied…picked up a bit but that wasn’t saying much. Ground is black and it was just starting to build up on cars when it stopped. Just glad I don’t have to move any snow when I get home. My coworkers who rent laugh at me.

  105. Working downtown today right across from the Pru on Boylston St. Pretty heavy band moving through. Snowing moderately to heavy at times. Visibility is down.

  109. Maybe, just maybe this weekend’s storm will be one of those rare occasions where all the models have a decent handle on the situation and stay pretty straight and narrow this many days out till the event. Only small details to iron out in the meantime? I hope so!

  110. Be careful… The energy that the models are using to develop the weekend storm is in the form of a cut-off low over the Pacific at this time. A very data-void region.

    Back to the current event: I have received an entire 0.1 inch! That qualifies as the coating I was forecasting for my area. I’ll take it. 😀

  112. I remember a nice Euro snow map a couple weeks ago that looked something like that. The result was: 0 inches. 😉

  115. Moderate sized snowflakes gently falling, with no wind. 1 inch of wet snow. My oldest daughter has the bottom part of frosty built and is working on another roll of snow.

  116. Very easy to Predict rain because more times then not it will be rain this specific of year. Predict snow is a harder art in early December- And …. there was alot of talk about how dry its been and continues to be. I’m not sure that is holding up…Hmmm

    1. We continue to run well below normal in precip. despite a recent heavy rain event. The overall pattern remains drier than average even with the occasional precipitation event.

  118. From DT:

    ABOUT SATURDAY DEC 15 EAST COAST LOW
    December 10, 2013 at 2:08pm

    *** ABOUT THIS COMING WEKEEND ‘S EVENT ***DEC 14-15

    YES Virginia as I have been saying for 3 days now there is a COASTAL LOW coming for Saturday Not a “overunning” event and not a weak little Low pressure llike we had today… coming for Saturday . A real honest to goodness coastal Low.

    DT’S East coast SNOWSTORM RULE #1: .

    Big East coast Snowstorms ONLY happen when certain THINGS or weather feature in the JET STREAM (at the 500 mb level for you wx geeks) are in Place FIRST. Look at today… the cold air was NOT firmly in place and we lost a lot of accumulation be cause of marginal temperatures near the ground. (n some places it never snowed all even though the temperatures were 32°).

    With regard to the Saturday event …for most of the coastal areas from North Carolina to Connecticut this event appears to be a rain event. There appears to be enough cold air even on the coast for the precipitation to begin as frozen— as snow or sleet– but it does not stay that way. This weather system will have two areas of LOW pressure. The FIRST Low ( called the Primary Low in the wx Biz) will track into Kentucky and Ohio then a new or COASTAL LOW ill take over (refer to as a secondary Low in the wx biz) — off or ON on the Virginia Coast.

    To the north the cold HIGH over upstate New York and Montreal will slide off the Maine coast by Saturday afternoon. Thus the interaction between the HIGH fading to the east AND the 2 Lows will produce a Southeast wind from North Carolina into Southern New England. This southeast wind will cause low level temperatures to warm and the precipitation will go over the all rain.

    Inland over the Western Virginia western and Central Maryland the interior portions of eastern and Central Pennsylvania Northwest New Jersey southeast interior New York and interior New England the cold air will probably hold . The precipitation here may stay as sleet or frozen for extended period of time.

    The European model develops the secondary or coastal Low pretty rapidly and this enables the precipitation to go back over to snow over coastal New England and much of New England COULD .. COULD see a significant snowstorm.

    On the other hand the operational Canadian and GFS models pull that coastal Low INLAND which means that even interior southern New England would see a major rain event as well as the coastal areas from Virginia to New York.

    If we stick with what we KNOW about Upper air patterns that favor East Coast snowstorms… then the best SNOW we can get from this weekend’s Low would be the European model solution. The upper air patterns over Eastern Canada and Greenland are NOT favorable for a East Coast snowstorm but it is possible that New England could end up getting a significant snow especially over interior areas.

    The area of uncertainty would be the interior portions of Virginia especially the Shenandoah Valley up into western and Central Maryland and interior Eastern Pennsylvania and Northwest New Jersey. In these areas the precipitation as I stated above could stay mainly frozen for extended period time. Whether that might be snow or sleet is impossible to know at this timeframe. The Low does deepen considerably or intensify and it eventually ends up to over southeastern Canada by Monday and Tuesday. I will talk about this event extensively in the video this afternoon early evening.

    One other note of some importance .. The European model shows a SECOND piece of energy in the jet stream which drops in the Midwest and heads for the Middle Atlantic Coast early next week. The Saturdays Low is over southeastern Canada and that forces this next system to come much further to the south and east. If this 2ND weather system is real.. IF… IF … It would pose a threat of being a primarily snow event her portions of Virginia Maryland and North Carolina. ( DEC 18-19)

  121. Hey, everyone. I’ve been lurking around in the background but now I have a nice little snow story. I have a new student from Jamaica–he’s seen snow on three occasions–once on the day after Veteran’s Day, then the other night and then today. He’d never been out in it. So, we had a nice little gentle snow here in Milton and I took him outside–showed him snowflakes–which he never saw, showed him how to scrunch snow together (which unfortunately, he then tried to do without gloves) and we made some footprints. Awwwww….

    1. I was just going to post …. Light, steady snow, that now it is dark, is piling up a bit. My road is now lightly covered. Up to 1.5 inches.

      1. Is it still snowing there?

        Nothing at all on ground in Watertown per Mac. I’d say about an inch here but I’m guessing – could be 1.5. Some side roads are a bit slick but main roads are fine.

    1. Would love to know where the ham radio operator is in Framingham. His totals are always high. Absolutely no way we got more than 2 and that is a stretch.

  130. If storm tracks hold course I think this is a major storm. Fresh cold high and GOM moisture spells big time snow.

  131. I think the trend we may start seeing with future runs of GFS & Euro is a weaker and colder system shifting more and more SE until there is not a whole lot going to happen.

    2. This would not surprise me either TK. It would be in tune with cold & dry winter which is what the signals have been to me so far IMHO.

      1. It is an overall cold/dry pattern, though not to the magnitude of a December 1989. We still have mild days, and precip. periods within the longer term dry/chill.

  132. Hello Everyone!!

    Salting has been completed, no plowing or shoveling required as expected from most. This weekend storm has a lot of potential, but does have potential bust, it’s to early to throw around numbers just yet, but I think this has the potential to be a big one in Worcester with a foot of snow, with residents in Plymouth reporting a cold rain, we shall see, 🙂

    1. Oh don’t worry, there are several TV outlets already talking numbers.

      I guess we’re finally done with the front-page-news storm of today. 😛

      1. Eric already has 6″+ and Pete a foot (potential). Harvey is like you and is saying pretty much nothing until we get closer to the weekend. 😉

        TK – do you have a problem with using the word “potential” at this stage still several days out as long as it’s not the “final” call?

        1. No problem at all using potential.
          There is the potential for snow, the potential for mix, the potential for rain, and the potential for filtered sun through high clouds as a weak storm passes out to sea. 😉

      2. Not knowing that much about the storm other than tv mets saying it could be really big I’m guessing we get a plowable storm for most just maybe not as big. As Pete said its coming just how much. The cold air will not be a problem so that’s my guess not knowing all that much. I doubt we escape without some snow.

        1. Logically there is no lock on this thing coming. We could end up with a northern stream shortwave passing by with a few flurries while the southern stream system never really gets picked up and ends up as a stretched out fragmented batch of old energy passing several hundred miles south of here. 🙂

          1. So as to what you see now and no I won’t hold you to it, do we have a shot a big storm, small storm or maybe no impact at all. Which would you go with now.

            1. Instinct is a smaller to possibly medium sized, fast-moving system with snow and/or mix Saturday night or Sunday (if it’s Sunday, it would be because it came out of the SW in the southern stream a little later).

              1. So the chance of getting no snow at all probably will not happen as we get snow just to what extent, correct.

                1. There is still a chance we see zippo from this threat, but I’d favor seeing something over nothing at this stage. Just not favoring a big something right now. I know that’s hedging and generalized but to be honest that’s all I feel comfortable with.

  134. That’s what I have been thinking TK. Most of the storms lately have started looking like big potential storms but give less precip when they get here.

    1. There are too many things that can “go wrong” with this set-up. This is not a great pattern for classic storms, yet for some reason many people seem to think it’s a classic in the making. It’s going to be really hard to make that happen.

    1. Again though we are still dealing with model solutions in which one of the major puzzle pieces is still over a data-starved region, and models that have had many issues resolving development and timing of systems in this particular pattern.

  138. Hi TK,

    Can you explain what a great pattern for a classic development would be? You keep saying we are not in that pattern yet. I know that we are cold and dry how does this pattern breakdown?

    1. The short answer is there is not enough amplitude and ability to phase 2 streams. The main flow is northern stream. We are seeing southern stream energy but it’s not a strong jet stream down there. It’s pieces of energy that drop southward from the northern stream and basically create a southern branch, but often cut off in the Southwest or just offshore. When they finally eject out, they encounter the dominant northern stream in which there is a mean trough in the Northeast, but it’s usually flat and fast and all it really does is take the energy and stretch it out. We have yet to see a classic low pressure area bomb out, negative tilt, slow down, max out, and really go to town with precip. & wind. The models have tried to develop a few – but we’re still waiting for one to actually verify. Will this be the one? Maybe. But I wouldn’t bet on it.

    2. I’m confused as to how it can still be called a dry pattern as we keep getting something since before thanksgiving.

  139. Hi all! Happy winter!

    I’m back on the blog because of I’ve also been seeing all the newscasts talking about a “big storm” this weekend, which is of particular interest to me because of a work event.

    Glad I can still count on TK to quell my fears in the early stages of storm hype. (Even though I will ALWAYS root for snow.)

    Hope you all enjoyed our little taste of snow today!

  140. Back from numerous meetings and discussion groups to find that our 3 headline making events have left exactly a .75 of snow” in my yard….granted i only saw 2 of them coming. Seems as if these 3 events delivered a grand total of 1-3″ combined throughout most of SNE. My wife tells me the media was outside standing on bare-pavement roads with cars driving by without restriction talking about how dangerous the conditions were. I will say everything did come in and stay a bit colder than I anticipated so some forecast error there. However, one consistent factor has been the overdone QPF forecasts for all models with each of the systems. NAM being its usual biggest culprit.

    Anyway now we are on to the next event. Time to start talking amounts on a Tuesday for what is a day 4 more likely day 5 event. Nice forecasting responsibility there. Right now I am thinking the streams remain split, models trend colder, and this ends up a more dry than white weekend.

    2. Again, we’re in the same camp at this early stage. Even when the streams come together lately it’s more like the northern stream taking whatever is left in the southern stream and whipping it around like it’s on one of those playground spinny things until it falls off… 🙂

      1. Well tk he said more dry than white. You seem to think some snow from are conversation. Again not holding you on anything. Boy your responding super fast tonight.

        1. Sitting right at my computer tonight. Was watching a very cheesy holiday movie with my son, now Bruins!

          1. Its reunion night in Boston sports. Celts in NJ vs Pierce and KJ and Iginla back in Calgary. Hope Bruins fare better than Celtics have this evening.

            1. I have SO many specials and movies. I’m a junkie. It’s insane. Almost embarrassing. Nevermind – it’s not embarrassing. I am proud of my holiday movie addiction. 😛

  141. Thanks JMA and TK. I will disagree with you on this one. I think they merge and provide a decent sized storm. Question is location and track which will ultimately determine a lot.

  144. From Joe Bastardi

    The reason I am confident about the first storm being mainly snow north of the Ohio river and Mason Dixon line, with crucial fights in the coastal plain, is that snow breeds cold and snow breeds snow. The snowcover makes the air over it colder, which affects the pressure, which in turn expands the dome of cold and also supplies a boundary where cold resists warm. Storms travel further south for one and the dome of cold, if only slightly larger, is big enough so when lifted, cools the air and makes what might have been rain or sleet snow. So the trend of the model is predictable give the cold around, and the fact that there is warmth close by for the storm to focus on. Bottom line I like the ECWMF on number 1 which goes from this Sat am

  145. Another 0.3 at Logan today. Just on these mini events alone, I’m going to be disqualified from the snow pool before New Years Day. 🙁 🙂

  146. Another 0.3 at Logan today. Just on these mini events alone, I’m going to be disqualified from the snow pool before New Years Day. 🙁 🙂

    1. The problem with that is the high is elongated and oozing southeastward like a spilled jar of slime. 🙂

      In the mean time the configuration of the developing low does not look good.

  148. i created this scale last winter.
    a 1-5 scale for road condtions
    1 some minor delays. some slick spots mainly on secondary road ways
    2. minor delays. slick spots on secondary roadways and on untreated main roads
    3. moderate delays. slick spots. snow/ice covered secondary road ways. avoid secondary road ways
    4 heivy delays. snow covered,ice covered roads. avoid roads.
    5 severe delays and road closures crews not able to keep up with snow and or ice. do not travel.
    snow event rating for 3 days out.(72 hours out )
    1. minor. less than 1 inch
    2 light event generally 1-4 inches add or minus 1-2 inches
    3 moderate snow generally 4-8 add or minus 1-2 inches
    4 heivy snowfall generally 8-12 minus 1 or 2 inches
    5 severe snowfall generally 12+ inches.

    Thinking on using this on my blog. What do you guys think? so im not really giving out actual amounts but giving a wide range of possibilites. i know this is what many channels use to do and now have left. I think it was a good way to give the viewers an idea what to expect about 3 days ahead. knowing that it is a wide range and it could be in that range.

    1. or should i just make 3 levels.
      level 1 less than 1 inch
      level 2: 1-6
      level 3: 6+
      wondering which one would be best for a for a 3 day out. range forcast

      1. The 5 level one is better but probably don’t need the “add or minus 1-2” .. It would be easier to upgrade or downgrade a level if you thought something was changing.

  149. I think its a good scale. Mine is a little different than yours and its only four levels
    1. Light snowfall Coating To 4 inches
    2. Moderate 5-10 inches
    3. Major 10 – 20 inches
    4. Extreme 20 plus inches.
    I like your commute index.

    1. To me too. But upper air charts look like the energy pieces, one originating in the northern stream and taking the southern route and the other piece dropping out of Canada won’t be completely onshore out west until Friday morning.

  151. It really looks like Boston could get rain, with well inland locations (495 west and north) receiving some accumulations. We shall see

  154. This storm for the weekend may be to juiced up, it is early ik, but early indications are that easterly wind changes all of the eastern 1/3 of Mass over to rain, I would actually want snow, but I don’t see the right set up unfortunately, again we shall see 😉

  155. 2 u’s, 2 k’s, 2 goals in just over a minute, 2 points!
    That’s how you play only 20 good minutes and steal a road win. 😉

  156. I have a feeling that this storm either goes off shore or it a weak system 4-8 inches perhaps. Of course I say weak as in compared to what models show now. I don’t think that mixing will be an issue in boston, perhaps southeastern mass, but yea either ots or not a big one, I hope I am wrong!

  158. Noaa.gov

    THEN FOR THIS WEEKEND BOTH ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES ALONG WITH
    DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SHOW REMARKABLE CLUSTERING
    REGARDING EAST COAST CYCLOGENESIS. UPPER AIR PATTERN SUPPORTS A
    STORMY PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH AN ENERGETIC SPLIT FLOW. UNFORTUNATELY
    THIS FLOW REGIME LENDS ITSELF TO LOW PREDICTABILITY ESPECIALLY AT
    THIS TIME RANGE GIVEN THE COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN STREAMS AND
    PHASING VERSUS NON PHASING. NEVERTHELESS ALL MODEL GUIDANCE
    SHOWING ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME RANGE.

    BOTH ENSEMBLES AND DETERMINISTIC GUID INDUCE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
    MID ATLC STATES LATER SAT…WITH PARENT LOW ACROSS THE OH VLY. ALL
    GUID THEN TRACKS COASTAL LOW NORTHEAST WITH ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES
    FARTHER NORTHWEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE /COASTAL HUGGER/ TO
    CAPE COD EARLY SUN. MEANWHILE BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS OFFER A COLDER
    SOLUTION WITH THE COASTAL LOW TRACKING OFF THE COAST AND PASSING
    JUST SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET SUNDAY. UNFORTUNATELY THESE FINER
    DETAILS WON/T BE RESOLVED FOR ANOTHER DAY OR TWO.

    HOWEVER THE LARGER SCALE FEATURES ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
    ARCTIC AIR WELL ENTRENCHED OVER NEW ENGLAND INTO EARLY SAT…
    COURTESY OF A SECOND ARCTIC FRONTAL PASSAGE SOMETIME FRI.
    CONFLUENT MID-UPR FLOW OVER THE MARITIMES AND SOUTHEAST QUEBEC
    WILL MAINTAIN ARCTIC HIGH PRES ACROSS THIS REGION…KEEPING DEEP
    COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS COMBINED WITH A
    MOIST SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD YIELDS
    A MODERATE TO HIGH THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER SAT INTO
    EARLY SUN.

    ITS WAY TOO EARLY FOR SPECIFIC AMOUNTS BUT GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE AND
    ORIGINS OF THE COLD AIR OVER NEW ENGLAND BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES
    COMBINED WITH COPIOUS SOUTHERN STREAM MOISTURE…SIGNIFICANT SNOW
    AND ICE ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER. GIVEN THE TIME RANGE
    HERE WE WILL BASE THIS FORECAST ON A SUPER BLEND OF ENSEMBLES/
    DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE ALONG WITH OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS YIELDS
    A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE FOR MUCH OF
    SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND…WITH HIGHEST RISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR. EVEN
    CLOSER TO THE COAST INCLUDING THE BOSTON-PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR A
    PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE /FRONT END THUMP/ IS POSSIBLE
    BEFORE ANY CHANGEOVER. STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND
    DISCUSSIONS!

    DRY BUT COLD WEATHER LIKELY FOLLOWS BEHIND THE STORM FOR LATER SUN
    INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

  159. Euro is cold and no rain. A little weaker. Wow Charlie you calling for rain !!! I am so surprised. None of the models indicate rain. As TK eluded storm its a little weaker and colder. Both gfs and euro still have over. .75 qpf.

  162. Euro ensembles are west of op run but further east than yesterday’s run so a little colder. Storm looks really strong on ensemble run.

  163. Hadi I could be wrong but I would disregard anything the models spit out today because still being three days out and all of the trouble that the models have been showing. I think we get snow but maybe not a bl

  164. Not sure what happened snow but not a blockbuster. I don’t think it will be more dry than white as jma mentioned.

    2. John it was a phrase to get a point across that I did not see the weekend as a complete white out, mega storm and was putting more emphasis on the northern stream shortwave and it’s associated moisture or lack there of. The real juice would have to come from the southern stream.

  165. agree with hadi- this should not trend warmer. Future runs should get colder. Colder does not necessarily mean more snow. Do we get phasing? Still suspecting a colder less snowy outcome with snow coming from snow shower activity from the northern shortwave. If we are to get a more robust system the northern shortwave needs to slow down

    1. No problem hadi, but be open to all of the possibilities that can happen. Hadi a weekend storm would be huge for me with Xmas coming so I’m rooting for it.

  167. Also hadi keep In mind that tk thinks it would be hard for a classic storm to form in this pattern. But as I type this ch5 is saying possible nor Easter with 6 or more. I guess as we get closer and look for model consistency than we get an idea.

  169. I also think a pretty decent sized storm. Not a blockbuster but 6+ is easily on the table with current set up.

  170. The blog has been updated and reflects a colder, smaller storm forecast at this stage. Models are already trending the direction expected, given the pattern. We’ll see how far it goes.

    JMA, I 100% agree with the statement about colder not necessarily meaning more snow.

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