Snow Doubt About It

783 Comments

3:58PM

First off, let me wish all of you a happy and healthy 2014! Thank you for being part of this blog!

Several days ago, I indicated concern about the period of January 2-4 for a potential winter storm event of some sort, and as would be expected, it was far too early to say much more than that. As much as we’d love to think these things come into focus quickly, they simply do not, given the level of technology available to us. Even at this stage with details much more clear about the event, there are still unknowns that leave us with a forecasting challenge. The details may be more minute, like for example which towns will get over a foot of snow because ocean enhancement and which will not, but nevertheless they remain less than 100% clear. There is always going to be uncertainty built into any forecast. It’s the core of the definition of inexact science given to the term “meteorology”. But with that challenge in place, it’s still not going to deter us from trying to understand it. Now it’s time to “apply the try”.

The storm: It comes in 2 parts, the first a strip of energy that comes in from the west and a developing surface low moving along an Arctic boundary south of New England, delivering  light to occasionally moderate snow from the early hours of Thursday into Thursday evening with a few to several inches falling across the region during this time. The second part will be a hang-back piece of energy spawning a stronger surface low pressure area that passes just a little closer to the region later Thursday night and early Friday. All the while, a sprawling Arctic high pressure area will be in place across extreme northern New England and southeastern Canada, supplying not only very cold air for the storm to be in the form of fluffy snow, but also a pressure gradient and a moderate to occasionally strong northeast wind, adding Atlantic moisture to the system. This will enhance snowfall especially over eastern MA where the highest totals will likely be realized. All of it winds down and comes to an end during the day on Friday, but winds will increase and shift more to the north, pulling pure Arctic air into the region, as well as blowing the snow around during the after the snowfall, reducing visibility significantly at times. Occasional blizzard conditions are not out of the question. When the snow is done falling, expect total accumulations for the entire event to be in the 7 to 14 inch range in most of the region. However, a few lower totals may occur on the South Coast and over Nantucket, and bands of higher totals may take place near the eastern coastal areas of MA due to ocean enhancement. It is too early to say exactly which communities will see the highest totals. This is something best figured out as the event unfolds. Truth be told, anything in this range won’t make much difference because there will be considerable blowing and drifting of snow. The benefit of having snow with such cold air around is that the very low water content of the snow will make it much easier to move (though the wind will counteract some of our efforts to move it). Total snow accumulation that I expect: 7-14 over most of the region, with a few lighter amounts South Coast and Nantucket, and locally higher amounts possible in parts of eastern MA due to ocean-enhanced snowfall. Watch for minor coastal flooding at times of high tides, especially around midnight Thursday night for east-facing shores and midday Friday for north-facing shores.

The cold: The deep freeze arrives during the storm and remains in place into Saturday. Winds will remain quite gusty, so air temperatures in the single digits above and below zero across the region Friday night and early Saturday, combined with the gusty wind, will drive wind chill values to dangerously low levels.

The moderation: Daytime Saturday will remain very cold, struggling to reach 20, but by Sunday expect it to moderate at least to 30 if not above, ahead of the next weather system.

The next system: There are some uncertainties due to varying guidance, but for the time being I will go for a fast moving system heading northward, passing just west of New England Sunday night and Monday, then dragging a cold front through here. It may warm up significantly as this system makes its approach, then likely turn dramatically colder as it drags a cold front across the region at its conclusion.

Cold again: A fresh batch of Arctic air is likely to arrive behind the Monday system, turning it very cold again for Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

………………………………….

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TONIGHT: Clouding up. Snow developing west to east before dawn but only minor accumulation at most (less than 1 inch). Lows 12-17. Wind light NE.

THURSDAY: Overcast. Snow much of the time, light to moderate in most areas, accumulating up to a few inches during the day. Highs 18-23. Wind NE 10-20 MPH.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Overcast. Snow, light to moderate early, moderate to at times heavy later, accumulating several inches during the night. Blowing and drifting snow. Lows 7-12 except 12-17 South Coast.  Wind NE 15-25 MPH gusting 30-40 MPH. Wind chills around zero.

FRIDAY: Overcast with snow in the morning, tapering off from west to east with time, but accumulating a few more inches (see above for storm totals). Breaking clouds afternoon. Blowing and drifting snow. Temperatures steady 7-12 except 12-17  south Coast. Wind NE to N 15-35 MPH. Wind chills often below zero.

SATURDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows -10 to 0. Highs 15-25.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows 5-15. Highs 32-42.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with rain AM. Breaking clouds PM but chance of rain showers then snow showers. Temperature rise to 45-55 morning, fall to 30s afternoon.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Lows 5-15. Highs 15-25.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows -5 to 5. Highs 15-25.

783 thoughts on “Snow Doubt About It”

  3. Thanks TK.
    Winter Storm Warnings up for southern four counties of CT and a blizzard warning up for Long Island. I would expect the rest of these watches to be upgraded to warnings and would not be surprised if the coastal areas of eastern new england are put under a blizzard warning.

  4. Many thanks TK.

    Just read posts from TOM and JJ. I just was ready to post this on the previous blog.

    For a laugh I’ll post here:

    After looking at 18Z NAM, not sure NWS hoists a Blizzard watch soon.
    I’m guessing it will be sometime after they digest all of the 0Z guidance.
    Just my guess.

    NAM wind data is borderline. And although the snow slowly piles up, it piles slowly.
    Composite radar images were not impressive, however, this was the 18Z NAM.

    All the more reason, I think the NWS waits until after the 0Z runs.

    Even then, it “may” not be issued. I thought for sure earlier. Now I think it is
    50-50.

    Now watch, not sooner I hit POST and WHAM Blizzard warnings will be hoisted. 😀

  6. JJ – just in case you didn’t see this, I have pasted this from the previous blog.

    JJ – Here are my weather predictions for 2014.

    The rest of the winter we will see more snow and more cold temps. I see at least another big snowstorm or 2 before the spring. There will be some mild days here and there but with rain – not much sun when it’s mild- I don’t see a January thaw.

    The spring will be wet and on the cool side; but by the end of the spring it will start to get warmer.

    The summer will have many hot days – I agree w/you on many 90+ days; I just can’t guess on how many. There will be a lot of Severe Thunderstorms watches/warnings and even 1 or 2 Tornado watches/warnings. I am not sure if the draught will be relieved – perhaps with all the winter’s snows and a wet spring, I can’t say.

    The fall will start out warm and won’t cool off sufficiently ’til mid-Oct. I do see a tropical storm in the late summer/early fall but no hurricanes for New England. I will not take a guess on the hurricane season in general for the whole country.

    Next winter I see a lot of snow but not as cold as this winter has been so far.

  10. Thanks TK. I just got a txt from NWS saying winter storm warning in central MA. I get bogus txts from them so not sure if that is correct.

  11. Thank you, TK! My phone just lit up to say we’re in a Winter Storm Warning now 🙂

    All the best for 2014 to my WHW friends 🙂

  14. I agree more with the WSW than the Blizzard Warning for now.

    Doesn’t mean there won’t be blizzard conditions at times where winds are strong enough. We just won’t see the sustained winds that are required for a true blizzard. What’s funny is that they dropped the temperature requirements and we’ll actually meet THOSE instead. 😀

  18. I would love to know why the NWS out of Albany, NY has not upgraded my county in CT to a winter storm warning. It seems a safe bet were going get at least 6 inches of snow.
    Not that I put much stock in but 18z NAM really aggressive and give the CT shoreline and parts of central CT up to a foot of snow when had been showing consitently a general 6-8 inches for those areas.

  20. I think the 18z GFS is closer to what will happen than the 18z NAM that just to me is overdoing the snowfall for central and southern CT giving a foot of snow.
    Have to see where the heavier banding of snow sets up shop especially when were in the meat of this storm tomorrow night. Your under one of those bands for a couple hours that snow could really accumulate.

  21. Am I allowed to chuckle a bit at all the school districts that are going to end up canceling 2 days of school because they couldnt start school the week before Labor Day?

    My wife works in another district that starts after Labor Day. They were already 4 days behind us (3 days in August + day after Labor Day due to teacher orientation)….. My wife always tells me the week before Labor Day is the best week of the summer. I always think its the worst …. too busy everywhere.

    The district she works in is already at Friday June 20th and this would make Tuesday June 24th.

    Meanwhile, Marshfield continues on break, not to lose anytime and next week looks good. June 13th still on track. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. Framingham started before Labor Day and has 2 weeks now but its last day is June 19 if no days missed. Does marshfield celebrate the Jewish holidays. BTW I agree with schools cancelling this thurs and Friday this far ahead. Different circumstances as it may help parents plan return trips that will be difficult.

      And of course you can laugh. May I agree with your wife re last week of summer 😉

      1. The district does not take days for holidays other than Good Friday. There’s usually school on Orthodox Good Friday, this coming year is an exception as they fall on the same weekend.

        It is understood throughout the district that students needing additional days will receive excused absences and get the necessary time to complete work. Giving assessments on those days is discouraged.

        1. Makes sense I think in most cases. Framingham has a very large Jewish population which would leave many class’s with a large percent of absent students.

    2. Tom pembroke started the same as you and goes back tomorrow. I am on vacation this week and told him last week he could stay out the extra two days but he loves school and planning on going tomorrow. But we know school will be out on Friday so why send them back for one day. I think it’s silly.

      1. I believe it’s the same map they had earlier today but ch 5 has increased its numbers in the Boston area

    3. Good maps from both chs 4 and 5. I also like on ch. 4 that 4-6 just west of Worcester as the NNE wind for them is a bit of downsloping (drying).

  25. Yes hadi, I admit it, now that Xmas has come and gone, I’m ready for spring, at the same time I’m a new englander, it’s my wife that hates the cold along with my kids, my kids like the snow some, but not the cold, anyways I’m interested in 00z nam

    1. Wind is my only concern. Might fall “just” short of criteria.
      We’ll see what 0Z guidance has to say. If there is a change, blizzard warnings go up, if not WSW remain. 😀 😀

  28. Thanks TK. Already had to put a message on our employee “weather” line stating that we are open tomorrow. You wouldn”t believe how many texts, e-mails, calls I will get between now and Friday. Let the craziness begin.

    1. Now that’s odd to go back just one day. Framingham originally had the start date jan 6 then changed to Jan 2 then went back to the 6th. My guess is it was not an easy decision for the schools

      2. Also received it in a txt message from City of Boston, along with Snow Emergency for Thursday at 12 noon.

  31. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not complaining but this is the lamest looking over 6″ storm I think I’ve ever seen on paper.

  33. A whole lot of places that were scheduled to go back Thursday will cancel both days so they don’t have to activate buses and fully heat buildings for one day. That much makes sense. No decision will please everybody. It’s just something to deal with. We’ll all get to the finish line of the year one way or another.

    Regarding the Labor Day thing, I agree with going back to school before Labor Day as long as it is September 1 or later. I am not in favor of school in August. Nor am I in favor of longer school days or years. Kids need to learn, but they also need to be kids! Too much demand put on them at too young an age, and we wonder why so many young people are troubled. Between too many demands and some bad parenting, there’s your answer.

    Editorial over. Back to weather. 😀

    3. Check the philosophy of the Finland school system. One of the best in the world. We could learn from them but of course we won’t.

      Climbing off soap box 🙂

    1. Its the only map with numbers 7 has had and they have yet to change it since it came out…..today maybe? I have to check my records.

  36. Harvey had the jackpot area throughout the south shore. 12-15 boston 12-18 down this way. What’s a few more inches.

  37. Yes, the message of this storm is spread …….. and that can only mean one thing …..

    All the 0z runs later tonight will come in at 1-3 inches. 🙂

      1. Gee, you mean broad 7-14 inches? LOL

        Looks like you made your forecast from this map! 😀
        Of course you didn’t. I mean you may have used it among many
        other tools.

        😀

    3. Blame it on the crappy server and bad graphics overlay (ie: to far east) on the Burlington web site 😉

  41. Thanks TK! First…I love the title!!

    If I had school this week I would be so excited for the possible school cancellations. So I guess I will just pretend that classes are cancelled at my school due to snow until January 27th–the day my vacation is over. Hahhaa! 🙂

  43. I have to say – from an “end User” perspective – I am surprised by the amount of attention this storm is getting. Everyone agrees this is not a blockbuster but you would think 10 feet of snow was coming. Not a flake yet and everything is shutting down.

    1. I couldn’t agree more.

      Woburn just cancelled tomorrow & Friday, but I think more because they figured Friday would be called off anyway, so why open and heat a dozen buildings for one day (Thursday). So from that perspective, I get it.

      2. From that perspective, makes sense. Now if the forecast is
        a BUST, craploads of red faces. 😀 😀

    3. Actually this storm will likely prove to be a blockbuster. A foot to a foot and a half is quite a storm and some locations may approach 20 inches when all is set and done.

        2. You can head my way. I have a nice batch of humble pie awaiting should this turn out to be a bust Vicki! 😀

  47. re: Blizzard from NWS

    WE THOUGHT A LOT ABOUT ISSUING BLIZZARD WATCHES AND WARNINGS. AT THIS TIME WE THINK THAT THE FULL CRITERIA FOR A BLIZZARD WILL NOT BE MET…BUT IT IS VERY CLOSE. AS SUCH WILL UPGRADE THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND CONTINUE TO MENTION NEAR-BLIZZARD CONDITIONS AT TIMES. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST OF MA…AS WELL AS THE COASTAL PLAIN OF SOUTHEAST MA. LATER SHIFTS CAN REEVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO THIS EVENT.

    1. At the moment, I agree with this. As I said previously, earlier on I was
      certain that a blizzard warning would be issued.

      We’ll see how additional guidance goes. They have until late tomorrow
      afternoon for that.

      I think it is good they are doing it this way. IF it looks like it needs to be done, they’ll do it.

      Look at this from DT:

      Wxrisk.com
      *** Can ANYONE explains WHY NWSO BOS decide to NOT go with Blizzard warnings for New England? How os the decsiion REMOTELY justified?

      he he he

      BECAUSE the wind criteria won’t quite be there. Very very close, close enough that they may have to issue the warning later. We shall see.

    1. Hadi,

      They very well may. They will be pouring over 0Z data. IF the winds look
      to be up and the snow intensity is still there, then HOIST AWAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!

      We shall see. It would be cool. Hope they do.

    2. Depends upon which model you look at, OR who you wish to believe. 😀

      First Flakes have appeared in SW CT.

      Here’s the first of the snow developing.

      http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/northeast_loop.php

      http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

      Not a hole lot out there, but it is developing and will be filling in.

      For our area, my guess is somewhere between 3 and 6 AM.

      TK????

  50. I am surprised of the amount of cancelations of schools tomorrow. Friday yes, thursday no. would have through early releases. post my latest thoughts on snowfall in a few

    1. Logistics of opening schools for one day, heating the buildings, preparing food, running buses. Made more sense to just keep it shut down until Monday.

  51. To: Vicki

    Would you be able to post our snow total forecast in ascending/descending order along with the Logan actual through December 31st?

  52. Blizzard warnings will indeed be posted later this evening or by early tomorrow morning. Winds of 35+ for 3 consecutive hours appears likely very late thursday night-into early friday morning for eastern most sections. A locale or two will achieve 20 inches of snow while most of eastern mass is blanketed by 12-18 inches. From 495 north and west, 6-12 inches, however, due to downsloping, dry air may not allow max snow totals to be reached across central MA. Enjoy the storm everyone and be safe!

    1. Nice to hear from you Arod. Hope you are correct.

      They will if there are some slight changes with the 0Z guidance, else they won’t.
      Just my opinion.

      2. Enjoy OS. I know that you’ve been waiting for this since last winter. Just a few days ago you had out the UGH meter 😀 Now we can finally throw that thing away.

        1. Tom it’s a bonus for you. You get to stay home and not worry about if school is closing and since you don’t go back till 1/6 you did not burn 2 snow days.

      2. Well. I just dug out my snow socks. I wore them two times in last couple of years. Before Halloween storm and before Feb 9. Let’s see if they still have power

  54. I have a question and hope I can state it without confusion …..

    Lets say Boston currently is progged for .7 melted and Marshfield 1.0 …..

    How much of that do we think is the synoptic precip from the southern stream storm ? What if that precip totally missed ?

    In other words, is the disturbance coming in tonight and the general NE wind component over 12-18 hrs worth 50% of these precip totals, 80% ….., etc.

    1. Outstanding question and very difficult to answer.

      NWS said ONLY 4 inches of ocean enhancement.

      Synoptically, take a look at that 4km WRF qpf map I posted
      earlier.

      It has mostly .5 inches back from the coast.

      So if we use it’s 1.25 for the big snow enhancement areas on the South Shore,
      then that is .75 of enhancement on top of the .5 synoptic.

      So, I think we can round and say that approximately 50% of qpf will be enhanced.

      We need Tk to chime in on this.

      Tom what do you think?

      1. Well …. I think the southern stream system is going to directly contribute a very small amount of precip from its precip shield. Indirectly, the storm in combination with the high to the N will throw Atlantic moisture into the region.

        If all these snow predictions, based on the models QPF isnt dependent on the southern system, then, I feel confident about the snow predictions. But, if we’re dependent on actually getting into the precip shield from the southern storm, then I’ll get nervous. Depends what that percentage is. 🙂 🙂

    1. Not very far west either. Plus I can’t tell what color west of black line is. It needs work. Matt and Coastal might be able to help them with their map skills 🙂

    2. I agree with it. Very fluffy snow, not astronomical amounts, very minor coastal flooding, no tree damage from heavy/wet snow, no wind damage. Those amounts inland with less wind should be a 2 on their scale.

  57. I am curious with 0z run of the NAM will it back down from the foot it was calling for with the 18z run for central and southern CT. Already a few flakes falling out my window in the last half hour with many more to come before this things wraps up Friday morning.

  58. From NWS out of Upton. I love the words stay tuned
    LARGE SCALE ASCENT GLIDING OVER A WELL DEFINED ARCTIC WEDGE WILL
    CAUSE THIS WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EVENT. IN FACT…THE
    LATEST FORECAST MODELS ARE TRENDING WETTER…WHICH IF THEY PERSIST
    WILL RESULT IN HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

    STAY TUNED…AS WEATHER CONTINUOUSLY CHANGES.

  59. I’m looking at the radar image at hr 28 and my instinct is that the 0z NAM looks like its producing more snow than its 18z run.

  60. Just was reading Eric fishers blog just posted. Boy he really knows how to write a blog. Check it out if you have time.

    1. I really like Eric Fishers’ style of presentation! Totally understand why WBZ went with him. Another great addition to the WBZ’s weather family!

  62. Headed to NYC in the morning for 2 days of meetings that are not getting changed. I will be out of touch for the most part, but my forecast from earlier today still seems pretty solid. Enjoy the the next couple of days, be safe, have fun!

    JMA

  66. I think coastal low ends up even closer. I would not be surprised to see a two foot reading from cape ann through Boston down to south shore. Storm has been trending wetter.

    1. Hadi my opinion boston won’t see two feet but down this way has a decent shot. I should say I don’t think boston sees two feet.

  67. Looking at 00z nam no way Long Island should be under blizzard warning but not us. Nam still wants to throw down. 12-20.

    1. I’m sorry to keep bringing this up but as I and tk said last night the nam is not reliable. If anybody gets 2feet it will be on the south shore and somewhere towards the cape.

  73. Well that run no longer showing a foot of snow for where I am in CT. Its very similar to what the GFS has been saying with a 6-8 inch snowfall. Eastern New England enjoy as you look to be the winners from this storm system.

  79. I know that we should take one storm at a time, but do I sense “flash freeze” for Monday afternoon?

    Your thoughts on this TK? Thanks in advance.

    1. Haven’t looked much at Monday, but from what I can tell, that storm is gone early, then we have a chance to dry out with a gusty wind before the real cold air arrives. Will have to watch for areas that water can pool in and around snowbanks left behind by the upcoming snow.

  82. I wonder how many people (not here, but in general) are going to start screaming “bust!” when it is hardly snowing in much of eastern MA from mid afternoon to early evening tomorrow.

    1. I agree – honestly, I was a bit surprised to see the flakes so early – I thought for sure it’d start around the morning commute; my gut says we might have some lulls in the storm.

  83. By current definition, I don’t believe a blizzard warning is warranted in southern New England. The one issued for Long Island is marginal, with sustained winds staying mainly below what is needed. That said, it may be time to revisit the definition of blizzard. First, the temps become insignificant, and now they may need to tweak the wind. Air fluff snow is a whole lot easier to lift off the ground into a blowing fashion that will reduce visibility than is snow that is much wetter. A 30-40 MPH wind will drive visibility way down when it’s working on the type of snow we’re about to get. There are just too many variables for all these rigid definitions. Instead of advising about conditions, they are worrying about hard #’s.

  86. From NWS:

    A COASTAL STORM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH DANGEROUSLY
    LOW WIND CHILLS TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING…

    BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN
    PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND CAPE COD TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING…

    WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST FRIDAY…

    * LOCATIONS…NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

    * HAZARD TYPES…HEAVY SNOW AND DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS
    TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
    DRIFTING SNOW RESULTING IN POOR VISIBILITY.

    * ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES.

    * TIMING…PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED AT TIMES TODAY.
    THERE ACTUALLY MAY BE BREAK IN THE LIGHT SNOW LATER THIS
    MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
    SNOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

    * IMPACTS…HEAVY SNOW/GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY LOW WIND CHILLS ALONG WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

    * WINDS…NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

    * VISIBILITIES…ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

    1. I saw that as well on weatherunderground’s radar…… I dont think its part of the main system, but it is another bit of moisture being drawn into this arctic airmass.

  88. I like where I’m sitting for this !!

    1/2 inch so far ….. Looks nice to have the brown earth covered again.

    Most interested for my local area in the overnight hrs ….. Perhaps focusing on a 6 hr window, when at 850 mb, the flow is northeast ….. and at the surface, the wind is also NNE (which brings a few hundred mile fetch of frigid air thats been over the ocean directly into SE mass)

    Its going to be impossible to measure, so instead, I’ll be interested to see that small area that is S+ tonight in SE Mass and whether it sits on one spot. One very thin strip of SE Mass is going to get clobbered tonight and I hope Marshfield is in it.

    1. When do you think ocean effect will kick in? Winds seem to be fairly light (under 10mpg) for the moment.

      1. In 2 phases …….

        Later this afternoon, I think we’ll see a general enhancement of the snowfall from Cape Ann, through Boston and all of SE Mass back to perhaps Providence. That will be some moisture being added from the ocean (sort of like when after a storm, it can drizzle in eastern Mass, long after the big rains have departed)

        The wildcard, overnight …. Perhaps 10-4 am, from Hingham going southwest to maybe 10-15 miles away from the coastline ….. Real, true, possible intense strings of ocean effect snow, the kind you see on the radar near the Great Lakes. Do they in fact form, and do they sit over one area ? Should be fun to watch !!

        1. Tom, I’ve been worried about this all along.
          Please see discussion from NWS below.
          They think models are UNDERPLAYING the ocean
          effect.

          What you said above can happen ALL along the coast,
          but I agree could be most pronounced where you indicate.

          Sometimes with the right set up, Lake Effect snows
          especially Lake Ontario, can dump 5+ inches per hour.
          AND I might add, that snow is very low water content, so the rations could be 25:1, 30:1 or so. Not saying that’s what happens, just saying that it is out there
          and some places may get absolutely clobbered.

          I remember long ago, Oswego, NY got 7 feet in one
          lake effect event.

          It’s just something with this perfect setup to watch
          out for. 😀 😀 😀

  90. Yaaaaawn…..good morning. I just couldn’t sleep.
    Snowing pretty good here. About 1-2 inches on the ground already.

    Re: Ocean effect snow from NWS

    THERE ARE TWO MAIN FACTORS THAT WILL MAKE FOR A VERY SIGNIFICANT STORM IN THIS REGION. THE FIRST IS THAT THE MID LEVEL CENTERS WILL BEGIN TO CLOSE OFF RESULTING IN BETTER INFLOW IN THIS REGION. THE OTHER AND SOMETHING THAT WE DON/T OFTEN SEE IS A TREMENDOUS SETUP FOR OCEAN EFFECT ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE EASTERN MA COAST. GIVEN THE VERY COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE…THERE IS AN 850 MB TO SST TEMPERATURE DIFFERENTIAL THAT WILL EXCEED 20C. THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS POTENTIAL…BUT WONDER IF THEIR UNDER PLAYING THIS A BIT. ITS SUCH A MESOSCALE SITUATION AND THERE AREN/T MANY INSTANCES WHERE WE SEE SUCH A SETUP FOR OCEAN ENHANCEMENT.

    hmmm seems I have heard this here before. 😀 😀

  91. My general thoughts about the question of Blizzard criteria- If it alerts the public of how bad it could be then it is a good thing. I feel being conservative now is just being bull headed and the way the wind is projected to be( Pretty close criteria) and how cold it is going to be I would want the people to be prepared and have extra blankets in their cars to ride something out if something happens to them.

  92. 06Z NAM snow fall map. No significant changes. Still shows ocean enhancements.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014010206&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048

    06GFS snow Map holding course:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014010206&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048

    06Z GEM-REG

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Boston&mod=gemreg&run=06&var=prcp&lang=en&map=us

    28 or 29 MM or about 1.1 inch qpf

    0Z 15 km FIM

    http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/for_web/fim9_jet/2014010200/236/totp_sfc_f060.png

    This is up.

  93. I’ve been up all night doing ap history hw that i procrastinated on but we got the call af 5:30am for no school. I don’t think i’ve ever been this happy to go to sleep!

    2. Wundermap still out of commission, at least for the Euro.

      On Instant Maps, 0Z Euro looked good. I hate the 24 hour increments though!!!

      Anyone with Euro QPF?

  96. Just a coating here with the best snows up in Massachusetts. Send that foot of snow my way please for those in eastern new england. Many early dissmals today across CT with a few closings.

    1. I also see some development on the most eastern side of the shield the is moving to the east it appears.

    2. This loop shows it a little better. IF you look carefully you can
      spot some echoes moving towards the West or SW underneath
      the synoptic echoes moving towards the East. It’s subtle but
      it’s there. 😀

      http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=BOX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&delay=15&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=0&remembersettings=on&setprefs.0.key=RADNUM&setprefs.0.val=6&setprefs.1.key=RADSPD&setprefs.1.val=15&setprefs.2.key=RADC&setprefs.2.val=0&setprefs.3.key=RADSTM&setprefs.3.val=0&setprefs.4.key=SLABS&setprefs.4.val=1&setprefs.5.key=RADRMS&setprefs.5.val=1&setprefs.6.key=RADLIT&setprefs.6.val=0&setprefs.7.key=RADSMO&setprefs.7.val=0&MR=1

        1. It will get more intense tonight when it starts getting
          colder and the differential between Ocean temp and
          surface and 850MB temps will be at it’s greatest.
          That causes lots of instabilitywiht rising moist air and the NE wind pushes it on shore, where frictional convergence does it’s thing and squeezes the crap out of it, dumping SNOW!

          Could get really hairy out there tonight.

      1. I think you’re right, Hadi
        620 AM EST THU JAN 2 2014
        AS FOR HEADLINES WE KEPT WINTER STORM WARNINGS FOR BOSTON TO THE NORTH SHORE… ALTHOUGH NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR A TIME TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WE DID UPGRADE EASTERN PLYMOUTH COUNTY AND CAPE COD TO A BLIZZARD WARNING WHERE OUR CONFIDENCE IN STRONG WINDS/HEAVY SNOW WAS HIGHEST. TRAVEL MAY BECOME IMPOSSIBLE FOR A TIME IN THIS REGION WITH NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AS WINDS GUST TO 50 MPH. LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO CONSIDER EXPANDING BLIZZARD WARNING…BUT GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE SYSTEM DIDN/T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO DO THAT AT THIS TIME.
        http://www.nws.noaa.gov/view/prodsByState.php?state=MA&prodtype=discussion

  101. This first little batch of snow is setting up shop north of the pike through southern VT and NH. I cant tell yet where the bulk of our snow will come from. Lots of gulf moisture coming up and pieces of energy back through the plains but nothing resembling a storm yet. Almost like we have a 200 piece puzzle to do but all the pieces are scattered around the room.

  102. Glad to see the blizzard warning for south but still think all id the immediate coast
    Should be under one.

    1. Now I AGREE again, especially after looking at the latest Graphic.

      Hadi, do you have Euro qpf? and snow map?

      Thanks

      Time to make the donuts. Later.

  104. Hi fellow WHW bloggers and Happy New Year.

    I dropped off for a few weeks after the mashed potato storm (12/14-12/15). My father suffered a fatal heart attack snow-blowing that Sunday morning. He was only 68, so he was too young to go in my eyes. He was a true New Englander, loved sports, outdoors, the weather and most importantly his family.

    He would absolutely love a good snow storm – since I can remember he would always turn on the back yard flood lights and watch the flakes fly. I will carry on that tradition and many others.

    Looking forward to tonight – the Snow Camp membership desk is now operational around the clock to accommodate the surge in traffic.

    1. I’m sorry captain, I know there are others as well as myself that are dealing with a recent death of a parent. It’s tough.

    3. Captain – I am so sorry for your loss. I lost my mother last wknd. My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family. I have a feeling he will somehow be enjoying this snowstorm.

    10. Captain and Rainshine, I am so sorry about your dad and mom… I lost my mom a little over a year ago suddenly too, I know how hard you are both hurting. Hugs to both of you.

    1. Brighton (Mass Pike) is right on the fringe of 20″. Suspect we may get a little more than 14″, but not as much as the south shore.

  106. Framingham has school. The kicker is that they have two calendars online. The first to pop up says school resumes Monday. The second has it start today. So daughter is totally caught off guard and sent her car with car seats to work with husband since her car has 4WD

  109. Longshot – here are the totals. I am not positive on total recorded in Boston as I had to do it quickly – have a busy day. I have 11.7 with snow on 12/7,9,10,14,15,17,26 – did I miss any??

    John 80.0
    Hadi 68.8
    Cat966g 65.0
    shotime 58.0
    Tjammer 57.7
    North 52.6
    Shreedhar 52.0
    Scott77 51.0
    Longshot 48.0
    Vicki 43.3
    kane 41.6
    Matt S 39.5
    TK 38.8
    Haterain 38.0
    JimmyJames 36.2
    Charlie 35.4
    rainshine 35.0
    WeatherWiz 32.1
    Joshua 32.0
    Philip 31.7
    AceMaster 30.5
    Old Salty 28.5
    Retrac 27.7
    Sue 24.2
    Tom 19.4

  110. Cleaned off about 1/2 inch from the car this morning. Snowing lightly again, very fine snowflakes. I think theres more salt on my company parking lot than in the whole town of Walpole, lol

  111. At work now. Roads were a MESS!!

    Measure 1.25 inches at about 7:45AM at my house.

    Snowing decently here. Vis about 1.5 to 1.75 miles. Wind picking up.

    Ocean snow is getting established. Look at it on this loop. Very evident

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

  112. Some more thoughts:

    1. When I brushed off my car, I tried to estimate the ratio. It was higher than 10:1,
    but I don’t think it was 20:1. My total and complete guess was something between
    12:1 and no more than 15:1. That ratio is sure to go UP later.

    2. Had anyone mentioned the T word? I don’t think synopitically, we’ll be close enough
    to get into any Thunder. HOWEVER, IF and I say IF, some of the Ocean Effect Snow
    Bands are intense enough, we could get some THUNDER SNOW.

    Specifically, the air temperature at an altitude where the air pressure is 850 millibars (85 kPa) (roughly 1.5 kilometers or 0.93 miles vertically) should be 13 °C (23 °F) lower than the temperature of the air at the surface. Lake-effect occurring when the air at 850 millibars (85 kPa) is much colder than the water surface can produce thundersnow, snow showers accompanied by lightning and thunder (caused by larger amounts of energy available from the increased instability).

    Have fun all.

  113. Yes oldsalty fisher did mention thunder snow in his blog lastnight. In honer of the occasion I downloaded thunderstruck on my iPod. I’d say about an inch here in pembroke and snowing very lightly.

      1. ABSOLUTELY!!! big time! Gotta love that radar loop.

        Those bands may rotate down towards the South Shore later.

        IF they stick around where they are, Boston is going to get
        absolutely PASTED!!! 😀 😀

  117. This OCEAN SNOW is intensifying!!

    Visibility here just dropped UNDER 1 MILE. I can NO Longer see
    Mission Church from my office window. 😀 😀

    1. Looking out my Weather Office here in downtown Roxbury, MA, I can’t see Mission Church, which means vis under 1 mile. Further I can’t see 1/2 way there, so the vis is about 1/2 mile here which makes it Moderate Snow.

      I’m a stickler, so I can’t say it’s heavy snow here. Doesn’t mean it isn’t
      in JP.

      Just reporting here. 😀

    2. Nice ! You surely can see the ocean enhancement around Boston and the north shore, earlier than I expected !

      What surprises me too are these little intense bands moving up from the south over SE Mass.

      A fine, misty snow here in Marshfield.

      1. Tom, those little intense bands are interesting arent they? Almost like little feeder bands from the outer bands of a hurricane

  121. A blizzard warning is in effect for eastern Plymouth county and Barnstable. I would think western Plymouth county where I am should be included in this as well would you think.

  122. To Captain,

    I am sorry to hear about your loss. I know how hard that can be.

    My mother passed away the Saturday before Xmas and it has been more than difficult.

    Again sorry to hear the news,

    Longshot

  123. I came into work in Boston today (No, I do not know why I did this.) and I literally cannot see Cambridge across the river.

      1. Just the last couple days. If his area doesn’t get snow he downplays everything else. Saying this is an average snow for Boston. But to me a forecast of 12+ inches is not average

  125. Thought …. There is a temp contrast and a coastal front set up ….

    Check out the harbor buoy 27F with an 060 wind, meanwhile Logan is 19 with an 010 wind. …… Further is 25-30F In Marshfield, points SE, teens north and west.

    I still think this (ocean enhancement) is earlier than expected. Nice surprise.

    1. Can we all say CONVERGENCE!!!

      AWESOME!!!

      And YES, this has ALL set up EARLY!!!

      And it is COMING DOWN big time!!

      😀 😀

  127. I dont know if anyone mentioned this earlier, but the NWS painted a few purple dots of 14-18 inches into a few towns just SW of Boston at around a 7:15am update to their snowfall projections.

  130. OK, NOW I can safely say:

    HEAVY SNOW here.

    Man, is it coming down and BLOWING around already too. 😀

  134. From NWS this AM (sorry if this is a repeat)

    THE EXCEPTION TO THE LULL IN THE STEADY ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
    PROBABLY BE ACROSS EASTERN MA LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST FLOW AND 850 MB TO SST DIFFERENTIAL CLOSE TO 20C WILL RESULT IN OCEAN EFFECT BANDS OF SNOW. MAY SEE SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY AMOUNTS WHERE SOME AREAS PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. THE MESOSCALE MODELS HINT AT THIS SOMEWHAT…BUT THEY TOO MAY BE UNDERDONE.

    Hey NWS, YA THINK?????????

  135. I’ve seen some discussions about the 850 mb and I think 700 mb circulations and their potential impact on the snow totals for us in this event. Well, those potential outcomes are still well to our west and southwest. I’d think the real, expected moisture influx along the coast is yet to come.

    With this localized occurence happening this morning, perhaps the 20 inch idea is plausible at Logan and the immediate suburbs.

    1. Tom,

      OH yeah and then Some. We’re in for it big time.

      Just had a discussion with my boss. We very well may be closed tomorrow and very likely to have an early dismissal today. If the Gov declares an emergency,
      we’re closed.

      I was asked to make sure I have our employee list with phone numbers
      to our reverse 911 service provider, so calls can go out in the AM
      if necessary. Guess who has to make the recording and upload it?

      Yup, me, myself and I. 😀 😀

  136. What are those heavy bands moving up from the South??

    HOLY CRAP BATMAN.

    It’s SNOWPOCALYPSE!!!!

    Unless something changes dramatically, I think this could end up being
    an HISTORIC event in places. 😀 😀 😀

  137. Ya know what i love about snow? The majority of us on this blog are older, with the exception of a few in high school/college. Whenever it snows, no matter the ages of people on here, we all turn into kids. I love how snow does that to us 🙂

  139. It has been snowing heavily in Manchester, NH with about 3 inches on the ground. The Merrimack Valley has also been in some heavy bands all morning.

  140. Vis here fluctuates. Awhile ago it let up a bit and vis went to 1/2 to 3/4 mile, then
    WHAM right back down to about 1/4 mile or so. Snowing heavily again now.

    It looks like a FULL BLOWN snowstorm out there. Hey wait a minute, it is!!! 😀 😀

  141. Was just outside …..

    Surprised to have very few low clouds …. I can see some, but they are few and far between.

    Its a higher level deck of clouds, pretty uniform, except ironically, towards my northern horizon, where its brighter and almost has a few breaks in that higher level cloud deck.

    Just spitting 1 or 2 flurries right now with an unusually cold, for Marshfield, NE wind.

  142. I have to go out – an grandson is in school – am I understanding that there may not be the lull this afternoon as expected or will it still be a lull in my area (framingham)? It appears a hole is opening to my SSW???

    1. Vicki,

      In my opinion, strictly an opinion based on what I see on radar, I do NOT
      think you see a lull. From what I can see, you are at the Western extent
      of the Ocean snow and it looks like you’ll stay there.

      Please don’t kill me IF I am wrong. Hopefully others will offer an opinion.

      😀

      1. OS – I would never fault you if it didn’t turn out that way. Been here long enough to know that weather is anything but a science and you (and others here) do an incredible job interpreting it.

        That being said, thank you very much for your answer. I don’t know what to do and am furious that Framingham not only messed up the school calendar but has the kids in school.

        1. Very Sad indeed. In their defense, the weather messed them up. They were probably counting on that LULL that was so heavily advertised.

          How is the snow intensity out that way. Hopefully not
          as intense as here.

          Good luck and be safe.

  143. Thanks everyone and to those who recently lost a parent (longshot, coastal, rainshine) my condolences to you as well.

      2. Snowing lightly in Walpole, still holding at about 1/2.” Not seeing the piling up numbers there are just up route 1 into Boston

    2. Hold that thought coastal. Even you may be surprised.
      Area wide, it may not be historic, but it would not surprise me one bit
      to have it be historic in places. We shall see. 😀

  146. Its been mentioned above, those echoes to the south ….

    They have really consolidated around Fall River, New Bedford … they must be getting dumped on down there.

    From snow prediction contours, its impossible to confidently put in small fingers of localized large snow amounts into the correct spots. I think the post event, actual snowfall contours are going to be fascinating to look at.

  147. Charlie hole is still veru much intact. Northern Bristol county has nada. Radar echos seem to be avoiding that area like the plague. Coastal’s map might just verify after all! 😉

  149. Man I hate this snow ONLY because I have been alone with my kids for 1.5 weeks on vacation (wife working) and today and tomorrow were school days (aka my alone days). Too much family time is a bad thing. Now we are all stuck together until Monday morning. Joy. 🙂

  150. Not sure how accurate, but radar estimated 2.0″ of snow in Boston so far, with 0.10″ liquid. That’s a 20:1 ratio

  151. The snow in pembroke shut off for now. I wonder if that ban Tom is seeing will pop up here. Off to Halifax for a haircut and looking forward to see if there just down the they might be still in it.

    1. Just in from Matt Noyes:

      Matt Noyes: Broadcast Meteorologist
      Visibility now down to 1/4 mile in numerous spots under the blue/green radar returns in Southern New England:

      Thanks Matt, we didn’t know that. 😀 😀

  153. Charles Orloff ‏@charlesorloff 3m

    Coastal front passed Blue Hill at 9:55 shifting wind NNE to ENE…now gusting to 35mph

  154. Just an observation, but this Ocean Effect Snow we have been experiencing
    SEEMS to be EXPANDING…

    Even IF this is not an historic storm, IT may very well be a BOSTON
    Historic Ocean Effect event.

    As far as I can remember, the most Boston ever received from an Ocean Effect
    event was about 8 inches. I don’t know HOW this can be verified OR if there
    is even info on this.

    PLUS how does one determine it when it gets combined with Synoptic snow later on.

    Virtually impossible.

  156. 1.5 even here. Friend in Kennebunkport says they have 2.5 but not sure how accurate she is measuring. Will they get more due to ocean effect?

    1. Vicki,

      I’d say NO. They’re getting some synoptic snow.
      I just checked the Portland, ME radar. Echoes are NOT moving
      from East to West up there, confirming it is Synoptic snow or mostly so.
      The wind there more parallels the coast. Could provide a little
      “Speed” convergence, but not the frictional type we are getting.

      😀

  157. 13.9 with winds gusting 3-9 mph. 1mi visibility according to wunderground station down the street. Light but consistent snow. Areas shoveled immediately turn white (light coating)

  158. Another Observation, if I may.

    Just checked the 10AM obs

    14 At Bedford, light snow, vis 1.0 mile, Wind NORTH
    20 at Beverly, snow, vis .25 miles, Wind NE
    24 at Boston, snow, vis .5 miles, WIND NE

    We have a bit of a convergence zone as well going on here and a coastal front.

    We have every mechanism known to man to produce LIFT and in this case, SNOW!

  159. Ocean affect bands not making it much further out of the Boston neighborhoods. The intense thin bands to the south are fascinating. I think they are a linked to the first area of low pressure that was supposed to pass waaay to the S and E has come up a little closer and is interacting with the arctic air in our area and exploding with bursts of snow

    1. I’ve been watching that band creep up, cant wait to get under it for my first look at heavier snow!

    1. The ob is taken at the small airport in town, which is located about another mile to mile and a half, further east down Rte. 139.

      It receives even more ocean influence than does a good part of town.

      So, yes, at the fairly eastern part of town where the ob is taken, I’d believe its 32F. At my house, its 28F and I’d bet at exit 12 off of Rte. 3 at the Pembroke/Marshfield line, its probably about 25F.

      In the summer at exit 12, it can be like 88F and get to the airport, its 74F.

    2. There’s a definite front setting up and moving in fast. Looks like its made it all the way to rt 24 and even closing in on some places along 95. Brockton and Easton, even Canton at 26 with an EASTerly wind. Sharon, Walpole, and Norwood 17-18 degrees, winds NORTH.

  164. I’m wondering if boston because its getting more now than thought at this time may get a tad less with the main event tonight, probably not but just a thought.

    1. John, not all of Plymouth County. Just far eastern sections within a few miles of the coastline. Pembroke is not.

  166. Duxbury Fire PIO ‏@DXFD_PIO 2m

    Blue fish river has flooded over and impassable, also king Caesar road has started to flood #MAsnow
    Retweeted by (DRAGON) FIRESPAHK

  167. Snow just filled in all up and down the coast. Snowing from NH border all the way
    along the coast to the Cape.

    Radar intensity doesn’t look so great in Boston, but still snowing at same rate here. 😀

    11AM OBS

    Boston Wind at 050 gusting to 30 already!!! That’s incredible!!! temp 25
    SNOW vis .5
    Beverly Wind at 050 gusting to 23, vis .25 temp 20
    Bedford wind at 020 at 10, temp down to 11!!!!!! Light snow, vis 1.0
    Norwood, wind at 360 at 7, temp 18 light snow, vis 1.0
    Lawrence, wind at 020 gusting to 19, temp 10, snow vis .5

    There’s some really cold air poised to move in.

    This ocean effect snow does not appear to want to quit anytime soon. 😀

  168. I’m really surprised by how much we have in the south end so far. I don’t know if I just wasn’t paying attention to the timing correctly, but I was not anticipating several inches until well into the evening.

    We park on the street – hoping my significant other makes it home in time from work to snag a spot. I’ts always a fight!! 🙂

      1. Oh believe me. After you’ve been towed once, you don’t forget!! 🙂

        Luckily it’s just main roads. Not most of the side streets where we park.

      1. Its the sustained winds i think they are getting hung up on. I dont believe those will come within blizzard criteria west of where the warnings are now.

  172. Not for nothing, BUT is anything going to happen when the heavy bands
    from the South Meet up with the Ocean bands up in the Boston area????

    Are we going to get some sort of stupendous lift and gigantic snowfall rates????

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=10&delay=15&rbscale=0.3869565217391304&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=431&map.y=225&centerx=400&centery=240&lightning=0&smooth=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1

  173. between 1″-1 1/2″ in sherborn, visibility is 1 mi+ w/light winds (snow is dropping straight down).. picking up my cousin at Logan later, flight is supposed to touch down around 6PM

    one time I was flying into Logan during a snow storm and they closed the airport while we were en-route… the pilot comes on and says we are not landing in Boston – option A was Montreal and option B was Portland, ME.. we end up landing in Maine, but that airport should have been closed too – plane was all over the place coming down on a snow covered runway – good time had by all

  174. Snowing at a good clip in North Plymouth and the winds have picked up quite a bit. I saw a post on facebook stating that Massport reps are considering suspending all flights at logan as of 8:00 pm.

  175. I think after this band comes through thats down in the Brockton area comes through that might be it for a while. No new bands forming to the south and any activity looks to be moving east now that was coming up from the south. Ocean affect starting to look less impressive on radar. I think we now have to watch down the coast to where the coastal development takes place. Everything not coming together down there just yet.

  176. It looks like the snow is winding now in the northshore but those bands to our south hopefully will make it all the way yo boston
    Already 3 inches in Reading, ma

  178. Lots of wind, about 1.5 inches of new snow i still had about 3 inches of that crusted iced over snow from before.. snow is going sideways. visibilites less than a half mile. the radar is showing no snow for my area is falling currently. Im wondering if just the small elevation differences from surrounding areas is having anything to do with this boarderline light/moderate snow is falling even though the radar is not picking up on it.

  179. Just going to point this out i believe the radar system is having a hard time seeing the snow falling across northeast massachusetts. for some reason.

  183. On surface maps and great lakes looping radar, what I’m keying on is what is currently in the Ohio area.

    I’ve tried to posts currents obs and radar links from that general area and keeping losing them. 🙁

    Anyway, from surface obs, there’s definitely a low observable. North winds in Ohio, SW winds in West Virginia, east winds in western Pennsylvania.

    In the radar loop, the light snows in Ohio are moving from north to south.

    I think its this subtle circulation that keys overnight.

    I’m not really sure if we get much back into this precip shield.

    But, as this subtle, progressive circulation passes to our south and southeast, for a window, coastal New England gets on the north side of that circulation.

    If it were marginally cold tonight, it might be yawn city.

    But because of the arctic, frigid air set to pour in, as this subtle circulation passes by, it might be that few hour overlap period (being in the north to northwestern part of that broad circulation, at the time of the arrival of the arctic air) that the snow explodes along the coastline overnight.

    Maybe ??? 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

  184. Something is up with the radar. It has been snowing all morning in Worcester, but is not showing up on the radar.

  185. Ok here we go.

    Ocean Snow Collapsing quickly from the North and West.

    Still snowing good in Boston, but for how long?

    It sure looks to SHUT down and give us that lull after all. Can’t win for nothing.

    Oh well, it is what it is.

    Also, those bands moving up disappeared, Weird.

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=10&delay=15&rbscale=0.3869565217391304&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=431&map.y=225&centerx=400&centery=240&lightning=0&smooth=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1

  186. OK guys, I need a good argument to close the office in Boston tomorrow. We are making a decsion later today. Does anyone have a CONSERVATIVE ESTIMATE of the overnight snowfall we could expect right in the heart of beantown?

    2. Too uncertain to even venture a guess …..

      How bout this question….

      Where do the majority of the employees travel from ? Are they coming in from the west and NW or from the SE. That could be impactful.

  188. Its amazing to me how the media and people in government, love to sensationalize winter storms.Talk of closing roads, press conferences; all over a foot of snow. I could understand if we were going to get 2-3 feet in 12 hrs with winds of 5o mph. This is whats going to happen the snow will fall, the wind will blow it around a little bit and by 1 or 2 tomorrow every thing will be back to normal. this storm will be a memory. Sorry for the rant. I think we are all tougher than the media and government give us credit for.

    2. 1978 confirmed we are not that tough. Granted, it was a semi botched forecast, but still, people were stranded needlessly. Feels like ever since then, the gov’t has made good and sure it never happens again. This is why i firmly believe, in terms of impact on life, we will never have another storm like 1978 even if snowfall totals are higher.

    4. Its a nanny state and got worse after that storm years ago when the traffic was bad. Never thought I would see 2 days of school canceled with no snow 🙂

    1. Whats strange to me was the localized nature of the snow. I was under the impression most of the snow this morning and throughout the day would be light synoptic snow from the arctic front coming through

  190. OS, I think the prediction was for a lull this afternoon. What seems to be different so far is that I believe a little more snow fell today than was expected.

  191. Getting under that heavier band moving up from the south, snow has increased in intensity here again to a light to moderate at the start of that band,

  192. Some nice echos ready to come onshore in the Cape. That band down by Taunton has just been sitting there for the last hour.

  194. Oldsalty why is it strange, a lull was forecasted by all and it’s the second ban tonight that cranks say between 8-10 and goes all night, more later into the evening I think. Consider getting more today as bonus snow.

  195. Hi. Everyone! Lurking again. This just popped up on my FB feed from MEMA: The Governor has directed that all non-emergency employees in Executive Branch agencies be released at 3 p.m. on Thursday, January 2, 2014. Private sector employees are encouraged to do the same where possible.

      1. You are welcome, Vicki. I am very fortunate to be able to work from home if the driving isn’t good. Others are not so fortunate – I think they just want to be able to treat the roads.

        1. I have worked from home for over 30 yrs now and absolutely love it. I don’t envy anyone who has to drive in rush hour traffic during a storm.

        2. Oh and my daughter passed your info to her husband so he can let them know in his company. They are only about 6-7 employees so appreciated getting the word. Thanks again!

  196. Is it me …. or are the bands to the south starting to change their movement. This morning, they seemed like they moved SW to NE and now….. More S to N, if not a hint at SSE to NNW ????

  197. I have not watched the TV Mets for years – though I do follow a few of my favorites on Twitter as they generally tweet more detailed/timely information there. I can’t take the ridiculous graphics/music some of the stations (yes WHDH I am talking about you…) crank out – even with a moderate snow storm – total game show.

  200. Been going at a fairly good clip here in Andover all day. Just went out and measured 7 inches of super fluff.
    TA

    1. Wow! 7?? Maybe TK’s original thought about north shore into northeast MA and southern NH being jackpot. Thats a HUGE head start and the real stuff hasnt even started yet!

  201. As of 10:28 am obs. Logan so far has received 3.0″ so my bet is close to if not exceeding 6″ by sunset?

  203. I can confirm TJs obs…….6″ here in Groveland already……just drove from Peabody up 95 to Groveland and the temp went from 20 degrees to 9 degrees in a span of a few miles on 95….coastal front anyone? Visibility is under a quarter of a mile

  204. I’ve only need 25% of the salt trucks bc of the light nature of it, plus it’s been only light snow for most of the day, again just under or about an inch of snow so far

  206. Been crazy busy here today at work but just took a few minutes to stick my head outside and see what’s going on here in Norwell. Snow is coming at a steady light to moderate clip. Visibility is between 1/2 and 3/4 mile. About 2-3 inches on the ground.

    2. The storm in March we only got 7-8 inches here, and there were reports north of us at a foot an a half, 🙂

  210. North went to school and hasn’t cancelled tomorrow yet, can u imagine if they cancelled today? Good thing they didn’t lol

    2. Really because I think Framingham was out out of their mind having kids go today. And Framingham just cancelled tomorrow.

  211. Light and fluffy snow here in Quincy. Has been snowing all day and we are at 4inchs maybe a little more.

  212. Yes Keith I agree as its about the same in pembroke as I’m guessing about 3inches. It’s not like this heavy stuff rather like a mist of snow but sticking easily. I think this blog will light up like crazy when the real show starts as this is a nice little preview.

    1. Agreed. The plows and sanders have been at work all day here in the parking lot of the med center.

  213. Snow just picked up a bit here in Walpole. Its been snowing all day but very lightly, almost misty. Was about to see blades of grass a few mins ago, now all gone and snow covered 🙂 About 1.5″ on the grass outside the office, just measured. My coworkers thought i was nuts, lol

    1. About 8-10 miles due south of u, I got exactly 1 inch, still see grass blades here, still just sanding to this point, there’s just not enough snow to plow yet, prolly later this evening, BIG lull right over us w/ some filling in.

  214. 2 inches in Framingham. Very light now. Temp down to 9.4 with wind continuing to gust 3-9 mph NNE.

    Main roads are basically clear. Side roads are not and are not good when you get into the smaller, more winding side roads in N. Framingham. None of the roads have been touched with any form of treatment that I can tell.

    1. Glad you are home safely. Mac’s office closing at 3:00. They rarely let folks go early. Sadly, his day ends at 3:00 anyway since he starts at 5:30ish

    2. Ugh – with the predictions for many over 90 degree days I vote we just skip summer and keep the snow 😈

  221. Just checked again…snowing much harder now…close to a half inch more in the last 20 minutes.

  222. Just got the word that we are closing at 4. Off to my recording studio to create some phone greetings. I just love being “the voice” of the bank. 🙂

  224. looking at the radar. there is nothing on it for me, though i have had 4 inches of fluffy snow that i just shoveled and now its recovered with about a half inch of snow., snow is falling at a good clipp with wind…. My freind says they have 17 degrees for a temperature in north billerica i have a temperature of 8 right now and have not gotten above 12 today.

  226. Temp down to 8 in Westborough with about 2.3 inches of snow on the ground. A fine, light snow is currently falling with a light east wind.

    1. Nice. LSC probably on far northern extent of snowshield or is getting shadowed.

      Now, LSC may be in a good spot for Sunday night/Morning morning.

      1. Looking at the webcam up there, seems to be snowing a little bit, .01″ of precip in the bucket. It’s 0 degrees as well.

        Should definitely be a decent snowpack up there when I return.

  228. http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=OKX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=1&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

    NYC radar. Westward extension of moisture being advected in off the ocean. Can see this is happening at some altitude lower than the jet stream. There are the echoes moving SW to NE. But this moisture coming in from the ocean is moving SE to NW over Long Island. In fact, NYC is reporting freezing drizzle.

    2. Your town needs a full water ban and a Local State of Emergency enacted. It never does anything down there. 🙂 🙂

  230. To Captain… I read about your father above. Very sorry for your loss.

    I also realize some of you have lost loved ones recently (coastal, rainshine, maybe others) and if for some reason I missed sending you a condolence, please forgive me and accept it now. It’s easy to fall behind and miss some comments in the day-to-day.

    Weather… Can’t type much now, doing one round of snow removal, hope to be in about 4PM. Eventually I’ll catch up here and then update. Something tells me there will be great variation is snow amounts when this is all done later tomorrow.

    Please be safe everyone, no matter where you find yourself during this event.

    Catch you all in a while!

    1. Yes and ever so slowly turning with time. Perhaps to be moving in due east to west and then even later on, NE to SW ??

      A decent snow and the buoy out in Boston Harbor continues to see a temp rise, to 28.4F.

      I want to see what happens along the immediate coastline, perhaps only lasting a few hours, when that wind backs to 020 or 010, the temp freefalls at the buoy to the low-mid teens. I’m hoping its clobber city !

  234. Fine snow falling downtown. I am on the tenth flooor of a building facing the Charles and cannot see Cambridge now.

  235. NWS says they will be UPPING their snow totals with next statement around
    4PM.

    The last statement gave no clues as to whether or not they will expand blizzard warnings.

    We shall see.

    1. I am not surprised. The ocean is having more impact than anybody thought (you can tell how infrequently we get ocean-effect storms of this magnitude).

      Still not sure true blizzard criteria ever get met, but it’ll be nasty enough, warning or not. 🙂

      2. TK, Not surprised at the ocean impact. I was wondering if
        this would happen yesterday. 😀

        This is similar to an event I witnessed in the 60’s, although this
        one is even more potent. 😀

  236. I made it to NYC. No snow here no freezing drizzle either in lower manhattan,
    Drive down through western MA and CT was quiet with no snow falling south of Springfield. What a difference a few hundred miles make.

    1. About 1.5 in Wrentham, 1 inch in north Attleboro, just under an inch in Attleboro, and 2 inches in foxboro, and it’s not really snowing, we have a lull

    2. Im still at work Charlie in Walpole but closer to the Norwood line and ive been under that enhanced band of snow for a good 45 mins and probably just got half of the days total in that timespan. Just measured 2.75.”

  240. Im sitting at my desk and i heard this really weird noise. I went to the windows and it was a whiteout! Then when it cleared i realized the noise was a bunch of leafblowers! They crew was cleaning the walkways with leafblowers and all it was doing was making a mini whiteout and the snow was ending up back where it came from! Oh man, sometimes i wonder

    3. Same hear, all the guys that r supposed to be shoveling have back pack blowers today , easy easy clean up 🙂

  241. You yell snow storm , everybody goes what, huh!!! You yell nor’easter. We got a panic on our hands in the middle of January .

  243. Before I step outside into the fluff storm, I just want to say that the weather regime we have entered reminds me a whole lot of the 1970s, especially the temperature contrasts and unusual events (like the large-coverage ocean-effect event). We used to see stuff like this all the time back then. Those events are part of what hooked me on weather.

      1. Well, probably more, assuming the dryness of the air doesnt come in and eat away at the precip.

        Big impact though …if they had any chance of keeping major roads somewhat clean, I’d think with the drop to 16F, that just diminished significantly.

  246. Temp down to 7.5 and wind a bit gustier. Spanning 6-15 mph. I just went out and shoveled off what we have and it’s cold on the face.

  247. This is not storm related, but I have noticed that the average snowfall for December at Logan is 9.0″. Back in my day, the December average was 7.5″. I find it very interesting that while the December average has risen significantly (relatively speaking) the other winter months (January and February) average has remained pretty much the same (just about 13″ and 11″ respectively). Also November, March and April are the same as well (1.3″, 8.0″ and 2.0″ respectively).

    1. Sweet. Nice display. Thanks.
      It’s getting loaded up. Send that up here and combine it with Ocean effect
      and we have ourselves an old fashion snow storm. Oh wait, we been having that
      all day. SNOWMAGGEDN is upon us!!!

      😀 😀

  253. Just came from a round of snow removal… quite cold and wind seems to be picking up a bit. Temp at 6.8. Still piling up very fast but easiest snow ever to push around! Walked all around the driveway and yard and took about 20 measurements…. Went from 7″ on the low end up to 9″ on the high end. 8″ seems to be about a good estimate. I have about 1/2 and acre of yard with woods around 3 sides, set far back from the street, so its hard to get a consistent measurement, depending on which way the snow is blowing and how close I am to the trees and house.

    TJA

      1. A couple towns over, maybe 10 miles, but much closer to the coast… The radar has not backed off in this area all day, from where I am out to the northshore, although I think I’m on the edge… A few more miles west, and probably less.

    1. Free fall it is.

      Wouldn’t it be something if around 6 AM Logan has an obs
      of heavy snow and -2!!!!! I’ve NEVER seen that before, in fact
      this right now is about as cold as I have ever seen it with decent
      snows going on. 😀 😀

      2. My youngest was just saying that she didn’t remember not being able to play outside when it was snowing because it was too cold. Her son wants to go out but even my face got too cold too fast.

  255. Down to 13.6 here and snowing really hard. Some really big flakes in the mix. 😀

    Looking at 18Z NAM composite radar, it looks like the worst of it will be
    about 8PM to 6AM IF I am reading the displays properly. NAM NOT properly
    portraying what has been going on with Ocean Effect. Most of what it is showing
    is Synoptic snow. That is why I think totals come in WAY over forecast.
    I think someone gets 2 feet. We shall see.

    1. My only concern …..

      Beverly at 9F, has a dewpoint of 1F. That seems like a big difference. I think I would have like to see the coastal front hang on a little longer.

      1. IF we keep ANY component of the wind off of the water,
        the snow WILL NOT QUIT and I also think that the gap
        between temp and dew will close. We shall see. 😀

          1. It’s funny, no sooner did you post that then intensity has dropped off considerably. Go figure.

  258. Charlie, you crack me up. In the dry slot again.

    Boston sort of became Buffalo today (ocean instead of lake-effect). But this evening and night it’ll be very different from Buffalo as the coastal low impacts the region. From Quincy to Plymouth is where the jackpot will likely be.

    Stay safe everyone. And happy new year if I forgot to include that on a previous post.

    1. Agree. All down this way will be above boston for snowfall once tonight’s second punch comes through. It’s nice to be home.

    2. Was just outside. I made about 30 measurements.
      To the best of my ability, I came up with 5.5 inches.

      Still snowing decently here. 😀

        1. Couple towns in NE MA only need 2-4 more inches to hit those numbers. Im assuming they will far surpass that

  264. Unbelievable 5.5 degrees in Pelham, NH. It is hard to believe we are talking about a major snowstorm. When was the last time we had a storm this cold?

  265. Mac just arrived home. He said main roads are awful. He drives 16 to 30 through Watertown/Newton/Weston/Wayland. Once in Framingham, he said they were fine. Be safe everyone.

  266. Wow Iam right here in Reading ma. Northshore area and it is snowing moderate to heavily here. What if this storm was closer to the benchmark would it be historic due to high snow ratio? Or would the temperatute not be this cold?

    1. 10-15 additional snow is likely–NOT TOTAL! 😀 I knew the blizzard warning would eventually come.

  270. Snowing moderately – lightly here in Sudbury. About 5 inches (guessing) of snow. I used to hear years ago that it was too cold to snow. I guess that theory doesn’t work.

  271. And for anyone out there driving or just being out in the elements – stay safe and keep warm!

    1. Its gonna be tough with this type of storm. I know my miners are pretty close to accurate 99% of the time.

  273. 10″ here in Groveland and snowing like crazy…Georgetown is the town over so I dont think a foot is out of the question for them thus far

    1. Perhaps in the future, they can consider not having to do warnings by entire Counties. It looks silly to have Essex county in a blizzard warning, where the western part of the county is about the same north-south longitude as Boston. Same for County south of Boston.

      I’m sure the warnings are implied within those counties to be only near the immediate coastline … and then, leaving Boston out would look a little less strange.

  280. This, to me, easily is my favorite event so far this winter !!

    Precip moving about 2 or 3 different ways on the radar.

    You cant anticipate where the next intensifying snow burst may be (for instance, one just materialized just south of Boston)

    Coastal fronts, frigid air, ocean effect snow (the likes we havent seen in a while)

    1″ snow here ….. 8″ snow there …..

      2. He said he was going to patriots place. I just heard a report of 70 degree weather and canoeing in the bogs behind bass pro…..

  284. Keeping Boston and immediate north & south shores out of the Blizzard Warning makes sense to me just because of the nature of this particular storm and especially geography. Look at a map and the city of Boston is tucked in from the coastline compared to the rest of east coastal MA to the Cape.

    Just my 2c for what it’s worth. 😉

    1. Are you suggesting that Boston Harbor is going to slow down the winds?

      Doesn’t make sense to me.

  286. Interesting ….

    The coastal front is not retreating quickly over Boston Harbor …

    At 4:50 pm,

    16 miles out …. Still an ENE wind (050) and mildest temp of day at 28.9F.

  287. Tom, just heard Barry mention there was tropical moisture that was JUST offshore this morning. Remember those intense thin bands that looked like outer hurricane banding? Well, thats kinda what it was!

  289. Just got home in Sharon, average of 3″ so far and in a lull right now. Roads were OK. Only gripe i have, in a really cold storm like this, when the plows are scraping the pavement, it almost makes it worse. Its so cold the road flash freezes behind the plow and leaves a skating rink in its wake, much like a zambonie.

  290. Hadi, actually mixing and rain are quite close. Nantucket it’s been all rain thus far, and there’s mixing over Massachusetts Bay, as well as over the Outer Cape. That’s the rather shocking aspect of this storm: The extreme temperature differential.

    1. Which is a contributing factor to the lift.

      10,8 here and RAINING SNOW!!! I mean a fine snow with hardly any separation
      between flakes in the horizontal and in the vertical. Very interesting!!

      Too cold to snow. Bull Crap!! 😀

      1. You’re right. It snows in Nunavut, Canada, when it’s 0F or below so why wouldn’t it do the same here.

        By the way, it’s -10F in Quebec City. Lovely day for a marathon. … Ran up there in August and it was 74F – Quebecois passing out left and right because it was way too warm.

        1. Same for my wife’s relatives in Nova Scotia. It’ll be like 25C, around 77F and they are sweltering.

  293. What still confuses me ……

    I anticipated the best ocean effect (enhancement) to occur with echoes moving off the ocean from NE to SW and so far today, all the coastal snow has seemed to occur with echoes moving from S to N or a bit SSE to NNW.

    Maybe this will never happen, but I think it still might. One set of precip with the actual low moving from SW to NE, but at a lower altitude, ocean enhancement coming in from NE to SW.

    So, part of me thinks that 18-24 inch bullseye belongs over the South Shore ????

    1. The problem is, most places on the north shore already have a foot+
      Im with u, i think going forward, and once the bulk of the precip comes in, the south shore should get into some enhancement

  294. Tom, what concerns me is the arctic front. We are in the high 20’s and others are in the single digits. Is that front moving at all to the east? When do you expect it to be in our area?

    1. Blue Hill crashed about 1 hr ago …. so, I’d assume a temp crash in Hanover sometime btwn 6:30-8 pm.

      Isnt it nice to have the powdery snow falling through the trees, as opposed to the wet snow that sticks to the trees.

      I will never forget your post during NEMO, when you described the scary sounds of all the trees breaking in the woods beyond your house.

      Knock on wood, with the wind later tonight and tomorrow and the arctic temps following, I am so thankful that the trees are now weighed down with the wind coming !!!!

      3. I can confirm that temps here in Hingham have been in the low 20s since around 4:30 at the very least. All of the snow has been very fluffly.

    2. Yes ….. Maybe unstable enough (big temp difference btwn arctic air over milder ocean temp) for some thunder/lightning later tonight ????

    2. Its going to be interesting when the 2 precip areas overlap. I wonder if there’ll be different types of snowflakes falling from each ?? Its seemed, for the most part today, the ocean stuff has been mostly fine snow flakes.

  298. Just out of a meeting about media adopting owe else radars to better detec circulation and potential tornadoes. Can’t go through 9 million posts. Give me some awesome updates folks. All I got is boring. No snow yet in NYC and my wife says you can still see the grass above our coating of snow in Amherst.

    1. Hmmmm…..

      Temps crashed at Logan and Beverly around 3-4 pm, from mid 20s to low teens.

      North shore has seemed to have the best convergence thus far, but Boston and South Shore have received a few to several inches as well.

      The snow bands are hard to anticipate. You’ll get one strengthen without much warning.

      Lowlevel echoes still moving south to north or southeast to northwest near the coast.

      Higher level echoes moving SW to NE in interior New England.

  300. This snow event will be a great case study for the various aspects of meso to micro scale things that can have an influence on the outcome in different locations.

    3. Very happy to be home for this, can’t believe the heart of this thing is still to our south. All of this is due to this very anomalous air-mass in place. Unfortunately this air-mass won’t be sticking around to kick the next storm underneath us.

      Bring on the blizzard conditions!

  302. It’s coming down like crazy here in Hingham right now.. wind blowing pretty good too. I shoveled about 45 minutes ago and close to a inch has fallen since then.

  304. A question i have regards to ocean effect. Its relatively warm on the south shore and that warmer air is coming in from the ocean. The arctic front is very slow to move east. So how is the south shore suppose to pick up substantial ocean effect when the air temp over the ocean is warm and the arctic front is not moving fast enough over the ocean to create that temperature contrast?

    2. I’d feel better if TK chimed in, but I’ll try.

      There’s a subtle spin just above the surface heading east through the Appalachians.

      When that passes due south of us, it should help, for a few hours, to turn the echoes moving from NE to SW. This may also be reflective of winds just above us also blowing from NE to SW.

      That is the time, that the “faucet” of the Atlantic Ocean should be fully turned on to the south shore. Combine that with the possible arrival of the surface arctic air currently up in Boston, and there could be a few hours, either side of midnight, where the ocean effect bands could be extremely intense over the south shore. Multiple inches per hour for anyone under a band, could even be a flash of lightning.

  305. about 7 inches of snow here in billerica. weather service is saying an additonal 6-12 inches 😀 I have a feeling my 10+ on my snow maps is going to vertify :D,
    Though jackpot areas will be where i been thinking the entire time essex county…. thinking of goin skiing saturday night. 😀

    1. Oh by the way its 0 freakin degrees outside with a wind gusts up to 15. yeah it was brutal when i had to go back out and shovel the 3 inches that fell since the last time i shoveled and to start the car. to get my dad at billerica station.

    1. Well ….. Its so windy, we’ll never know.

      I’ll be staying up to watch the radar til around midnight. I have a feeling we’ll see several hrs of S+ later on. You’ll see strings of dark green echoes, with maybe a yellow, here and there, moving from NE to SW.

      24 inches, I dont know ….. I think a lot of the exposed areas to the wind wont have more than 4 inches, but those protected areas will have big drifts !!

      My deck is downwind of a NE wind of my roof and I’ve probably got 8 inches on it already. I’ll be interested to take a measurement there in the morning !!

  308. Ok – at Logan, temp was 7° in Sherborn at 5:15PM, the temp was 24° at Logan (Terminal A). Snow/wind is moderate. Have a picture, anyone have an email I may send it to so it can be posted via a link here?

  309. We’ve been in somewhat of a snowhole this entire storm. On the northern fringe of the snow area, but hopefully that will change soon. Only 3 inches thus far, with a temp of 4.4

  313. Tom your posts are just above and beyond and presented in such a great fashion. Thank you. It’s so weird being home for a snow storm watching the plows go back and forth past my house. It was special though as my son was out sledding during it and I always miss that.

    1. I am glad you are home, getting to enjoy time with your family !!

      Thanks and hopefully my posts have some accuracy to them. 🙂

      1. Yes Tom they do very much so. I’m looking forward to comparing the two towns as this moves forward. Your projected wind later on in marshfield is 38.

  315. Was it 48 hours ago we were looking at a possible OTS solution? And no chance whatsoever of a snow bomb!

  316. Did a couple measurements when taking trash out and at 8.9 and the meat and potatos is not even here

    1. Radar echos beginning to brighten over eastern Mass as this new batch of precip interacts, think the real storm has just begun.

  319. The record snowfall for this date (January 2) for Boston is 8.0″ set in 1904. It will be interesting if Logan comes close if not break today’s record. We will see. 🙂

    I bet Logan itself already has at least 6″ on the ground. Pretty sure most Boston neighborhoods have easily surpassed that by now.

  321. Went out at about 5:30 and came home about an hour later, and the temp had dropped from 26 to 16 and it’s still falling!

  323. Wow, has the radar filled in since we had dinner.

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

    7.3 degrees here and snowing. I honestly don’t think I have ever seen that before.

    Truly amazing.

    I want to see it below zero with heavy snow falling with the wind for a TRUE
    OLD FASHION Blizzard!!!!!!

    Here’s radar:

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

    2. You know, IF I’m not mistaken, the Ocean snow on the South shore caught up
      with Synoptic snow moving in from the SW. 😀

  329. Looking at the Wundermap and zooming in on local temps, etc you can see the front through the south shore. You can tell by temps, wind direction and intensity of the echoes. Right now to me it looks like it runs right down through Braintree, Holbrook, Brockton, etc. Pretty cool.

  330. Hey, it looks like it’s actually snowing in R.I. for the first time in like what, two seasons.

    Green echoes over the state for once instead of a donut hole.

  332. Ok, with this Brutally cold Arctic Air, what happens when the wind turns a bit
    on shore later?? Holy Snow Balls Batman!!!!

    1. Perhaps this is the answer from NWS at 7:07PM

      850 MB LOW CLOSES OFF AS IT TRACKS SOUTH OF NEW
      ENGLAND TONIGHT AND THE ASSOCD STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANSION OF SNOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OF A UNIQUE EVENT AS TREMENDOUS OCEAN ENHANCEMENT ASSOCD WITH VERY STEEP NEAR SUPER ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER THE OCEAN WILL BE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO THE HEAVY SNOW ACROSS EASTERN MA.
      THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH THE NE LOW LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN BANDS OF HEAVY SNOW ROTATING IN FROM THE EAST.

    1. I predicted that a few locales in eastern mass would achieve 20 inches. I think my snow totals are still underdone!

      1. 6.4 here and still coasting downward.

        I REALLY want to see it snowing like hell with the temperature Below Zero!!!

        1. Some of the reporting stations on the Wundermap are showing mid 20s still for my area but my trusty outdoor unit is reading at 15…

  337. OS, looking at the radar it seems like the stronger echoes are going to pass through southeastern mass and will miss northeastern mass , do you think the precipitation will pivit?> like from the SE to NW instead of now being SW to NE. It looks like northshore is missing the echoes now on the radar, I Know we got a lot of snow already on the northshore but i guess i am greedy for snow 🙂

  340. Retrac, I am at 9 and Taunton is at 30 and they are less than 15 miles away if that. This is crazy.

  345. It’s 4 in Newton and supposed to be -7 or -8 tomorrow and then I think we are supposed to be at 50 on Monday.

  347. It is now down to 2.2.

    I never rooted for this kind of cold before.

    I guess I just want to say that it can snow for real at 0.

  351. You know it’s cold when salt hardly works. Daniel Gabriel Fahrenheit’s zero point on the scale (-18C) is essentially the temperature at which salt no longer works.

    It’ll be a rough day on the roads tomorrow as a result, regardless of how much is plowed. Roads will remain icy and covered.

    I miss the days of Shelby Scott, who would drive around in any storm, including the April Fool’s blizzard (still my all-time favorite storm).

  353. Monday will feel like mid July: 50F with no wind chill (not applicable with temps above 48F) compared to -5F tomorrow night with a wind chill index of, say, -15F. It’s the one aspect of this winter I could do without – the roller-coaster ride – as my cough has been persistent for weeks. I think the up and down, snow then rain then cold, has contributed.

  354. I have updated the blog.
    Pardon if the discussion looks a little “lazy”.
    I’ve been running myself into the ground today, or is that into the snow? 😉

  355. Down to 5.5 here and snowing like crazy!!

    Honestly, I have NEVER ever seen this before!!!

    This is nuts!

  356. North shore “may” not get into this stuff. Not sure, but not looking like
    it. They got theirs already. Our turn!! 😀

  359. Picked up a quick inch of snow in the last hr, just measured and got about 4 inches, it’s drifting, so u have to be careful and take multiple measurements, foxboro is at 4.5 inches and Wrentham also is at 4 inches, ill be up late tonight reporting 🙂

  360. I’m already thinking warmup and rain in 48 hrs, from reporting this, hospitals and plow drivers can plan on not having to pay money to actually remove the snow, and just let it melt, from Sun am to Mon evening temps will be above freezing with rain, ok back to the storm 🙂

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