Sunday Storm, Arctic Air Arrives After

270 Comments

10:43AM

A rather benign weather day today, probably welcomed by everybody, as temperatures go above freezing allowing more of the melt/refreeze ice to melt away and dry up. It’s not the brightest day as of the writing of this blog, as cloudiness formed by advancing warmer air aloft are blotting out the sun in much of southeastern New England, and will continue to do so through the middle of the day, before decreasing. Had we had the benefit of full sun today, the temperature may have gone into the 45-50 range, but the lack of sun and the still-short sunlight day means that a 40-45 range will be more accurate for most of the region (thought it is already 45 on Martha’s Vineyard as of 10AM).

Turning attention to Sunday’s storm, which will be a rainstorm for the WHW forecast area of southern NH, eastern MA, and RI, it will be the result of a low pressure area moving rapidly north northeastward from the Gulf of Mexico today to crossing southeastern MA by Sunday evening. In an already mild air mass, and with more mild air coming up with the storm, the only place that will be cold enough for snow during the heart of the storm will be the mountains of western and northern New England. As the low passes the region and starts to wrap some colder air in, a mix/change line will try to charge southeastward, but will probably be beaten by the end of the precipitation, which should clear the region by midnight, if not before. If it does snow in some of the higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA, accumulations would be minor. Other aspects of the storm: Rainfall totals of 1 to 1.5 inch, which will fall over a relatively short period of time, resulting in flooding of poor drainage areas; Wind gusts of 40-50 MPH on Cape Cod and the Islands from the SE in advance of the low center, with some minor damage and a few power outages possible.

Beyond the storm: Monday will be a transition day with mixed sun and clouds. Two fronts or boundaries will come through, one around midday to early afternoon, the other in the early evening, from northwest to southeast. This will send us down a proverbial flight of stairs into the deep freeze, which will settle in at night. At this time it looks like both boundaries will come through devoid of snow shower activity, but never completely count out a flurry or squall with the passage of such boundaries.

Arctic cold takes hold: Tuesday, the final day of 2013, and Wednesday-Friday, the first few days of 2014, will likely be dominated by Arctic air. That is the more certain part of the forecast. The less certain part is whether or not any snow will occur at some point during that time. To make a long story short, computer guidance will have trouble “figuring out” what to do with the boundary of the cold air and milder air to the south, and its interaction with pieces of energy moving along it, born of the remains of Pacific weather systems. Scenarios can range from dry weather to one or two near-misses, to a brushing or two with minor snow systems, to a major winter storm. It is just too early to be sure.

For you more model-savvy folks, it’s a well known fact that operational runs of computer guidance will often miss the details so far in advance, while ensemble runs of the same models will pick up on storm threats. Such is the case this time, where the ensembles have been hinting more loudly of a storm threat somewhere along the East Coast in the January 1-4 period, where some of the operational runs have shown nothing, or hinted at something only to take it away on successive runs. These operational models are now starting to hint more at “something happening”. And more detail will come as we get closer to the event. Even with this much known, there is nowhere near enough confidence to forecast a storm of any kind for this area. It’s better to just keep that part of things on the back burner for another day or so, until the energy responsible for the threat is in a place where models start to handle it a little more accurately. So instead of trying to make it seem like I have a confident clue of the outcome up here in southeastern New England, you’ll find a low confidence generic-worded forecast for January 1-3 at the end of this update…

Southeastern New England Forecast…

TODAY: Lots of clouds through early afternoon, increasing sun west to east thereafter. Highs 39-46. Wind SW 10-20 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear in the evening followed by increasing cloudiness later at night. Lows 25-32. Wind SW 5-15 MPH, diminishing.

SUNDAY: Thickening overcast morning. Rain develops rapidly from south to north during the first half of the afternoon and grows heavier during the second half of the afternoon. Heaviest rain early evening, including the chance of thunderstorms Cape Cod & Islands. Rain ending south to north by midnight, but may end as mix/snow in higher elevations of southwestern NH and north central MA where some minor accumulations are possible. Highs in the 40s, may break 50 Cape Cod & Islands, then falling back to the 30s at night. Wind E to SE 10-20 MPH, increasing to 20-30 MPH coastal areas and Cape Cod/Islands, shifting more to the S and SW there toward evening and variable over southeastern MA (where the low tracks), then backing to NE and eventually NW over most of the region, NW to W over the South Coast region. Top wind gusts may reach 30 MPH anywhere near the coast and in higher elevations, and 40-50 MPH Cape Cod & Islands, lighter elsewhere.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Lows in the 20s. Highs around 30 midday but dropping after.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs in the 20s but falling through the 10s for New Year’s Eve. Gusty winds develop and create very cold wind chill values.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Periods of cloudiness and some threat of snow, timing uncertain. Very cold with lows commonly 0-10, highs 10-20, possibly a little higher South Coast.

270 thoughts on “Sunday Storm, Arctic Air Arrives After”

  2. I dont know if id call it consistency, but 2nd gfs run in a row now showing a widespread 10+” of snow for SNE for 1/3 😀

    1. Are you saying the GFS already knows how to handle it? The GFS’s bias is often to overdo the northern stream, not the subtropical one. 🙂

      1. I think the euro will come around to a further north solution. I think the gfs will change further south so it’s a compromise.

  6. The GFS had the right idea with the first winter threat when it had the storm system over the fish while the EURO showed a hit. As we know the EURO came around to the GFS. Will see if that is the case here.

    2. 45 in Boston. They’ve maxed out.

      And the afternoon was expected to turn sunnier after the cloudier morning. All unfolding as expected (other than a bit warmer than I thought over southeastern MA, of which I am sure nobody will complain). 🙂

  10. The COLD facts:

    45 or 50, enjoy today, because this is the last of it for a long, long while.
    Mild in the relative sense tomorrow but a heavy overcast and turning wet – not as easy to enjoy a stroll outside.

    After a transition Monday will drop into below to much below normal temperatures for what may be 10 or more days.

    Before that, Burlington VT has gone above the freezing mark for the first time since the last day of Autumn.

    Caribou ME is working on a record for the number days in a row with measurable snow.

    Parts of the Mid Atlantic may see their coldest weather in over 20 years next week.

    These things are products of a long term colder regime that is underway thanks to a more frequently negative Arctic Oscillation, likely in response to a longer term quieter trend in sunspot activity. The previous trend of positive AO corresponded nicely with the upswing in solar activity. Further, the polar ice caps were at their minimum during the previous phase and are now increasing again in response to more persistent cold near the poles. This was predicted accurately about 10 years ago by a colleague of mine at the SNE Weather Conference.

  11. So with the above facts why did most mets predict a warmer winter this year. Even Judah ignored his own findings with the above October snow for Syberia and was calling for a warmer winter. Of course winter just started but its been cold and going by what your saying its going to stay cold.

    1. Does this mean the trend holds? We are just over a week into winter as you said. I do know that for the first time in a decade we have been able to keep food safely on the porch. It’s been a long while since we have had consistent cold

      1. Time will tell. I say yes it’s more of a long term trend. Does it stay cold all the time? Of course not. 🙂

    2. Judah did say he was not as confident as usual because he was struggling with the AO phase. He did get his “warm up” around the holidays but with the PV coming south again, it’s clear the AO is indeed playing with his forecast.

      That said, it remains to be seen if we ever get a full blast of the PV into the Northeast. Models have a lot of trouble with this thing, and when it undergoes large scale vortex breakdown, the lobes that are produced by it whip around almost unforecastably, if I can create a word there. Makes timing of systems and forecasts of temps very difficult.

      1. Tk you seem to throw little hints out about Judah, do you not like him. I was under the impression that he is very well respected in the field. I believe he said he was not as confidant in the snow part.

        1. Not sure where you read that I don’t like him.

          I watched an interview with him about winter, and he stated he was not sure about the AO this season. And his concerns are coming true. It was actually a compliment to him, recognizing the main issue that could bust his forecast. And I’m not saying his forecast is a bust. Long way to go this winter.

          In fact, his general idea, my general idea, and Barry Burbank’s general idea about this winter were all quite similar.

          1. Just the not confident as usual. He does I believe have a very good record on his winter calls. So with this setup that may be on its way would you say we’re going to get in a snowy period that could put us above for snowfall like I was thinking.

            1. It could go either way.

              I have nothing at all against Judah. He does make his long range calls fairly simple, focusing more on temperature than precipitation, but he makes no bones about it.

              And he has an excellent record.

  12. Just someone on fb said that the 12z euro has a benchmark storm with pressure of 986 mb. Hadi can u confirm?

    1. The TV guys better get their accumulation maps made!

      The general public better get to the grocery store!

      Schools in CT better start extending their vacation for the rest of next week!

      😉

        1. I don’t know. You should go now while it’s above 40 and before it all runs out, or you have to come back home because of the Sunset Warning that will be issued in a while. 😉

  16. Hadi, I misunderstood the snowfall map you posted on previous blog. Thought it was a map for tomoro and I couldn’t believe it. 🙂 🙂

  17. TK or anyone with knowledge. SIL has a skating rink set up. He filled it and half disappeared. I thought it had a leak. He says whenever it rains, it evaporates big time. He is planning on flooding it today cause he says it’ll evaporate with tomorrow’s rain

    Does that make any sense to anyone? Is there a reason its evaporate when it rains?

    1. It would not be evaporating with rain. What I am guessing is when it has thawed enough to be above freezing, common with rain obviously, the frame of the rink is expanding or shifting in such a way that a gap opens up to allow the liquid water out.

  18. Hadi if you could post the amount from the 12z EURO run from accuweather I would appreciate it to see what is showing for CT when you get a chance.
    Many Thanks.

  20. TK what a great post about the cold pattern. Agree completely. Also agree we need a 12-24″ map for all of SNE by tonight’s 6pm news.

    1. Thanks JMA!

      Good thing it’s not a weekday or they’d need to have the map ready by 4PM! 😉

      1. I saw some fear of 1-3 timeframe getting too warm. I laughed. A storm around that time frame has a much better chance of being shunted south and east than being too warm.

  22. I am killing time on my phone as I sit here going through the car buying process. Otherwise I would, just for you!

    1. Good luck with the car-buying! We may be doing that 2 times over in the coming year.

      I drive 2 aging cars that will need more repair than they are worth soon. Thinking of getting 2 new ones at the same time, if the deal is right.

    1. JJ, a very good friend of my fiance’s just bought a house in Watertown 🙂 We’re actually meeting up with her tonight

      1. Enjoy your visit AceMaster. I have lived in Watertown all my life. Its a nice quiet community with a great school system.

  24. Headed down to Falmouth. Went through Wareham and it hit 50. Falmouth back down to 46. Enjoy the warmth. If only we could take a snapshot of the 12Z Euro and make it Tuesday’s!

  26. Bernie Rayno tweet

    @AccuRayno: Euro/GFS more in line for nxt wk.Like Euro better w/ deeper trof.Storm likely up coast, biggest snows New Eng.Arctic Air in place means 12+

      1. Putting #’s on it in a public way (radio, TV, internet, etc.) would be unwise, IMO. Talking about it between bloggers or met to met is fine, because it’s understood (or should be) that it’s all speculation and should not be used for solid planning.

          1. As stated above, I have been unsure of the period of January 1-3 (actually January 1-4 but 4 being outside my 7-day forecast range).

            Based on BEST early info, January 2-3 is the time to watch right now.

    2. SWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEET!!!!!

      Thank you. OF course, it’s still about 5 or 6 days out.

      Let’ hope the only change is to make it more intense. 😀

  28. Hate to say it, but ive seen a euro snowfall map like that a couple times this winter only to be disappointed in the end. Not biting yet

    1. Wise idea (from a snow lover’s perspective).
      The skeptical are less likely disappointed.
      If it doesn’t verify, you are not surprised.
      If it verifies, you are nicely surprised.

  30. I am not biting either. I am thinking the cold dry air might be strong enough to keep most if not all of that storm offshore. When the winter weather alerts go up then I will start to get excited.

  31. i know what the models are showing but im a little skeptical right now, i am worried that this moves south of the region. even if we do not get a storm durring that time period we could still see snow showers as a reinforcing front moves through. This front im afraid could also help stear this system out?

  34. Ok, now, before we all get on board with the Euro, here is a sobering thought.

    Here’s this maps version of the Operational run:

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-opertc2.cgi?time=2013122812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=144hr

    And now the Ensemble Mean:

    http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ecmwf-ensmeantc2.cgi?time=2013122812&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=144hr

    Just NOTICE how much weaker this is and HOW far off shore it is, suggesting that
    many Ensemble members want to shunt this thing OTS and of course keep it weaker.

    CAUTION is the WORD.

  35. Good word caution. As I said earlier I am wondering if the cold air is strong enough to keep this storm mostly if not totally offshore. A lot of model runs to go and many days out so you know this is going to change.

  36. Im no expert here and dont pretend to be, but, looking at this map of the euro, https://scontent-a-lga.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/1524595_625453090835286_493137528_n.png
    it looks like what’s causing this thing to get up into our area more instead of OTS is the flow around the other area of low pressure in central canada. Its forcing is the area of high pressure thats the center of the cold air back up into canada just north of new england putting it in an ideal location.

  37. OS, even though the euro ensemble mean is further south and weaker than the op run, its been slowly trending further north and stronger with each run

    1. Agreed, but no time to get excited yet, as much as I want to be! :D:D

      let’s see if we can get some model consistency.

    2. To an extent, the 12Z Euro supports some sort of change over as well, albeit for a briefer period.

      Is something up? OR is this FICTION?

      We shall see. Dying to see 0Z runs

      1. I know, I saw that.

        We shall see. I still think it is a major development.

        I can’t wait to see 0z run. It could be a function of it being
        the 18Z.

  40. 18Z GFS takes 1/2-1/3 much more OTS and only really grazes us with a couple of
    inches of snow. Still running.

    1. Yea not putting much stock in the 18z gfs run at this point but its a shift south. SE Ma and cape storm, close to a foot down there on that run, about 6 in boston but ratios will be real high with any snow from this one

      1. Given the setup, this is actually a very plausible outcome. I think whatever happens, areas to the south end up with more this time around

  41. I’m no expert but I’ve been wondering all day why a storm that slides to the south and east of us in late Dec couldn’t produce its own cold air especially with the qpf spit out by the models. I have also been watching the obs at my Washington all day and the temp has been around 16 degrees all day. Whether or not that means there is sufficient cold higher up I don’t know…I’m with OS anxiously waiting on the 0z run of the nam

    1. The storm will generate its own cold air, but mostly as it goes by and gets beyond the region. It’s all relative. The air is not cold enough ahead of it, and the storm itself will be dragging warm air with it (independent of the cold air it will generate as it matures). It will benefit the mountains this time.

      That’s the thing about weather, it’s not quite as clean-cut as in the text books. Every case is slightly different.

    2. The answer is: it can and it is possible. Not saying it will. Just saying it can.

      Btw, Don Kent used to call Mt. Washington, New England’s snow barometer.
      😀 😀

  42. you have to look at all levels of the atmosphere some of the levels are too warm even though at that level showed is cold enough that looks like freezing rain or sleet situation

      1. Here’s the map for the same hour, 35:

        http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013122818&time=INSTANT&var=MXTMP&hour=035

        Max temp between 2M and 500MB in Boston area is between
        0 and 2.5C. Since that is about the same as the 2M temperature map, I’m guessing that is where it is warmest
        and the column is cold the rest of the way up.

        Here’s the 2M temp but it is in F.
        Shows about 35 for boston area.

        That’s about a match. 😀

  45. 00Z NAM still drops 850mb temps under 0 boston southward toward the end of tomorrows storm but still no accumulation, other layers still too warm

    1. Just looked at the energy in upper levels and that is not onshore until later Tuesday in the northern stream, so may not get too much agreement until then.

  47. Thanks for keeping us posted Ace and North. Let’s hope the trend keeps it right along the benchmark and we get a decent amount of snow.

  48. Up in Lowell today, visiting the relatives. Decent amount of snow up there, all the way down to Stoneham at the Stone Zoo which we stopped at this evening on the way back to check out the lights.

    Was just watching tv weathercasts and seeing all the snow potential talk for later in the week. Thought, I should sneak a peak at the 12z EURO run to see what I missed ….. and now I see why. 🙂

  49. Of course, if we start seeing consistency Sunday of an event, then by
    Wednesday or Thursday, we’ll find out its headed for a track over ………. SE Mass.

  50. Well for the Pats, it looks like a messy game. Rain totals will probably be in the inch to inch and a half range and winds are likely to increase after 6 or 7 PM. Just yucky!

  51. Thanks, TK.

    My mother passed away earlier this morning. I just want to thank all those who have given good wishes while she was ill. I will be going to my sister’s shortly so I won’t be looking at my computer until tonight. In a way I am glad we are just having rain as a big snowstorm right now would be tough as my sister and me have so much to do in the next few days. I’m kind of numb right now but I think there might be a snowstorm early in the week? Anyway, just wanted to let people know.

    2. I’m very sorry for your loss. May she rest in peace, and remain with you in your best memories of her. Thinking of you and your family.

    3. I’m so very sorry for your loss, rainshine. I’m sending hugs to you and Marc and your sister. Godspeed to your mom. Heaven has another special angel….a Christmas angel.

    4. Rainshine, So sorry for your loss. I know you have had a really tough 2013. My thoughts are with you and your family. Cherish the time with your family these next few days as you look back at all of the best memories of your Mom. I am sure she was a great person.

  58. I’m sorry to hear about your mother Rainshine. I will say a prayer for her.

    Rainshine I hope you find strength and peace knowing that she is in the Lord’s hands and will always be looking down on you and your family with tremendous love!

  60. Models starting to waffle around again but i do think we get something. Just depends on the strength. Even if all the pieces dont come together perfectly i think most still get at least some snow. One thing i am certain on is we don’t get rain this time around. Euro took a step back from the monster it was showing yesterday but still gives us a moderate snowfall. 00Z Euro and last few runs of the GFS are actually in pretty good agreement. We’ll see how long that lasts.

      1. NWS take:

        THURSDAY…SOUTHERN STREAM SURFACE LOW MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY AND JUMPS TO COAST SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. AS NOTED
        EARLIER…THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH THE JUMP AND SO ALSO SLOWER IN MOVING THE SYSTEM OFF TO THE EAST LATER AT NIGHT. TEMPERATURE
        PROFILES POINT TO SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE AXIS OVER QUEBEC WILL MAINTAIN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA AS THE LOW PASSES TO OUR
        SOUTH. THIS WOULD MEAN A MARINE INFLOW FROM THE GULF OF MAINE OVER OUR AREA. PUT IT TOGETHER…AN PERIOD OF SNOW MUCH OF THE DAY AND EARLY NIGHT. IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT…THE SNOW MIGHT START A LITTLE LATER AND THEN END FRIDAY MORNING. WE WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW.

        1. For an explanation of WHY a system “jumps” to the coast, here is a nice discussion from AccuWeather in response to a question:

          There are a number of reasons as to why a storm will “transfer its’ energy” to the coast and they’re fairly well understood. Before I get into that, however, I will note that the phrase included here is a bit of a misnomer… there is no true energy transfer, just better forcing for lift in a different location and thus a deepening low elsewhere.

          Regardless, when a storm system moves into the Ohio Valley there is typically an area of high pressure over or nosing into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Thanks to the Appalachian mountains relatively cold air will bleed southward preceding the event and set up a strong baroclinic zone (temperature gradient). This is one factor that leads to low pressure developing along the coast — strong temperature gradients are prime locations for low pressure to deepen (and do so rapidly).

          A Second factor has to do with differential positive vorticity advection in the mid/upper-levels of the atmosphere. Sounds complicated and is from a mathematical standpoint, but the impact to a forecast is easy to deduce (thankfully!). Just remember that increasingly cyclonic curvature is good and leads to lift, and the opposite is true for increasingly anticyclonic curvature. Many times when a storm moves into the Ohio Valley it occludes… basically what happens is that the storm becomes vertically stacked (or nearly so) such that the surface low and mid/upper-level lows are essentially right on top of each other. When this happens there isn’t any change in the cyclonic curvature over the surface low… but farther downstream over coastal areas, the flow aloft is becoming more increasingly cyclonic, and this would support the development and intensification of a low at the surface.

          Lastly, jet streaks will frequently manifest themselves in such a way as to support the development and intensification of the coastal low versus the primary low over the Ohio Valley…

          Hopefully this helps some… if the technical vocabulary is confusing then I apologize, but I will certainly answer to the best of my ability any questions you may have!

  61. Tk,

    Word Press up to something? I keep seeing ADS on the lower right portion
    of my screen. Very irritating. I can’t see any obvious malicious software running.

    1. Not sure why they are doing that.

      Eventually I am going to be using some form of it anyway because the blog will eventually become something a little more beneficial for me.

      1. TK, If you need to run them to support the blog, not a problem.

        IS it WordPress? DO you see them as well? Or Do I have something on my computer?

        Thanks

  62. Water Temperatures:

    Buoy A0102 – Mass. Bay/Stellwagen
    (44029) 42.52N 70.57W
    Last Updated: Dec 29 2013, 9:04 am EST

    Water Temperature: 42.4 °F (5.8 °C)

    BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA
    (44013) 42.346N 70.651W
    Last Updated: Dec 29 2013, 8:50 am EST

    Water Temperature: 43.2 °F (6.2 °C)

  64. You guys up in the Boston area do very well with the snowfall with the latest run of the GFS. Nice to 6-10 inches here in CT. Now I am wondering with the cold air in place will the snow ratios be higher thus accumulating more snow than projected. I remember when a storm back in 2003 in February prior to the Presidents Storm with those higher snow ratios the snowfall accumulation map kept changing every few hours in the upward direction.

      1. With the cold air in places should this storm affect us I see a lot of areas getting a snoworama maybe a bit of mixorama far southeastern parts of SNE.

    1. Isn’t that pretty. Only IF…At least if show what “could” happen if
      everything lines up just perfectly. 😀 😀

      Chances of that happening: Nearly ZILCH, but not zero. 😀 😀

  69. I think this is going to be a much weaker storm than what some models indicate. I think we see something though. Just a gut feeling. Hopefully I am wrong.

  73. The 12z EURO will interesting to see what tune it sings. I don’t see this being a fish storm right now. Its a question of how much snowfall. Of course many days away and a lot could change.

    1. I can see more of it on fish than not and weaker.

      I like that FIM run.

      Euro will tell much for sure.

      There is still time.

        1. Still have snow cover here. I was looking out the window as I had coffee and listened to music this morning surprised at how covered we remain. It is certainly not deep, but it is cover. 0-1 is not snowless unless it is 0

  78. So far, 12z euro developing this whole thing slower, not seeing a coastal low at all yet through 96 hr.

    1. That outcome if definately on the table. Trend has been more north and have not seen an outcome since a few days ago of a complete miss. We get something.

  82. I was saying that yesterday Charlie about the cold air but the more data that comes in and off course this could change it looks like were going to get something as I sit here and type this at 1:30 in the afternoon on Sunday watching footbal.

    1. The maps from that site always make storms “look” stronger because they contour every 2 mb instead of every 4 mb. 🙂

  85. I do think we get snow just after the new year, but not sold on big amounts, I’m not even going to begin throwing numbers around, I will just say that I feel confident saying a light to perhaps moderate snow event is quite possible

  86. Well, at the very least, the 12Z Euro did NOT have an OTS scenario.

    Looking interesting. Certainly things can change.

    Let’s just say so far, so good. 😀

    Waiting on Wundermap to see an idea of qpf and snowfall.

    Go PATS. Stay dry.

    1. hmmm, thought it would be more qpf. Still, with high ratios we could easily exceed a foot according to that run. Hadi, does that run introduce some warmer air before the coastal low takes over? Mixing issues?

  90. Finally got a shot at wundermap, not nearly as impressive as i first thought. Coastal low takes over too late and too far east

    1. Hi Vicki. Nothing for us wednesday, at least not from the potential storm, maybe a flurry or 2 but thats about it. Its thursday into friday for the goods, probably thurs afternoon – night, but could change.

  92. Not ready ace. Also I strongly recommend that we be patient with this storm. It’s in an area that lacks data so I think no model has a handle on anything yet. By tomorrow night we should have a much better handle. I think double digit snows is very possible but where is the big question.

    1. Hadi-That map is really hard to read because of the sharp accumulation changes. I am kind of using the mass pike a benchmark landmark with it.

      Looks to me that it is forecasting a 9-12 MA Pike region and north and then a narrow sliver of 6-9 south of the pike and then a wider area of 3-6 SE MA, Cape, Southern half of RI and Southern CT.

      2. Front the looks of it to me it has about 12 inches running from just south of the pike north. 6-8 south shore. I use the map just as an idea of where the change of accumulation happens more so than the totals. I don’t think they are very good to figure out amounts.

  95. I am very concerned about the weather’s effect on the Patriots game.

    Want to give Ridley the ball ?? …. He struggles to hold on to it when its dry.

    Buffalo’s biggest threat, their run game. Patriots, the pass. I’d think the pass game is more affected by rainy, wet conditions than a running game.

    I read very little into last week’s result. I think Buffalo is much more of a challenge than Baltimore, at this point.

    1. And I also agree.

      I wouldn’t even play Ridley in this weather.

      Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola best be on their games today!!
      And vareen needs a big game as well.

      As for running, I’d keep giving it to Blount. He’s a Horse!

  96. Looking at the Wundermap and Hadi’s snow map, I am not impressed.

    How does Boston get 1.01 qpf and only 6-9 inches of snow?? Something is out of whack here. Does it warm enough at 2M to make the ratio go way down?

  97. I agree Tom. This is one of those classic trap games. But this game is a must win for the pats. Not good if they loose and would not be devestating but so,so much better with a win. Weather looks to be a big impact for this game. I told a coworker of mine ridly must go. But my uncle was saying last night Faulk was a fumbler in his early days but look how he turned out. But bb is a tough guy to work for.

  99. Both the 12z runs of GFS and EURO give me 6 inches of snow where I am in CT. I am hoping that doesn’t decrease as the week goes on. It would be nice to see the total on the models increase.

  100. Early feeling…

    The PV plays a major role. It wobbles around, sometimes with little rounded spikes (shortwave troughs) and other times with a flatter, more sheered bottom-side. What I think happens is that the system never really gets a chance to become a major storm, as in one dominant low, but becomes a pulled apart mass of energy that acts more like a long string of overunning as the relative warmth associated with it rides up over the wedge of Arctic air. This brings periods of snow from Wednesday night through early Friday. Significant accumulations are possible, especially the further south and east you are, but this set-up would be much less likely to produce a major blockbuster storm, or classic northeaster. It does have the potential to end up being an ocean-effect machine, because of the high to the north creating a long fetch of ENE wind. A bit too early for being sure about this.

    Leaning this way and will be reflected in The Week Ahead post coming up later this afternoon.

    2. I don’t think the jet stream gets it’s negative tilt on fast enough to slow things down and allow it to get organized. I do agree on a long duration of light snowfall, which adds up in high snow ratios. Eastern areas may see some ocean enhancement for a bit as well. Complicated forecast.

      For what it’s worth, CIPS Analogs of the 12z GFS show a good swath of 6-9″ for most of SNE.
      http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/COLD/F120/EC_120/COOPmeangfs212F120.png

  101. All I am going to say now, I’m glad I will be in the Boston area on Thursday, rather than at my college in northern VT. I think at least a low impact event can be expected with all this potential moisture running into an arctic air-mass. I’ll certainly be busy this week!

      1. Making progress! I made it through my first semester of calculus…barely. I am taking my first year of core classes in meteorology, pretty basic stuff. I am awaiting higher level meteorology classes in the coming years. I am home on break till the third week of January, so I will be posting on here more with all my free time.

  102. Could this be something like we had last year in Feb i believe where the storm was far to the east but was sending batches of snow westward due to the strong pressure gradient between the intensifying low to the east and the strong arctic high?

    1. That set up in March was like getting 30″ of snow from a storm system centered 1000 miles off shore. Once in a life time.

      1. I talked to a couple colleagues who believe a set-up like that is more rare than one like the 1978 Blizzard.

        1. I could only imagine so. I should have worded it more properly. It was 1000 miles past us! Same distance from here to Missouri. Simply insane.

  103. I hope that is not the case since I missed out on the snow from that one. I remember was the storm right after the blizzared.

  104. Its looks downright miserable at the pats game. Good thing they got rid of natural field grass, it would have been even more sloppy

  106. If anyone here follows DT on wxrisk.com, he’s getting slammed on social media for being wrong about this storm. He’s been calling for it to be a big storm for the mid-atlantic and points south since before xmas. Not sure why he’s throwing in the towel already, last time I checked its still 4 days away. We all know nothing is set in stone.

      1. I agree. He is smart and knows his stuff but where I think he rubs people the wrong way is his delivery. People think his discussions are forecasts bc of the way he presents his info, very matter of fact and cocky. When questioned he rudely rips people. IMO he deserves all the crap he’s getting from people even though his forecast isnt technically wrong yet. I’ve always believed what goes around comes around.

    1. That’s rain. It’s from a camera that is covering the entire width of the field. Makes any precip. look a lot heavier.

    2. I was thinking the same thing Vicki! I think it was just the way the drops were puddling. My house is about 5 miles from the stadium and i can tell u its just raining.

  108. Quebec & Montreal, especially Quebec, have shots at all time record cold temperature, for their Thursday morning lows.

    1. Almost over. Done in your area about 8, stars out by 11 if not before.

      Rainfall forecast is going to verify nicely.

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