Drier, Colder Pattern Returns

196 Comments

2:45AM

After a brief milder spell, and a transition that featured a major temperature contrast across southeastern New England, we’re heading back into a generally colder and mostly dry pattern as we reach Christmas then head toward the New Year.

The wet weather system that brought rain and a little ice to southern New England but a moderate to major ice storm to parts of northern New England is finally offshore, with only lingering cloudiness from it over southeastern areas this Christmas Eve Morning. As the day goes by, those clouds will continue to slide offshore, but other clouds will develop as a disturbance at high levels of the atmosphere moves across the region from west to east. It looks like any snow shower activity from this disturbance will occur southwest of the region (toward NYC). What won’t miss this area is the cold air, which will arrive in force Christmas Eve during the night and remain in place during Christmas Day Wednesday. Christmas morning will dawn bright, but the day will end with filtered sun as high cloudiness increases from the next disturbance, which will bring some snow and rain showers on Thursday. Behind that, a few dry days are expected, with a chilly Friday and a milder trend over the weekend. The mild air will quickly be replaced with a blast of cold air by the start of next week. This may be the start of a very cold stretch of weather. More on this potential upcoming pattern soon.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Lots of clouds Eastern MA and Seacoast NH  giving way to more sun during midday and afternoon. Elsewhere, more sun to start then variably cloudy. Highs 30-35. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT – CHRISTMAS EVE: Variably cloudy early then clearing overnight. Lows 13-18. Wind NW 10-15 MPH gusting 20-25 MPH.

WEDNESDAY – CHRISTMAS DAY: Bright sun in the morning. Filtered afternoon sun. Highs 23-28. Wind N 10-20 MPH diminishing during the day.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Thickening clouds. Lows 15-20. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow and rain showers in the afternoon, best chance of rain South Coast, best chance of snow showers elsewhere but only minor accumulation at best. Highs 32-37. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 22. High 35.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 22. High 40.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 26. High 47.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. AM snow showers. Low 22. High 29.

196 thoughts on “Drier, Colder Pattern Returns”

  1. Thank you TK. I noticed thy were putting some salt on the Mass Pike tonight (this morning). Probably concerned about wet surfaces freezing over.

  4. Thank You, TK! Wishing you and yours a very Merry Christmas, and a safe, happy & healthy New Year! Also, may 2014 bring us some interesting and challenging forecasts!

    1. The same to you! We shall see. I am sure there are challenges ahead. I’m already looking at a few in the medium range.

  5. Best wishes to all my weather friends for a very Merry Christmas and a safe, happy and healthy New Year!!!

  6. Thanks, TK.

    In Sudbury we still have some snowbanks and patches of snow – so I guess you could say we will have somewhat of a white Christmas.

  9. Good morning all.

    Many thanks TK.

    Merry Christmas to all WHW bloggers: MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!
    Have a most enjoyable Holiday!

    re: Weather down the road.

    CMC lost the earlier one (well it moves it off shore), BUT it has another a bit
    later.

    Look at this beauty down the coast:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&stn=PNMPR&hh=192&map=na&stn2=TT850&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=192&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    Look where it goes:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=192&fixhh=1&hh=204

    GFS does NOT have it. However, the Euro does, sort of, but too far off shore and
    weaker:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=ecmwf&stn=PNM&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=ecmwf&stn2=PNM&hh2=168&fixhh=1&hh=192

    But the Euro is seeing something. We “may” just have a watcher here.

    The FIM does NOT have it.

      1. The only difference I see is one does every 2 millibars while the other does every 4, so one looks “stronger”.

        1. TK,

          You looking at what I’m looking at. Can you look again.

          One has it located at the tip of Maine and Nova Scotia,
          while the other has it out over New Foundland somwhere.

          Very strange. Am I missing something??????

  10. Just spoke with my father in law in Augusta Maine and he said it’s a “war zone” outside. We are supposed to go up tomorrow but deciding what to do. Bad scene with all the power outages and this cold.

  14. It dryed out nicely here before any problems, plus I just washed the truck 🙂 thankful no dirty salt here 🙂

  15. We don’t have too much left outside besides the larger piles where my snowblower packed it on. I would say we are 80% bare on the lovely west side. 🙂 Merry Christmas to all.

    1. I was up the hill last night and there is still a few inches of snow on the north side. My friend’s front yard is about 3 inches solid. Still have 1-2 inches frozen on the ground here in the back yard, but just a few patches elsewhere.

  17. Hmmm

    Latest model runs seem to want to redevelop this next clipper type system
    just off shore of MA on Thursday. Too Little, too late OR will it happen sooner?

    “Could” we get a little surprise here OR Not?

    I like surprises!!! 😀 😀

  21. When we look back to stats on whether this is a white Xmas or not in 20 yrs, would this go in the stats of a white Christmas or no?

    3. It depends on where you are. For you, obviously it’s not white. 🙂

      For me, I technically have more than 1 inch of snow on the ground, and that won’t change through tomorrow, so yes, it’s a white Christmas (barely).

  22. Merry Christmas Eve everyone!!!

    Even though it’s not snowing for Christmas, I really love how there is still some snow on the ground! It’s a half-melted white Christmas 😉

  23. Merry Christmas fellow bloggers. I hope everyone has a nice holiday however you maybe celebrating it.
    Vicki if you have our bold weather predictions we made back on January 1st can you please post them. I would like to see if anyone of our predictions happened. Can’t wait to do this on January 1st in 2014 and I am already coming up with some.

  25. Merry christmas everyone. Im having a white christmas this year still a good 3 to 5 inches of snow through out my yard. bare spots where i shoveled. Snow is as hard as a rock now.

  26. Merry Christmas Eve everyone! Hope everyone has a wonderful holiday 🙂

    Heading out for some last minute shopping (i like to torture myself every year, lol). Wxrisk.com is pretty bullish on an east coast event for the period of the 3rd-5th of Jan. If the polar vortex comes as far south as he thinks, that storm wont have a chance to get up here and will bury the mid-atlantic states. Also holding out hope for an event here around new years.

    1. Why not. My granddaughters bday party was to be last dec 29 and we know what happened then. This year they are planning it for jan 3 or 4. Can’t remember.

    1. I think I know which ones. But they are on my computer. Although I’m having trouble with NORAD Santa on my iPad so may have to boot up anyway

      1. I found them – or at least I think that’s what you meant. I put them on gardening, JJ – they are really long and it might mean a lot of extra scrolling on here. TK – they can be moved if you want me to.

  28. Merry Christmas to all. We do have a white Christmas in Pelham, NH, we just hung on to about 4 inches of snow. OS I will be in Ocean Park, Maine (just south of OOB, ME) and that Thursday map looked nice to me for coastal Maine, lets hope it verifies.

  29. Boy the GFS wants to put us in a deep freeze around the new year. Big storm to the south just before then but gets pushed way south

    1. That does NOT guarantee wet.

      That there is some pretty CHILLY air “just” to our North. That has
      to be drawn in with a track like that. So even if 850mb temps not cold enough,
      suspect much sleet would be in play. However, that’s a ways off. Can’t predict
      a rain snow line at this point. Can’t even count on the event at all. 😀

      BUT, it IS something to watch. Interesting to see IF the Euro and CMC
      pick up on this one OR if it’s another GFS Phantom. 😀 😀 😀

  32. Yes we are entering a cold and mostly dry pattern but 2 cautions regarding snow:

    *Don’t turn your back on Thursday’s system. It may make an attempt…
    *Something interesting may happen between January 2 & January 4…

    1. So your saying this Thursday has a shot at accumulating snow around here. Wow total opposite of the rain/ snow showers that most mets forcasting including yourself.

    2. TK, do u think the Dec 31st – Jan 1st system southeast of us stays that way or do u think it makes an attempt up the coast?

  34. Happy holidays to everyone. Hope you and your families have a great holiday.

    Hadi, I spoke to my relatives in Toronto today and they said it is like a war zone there too. No power for two days now and temps in the teens. I feel really bad for all those impacted by the ice storm.

  35. I like TKs comments above. 😀

    *Don’t turn your back on Thursday’s system. It may make an attempt…

    TK do you specifically mean a “Possible” coastal redevelopment,
    just close enough and just in time to throw back some accumulating SNOW??????

    That’s the way I read it.

    You are GREAT at throwing out teases. 😀 😀

  36. TK also said:
    *Something interesting may happen between January 2 & January 4…

    GFS looks interesting. CMC looks like garbage during that time period.
    Now we shall see what the Euro looks like. It will probably have a migraine!

  37. Grrrr, cant stand the euro on instantweathermaps, those increments are worthless. Looks like a clipper bombs out over us in the 12/29 – 12/30 timeframe? No?

    1. I was JUST about to post something on this.

      Here’s the look at 120 hours:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013122412&region=NATL&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=120

      And then at 144 hours:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF-php/showmap-ecmwf.php?run=2013122412&region=NATL&var=PRMSL_msl&hour=144

      Now where does it begin to bomb out???

      Does it jump at that more Northly latitude? OR does it redevelop more
      Southward and THEN move to that location at 144 hours.

      Looking at the 500mb chart for clues, my guess is it jumps to the Coast
      pretty far North of us. Perhaps giving us a little bit of a glancing blow, but
      clobbering down East Maine.

      Also of note: GFS and CMC do NOT have this feature at ALL.
      I can’t stand this kind of stuff.

        1. Euro doesnt do much with it. Not enough moisture. It does develop is but too late. Gets Maine with a bit of snow but nothing for us here. Could change though John.

          1. That’s what I thought ace than tk said don’t turn your back on Thursday. Thanks ace and merry Christmas.

            1. Thanks, you too John! I would listen to TK though more than myself. Im just spitting out what a model is saying for one run.

      2. I agree. EURO is alone in this. Euro also does not have the southern states and mid atlantic system for new years at all either

  38. Looking at the Wundermap, Euro wants to crank out a coastal
    “Just” to the East of Boston, Thursday afternoon/evening.
    Just a Bit Outside. 😀 😀

    Still, could drop an inch or 2 or 3 on Eastern sections. 😀 😀

    1. So it could be plowable for boston as well. How do we go from snow showers to snow all in 1/2 day. Nobody had made mention of this, weird.

      1. Too much nogg john, lol 🙂 Even if its an inch or 2, nothing plowable. Again, just one run from one model. Not a forecast. I wouldnt worry too much about it.

        1. I’m not at all. I just wish tk would explain more if he is changing a forcast for Thursday. Thursday will be a bit warmer than tomorrow as bone chilling for Xmas.

          1. No changes at this time. I’m just saying that it’s the type of system that can throw a surprise and develop more than guidance suggests. Something to watch.

    2. Agree ace. After a milder weekend though not at all like last one it turns very cold again right through next week.

  40. Well that EURO run was most interesting. GFS takes a lot from the gulf and sends it up the coast for 1/3, euro redevelops a clipper to our east for the same time period. One of these things are not like the other, lol

  41. Well ok then. OS, wundermap just solved the mystery. That storm on the 30th doesnt come from the clipper, it comes from a southern low that comes out of nowhere and rides up the coast and gives us rain

    1. Yes, the Indignity of it all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      And that low is in such a nice position too.

      Hey, most likely NONE of these scenarios will be the final solution.

      Mother Nature will decide that. 😀 😀

  42. Ought Oh!()@&#*&!@*(#!*(@^#(!^@#&*!%^@&*#%!@#^!%@#^%!&@^#%&!@^%#

    The Euro didn’t pop a coastal from that system moving North of us.
    It cooked up a coastal from the SouthEastern States and moved it up
    here into a WARMED UP Atmosphere for a Bleepity bleep bleepin RIANORAMA!!!!!!

    http://i.imgur.com/8ySYCQm.jpg?1

    Temperatures WAAAAAAAAY above freezing. 850mb temperatures above freezing.

    I certainly hope this changes around some………………..

    1. Yuck yuck and more yuck!

      IF this system is delayed some and waits for the colder air to get in here, we could have some snow, but then again, if it waits too long, it would get shunted south which the 12Z GFS depicts for this.

  44. I think the models are starting to see a pattern change and will be flip flopping through the holidays. Not taking much stock in individual scenarios. The thing ill take away is it will be stormy around the new year.

    1. I believe that is a good take.

      I believe that QPF goes up for Thursday and WHO KNOWS about the
      next one. Roller Coaster????

  47. he he he, from wxrisk.com

    Wxrisk.com
    ABOUT JAN 3-4 possible Significant east coast Low- 12z GFS has Low on NC VA coast Snow to Rain on the coast Big snows inland

  48. The Thursday event looks very small, nonevent, under an inch for most, I take that back, expect school delays and cancellations, who know governor will probably let non emergency people go home, lol, Merry Holidays Everyone!!

      1. If there is model error by 75 miles, that’s a totally different outcome. That’s why I said don’t turn your back on it. 🙂

  51. I’m not sure if you guys are talking about this Thursday but no mention of it by any met other than to say snow showers. Even Barry just said same thing so not sure what’s up with the models.

    1. Taking the conservative route until the situation becomes more
      clear. They can’t alarm people on speculation. We can speculate here
      and Ask what IF. A responsible broadcast Met cannot do that.
      That is the luxury of this blog.

      Most likely it will end up snow showers or little light snow, BUT something
      more is possible, even if the probability is low.

  52. For selfish reasons I’m glad we have no snow threat for this Xmas as I don’t have the stress of leaving my family. Two more work days than I’m off till January 6th, I can’t wait. I looked back at the 2013 predictions and boy alot of my guesses came through except the Labor Day storm. Thanks for posting Vicki.

      1. Of course that is 10 days out, so these maps are basically useless
        at this point, except to monitor trends. 😀

      2. Keep in mind it can still snow even if 540 line is north of us. But yes it would be nice to have around the outer cape 🙂

        1. Hadi,

          Have you been dipping into the egg nog?

          That’s NOT the 540 line, that is the 850MB 0C line.
          A wee bit of a difference there. 😀 😀 😀

  57. Canada is loading up with some serious Arctic air and some of that is destined for the north central and northeastern USA during the next couple weeks.

  60. My son arrived here Sunday after a 3-day job in Fargo, ND. It was so cold, both he and his co-worker got a nose-bleed! That’s some mighty cold air!

  61. For Thursday warm air to move in. Tomorrow night will have cloud cover to prevent the temps from dropping way down. Best chance of inch or more at best is Merrimack valley according to Harvey.

  69. Merry Christmas !

    Chatham on Cape Cod has a white Christmas. They got hit last night with moderate snowshowers and the cams down there are showing a ground coated in white.

    1. Tom that shower was in our are as well as it put a nice little trace on things here. If it only could have stayed just a tad longer. Merry Christmas Tom.

  70. I missed the snow showers and squalls last night as they tracked southeastward into lower Fairfield County CT and the NYC area. Oh well maybe next year a White Christmas.

  72. FWIW,

    Canadian brings .2 to .3 inch for Thursday.
    Ukmet about the same.
    Gfs just about nothing.
    Couldn’t tell with Wundermap for Euro, something like .1 to .2. When Hadi is free
    from his son, perhaps he can post that. 😀 😀

    Waiting on 12Z NAM.

    2 more chances after that.

    Along about 12/3o or so and again about 1/2,1/3.

    The 12/30 event is in danger of passing off shore
    The 1/2 event is in danger of being a rather potent Lakes Cutter, but
    it will be bumping into some serious cold, so we shall see.

    Things could get interesting.

    1. The most serious cold is probably what comes right after that system around 1/3. The Euro basically brings the PV right across New England.

  74. Euro has .11 qpf for Thursday, nothing for the Dec 27 and a monster inside inner for 1/3. And then the bottom falls out on temps as PV comes in.

  75. Here’s the 06Z GFS for the evening of 12/29:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_114_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=114&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

    AND the 06Z GFS for 1/3:

    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F06%2Fgfs_namer_228_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=06&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fhr=228&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=0

    So there is action ahead, although there is model discrepancy all over. 😀

  78. Pure speculation but this is how I envision things going in the next 7-10 days:

    *Cold & bright Christmas Day (that’s an easy one).
    *System redevelops Thursday but a little further offshore than last Tuesday’s similar system, so we get spotty snow/mix with any minor accumulation NW of Boston and a brief slug of rain over Cape Cod.
    *Quiet & chilly Friday.
    *More clouds, milder Saturday.
    *Ocean storm Sunday brings rain at least to Cape Cod, may include all of eastern MA, but either way, on the mild side.
    *Arctic air arrives Monday with a cold front and maybe some snow squalls.
    *COLD New Year’s Eve.
    *Clipper with some snow early New Year’s day, cold day.
    *Storm of some sort approaches late on January 2 and does whatever it’s gonna do on January 3.
    *Coldest air in a long time on the weekend of January 4-5.
    *Christmas Season officially ends on Monday January 6. I keep my lights up until then. Right Vicki? 🙂

    1. Thanks TK.

      Yup 1/6, Little Christmas.

      The Epiphany, the oldest of the Christmas feasts, is also known as Three Kings Day for the three magi who found the Christ Child after following a star to Bethlehem. It is celebrated on Jan. 6 and is the major holiday of the Christmas period in the Eastern Church.

  79. Merry Christmas Everyone! God Bless! I hope you all has a great day!

    Does the Thursday event look like all snow for Boston?

    1. 850mb temps plenty cold enough for snow. It all depends upon the
      boundary layer. IF it warms too much, it will mix or change to rain, especially
      along the coast and to the South.

  81. For anybody looking for meaningful snow tomorrow it’s not going to happen. The temps will actually go up later tonight/ tomorrow. That’s what I’m hearing anyways as all mets seem to agree. So north/ west get some but not that much at all inch maybe.

  83. I hear ya oldsalty. I honestly believe we get plenty more snow. My prediction was after the fast start January kind of mellows out with some mild shots. And than full speed ahead for a classic February with snow and cold. Time will tell but I’m off to fast start.

  85. Hanging out with the family for a few hours for roastbeef, ham, and turkey sandwiches and the accessories, stuffed shells & lasagna, a few more gifts, some music and lots of laughs. There will be a break for a couple hours where other visits are made, at which time I will update the blog. We all get back together this evening for mulled cider, dessert, tea & coffee. 🙂 And the night will end with Albert Finney’s Scrooge movie. 🙂

    And I love what you wrote about above, O.S. 🙂

    1. 😀 Enjoy TK.

      Headed to my Daughter’s in Hopkinton a little later for Christmas. Prime Rib, gifts and then dessert.

      I’ll weigh 300 pound by the time I’m done.

      😀

  86. Tk enjoy. I have a roast pork and roast beef in the oven. About 13 people just entering now. Two more days and its vacation time. Tk thanks for all you do here. Merry Christmas.

    1. http://i.imgur.com/OPQkjd2.jpg?1

      From what I can see, 850 mb temps just barely cold enough for snow
      in the Boston area. Goes over to rain to the South. Close.

      Hadi, I know you are tied up, but at some point if you could post the qpf, it
      would be fantastic. 😀 😀 Many thanks

  88. Late weekend POTENTIAL storm good track to around benchmark but no real cold air in place unless this storm is strong enough to create its own cold air I am thinking more of a rainorma than a winteriorama. Plenty of time to watch this unfold over the coming days.

  89. JJ unfortunately everything points to a rain storm around these parts.

    Heading up to Maine tomorrow morning and of course WWA posted for 3-6 inches. Gonna be a fun drive up.

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