A Clipper And A Classic?

690 Comments

7:59PM

** EDITED FOR A SLIGHT DOWNGRADE TO SNOW AMOUNTS **

Firstly, let me answer the question posed in the blog title: Yes, and no.

Secondly, allow me to give my reasoning for both answers, leading to a First Night forecast, and my attempt to describe why the late-week snow event will not likely be a classic “northeaster”, as some like to call them, but in some ways may resemble one, for at least parts of the region: An Arctic cold front passed through the region during Monday, with less fanfare than might be expected from such a boundary. Nevertheless, it’s through, and the Arctic air may not be blasting in via the Montreal Express, but it is oozing into the region like a cloud of dry ice, and once it is in place, it will be hanging around for a while. The clipper system will be rather small and of light to moderate strength, as far as such systems go, and will track across central and northern New England Tuesday afternoon and evening. A northerly track of a system like this generally produces little in the way of precipitation (snow in this case) for southeastern New England, but some snow shower activity is expected, mainly along the leading edge of a boundary which will serve to reinforce the Arctic air as we count down the final hours of 2013. When we flip the calendar to 2014, it’ll be very cold but dry and with a gusty breeze, air temperatures in the teens and wind chill values being driven down toward zero at times. If you plan to be outside, please dress appropriately…

…As many people are sleeping off the results of their late-night on New Year’s Day (Wednesday), the cold will be firmly established, setting the stage for the next event. As is often the case, the various computer models offer a variety of solutions when trying to come up with how this event will unfold. The most in-common thing between them all is the cold remains in place, and snow falls in the region during a prolonged period that starts as early as Wednesday night (more likely early Thursday morning) and ends sometime Friday. The majority of the models depict a variation of my initial thoughts on this system, a stretched out area of low pressure, possibly with more than one center, tracking south of where most of your classic storms would track. One model has been a little more aggressive in predicting a stronger, dominant low, taking the classic track for a big time snowstorm. It must be noted that even though I am not on board with the classic set up, the model forecasting it has a decent track record and the solution cannot be completely ignored. I do feel that an outcome more like the other models is what eventually takes place. However, that does not mean that we hardly get any snow. This particular set up, with a strong Arctic high to the north, plenty of cold air, a boundary nearby, some instability at mid levels of the atmosphere lifting into the region, and a long fetch of east to northeast winds from the ocean between the low to the south and the high to the north, all combine to still produce significant snowfall amounts through most of the region (significant being 4 inches or more in a fairly widespread fashion). With the cold air dominating, snow to water ratios will be fairly high, so it will not take a lot of liquid equivalent precipitation to pile up a good amount of snow, which will be very low water content. A difference between this set up and one like we saw on December 17 will be that the accumulation with the upcoming event occurs over nearly 2 days’ time, versus the 3 to 4 hour week-before-Christmas rush-hour dumping of snow we saw on December 17. This will lessen the overall impact of the snow, though will not render it insignificant, so caution still must be practiced.

In case you had difficulty staying awake during the description above, allow me to summarize where we have gone so far, before we move on…

*Tuesday: Fairly weak clipper system, few snow showers for the early part of First Night activities, no significant accumulation, then clearing, windy, and very cold for the countdown to midnight.

*Longer-duration snow event begins overnight Wednesday night and lasts into early Friday.

*Snow amounts of at least 4 inches are very possible over most of the region, with an early call on highest amounts being in northeastern MA and southern NH (based on where I think a heavier snow band may set up from air lifting over a boundary), and along the eastern coast of MA (due to ocean-enhanced snowfall).

*Snow impact much less than December 17 because of the more drawn-out event and possibly lower amounts.

*I have not mentioned this yet, but may need to watch for minor coastal flooding at high tide times because of a long-fetch east to northeast wind.

After it’s done: Bitterly cold Arctic air pours into the region Friday afternoon and night with strong winds and very low wind chill values. Coldest air of the season so far lingers into Saturday. Temperatures moderate Sunday ahead of the next weather system, though timing of it is uncertain. For now will hold it off until Monday when there will be a chance of rain or snow.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TONIGHT: Clouds hang on southeastern areas, then more arrive from the west by dawn. Lows 8-18, coldest interior valleys. Wind NW up to 10 MPH.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Scattered snow showers mainly during the afternoon hours. Highs 22-30, coldest interior hills. Wind W 10-20 MPH.

TUESDAY NIGHT – NEW YEAR’S EVE: Variably cloudy with scattered snow showers early, but no significant snow accumulation, only brief dustings possible. Clearing later. Lows 10-18. Wind NW 10-20 MPH gusting 25-30 MPH. Wind chill frequently below 10.

WEDNESDAY –  NEW YEAR’S DAY: Bright sunny start, overcast grey sky conclusion. Highs 18-25. Wind W 10-15 MPH early, diminishing to near calm.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Periods of snow. Low 10. High 20.

FRIDAY: Cloudy with periods of snow into midday. Breaking clouds afternoon. Winds increase. Low 8. High 15.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Low -4. High 18.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Low 16. High 36.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain or snow. Low 32. High 40.

690 thoughts on “A Clipper And A Classic?”

  5. Thanks–my daughter just got a job as an EMT and she’s working Thursday afternoon into Friday, so I’m hoping for a very manageable snow event–everyone driving nice and carefully and very very slooooowly.

  6. Thanks TK! We haven’t had more than a couple of inches down here in Plymouth so I will take six inches at this point.

    1. You did it!!!! Thanks TK. I wish the pic were better but as I said it was from a moving car through the window. It was an awesome sky!!!

  8. Thanks TK! I am just so thankful it won’t be a repeat of the 17th…my 3 1/2 traffic nightmare. Let’s see how this one plays out…

    2. Pete saying not sure if that would be north or south. Going by what tk said north shore will probably get the highest amounts.

      2. I was at Stop & Shop and CVS this afternoon and there was definitely the beginnings of a big rush on milk and yes…I picked up a gallon myself along with a six pack of rolls. 😉

    1. It was very good but he is still thinking less north and tk thinks more north. Either way he seems to know his stuff.

  14. NWS has most of SNE in the hazardous weather outlook. This sometimes is the pre curser to some sort of watch or advisory.

    1. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN…TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

      THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

      MINOR COASTAL FLOODING OR SPLASHOVER IS POSSIBLE AT THE MIDDAY HIGH TIDES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY…MAINLY ALONG THE EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS COASTLINE.

      BELOW ZERO WIND CHILLS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILLS OF 15 TO 25 BELOW FRIDAY NIGHT.

  16. Assuming this storm behaves itself as TK is thinking, the slow long duration of accumulating snow should be fairly manageable for the plow crews.

    My bet is the usual 6-12″…with some locals of 14-18″.

  19. More DT shenanigans:

    Wxrisk.com
    *** TIME TO THINK ABOUT THE B-WORD FOR NEW ENGLAND***

    Folks …if the 12z monday european model is correct ,.. and it almost always is at the time frame.. the New England and NYC and N NJ … it is time to think about the ***B word **

    😀 😀

    2. But you know the nam is over doing every storm we have had. What needs to be looked at is what model has been the closest with the past events, and there sure have been events.

    3. Winds never really go beyond NNE on that run, not so good for ocean enhancement.

      Compaction would not allow those values to be realized as well.

  28. Just cant ignore the consistency of at least a foot of snow from all major models for days now. Each one has the low in a different position, different strength, different evolution of events but one thing is constant, the foot+ in and around boston. Chances of the models completely changing is pretty low

  34. Those temperatures for Saturday morning in the wake of whatever snowfall we are going get with many negative numbers for lows.

  36. Bernie Rayno tweet and he has been very good so far.

    @AccuRayno: For those looking at the NAM, no need to tweet me.You know my answer.I refuse to look at NAM until 24 hrs before event.worst of all models

    1. Not a very good endorsement there Hadi. 24 hours out and I’m looking out my damn window forget the models so what good is it then!

    1. I remember that blizzard where I felt I got gipped with only a foot snow where many areas in eastern New England had close to if not exceed two feet.

          1. Your welcome Vicki. If this storm meets the criteria for our meteorologist here at our CBS affiliate in CT it will be called Bethany.

  46. NAM pretty tame for the NAM….General 0.5 to .75 in SNE.

    Be careful with the snow ratios. All time recorded record is 29:1 recorded at Caribou, ME. Average climo is 11:1 in Metro Boston. I think we exceed climo easily, but getting to 20:1 is pretty rare and more difficult than it seems even with very cold dry, air. Somewhere in the 15:1 range seems prudent.

  47. It will be to watch this unfold over the next several days.

    Charlie has become a bore….nothing more needs to be said.

    1. That the common theme continues …… ignore the ocean storm …… Its a bit of mid-level lift combined with ocean effect into a very cold airmass that will be able to deliver some snow to southern New England and maybe more in areas that sit under a good ocean effect band.

  49. I don’t see a northward trend with the next run. I am thinking its a little further south than the previous run.

  51. For me where I am in CT The GFS its back to what is several runs prior to the 12z run for me in CT showing that 6-9 inch snowfall.

  53. GFS similar to NAM, but slightly more robust. I wont get quite as exact as Hadi, but a general .6-.9. A bit more in extreme NE MA and SNH. Generally the early call of 6-12″ over 36 hours in SNE seems like a good one. Interesting thing is you could go a 24 hour period in some areas and not get to 7″ or warning criteria. It might take all 36 hours or so to reach 8-10″ in places.

  54. Hr 48 to Hr 84 at 850mb tells a story. At hrs 48 and 60, the winds are light from the SW and S. This, I’d think, would be the time light snows are moving in from the west, due to some overrunning. It looks like hr 72 is the center of the timeframe to get the measureable snows. The 850 mb winds are from the east and that should be throwing some Atlantic moisture into a very cold dome air.

    By 84 hrs, the 850 mb winds are coming around to the north and by that time, the snow should be tapering off inland, perhaps continuing near and close to the coast.

  56. This is what Joe B just posted… Comments anyone? What time does the Euro come out?

    Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1m

    As usual GFS too far east with development as stronger 500 pattern argues for low off Delmarva, north se ACK. Error looks typical to me

  58. Go north of say 50N Latitude in all of eastern Canada and its a challenge to find a temperature milder than 25F below zero.

  59. That run looked kind of strange….there was a second low that developed back further at hour 87 and that became more dominant and goes down to 948mb in the North Atlantic.

  60. The 12z runs should tell a more agreeable solution tomorrow since the energy will have come ashore. It will be interesting to see which models stay with what they have had.

  61. 0Z GFS looks crappy, Still drops 12-14 inches on Boston.

    BUT I don’t like it at all. Main storm way off shore.
    Snow intensity just not there. Many many hours of mainly light snow.

    Big deal. 😀

    Will be checking Euro first thing in AM. Nite all.

  64. From what I’m seeing from the ooz runs of gfs and euro things look like they are starting to head OTS..Hopefully I’m wrong.

  65. As expected, the 00z Euro is trending toward the consensus of all other guidance of a more strung-out, less powerful and further southward-displaced system. This is simply in response to the PV position and the lack of perfect blocking. A high pressure area in a great position helps, but is not a guarantee.

    Edited blog slightly to take a little bit off my 1st guess amounts.

  66. Tom, the wind appears to switch to the north and north east Thursday Morning around 3am. Should we expect the intensity of the snow to pick up then?

    1. I dont think so. I think its Thursday evening, into Thursday night that represents our best timeframe to get the most snow for our region. Its when the best tapping of Atlantic moisture should be occuring.

  67. We’ll get respectable snow out of it but the clipper from a couple of weeks ago will seem more impressive in impact.

  68. DISAPPOINTED AGAIN!!!

    The Euro has been nothing but a big TEASE!!! The GFS had the right idea all along.

    Both the 06Z NAM and 06Z GFS wants to give us about a foot, which probably means
    we get 6-9 inches is all. What a bitter disappointment to wake up to this.

    TK and JMA were spot on as usual. Nice job guys!!

    NAM snow map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013123106&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=084

    GFS snow map:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2013123106&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=090

    CMC qpf map”

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&type=SN&lang=en&map=na

    That’s about .6 inches so with a 15:1 ratio that equates to about 9 inches.
    10:1 6 inches, thus 6-9.

    Looks like the CMC has nailed this one all along. 😀

  69. Ok folks thats a wrap, the mighty euro has spoken. Thurs and fri will be partly sunny 🙂 (sense the sarcasm). More runs to go, more data to sample. Starting today we should start getting more accurate guidance. One thing that concerns me is how the NWS will deal with warnings and advisories. Theres no criteria beyond a 24 hr snowfall.

    1. 2 day Snow advisory. 😀 😀

      It CAN’T be Winter Storm Warning.
      How about Winter Storm flopapalooza!!

  71. Latest fron NWS:

    OVERALL APPEARS THAT AT LEAST 0.5 INCHES OF QPF WILL
    FALL THROUGHOUT THE EVENT WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY NEAR THE EAST COASTLINE. FINALLY WITH PERSISENT NORTHEAST WIND…THERE IS
    A POSSIBILITY OF OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. LOOKING AT ALL OF
    THESE FACTORS…THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT AT LEAST 6
    INCHES OF SNOW WILL OCCUR WITH POSSIBLE HIGHER AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE EAST AND SE COASTLINES.

    1. Interesting that they simply say ocean effect snow showers.
      Really? Showers? In my lifetime I have seen HEAVY snow (Vis 1/4 mile or less)
      in Boston from Ocean Effect snow. Showers? Huh?

      So the showers enhance the other stuff?

      We “may” just get surprised yet along the coast. 😀 😀

  73. Continuing to follow trends on the cmc, I due expect a trend southward with models trending lower in qpf, we shall see

  76. You know, after I see what’s in store for us next, why have it snow at all now???????

    Let the PV shunt the whole system to Bermuda for all I care(!@*#(!(@*(!*@(#*)

  77. After this , are we gonna have another monsoon rainstorm to wash it away 48hrs after it falls, it look like that is very possible

  82. Is the axis of heaviest snow still supposed to be northern MA into southern NH? If thats still the case i only see a very small area where significant snowfall is achieved. I only say this bc if we are counting on ocean effect to get us here in eastern MA, we need winds off the ocean. If this is weaker and further OTS winds will be lighter and become less of a factor in getting us that ocean effect.

  84. I will enjoy it just like I do with all of the storms. Fondu and raclette tonight with friends and their kids. Then battle of the sexes once the kids are asleep.

  85. Euro probably not right for Tuesday. Just like this one it showed a monster storm a few days ago. GFS is much weaker and further SE.

  86. Don’t see any reason to vary from the thoughts of yesterday. Yes the ECMWF has weakened but that was expected.

    Some thoughts on the 00z data suite-general QPF is .5-.9 throughout SNE which would still translate to 6-12″.

    Looking at some ensemble data i notice that 5 of 16 GEFS members have less than 0.5 over most of the area and only 2 have more than 0.75 and they are just barely over that amount. The rest are clustered right between 0.5 and 0.75.

    The ECWMF Ensemble Mean has about 0.6 from Cape Ann to Cape Code Canal and about 20 miles inland from those areas. Outisde of the ensemble is anamously light with only about 0.25-0.5 throughout SNE.

    SREF is somewhat similar with a nice signal for ocean enhancement and about 0.6 from Cape Ann to Duxbury and about 0.5 to 20 miles inland. Outside of that it to drop to the 0.25-0.5 range.

    The band of increased lift that I thought might set up over NE MA, SNH is not present in the ensemble data, but not ruling anything out or in yet. Ensemble data seems to keep it west of SNE. Not sure if that will prove true.

    The dew points are in the single digits and there will be a period overnight into the early hours of Thursday that will prevent some early snow from reaching the ground. But the column should permeate without much issue after that. Bigger concern is the rush of mid and low level dry air that comes in after midnight into the wee hours of Friday. With the exception of the immediate shoreline this could shorten this forecasted long duration event, with a rapid shut off of accumulating precip.

  87. My reasoning for dropping to at least 4 instead of at least 6 is purely the lack of trust for ocean-effect and a little less faith in the QP forecasts by the models. You can call it covering my ass but if I say at least 4 and everyone gets 6, it still works.

    I learned the idea from BB – Bill…ummm I mean Barry. Just kidding Hadi. 🙂

  88. The tough thing with Ocean effect is you can have 8″ in one locale and 4″ in the same community less than 2 or 3 miles away.

  89. I am not disappointed. I never expected this to be a blockbuster or back breaker of a storm. I have been thinking a weaker storm all along and with that push of cold air the low pressure center does not go a little further south and east of the benchmark. I am thinking a solid level 2 snowfall event 4-8 5-10 inch storm at the moment.

  92. I see tweets from people like Bastardi who are not dumb, but seemingly ignore all other data because they want it to snow, and I just laugh. Same thing with those who throw out Blizzard 60 hours out. I get it, everyone wants to see the “big one,” everyone wants to say they called it, but come on….All of those limiting factors that I wrote about at 6pm last night were there for everyone to see and doesn’t take a decreed meteorologist to see them and to not acknowledge them is a disservice to the profession and the public. At 48 hours out I still leave plenty of room to enhance or lessen my forecast. Why is that so hard for so many pro’s to do?

    We still have to see how the northern shortwave interacts with the mean eastern trough at 500mb and how quickly it deepens, what kind of tilt evolves, all of this is unknown even now. How much dry air is present at the start, how quickly does mid level drying take place? It is okay to leave room for error in your forecast….

  94. Numbers at 48 hours-For weather enthusiasts on a blog only…If I were doing a snow map right now.
    6-10 East Facing Coastal locations
    5-7 3 miles inland to about 495
    3-6 outside of those noted areas above

    1. Thanks JMA – I am assuming these are numbers for MA only?? Would they be similar for north and south of MA or less to the north? Thanks to both you and TK for your morning posts, thoughts and explanations.

    4. Thanks JMA for all of your thoughts. TK too. The grounded insight you both provide is very much appreciated!

    1. You know, it’s funny, but they have a double arrow to indicate that
      the track could shift in either direction. 😀 😀 😀

      They should have ONLY a RIGHT pointing arrow to indicate that
      the tack can ONLY shift East!! 😀 😀

  96. I’ve just gotten a 10th call on this impending blizzard that everyone has been seeing on tv lol, I’ve told every single one, it will be no blizzard, we will receive 3-6, maybe 4-8 inches, and they all say,, oh,,, it’s crazy what the news people did yesterday with a number of mets saying a foot plus, so glad I don’t watch it, anyways happy new year everyone 🙂 but they got everyone talking, that’s what they want 🙂

  97. Bottom line is right now and I know this could change but an accumulating snowfall looks likely. This however is not going to be a major snow producer. I am thinking a level 2 snow event which is a moderate snowfall of 5-10 inches. If anything this may have to get lowered.

  98. With a weaker storm and further south and east im guessing there will be much less of a coastal flooding threat and much less in the way of winds

      1. See above graphic from NWS.
        They “seem” to think that there will still be an impact.

        But, of course, we all know that they can be full of crap! 😀 😀

        1. thanks OS ! I’m sure that noon Friday tide is going to have some issues. There simply is no room for any surge due to the height of the tide.

  99. I just read that Chicago could bottom out at -10 Monday night/Tuesday Morn. Wondering if those temps, or slightly modified version are heading our way sometime early next week?

      1. I saw that, OS. Just curious as to whether or not the Sun/Mon warm up will be short lived, or prolonged further into the week?

  103. This will still be fun ……

    It wont be one of those events where there is an explosion of precip down around NYC and south of Long Island and we watch it track northeast.

    I think, instead, there’ll be a band of snow moving from wsw to ene Thursday morning, that may fizzle overhead for a while Thursday afternoon, early evening.

    I think Thursday night should be fun to watch the radar fill in overhead and see if any convergent bands develop anywhere.

    1. Yeah, like right over Marshfield.

      Are you very close to the Water or back some?

      We shall see what happens. The colder it is, the more the ocean comes into
      play to enhance the snow. Sort of a Meteorological ExtenZe, if you will. 😀

  104. I am not bringing out the UGH meter since the NAM run is still a moderate snowfall. If there is no snowfall at all from this the UGH meter might get broken. Clearly the trends are for a less impactful storm.

      1. However,

        No matter the placement of the low, it still appears we
        get an OCEAN component to the wind. Given the cold temperatures, the differential between ocean surface temperature
        and 850MB temperatures will be HUGE, thus it can’t help but
        snow near the coast.

        1. Agreed ….. I think at first, in a wide area that sees an intensity pickup in snow (from flurries or very light snow to a steady light snow) and then later Thursday night, Friday morning, perhaps a more intense band of snow on the north shore (perhaps clipping Boston), the south shore and the Cape.

          It always seems the departing western snow band, at the end of a coastal event, has some of the heavier snows for the coastline.

  106. I thought the 12Z Nam looked a bit closer vs. the 06Z. Here is a link of each shot

    06
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=060&image=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_060_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

    12
    http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=054&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_054_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

    It also put most of the action north of the city, no?

    1. Winds might be on the lower end of that range too. I dont think ocean effect snows make it much further than a few miles from the shore

  109. Off topic a bit ….. Pats divisional round game is set for Saturday night, January 11th, so, perhaps its time to start watching trends for around then.

    With Blount/Vareen/Ridley as a formidable ground attack, I’m hoping for dry conditions with a howling wind. I’ll take Brady anyday over any other QB in dealing with the breeze, as impacts the passing game.

  110. So far, 12Z GFS holding the course. Looks to be about the same as 06Z run.
    Total snow map available shortly. As of hour 75, about 1 foot for Boston. 😀

  111. I think the next story might be the temperatures Friday afternoon. I think there’s consensus agreement for below zero temps coming Friday night, but this looks like a very good setup to drive unmodified, pure arctic air southward into New England. Perhaps its 14F or 15F around dawn Friday morning, but I wouldnt be surprised if the air temperature is somewhere around 5F, maybe even colder by early afternoon Friday at Logan.

    1. re: Cold from NWS just minutes ago:

      THIS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR
      SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL COOLING ON FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 2 TO 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS AWAY. TEMPS WILL DROP BELOW ZERO INCLUDING THE METRO REGIONS. WARM SPOTS WILL BE THE CAPE AND THE ISLANDS THANKS TO THE WARMER OCEAN WATERS. THESE BITTER COLD TEMPS MAY WARRANT A
      WIND CHILL ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT AS WIND CHILLS DROP TO BELOW -20F NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE…WITH -15F NORTH OF I-95…INCLUDING THE CITY OF BOSTON.

    2. Agree Tom. Saturday morning will be extremely bitter after a very cold Friday. Regarding your post on the pats I’m hoping the pats don’t play the bengals because that could be a dangerous game. Loving the fact of an 8:15 game on a Saturday night.

      1. The Bengals scare me too, especially those Wide Receivers against our secondary. Talib can slow one of the receivers, its whoever Arrington is on. Thats why I think windy conditions would be helpful.

        1. I love an 8:15 Game, but not on a Saturday night.

          Good thing my wife loves watching the games, else
          I might have to miss it. 😀

        2. I only like that time Vicki due to the fact it’s Saturday as its not a work night. Work nights I’m in bed at 9-9:30 so a Sunday game would be louzy for me at that time. Take care Vicki I’m off to the mall.

  113. Interesting – Ch 4 just increased amounts and moved higher totals over NH border. 7 is still not giving a map but saying widespread 6 inches and 5 has not changed its map but has highest amounts.

        1. I’m sorry. Thought that was today’s. It was not.

          We’ll have to wait a little for that. Will post later
          this PM.

  117. Matt Noyes, 45 minutes ago:

    Matt Noyes ‏@MattNoyesNECN 46m
    Signals thus far still support general 6-12″ snow for Southern NewEng Wed night->Fri AM. Hope to get more specific soon.

  118. Harvey Leonard tweets a few minutes ago:

    Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 1m
    During Thu. Nt. & early Fri. snow should be heaviest near & along coast with some ocean enhancement

    Harvey Leonard ‏@HarveyWCVB 2m
    My early estimate is for somewhere between 5-10″ of mainly light, dry, fluffy snow inland

    OK inland, then what about the coast?

    2. I just question how far inland the ocean enhancement gets. Tom in Marshfield could get a foot and John in Pembroke gets 4.” Thats the kind of set up i think we’re looking at.

      1. I think that would be correct if the winds were more northerly. I believe they are projected to be NE which would give Pembroke and Hanover as much snow as Marshfield.

      1. John…sometimes Boston get’s a little less unless the wind is more ENE or East. I know that doesn’t help much but I do remember when living in Winthrop we could get steady light snow from enhancement while downtown (and especially out by Kenmore Sq where I worked at the time) there would a lot less.

        Suspect my location in Hingham will be in good shape.

          1. Hi Coastal…agreed especially if the winds are at least 15-20 mph or better. I work in Norwell (Longwater Drive) and it’s usually the same as my Hingham location (1 mile from the Harbor) unless the winds are lighter than above.

            1. Longwater is right around the corner from me. I moved their last month but before that I was in the south west corner of the town. I am further north but also closer to the coast now which should help. Its kind of a crap shoot as to where these binds come in from the ocean. Radar watching will be fun.

  120. A lot of times the models will swing/wobble back and forth on the track until the last day. I wouldn’t be surprised at all by track changes in upcoming runs. I think the models will show a little closer-in track right now.

  122. Oh boy, i think i just heard TK’s head explode. Danielle Niles just called this storm a Nor’easter 🙂

          1. Hmm, thanks OS. Very interesting set-up, almost 2 lows there side by side. I wonder if we can get that western low to break away and get sucked back into the coast some

    2. I acknowledge the euro is a superior model but i feel like ever since it correctly forecasted Sandy days before any other model, it has earned itself almost celebrity status. Forecasters have tended to lean heavily on its outcomes, almost to a fault. In the medium range, when its supposed to be at its best, i feel it has been wildly inaccurate. This is at least the third time that i can recall since the fall it has had a very potent east coast storm days before only to end up completely different. Just my thoughts on the euro heading into the heart of the winter.

  133. Anyone see the 12Z GFS for next Wed/Thurs. PV looks to come right across New England with 20-30 below C at 850mb. Colest so far if that stands. TK already alluded to his happening after a brief break later this weekend.

  134. @ericfisher: 12z ECMWF comes in w/same theme I’ve been discussing. Significant snow totals, moderate impact, very cold, not historic.

  135. Thanks Shreedhar.

    Hadi, can u confirm “significant” snow totals on latest euro? Curious what he thinks is significant and where that is.

  138. 12z BTV WRF shows the coastal enhancement quite nicely, but brings 30 degree contour all the way out to 95. Means it probably is overdoing the ocean enhancement. That is a great model to use as we get closer.

        1. Mind your business Coastal. 😀 😀
          he he

          I’ve seen them all. I keep many of them around for various reasons.

      2. Select the run time total precip, which has .75-1″ for eastern Mass. But then again it has the 30 degree contour out to 95. Even with that issue in mind, eastern Mass should get at least some ocean enhancement and win the jackpot.

  139. Euro delivers between .5 and .6 to Boston and a general .4 to .6 region wide. On my phone. All I got to add at the moment til probably sometime tomorrow

  140. I concur with TK and JMA on this one. This will not be historic nor a classic noreaster. However, an artic airmass and a fetch off the water combined with a 24 event should produce widespread 5-10 with isolated 12 plus in mesoscale banding. I know im not adding anything new but this set up seems most plausible. Still cant complain. Its still a respectable event.

  142. Eastern mass could have some surprises IMHO. Ie higher totals. Ocean enhancement can add up quickly and is not easily modeled or forecasted.

    2. I’ve been saying that all along. Set up is perfect for it.
      The temperature differential and wind speeds and profile just right.

      Good Ole Frictional convergence with Atlantic moisture. 😀 😀

      AND that kind of snow, REALLY has fluff factor. I can see the ocean stuff
      going to 20 or 25:1. 😀 😀

      1. frictional convergence

        The coming together (usually horizontally) of air due to drag against the surface being different at different locations.

        A classic example is the wind blowing toward shore from over the ocean. The ocean is relatively smooth with little frictional drag, while the land, with trees and buildings, is rougher and has more drag. When the wind from the ocean reaches land, it will slow down due to the increased drag. Thus, air will be flowing toward the shore from the ocean faster than it will leave the shore over land, causing horizontal convergence. Mass continuity requires updrafts in these regions, thereby leading to enhanced cloudiness and possibly precipitation.

        Frictional convergence is speed convergence induced by the effects of friction over land. The roughness of the land causes the air to slow down as it crosses the land-water (or land-ice) interface. The upstream air catches up and converges on the air that is moving over the land.

    3. Ch 5 just updated their map again confirming what you are saying Hadi. They marked along the coast as “locally higher” with 6-12 being west of that area

  143. DT is at it again, but is he onto something this time???????

    Since they made the upgrade is been pretty clear that the consistency of the European model with regard to specific weather features such as East Coast Lows or the position of warm fronts are cold fronts… ii is not nearly as good as it used to be. The model still does very well with large scale or synoptic scale features ( the over all pattern) and in that regard it still beating the heck out of the operational GFS. But clearly something is wrong with the model when it comes to these specific individual weather events.

      1. When you say get it?
        Do you
        a. Mean you are supposed to see it? OR
        b. Mean you are supposed to understand it?

        Not sure which you mean.

        With that link, you “should” see a graphic. 😀

    1. Oh. Hmmm I see it fine.

      No big deal. They say in Boston area near the coast, it is Impact level 3
      out of 5.

  146. Good afternoon on this final day of 2013! And thank you all for following the blog during the last year. Looking to make it bigger and better in 2014 but I’d be fooling myself if I thought I’d make every change I want during that time. At least we’ll be heading in a certain direction. But don’t worry, nothing about the core of the blog will change. 🙂 Stay tuned…

    Weather: I like the idea of 4-8 widespread from late Wed night through Friday morning, mostly in line with the thinking all along from here (aside of minor tweaks). There will be locally heavier, favoring ocean-enhanced areas. But what is not being mentioned is that there will also be locally lighter areas. Not sure where these set up yet, but one such may be in interior east central MA south of a dynamically enhanced snow area and west of an ocean enhanced snow area, and even east of an orographic lift zone. One or more of these areas may exist.

    I’m hosting a NYE party tonight but I’ll be checking in frequently and updating probably one more time before midnight. 🙂

  147. Be careful not to rely TOO much on ocean-effect for widespread moderate to heavy totals. It almost never happens that way. It’s usually one to a few bands of heavier snow that set up over a couple areas, parallel to the wind, with areas outside of these bands getting much less. With a storm quite far away we may not be able to get as much from the dynamics associated with the storm itself, though I am still expecting a zone of mid level lift in northern MA and southern NH (moderate bust potential here).

    Example of great ocean-effect banding: December 1977, if memory serves me right, a few days before Christmas we got into a setup probably something like we’re about to see (I was 10 years old so my memory of synoptic specifics may be a little off). An ocean-effect snow band set up in such a way that we here in Woburn got 10 inches of fluff, while just 2 miles to my south, Winchester recorded 2-4 inches of snow.

  148. Thank you TK. Your party sounds nice….OS yours as well. We are having an early dinner in Sudbury and then will attempt to stay awake till midnight. A very happy, healthy, prosperous 2014 to everyone. It is a great pleasure to be a part of such a special group of individuals. 😀

    1. My party is a small one, just me and the immediate family and the 2 friends I spend the most time with. My Mom will even be there. 🙂

      Highlights of the night include: Bruins on TV, Chinese food, and making sugar cookies with various cutters. 😉

      2. Sounds perfect to me. I can feel your moms smile that she will be there also. Do I know one of those friends….well sort of know :). Kids are getting Chinese. Yummmmm. Enjoy

  149. Anyone happen to see the 18Z NAM? I know i know, its the 18Z, but it looks to be the closest north and west yet

    1. Look at the qpf!!!!!

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_084_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

      And a MUCH closer pass to us:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_054_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18&param=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=054&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&scrollx=0&scrolly=48

  152. Well, im off for the rest of the night probably. That run gives me a little bit of hope. Trending closer and stronger? Happy New Year everyone!

    1. What are they smoking????

      * HAZARD TYPES…SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

      * ACCUMULATIONS…4 TO 8 INCHES.

      * WINDS…NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

      * TEMPERATURES…SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

      * VISIBILITIES…ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

      * TIMING…THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

      1/4 mile or less? From What? They’re NUTS!!!!

  159. 35:1 snow ratios quite impressive.
    Level 2 snowfall event for SNE 5-10 inches. Best shot at level 3 would be at and near the coast in eastern parts of SNE.
    Will see how this plays out.

  161. I am glad the cold is being highlighted with the fresh snow pack on the ground and if there is clear skies those temperatures are really going to drop Friday night. I think there will be a lot of areas below zero for lows.

  163. I am wondering with those cold overnight lows temperatures if they will be the coldest we have seen since January 2004. I remember Boston during that brutal cold stretch got down to -7 one of those mornings.

        1. They never closed framingham. Most everyone is know kept their kids home. I called school and superintendent and let them know what I thought. As you know, I am usually a very quiet person….keep my thoughts to myself. 😉

  164. Love the cold, sunny days. Then time to enjoy some fluffy snow. Don’t rule out the immediate coastline getting 18 inches or more. Interior will not be nearly as lucky. And after that, looking forward to colder, sunny days. Snow beats rain, and January cold beats 95 degree heat. I know this is subjective, and some people may declare me insane for preferring 5 to 95, but I do.

  166. Happy New Year Everyone! Tomorrow being January 1st bold weather prediction day. I can’t wait to here all of your predictions for the weather in 2014.

  167. I think we are seeing the westward trend. Won’t come back to benchmark but I bet by tomorrow morning we have even more qpf.

    Happy new year!! Big feast here tonight with meat fondu, raclette, sleepover with great friends and their kids.

  168. If both the 18z NAM & GFS are suddenly wetter and closer with the low, it’s probably the result of something amiss in the raw data used for initialization.

  169. Just took some time to read the NWS criteria for advisories/watches/warnings and good luck to them for what they are going to select for our viewing area.

    I’d think inland areas cant meet the criteria for winter storm watches because of the amount of snow needed to fall in a specified amount of time.

    At the same time, at the coastline, its plausible that there could be 3 straight hrs with N or NE winds gusting to 35 or more that restrict the visibility under 1/4 mile. It doesnt have to be snowing that hard ….. It could be light snow that would have the visibility down to 1-2 miles, but the gusty coastal winds would blow the powdery snow like crazy to further reduce visibilities.

    I suppose inland areas could be under winter weather advisories and then, a small corner of SE Mass, Cape Cod and Cape Ann could need a blizzard watch with no winter storm watches needed at all.

    1. The one big problem with a blizzard watch/warning is that for some reason the majority of the public has it stuck in their head that it is related to snow AMOUNTS, when in fact you can have a blizzard without snow falling at all.

      1. Good point TK ……. So perhaps it wouldnt be wise for them to use those (blizzard) particular watches/warnings in this instance.

        1. It would be wise to use them if people actually understood what they meant. The general public seems to suffer from this media-induced foggy inability to use reason and avoid falling for sensationalism.

          1. I must admit that, in my mind, a blizzard implied a big fall of snow. Yet, as you point out, actual falling snow is not mentioned in the criteria.

            Northern Canada and the entire arctic region probably have multiple blizzards daily under clear skies.

    1. In the 18z model suite that piece of energy that comes from the northern stream looks like its digging a deeper trough. Maybe its stronger?

  171. From noaa glossary

    Blizzard
    (abbrev. BLZD)- A blizzard means that the following conditions are expected to prevail for a period of 3 hours or longer:
    Sustained wind or frequent gusts to 35 miles an hour or greater; and
    Considerable falling and/or blowing snow (i.e., reducing visibility frequently to less than ¼ mile)
    Blizzard Warning
    Issued for winter storms with sustained or frequent winds of 35 mph or higher with considerable falling and/or blowing snow that frequently reduces visibility to 1/4 of a mile or less. These conditions are expected to prevail for a minimum of 3 hours.

  177. Here’s the issue with models.

    Models are programed with equations that show up in text books.

    They use these to try to explain the atmosphere.

    The atmosphere does not behave by the rules of a text book.

    The end.

    🙂

          1. I listened to all 4 Fagen Albums, Walter Becker’s solo stuff, and the entire Steely Dan catalog between December 26 and today. 🙂

  179. 00z NAM has a strung out low splitting into two centers. The one over the ocean literally drowns in sea water while the one of the land takes over and crushes SNE.

  180. John,

    I’m not trusting anything at this point. I actually think this is going to be a BIG bust for our entire region.

    1. We’ll it depends on what you mean by bust. According to tk and some others this was never going to be a blockbuster storm. But it seems like 6-12 is a solid number that’s out there. So my opinion I don’t think it’s a bust and do see this storm coming. If anything down my way Hanover, pembroke and marshfield has a shot at 12 or over with the right condition.

        1. A 6-12 inch storm is a big storm. I just think that there is alot of uncertainty with accumulations and alot of places are going to fall short. I don’t think any of the models have a good handle on this system. I trust in what TK and JMA have been saying I just don’t like how this is all setting up.

  181. I think By Friday morning we will have a pretty good handle on the storm. I am waiting till then to give my snowfall totals!!

  184. Upon review of new guidance and consultation with a couple colleagues, no need to change any #’s at this time.

    NAM is very likely overdoing it, as usual.

    It has indeed been poor, and only got precipitation reasonably close for parts of the region the last few storms. The overall performance of the model has been disappointing.

  185. And gfs is wetter as well. All I know is that it was very good for the last two storms in the immediate Boston area.

    1. The GFS and NAM are consistent on that big precip hole, initially, in the mid-Atlantic region, btwn the precip coming out of the Great Lakes (which looks like the letter s) and the precip along the Gulf and SE coastline.

  186. Thank you, again! TK. Excellent video 🙂 So much I didn’t know about Becker and Fagen. Amazing musicians! Wow 🙂

  188. i know most of the time the gfs, and nam have been what we called crap, but have you all notice how crappy the euro been latly.

  190. I agree Matt and I don’t think the nam is useless in this type of event. It’s usually very good with these types if storms.

  192. happy new year everyone. Hope 2014 is great for all and hoping for a snowy beginning and end ;)….. and wow 6 more months till im 21 im sorry but thats scarry. lol….
    Parents have let me since 18 drink wine and shampaine on special events including new years eve. and this was the first time my brother chris got a sip … should have seen his face.

  201. Pop music has officially crapped the bed. New years eve music coverage is getting harder and harder to watch

  202. I just tried to check wunderground and thats all screwed up. It has a 12z run from july 22?? So keep me posted on amounts.

  207. Just got back from the Boston Pops, it was fun, Happy new year!! on to the models, the euro is down to .40-.50 of precip, most other models have been trending less qpf also, I continue to think we r looking at a 3-5,4-6 inche snow event with isolated 6-10 inches especially places like cohasset and hingham, this snow looks like it will be a powdery fluffy snow, also it appears its a long duration event, so should be an easy storm to keep up with, goodnight 🙂

    1. 3-5 inches for where ? Did you see the nam? Nws believes euro way underdone. You love the nam for other storms.

  212. All,Happy New Years Day!!

    Winter Storm Watch in place now. Winter Storm Warning shouldn’t be far away.

    Channel 4: Wide swath of 6-10″ in central MA, but 10-14″ in eastern MA and Cape, mostly inside 128 and along coast.

    Channel 5: 6-10″ in central and southern MA as far east as 128 and 10-14″ in Boston and along coast; 4-8″on Cape

    Channel 7: 8-10″ central and eastern MA, and 10-12″ in Boston and Cape/coast.

    All stations: Calling it a Nor’easter; long duration event with breaks in the snowfall; heaviest period very late Thurs and early Fri with blizzard like conditions at times; lots of wind Thurs night with gusts to 45-50 MPH; coastal surges.

  214. Good Morning everyone and Happy New Year! I am looking forward to another great year of weather and blogging with all of you
    Snow Index for this storm. Level 3 which is snowfall 10-20 inch range for eastern new england. Level 2 snowfall which is snowfall in the 5-10 inch range for the rest of SNE but would not be surprised if an upgrade is needing for other areas.
    The cold is the other story after the storm. I think many areas will have below zero readings Friday night.

  215. NWS holding off on blizzard watch for the time being but criteria may very well be met so let’s see what they do with the WSW.

    Matt Noyes says he can’t ignore wetter nam, gfs and sref even though they are “off run”

  216. January 1st now time to make the bold weather predictions for 2014. I would love to hear what all of your predictions are and then look back and see how many actually happened.
    Here are mine
    2-3 snowfalls with widespread double digit snowfalls before this winter is over.
    8 to 12 months with above normal temps
    Precipitation totals for the year below normal
    Spring slightly above normal temps
    Summer will be warmer than normal with above normal 90 degree days. I am thinking 20 degree days
    2-3 widespread severe thunderstorm days during the summer
    No hurricanes or tropical storm making landfall in SNE but a more active hurricane season with more named storms
    Fall will have near normal temperatures
    First widespread accumulating snow in November
    White Christmas

  217. Happy New Year everyone!

    JJ – I will be giving you my thoughts on the weather for 2014 either later today or tomorrow.

  219. Tom I can’t wait to read your bold weather predictions as I think a good number of them happened. One being the 20 plus inches of snow Boston would get for a storm.

  220. Happy 2014 to all. Looks as if the numbers are up a and but all stations are on the same page. I’m seeing a bit more intrusive than was originally thought, especially for Friday am???

    2. Wishing you and yours a very Happy New Year, Vicki! Thank you for all the work and time you put into the blog!

      1. Thanks shotime. I enjoy the very little part I do. I don’t have the weather knowledge so am happy I can help in other ways 🙂

  221. And here comes 2014’s first forecast prediction inaccuracies 🙂 …….

    1st substantial, prolonged negative NAO phase arrives in March with spring nowhere in sight during March.

    Logan hits 98F near the summer solstice and 101F during the 3rd week of July.

    Mauna loa co2 readings hit 403 ppm in late March/early April.

    Accuweather replaces 45 day weather forecast with 90 day forecast.

    Texas gets hit with hurricane.

    1st measurable snow next cold season at Logan ….. Dec 14, 2014.

  222. Wishing everyone a very happy, healthy and safe 2014!
    Look forward to another fun year of reading, posting and learning from the best –
    with my Woods Hill Weather friends!
    Happy New Year!

  223. 16 miles out in Boston Harbor … Water temp : 42.4F.

    Inner Harbor temp : 36.3F.

    I think Marshfield’s polar plunge is at Rexhame at 10:30am. We may go watch.

    2. When niece did it two years ago at Humarock temp was 46. Son did it same place in this type of weather years before that. Both said the breath is literally sucked out of you and its a bit scary

  227. Thinking about it just now…

    We’ve all known each other for a while now. Is it a few years already? Maybe more? We need an annual yearbook group photo!

  228. I just looked over a few comments from last night and saw TK mentioning a GFS “upgrade” coming. I couldn’t help but think of some goofy imagery of what that looks like…… Just some light body work and a paint job or a full blown-out restoration with new parts.

    Dry humor, I know, but some of you might have been thinking the same thing.

  231. Good morning and Happy New year all!!!

    The NAM is really bulking up. I never evenlooked at the 0Z run. I saw the 18Z run was way up, then I looked at the 06Z run. Purples showing on snow map! YIKE like 30 inches!! 06 GFS still down around 12-14 inches or so.

    Euro is off it’s rocker!!

    All models seems to have SLOWED the system down some, this seems to be
    allowing the system to get it’s act together and stay closer to the coast and
    move farther Northward. I expected it to be cloudy this morning. I don’t
    think we seen clouds until late in the day.

    Going to check out a few more models.

    What’s up with the Wundermap???

  233. My neighbor has s friend flying into RI tomortow at 1pm…then driving to Woburn. How will that pan out?

  234. 0Z CMC has qpf up to .98 inches

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemglb&run=00&type=SN&hi=000&hf=084&lang=en&map=na

    UKMET about .6 inch

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=ukmet&run=00&type=SN&hi=000&hf=084&lang=en&map=na

    0Z FIM still has .5 to 1 inch:

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=fim9_jet:&runtime=2014010100&plot_type=totp_sfc&fcst=084&time_inc=360&num_times=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=236&adtfn=0

    So is the NAM an outlier OR does it have a handle on this?

  238. As relates to the general public, I think snowfall amounts in this particular event take on less importance.

    I think Friday travel, particularly all morning into early afternoon has the potential to be the worst of the entire winter.

    Falling temps through the low teens into the single digits (most road treatments will be useless), enough wind in the eastern half of Massachusetts to consistently blow around a very powdery snow ….. Its going to be extremely difficult to get any road down to pavement.

    If a town gets 3 inches or 14 inches, under the above listed conditions, all roads are going to be tough. I’d think this event for Friday, in particular, requires a VERY HIGH impact probability.

  240. Here is the latest 4km WRF run from 06Z (does it suffer same bias as 06NAM?)

    In any case it shows 1.25 for Logan, 1.5 for JP and SW and 1.75+ over parts of
    South Shore:

    http://i.imgur.com/IlqFBtn.jpg?1

    I zoomed on this so you can’t see the date/time stamps, but this was
    through 1300 on 1/3. Which I believe is 8AM with several hours of snow
    left.

    Would like to see later runs of this.

    And many thanks to SCOTT for turning me onto this model.

  241. You got three commutes that could potentially be impacted. The two tomorrow and Friday morning. I agree I think the Friday morning commute is going to be the worst out of the three.

    1. Friday AM is the one to watch out for.

      I updated our employee list yesterday. We may very well get the day
      off on Friday. 😀

      1. If that 4km wrf run is right, it will be snowing 1-2 inches
        per hour during Friday AM’s commute, especially in the Boston
        area South and East.

  242. Then once the storm is open the cold takes hold and those lows Saturday morning are going to be down in the negative territory. Add any wind and it will feel much colder. I know it will be dripping the faucets in my condo Friday night and hoping my car battery is strong enough to start Saturday morning.

    1. Oh one more thing. With the ocean enhancement snow, the ratios are usually
      HUGE. So the heavy snow that comes down Friday AM will have the MOST
      fluff factor of it all. It could really pile up.

      1. From NWS:

        SST 850MB SPREAD IS NEARING 20C DIFFERENCE COMBINED WITH PERSISENT NORTHEAST FLOW AND OCEAN INDUCED CAPE OF OVER 400 J/KG WILL RESULT IN A QUICK 4+ INCHES IN A 24 HR TIME FRAME. THEREFORE BELIEVE THAT THIS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT
        WILL RESULT IN HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 14 INCHES ALONG THE MASS COASTLINE. EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO THE HIGH SNOW RATIOS.

        Only 4+ inches of ocean enhancement???

        I “think” they are underplaying that. I think it will be more.

    2. OS, i could be wrong, but the heart of the northern energy is still a ways behind the cloud stream. Its almost invisible there on satellite. It will stay behind and try to dig out that trough. We’ll have to see how deep it gets.

  246. One interesting thing to watch will be the impact of this storm on businesses, schools, etc. A lot of people will hear the watches, warnings, etc and then when the snow appears to be lighter, etc than predicted (at least to them as they heard it…) on Thursday will make some of their decisions on Friday morning based on that. The potential for horrible Friday morning situation is there.

  248. 12Z GFS rolling. Wants to drop 4 inches by 1PM tomorrow. That’s a bit robust already,
    isn’t it? Looks like energy is phasing. Looks closer to coast. Watching.

  249. Some of the latest info has increased qpf some, not a lot but some, it will be interesting to see the trends this afternoon

  251. Lots of sun with passing clouds here but cold, we are heading South Carolina for 5 weeks early next week and won’t be back till 3rd week of Feb when work starts gearing back up, but I got about 50-60 people that will be giving me updates on current weather, as well as woodshill 🙂

  252. I don’t see how boston doesn’t get 10-12 inches, if not more. Lots of general agreement in the models.

    1. Im inclined to go with matt noyes map. While i dont think the foot mark gets that far into western sections (aside from a few higher terrain eastern slopes), i think he has the heaviest snows in the right place, only a few miles from the shorelines. Ive never thought the ocean enhancement gets any further west.

  254. I swear it never fails, that when it snows, we get a rainstorm 48hrs after with temps in the 40’s early next week for 2 days, typical!!!!

    1. Charlie,
      From NWS Upton NY:

      NEXT SYSTEM COMES IN SUN. THE TRACK IS TRENDING EWD…HOWEVER IT WOULD STILL BE A MAINLY WARM SECTOR TRACK FOR THE CWA WITH THE
      LATEST DATA. BASED ON THE TREND HOWEVER…FCST INDICATES SNOW OR RAIN LATE SUN THRU MON. MAIN WINDOW IS SUN NGT-MON.

  255. Push that foot area further west to include me in Watertown, CT. Still a decent storm for me 6-10 inches. Maybe a few heavy bands setup shop over me and with the high snow ratios the models will underestimate the amount of snow.

    1. I think those will come down slightly through the day and into tomorrow, I think the models r somewhat over doing it, the dry air could spell havoc, we shall see

    2. They are pretty much where they have been all along within an inch or two – just refined. Most all of the stations have been fairly consistent and also close to each other.

  258. Joe B tweet

    @BigJoeBastardi: I am not backing down from Blizzard idea for several hours late Thu night into Fri am NJ to New England. Storm may double my amts some spots

    1. Joe bastardi, he’s a snow lover, and ignores certain models, and not bc there not right, but because he wants snow, if u don’t like the weather, it’s the only weather we’ve got: Bastardi lol

  260. Anyone who has not made their bold weather predictions yet I would love to hear read what your thoughts will be in the year of weather 2014. I made my predictions earlier along with Tom.

  261. Breaking news:

    12Z GEM_REG is in. Has system closer to coast!!!

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemreg&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemreg&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=045&fixhh=1&hh=048

    qpf through 12Z Friday (NOT COMPLETE)

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemreg&run=12&type=SN&lang=en&map=na

    That’s 40mm in Eastern sections or about 1.6 inches.
    With even a 15:1 ratio that is 24 inches at 20:1 it’s 32 inches!!!

    Of course it drops off quickly Westward. Out to about Worcester it’s about 1 inch
    or about 15-20 inches with the ratios.

    This just “may” end up being a bigger snow storm than previously predicted.

    NOW the GEM-GLB may come in differently as well. We shall see.

    No matter what, I find this to be most interesting!

  263. JJ – I think you just answered my question. I have recorded JimmyJames and Tom’s bold weather predictions. Did I miss anyones??

    Please, as always, make sure I acknowledge them. I don’t think there is a deadline for this is there JJ?? But maybe within a week.

    My first prediction is snow for the first few days of the year………..let’s see if I’m correct 😉

  264. I got a question, is there any inside places so that the kids can ride there bikes, and new outside toys they got from Santa, I tried but the kids get frozen in 2 min’s, any help is appreciated, thank u

    2. NWS anticipating issuing a BLIZZARD watch later today:

      SO THESE WINDS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE RESULTING IN
      GUSTS 35-45 MPH. WITH THESE KIND OF GUSTS AND SNOW
      ACCUMULATIONS…NEAR BLIZZARD-LIKE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.
      SINCE THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REALLY GUST UNTIL THURSDAY
      NIGHT…HELD OFF ON THE POTENTIAL FOR A BLIZZARD WATCH AND WILL
      LET DAY SHIFT LOOK AT THE LATEST 12Z MODEL DATA. AREA OF CONCERN
      IS FROM CAPE ANN DOWN TO CAPE COD INCLUDING THE CITY OF BOSTON AND S FAR WEST AS PROVIDENCE. REGARDLESS OF HEADLINES…EXPECTING
      SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW REDUCING VSBYS MAKING TRAVEL NEAR IMPOSSIBLE.

      Commute issues Friday AM? Perhaps a wee bit. 😀

  268. From the French Toast Alert System:

    Going to Orange/High not just because Jim Cantore plans to be here but because the NWS is on the verge of warning us of a blizzard:

    1. That should say *already. Darn phone! I am at Pump n Jump letting my boys release some energy. Much needed!!!

      1. Plymouth doesn’t go back til Monday anyway. Two full weeks of Christmas vacation. Sure wish I was a kid again…..or Tom. 🙂

  271. Happy 2014!

    Full update mid afternoon.

    Current thought: 7-14 inches broadbrushing the region.

  272. I wonder what there going to do here in CT with schools in regards to winter storm Bethany.
    Bethany our second named storm of the season in CT named this morning by our CBS affiliate here WFSB.

    1. The combination of the Snow and Cold could be a problem.
      We’ll all survive, but because of the cold, we’ll really feel this one. 😀

  275. Back in the day, BLIZZARD criteria included something about temperature.
    In that sense, this could be a TRUE BLIZZARD. 😀

    1. Used to be something like this:

      A severe blizzard has winds over 72 km/h (45 mph), near zero visibility, and temperatures of −12 °C (10 °F) or lower.

  276. For areas near the coast I think there would be some sort of blizzard alert. The Friday morning commute is going to be a high impact commute in my opinion. This won’t be no blizzard of 2013 that’s for sure but an appreciable amount of snow none the less.

  277. Maybe it’s just me but it doesn’t seem like winds are going to be strong enough for a blizzard right? Looking at some maps it seems as GUSTS will only be about 30-40mph except on the cape…

    1. NWS saying Coastal guts 35-45 mph.
      Blizzard criteria is 35 mph.

      I think within 10-20 miles of coast, a Blizzard warning will be posted.

      We shall see.

    2. Oh my bad, I just looked at the definition and it includes gusts 35mph or higher for at least 3 hours so that is certainly possible. I thought it was referring to sustained winds…

  278. I have been in the 8-12″ camp for Newton since the beginning. Now I am wondering if I am a little on the low side.

    1. Yes, you could be right. I know there was a temperature requirement.

      I found that severe blizzard definition.

  281. Temps under 10, gusts up to 40, and possibly over a foot of fluffy snow….this is gonna be a fun one!

    1. That fluff stuff will REALLY Blow around. Won’t be able to see 10 feet in
      front of you. Very dangerous situation.

  283. I’ll throw my predictions out there. I’m thinking wide spread 6-12 from 495 / Hopkinton north and west. I would also put the cape in that range west to the canal. Inside 495 down to the canal I’m thinking 8 to 14 with a pockets of 16 to 18 in the jackpot area. I’m thinking the jack pot area will be South Weymouth to Brockton to North Kingston. Basically inside route 24 and north of route 44. I’m concerned about lesser ratios right at the beaches and on the cape and would place those areas at 6-12.

    1. I think you could be spot on with this. Our area could well be in the bulls eye. Just went to Home Depot in Rockland and purchased more ice melt and another shovel.

        1. Nice…The one thing I have to remember is to keep checking FM antennas on the rotors. I’ve found that when its snows and it gets as cold as predicted then firing up the rotors every 30 minutes or so and moving the antennas is big help to not having it freeze up. Not much I can do about the big loops I use for MW (AM) and HF (Shortwave) long distance listening. If they come down they come down…pretty easy in decent weather to get them back up.

          1. Sounds like there is nothing you can do in these types of situation. Isn’t there a radio personality that lives in hingham and broadcasts his own shows?

              1. I think there is…can’t remember who it is tho 🙂

                A lot of radio people in the business are also ham operators (which I’m not…yet LOL) and I know a few of those.

  284. 12Z 4KM WRF BACKED WAAAAAAAAAAAY OFF.

    Only .5 to .75 inch for Boston up to 1.25 on South Shore.
    Only .5 inland.

    Hmmm Doesn’t seem right. It must have indigestion or something.

  285. Very interested to see the 12Z euro. I’d feel much better if it got back on board the snow train. For its recent difficulties in the medium range it has nailed qp for our last few events. If it still shows qp’s in the 0.50 range again, i dont think we can ignore it. Dont want to be a downer. Thoughts?

    2. I know i said yesterday it shouldnt be the end all be all of weather models, but its the qp amounts im concerned with. I’d like to see a jump up on this run

  286. Yesterday I forecasted widespread 6-12 with locally higher amounts along the coast. In the end, i think these totals will be conservative as storms wants to come in closee to the coast and a tad stronger.

  290. well the euro is being stupid
    nam went bonkers as it showed 30 inches of snow for some areas. High unlikly.
    gfs has actually been consistant.
    latest nam run has gotten back to where i think it very likly could happen
    nam and gfs seem to be agreeing.
    posting my blog in a bit as i look at more info. will have a few maps.

  291. Does anyone know of a inside bike park or sports place where u can ride new bikes, I’ve tried to find a place, all there r r skateparks, any ideas?

  292. At 48 hours, the low is slightly stronger on the 12z euro than the 12z gfs and has about the same placement if I am not mistaken

  294. I’ll throw my guess as well, just a guess.west and north of boston 6-10, boston 6-12 and areas south could be the jackpot of 9-15 inches along the south shore towards the cape. Power outages may be limited due to the light fluffy snow in nature. The south shore is the wild card with the ocean enhancement places like marshfield right down south towards Plymouth and the cape may be big. I believe though say Weymouth right through the south shore do very well. Just guessing so will see how it goes. Still plenty of model runs to go.

  295. Charlie, the euro might not be a HUGE shift u gotta admit it is a shift. It does not look exactly the same.

  298. 12 z Op Models
    BOS NAM .87, GFS, .95, ECMWF .80 Avg .85
    Lawrence NAM .75m GFS .85, ECMWF .68 Avg .75
    Worecster NAM .61 GFS .80, ECMWF .56 Avg .65
    Springfield NAM.47, GFS .62 ECMWF .52 Avg .55

  299. If u r within 10 miles of coast from Boston southward your looking at 12-15 inches, Boston south and southwest 8-10 inches, Boston west and north 6-8 inches, north and west of 495 6 inches, it’s looks super powdery, so it will be blown around easily, the good thing is it will melt super fast bc its so dry, and it will be gone by Monday evening with rain and temps staying above freezing for a duration of 36 hrs from Sunday am to Monday evening, good day all 🙂

  301. Some thoughts, keep seeing lots about ocean effect and snow ratios. Ocean effect snow is impossible to predict on a broad basis as far accumulations. Lots of talk about ratios of 20:1 plus.

    Boston’s climo is 11:1 in January. Do you know what the ratiowas for the 17th storm with temps in the teens in Boston? 12:1. At Worcester with temps in the 10’s it was 15:1. What I am getting at is it is near impossible to get long durations of 18-20:1.

    The dry air that people are counting on here for big accumulations particularly after dark on Thursday may conspire to defeat that idea. Late Thursday night dew points are crashing from a saturation level in the teens to the single digits and even below zero. That is a huge surge of mid-level and obviously low level drying that could shut this off real fast in some areas and I have to account for that factor in accumulations.

    1. Even I go 50% over climo in Boston I am at 16:1. I think I am going to use a general 15:1 ratio for the duration of the storm and with the exception of the extreme east coast locations cut 4-6 hours off of the accumulating snows. Also think the gradient is never as tight as advertised here.

      Thoughts right now- East facing coastal locations including Boston 11-14″ high end amount achieved in locations if a ocean effect band sets ups in a locale. 128 belt to Worcester 8-11″ West of Worcester 6-9″ So generally a 6-12″ storm with higher amounts at east facing coastal locations.

      Thursday is actually fairly benign with light snow and lulls of no precip and a general 1-2″ accumulates, most snowfall Thursday evening into early Friday. I am shutting off the precip 4am-8am west to east instead of 8am-noon as modeled.

  303. Might have to expand the level 3 area to include more of SNE. Right now I got for eastern sections from 128 toward the coast where I think there will be the best shot at 10 plus inches. I don’t see these areas reaching level 4 20 plus inches.
    The rest of SNE is at level 2 snowfall with snowfall in the 5-10 inch range.

  305. I do agree 20:1 is tough need the right temps in snow growth region not surface. Ocean enhancement is tough to forecast and can cause huge changes in snow totals. Euro was a major shift from the last two runs.

  306. Matt Noyes posting that rpm and nmm are showing significant increase. He’s not ready to change forecast until 24 hours out but seems very close to upping numbers.

  309. The 00z nam will tell us a lot, if it goes up or down on qpf will say alot imo, then its onto now casting.

    3. See by posting crazy stuff like this is irresponsible, bc if just 1 person starts a rumor of almost 2ft, this will spread like wildfire, sorry not my style

  311. Hi all!

    Would love to have been by the blog more today, but the 1st day of my new year was a busy one and continues to be. However, this hour is dedicated to an update, which I will post as soon as it’s done.

    This system upcoming reminds me a little bit of an elongated 2 part system not so long ago where Barry Burbank (who will openly admit this) and I both got shafted by mis-forecasting the strength of the second piece of energy. There is too much model agreement in bringing this 2nd piece closer this time for me to ignore it, and although it is not the exact same set-up, there are enough similarities that I won’t get fooled by it. The difference between this situation and that one, is this time more of the snow will come because of a gradient created by the low pressure area and the Arctic high to the north, hence the higher totals on the eastern coastal areas. Last time, it was heavy snow from a disturbance that was stronger in upper levels than the surface, which tracked across the area producing double the amount of snow I had forecast. It was a decent learning experience for me. And believe me, no matter how many years you do this, you will always have something to learn. As soon as you think you know it all, it’s time to leave it behind, because you’re only fooling yourself. 😉

    Ok, on to the update! I’ll post when it’s done!

  313. JJ – Here are my weather predictions for 2014.

    The rest of the winter we will see more snow and more cold temps. I see at least another big snowstorm or 2 before the spring. There will be some mild days here and there but with rain – not much sun when it’s mild- I don’t see a January thaw.

    The spring will be wet and on the cool side; but by the end of the spring it will start to get warmer.

    The summer will have many hot days – I agree w/you on many 90+ days; I just can’t guess on how many. There will be a lot of Severe Thunderstorms watches/warnings and even 1 or 2 Tornado watches/warnings. I am not sure if the draught will be relieved – perhaps with all the winter’s snows and a wet spring, I can’t say.

    The fall will start out warm and won’t cool off sufficiently ’til mid-Oct. I do see a tropical storm in the late summer/early fall but no hurricanes for New England. I will not take a guess on the hurricane season in general for the whole country.

    Next winter I see a lot of snow but not as cold as this winter has been so far.

  314. Thank you to everyone. I just read through the blog. Lots of info. JMA I was interested in your shut down time. I think that is very important info.

  317. http://geology.com/topographic-physical-map/massachusetts.shtml

    Hopefully, this will paste the topographic map of Massachusetts I was looking at.

    I’m posting this because in this particular case, I think its important to see where there’s some slight elevation (even 150-300 ft) fairly close to the coastline to add a little bit of lift.

    Have a look just southwest of Boston. There’s a 150-300 ft contour thats exactly bisected by a county line. The land is almost oriented perfectly to receive a NE wind and get a slight extra bit of lift. Thats where I’d put my biggest snowfall bullseye.

        1. I remember back in the Blizzard of 78 living on the Roslindale/West Roxbury line (up off of Washington Street near the old Brannelly’s Dinner Cafe and the Pleasant Cafe) the amounts were much higher than downtown. Elevation in that area is around 300 ft ASL iirc.

  321. Blog is updated. In a little while I’ll post my “for fun” 2014 predictions there. 🙂

  322. After looking at 18Z NAM, not sure NWS hoists a Blizzard watch soon.
    I’m guessing it will be sometime after they digest all of the 0Z guidance.
    Just my guess.

    NAM wind data is borderline. And although the snow slowly piles up, it piles slowly.
    Composite radar images were not impressive, however, this was the 18Z NAM.

    All the more reason, I think the NWS waits until after the 0Z runs.

    Even then, it “may” not be issued. I thought for sure earlier. Now I think it is
    50-50.

    Now watch, not sooner I hit POST and WHAM Blizzard warnings will be hoisted. 😀 😀

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