The Week Ahead

447 Comments

3:50PM

The coming week will feature cold & wind, a little more snow, a little more cold, a brief warm-up, then a transition back to seasonable cold with a possible snow threat on the weekend (don’t read too much into this yet – it’s way off).

Behind our messy weekend storm, high pressure moving in and low pressure moving away will funnel gusty winds and cold air across the region Monday, feeling more like the middle of January. Sunshine will be plenty, but ineffective.

A clipper-type low pressure area will move fairly quickly out of the Midwest and into Northeast Tuesday, redeveloping off the coast before scooting away toward the Canadian Maritime Provinces. The rate of deepening of this new low will determine how much snow falls. It will be snow, as temperatures will not be an issue. The current thinking is a light to moderate snowfall (3-6 inches on average) Tuesday afternoon and night.

Low pressure moves away Wednesday and other than some lingering snow showers with a surge of cold air coming in, it will be a sun/clouds and gusty winds kind of day.

A warm front approaches on Thursday, which will be a chilly day with increasing cloudiness. Not expecting any precipitation from the warm front at this time.

A brief warm-up on Friday behind the warm front and ahead of a cold front, which will probably produce some rain showers, and give us a chance to clean up any lingering snow and ice in places we don’t want it to be, though not nearly enough to melt the snowcover anywhere it was above about 3 inches from the weekend storm.

The cold front that passes Friday will slow down just offshore on Saturday and allow a low pressure wave to ride up along it. The track of that low and how deep we get back into seasonably cold air will determine if precipitation reaches the region and what form it will be in. It’s too early to really be sure. At this very early stage I’ll lean toward a rain/mix the further southeast you are, and snow the further northwest you are, but that’s just more basic meteorology than thorough scientific analysis at this stage.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Clearing. Lows drop below 10 in snowcovered valleys to the 10s elsewhere. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs in the 20s. Wind WNW 15-25 MPH gusting to 40 MPH. Wind chill as low as 10.

MONDAY NIGHT: Clear evening. Increasing high clouds overnight. Lows 10-15. Diminishing wind.

TUESDAY: Thickening overcast. Snow afternoon and evening. Early accumulation estimate 2-6 inches of light and fluffy snow. Highs in the 20s. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

WEDNESDAY: Chance of snow showers early otherwise increasing sun. Low 15. High 30.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Low 18. High 33.

FRIDAY: Partly sunny. Late-day rain showers. Low 28. High 46.

WEEKEND: Mostly cloudy. Snow/mix possible Saturday night and Sunday. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

447 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  1. Thanks TK. I can dig another 3-6. Nam qpf is high and as you said cut it in half. These clippers are very sneaky depending in where they develop.

  4. Man I just logged in after shoveling and Hadi tells me the Pats lost. I forgot they were on! Damn. Anyway, awful snow today…icy, heavy, and a pain to move even with the snowblower. I am hoping Tuesday isn’t too bad…funny, I am already running out of room.

    1. You forgot the Patriots were on? It’s only once a week WW, always Sunday, anyways no disrespect at all, but to forget football is played on Sunday eh 🙂

      1. They don’t always play on Sunday. Sometimes they play on Thursday, or Monday. Sometimes people have other things going on. 🙂

        1. I understand that, but u forget the patriots play on Sunday? They play one time on thu, and 1 time on Mon, every single other game is on Sunday, the bottom line, and it’s ok perfectly ok, but I would make a guess ww doesn’t follow very close, again that’s ok, just saying 🙂

          1. How do you know that? Just because people miss a game doesn’t mean they don’t love the team or the game. You just assume things of people and you have no right to judge them. Football is not the only thing in life.

      1. I take it your not much of a football guy is the comment giving when somebody forgets, can’t or whatever to watch the pats. And also why were you at a Christmas party last night and not out working the storm.

        1. I’m in pools, play the card etc but watched maybe 15 minutes of football today. Does that mean I’m not a football guy.now ww is scratching his head and probably saying what, your good ww but you know where I’m going with this Charles.

    3. WW mac and Derek said the exact same thing. Even the snowblower had trouble. It actually threw out chunks rather than a steady stream. My grandson said they looked like fairies flying into the air 🙂

  7. Clipper should be a 2-4, 3-5 I’m thinking with 5″ being the exception. Looking at it as insurance for a white Christmas. 🙂

  8. I saw on one of the weather pages on fb that the 12z euro was showing a monster storm on december 22 to 24. The snowfall was 12-18 inches. If only that confirmes!

  9. Charlie says:
    December 15, 2013 at 5:41 PM
    Ugh!!! Unfortunately no ones gonna feel bad for the Patriots bc of the historic amount of injuries, but tough loss, team is giving everything they got, today it wasn’t enough, onto Baltimore, Go Patriots!!
    Reply

  10. I see a widespread .20-.30 of liquid precip falling between Tue noon-Tue midnight ish, 2-4 inches is what I’m going with for the Tue event 🙂

  11. Thinking on Tuesday right now

    Precip starts early to mid afternoon, it will impact evening commute and continue into the evening hours.

    A public forecast right now would be worded accumulating snowfall for Tuesday afternoon and evening with a moderate accumulation Mass Turnpike North and a lighter accumulation South of the Mass Pike and west of 495. Expect impact to the evening commute.

    A more detailed speculation would be below:

    Areas North of Boston such as Northeastern Middlesex County and Essex County could be in a 4-6″ range. Boston, Metrowest and South down to the 495/95 Interchange 3-4″ range. South the interchange 2-3″, which includes the coastal communities of Norfolk county and down south to just north of the Canal. Worcester County and Northern RI and NW CT would also be in that 2-3″ range. West of Worcester into the CT River Valley of MA and CT, along with Berkshire County 1-2″ Cape, Islands, and Southern RI, and Southern CT would be in the 1-2″ range.

  13. Thank you. Wankum has 3-6 for boston down through south shore. I also hear possible something for next Saturday/Sunday. I remove snow so I’m good with Tuesdays event but need a miracle on a miss for next weekend as I need to do Christmas buying. I still keep going back to that October snow in Syberia. I really believe I have a shot at my prediction of 80inches.

    1. next weekend looks much warmer and would probably be rain to breif snow if anything. As it looks right now

  14. Thursday and Friday projected high temps to be in the upper 40s although this is not reflected in tks update. I wonder if that could play a role if there is a weekend event.

    1. Thursday’s and Friday’s temps won’t play a role in the weekend. And I don’t expect it to get out of the 30s Thursday ahead of the warm front. The cold front should be through in time to bring cold enough air for at least a shot of snow on the weekend, depending on how moisture is configured.

      1. Call me in a favor and please keep it away. Although this is great timing as it goes a long way helping with Christmas.

  16. Potential Clipper system Tuesday`has jogged my memory.

    Therefore, If I may and not to offend anyone, I am forced to break
    out my ancient, formulated by myself before the sophisticated computer models, OLD SALTY CLIPPER AXIOM:
    Clippers ALWAYS track farther North than forecasted, except when
    least expected, when they travel Farther South.

    Here’s hoping it doesn’t come into play. 😀 😀

    1. Here’s a better one that requires a great deal of wisdom: Clippers always track exactly where they track. 😉

      3. So my take from you both is they track north unless they don’t and where they track is where they track.

        And I thought I was confused before 😉

  17. That system for next weekend has been on the models for a while now. Originally looked like all rain and warm, but trending colder.

  19. Here you go – forgot my computer was still up and running:

    John 80.0
    Hadi 68.8
    Cat966g 65.0
    shotime 58.0
    Tjammer 57.7
    North 52.6
    Shreedhar 52.0
    Scott77 51.0
    Longshot 48.0
    Vicki 43.3
    kane 41.6
    Matt S 39.5
    TK 38.8
    Haterain 38.0
    JimmyJames 36.2
    Charlie 35.4
    rainshine 35.0
    WeatherWiz 32.1
    Joshua 32.0
    Philip 31.7
    AceMaster 30.5
    Old Salty 28.5
    Retrac 27.7
    Sue 24.2
    Tom 19.4

    1. I’m sorry jj, I didn’t watch but saw some highlights, one of the analyst during said that dallas hasn’t won a thing for 20 something yrs, and won’t win for another 20 something yrs 🙂 r they 6-8 now?

      1. 6-8..Boy you don’t know the current standings?…not much of a football fan are you?

        You mentioned that you are in a lot of pools…you must be leading in the “how many people can I p-ss off in the WHW forum”

              1. Of course your not Charlie you are what you are and it’s not very pleasant. I pity your employees.

      2. Really Charlie? Do you want people to come say that when your team loses. Your team hasn’t won in 10 years and probably won’t win again for a while. What do you do once Brady is gone ? Not win for another 10-15 years probably.

        1. Lol it’s dallas hadi, you gotta be 25 yrs old to Remember the last time they won, dallas is not New England 🙂

            1. Huh? Rude? I have no idea what your talking about DS, I just stated a fact lol 🙂 you can call my team cheaters, it’ll be ok DS

              1. Yes. Rude. You’re a button pusher and it’s disrespectful. From here on out, I won’t engage with you. We root for the same team. And, frankly, like it or not, Bill B used to be a cheater. It’ll be ok, Charlie.

          2. You forgot how bad this franchise used to be. It’s really sad how mean you can be to people.

            My recommendation is just to
            ignore what you have to say bc you clearly are trying to irritate people.

  22. To JMA, re: Instant Weather Maps Snowfall Maps

    Here is what I found:

    How is snowfall calculated?
    Unlike most variables we offer maps for, snowfall is not explicitly included in the model output provided by the NCEP server. To get around this, InstantWeatherMaps.com uses the Evan Kuchera method to calculate instantaneous snowfall ratios. A specially weighted average is then performed, and the result is multiplied by the precipitation over the requested time period to get the snowfall.

    I also found this by Googling:

    Accum Snowfall using sing Mr. Evan Kuchera algorithm for snow to liquid ratio – NEW (2/14/06)
    Contact: Evan Kuchera
    0.5 degree isobaric GFS GRIB data from NCEP.
    The snowfall accumulation algorithm used on these charts is as follows:
    1) Find the maximum temperature in the lowest 500 hPa in degrees K (MAXTMP)
    2) If MAXTMP is greater than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RATIO) is 12.0 + 2.0*(271.16-MAXTMP)
    3) If MAXTMP is less than 271.16K, then the liquid equivalent ratio (RATIO) is 12.0 + (271.16-MAXTMP)
    The 3-hourly snowfall (SNOW) is RATIO multiplied by the three hour liquid precipitation total. The accumulated snowfall (ACCUM_SNOW) is the sum of all the SNOW values up to that projection time.

    Sorry, but that is about the best I can do.

    Interesting, eh? 😀

      2. The West Roxbury report was received at 12:30AM, while it was still snowing pretty good. They no doubt added to that. Always remember to check the times as NWS does not take out the incomplete reports. 🙂

  26. Out actually doing a quick errand, the back roads have a little black ice on them, be cautious if you have to go out, hitting the sack for the night, busy week ahead with my grandmothers funeral and family visiting plus this snow event Tuesdays 🙂

    2. Sorry to hear about your Grandmother Charlie. We lost my Wife’s earlier this year unexpectedly. Was she part of the Briggs family?

    1. I think its overdone as well. Eastern parts of SNE look to get the most snowfall from this clipper. I would expect winter
      weather advisories posted tomorrow as this looks to be a solid advisory level event at the moment.

  28. Charlie the cowboys are 7-7. They are one game behind the Eagles. If were one game behind the Eagles when we play them in two weeks at home we win that game we win the NFC East and go to the playoffs. If we don’t make the playoffs I am going to look back to this loss against the Packers and against the Lions when we had those games won but couldn’t put them away.

    2. My wife says I need to get less stress, and make a new yrs resolution of being patient and nice and ik she’s right, sorry again 🙂

  30. re: NAM

    The only thing I am taking from that run is a TREND to wetter, which I like very much.
    Let’s see IF it stays trending that way. I’d like to see the other models trend that way as well. 😀 😀

    That was one COOL SNOW MAP for the NAM. 😀 😀 😀

  35. Gfs has about 2-4. But at this range and with this type of storm the gfs probably isn’t great. NAM is overdone so split the middle and get 3-6 based on the models.

  37. I think the nam is the way to go, the steadiest snow looks to be between tue 6pm – Wed 2am, goodnight everyone

  38. Line of snow showers and maybe even a squall dropping through eastern MA as of 2AM. Not everybody will get them but a few fresh dustings/coatings of snow will make any icy areas hidden and a bit more dangerous. This is associated with a weak arctic boundary.

  39. Saw some snow maps on TV this am. Todd has snow beginning at 11 am and heavier around commute time, say 4 pm. The BZ map has less than an inch for outer Cape; 1-3″ for southeast MA; and a 3-6″ area that cuts through Boston and goes north and west.

  40. JR on Channel 5 with a very different snow map, putting more snow in Boston and along coast … like 5″. He had less snowfall north and west.

  41. Some different snow maps out there. Euro came in much drier than previous run. Not sure we can get 3-6 based on the qpf

  44. Pats in the playoffs will be like a clipper low, comes in moisture starved but lots of potential. That potential is realized only if the right ingredients are in place. Unfortunately, like most clippers, they will fall short, coming in too little too late, leaving us all dissappointed in the end.

  46. Morning,
    I didn’t like reading this from the NWS:

    MODELS STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE AND
    SEPARATION OF TWO DISTINCT SHORT WAVES ROTATING THROUGH NEW ENGLAND DURING THIS TIME.

    Here we go. You know what is going to happen.
    NOT MUCH.

    I wonder if 12Z NAM holds true or not.

    Euro run sucked, which means DROP the qpf.

    Seriously, it’s looking more like a 1-3, if that.

    C’MON NAM do your thing and be correct.

  48. CMC drops about .4 to .6 inches of liquid
    UKMET about .3 to .4

    Once again the models don’t know what the bleep is going on with
    Mother Nature.

  52. be interesting if the nam keeps that 6+ inches of snow doubt it but just maybe.anxiously waiting the next nam. nam actually has been consistant.

  55. Ok, I am LOST…..

    At what level does the NWS mean when they say there are TWO short waves?????

    Here is the 500MB chart at 39 hours:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=039&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_039_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

    I don’t see 2 there????

    Here is the 700MB chart. Don’t see 2 there????

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=039&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_039_700_rh_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=700_rh_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

    Not for Nothing, But there appears to be tremendous Support in the upper atmosphere for this system to develop.

    In fact, I am now wondering if this thing has a chance (small to be sure) to BOMB OUT?????

        1. Gotcha. Yup, I agree, however, there is a small chance
          it could bomb sooner. Perhaps something like 5%. 😀 😀

  57. I still think 3-6 is a good bet. We need to just see where it develops. But don’t sleep in this being stronger than forecasted. Could also easily go the other way.

    1. As I posted above, plenty of support in the upper levels.

      It will just take awhile for it to soak up all of the available Atlantic
      moisture. “Sometimes” it does so quickly. Will it this time? Not likely, but
      I’m always watching for the surprises.

      It will probably BUST on us.

        1. John,

          With all of the current information, 3-5 sounds as
          good as anything. Still subject to change, of course.

          And yes, I said bust for tomorrow. Not a forecast, just a possibility at this point.

          ALL systems seem to point to some snow, nothing
          major. A couple of inches to “perhaps” up to 5 or 6 inches.

          We shall see. We’ll be watching future runs. 😀 😀

  60. Here we go again, about 10 different snow maps out there, its like trying to pick out the best car from a used dealer lot.

    1. And worse still the models are like used car salesmen. You don’t know who
      to believe! Best not to believe any of them! 😀 😀

          1. They all seem to have the range from 2/3 – 5/6 across the majority of the area. 7 got a bit more specific with the larger amounts in Boston. Hard to tell with 4 and 5 whether larger in Boston or west. 4 and 5are basically same for SS and cape. Ch 5 has a bit more on SS and Cape

      1. Vicki, I can’t speak for Hadi, but imho, YES in this case, MORE
        for Boston than West and specifically MORE in Boston than
        in Framingham. 😀 😀 😀

        1. Thanks, OS – I like the way 7 structured its map because typically we read smaller amounts in east to larger amounts in west. You sure got a faster accumulation in Boston Saturday than we did as well.

  66. Nws tweet

    @NWSBoston: Tech: Early thoughts – 12z NAM seems too far NW w/sfc low track (Cape Cod Canal) & too robust. Current fcst looks good right now.

  67. If they think the low will track further south than wouldn’t it make sense there should be more snow in and south of boston and not north and west?

    1. That’s a nice plume of moisture coming right into SE MA from the ocean. Hopefully that timing is off on that map, right at rush hour.

    1. FWIW,

      The SREF has probabilities of great than an inch an hour, so then the
      possibility exists of this intensifying faster than expected and thus MORE
      snow.

      Just opens the door a wee bit. We need to be on guard. MOST likely it
      goes pretty much according to forecast, but we must not be complacent,
      just in case.

  72. I just read all the comments and clicked on thelinks you guys posted and I am somewhere between 1 ” and 8″ depending on what I read. Only thing everyone is consistent onis that rush hour could be a real mess.

  74. Interesting event because ….. unlike the weekend storm and most in general ……. while there is always precipitation generating, there is usually some to track well in advance of when it gets to your area. In other words, I could have looked Saturday morning and see all the heavy precip in the mid Mississippi Valley moving this way.

    With this, the precip needed for our region’s snow will literally be being generated overhead or very, very close to us.

    I think the time period of 3-6 am tomorrow morning might be telling from a radar perspective. If there’s a return of echoes generating down around NYC, perhaps northern NJ or Long Island, I think I’ll be encouraged. If its more over Albany, western New England or something north of the Mass Pike, then I think it will be a sign that southern and central NH and ME are in for it.

  75. 12Z CMC (GEM-REG), which goes out 48 hours.

    qpf is only .3 to .4. Still supports the general 3-5 or 3-6 inches I Suppose, but
    NOT very encouraging. System remains fairly weak and doesn’t really get going
    until the Maritimes (Nova Scotia).

    UKMET and then the Euro to come. 😀

  77. What are some of the smaller scale features that will affect the position and/or strength of the clipper as it approaches our area?

  79. So looks like boston is in on the action again I see. Jr said about 4 inches for the city and said alot of places will be at that number 3-4 inches.

  81. Looking at the 12Z Euro (wihout exact qpf figures), looks like at Least
    6 solid inches for Boston, perhaps a bit more. Clearly this is a MORE Robust run
    than previously. I anxiously await the qpf and snowfall figures from Hadi.

    This run was most encouraging.

    John,
    Right now, Boston looks to get more than the 4 inches JR was predicting. 😀

  82. I do think the warm-up this weekend and rain will wipe away most if not all snow from areas that received 4 inches or less from the past storm. Also, I’m not seeing much cold prior to Christmas. Mostly west/southwest flow, which suggests ridging. We’ll see. I’m not a fan of Highs to our south and east, but we may be in for a pattern change that involves a lot of that, with only occasional brief bursts of arctic air.

    1. Thanks oldsalty. I tend to disagree Joshua. After a brig warmup this weekend it stays cold I believe till after Xmas than we thaw it out the month of January before going back to cold and snow for feb and march. I had predicted a snowless January and January thaw. I may be wrong on the snow part as we seem to be in a stormy period.

  84. I am guessing that any snow melt we get at the end of the week if it warms up enough will not help the draught at all – it will be more of an evaporation process?

  85. Hi Old Salty,

    I was reading one of your posts from yesterday and you mentioned the name “Roland Boucher” who was an on-air met on Channel 7 back in the 60s. I have never even remotely heard of him.

    What part of the 1960s decade was he on?…Just curious 🙂

    Here are the “old time” mets I remember or at least heard of:

    Don Kent
    Bob Copeland
    (Dr.)Fred Ward
    Bill Hovey
    E.B. Rideout (way before my time)
    Ray Walker (my grandfather used to talk about him alot)

    1. I didn’t recognize the name either. I do recognize your first four, however. Dr Fred Ward – I’d forgotten that name ! Also Norm McDonald (sp?)

    2. Hi Philip,

      The mid-late 60s for certain. I worked with him from 1967 to 1969.
      He was on the 6PM and 11PM broadcast on channel 7.

      He also did a daily radio broadcast on the big Framingham station at the time.
      WKOX (WROR-FM, a radio station (105.7 FM) licensed to Framingham, Massachusetts, United States, which used the call sign WKOX-FM from 1959 until 1971)

      He resided in Natick, MA.

      He was a great guy.

        1. Some more:

          Mr. Roland J. Boucher joined our staff, also in June, as a
          full time research meteorologist. Mr. Boucher obtained his M.S. degree in meteorology at M.I.T., where he also served as research associate and instructor in meteorology. His experience in the field of synoptic meteorology is quite extensive, ranging from forecasting for transoceanic airlines to District Forecaster at the U. S. Weather Bureau’s forecast center at Boston. More recently Mr. Boucher was a research
          meteorologist on the staff of the Mt. Washington Observatory, where he contributed to research on icing and to studies of particle-size distribution in clouds and precipitation. He has also served as meteorological consultant in the field of applied meteorology. Since July he has been serving part time
          as consultant to the President’s Advisory Committee on
          Weather Control.

    3. Ray Walker, I never hear of. All the others, yes.

      And Vickie mentions Fred Ward. Fred Ward also worked at Air Force
      Cambridge Research Labs.

      He was a brilliant man, but his forecasting skills were less than stellar. 😀

      1. Thanks OS for the bio on Roland Boucher. I probably would have remembered him if I was a few years older. I was born in 1960. Even as a kid I was fascinated by the TV mets. I don’t remember but my parents said that I would try and imitate Bob Copeland. lol. 😀

      2. Hi OS – and thank you for all of the info. Mr. Boucher was before my Framingham life. I was still in Belmont (graduating from high school) in 1967 and then Gibbs in 1969. I remember the radio station and although the name sounds vaguely familiar, I could just be imagining that I remember.

        Credit goes to Philip for mentioning Dr. Ward. I just picked up on it 🙂

  86. Hmmm

    I know it is 18Z, but the NAM is down on qpf.
    Has low pass just about over Boston or just to South and East, forcing
    the Bulk of the precipitation more to the North.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013121618&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=039

    Here’s the snow map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013121618&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=039

    The Clipper Axiom may be striking. 😀 😀 😀

  87. It’s going to be hard to get anyone over 4 with this one. May chop the top end of my amounts off on the update.

  90. Still thinking 1-3 inches for most, with a few isolated locales coming in slightly more, and a few locales coming in slightly less, this storm is more of a nuisance than anything

    1. Charlie will you be out in the field working the storm tomorrow for as long as it takes to get the job done.

  93. Pete has widespread 2-4″ including Boston (4″) and 4-6″ just due north into coastal NH and ME. For the Cape & Islands 1″ then rain.

    Also he says a bad PM commute!

    1. Actually Pete was pretty close the last time. He predicted 3″ and Logan ended up with “officially” 4.2″.

  96. Ok, NWS is on board (Whatever that means) for this event.

    Look at this wording:

    BUT THE WILDCARD WITH THIS EVENT IS
    THE INSTABILITY. MODELS SHOW VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8 C/KM TUE AFTERNOON WHICH IS VERY IMPRESSIVE. TOTAL TOTALS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S. THIS INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE
    CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES POSSIBLE AND
    THUNDER…BUT THERE IS LOW PREDICTABILITY WHERE THESE BANDS MAY
    DEVELOP.

    They are calling for a general 2-4 inch snowfall with isolated 6″ or more.

    Here is a link to the full discussion:

    http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BOX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=on

        1. With the right dynamics, I don’t see why not.
          The LIFT associated with any banding will do it.

          IT could be pretty hairy around here tomorrow PM.

          The only thing prevent a major problem is the quick moving nature of the system.

      3. you can get thunderstorm development if the storm is gaining streangth rapidly. and with a sharp temperature contrast.

    2. 6 inches or more lol see they r crazy os, I don’t see that anywhere, thanks for the maps os, this one is overhyped IMO 🙂

      1. Charlie,
        You could be correct, however, I would NOT dismiss that
        possibility entirely. There will be some potent dynamics
        at play here, albeit rather short lived. 😀

  104. Harvey has (somewhat) widespread 3-6″ including Boston with “fluff factor” to the north then 2-4″ to the south and 1-3 with rain later for the Cape.

  105. From the NWS, especially for Charlie: 😀

    NWS Boston ‏@NWSBoston 5h
    Tech: Steep mid level lapse rates Tue means enhanced snowfall in some locations. Exactly where is the question, but some 6-7″ amts psbl.

    1. Lol over retracs house or somewhere with some elevation, very very isolated, I like the 2-4 inch from the nws, I think most will receive that, I can just imagine some seeing this, and instantly spreading the news everyone’s getting 6-7 inches, anyways I like these type of storms, nice fluffy snow 🙂

      2. Snow might not be so fluffy for your area if the low is further north. Ratios might be more like 8:1 or even 5:1 for you.

  106. Harvey was saying there could be another piece of energy that makes it into boston and that could linger and enhance the numbers that’s why he has boston on the 3-6 line depending on that secondary front.

  109. Pete mentioned the same thing just now but said he wasn’t quite sold on it yet. General 2-4 (sounds GREAT to me.)

  111. If it bombs out enough it could send its precip shield back into us even if its moving quickly. We’ve seen it before.

  112. Yep I was just going to say that. On many occasions we get back end snows from a clipper systems like this that is not seen by models. Especially within the I-95 corridor.

    1. Hadi on the white Christmas. If we don’t get another shot at snow that may or may not be in jeopardy. Though tk does not agree we do warm up this weekend. Warm meaning alot warmer than it has been like the upper 40s but Harvey thinks 50 for Friday. Second some unsettled weather for the weekend as of now would be rain and a mix north on Sunday. But the way it’s been going it would not surprise at all if we sneak in another snow even either this weekend with a change in the forcast or early next week. Those are some things I see in my opinion going against a white Christmas. Third and I’m not calling for this is if we get any fog because fog will just vanish the snow.

  114. Eric says that early school dismissals are possible tomorrow afternoon! 🙂

    Don’t worry Tom…YOU will be in the mix/rain zone w/temps in the mid-30s as usual. 😉

      2. I’ve said that before am, my nephew is asking me if he thinks they will have school on Wed, I told him 2-4, and he says yeah so do you think it will cancel? I’m like no way!!!! Are u kidding!!! Just 20 yrs ago I would wait for the school bus in 4 inches of snow, that they would shovel, and we would be expecting 8-12, and then come home on bus while it was snowing and 8 inches on ground, ridiculous lol,

    1. I guess what I’m saying is, there was a time, and it was normal to go to school in 2-4 inches of snow or more, in the modern day New England whether its positive or negative, depending how u look at it, It’s becoming normal to hear schools delayed bc an inch of snow falls overnight, or schools letting kids out over 1-3 or 2-4 inches of snow, this is stuff u hear in Tennessee, not New England, idk maybe us sanders and plow operators don’t do as good of a job as back then, not sure 🙂

      1. We are more litigious. Districts with many schools, especially, have their hands tied because it’s hard to have some schools open and others not.

      2. Safety is a much bigger issue now vs 20 years ago. I caused to ride without seat-belts etc… Way more card on roads, I can keep going. 1 bus crash is too many. I rather be cautious than risk anything.

    1. That’s what my wife says, everyone is scared, they care about safety, but it’s the being sued that scares them, it’s sorta in a way very sad, like I said we’ve become much different, and more like the south with cancellations and delays over an inch or 2, and that’s fine, I just don’t want us to pretend like we’re different during snowstorms, it’s close to the same coast to coast in all big cities, with forecasted snow comes cancellation, has anybody ever seen the amount of cancellations rolling across the bottom of the screen, hundreds and hundreds, it’s totally changed

      1. We r about 10 yrs from the news saying a snowstorms coming with 2-4 inches, and all schools will cancel the night before, not far away folks 🙂

        1. Charlie you have forgotten to take I to account that we have a far larger population in many towns. Wayland for instance never cancels. Framingham is selective but has to have sidewalks cleared. The reason for that is there were a lot of accidents back in the day. Also remember buses are not as available as they were. And unlike back in the day both parents work far more than before and there is no one to drive. Overall – and I’ve lived here 64 years and am now watching third gen – the cancellations have not changed much. They certainly have not changed since my kids were in school.

            1. :D. School was a social experience for me. I lived for snow days. For my kids too. I was as excited as they were. I remember the criteria well. I was the one hanging my head out the window as a kid so I could be first to hear the siren in Belmont.

              1. Although my mom says she can remember a few times school being open back in the 80’s, watching the school bus pass by full of kids, there be about 6 inches on ground, and a predicted 8-12 inches, she said she kept us home, but says she believes there r many many more cancellations for misc stuff including certain schools, than 20+ yrs ago

  119. Still thinking a general 2-4 inches for SNE maybe some isolated 5 inch amounts. As always with these snow systems got to watch where those heavier bands setup shop. Get caught under one of those could get a good dumping of snow in your community especially if band sits there for a while.

  120. Timing to start still around early afternoon? My flight is at 1030. Also a piece of energy rotating through Chicago at that time.

      1. Thanks Vicki. She is ok. A lot of back pain since the gallbladder surgery. Most of which was existing, but seems to be worse. She is depressed that she hasn’t been able to get and out and do her daily shopping and Xmas shopping too. We will be home for Xmas eve and Xmas day this year for the first time in my daughter’s lifetime. My Mom will come here on Xmas day as long as she feels unto it. We previously were in CT with my Wife’s family. My in laws will also come here this year on Xmas eve. Time for new traditions.

        1. I’m sorry she is having trouble with her back and hope it clears up soon. And I can understand her frustration at this time of year. Sounds as if you will have a very nice new tradition.

          1. Yes. Missing my Wife’s Grandmother as Xmas eve was always at her house. It will be strange with her not here for the first time.

            1. Oh boy. That is difficult. My parents always came here on Christmas night after presents and dinner at their house. After my mom passed away we started giving a gift to our kids from her on Christmas night. Now its from my mom and dad. A new tradition but in that way they are still here

  121. Regarding the possibility of early dismissal for some schools tomorrow, pehaps one option would be to actually keep the students in school an hour or so past their normal dismissal time while giving a chance for the road crews to do their job. It is not like it is going to be an overnight nor’easter or anything like that.

    3. Framingham has had only one delayed opening in the 35 yrs we have lived here – last year. They are incredibly difficult to coordinate and too big a chance for kids , especially younger kids who go and get out last, to end up where they do not belong

  122. Last Tuesday we had a lot of schools closed here in CT with that snow. This is going to be another tough call for superintendant’s here whether to call school off or early dismissal. I would not want to be in there shoes tomorrow.

      1. Vicki if one kid god forbid falls or there is an accident you got a huge problem. In fact when I was in school there was a delayed opening and with that there was an unfortunate bus accident. No one was killed or seriously injured.

    1. There is more energy with this system than there was with Saturday’s.
      Sure moisture isn’t the same, but there is the Atlantic to draw on. 😀

  124. It seemed like when I was a kid the golden number was six inches in order for school to be closed. My mom worked for the school system and my brother and I would sit and wait for the phone to ring to let her know there was no school. It beat sitting in front of the TV waiting for the news anchor to announce your town since you always seemed to turn it on just as they were reading the town that came after yours in the alphabet.

      1. Seriously though. I think its about the same. As large as framingham is, they have never in my memory cancelled for 2-4 unless it was on the ground at the start of school with more to come or of there are other circumstances such as ice

  126. Jim Cantore

    @JimCantore: #Boston impacts on tap for Tue PM/eve w/heavy period of snow for PM Rush. IF 2nd clipper develops farther north Wed AM could be interesting.

    1. Interesting. Cantore is pretty good. I met him once during a snowstorm.
      I srove out rt. 9 to Natick where he and is crew were. He invited me into
      the trailer. It was cool.

  128. Nam showing Low pressure lagging all the way back to the Delmarva with precipitation
    breaking out down there? This must be what Catore means????

  134. Regarding Jim Cantore’s comment above, does he mean to say that if the 2nd clipper develops to our “south” Wed. AM could get interesting? I would think that if it developed to our north, only Maine would get clobbered.

    1. It’s basically just another piece of energy aloft that would if it came together linger the snow longer into the night for more accumulation. If it does not come together look for this system to wind down by 9pm.

      1. Thanks North. I didn’t realize that there was another potential clipper system further south trailing the Tuesday one. 🙂

      2. Yes. That’s why Harvey has boston in the 3-6 zone. If it develops the higher amount if not quick storm exit with the lower amounts.

  135. Still going with my thoughts from yesterday. Best snows in SNE will be north of Boston. Essex County MA into SNH. NWS I think has wrong idea with best snow in Worcester Co. Not changing my amounts much. 4-6 possible north of Boston, Essex County into SNH. 3-4 in Boston and MetroWest. 2-3 South of 495/95 and the South Shore Communities down to the Canal. 2-3 Worcester County. 1-2 CT River Valley of MA and CT and Berkshire County. Timing is a little faster now. Timing 9am west to noon east. Heaviest Noon -3pm West, 2-5pm East.

    Summary 1-3″ South and West. 3-6″ North and East.

    All I am going to say about the NAM is that is a crap model right now and has been for a year. Yes it gets one right once in a while, but the GFS is actually a superior model right now, particularly when it comes to QPF and timing.

      1. Thank you Viki, I am hot and cold on posting. I enjoy offering my thoughts to this thoughtful community when I can. Last week I had very little time. This week I have more time.

        I am also hot and cold to the back and forth. I enjoy the discussions, but get a little bored with all the model info. I tend to be bit of minimalist as I think too much info erodes forecaster confidence and makes for too much doubt and indecision. I tend to rely on the GFS/NAM/ECMWF for op models, and GEFS/SREF/ECENS for Ensembles. I still use MOS data too. It is huge in helping to identify confusion in the graphical output NAM and GFS. Everything else and the 6z/18z crap is just mind clutter to me.

        Please in no way think I am encouraging anyone to stop posting model data. Its great and people here are into it, so please keep doing it. I would never encourage anyone to stop doing what they enjoy.

        Also there are times when I just want to get away from work not think more about it.

        As for TK, he has a great site and his insight and aptitude for understanding forecasting subtleties always provides a learning opportunity for me as I read his thoughts.

        1. Thank you, JMA, for your reply and thoughts. I understand what you are saying about the back and forth. To me, who does not have the knowledge, it is not only interesting but a good way to learn (it’s always been my preferred learning technique if that makes sense) And you are sure right that TK has quite a special site here.

    1. NAM changed its kinematic equation calculation and thermodynamic parameters in 2012 and it has never been right since. Its forecast QPF has been overblown consistently since then even on the systems it is not polluted with convective feedback. On the other hand it does have less of a cold bias compared to before.

  138. Tweet from Eric Fisher

    @ericfisher: May add a 5″+ contour to our forecast for northern Essex and up I-95 corridor for tomorrow’s event. 95 not good for #travel in the evening.

  139. Not to totally change the subject at hand or anything, but has anyone else noticed that Harvey’s voice seems rather “horse” lately? I hope he is ok.

    1. I think he mentioned it on air either Friday or Saturday night on the 11:00 news – he said it sounds worse than it is and said he was going to have some chicken soup. Apparently it’s a bad cold.

  141. OS=I saw your findings on the GFS snow map you are using. I don’t like it.

    The algorithm is essentially using 500mb temps and applying an arbitrary multiplier, ignoring temps at 700-900 and the upward vertical velocity or UVV of the air passing through the clouds.

    There is no mention of 850 temps and the most important temps when it comes to LER for snow production are the 700-900 temps.There is no weighting to the temps in the snow production zone of the atmosphere’s layers, it lacks 2m and surface impact calculations, and then finally no climo.

    The GFS’s own snow tool does trend too much towards climo, but it is better and a more complete algorithm than the snow map. FYI, Boston’s climo is based on a 11:1 ratio during than months of Dec, Jan, and February and that reflects a 30 year data set input.

    1. Thank you. At least we know what the map uses and take it for what it’s
      worth.

      I’d rather it work like the Euro, use 10:1 and let the user make appropriate
      adjustments.

      Many thanks for your input.

  142. Bc the snow could be happening during daylight hours, this will cut down on accumulations some, it will also help road treatments 🙂

    1. The sun is angle is so low and temps so cold, daytime is not going to have any effect. Those issues become more of prevalent ~ Feb 15th.

        2. Not much at this time of year. If temps get too cold, traditional road treatment methods actually become ineffective.

    3. Pavement is too cold. Sunlight won’t make much difference.

      Glad it is snowing during the day at least & not tonight. Almost getting too cold for straight salt to work tonight…

  143. I emailed a couple of questions to mr Cohen and I will share my question and his answer when he responds back.

      1. I’m basically helping everyone, on here, 🙂 and making all decisions on salting and plowing before during and after storms

  145. Yawn. Time for bed. Probably wont be back here till Wednesday night. If the storm shuts down at 9 that will keep us cleaning all night.

    1. They are high school kids and they banned me the other day from commenting bc I questioned some of their tactics. LOL.

  152. I’m planning on a 1-3 inch snow event for my areas, most I think receive 2 inches, Bostom northward get the most where 6 inches can be expected, I’ve got all salt trucks ready to start there 1st round at 10am, goodnight 🙂

    1. I called the company we get the salt from, we get tons, but it works effectively above 22 degrees, so should be good 🙂

  158. 50 Degrees Fri,Sat and Mon, say bye bye to the white Christmas, I only reason I want this snow is for a white Christmas, plus rain and fog Sat will eat all the snow, not happy about this, anyways good morning 🙂

  159. Tom, you mentioned yesterday about watching the radar for this time in the morning to see where the precip is developing. Have you had a chance too review?

    1. http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_wv.php?inv=0&t=l3&region=us

      I did peak at the radar this morning. A nice, little batch of precip down around NYC. I’m assuming that has a chance to intensify some as it approaches.

      What really catches my eye on the water vapor loop is that ball of rotation around Green Bay, Wisconsin. I think thats the strong upper level energy that, once it catches up to the developing surface low, helps it to explode. All in the timing, if it does it quick enough, the GFS verifies and the precip holds on along eastern New England overnight. If its slightly off, then I think we just get the precip during this afternoon. Its going to be close.

  162. Weekend is going to be interesting too. Looking to see if that front & riding storm start to press south & east. The 6z gfs shows this compared to 00z. Storm over berks rather than west.

  163. Yawn….Morning all.

    FIRST thing I noticed was the MOON shining in my face and as I look out the window
    virtually a CLEAR SKY. Is there any meaning to that? I expected it to be at least
    a thin high overcast. Oh Well.

    GFS really want to BOMB this thing out and quickly, giving Boston something like
    7 or 8 inches.

    Here is the snow map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013121706&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2013121706&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=027

    Here is the NAM snow map, not nearly as impressive:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013121706&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048

    One thing, should the GFS verify, it could throw MORE snow along the
    East Coast than depicted on this run. If it really bombs, it could get really
    interesting. 😀 😀

    Going to look at Euro and be back.

  164. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/centgrtlakes_loop.php

    I think, the whole key to how things evolve. Posted a link above to show this strong disturbance on the water-vapor loop. Here it is on radar.

    Does this time it right to intensify the low and keep the western shield of the precip in eastern New England for a few to several hours overnight. No question, we all share in the activity this morning around NYC. That’ll be good for a few inches. Its the additional potential overnight. (This is my interpretation, hopefully its correct. :). )

  165. The Euro doesn’t look all that impressive. From the Wundermap, the best I can
    determine is that it gives Boston something like .5 to perhaps .6 inch qpf. I suppose
    that isn’t bad with the ratios. That could translate to 6-8 inches.

    Waiting on Hadi’s actual figures and perhaps a nice Euro snow map. 😀 😀

  166. Will this be similar to the December 2005 event? That looks like a wall of snow down south, once it starts it gets heavy quickly?

  170. To Coastal’s poin from the NWS:

    THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE BANDING…MAINLY ACROSS
    NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MA INTO SOUTHERN NH. ENHANCEMENT IN THIS AREA IS MORE LIKELY AS WELL WITH ONSHORE FLOW PRODUCING AN OCEAN EFFECT CONTRIBUTION. THERE COULD BE OTHER AREAS OF CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT..

  173. It is a balmy 11 degrees here in Newton. The variation in forecasted amounts by TV mets for just Boston.

    Channel 4: 2-5″
    Channel 5: 4-6″
    Channel 7: 5-8″

    Each station said the same thing: 1) the amounts in downtown Boston will be at the lower end of the totals; 2) the further south and east you live, the less snow; and 3) the further north and northwest you live, the more snow.

  174. Not for nothing, but the high resolution HRRR model is showing it snowing like hell
    in Boston at 7Pm with 4 inches on the ground already. 😀 😀 😀

  176. Snow is steadily moving this way. This is a good look. Note that the snow is
    NOT particularly heavy at this time. And also note that the radar is on Sensitive
    mode. The thing to look at is the DBZ of the echoes, however, this is REALLY
    high ratio snow at the moment, so echoes returns are not as strong.

    Echoes can be deceiving with this type of snow. 😀 😀

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=OKX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

  177. Buoys are down to 44.4 and 44.8 respectively. We are really getting there!

    Time to make the donuts. Later. 😀

  178. Yeah euro produces what JMA mentioned.

    Timing if this is plain awful. And btw for those saying no white Xmas euro only produces warm temps for a short one and not a whole lot of rain. So most of us here will have a white Xmas.

  180. How can it snow with a temp of 18 and a dew point of 9. Those are the conditions in New Haven, CT. Isn’t that too dry of an air mass for snow to reach the ground?

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