Weekend Update

93 Comments

7:46AM

A few changes being made to the previous forecast, but nothing major. Here’s a summary of what is coming and a short update, with a longer post later today for the week upcoming.

High pressure slides east of New England today as low pressure travels north northeastward into the Upper Ohio Valley. A southerly wind will bring the chance of some light rain later today along with milder air, but it may be cold enough at the surface in the remote northwestern suburbs of Boston for a period of freezing rain first. Not much precipitation is expected, however, so any problems will be very limited.

Monday, the low pressure area will track into eastern Canada, intensifying and whipping a strong cold front eastward across southern New England. With mild air in place a period of rain showers can be expected, but by the end of the day it will be dry and turning colder. A secondary Arctic boundary will cross the region Monday night with a chance of snow showers and snow squalls, and a strong westerly flow will push an Arctic air mass right into the region Tuesday, a much colder day than Monday.

High pressure will try to rebuild over the region Wednesday and Thursday as the core of the coldest air moves out of the region. A weak weather system is expected to push through the region early Friday but it looks like it will be weakening and transferring energy off the Mid Atlantic Coast with fair weather later Friday and Saturday. Confidence on the late week portion of the forecast is low.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Spotty light rain afternoon, may freeze on surfaces some inland areas. Highs 35-40. Wind SE to S 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Patchy fog. Chance of rain showers. Temperatures rising into the 40s. Wind S 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY: Mostly cloudy with passing rain showers through early aftermppm, then clearing except clouds lingering southeastern MA and RI. Highs around 50 in the morning, dropping to the 30s during the afternoon. Wind S 15-25 MPH in the morning shifting to W midday and afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT:  Partly cloudy with a chance of snow showers and possible snow squalls. Lows 10-15 except 15-20 South Coast. Wind W 15-30 MPH with higher gusts.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy to mostly sunny. Isolated snow showers. Highs 15-20. Wind W 15-30 MPH and gusty with wind chills to zero or below.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 0-10. Highs 30-40.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers at night. Lows 10-20. Highs 35-45.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers morning. Clearing afternoon. Lows 20-30. High 30-40.

SATURDAY: Partly cloudy. Lows 15-25. Highs 30-40.

93 thoughts on “Weekend Update”

  1. Thanks TK !

    Its nice to have a week coming with no big storms, to allow everyone to get back into the swing of things.

  4. Not much happening.
    We shall see how much snow goes tomorrow.

    After the brief Arctic invasion, it looks like a pretty long
    stretch of milder weather with the passage of a few Lakes Cutters.

    I think we’re going to have to wait a couple of weeks to get back
    to real Winter.

    Hope I’m dead wrong.

  6. It is nice Tom, a nice break for a couple weeks would be nice, and it appears we r gonna have a break, maybe till mid Jan, have a good day everyone

  7. http://search.yahoo.com/r/_ylt=A0oG7jngbslSGHMABWlXNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTEzbTNzajZ1BHNlYwNzcgRwb3MDMgRjb2xvA2FjMgR2dGlkA1NNRTI4OF8x/SIG=13ag4h05k/EXP=1388961632/**http%3a//www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao_index_ensm.shtml

    http://search.yahoo.com/r/_ylt=A0oG7jgBb8lSNicATM1XNyoA;_ylu=X3oDMTEzaTUyNDBtBHNlYwNzcgRwb3MDMQRjb2xvA2FjMgR2dGlkA1NNRTI4OF8x/SIG=133mdrr4a/EXP=1388961665/**http%3a//www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/new.pna_index_ensm.html

    Will have to watch these trends. If the arctic oscillation trends negative, while the PNA trends positive around or after January 16th, then after about 10-14 days, some more very cold weather should be back.

    I’m pretty sure its been the combination of these 2 that have delivered the cold and snow we’ve seen this winter without the presence of any kind of high latitude blocking in northeast Canada/Greenland.

    Its been 3 months without any real blocking (negative NAO). I just hope it doesnt decide to show up in Spring 🙁 But, odds wise, it seems to me, it probably will given its absence currently.

    1. ooooops, if the links above are in error, I apologize. I’m working off an old computer that my wife has been working on. She’s done a nice job getting it to work, but, I’m not used to copying links off of it.

  8. Another thought …..

    Just see that freezing rain advisories have been posted in CT ….. NYC is reporting freezing rain at 31F …..our dewpoints are soooooo low and there’s not this tremendous southerly surge (today anyway).

    There is some moisture down around NJ ……

    It just rather rapidly turned cloudy here in Marshfield

    I just think temps may underperform today, until the wind picks up a bit more overnight. Perhaps some freezing rain advisories will be expanded further eastward later on this afternoon ????????

    1. Worcester is up to 29, however the dew point is 13.

      This is the area of moisture we need to worry about moving in while
      it’s still cold enough.

      http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=OKX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

  9. The “break” will be relative, and shorter lived than it appears.

    First we have a very strong Arctic air mass coming down Monday night into Wednesday.

    Maybe a bout of wintry weather early Friday, and again Sunday.

    The “mild” air is really just back to near normal, maybe above a few times into mid January.

    Some incredibly cold air is coming via cross-polar flow from Siberia into the Northern Territories of Canada in the next several days and there are signs of another Arctic outbreak from the Plains and Midwest to East shortly after mid month.

    BTW CPC’s 6-10 & 10-14 from yesterday are computer-generated and complete hogwash.

    1. TK, how does Sunday look? I have a cord of wood being delivered and would like some dry weather so I can get it stacked and covered.

      1. That may be one of the unsettled days but it doesn’t look like a big event at this point. We’re going to be near a stretched out front between trough that will be back to the west and ridge off the Southeast Coast (similar to the pattern we seem to be in between the cold outbreaks).

  10. Freezing rain in New York caused a plane with 35 on board to skid off the runway at JFK. No injuries reported.

  13. if im not mistaking the clouds are moving from the northwest right now which does not make sense, anyone else seeing this.

  15. All the surface winds down around SE NY State and coastal NJ are light NORTHERLY. NYC dropped to 30F. Wonder what that is all about ?????

    Logan is at 34F, but dewpoint is 18F.

  18. 36.1 with 17 DP. Kids took a ride to Humarock and Central street past Atlantic is unpassable. They didn’t think there was home damage as much as street damage

  19. Earlier I was thinking alot of the snow would be gone by tomorrow night but now I’m not quite sure about down here. There is quite a bit of snow down here and even though we could climb into the 50s tomorrow it is very short lived, and with limited rain fall I can’t see it going that fast.

  21. Just noticed the NWS point forecast has dropped Monday’s max temp due to today’s temperature trends. Boston went from 55 to 52. Snow does not start melting till the wet bulb goes above freezing.

      1. Combination of the air temperature and dew point temperature. It’s the temperature where the air temperature can cool if it became saturated. That is the process known as evaporational cooling. With the case of a snowpack the air around it is close to the wet bulb.

        1. Very good explanation. And you’re right about snow melt being more complex than it just warming up and the ice crystals melting.

  24. Another thing the clouds and mist have done in SE Mass is to make the air cold and damp and thick and the wind is temporarily stopping. Lots of calm wind reports at 2pm.

    1. I’ve got about 4.5 inches of snow on the ground, it’s compacted and is actually good for making snowballs. It’s still misting down here, cloudy temp is 38.4 degrees, I think we stay between 35-40 degrees during the evening, but rising into the 40’s by morning, I’m thinking showers moving in this evening.

      1. A day like this can transform powder into good snowball snow. Up here though we are still powder and we’re settled from 11 inches from the storm down to about 6 or 7. Very little melting today, other than on pavement exposed to the sun.

  26. Coldest early part of winter in parts of southern Canada and the northern US in 88 years.

    When I said we were entering a new regime, I was not kidding. This will become more the rule than the exception during the next 10 to 30 years.

      1. Tk do you think your snowfall winter prediction will fall short. If I’m right I believe you posted just recently that this stormy pattern wiil stay in place. If this is so we could go above average for snow very easily. I think this will happen. Any thoughts?

        1. For Boston, my snowfall prediction is in jeopardy, unless they shut off early, really early.

          But what I did recently post was despite the somewhat active pattern, the long-term dry regime remains intact.

          I had to re-examine my winter predictions over the past couple weeks, as they are falling victim to the same uncertainty of the AO status that J. Cohen referred to when he was on WCVB.

          For now, we remain in the same pattern. I feel we may quiet down as we get into February this year. Not sure about the end of winter just yet.

          1. I had posed a question to you on a previous blog recently but I think you missed it regarding dry pattern as I’m somewhat confused by this so here I go. I’ll go with the Wednesday rainstorm day before thanksgiving, since than we have been getting many storms of both rain/snow storms. So not saying that were drought free but my big question is how can we call this a dry pattern? With storm after storm of different liquid precipitation how is this considered dry. Dry pattern in my view is no liquid precipitation of any kind.

      2. The caveat is that the destruction of our earth by man has to now be entered into the equation. I don’t believe there is any way to do that.

      1. I’m hearing snow showers with no accumulation would you agree. And than possibly a snow event for Sunday but I think it warms up some by the weekend.

        1. Agree. Dalton far more likely to throw a pick or screw
          it up some other way. Luck can do some damage.

          Should be fun.

  30. US National Weather Service Boston MA
    Here’s a look at 3 pm temperatures and where the greatest potential of freezing rain exists through this evening. Note that there is also the possibility of some icing where temperatures are just above freezing, since road surfaces can be a few degrees colder.

    Even though any icing will be light, it will be enough to cause slippery travel. Be alert if you will be driving!

    https://scontent-a-iad.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/1560768_556791087748600_165791122_n.jpg

  34. cool, patriots vs colts.

    now. wondering if any of you have ever had a snake or lizard as a pet, i have had land hermit crabs for 14 years, I have had major sucess with land hermit crabs 1 hermit crab lasted for 8.5 years and got as large the palm of my hand. ad 6 that lasted more than 5 years. and 6 that lasted 2 to 5 years, i had 2 that did not hit the 2 year mark because of my cousin i won’t get into that. but i want to try something new. Im thinking of a snake or lizard. non poisionious of course, moms rule no eractnids, bugs etc no rodents. nor do i want a rodent. wondering if any of you have had experiance with snakes and lizzards and what i should try.

    2. Matt, a friend of mine has been breeding geikos for over 10 years, all different species. They’re easy to care for but are VERY sensitive to temperature. He’s lost a few due to losing power during storms so id recommend a generator, lol. They eat crickets, the same thing as most small snakes. IMO, i wouldnt go anywhere near a snake. The thought of one in my house while im sleeping creeps me out

  35. I was just looking over the holidays for 2014 and day light savings time is march 9th, not that far off.

  36. John, to answer your question above: A dry pattern is a pattern in which precipitation is below the climate average over a period of time (which varies depending on how much time you are talking about).

    Using Boston as my main example, the precipitation for 2013 ended up about 3 inches below normal, thanks to a slightly above average amounts of precipitation in December, and the 10+ inches that fell in June. However, if you take July through November, the precipitation was extremely deficient, averaging nearly 8 inches below the climate average. That is a long-term dry pattern, and the near to slightly above normal amount that fell in December is not nearly enough in neither amount nor duration to call it an end to the long term dryness.

    The National Drought Monitor’s latest report released just 3 days ago, including data through December 31, continues to classify eastern MA in “moderate drought”, and they are absolutely correct in this assessment. it will take several months of near to above normal precipitation consistently to break the drought. We’re off to a good start in January, but we’re only 5 days in, and it looks like, despite CPC’s outlook for the next 14 days, we’ll be running drier than normal from here to the middle of the month. We’re not looking good to break the drought any time soon.

  37. North , during the storm my car thermometer recorded 4 below at around 3:00 am in the Lexi ton Bedford area. I have found it to be fairly accurate.

  39. Wankum saying it will be 50 at 9am tomorrow but the cold coming at the end of the day is the bigger story. He also is saying more rain than I thought 1/2 inch to an inch.

    1. I think the last few hrs of dewpoints in the low-mid 30s have compacted the snow nicely.

      Now the next 12-18 hrs of upper 30s moving towards near 50F tomorrow morning is going to melt quite a bit.

      I think drifts and snow piles should be smaller, but make it though, but there’ll also be some bare areas as well.

      1. Makes sense Tom but hard to believe that it goes that quick with the 50s just in the first half of day. I don’t need to tell you there is a ton of snow down here. There still plowing throughout pembroke center trying to clean it up.

  41. And in other parts of the country weather continues to be very odd. Atlantas high tomorrow will be in the 20s with a night temp of 8. Similar on Tuesday except low will be in teens. San Francisco is having the driest winter (their rainy season) in 40 years.

  42. Much colder today than I expected. Damp chill, which to me often feels colder than the drier very cold air we’ve been experiencing. Also this morning was colder than expected. I think it remained in the 20s until late morning. This makes me think that tomorrow’s high may not be 50 after all. We’ll see.

    I think the Patriots got what they wished for: A team with really porous defense. I don’t think the Colts will pose much of a problem at Foxboro. On the other hand, the Broncos lucked out. The Chargers are not very good, really lucked into the playoffs and faced a listless team today with a sometimes dreadful QB and a, in my view, always sub-par coach. Lewis is on my short list of rather poor coaches without creativity: Jim Schwartz, Lovie Smith, Norv Turner, among others.

  43. Sf continues to impress me. Nice win for a warm weather team in those conditions. Should be a good game against Carolina.

  45. Temps continue to rise, and since 6pm have risen over 2 degrees, 36.7 degrees, down to about 4 inches.

  47. 2014 bold weather predictions:

    2014 bold weather predictions
    JimmyJames says:
    January 1, 2014 at 6:56 AM
    January 1st now time to make the bold weather predictions for 2014. I would love to hear what all of your predictions are and then look back and see how many actually happened.
    Here are mine
    2-3 snowfalls with widespread double digit snowfalls before this winter is over.
    8 to 12 months with above normal temps
    Precipitation totals for the year below normal
    Spring slightly above normal temps
    Summer will be warmer than normal with above normal 90 degree days. I am thinking 20 degree days
    2-3 widespread severe thunderstorm days during the summer
    No hurricanes or tropical storm making landfall in SNE but a more active hurricane season with more named storms
    Fall will have near normal temperatures
    First widespread accumulating snow in November
    White Christmas
    Tom says:
    January 1, 2014 at 7:59 AM
    And here comes 2014′s first forecast prediction inaccuracies …….
    1st substantial, prolonged negative NAO phase arrives in March with spring nowhere in sight during March.
    Logan hits 98F near the summer solstice and 101F during the 3rd week of July.
    Mauna loa co2 readings hit 403 ppm in late March/early April.
    Accuweather replaces 45 day weather forecast with 90 day forecast.
    Texas gets hit with hurricane.
    1st measurable snow next cold season at Logan ….. Dec 14, 2014.
    14 days > 90F at Logan.

    rainshine says:
    January 1, 2014 at 3:28 PM
    The rest of the winter we will see more snow and more cold temps. I see at least another big snowstorm or 2 before the spring. There will be some mild days here and there but with rain – not much sun when it’s mild- I don’t see a January thaw.
    The spring will be wet and on the cool side; but by the end of the spring it will start to get warmer.
    The summer will have many hot days – I agree w/you on many 90+ days; I just can’t guess on how many. There will be a lot of Severe Thunderstorms watches/warnings and even 1 or 2 Tornado watches/warnings. I am not sure if the draught will be relieved – perhaps with all the winter’s snows and a wet spring, I can’t say.
    The fall will start out warm and won’t cool off sufficiently ’til mid-Oct. I do see a tropical storm in the late summer/early fall but no hurricanes for New England. I will not take a guess on the hurricane season in general for the whole country.
    Next winter I see a lot of snow but not as cold as this winter has been so far.

    Old Salty says:
    January 1, 2014 at 11:32 AM
    I’ll make one prediction
    A very Hot Summer.
    90+ days in Boston 20+
    January 3, 2014 at 6:40 PM
    In addition to my hot Summer forecast with 20+ days over 90 at Logan, you can add a very active tropical season with and least one hit for us. Can’t say if it would be a hurricane or Tropical storm, but one hit.
    North says:
    January 5, 2014 at 10:01 PM
    January – Starts off very cold gets mild than cold again. Very stormy end of the month adding to the snow totals.
    February – Continues cold but on the dry side. There will be one greater than 12in storm in Boston around Feb 6-11.
    March – Finally starts to be near average to slighty above temp wise with drier than normal precip wise. final bout of snow in Boston will be around March 10th.
    April – Above average temps beginning of the month returning back to average or slightly below end of month. Precip continues drier than normal.
    May/June – Wet and cool. Starts to dry out and warm toward the end of June. There will be some flooding during this time.
    July/August – Hot and humid July into early August with closer to average precip. There will be a land falling storm in the region toward the end of August.
    Sept/October – Mild with normal precip. Cools off in late October to below normal.
    November/December – Below average temps with near to above average precip especially later in the period. First inch and maybe more of snow comes around Nov. 10th.

    Matt
    year 2014 predictions.
    january. Periods of cold, average snowfall,
    Febuary. seasonal temperatures with near average snowfall.
    march. cold near normal snowfall.
    april: cool and wet.
    may: seasonal temperatures, wet
    june. Hot above normal temperatures below normal rainfall.
    july. hot above normal temperatures below normal rainfall.
    august. Humid, normal temperatures, tropical
    september. humid above normal temperatures, normal precipitation
    october. dry and cool
    novemember. wet and seasonal
    december dry and seasonal.
    expect a few name storms to hit the coastal US. expect a near normal to below
    normal snowfall
    periods of below normal temperatures through april.
    periods of above normal temperatures june through july and then again in
    septemember. Exptect a wet spring
    expect a cool and crisp fall.

    John says:
    January 3, 2014 at 10:26 PM
    Two more big snow events with double digit snowfall and several smaller scale events that brings the snow to way above average for snowfall. No snow in march this year after a big miss brings a big rain along the eastern coast. Early and nice spring with blooms coming early and a very warm marathon Monday. Wet first half of may and than we get into a dry pattern that will run throughout the summer. Hot and dry summer with 3 heat waves and most days running in the 80s. 16 90 degree days. First heat wave Memorial Day weekend. Above average temps for the fall and really nice weather. No snow till the beginning of January 2015 and that will be below average for snow. All a guess.
    Also I forgot to add that the rest of this winter will stay cold after some sort of mini January thaw.
    Woods Hill Weather says:
    January 3, 2014 at 6:16 PM
    We’ll have an ocean-enhanced snow event on January 2 with astoundingly cold temperatures coming into Boston and over 20 inches of snow in parts of Essex County. Oh wait, that already happened…
    *Cold and drier than normal overall, but the same general pattern continuing for the winter remaining.
    *Spring starts as one of the coldest on record but ends with some record heat. Dry, increasing drought.
    *Final measurable snow: March 20.
    *Final flakes of snow: April 4.
    *Hot & dry June & July. Drought worsens.

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