Sunday Morning Update

128 Comments

9:55AM

Short summary now and updated forecast now .. full discussion later today on The Week Ahead post.

Storm is all but done. It was tough to nail it down but finally feel that it worked out mostly as expected with a few surprises, as they always seem to have. If you have snow to move please try to do it during the day today as anything leftover in areas that saw wetter snow or rain at the end of the storm will freeze solid tonight.

Upcoming… A dry, windy, and cold Monday as modified arctic air overtakes the region. Disturbance from the west redevelops as a new storm just offshore Tuesday afternoon and night, producing measurable snow (early call on this would be something in the 2-4 inch range but with the likely dry/fluffy nature of this system there could be a few higher amounts). Dry weather returns Wednesday as the small storm departs. A late week warm-up is still expected. A warm front passes Thursday night and leads the warmer air in, which hangs around for about a day until a cold front moves through by the start of next weekend.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Cloudy with spotty drizzle this morning. Partial clearing this afternoon. Temperatures starting out in the 20s in remote NW suburbs and interior southern NH ranging all the way to near 50 Cape Cod, staying steady to the NW but falling elsewhere. Wind NW 10-20 MPH and gusty.

TONIGHT: Partly cloudy. Lows 10-15 except 15-20 South Coast. Wind WNW 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 20s. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.

TUESDAY: Clouding over with snow afternoon and night with up to a few inches likely. Lows 10-18. Highs in the 20s.

WEDNESDAY: Clearing. Low 12. High 30.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Lows 13. High 32.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Rain showers late. Low 32. High 48.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers early. Low 30. High 39.

128 thoughts on “Sunday Morning Update”

  1. Sorry I couldn’t be with you after about 8:30 last night. I couldn’t sit and the
    computer all night and leave my wife alone in the living room.

    Went to bed about 1AM and we had I gues moderate snow at the time.

    Woke up to pounding SLEET at 4:05AM.

    Not sure when it flipped to rain.

    Just came in from shoveling as temps have dropped to 25.3 now.
    Was able to get it all up before it froze solidly. Put down layer of salt.

    Anyone with totals?

    I measured 6-6.5 this morning AFTER sleet and rain compression/melting.

    So I guess we must have had a solid 8 inches. Hadi, your thoughts?

    Enjoy the game!!

  2. Went to bed around midnight with 4″ woke up to 3″ of mashed potatoes. Not sure of an accurate measurement

  3. I came in around 7.5 after a little compacting. So OS forecast was pretty darn good.

    It’s freezing up big time right now. Heaviest snow I have ever shoveled. Unreal the weight.

    1. Yes, I think there was quite a bit of sleet in there and it soaked up a bunch
      of rain as well. I agree, forecast came in pretty darn good. 😀

  4. I know the Nam over does things, but it wants to give us about 6 inches of snow
    Tuesday/Tuesday night. Brings the clipper South of us and intensifies it. Sweet!

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013121512&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=063

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_057_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12&param=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=057&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&scrollx=0&scrolly=94

    GFS handles it similarly.

      1. It may not be all that overdone. What is overdone in precipitation may be made up by a very high snow:water ratio.

  6. Good morning everyone…..really fun reading all the comments, I love the winter blog. I live in Groveland, Ma in Essex county and measured 11 inches this morning….very fluffy snow with a thin layer of crust on top. Per JMAs call on the jackpot area I would say Essex county was probably the bullseye for this storm.

  7. re: Next event from the NWS:

    A MODEL BLEND OF ALL DATASETS
    OFFERS 0.25-0.40 INCHES WITH HIGHEST TOTALS ACROSS EASTERN MA.

    This is the type of situation that can offer a Sneak Attack We shall see.

  8. Tuesday’s system is not slush or heavy snow not sure why that would be brought up. These systems can over produce so it’s important to watch.

      2. Hopefully, they measure before 7am, since snow totals (pack) would have been lowered by rainfall at that time.

  10. What the heck happen to the temps! I thought it was suppose to be warm all day??? Hope I don’t need an ice-pick to clear the sidewalk and driveway!

    1. I don’t think anyone ever thought that or said that? Did they? Frankly, I was surprised in the slightest.
      😀

  11. Please no hype for the Tuesday storm 🙂 this past storm I heard people on here talking about don’t go on roads after 6pm last night, it was a nice little storm but I was hearing maybe a foot just a few days ago with this past storm, lets not get ahead of ourselves, and only pick the snowy models, that’s a weather blog, again after the rain smushed it down, we ended up with 3 inches 🙂 good day all mostly everyone did great this past storm except for the very few

    1. charlie I was stating that it would be best to not travel after 6pm last night north and west of boston. not for you so yeah take a chill. I knew your specific town would some how not be effected . but the roads around here were bad for a good period of time and now are just getting icy expecially secondary roads. Which is why im posting a level 2 road conditions on my 1-5 scale for today do to refreezing.

      1. Matt…you did good. You are correct that many roads were nasty. Thanks to your post, I called my daughter who was out shopping around Uxbridge/Bellingham area and told her what you said. I talked to her a few minutes ago and she said it was very slow going even at 6:00 as no roads were treated. She asked me to thank you

    2. Charlie,

      This is a weather blog. We discuss model output. If it’s over done it’s over done. If you choose to call it hype, that is your prerogative, BUT it’s not hype to the rest of us.

      This particular storm worked out pretty much as expected. We were
      “hoping” for things to happen, but knew those things were unlikely.

      Have a good day and enjoy the Pats.

        1. Charlie – that actually is totally untrue. I kept track of predictions made by everyone here for the two non-events and yesterday’s storm. It was a suggestion that really interested me. As you know, I like to document things just to see trends. The first two non-events, we know who nailed them and who didn’t.

          This storm nearly everyone was absolutely correct except for you who underestimated the storm. I have an excel spreadsheet I can show you with cuts and pastes of the latest predictions by most (there is always a chance I missed some)

      2. I consider it hype, this is no offense to you or me or anybody, but when I’m part of a blog that I have to sorta filter through a lot to get the real accumulations I feel like its a bit crazy, I continue to filter through all the post, it’s ok, great job as always 🙂

        1. Charlie – I had not trouble filtering through to get the predictions by those who made them – see my comment above. IMHO Discussion is a huge part of what this blog is all about.

    4. Charlie, part of this being a weather blog is talking about potentials too. There is a potential for this clipper to intensify rapidly Tuesday afternoon/evening. Just where that happens could mean the difference between a minor or moderate storm. We will also talk about the potential warm up later in the week and the chance for rain with that. You need to respect everyone’s view and sometime times it doesn’t come across that way in your tone.

    5. 8 inches here. Rain didn’t smush anything up this way .. just created a 1 inch crust atop the fluff.

      And I don’t see anybody hyping Tuesday. I see them offering opinions. I am doing the same right now when I say that even tho I put a 2-4 early call on it, the fact that we’ll be dealing with a high ratio and some measurable precipitation means a VERY fine line between 2 and 6 inches. From me, that’s not hype, it’s meteorology, whether I end up being right or wrong.

  14. road is a ice rank now, and got about 9 inches of snow before a change over to freezing drizzle
    Down to about 8.5 inches of snow. Those power lines are gonna struggle if there is any strong winds as snow and ice has built on them and has be some what concerned for power outages.
    are all the weather models over doing the tuesday storm because most of them is giving at least 5 inches of snow to my area. I wish this snow will stay for at least christmas but im not sure do to the warm up this up coming weekend and i think we see the “snow killer” fog later this week on top of some hievy rain

  15. Question – for final snowfall amounts, are measurements usually taken prior to the onset of any rain or sleet? Otherwise, it just doesn’t seem like true “snowfall” totals.

    1. That’s a great question. I suppose it depends on the person who reports
      the measurement.

      Logic would dictate as soon as the changeover occurs, take the measurement.

      1. I was wondering the same. I’m wondering how many measurements are true as most places changed over in the night. We have 8.2 but there was an inch of frozen snow on the top and I suspect that was definitely compressed.

        OS thanks for posting totals. Ill record them later when I have a minute. There were some significant numbers.

    2. i made two. one before and one after. before 9.5 after 8.5 to 9 inches. on the ground 8.5 on the snowboard

    1. actually it is down from the previous runs. it was showing about 6-8 inches across much of the area north and west of boston now showing 3-6

    1. I don’t doubt u hadi, I just think its funny that 6 inches fell to the east of you, and 3-5 inches just south of you, you guys must have been in the sweet spot, like Worcester,

  21. Quick post. It’s like an ice rink out there on the sidewalks. Careful, everyone. As OS mentioned, the clipper system may outdo last night’s kitchen sink in terms of snowfall. This, by the way, is more common than you think. I can remember quite a few times when the bigger overall system left us with a lot of crud, but a mini system a couple of days later surprised us with some pleasant snowfall. Whatever falls Tuesday will be of the `pleasant’ variety, unlike the stuff we’re dealing with this morning.

  22. 25.2 here was 38 at 7am. Shoveled driveway and now left with a sheet of ice. My wife slid down the driveway and almost into the street leaving for work.

    1. Oh dear – is she ok?? Mac and Derek left a coating of snow on the driveway. Our neighbor chopped all down to the pavement. It’s always a tough decision which way to go. I like the coating because it gives traction but if it freezes, all bets are off.

      1. Yes she is fine. She was able to stop just before she backed out into the road. I got it down to wet pavement but then it froze!

        1. Glad she is ok – that is scary. We have had our cars parked in the driveway one minute; and then when we look out, they are in the middle of the street

  23. OS I don’t use that GFS Snow map you use. I would be interested in learning more about how it interprets the GFS snow tool. The 12z GFS only puts down about .25 in Boston during a 12 hour period and by its standard snow algorithms and the resolution of the model its almost impossible for it to produce a 20:1 ratio. GFS usually cycles back to a 10:1-13:1 range which is close to climo. Please keep posting them. I am fascinated by its interpretation. FYI-I am in on something more than currently forecasted for Tuesday. Especially inside 495. Also SREF may be way to go with this upcoming event. Usually performs best with these types of vigorous northern stream shortwaves in SNE

  24. Bishop Feehan HS web cam shows a pretty wimpy snowcover in Attleboro.

    There is only one explanation: Charlie has a giant hair dryer mounted on a pick up truck and drives around that area during the storm. 😀

  25. One more thing on the Charlie discussion.

    He runs a landscaping business and does snow plowing in the Winter, so
    It’s understandable that he requires the most accurate snowfall expectations.

    BUT Charlie, as far as I know the only true Mets on this blog are TK and JMA,
    so what are you talking about sifting through all the reports.

    If you don’t like what is posted here, go hire yourself a professional service. 😀 😀

    2. There r 2 true mets, and hundreds of bloggers, the bloggers a day later can begin to skue things a bit, not necessary u os, but there out there, like Tk said we can move on,

  26. Talking to a few in the area mets, I can confirm Hadi’s snow report.

    So we all got what we got. Time to move on. 🙂

    My neighbor actually DID come out with the snowblower. We had a solid 5.5 inches on the driveway and this is after shoveling over 2 inches last night, so easily 8 here.

    I ended up being a little low on the snow forecast for my area, but reasonable on my expectations of not too many foot plus amounts. The coast and south of Boston was tricky because it was all about the timing and location of the boundary at low levels and the warm air aloft.

    JMA would probably agree though this was not the toughest storm ever to forecast, it ranks up there in terms of being a trying one in terms of the little details.

  27. And finally A thought on clippers in general.

    I don’t think many of you knew or could remember a broadcast Met
    from the 60s (Channel 7 ironically) named Roland Boucher. Here’s a paper
    he published in the AMS Journal.

    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0450%281962%29001%3C0127%3ASIOSTV%3E2.0.CO%3B2

    Anyway, I used to work with him at Air Force Cambridge research Labs.

    He was telling me about a Winter where a series of clippers would drop down and
    out just South of New England, doing practically nothing. Then all of a sudden near
    Nantucket they BLEW UP and dumped a foot of snow on the Boston Area.

    All I am saying is, every now and then, these funky little buggers can give us a DUMP
    of snow. Not often, but it does happen.

    Charlie, this is NOT a forecast NOR is it HYPE. It is a cautionary word, that is all.

    😀

  28. I for one don’t hype. I have never in life made up anything and I resent the thought that you think I did. I think our analysis was very good. If you don’t like it find another blog better suited for your needs. I am done going back and forth with you Charlie. You are the only one who missed this storm. People are tired of your tone. It’s not what you say but rather the way you say it.

    That’s it from me about you Charlie. Enjoy the blog for what it is.

  29. I started to add the totals for each county and then average them but noticed that a lot of the totals were taken before or at midnight.

    TK thanks for the answer on whether the snow compacted. So I officially measured 8.2 here. Not bad. But like a ton of bricks to move. Glad your neighbor helped you. Feel better!!

    1. It compacted more in some areas than others. Your measurement sounds good from what I know of the area.

      As tough as it was now, waiting until late day or evening would be worse as it gets colder along with more wind chill.

  30. TK-Certainly not tough to forecast. For me it was more having the will to recognize that this particular system was going to behave differently than the climatic set up would normally allow it to. By late Wednesday I pretty comfortable in predicting a moderate impact winter storm with a general 6″ type snowfall. Ended up being pretty true to form for most areas.

    A note on measurements. Yes they are subject to great variability both due to the vagaries of mother nature and of course the human element too. We used to have a running joke the NWS WFO’s would always be able to dig up one clown to send in a report that would make their forecast verify.(Of course now if you read a zone from the NWS they make it so broad they can’t be wrong. I saw one MA zone yesterday that was 4-11″ and there was one out of Little Rock last week was 1-6″.) There is a famous bad measurement from the Bronx of 22″ a few years ago where no one else in the Brookhaven forecast area had reported more than 14″ yet it was widely reported by the media that the Bronx got 22″ of snowfall. Remember many weather enthusiasts are snow lovers and they tend to want to magnify the impact of a storm.

    Usually I look for consistency within geographic areas and if something is an extreme outlier I throw it out. Truthfully, nothing reported here seems to be inconsistent with the general 5-8″. So I am not sure what all the fuss is about.

    2. I think sometimes people forget that variations in snowfall are on average 10 times more sensitive than rainfall, for obvious reasons.

      I get 0.20 inch and you get 0.50 inch rainfall, and nobody bats an eyelash.

      But when I suddenly had 2 inches of snow when you had 5, and everybody wants to know why such a difference.

    3. Only one blogger used the 5-8 range ………………..what an intuitive individual she must be 😉 If I knew her I’d say she did it on a whim because everyone else was using even numbers. I wonder who she might be 😆

      That being said – JMA you are absolutely correct – everyone did an excellent job – kudos to all!

  31. I think looking at everything at this moment for Tue, I would say 2 inches widespread, isolated 3 and 4 inch amounts in a few locales, it’s only about .25 of liquid, so we shall see if any changes happen going forward

  33. A few thoughts on the week upcoming…

    -Tomorrow is going to be a tough commuting day because people are not used to snow being on the ground and in piles, especially in the areas that got around or over 5 inches. As well, anywhere that mixed/changed has lots of ice to deal with and the ground will hold onto it for several days. That will add to hazards. It will be important for everybody to keep these things in mind when walking and driving.

    -Tuesday’s event looks like a classic little storm that wants to be big, but is just moving along enough not to dump on us. I am quite comfortable with the idea of 3-6 inches right now after reviewing the 12z data. I wanted to hesitate saying that before seeing the Euro, but I’ll take that small leap of faith.

    -I like the GFS’s timing of the pattern this week. I think we warm front ourselves on Thursday and a cold front quickly following by late Friday (this is even a bit faster than my previous timing). That doesn’t leave a whole lot of time for a warm-up. We don’t dive back into Arctic air right away, but seasonable cold will be back by the weekend.

    -It’s a week away, but can see a potential snow event next Sunday followed by a shot of cold air just after that.

    -I think anybody that has over 3 inches of snow on the ground is virtually a lock for a white Christmas, regardless of what happens late next week. By tomorrow, that snowcover is frozen solid and with the low sun angle it is not going anywhere.

    1. VFM early thoughts are 4-7 for Tuesday. 5-8 at the moment seems a tad high 😉

      Seriously though, thanks for the warning re driving. I hadn’t thought of that and will pass it along.

    2. Thanks Tk, I would say after the compaction there’s about 2 inches in north attleboro, and maybe 3 inches in Wrentham

    1. But the sunrises moving later and later at a greater rate mean the shortest daylight is still 1 week away. Always thought it was interesting how that worked.

      2. Days r pretty much as short as they get, I think the 21st is only like 4 or 5 min’s shorter, but the sunrise will be 4 min’s later than today’s sunset

  35. Does anybody know if I should start salting my driveway and my stairs now? Or should I wait a little bit until it gets dark?

    1. It can’t hurt to do it early. But it may need re-treatment in the morning due to how cold it will be tonight.

  37. I saw that great catch. Patriots with all the injuries the number 1 seed in the AFC at the moment. I am hoping Vikings wins and Cowboys beat Packers at home later.

  38. The catch by Michael Homanawanui was one of the best catches I have
    ever seen, not only one handed, but the ball was behind him and he reached
    back with one hand and hauled it in. INCREDIBLE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    re: clipper
    We get some precip as it dives SE and then some while moving E South of us
    and yet more while moving NE off shore.

    I’m liking TK’s take of 3-6 inches.

    Even still it needs to be watched. 😀 😀 😀

  39. Sun is breaking through the clouds and helping some of the ice issues where it is hitting my driveway 🙂

  40. That was a very tough storm to work last night. In my thinking the snow had a hard time giving into the rain. A good solid six inches if not more in my neck of boston. Time to rest I just got home from a 25 hr shift, I’m beat. Good job forcasting the storm.

    1. Nice moderate snowfall event. I would expect winter weather advisories to be issued if the current model trends hold.

  46. I have updated the blog and posted The Week Ahead a little early!
    Watching the end of this game, heading out to food shopping (if they left anything in the stores for me), enjoying a holiday movie and some music, then watching Survivor finale with a couple friends (yup I’ve always been a big fan of that show). Starting tomorrow I’m nonstop holiday music/movies/specials for the rest of the run-up to Christmas. I love it!

  50. Ugh!!! Unfortunately no ones gonna feel bad for the Patriots bc of the historic amount of injuries, but tough loss, team is giving everything they got, today it wasn’t enough, onto Baltimore, Go Patriots!!

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