Fine Line

212 Comments

3:16AM

This weekend it’s all about the line between a warm air mass just south of New England, whose northern edge will poke into southern New England with potential record high temperatures, and a very cold air mass in northern New England and southeastern Canada, whose edge will try to push southward and undercut the mild air. For us in southeastern New England, it only makes for a tough temperature forecast, as the bulk of the precipitation that does occur will fall as rain (not ice) and the heaviest and steadiest of which will stay north of the region. How I think it will play out, with the cold air sinking into southern NH and northeastern MA Saturday night and Sunday, will be reflected in the wording in the forecast below. The biggest plague of the weekend may be areas of dense fog that form, especially over areas that have a significant snow cover (mainly Boston area northward). As we get to the start of the new week, a cold front will push all of this offshore, but the transition on Monday may be rather slow, so it will be a day of occasional wet weather and lowering temperatures. By Tuesday (Christmas Eve), a fresh cold air mass will have moved in, and a weak disturbance moving into the region may touch off a few snow showers. Wednesday (Christmas Day) will also be cold, and we’ll have to watch the timing of a weak clipper system, for the potential for a touch of light snow. A slight moderation in temperature should occur later next week, but only back to normal, along with a few more disturbances bringing clouds and a few risks of snow showers.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Mostly cloudy. Highs 45-50. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light rain mainly northern MA and southern NH. Areas of fog. Lows 40-45 but may fall into the 30s southern NH and northeastern MA. Wind SW up to 10 MPH may shift to N in southern NH and northeastern MA.

SUNDAY: Southern NH and northern MA – overcast with areas of fog and drizzle, and a chance of a few periods of light rain, temperatures in the 40s, and light N to NE wind. Southern MA and RI – mostly cloudy, a few rain showers possible, highs in the 50s, and WSW wind up to 10 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy. Chance of light rain. Areas of fog. Temperatures fall through 40s.

TUESDAY – CHRISTMAS EVE: Partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Lows around 20. Highs around 30.

WEDNESDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of light snow. Lows in the 10s. Highs around 30.

THURSDAY & FRIDAY: Variably cloudy. Episodes of snow showers. Lows in the 20s. Highs in the 30s.

212 thoughts on “Fine Line”

  1. Thanks TK. Tricky forecast temp wise.

    Just an FYI for all … TV met temp forecast for Sat, Sun and Mon respectively.
    Channel 4: 50, 56, 50
    Channel 5: 56, 58, 52
    Channel 7: 55, 57, 51

  2. Thanks TK. More patches of grass showing up this morning and no I didn’t drive by Charlie’s house :). Still some ice on my walkway though where it doesn’t get sun.

  4. I think I’ll enjoy the mild weather because the GFS is showing potential arctic plunges in the long term and the EURO starts looking colder by day 10.

  9. As always, TK, thank you for your forecasts and discussion. I don’t thank you enough. You enlighten us all. And Vicki, you’re absolutely right. At the end of the day, it’s about everyone having a merry Christmas or whatever holiday one celebrates. May everyone be well, safe, and enjoy family and friends.

  10. Good Morning,

    The Euro, CMC and GFS all warm us well into the 50s if not 60s on Sunday.
    Only the NAM hints at cooler Boston N & E.

    Snow still holding on here, but it’s going to be mild into Tuesday AM. Not sure
    we make it.

    re: Tuesday
    As Hadi indicated, NAM wants to move a wave of low pressure along the front.
    Initially it would be too warm above, but eventually it would transition into
    some snow (an inch or 2 perhaps). That “may” be our only hope for White Christmas.
    Euro hints at it but keeps Most off shore. GFS, nope.

    We shall see.

    For the time being not seeing much out there. BORING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    1. FIM brings wave up here Tuesday, BUT before enough cold air moves in.
      That would be my guess. IF any moisture gets up here, it will be BEFORE
      enough cold air moves in. When cold air gets here, moisture will have moved off shore. The way it goes.

  12. Not sure if this an indication of the low level cold draining but I went up to Plaistow Nh this morning around 10:15 which is right over the ne ma border and the temp was 40 with light winds out of the north…driving back into ma through Haverhill it went from 40 degrees to 48 in a quarter mile and winds out of the s..sw….I have no idea as to which way the cold was going but its pretty darn close.

  15. Thanks tk 🙂 beautiful out, temp is 46.4 degrees, lots of melting, I have about a half inch of ice in my measuring spot, lots of grass showing, about 70-80% snow coverage, by tomorrow at the same time, it will be down to around 30-40% snow coverage

  19. Absolutely no grass here or in Uxbridge according to daughter. We are heading to holliston tonight so will be interested to see what they have. 55 here.

  20. What’s interesting about this thaw is that it’s happening around the solstice. Not sure if we’ve ever had a period of 100 + hours (that’s what it will be by the time the thaw is over) at this time in December with 50 + weather during the day and well above freezing at night. Usually, it’s a 2-3 day thing at most. Birds are making noise. Confused? Not yet, but they might be by Monday.

  24. Warm air has really pushed into NH, 55 degrees in Pelham with a 10-15 mile SSW wind. Yesterday’s high was 50.2. I would not be shocked if we approached 60 degrees. 17 inches of snow down to about 5 inches. We didn’t have any ice on our snow so it is going quickly.

  26. Going, Going Almost gone. Down to 3-4 inches and going FAST!!
    54 here.

    At this point I don’t think it matter about tomorrow. I think we can
    kiss a White Christmas Good Bye.

  27. Who broke the refrigerator????

    Most snow gone in the south end except for the snow banks, which are black. :-/

    I judge snow cover by how much is left in the local parks here, which don’t have much foot traffic. And it is just about GONE! Bummer!!

    1. We’re doing a bit better in JP. Still all covered, but not by much. I suspect
      bare spots to start expanding soon, if not later today/tonight, tomorrow for sure.
      😀

      1. Charlie. Not obsessing about it. Just giving numbers because it interests me. White would be nice but on the scale of things it is on the lower end

    2. Charlie are you aware you’ve made 11 of the 46 comments here (roughly) which is about 1/4 of the conversation and all but two have been about no snow for Christmas. I don’t know about anyone else but its safe to say I get what your thoughts are 🙂 :).

      2. Since the meltdown is the headlines Vicki this would make sense, it’s a weather blog, is there anything else you would like to discuss I’d be more than happy too 🙂

    3. “We” does not include everybody. Already knew your area was in trouble, having been in these snow holes in each storm.

    1. Thaw may be over in a few hours up here north of Boston. Boundary is heading down right on schedule.

  33. charlie he pointed for areas north and west of boston not where you lived. I still have about 9 inches of snow in my back yard. its a wet sticky snow my brothers and I went out and had a snowball fight last night.

  34. All in all, a quite remarkable, long duration thaw, particularly given that we’ve been running below average temperature-wise for a fairly long period of time. Drove out to Concord. My guess is people there will still have some snow in their shady areas come Christmas morning. But again, let’s not belabor the point of white versus green Christmas. The important thing is that everyone have a safe, healthy, nice holiday. We can’t do anything about the weather. We can of course talk about it.

  35. Just read on boston.com that temperature records were broken in Philadelphia (67!) and NYC (62). My guess is DC got to 70. Tomorrow, low 70s (yes, you heard that right), also in Philly, and more records to fall tomorrow and possibly Monday. Will the buds start opening up and the birds preparing their nests? Probably not. But, this weekend really has an April/May feel to it. I thought it would be spring-like but I underestimated it. Yes, we can declare this an unusual thaw.

  37. Despite the mildness, the lack of strength in the SW flow is making it easier for the leading edge of the low level cold to sink southward. It’s oozed into Nashua NH where the temperature is down 16 (56 to 40) in the last 3 1/2 hours…

  38. Truly low level cold, coming down the river valleys and finding all the low spots like a stream of water trickling along rocky pavement.

    At 7PM, relatively elevated Billerica center is 53, while the Shawsheen Valley not too far away is as low as 39.

  39. Here is what im thinking for tomorrow and christmas.
    southeast mass. near 0 percent chance of a white christmas
    anyone south of the pike less than 30 percent chance of a white christmas but near 40 percent higher evevations.
    30% chance east of i95
    40-50% chance inside 495
    50-60 chance north of the pike and outside of 495
    60% chance of a white christmas north of rt 2
    http://merrimackvalleyweather.wordpress.com/2013/12/22/major-ice-storm-to-the-north-battle-of-temperatures-across-northern-mass-with-record-warmth-south-of-the-pike/
    As you can tell i think many in northeast mass will see temps plummet into the 30s which could save the chances of a white christmas but also could not be enough to save it. we will just have to wait and pray.

  40. 48.8 degrees here, nice night, just got back from dinner, as for snow cover here in the Foxboro/Attleboro areas we r practically snowless, by tomorrow I expect the snow to be completely gone, BUT like Tom said the more important thing is for everyone to have a nice and safe Christmas, or whatever holiday u celebrate.

    1. So what’s ur latest thinking as to a white Christmas? I’m thinking basically Boston mass pike southward no white Christmas, and Boston mass pike north a white Christmas.

      1. That was pretty much my idea from the beginning. Held out a little more hope for areas to the south but it’s obvious it was too mild yesterday and today to allow that snow to hold.

  42. Also I wish I had a camera to take a pic of these invasive moths, there’s like 20 moths on the front door, very weird

    1. Ours were around a few weeks ago. Once it got cold they vanished. Haven’t seen any return. They tend to vary from section to section each year. I guess this year is a heavier year southwest of Boston.

      1. I noticed some in the headlights as we drove through Ashland. None here for a while. I was tempted to sit out on the deck with a fire but everything was too wet :(. What a night. Walked around Fatima shrine in holliston in a sweatshirt and was warm

        1. Sounds fun. Still 50 here. Left for a family Xmas party at 12 and came back at 6 and entire front yard which gets sun was completely snowless when I got back. Love this mild spell.

          1. Was fun. Thanks. What kind of cookies did you bake? Still 50 here. Water pouring from roof. Odd sounds from our furnace. But I’m ignoring them 🙂

  43. New England is a relatively small region (though Maine is on the large side), but with vast differences in weather this weekend. Consider that towns like Presque Isle and Caribou are in the teens with winter storm warnings posted, while Bridgeport, Stamford, and other SNE coastal communities will bask in 60+ plus weather tomorrow. Now, if the significant differences were a 1 day phenomenon, it wouldn’t surprise anyone, but it’s a 4 day period. Quite extraordinary. Massachusetts itself may see 30 degree differentials tomorrow with towns to the south posting 60 plus temps, and the far northeast corner stuck in the 30s.

  44. Alright weather friends….for the first time ever I booked a ski trip over Christmas…. we are due to leave Boston area Monday and head to Bretton Woods, NH.
    Will all this storminess have passed up there by Monday?
    I know its going to get cold, so they can fire up the snow making, kills me to know its 50 degrees there and all the nice powder is melting 🙁

    1. I can’t answer your question but am jealous. Growing up we left dec 26 to ski for the week. There was ALWAYS snow. Not as much any more. We skied North Conway but I love bretton woods. Good luck and I know it will be a special trip.

      1. When i was a kid we always left the day after christmas too. I was often more excited to go skiing than for christmas. Ah the good old days 🙂

      2. We always went to southern VT except for a year or 2, then it was North Conway. Id say it was 50/50 of having snow for that week.

        1. I love that you have the same memories. 🙂 Only once did we not have snow. But we stopped going in the late 60s. Mac and I were saying tonight that its sad most families can’t afford to do that any more.

    2. Things should start clearing out on Monday but it will be slow to move. High pressure will take over by Tuesday and much colder. Driving could still be dangerous bc if ice but check ahead with highway patrol. Hope what helps.

      1. Thanks all… we are excited. It is strange – we are skipping the whole family thing this year due to post divorce and general family drama… I worked an extra job this fall and was able to sock away some money for a getaway, I couldn’t swing Disney, so skiing it is… we got a super deal at the Mount Washington Hotel.. hoping for an amazing few days. My son is 7, Dad is away with new GF… hoping to ski and enjoy the distractions!!!! I appreciate all your good wishes!

        1. I don’t think the sky clears up there on Monday, which will probably start out with some rain and/or ice then changes to snow mid to late afternoon. There may be enough moisture for 1-3 inches of snow Monday night as the real cold air flows in. Doesn’t get out of the teens Tuesday & Wednesday. Cold days!

          Whatever the weather is, enjoy your time. Sometimes a different event is a great way to set up so you can start new traditions in the years ahead. Best wishes. 🙂

        2. Kathleen. Son has taken advantage of the mt washington packages. He always asks for upgrade and sometimes the accommodate. Last time he was top floor, corner with windows/views on at least two sides. She is a grand dame indeed. Now I’m extra jealous 🙂

  45. You should have gone skiing last weekend. they have gotten so much POW that it is up to the waist up at sunday river. and some other places. I wish i could have gone but god darn finals got in the way of that idea.

    neibor hood is all lit up. its a judging kind of thing just for fun. People come outside and look at the decorations of all the houses, and some bake cookies and goodies ,apple cider coffee excetera, My hill now has compititon as my new neibor made a hill.

    2. Cold air is really trying to creep down from the north. Almost looks like a stationary temperature boundary is setting up.

  48. Beach day !! 🙂 🙂

    Oh my goodness, these obs are for real. The wind is pretty strong out of the SW and stepping outside, it feels like a summer morning.

  51. We’ll the warm weather has been nice…But can we find a potential snowstorm anywhere? TK is it going to get any colder in Boston today?

    1. So far, I see NOTHING! Always subject to change.
      Euro shows a couple of those *!@&*#&*&!@#*&( Lakes Cutters
      coming up later.

  52. 45 and dropping here in JP and I’m a bit North of Hadi. 😀

    Heading to Scituate for a Christmas Brunch at Mill Wharf Restaurant. I’m trying
    to tell my wife what to wear for a coat. I know, a tough one.

  61. Geez, every bit of snow is gone, even the plowed snow, it’s like it never snowed, other than the sand everywhere, WOW!!

    1. Ik this is for tk, but with temps staying above freezing for the next 36 hrs, I see no way anyone in the Boston Provisence corridor even sniffs at a white Christmas unfortunately

  65. I wonder how far north and west of Boston the bare ground is, I’m thinking of taking a ride up 495 and 95 to take a look, got an errand to run anyway.

  66. Seems to have leveled off at 44 here in JP.
    Was just out and about town. MORE snow gone than I thought.
    Most exposed areas totally bare. Protected and shady areas still have snow.
    I’d say all-in-all 40-50% gone.

    My front yard is 80% bare, while backyard is about 30-35% bare.

  67. Even though it will be a coolish rain tomorrow, it should put the finishing touches to knock off the rest of the snow in the Boston area. NAM forecasting 1+ inches Boston South.

  68. Here it is 44, A mere 6-8 miles South at Blue Hill it’s 60!!
    That is incredible. I FOUNT the front. It’s just beyond Hadi’s House
    in Hyde Park somewhere! 😀 😀 😀

  71. The week ahead except Christmas Day, the week looks seasonably cool and mostly dry except tommorrow, Christmas Day looks cold w highs not getting out of the 20’s.

      1. gonna be a while I’m afraid O.S.

        my snow gun might be making a Christmas appearance for the second straight year

    1. We’re going to a family get together 🙂 🙂

      But its in Dorchester and I dont want to go to 40F and damp, I want to stay here in 60F+ and wonderful.

      1. Well ….. Its tough to say. Where the cold air is coming from, its still generally 1-3F above freezing and this layer of cold air is SO thin. Perhaps smart to put it in the back of people’s minds, but I dont think your area falls to like 28F, where it would truly become a real issue.

      1. 39.9 now and I suspect its been there a bit but I was baking and couldn’t check. You literally could feel it drop. We had windows open. Amazing

        1. We have 100% snow on any areas not touched. Grass that is. Roofs are clear across from us. Haven’t checked our back roof which had an ice dam at least 4 inches thick three days ago. Always happy to see them gone

  85. Amazing how u go from a solid snow cover 48-72 hrs ago, to absolutely nothing today, and there was a solid ice crust to break through, thaw is just to long, tough game today

    2. Our tree was acquired on December 8 and it has lost a total of about 10 needles so far. Best tree we’ve ever had. 🙂

      1. Funny we were saying same about ours. We bought it nov 30. The past few years they have been awful. A few years ago the place we go which is a very reputable nursery refunded our money cause all the trees were bad. Even if I run my fingers over the branches, the needles stay intact. Colder fall?

  89. My entire front area is still covered. Back yard is pretty clear. So I know the front is not going to melt and that’s where our tree is so it will be a white Xmas in my household.

  91. There are some yards that slope to the south that are bare, but most yards have (visual estimate except measurement in mine and my neighbor’s yards) 1 to 4 inches of snowcover left. The temp is 35 here and the melting has pretty much ceased. We may lose a touch more tomorrow but it may never really warm up that much more here.

    REMARKABLE boundary, but not a surprise. That is one very warm air mass to the south and one very cold air mass to the north.

    62 at 1000 foot high Worcester Airport, but drive up 190 to Fitchburg and you find it in the 30s. Low level cold? We knew this was coming. The extensive snowcover in northern MA and NH did exactly as it was expected to do, and act like a refrigerant to preserve the cold air and allow it to sink southward at the low levels.

    A bit of honesty from my perspective: I adore a white Christmas, but it does not bother me in the least if we don’t have one. The only weather I’m not much of a fan of is excessive warmth and/or heavy rain on Christmas Eve (especially), and Christmas Day. But whatever comes, I’m just happy to have the holiday and be able to celebrate with my family. 🙂

    My least favorite Christmas weather: 1982. Pouring rain and 50s on Christmas Eve.
    My favorite Christmas weather: 1983. Christmas Eve 1-2 inches of powder snow during the day, breaking clouds evening, howling NW winds at night with Arctic air pouring in followed by a Christmas Day when the high temp reached about zero with sun & passing clouds. Still not as cold as Christmas Day 1980 when my high temp was -4F.

    1. I remember those Christmases I think as I get older a white Christmas is nice but with kids having their own lives and families and traditions changing and the loss of some, the important part of Christmas to me is the family around the tree or at the table, new traditions and the loved ones in my heart. All else is just a bonus. And that being said….there is nothing like a light snow on Christmas Eve or Day. The magic of Christmas snow 😀

    1. Not unless something is still falling tomorrow evening. I think it stays just above freezing at the surface there and it’s far too warm aloft. In fact the 60+ degree air is just a few hundred feet over your head.

    1. Boston is 38 now. 3 degrees lower than the daytime high I had for them (I know the actual high for the calendar day is much milder than that, 54 in the early hours).

  95. It is no surprise to me how far south the cold sunk, I am a bit surprised by how cold the air is. I was expecting temps ins 40s not the 30s. What has really surprised me is how easily the warm air eroded the low level cold in the CT River Valley of MA where I live. Our last 4 days the highs have been 41, 47, 53, and it currently stands at 62 today. I had 9″ of snow in my yard Wednesday morning. It is mostly bare ground now and just dirty banks remain. It was -8 for a low here on Tuesday morning, now I have almost no snow. A most unusual occurrence I would not have predicted.

  96. FYI it has not been below freezing here since 9am Friday morning. Over 50 consecutive hours above freezing in a sheltered valley in late December…

  97. And before the media puts its attempted brainwashing on the general public that this is “not what is supposed to happen” or this has “never happened before”, though we don’t always see sharp contrasts or long periods of above-freezing in some areas in December, this is NOT extremely unusual, it has happened before, not only in recent years, but in more distant years. When you have this type of pattern in place where the AO has been sending the PV southward at times in Canada, yet we have an occasional moderate to strong ridge off the USA SE Coast, you are going to set up big contrasts. And the boundary has to be somewhere. If it’s in your back yard, it seems more sensational, for obvious reasons. For people in northern New England, it’s a chilly weekend with an ice storm. For people to the south, there is some near record to record warmth. As I always say, it’s weather, not the end of the world. 🙂

  98. The pattern isn’t overly rare or are the sharp cut off in temps . Think late spring back door cold front in SNE. I will say a 70 degree temp swing in December which I have experienced from Tuesday’s low to Sunday’s high is a little more rare…

    1. The big contrasts are certainly more common in the Spring than in December. Your Tuesday low to Sunday high swing is one of biggest I’ve seen. Gotta love weather.

  100. I think areas that are now in the low level cold stay there. No longer looks like enough push to warm these places back up tonight and early tomorrow. In fact the warmth to the south may lose a bit more ground to the low level cold. The real cold front, from the west, arrives during the day tomorrow anyway, but we have quite a little trough in the upper levels to come through here on Tuesday. I’m not going to agree with many current forecasts of mostly sunny and cold. There will likely be lots of clouds and probably at least some snow shower activity if not a period of snow.

      1. It has been. You were right about the consecutive hours above freezing. It does a number on a snowcover. If this had been March, the snow would have melted twice as quickly.

    2. Agree. Think clouds and maybe just enough from a snow shower to whiten up the brown muck that sits on top of the remaining snow.

  105. one other quick thing- ECMWF and NAM way overdone QPF this weekend for areas S of RT 2. (As has been the case more often than not since August) GFS too warm for most. But here in CT River Valley of MA and CT it was actually right on today compared to the too cold NAM.

    1. I was still in Northern Vermont that morning. Temperature at Lyndon State College was -22 degrees at 7:20AM. About a 75 degree temperature difference between that and what I felt on Friday. I never got into the down right muggy stuff today being in NE Mass. Still middle 30s with near 100% humidity feels balmy. For the record, I slept with the window open last night, felt great.

      Going to New Orleans tomorrow, until next Saturday. Hoping to get a nice 60-65 degree day there.

  107. Interesting ride to Scituate this morning. Left JP around 10:15 and it was 45 or so.
    Got to Braintree Split on the Expressway and it jumped to 48 as we hit the front.
    Within 2 miles it was 63 and made it to 65 in the Rockland/Norwell/Hanson area.
    Headed East on 123 until we hit 3A where I noticed a flag whipping in from the NE.
    Looked at temp and it had dropped to 58. Within a few miles it was in the 40s and
    in Scituate center it was 42.

    Coming home it was 42-40 all the way until JP where it dropped to 39 and where it is now.

    Very interesting for sure.

    Snow is mostly gone here, although the tree laden Arnold Arboretum is about 90% covered. My yard, however, is mostly bare except for the snow piles.

    1. It was more than fascinating watching the temps today

      Did you remember to wrap the gifts for Toms wife while you were in the area OS?

      1. Sorry,
        I left the house prior to that discussion.

        Great Brunch buffet. ALL you can eat for $19.95!
        Impressive and the food was really good.

  109. 37.8 framingham, Fog creeping in. I’d say about 65% snow cover with that ranging 1-3 inches. TK and JMA thank you both for your posts.

  111. Making tomato sauce with my mom. Listened to some of our favorite Christmas songs and now watching the Pats. 🙂

    Blog is updated!

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