The Week Ahead

292 Comments

8:25PM

Another week of changing weather starts with a transition from mild rain showers to drying with cold air arriving Monday, as low pressure tracks northeastward into eastern  Canada and its trailing cold front sweeps eastward across New England. A secondary cold front will come through the region Monday night with potential snow showers/squalls. Regardless of any snow showers, the front will introduce another Arctic air mass which will bring very cold and windy weather to the region Tuesday into  Wednesday (though it will not be as harsh Wednesday afternoon). High pressure holds over the region into Thursday, which will be a more tranquil day. A weak low pressure system is expected to bring light precipitation to the region  Friday. Seasonable to mild air is expected next weekend as we find ourselves between a high pressure ridge off the US East Coast and a trough of low pressure in the US Midwest. A frontal system in the region means that at some clouds and precipitation may take place, favoring Sunday at this early stage.

Forecast for southeastern New England (RI, eastern MA, and southern NH)…

OVERNIGHT: Cloudy with patchy fog and spotty light rain, with some icing possible early in north central MA and interior southern NH. Temperatures rising to 40-50, coolest well northwest of Boston, mildest South Coast. Wind SE up to 15 MPH.

MONDAY: Cloudy with rain showers likely through mid afternoon, ending west to east with clearing approaching from the west late afternoon (sun may show before it sets especially west and northwest of Boston). Highs around 50 in the morning, then temperatures falling through the 40s into the 30s during the afternoon. Wind S 10-20 MPH and gusty in the morning, shifting to W 15-25 MPH and gusty in the afternoon.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with scattered snow showers and isolated snow squalls. Lows 10-15 except 15-20 South Coast. Wind W to NW 15-25 MPH with gusts over 30 MPH. Wind chills falling to around zero.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny to partly cloudy with isolated snow showers. Highs 15-20. Wind WNW 15-25 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY: Sunny. Lows 0-10. Highs 20-30.

THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Lows 5-15. Highs 30-40.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of light snow/mix/rain. Lows 20-30. Highs 30-40.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Lows 20-30. Highs 35-45.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-35. Highs 35-45.

292 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  3. vicki, john and ace. thanks on your opionion of snakes and lizards. there is no problem of being petrified of snakes everyone is petrified of something. I hate rodents. though my cat helped me with that lol, I also know of the power outage concern with any animal so i actually have a few battery operated heaters. I used these for my hermit crabs when i had them around. last one past away in november so my tank has been empty since and want to fill it. Anyone else have any experiance with snakes and lizards.

        1. You are right. We have been through camelions, various types of hamsters, hermit crabs, multiple parakeets, canaries, tropical fish, rabbits, cats, dogs and four horses. And I can honestly say I believe its as much for the parents as the kids

    3. I have a way with animals not much scares me. even the mom black bear up in upstate new york that was within 15 feet of me i actually thought it was cool, my mom thought other wise. 😉 i also held a 15 long snake that was as thick as my leg. oh also held a teranchela

      1. if you look on my facebook i have a cat named simba. we also have a 60 gallon freshwather tank

        1. My wife really needs to move the fish to a bigger tank other than the counter one. Just not sure how to go about it.

          1. we have an orange tabby. male cat, has a great personality. lets you hold and pet him, lets you pet his belly sleeps with either my younger brother or me, still plays alot with toys and stuff and is 2 years old. thats only with my mom,dad, chris and ben. when other people come he usually hides under my bed, though comes out sometimes depending on the person never has scratched people or bit.

  5. Thanks TK !

    Good, no …. great weekend of football !

    Back to work tomorrow !

    Have a list of questions ready for my 6th graders to see what they have retained after 16 days off ….. We’ll see what happens. 🙂 🙂

    Onward to June 13th. 🙂

  8. Look at those isobars in the mid west. Lots of wind and coming straight from the north all the way into Canada.

  9. Showers r moving in from the south, there’s a little fog here, though not very dense, temp is 35.1 degrees

  10. Since we’ve been doing predictions this week, here are mine for the NFL next weekend.

    Saturday games:

    Seattle 41
    New Orleans 38

    New England 38
    Indianapolis 14

    Sunday games:

    San Francisco 31
    Carolina 21

    San Diego 24
    Denver 21
    in OT

  12. Ok here are my 2014 predictions:

    January – Starts off very cold 🙂 gets mild than cold again. Very stormy end of the month adding to the snow totals.
    February – Continues cold but on the dry side. There will be one greater than 12in storm in Boston around Feb 6-11.
    March – Finally starts to be near average to slighty above temp wise with drier than normal precip wise. final bout of snow in Boston will be around March 10th.
    April – Above average temps beginning of the month returning back to average or slightly below end of month. Precip continues drier than normal.
    May/June – Wet and cool. Starts to dry out and warm toward the end of June. There will be some flooding during this time.
    July/August – Hot and humid July into early August with closer to average precip. There will be a land falling storm in the region toward the end of August.
    Sept/October – Mild with normal precip. Cools off in late October to below normal.
    November/December – Below average temps with near to above average precip especially later in the period. First inch and maybe more of snow comes around Nov. 10th.

  13. Someone on the previous blog said they had no worries playing the colts. In theory I agree but it’s the playoffs so you have to be ready. Pats defense is not very good IMO so colts will put up more than 13 points TK. Also completley disagree on Denver score. No way San Diego keeps pace with them. Maybe you all are hoping they lose so you don’t have to at them.

    3. I hope Denver beats the chargers, but I think the chargers pull the upset IMO , that would be the BIGGEST upset if it happened

    5. Denver beats San Diego on paper.
      But paper doesn’t play football.
      San Diego beat them once and they can do it again.

      And my predictions have nothing to do with what I think will help her hurt the Patriots. They are just predictions. 🙂

      In addition, if the Pats defense is not very good, the NFL must have crappy defense overall, since during the regular season only 9 teams gave up fewer points while 22 gave up more. 🙂

      And I agree with you about the Colts putting up more than 13 points. That’s why I have them with 14. 🙂

    7. hadi look at the stats for our defense our defense reminds me so much of the early 2000s. you can say all you want but the patriots defense has pulled togeather through injuries, and have kept some of the best offenses in the league in cheeck. good games do not always end out as being shoot outs by the QBs but how smart they are with the ball. manning chokes 75 percent of the time in the big games just like last year. chargers defense is under rated they are honestly one of the better defenses. honestly if denver gets kicked out of the playoffs it is better for the patriots defense as they will not have to deal with better running attacks, though i have to say, our running attack is dam good. as well as our passing game. Blount is a beast and edelmen just needed the chance to show how good he was, of course i bet someone that edelemen was going to have a big year and amondola was not going to be as good as edelemen but of course he says no i did not. should have written it on paper 😉

  15. It’s the playoffs. Upsets are always possible as they are during the regular season. You have to take every opponent very seriously since it’s win or go home. I think the Pats ended up with about the best situation they could hope for, but winning in the NFL playoffs is always tough because all opponents have the do or die mentality.

    The Pats have been coached to an unbelievable 12-4 season. In fact, 10-6 would have been satisfactory given the injuries and crop of newbies. At times, I have found some of the personnel moves incomprehensible. Still they win. There are several reasons for this, but just one of them is that they have an incredible front office and coaching staff all of whom are on the same page. Sometimes this asset is underestimated and under-valued.

    1. I agree the pats have been short if terrific this year. I just think people get ahead of themselves. TK yea statically they have been decent for points against points allowed.

      I wish you all the best of luck this weekend. I am back to work today for the first time in over 3 months!! Very excited.

  19. Has anyone caught a glimpse at the 0Z GFS …….

    Some of that Siberian cold, crossing the Pole and, in this particular run, is aimed at the Northeast USA. (I believe this is what TK was alluding to yesterday)

    It could be a very interesting (cold) end to the month.

  20. Good morning all – it is froggy in sherborn, though I don’t think the amphibians will be out today.

    1. Captain I am laughing out loud. My grandson announced it is froggy this morning – first thing he said to me as he knows my interest in what’s happening outside.

  21. Northern Western Europe has experienced one of the warmest winters (thus far) on record. Almost no frost whatsoever in countries like Holland, Belgium, England, Ireland. Even Germany has had virtually no sub-freezing nights. And Eastern Europe, including Western Russia, has been well above normal in terms of temperature. That pattern looks like it will continue for the foreseeable future.

    The “polar vortex” has made it to the main headline on BBC World Service. Of course, they make it seem like a polar vortex is a once-in-a-lifetime event, rather than something that occurs every year but usually not this far south and with this much intensity (into the Continental 48; actually most the northern middle of our nation – we get a glancing blow).

    Hadi, I was the one who suggested the Colts would not pose much of a problem for the Patriots. I may be completely wrong, but I think that the one thing the Patriots can handle are teams with poor defense, regardless of how good the opposing team’s QB and offense are. This is because the Patriots do have a very reasonable defense, and excellent schemes for QBs like Luck, Manning, Flacco. Less so for guys like Newton. We’ll see. I had also mentioned that the Broncos lucked out with getting to face the Chargers. Yes, they lost to them a few weeks ago. But, that ain’t going to happen twice. The Chargers are really not very good, and are very fortunate to be in the position they are.

    1. i said it as well. thought he was referring to me lol. patriots defense is towards the top when it comes to big plays and passing. and the running game people forget we are pretty descent on those 3 down sitiuations

  22. I put the bold weather predictions I have captured at the end of the weekend forecast. Placing them here might involve a lot of scrolling for some individuals so I figured that was a better place. I can also put them here if I get an overwhelming request 🙂

    TK – please feel free to remove the post if it takes up too much room as well.

    Please let me know if I missed anyone

    1. No thanks…after I found this 🙂

      “Little Christmas is also called Women’s Christmas (Irish: Nollaig na mBan), and sometimes Women’s Little Christmas. The tradition, still very strong in Cork and Kerry is so called because of the Irish men taking on all the household duties for the day.Most women hold parties or go out to celebrate the day with their friends, sisters, mothers, and aunts. Bars and restaurants serve mostly women and girls on this night. Children often buy presents for their mothers and grandmothers.”

  25. Could be a tough ride home as everything will become a sheet of ice. Sanders will be out in full force

  27. I have to admit I am surprised by the amount of melting where I am. Guessing the fog is accelerating this. Roof is about bare so that makes me happy.

  28. When I posted lastnight about the snow melting I did not even consider the fog. Fog will just eat through any snow.

  29. Watching the fog literally roll by is fascinating. Daughter in Uxbridge said,while driving, she’d go into a thick patch of fog where visibility was zero and then it was as if she drove through a wall and she would be totally in the clear.

      1. Always makes me think of the classic horror film The Fog…not to be confused with the awful remake years ago. John Carpenter did it right.

      2. I was surprised when daughter in Framingham said you could not see on our main streets either. Mesmerizing is a perfect description, Sue!

      1. I heard one of the mets talking about it lastnight. Could be a little bit more than snow showers but on the light side during Friday day.

  31. Three water main breaks in Framingham so far this morning. I don’t recall hearing of any (or perhaps there have been a few) water main breaks in the years we have been here.

  32. Good morning, went to bed with 3.5 inches on ground, woke up to nothing in my measuring area, and it’s just patchy snow now w/ lots of grassy spots, u were right tk, the snow will not last hear as it was very light and fluffy, this weekend look mild but cloudy, out and about 🙂

  35. 52.3 with a 52 DP and wind gusting to mid teens. 0.27 rain

    The Sudbury river is rising nicely. I know it has a ways to go and can drop as fast as it rises but it’s nice to see.

  36. Had to get to Wellesley this morning. Very very foggy in places.
    Back in the office. Driving back through Wellesely, Needham, Newton, Brookline
    then Boston. Seeing bare patches all over. Snow cover extremely thin. It’s disappearing before our eyes. Temp was up to 56.

  38. After some ups and downs, it looks like a more seasonable and even slightly above average temp wise to finish the week, along with what appears to be some showers

    1. Yup, same here down the street. What time does the flash freeze happen you think. Won’t be a good travel night.

      1. Not sure there will be a flash freeze. It may cool off gradually
        enough to allow sufficient drying. We shall see. We’ll have to monitor temperature observations later.

  41. I’m surprised by the lack of snow squalls on the back end of the cold front moving in. Looks like there will be little or no snow, even in the Berkshires.

    Not surprised by the vanishing snow act. It doesn’t take much to have virtually all the snow disappear. Boston is not Moscow or Quebec City. Rain, fog, and 50s will do the trick every time, and in a jiffy. This is why I think that some of the snow removal on Friday (I do not mean the plowing of the streets) was a waste of money. Bulldozers and trucks were literally removing snow from snowbanks on the sides of roads. What’s the point in doing that? So long as the sidewalks were easily passable, which they were. If they had left those snowbanks alone, they’d mostly be gone or just remnants of slush by now.

    1. Totally and completely agree, but then they don’t have anyone from
      WHW on staff. 😀 😀

      Going….going….. 😀

      1. 57 at Blue Hill observatory
        58 at Norwood Airport.

        Looks like at least a few more hours of these temperatures
        and another batch of heavy rain due soon.

        That should just about do the trick for vanishing snow.

    2. Totally agree Joshua, I find it such a waste of money when we have the technology to know that it’s all gonna be gone quick, it’s a pet pieve of mine, they love salting up here, I’ve seen them salt when the temp never got below 36 degrees, DURING A RAINSTORM, again it never got below 36 degrees, it was a waste, anyways just saying 🙂

      1. And I might add the forecast was for it to not get to 32 degrees, so it never makes sense, I never take advantage of my customers or companies, people notice if your taking advantage, it’s easy though for the sander or plower to scare them into it could possibly freeze, scare tactics, anyways there r a lot of honest workers as well, so I don’t want to lump everyone into 1

    3. Whatever hospitals didn’t spend thousands on taken the snow away, just saved money, and I think in a responsible way, safely was not at risk at all

      1. I’d love to know which hospital didn’t pay to have the snow removed so that I can avoid it in the future.

        1. Sue, why would u avoid a hospital simply on bc they didn’t remove the snow? Some hospitals can’t and must have the snow removed, bc they were built on such small plots of land, but some hospital CFO’s especially since budgets have been cut, and r able to safely stuff it in a corner and saving lots of money, and doing it responsibly, I see no wrong, especially when a day or 2 later it’s all gone, I respect your concern of safety and I do have the same concern, you would be very surprised on how many hospitals especially outside of Boston that don’t remove the snow esp if it warms up right after, like today, good day sue 🙂

        2. Jordan only removes the snow on the right side of the hospital, but stacks the snow on the left side way in back

      2. Charlie, if any hospital did not clear the snow, I would find it to be more than negligent. I find it very difficult to believe that any reputable hospital (the majority of hospitals being reputable) did not clear snow.

        1. It’s not about clearing it, it’s about getting trucks in there to actually remove the snow from the property 🙂

          1. I didn’t realize we were talking clearing vs removing. I could care less where they put the snow as long as I have safe access to the hospital. Not sure I have ever even been on the left side of BI Plymouth (Jordan) but as long as it is cleared in front and on the right where the ambulances arrive then that is certainly acceptable.

    1. I respectfully disagree. By this afternoon tempatures will be dropping faster than it snowed last storm, there gona tumble. And tonight will be downright cold. I believe things ice up. Everything is soaking wet and the cold air should be here by the time people are getting out of work. The big story today is not the 50s or the fog it will be the dropping tempature big time.

      1. I’m sure somebody will be salting John, but I’m not gonna just throw salt down just to charge, not saying you do that, but I’m just saying, I am in very close contact with people and monitoring conditions, I even have cameras to monitor certain locales 🙂
        Be safe!!

        1. All I know is the warmth is heading out and it will be darn right cold real soon. How can things not ice up when the tempature will be falling that quick.

  43. Charlie , it is not always any easy call on the salting. Sometimes the black ice will form with temps above 32.There was black ice in Brighton the other morning with channel 5 reporting 39 in Boston. Go figure. We had ice in Lexington on brick walks this am with temps in 40,s. Ground up icing I call it. !!!

  44. Anyone have a chance to see the 12z GFS ….. I cant look at it while at work.

    Just curious, particularly in the day 10 – 16 (240 hrs – 384 hrs) on how aggressive the run is with arctic air and how cold it is showing for the northeastern US ….

    Thanks ……

    1. Tom, its not very aggressive at all actually. The real cold never really makes it although its having colder air all the way down into the deep south.

  45. The bulge of very cold air is attacking the nation more or less at its northern mid point, which means that by the time we get the cold air it is mitigated quite a bit. It’s also a westerly flow, not a northwesterly. Perhaps this explains the lack of snow squalls on the back end? I don’t know. A northwesterly flow would represent more of a direct hit to us, in which the bulge of cold air comes from Quebec and Eastern Ontario. And, looking ahead to later this month, we may get such a direct hit.

  46. We have become such a litigious society and the finger pointing of liability and the easy settlement of slip and fall cases that everyone is CYA. Most of these snow contracts are written with hold harmless agreements so the contractor is left holding the bag. Just sayin’

    1. I totally agree with your comments, Kirbet. It’s sad that what we do is dictated by fear of someone holding us accountable for what typically is their fault. Between two stores in Wellesley there was a raised, mulched area that people used as a short cut rather than walk out to the sidewalk to go from one store to the other. The area was well marked stating Not to Walk on it. Last winter a woman fell on the mulched area because it was frozen over. She sued. She won. The stores had to also foot the bill for metal posts/railings to make the area impassable.

  47. if you have less than 1 inch of snow on the ground get ready for bare ground by the end of today. i have about 3 inches left thought its gonna be an ice rank by tomorrow

  49. I do think salt and sand on the roadways and sidewalks make sense this evening, and also tomorrow morning. I agree with John about this.

  51. It looks to go below 32 degrees around 7pm, the rain will stop around 3-4pm, whatever moisture left after 6-7pm will begin freezing

      1. Take a chill John, I don’t think it will freeze, but if there is any moisture left and I am wrong, then it will freeze after 6-7pm,

  53. Things are a mess at Logan. Because of the weather and new flight regulations for pilots, Jet Blue will cease operations tonight at 5 PM and will stay shut down for 17 hours before resuming flights again. Just announced.

    2. Wow……….I agree with limiting hours a pilot can fly but seems odd other airlines are not having same problem. I am not familiar with jet blue routes but it also seems that most major airlines fly to the same areas (ones that are currently having weather issues). Wonder what went wrong.

  55. charlie all hospitatals remove the snow its not legal to have snow in the parking lots after 6 hours of the storm. if you have a hospital that has snow in the parking lot still tell me so i can report it.

  58. It’s also possible that places west of Boston could end very briefly as a few wet snowflakes, we shall see

  59. Was just out for lunch. Took a walk to pick up some lunch.
    Snow has virtually vanish here. Mostly just a few snow piles left.

    1. Locally 1 PM observation showed temperatures between 56 and 58.
      Pittsfield, MA reporting SNOW with NW wind gusting to 35 mph and 32 Degrees.

      SO, the front is out there, progressing Eastward.

  60. There is some snow on the back end of the front. Becket, Massachusetts (in the Berkshires) has reported a drop in temperature from the upper 40s to around 36 and snow is beginning to fall. Nothing intense, though. I was expecting rather intense snow squalls. There appear to be some more intense bands in the Southern Adirondacks, but these won’t make it very far.

    1. Last several Observations from Pittsfield, MA:

      061824 BKN007 OVC012 0.25 SNFZFG 30 28 3010G16 G 28 061817 FEW005 OVC010 0.5 SNFG 32 28 2908 G 28 061807 BKN010 OVC013 0.25 SNFG 32 28 3010G28 G 28 061802 BKN010 OVC013 0.75 -SNBR 32 28 2921G28 G 28 061754 BKN008 OVC013 2.5 -SNBR 32 30 3112G31 G 33 945 001 052 56 32

      That’s some pretty decent snow. 😀

  61. BTW,

    IF the 12Z GFS is correct, the Patriots game Saturday night will be
    played under similar conditions as that of the Baltimore game.
    Looks to be RAINY and temperature’s in the 50s. I’m NOT saying the GFS
    is correct, just that IF it is (CMC looks rainy but much cooler with temps near 40).

    1. Goodness. The roller-coaster really doesn’t want to stop this winter. It’s like the Cyclone at Revere Beach in 1968!

  62. Hey, What’s going on here?

    Where did this come from. I don’t even know IF this is accurate, but it sure is different
    from 1/2 hour ago!!

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=1&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

      1. Yes, but it’s not what I predicted. I really thought the Berkshires would get at least several inches of snow (I believe I said up to 6 inches in spots). That does not look like it’ll happen.

  63. I think briefly it changes to snow west of Boston, no accumulation but nevertheless, also it looks like most of the heaviest precip is moving into nh

  65. The front may be moving west to east, but most of the precipitation is being generated at mid levels where winds are SSW in both sides of where the surface front is. That would be why the individual elements of rain are sliding NNE along the front while the entire area translates eastward. It’s easy to think of a front and its associated weather as a solid entity when it is anything but. It’s a propagating zone of air mass interaction.

    1. From 3PM obs, now snowing in:

      Pittsfield
      North Adams
      Springfield
      Westfield
      Orange
      Mixed at Bradley.

      It looks like temp drops very dramatically to the mid 30s.

  67. O.S. .. you are correct. There is a rapid drop to the 30s, a gradual lowering for a while after, then a sharper drop later when another boundary crosses the region. We have to watch for snow showers and snow squalls. Hard to estimate time for those, but my best guess is after 10PM until sometime tomorrow morning (maybe about a 12 hour window).

    2. Thanks tk, we r not planning on salting as it should dry out, BUT I will be monitoring thanks again

      2. Keep a close watch on it. I think we do get enough wind to dry MOST areas out but because the temp doesn’t go down like a rock, continued snow-melt from banks may set up streams of water that may freeze over later and be very hazardous, so it’s all about the location.

  68. Weather Underground has changed the display again.

    Has SNOW moving into the Boston Area!!!

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=BOX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=1&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

    AGAIN, I’m not saying it is correct, Just displaying it.

  69. It’s gonna have to get cold real quick for any of that precip to fall as snow. Still 45 right now in Walpole.

  73. TK You were right again, talking about how on a national level there talking about how this has never happened, it’s all over the national news about THE POLAR VORTEX, even saw a guy on Fox News state he was a real weather geek, and that he’s never heard of this, he continued to state how this is suppose to stay way up at the North Pole, and that it never comes out of that area, these national station have 100’s of Millions of viewers, I even got a couple text on the Polar Vortex

    1. I am so disgusted with the media it’s not even funny.

      At least some of the NWS offices are posting info to actually educate people the right way.

      We’ve had the “polar vortex” impact our weather every month of the year. Of COURSE it’s more noticeable in winter. The PV always exists. The phase of the Arctic Oscillation has very much to do with the position and configuration of the PV. It can even break down and become several PVs. It’s a normal physical process of the atmosphere. On a smaller scale we see the same thing with tornadoes, for example, that break down and become multiple vortex tornadoes. There are some differences, especially with scale, but the basic physics are the same.

    2. Anything to get tv ratings, but it’s sad bc millions of people will believe what they hear and watch

        1. Hehe. I am the first to say that. Cnn i dont have the problem with like fox and msnbc. Although the article on huffpo I saw did not.

  74. Well, it appears after all no snow will even mix in, and temps r not crashing as fast as I thought

  75. Mount Washington, 19 degrees with sleet and a west wind at 62 MPH sustained. Imagine standing out in that. 😉

  77. Pretty certain rain will end at Boston before it has a chance to mix/change. If Boston gets any snow accumulation, it will come overnight with a moderate or heavy snow shower/squall. Have to watch for those. Some guidance has suggested a healthy batch of them crossing southern New England later this evening into the overnight hours.

  79. It’s very possible for boston tk. I’m betting it will be a strong one as well. This rain were getting is just not good because those temps going to bottom out real soon. I’m expecting to be called back in tonight to at least salt. Roads will become very bad this evening. Spikes out for rest of season.

    1. I think they dry out first on MOST roads. The wind is up, and should stay up as the rain ends. 75-90% dry roads before it gets cold enough to freeze them.

      What may cause an issue is if brief heavy snow squalls come thru and coat things in a very short time. With the still mild ground you can have a very quick melt/freeze with snow atop it. That is where you’ll see the problems.

  80. MOBILE in Cambridge
    A little while ago it was 39 and sleeting hard.

    Tk when it sleets on mt. Washington, what level is
    Above freezing? Tx

    1. We had sleet at the end in Woburn. The warm air was probably about 1000 feet above Mt. Washington at that point.

  84. It appears that after a couple days of arctic cold, moderation for the weekend and a January thaw for at least the next 7-10 days. The CPC Outlook on target for a change.

  85. Sleet is such a great word. I believe it comes from Icelandic: slydda. In Iceland sleet is VERY common. It is often relatively cold at the surface, though not nearly as cold as we get, and warm aloft. Prevailing winds from the southwest, riding the gulf-stream.

  86. Man my prediction on this winter so far could not be going any better. Here’s hoping for high totals.

  87. Branch will be playing this Saturday in foxboro as a colt. Say what, typo. Nope branch was picked up today and is now a colt.

  88. Things here seem to be drying out nicely to this point, well see if we can get an isolated squall, chances are low imo, but we shall see, continuing to monitor

    2. High chance for a heavy squall Charles. Temp is also down to 39 in boston. Put them on standby Charles.

  89. Signs of a pattern change in Western Europe as well. Not set in stone, but forecasters there are seeing signs of the possibility of a building Scandinavian High that will steer easterly winds into countries like Holland and Belgium. Both have not seen an easterly wind in close to two months. Everything’s been west/southwest, coming from the ocean and relatively (actually very) mild. When it’s cold in Holland with an east wind, it’s usually relatively mild here (Pacific flow; flat jet-stream) during the winter. I know I’ve said this before, but it’s worth repeating.

    All in all, it does not bode well for us winter lovers in SNE the rest of the month.

    I would not prefer not to characterize the coming period in January as a January thaw, if what Harvey says verifies. It was cold the first 4 to 5 days this month. Obviously very mild the last 36 hours. Mildness returns on Friday and may stay with us for longer than 7-10 days. That is not a January thaw. That translates in my book ultimately as a mild January, if it verifies.

    Oh, how I miss January and early February of 2011. Consistent cold, frequent snowstorms, a real snow-pack, and none of these thaws or see-saw temperature swings. Oh well, right now I live in SNE. Perhaps time for me to move to Caribou, Maine.

    3. It will only be a mild January if after 31 days the temperature is above normal by more than 1 degree (debatable value of course). There are pretty strong signs of another PV dip into the Midwest and Northeast after mid month.

      1. Of course, you’re right, TK. But, it would not surprise me that the remainder of this month (with the exception of the next three days or so) is relatively mild. As you know, weather and weather patterns can change in a heartbeat. Yesterday, the European weather websites like the knmi.nl in Holland were essentially saying that the pattern would continue virtually unabated (mild in most of Western and Eastern Europe, generally colder than normal in most of North America). Today, they’re hinting at (not saying definitively at all) a change in the pattern. I do know that tomorrow everything could revert to what the thinking was yesterday. We shall see.

  90. The 75-90% was referring to my expectation of dry roads before it freezes enough to ice them. It’s unrelated to any squall activity that survives the trip over the mountains.

  92. The rain was over about 6PM in Woburn (with sleet at the end). As of 8PM the roads are nearly dry. As expected, the wind is doing its job before the really cold air arrives.

    So far, snow showers are not making it over the Berkshires in any significant way. That should change in a couple hours. Areas along and south of the Mass Pike stand a higher chance of squalls than do areas to the north, as I see it now, but we will have to watch a batch of snow showers in northeastern NY that may make it into some areas north of the Pike. Current time frame for greatest chance of snow showers/squalls is midnight to 4AM.

    Other scattered snow showers may still occur after that, into the early daylight hours.

        1. North Attleboro will not salt any of the town roads tonight, the only reason why I know, is bc I know the DPW supervisor, he said the town roads should dry out fine, maybe if needed salting near schools in the am 🙂

    2. North as a person that’s been doing this for quite some time, I know what they do, and how they do it, the state will salt and salt and salt and salt some more, But the town will not salt any of the town roads, towns have very little budget to work with, the state has unlimited budget, and will take out of something else for the shortfall, it’s sad, especially when we have the technology that we have to save millions of dollars, but we say safety is 1st, and I agree, but the salt isn’t doing anything essentially bc the roads r dry, take it easy north

      1. So you are saying that the salt on the town roads in my area was out there by the state? Why is it I see town trucks. Is the state paying them?

        3. I think 152 where u r is a state road, and rt 1, and a small part of 1a, but the rest r town roads

  94. OK, I feel absolutely ridiculous asking but….my daughter has to be in Kalamazoo, MI next week (Thurs through Sat)–is she going to like freeze to death?

            1. Can’t tell which areas will get them until they form and move closer, if they even make it this far east.

  98. Ok Charlie and Tk the sanders are out in Mansfield- I’m sure the police cruising around communicated slippage to the hwy. Dept.

    1. Makes sense. An area to the south, and low lying. 1) Less wind, less drying. 2) Low lying area where advecting cold air is pooling.

  99. 17 counties under weather advisories tonight. Many salters will be out tonight not because they want to waste our money but because public safety is of the highest priority always period. If I get called in tonight I can guarantee you there not even thinking about paying me the overtime, it’s all about safety.

  100. Seems that the icing issues are mainly south and southeast of Boston .. which makes sense given the rain ended their later. Areas to the NW had more time to dry. We’re all dry now on main roads in Woburn (12 miles NW of Boston). Of course this does not take into account side roads or roads that may be taking water from lingering snowmelt.

  101. You dam right salt should be put down. 1 accident is too many IMO. So if
    we have to pay for it so be it. Charlie your info is just not right. Maybe it’s what you would do but shame on people if they don’t salt and someone dies from an accident bc temp was 32 vs 33 and you made a judgment call that you shouldn’t salt bc of money. I can’t believe anyone on this blog supports what you are saying.

      1. If it’s about safety then why don’t you make it sound like that in your posts. I get your company wants to save money just everyone else but your comments don’t reflect safety as a priority.

        1. When texting or typing it can be miscommunicated in the way it’s read, I don’t save a penny on not salting hadi

  103. Tk. Harvey was talking about the pattern changing to a more warmer
    One lasting into next week. Do you agree. That starting this weekend.

      1. Sure hope that would last into the long mlk weekend. But it seems we always get a snow event or watcher for that weekend.

          1. I remember last mlk Monday there was to be a big storm as they were talking several inches. I believe it ended up being a dud.

  104. The state knows where treatment will be needed. They are in touch with the NWS. It will be used where it’s needed, and in any areas that it is iffy, as a precaution, as should be done.

    Cities and towns vary on who they rely on for information and they will act accordingly. I worked in the private sector for 16 years and one of the things we did was give this type of info to cities and towns that were our clients. I can promise you that many places NW of Boston won’t need much tonight, other than in local problem spots. Some towns especially southwest to southeast of Boston will more likely need widespread treatment. We’ll see how that goes. As of 9PM most air temperatures are above freezing as are road temperatures. There is a network of sensors set up on the highways that measure not only air temperature but pavement temperature to help track conditions.

  105. Drove up from CT tonight. Temp was at 27 for most of the CT part of trip and salt trucks were out in force. Got to MA Pike and pavement was dry and temp rose as I traveled east. no salt trucks.

  106. The only place it’s below freezing in a widespread way is Worcester County, as of 9PM.

    It’s not going down that fast and won’t do so until the second boundary comes through. By then, I think we’re pretty well dried out almost everywhere. The wind is very busy and the dewpoint is way down.

    Icing issues will be the exception rather than the rule. This is pretty well a certainty now.

  107. Well just a walk outside and on to Bourne street in out neighborhood and I can assure you it could use salt. Wether they do it or not who knows.

  110. Lol!! Geez they cannot get enough of this POLAR VORTEX and its never happened story, they won’t shut up about it, again it’s all about tv ratings

  111. Good grief! I have been avoiding the news at all costs because of it! Everything gets blown out of proportion nowadays it is ridiculous.

  114. thinking of transfering to umass boston in the fall …much better school for what im planning on doing. Environmental Science, Marine Science Track, not sure yet but im leaning towards it . umass boston also has an atmosperic (weather) minor program that i could do as well . obviously not as good as umass lowell but there is a program for it. 🙂

  116. My crews were out at 4pm pre-treating the roads with treated salt (immediately NW of Worcester). Rain switched to snow at 3:30, and then shut off at 4pm. Given the forecast of a quick temp drop, and the forecast of add’l snow squalls, it was more effective and efficient to pre-treat.

    If you wait for things to get snow/ice covered before you treat, you are too late.

      1. I’m about to crash for the night but when you have a minute would like to know more about how the salt is treated and how it works. Tx

  119. Warmer at this hour in northern Maine than New Orleans. Just another fascinating part of the weather. 32 vs. 28!

  123. It’s 7 here in Holden this morning but look at the bright side…..it’s 7x warmer than it was during that snowstorm!

  125. GFS (last 3 runs … in about the 10 – 16 day time frame)

    0z run yesterday : Very cold to down right frigid

    12z run yesterday : Spring like ….. one glancing blow of chilly air, upper midwest setting record highs

    0z run this morning : a mixture, mostly cold to occasionally frigid northeast, but mild/warm air intruding on the midwest.

    Useless, useless weather model. They should stop running it and take whatever money would be saved and put it towards the deficit.

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