Cold Loosens Grip, But Not As Warm As Advertised

240 Comments

10:13PM

The coldest of the recent spell has gone by, and it will turn a little milder the remainder of this week. But low level cold air will be lingering just to the north as high pressure will be tending to develop there. With snow cover in much of the region (except closer to the South Coast), this will act like a refrigerator, temporing warm-ups, and making it easy for cold air to drain in from the north. Before all of this happens, a warm front will try to push out the last of the current cold air as it passes by early Friday, but a cold front will approach later Friday into Saturday and sink across the region during the weekend. The position of that front will determine temperatures which may vary widely across parts of the region. There will also be some periods of wet weather, mostly in the form of rain, though not a whole lot of precipitation will likely occur. We’ll also have to watch for the potential for icing over the interior areas depending on how much cold is able to drain into the region later in the weekend.

A peek into next week: Cold front sinks to the southeast of the region Monday with mild air replaced by cold. Cold high pressure builds in Tuesday with maybe a few Christmas Eve snow showers, and (timing uncertain) watching a potential clipper system for a bit of Christmas Day snow.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

OVERNIGHT: Clear. Watch for icy patches on ground. Lows from near 10 inland valleys to near 20 South Coast. Wind W under 10 MPH.

THURSDAY: Increasing clouds. Highs 30 inland hills to middle 30s South Coast. Wind W 5-15 MPH gusting over 20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 30. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs around 40. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Chance of rain showers early. Lows in the middle 30s. Highs in the lower 40s.

SUNDAY: Cloudy. Periods of light rain (ice possible inland valleys). Lows around 30. Highs around 40 north to 50 south daytime, may rise at night.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers early. Temperatures fall through 40s.

TUESDAY – CHRISTMAS EVE: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Lows around 20. Highs around 30.

WEDNESDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow. Lows around 20. Highs around 30.

240 thoughts on “Cold Loosens Grip, But Not As Warm As Advertised”

  7. Thank you TK. Nice job with the forecast details.
    I’m sure you will be far more correct than many broadcast mets. 😀 😀

    I like the Christmas Day possibilities. In my mind a nice little 1-3 or 2-4 dusting
    of snow would complete the day. I know you are NOT forecasting that, I’m just
    hoping we can somehow squeeze that much out of whatever system comes through,
    if it comes through.

    Not sure what this is all about, but CMC has this for Christmas Eve Day:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=120&fixhh=1&hh=132

    Crap loads of variations in model solutions for next week. 😀 😀

    I guess we just sit back and enjoy and see what unfolds.

    Beautiful day out there today.

    Hope NO ONE had to travel on Storrow Drive, East Bound this morning.
    What a disaster!!!!

  9. Thank you TK –

    spent the morning checking credit cards due to Target fraud so am just catching up to the numbers for the Sunday high.

    Below is what I have – did I miss anyone? anyone want to add a guess?

    If two numbers they run day/night. If only one number, individual just gave an overall high
    TK 41/47
    Vicki 43/52
    Tom 44/49
    Charlie 57
    haterain 53

    1. Vicki,

      These are numbers for this Sunday, but where?
      I presume Logan??? Huge difference between Logan and Worcester. 😀 😀

      Here is my guess:

      Logan: 49
      Worcester: 44
      Hartford: 52
      Providence: 53

      😀 😀 😀

  14. There is no way that we south of Boston have a white Christmas, there’s just no way!! I don’t see it, I guess I’ll have to be proven when I wake up Wed am, we’ve already down to just under 4 inches left, no way!! 🙁 🙁 🙁

    1. Well Charlie this is one that I agree with you on. Maybe up north but for boston and point south I can’t see how. I can see how fast it’s melting here at work and we had close to seven inches on the ground yesterday.

    2. I agree with you Charlie, it won’t happen south of Boston. We have about 15 inches in southern NH and I think we will be questionable, as I think we will see the next few days (after today) in the low-mid 50’s…

      1. For sure hertain and John, lol if you have 15 inches on ground that’s a sure white Christmas, but I’d your 6-7 inches or less I believe a brown Christmas is in store, good day guys, or gals, not sure hertain 🙂

    1. No – TK gave a high for the day and a high for the night. His night was higher than his day. Just the overall high is fine also.

  16. Starting tomorrow morning around 6am begins the big meltdown that I’m not happy about bc Christmas is 5 days away, the meltdown last to Monday, I think Monday also could be close to 50 degrees. Shopping 🙂

    1. Thanks for sending. Interesting map. Really not much snow up north (NNE) despite the relatively consistent cold since November. A little surprising. The rest of the map (ordinal differences between regions) make sense.

  20. See if this works. It’s the EURO 2mAG chart (temperaute 2M above the grounf)
    for SUNDAY at 4PM. Again Notice the SHARP temperature gradient in
    Eastern and NorthEastern MA.

    even Boston is at about 5C or about 41F

    http://imgur.com/edit

      1. Like I’ve said I’m not concerned about the high temp, whether its 45 degrees Sunday or 60 degrees, it’s this 3-4 day duration of temps over freezing for what looks to be 3-4 days straight 🙂

        2. I havent had a chance to look at the forecasted temps, but are we expecting overnight lows to be above freezing as well for this 3-4 day period?

  21. This is probably the worst news to ski areas in central and northern New England. Big warm up with rain right before the holidays. Between xmas and new years is when a majority of their revenue is brought it. For areas that didnt have a deep base to begin with this will be a big blow to their holiday week conditions.

    1. I don’t think up North will be impacted by any significant warm up.

      Our area is the battle ground. Could go either way down here.

      Up there, they’ll be fine.

  22. We didn’t get very much snow from the last storm, we actually had about 30 customers opt out of plowing this storm, and just wanted salt, these customers were all in central and northern Bristol cty and south western Norfolk cty, I know 6+ inches fell north, but I swear but don’t know for fact, but I swear my sister in laws house on the Attleboro seekonk line barly got 2 inches this past Tuesday.

    1. My mom lives in that part of Attleboro too. She said 2″ maybe a tick more, but that was it. They didnt plow most side roads including mine in Sharon. Its not like im on a remote side road either, im right off south main. That snow depth map u posted above doesn’t reflect that though.

  23. Whatever the temps will be I will gtd a white Xmas here in JP. I will take a picture and post it just to prove it.

  29. Pete Bouchard must be making some serious dough bc I just saw his kitchen and living room and the tree was massive. The kitchen was beautiful as well. He was baking a 7 layer for the news.

  30. Was in NYC the past 2 days. Practically no snow left at all, even in the parks. Snow melts very quickly with temps in the 40s, and it’s soaring into the 40s today with sunshine. Again, respectfully disagree with TK. It’s going to be quite mild and, as Charlie said, above freezing for a relatively long stretch. The interior will be different, I agree. But coastal areas will be lucky to see any snow on the ground at all (except for crusty snowbanks) by Sunday. Now, north country is a different story. And here I concur with TK. The cold front – though not vigorous at all – will reach the ski areas and most of north country.

  31. All in all, it’s been a good winter thus far. Two real events with snow already, even at the coast. We’ve also seen some real cold. A little bit too much of a roller-coaster. But, that’s SNE.

    1. Tk made mention of a clipper on Xmas eve or day, what’s your thoughts on that. I cant go through the stress of that again. It can snow all it wants after the 27th cause I’ll be on vacation and I’m relaxing.

    1. Charlie,
      You take the photo with a digital camera.
      You load the photo onto your computer in some file location.
      You upload the desired photo to an online site somewhere, for example:
      Facebook or Twitter IF you have an account OR
      Imgur.com is a free online site where you can store a photo. (There are
      others) Don’t store anything that you would worry about anyone in the world
      seeing.
      Once that is done, locate the URL (Location on the internet where the photo is stored) of where the photo is kept on that site. Post that link here.

      Piece of Cake. 😀

  37. IDK – I was thinking no way we wouldn’t have snow left on Christmas but we have lost 5 inches yesterday and today. It’s a melting very quickly

    2. REMEMBER,

      What is melting is the very LOW water content stuff that
      fell the other day. What is underneath that is Cacked up icy stuff
      with much more water content that will NOT melt as quickly.

      Not to worry. 😀

      1. Look it. With all due respect I’m getting a tad ticked with all this will it melt not melt, who the hell cares. I moved alot of snow this week and I can tell you alot has melted compleatly. Lets talk mild air coming In and track storms.

        3. John, I think it’s all right if we discuss any topic that is weather related – snow being one of them. In the future, however, if I’m getting ticked, I’ll be sure to let you know 🙂

  40. From WXRISK FB Page

    **ALERT** POTENTIAL for prolonged period of SERIOUS winter wx DEC 30- JAN 15. POLAR VORTEX Looks to be forced SOUTH- flipping AO to Neg

    1. Seems to have coincided here with an abnormally cold air-mass and some snow. Maybe its a good thing for us! 😀

  43. Interesting. I do know though a measuring device used to forcast the up coming winter that it is October snow that they look at. If you have any question on it let me know and I’ll ask Judah as he always gets right back to me.

  44. http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.php?inv=0&t=cur&region=mw

    http://weather.unisys.com/satellite/sat_vis.php?image=ir&inv=0&t=l3&region=mw

    With regards to the low level cold’s chances this weekend ….

    Have a look at the top link, which is current midwest temps. Focus on Iowa and Nebraska, who have NE winds and cooler/colder temps in the 30s.

    On the second link, the 3 hr loop IR Satellite, we can see the flow aloft is SW to NE, the opposite direction.

    So, even though our flow will be SW to NE, this shows that the cold, dense air will spread somewhat south of the core of the very cold air, even when the flow above it is from the opposite direction.

    It will be interesting to see how far the low level cold air can make it into southern New England.

    1. Super stuff, both Ace and Tom.

      Re: Siberia
      Interesting we have had one of the coldest Decembers in a long time
      while Siberia was warm.
      re: Low Level Cold
      One of the reasons why TK says it will NOT get as warm as people think or even
      what models project. The models just don’t handle it very well.

      We shall see.

  46. I recall a setup just a couple of weeks ago from today as I was in Boston in the morning, Weymouth in the afternoon, and then back to Sterling where it was in the 50’s in Weymouth, but when I was driving back along the Rte 2 area and Sterling the temperature was stuck in the 30’s so the warm front didn’t make it that far north….

  47. Hey, IF it behaves anything at all like it does in the Spring, it won’t get all that
    warm. We shall see. 😀

  48. Some current model info re: Warmth for Sunday.

    Here are the 2M temperatures (F) from the 18Z GFS:

    18Z (1PM) Sunday:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013121918&time=INSTANT&var=TMPF&hour=072

    21Z (4PM) Sunday:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013121918&time=INSTANT&var=TMPF&hour=075

    Notice that unbelievably SHARP temperature gradient in NE MA, from just South
    of Boston Northward.

    Facinating!!!!

    It will really be interesting how this all plays out.

    The Battle is on.

  49. A little break from snow, BUT I agree with what hadi said above, chances go up towards the new yr, but how much is the question, off to a 2nd Xmas party 🙂

  52. I guessed a high at Logan of 53 on Sunday and I might be low. Most of the snow from the southwest has melted so I don’t see that as acting as a refrigerant as the warm air mass moves up from the south. I think this warm air will move much further than people are projecting. I hope I am wrong because I do care how much snow melts because I want a white Christmas and there really are no other snow chances before Christmas so we have to hold on to what we have.

  53. Be careful. The snow may be lacking to the SW. But the low level cold is coming from the N, where snowcover is 10+ inches and will still be nearly that in 2 days.

    This is a classic case where models are going for big warmth, and get it right….. in NYC.

    Boston? Not so sure yet.

  54. Not sure if anybody knows but the pats game has been moved from 8:30 to 4:25 on Sunday. I was glad to hear this as now I can watch the entire game.

      1. I heard lynch say it during the sports and thought maybe he made a mistake but looked it up and there it was. I for one love when the pats have that time slot as its tough to get anything done after the 1pm games and the night games to late for me.

        1. Agree. On normal weekends we can settle in at 1:00. Unfortunately normal weekends are hard to come by. Its my favorite time too although we are tuned in for all

  55. TK, I value your opinion more than anyones my only concern is that we don’t get that low level northerly wind here in southern NE. This is a real close call but I think that the SW winds win out all the way into central NE. I really hope you are right…

  56. It’s so different north of Boston than south, it’s like this during the winter all the time, we just need good reporting like we do have on here, half the bloggers will have a white Christmas, and the other half I’m afraid a brown Christmas, tomorrow begins the thaw, tk might be right, we shall see, he’s right much more than wrong 🙂

  58. Logan 45 then rises to 50

    any time other than christmas, the sunday after christmas and new years eve it can snow as much as it wants but on those days expecially new years i do not want any big storm. though a light event i would love. christmas eve or christmas day.

  60. TK, you’re absolutely right about NYC being a warmer city than Boston. Even a few days ago NY felt much warmer than Boston. Less wind, and higher temps. Also, such an enormous urban area of relative warmth. Snows do come and go quickly. This said, having just returned from NY I can see how it’s already melting fast in downtown Boston. And today was seasonable in terms of temperature. Wait til tomorrow, Saturday, and Sunday. I’m telling you I sincerely believe the snow in and around the city will disappear quite quickly. Fog and rain will only speed up the process.

    Hope that we do get a light snow event on Christmas.

    Also, the Siberian story is interesting. Northern Europe has experienced a very mild winter thus far. Their cold comes from Siberia. There also hasn’t been an east wind in Holland in close to 2 months. All westerly, all the time. When the Dutch say the prevailing wind is west/southwest they really mean it! East wind in Holland implies the opposite of what it would mean in Boston. It means a dry, continental air-mass coming from Russia. It doesn’t happen often, but by now they’d usually have at least a short period of time with an east wind as a result of a Scandinavian high pressure area, steering wind in from Russia. In sum, basically no frost yet in the Netherlands, with the exception of the `interior’ where it’s been around 30 a couple of times at night. That’s it. And yes, this is unusual. Holland doesn’t get very cold normally, but a city like Amsterdam usually has frost in November, and certainly some frost in December. Nothing like here, but enough to call it frost at night (upper 20s/low 30s).

  62. Starting to see things that make me more confident that low level cold is going to win out and the big “warm-up” will take place … a couple thousand feet over our heads. Would not surprise me if some of the mountain tops of New England are warmer than the bases on Sunday. Never underestimate the power of snow-refrigerated low level cold air. It’s dense. Warm air is not dense. It goes over it. Still say Boston is below 50 Sunday.

  63. 10F in both Caribou and Presque Isle, ME. Light N winds. Its up there …… Eastern and north-central Canada are super cold !

  65. Good morning.

    To continue the WARMTH discussion.

    0Z Euro has trended much cooler for Sunday then previous runs, supporting
    exactly what TK has said above.

    I’m in Camp TK. 😀

    Although it is a long way off and things can and will change, the 0Z Euro has
    a really nice feature at hours 174 and 180. A system down the coast moving
    just about over the benchmark or really close to it. Fairly well juiced up as well.
    The problem is, right now the model is predicting 850MB temperatures too mild
    for snow, even with that track. AS I said, things can change. Something to watch. 😀

  66. Temp guesses for Sunday at Logan (these are what I have – did I miss you?)

    TK 41/47
    Vicki 43/52
    Tom 44/49
    Charlie 57
    haterain 53
    OS 49
    John 41/50
    Hadi 44
    DS 46
    Sue 47
    Matt 45/50
    Rainshine 48

  68. Vicki,

    Since you are still accepting high temps for Sunday, then can I change mine?

    I would like to make a change from 49 to 45

    Thanks

  69. Here’s the latest info from the Buoy 16 Nautical Miles East of Boston:

    BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
    (44013) 42.346N 70.651W
    Last Updated: Dec 20 2013, 7:50 am EST
    Fri, 20 Dec 2013 07:50:00 -0500
    Temperature: 42.6 °F (5.9 °C)
    Dewpoint: 34.3 °F (1.3 °C)
    Wind: South at 13.4 MPH (11.66 KT)
    Wind Chill: 36 F (2 C)
    MSL Pressure: 1019.6 mb
    Water Temperature: 43.9 °F (6.6 °C)
    Wave Height: 0.3 m (0.98 ft)
    Dominant Period: 11 sec
    Average Period: 5.2 sec
    Mean Wave Direction: Northeast (64 °)

    1. Certainly getting there. There was one year, 1979? I think, where
      it got waaay down there, such that Quincy and Hingham Bay were
      totally frozen over. The inner harbor was bad. They needed ice breakers
      to get supplies to Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket.

      We drove down to Nantasket and on the open ocean it was frozen
      for a good 1/2 mile out. NEVER saw anything like it in my life.
      ICE ALL over the place on salt water. 😀 😀

  72. I am going with 52 for the high Sunday.
    I did see the threat of snow next Friday on the 8 day forecast from WTNH our ABC affliate in CT. I am not putting much stock in that. Winter is taking a short break before coming back with seasonable cold for the holidays.

  73. Updated and please let me know if I missed you – tx

    TK 41/47
    Vicki 43/52
    Tom 44/49
    Charlie 57
    haterain 53
    OS 45
    John 50
    Hadi 44
    DS 46
    Sue 47
    Matt 45/50
    Rainshine 48
    Scott 77 42
    JJ 52

      1. It goes from 50+ to the 20s within about 50-60 miles.
        On a global scale, that is minuscule. Wouldn’t take much for
        it to be much cooler in Boston. We shall see.

    2. What an absolute JOKE!!

      The Weather Channel has take a colossal nose dive down into
      the DUMPS!

      They really suck big time!

      1. Well, for the guy ones anyways. Some of the girls looked just like the guys so it was sometimes hard to tell…

        1. hmmmmm – I was thinking of the month of June – which of course we know is the month when special people were born 😉

  76. I loved watching American Gladiators growing up. My favorite male one was Turbo and favorite female one was Sky.
    While it will feel like spring here on the first weekend of winter parts of northern new england could be dealing with some big time icing issues.

    1. Latest OBS from Boston:
      Boston, Logan International Airport, MA
      (KBOS) 42.38N 71.03W

      Last Updated: Dec 20 2013, 10:54 am EST
      Fri, 20 Dec 2013 10:54:00 -0500
      Weather: Fair
      Temperature: 40.0 °F (4.4 °C)
      Dewpoint: 32.0 °F (0.0 °C)
      Relative Humidity: 73 %
      Wind: South at 5.8 MPH (5 KT)
      Wind Chill: 36 F (2 C)
      Visibility: 8.00 miles
      MSL Pressure: 1016.7 mb
      Altimeter: 30.03 in Hg

      Charlie, did you stick the thermometer in the oven?????????

      Just kidding.

      Here is the report from Taunton:

      Taunton, MA
      (KTAN) 41.89N 71.02W

      Last Updated: Dec 20 2013, 10:52 am EST
      Fri, 20 Dec 2013 10:52:00 -0500
      Weather: Fair
      Temperature: 52.0 °F (11.1 °C)
      Dewpoint: 39.0 °F (3.9 °C)
      Relative Humidity: 61 %
      Wind: Variable at 6.9 MPH (6 KT)
      Wind Chill: 50 F (10 C)
      Visibility: 10.00 miles
      MSL Pressure: 1016.8 mb
      Altimeter: 30.03 in Hg

      So it confirms your obs.

      2. We have no shot at a white Christmas here, I’ve accepted it, but I would love a surprise and be wrong, I just don’t see how 🙂

  79. From now until Monday night, the temps will stay above freezing, I’m down to 2.5 inches, even beginning to see some grass, I think it’s a no win situation, anyways beautiful winter day 🙂

      1. Melting is certainly occurring. Our temp is 49.9. But my measuring spot is staying at 9″ I wonder if it has to do with the layer of ice halfway between the top and the ground??

  80. We r really noticing just how different it is here south of Boston as supposed to north of Boston, so so different in the weather dept, in March when north of Boston gets a little snow, I’ll be working down here while its in the 40’s, very weird

  81. I will give tk that the icy snow that fell a week ago has been tougher to be melting, but I still think its a no win situation 🙂

  82. Looks like I picked the right night to go to Edaville Railroad. This may be the first time I have gone and not froze my tail off!

  83. I was thinking about this whole thing, will all the snow melt or will it not melt. Someone said a couple days ago the snow from the last storm will melt quickly due to the lower water content. Agreed. Even though Boston and areas north got more of this snow than areas to the south, it doesnt matter how much more, bc it will still all melt at the same rate if it hasnt already melted. So we all agree whats left is the high water content crusty crap underneath from the first storm last weekend. I understand some areas got a little more of that than others, but after compaction if you still had some left, even in boston, most areas ended up with fairly similar results. If we all agree on that, than white christmas or not, areas including the greater boston, metrowest and southward will have the same result after this warmth. The one wildcard in all of this is IF and only if the city of Boston ends up on the cold end of that pool of colder air into sunday.

    2. I’m not sure what you are saying. We still have several inches from the second storm on top of the crust from the first. I’d say it’s about 50/50

      1. I still do too, but it will start melting very quickly. Today is the beginning. The real killer will be the nighttime lows. If they stay above freezing the melting will continue when it would normally freeze up again.

      2. Trust me, im not happy about it. The timing of the warm up is the worst, but i really do think, regardless of who got what as far as snow accumulations, it wont matter much. Its all about the temps.

        1. The 1 time the snow means the most, and we can only sit and watch it disappear, seems like this happens a lot, snow melts quick even if its only highs in the 30’s and sunny, I’m not happy either am, I want a white Christmas, anyways onto a different subje t, WHAT A BEAUTIFUL DAY!!! IM ENJOYING IT!! 🙂

  86. 28F in Burlington, VT with freezing drizzle.

    No big surface pressure rises ………. for that matter, no pressure rises yet in northern NY or northern New England, so …. the shallow, cold air doesn’t have much momentum yet.

  88. I think, in general, from Portland, ME to Concord, NH to southern, VT and points southward, its climatologically difficult to maintain snowcover for long periods of time. There are exceptions to the rule, however, the majority of the time, its tough to see snowcover in the aforementioned region last longer than 1 week.

    I think that, even at its climatological coldest, Boston’s avg high during the 3rd week of January is 36F or 4F above freezing. Our region, by latitude, is closer to the equator than the north pole. Our region borders the mild Atlantic Ocean, is influenced occasionally by the warm Gulf of Mexico, and is going to receive moderating temperatures anytime the west or southwest due to a landmass downwind.

    As it stands, Marshfield has had a snowcover since way back late last week. We are on day 7 or 8 with the day covered and though I think its only going to be snow plow patches left over on Christmas Day here ……. an 8 day snowcover prior to the winter solstice, in my eyes, is a pretty good start to winter.

    1. Don’t totally agree. From late December until mid February, even in the Boston area, we can maintain snow cover. I’ve seen it too many times to say not.

      42 Degrees North is far enough North in the dead of Winter. Early in Winter, then no and later in Winter, no again.

      Just my opinion for what it is worth. 😀

  89. Currently 50 degrees in Boston
    Current 850mb temperatures for the area are around +5C.
    Decent snow pack on the ground.

    We may not go below 40 tonight with an increasing dew point, snow pack will be down a lot by morning. Dew point rises into the middle 40s on Saturday with a temperature around 50 degrees. Snow pack for the Boston area should be gone Saturday night.

    850mb temperatures rise to +12C on Sunday. Little to no snow pack will be left to modify air-mass. I think 55-60 is doable on Sunday. Places that hold on to a snow pack will probably be closer to 50. Only thing we won’t have on Sunday is sunshine. Tricky forecast!

    1. 12z Euro MUCH warmer for Sunday than the 0Z run. Bummer

      Well, now it looks like the snow will be GONE!!

      It was REALLY WARM today and we have 2 to 2 1/2 days of Warmth left

      I was optimistic based on the 0Z Euro, but with today’s 12Z run, supported
      by the NAM, GFS and CMC, I’d say we’re doomed.

      ARGHHHHH!!

      Perhaps, we can squeeze out an inch or 2 on Tuesday. Going to be close. 😀

    1. Me Happy for you. Now ONLY IF we could get a BIG SNOW STORM
      within that time frame. Perhaps around the first of the year?
      We shall see.

  93. down to about 11 inches of snow now from the 18 we had yesterday afternoon. i believe if i do have any snow its going to be less than 4 inches.

  94. It really is mild out – nice. Lots of puddles in the roads but at least around Sudbury area and up towards Bolton and Harvard there is still a lot of snow. At least the snowbanks are high. We just got back from a ride up in that area. Sun was out briefly and we had a brief shower, too.

  95. Just measured just over 2 inches, now what I’ve seen with the snowmelt today is 3-4 inches in shady areas and 1-2 inches in sunny areas, tomorrow the snow pack here will begin to be patchy, just beginning today to see a few patchy grass areas

  96. When taking a look at surface temperature forecasts from the nam and euro, they suggest the possibility of low level cold air draining into NE Mass during Sunday. That further complicates Sunday’s temp forecast.

    1. The Euro has been locked into it, and is likely under-forecasting the drainage of the cold air. Not sure how far down it will get, but there will probably be a huge contrast from the South Coast to northern MA, including Boston, on Sunday.

  97. Did anyone see the size of the snow melters at the Super Bowl, there’s 4 of them, and they can handle a 100 yr snowstorm, these things r the size of million dollar homes, this event is ready for anything it throws at them, unlike dallas a few yrs back 🙂

  99. Charlie, curious if you are measuring or guessing.

    The one area I’ve been measuring went from 9 to 6.75. Same location. Same hole. I have areas with more but this is a totally undisturbed area. It gets sun filtered through maples until about 1:00. What I also noticed is the snow is wet/compacted enough for the dog (15lbs) to walk on top for the most part. He couldn’t yesterday

    1. Measuring but I think you got a lot of fluffy snow and that melts super fast, all I have is mainly that crusty 2 inches but its melting very very fast, I would be concerned if Christmas was on Monday never mind Wed 🙂

  101. NWS, regarding tomorrow night:

    TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE
    FREEZING OVERNIGHT AND WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS EXPECT AREAS TO WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP…WHICH COULD BE DENSE.

    1. The snowcover to the N and NE will more than make up for any mildness in the water. The air will be coming more from the N anyway, not so much E like it often does in the Spring.

  103. NWS point forecasts are starting to come down on Sunday’s high temps… Some locations are down as much as 10 degrees from this morning’s forecast. Suprised? I’m not.

    1. Yes & No. I was surprised at the 12Z Euro.

      What is it’s resolution compared to the NAM?

      We’re in NAM territory for Sunday.

      😀

        1. Nope, but missed a feature.

          At 12Z it is 12-16C (about 54-60) but then drops thereafter to NEARLY 0C by 21Z!! Amazing.

          Perhaps it happens sooner so the 12-16C air doesn’t make it in????

      2. If I have my #’s right, they are both similar – 12 km NAM and 16 km ECMWF .. No big difference. The GFS is 28 km and is going to be reduced down to 13 km in a few months.

        1. Many thanks TK. Not much difference, however, the NAM has a slightly higher resolution. Will be nice to get
          the GFS down some. 😀

          1. I think there are other aspects of the ECMWF that make it superior, but I am no expert on the subject. I tend to learn models by their biases, not their specifications. Perhaps JMA can elaborate a bit on this at some point.

            My approach to model meteorology is more simplistic than the average meteorologist.

  104. Latest from NWS re: Sunday temperatures:

    LASTLY…HIGH TEMP FORECASTS ON SUNDAY ARE OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE. AREAS SOUTH OF THE MA TURNPIKE SHOULD WARM SECTOR AND HIGHS WILL PROBABLY EXCEED 60 DEGREES! IT MAY BE MUCH COOLER NORTH OF MA TURNPIKE…ESPECIALLY IN FAR NORTHEAST MA/SOUTHEAST NH WHERE BOUNDARY MAY NOT MIX OUT. SO WILL SHOW A LARGE GRADIENT IN EXPECTED HIGH TEMPS ON SUNDAY.

  105. Not sure what people are looking at or where, but the snow is very much disappearing and this will only intensify with fog, some precipitation. I saw patches of grass in the Public Garden, and by tomorrow night it will all be patchy. Even the snowbanks are doing a disappearing act. Thankfully, as I was able to extricate my car very easily. What’s remaining is hardly white. It’s the dirtiest snow, except for what’s on grass and lawns. That’s very mushy. Don’t underestimate these thaws. For a cold weather city, Boston is relatively close to the equator. As close as Rome, Barcelona, etc … Therefore, there’s a lot of sunlight compared to most places in the world that are as cold as Boston in the winter. Even on the `darkest’ day. I’ve lived in Northern climes that are not as cold generally as Boston, but much further north. There, even with southerly breezes you will not generate the kind of warmth that is possible in Boston. Much less sunlight. Think 2 hours less. A 55-60 day in winter is virtually impossible in Amsterdam, for instance. On the other hand, days like today feel like spring in Boston because there’s plenty of warmth coming from that sun, with the S/SW wind (the latter is the prerequisite). I remember being shocked at the intensity of thaws here in Boston when I returned home in the mid 1990s. Had forgotten how intense both the cold and relative warmth were during the winter months.

    1. Still holding strong in my yard and still looking very much white. 😀 😀
      Of course it has melted some to be sure. After last event had 12-14 inches
      on the ground. Estimate about 8 inches or so now.

    2. The only snowcover gone from my area is Tuesday’s powder-air-fluff. That was expected. The crust atop the previous snowfall is still there, and I have nearly 10 inches snowcover at the moment. We’ll lose a bit more up here tomorrow and the rate will then slow Sunday-Monday before ceasing for a few days. Today was likely the mildest day for areas north and northwest of Boston. To the south, we’ll see how much warm air gets established and holds through the weekend.

      1. TK it seems we are losing from top and bottom. We have he last snow above the snow crust at about the same amount as we have the snow under the crust. It was 14 inches after tues with roughly 7 above and below crust. Now its roughly 3.5 above and below

        1. There is some loss from the bottom depending on the type of ground you are on and the configuration of heat retention and distribution. Much of it is actually compaction/settling. Remember that the first several inches of the weekend storm were rather dry as well. I have lost everything from the top and very little from underneath – just a couple inches of settling.

    3. I don’t tend to judge white Christmases by snowbanks along the roadside. 🙂 The snow in my yard is very white.

      1. Hehehe. I can have a white Christmas in my heart no matter when but I also go by what’s in my yard. I am having Trouble believing we won’t have snow left here

        1. It won’t be the foot plus that was on the ground recently but you’ll have snow in your yard. Remember that the lower layer of snow being compacted will make it even harder to melt.

          We are also going to get virtually NO rain during the next 3 days in this area (Boston area south and west).

  106. sleeding hill is made, huge pile of snow under the tree , i should have enough snow to rebuild the sleeding hill christmas eve after the rain damages it. i have about 11 inches of snow on the ground sleeding hill is about 10-15 inches. right now its slow saw a few kids on it today . tomorrow would have been a big day for the hill but not sure now

      1. I kind of liked them as I remembered. I didn’t understand why they had to be in color to begin with. The Christmas episode is what we no longer have in Christmas shows……when we are left with a sense of wonder and magic 🙂

  112. Hmm, it’s not a a lot a lot but I counted 6, unusual considering there’s still 1.5-2.0 inches left, though its becoming patchy.

  113. I believe a lot of residents living south of Boston will begin to see grass in a lot of places. I’m not happy about it bc I always want a white Xmas. By Sunday/Sunday night I believe the Foxboro to N.Attleboro area will be snowless 🙁 it’s just a prediction, will see how it pans out. Goodnight 🙂

  114. Beautiful morning, suns poking through the clouds, temp is 37.9 degrees, my measuring spot has only 1 inch left, but 2-3 inches in shadier areas, about 20% grass at this point, good day all 😉

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