Transition Time

141 Comments

7:11AM

And so the transition to a spell of milder weather is about to get underway, subtly at first as even though today will be a cold day, you’ll notice it far more tolerable than the weather that dominated from Monday night to now. Yes, cold air is still in place, but it’s up several degrees from yesterday and the wind is down a little bit more. This will be under plenty of sunshine as high pressure ridges over the region. Then, cloudiness will advance during the night tonight and thicken up early Friday. It may look like it’s going to snow, and there may even be some flakes in the air and even dusting the ground in a few places, but this will not be because a big storm of snow is on the way, it will be the atmosphere’s response to warmer air moving in, at first above us, then eventually to the surface, which will become much more noticeable but Saturday. The trade-off will be that the warm air will be coming along with a good slug of moisture, and Saturday, which may dawn without rain at least in eastern areas, will be a cloudy day and eventually turn wet everywhere. And it will be rain, not snow, because high temperatures will probably exceed 50 in much of the region. A ribbon of heavier rain may be translating across the region Saturday night, just in time for the NFL Playoff game between the Patriots and the Colts – haven’t we been here before? By Sunday, a rapid dry-out is expected as a cold front pushes all the wet weather offshore. It’ll be slightly cooler Sunday, but still pleasant by January standards, though with a breeze. There’s  not much cold air in store behind that system, so Monday may turn out quite mild. There are signs of a transition back to cold weather as we head toward the middle of next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England (southern NH, eastern MA, and RI)…

TODAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 25-30. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Increasing clouds. Lows 15-20. Wind light variable.

FRIDAY: Cloudy. Spotty light snow except snow or rain South Coast. Highs 33-38. Wind light SE.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. PM rain. Low 33. High 53.

SUNDAY: Clearing. Low 39. High 48.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Low 41. High 57.

TUESDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 38. High 45.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Low 22. High 35.

141 thoughts on “Transition Time”

  2. EURO still has a storm for next week but still too warm for us in SNE. GFS has no such storminess. Saturday looks miserable to be at Gillette.

    1. The Euro seems to want it on Tuesday now.
      The Canadian has something Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday.

      Depending on which model, it could be active next week, although
      not necessarily snowy. 😀

    2. There’s 35 of us going, we were not but when we found out how nice it’s gonna be, we r going, it’s gonna be 50-55 degrees 🙂

      1. I don’t care if it’s 90 degrees, windswept pouring rain is no fun at any temp. My couch and $1 Bud Lights is just fine thank you 🙂

        1. Lol, I couldn’t miss this for the world, I’m one of those fans that r diehards, I’d go if its -50 wind chill of -67 I’d be there 🙂

  8. I know i shouldn’t be complaining, but why do they have the pats game at 8:15 pm, aka more like 8:30 or later by the time they actually kickoff. Wouldn’t it make more sense for the Seattle game (west coast) to be the late game?

    1. as always, it’s always about having the highest tv rating, having the game at 8:15 with bring in the most money 🙂

    2. If they had Seattle on at 8:30, the ratings would be much lower on the east coast, and they (NFL) would not have as high tv ratings

      1. But wouldnt that go against the argument the NFL has superb ratings no matter what? It would be the same as a primetime national game on sunday or monday night. The NFL ratings are high on those games anyways right? So why would it matter? To me, for the playoffs, its making in-market game the easiest for the viewers in that market to watch.

    3. Agreed, Ace. Or move both earlier. The only saving grace is that it’s a Saturday. Wish Superbowl were also. Although it at least starts earlier.

  9. From NWS for Game Sat. Night:

    HOWEVER…STRONG PRESSURE FALLS AND TEMPS
    RISING WELL INTO THE 50S WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS
    REACHING ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE SAT AND SAT EVENING…ESPECIALLY INTHE COASTAL PLAIN. WIND THREAT WOULD BE ENHANCED IF A FINE LINE
    DEVELOPS.

    Hope Blount is ready to run and run and run some more. 😀

    1. Oh for sure. I see this game being won on the ground. Both QB’s will have to rely on the play action, shorter more accurate screens and short passes. I think the Pats have the better weapons to play that type of game than the Colts. Still, its gonna be a close low scoring game, late game FG wins it for either team.

      1. Agreed!! They have done study’s on the ratings back in the early 2000’s, and they found that people on the west coast r more apted to watch the entire patriots game on the east coast, as supposed to most on east coast won’t finish watching the game, everyone in the middle of the country will watch every game, they have it down to a science to receive every last penny, just getting over a stomach bug, ugh!!

      2. Agree, except for the filed goal.

        IF the winds are as advertised, Field Goals “may” be very tough
        to make. As good as Stephen Gostkowski is, the weather conditions “may” make field goals with any kind of length
        nearly impossible, unless by some miracle, the wind lines up
        at the kicker’s back. TK has alluded to it being more of an
        angled cross wind, negating that possibility.

  11. Both games will have great ratings. NO and Seattle probably will be a better game so imo it should have been the prime-time game.

    1. Why do you think Seattle would be a better game?
      Russel Wilson and Colin Kaepernick running around like a bunch of lunatics?
      Curious???? I hate that crap.

      Personally, I think the Pat’s game will be the better and more interesting
      game.

      1. For us here in NE maybe, ratings will be great, but u really think the rest of the country (who generally really really hate the pats), at 8:30 at night in the east will want to sit and watch and low scoring sloppy game in the rain?

        2. That’s what u want am, this is what we want, an opinion, if you don’t have an opinion then prolly your team sucks, the more people that hate the team the better, it only puts the Patriots on tv more bc they wanna see them lose, the Patriots are polarizing kinda like the cowboys of 20yrs ago,

          1. Oh I agree, the pats are very polarizing. Love em or hate em. I guess I am partial and would like to see the game on earlier on saturday, but my unbiased opinion is it will not be the highest rated game this weekend.

        2. OH, Sorry, I was getting ahead of myself and thinking
          the Seattle game was the NFC conference championship
          game.

          For me, Seattle vs New Orleans doesn’t do a damn thing.
          Nothing. I wouldn’t even put it on the TV.

          On the other hand, I might watch Seattle vs. San Fran.

          GIVE me the Pat’s and Indy. That’s going to be a game and 1/2. 😀

  12. I can’t even watch the game. We’re going to dinner, then playing cards with
    2 couples. We’ll be playing in the dining room with the Small Screen Television on in the kitchen. The best we’ll be able to do is keep up with the Score as we will not be
    able to see very many individual plays.

    Sometimes it is more important to keep friends than it is to see the game. 😀

    1. I wont be able to see some of the game either. We’re going to an annual xmas tree burning bonfire. Im hoping someone has a small tv or radio on in their truck until I can get home for at least the second half 🙂

      2. Ace I have never heard of anyone doing that other than my brother years ago. The whole neighborhood would go. It was a blast. Enjoy —- wish he were still here to do it again. I’d miss any game, or any event, to be there 🙂

  14. I am huge football fan but it does not dictate my life. Nothing is that important. I love my Skins and would watch but I would not put my life on hold.

    1. It doesn’t totally dictate my life, BUT I do set aside 3 hrs a week to watch the game or go to the game with the family, I think my kids want to watch as much as I do, I make it fun for em, they always want there faces painted Red/White and Blue, it’s fun 🙂

    1. Tues system is just offshore, but even if it came closer, p-type issues abound. Wed looks more interesting as it shows a clipper redeveloping to our south and moving on up. Sure this will probably change.

        1. You might be right, i took a look at the snowfall output for that and its only a couple inches. Its early though, still time for that to change. Problem is, like Joshua has been saying, with the seasonal temps, any precip that comes along will be a toss up between rain and snow with a slight edge given to rain.

  16. i got in a tiff with my parents freind pat the other day about tom brady and Peyton manning. she was saying how great peyton and that he is 100 times better than Brady. I tolder 17 playoff wins. 3 superbowl rings, 5 apperanches, undefeated regular season(still kills me today) Brady was breaking records left and right with weapons like welker and moss gronk and hermandez…. I told her if manning was that great they would be undefeated right now with those offensive weapons and descent defense but no every team thats in the playoffs right now have beaten them this year 😉 😉 Hey maybe the superbowl will be snowy 😉
    Back to weather. going skiing on friday to cranmore before it gets yucked out, 40s and 50s for highs saturday through tuesday with two systems one saturday into saturday night the other tuesday. possible storm some time after wednesday

    1. The thing that kills me about Brady, is when he was breaking all those records with the likes of welker, moss, hernandez, and gronk, he didnt win a championship. AFC east championships, MVP’s, undefeated regular season, doesn’t mean much without the ring at the end. He won his 3 championships the hard way with great defenses, clutch special teams, and decent and dependable but not great offensive players who had to work at it to be good. That said, Brady is still the QB i want on my team at the end of the day and not Manning 🙂

  17. I think the big game of the weekend is the pats. Saturday night game, ratings will be through the roof. I believe no wins and the San diago/ Denver game may surprise people. Sd gave them there only home loss of the season. I’m glad the models seem to be picking up something for next week. I already said it but my gut tells me either were watching a snow event for mlk weekend or we will get one. I’m telling you I just can’t seem to get that entire day off.

  20. Storminess, yes, starting Saturday and doing its thing pretty much every other day. But all of it in the form of rain at the coast, IMO. It will feel a lot like early to mid November next week, and not January. Fairly miserable week ahead, in my book. Temperatures in the interior will be marginal for snow late in the week, but at the coast (until you get to 128, or even 495) not even marginal.

      1. GFS also has Amsterdam (Netherlands) essentially staying above freezing after Tuesday, which is very much at odds with what Dutch forecasters are currently saying.

  22. Brady versus Manning: I’d pick Brady for his ability to perform under adverse conditions and for his low-key personality. On my early morning I’ve seen Brady a few times in my neighborhood, playing with his children in the Esplanade Park. He’s a true family person. Doesn’t talk about it much. But you can see that he loves being around his children. He’s also handled his co-parenting situation so well. I admire that. Never been a fan of Manning. Realize he is a great QB. But, he’s generally a fair weather guy with no personality. At least not a personality I like.

      1. I see Amendola and Edleman a lot as they live in West Estates N.Attleboro, but with Kraft building housing at Patriot Place, a lot of players will be staying there starting in 2015.

        1. Edelman is my favorite Patriot this year. Incredible season, really, for a guy no-one thought would become a very good slot receiver and punt return specialist. I know he’s got personal issues, but he’s a real football player. Amendola strikes me as an amiable person, but that’s just by face and how he interviews.

  24. I just found out that there was an earthquake 30 miles south of me, I’m actually at the house resting bc I’m not feeling well, I didn’t feel a thing

  25. I think the Seattle Saints game will have the highest tv ratings, bc it’s Sunday night, and many many more people r home.

      1. O crap!! Then the Broncos/Charger will have the highest ratings esp around the 2nd quarter, and if its a blowout ratings will plummet, if its close, then ratings will stay strong till the end 🙂

  26. Well, I think we can kiss Tuesday good bye for any chances of snow.

    Euro paints a Monster Eastern Lakes Cutter or perhaps a real Western
    Inside runner. Either way, it’s a big rain and warmth producer ONCE AGAIN!!!

    Saturday’s event hasn’t even arrived, and I am SICK to DEATH of cutters and inside
    runners. They should be BANNED! 😀

    1. That’s the one to watch though. Cold air will be in place but may push anything trying to form along the coast OTS wide right

    1. This reminds me of a genius Canadian show, “The Trailer Park Boys.” F-bombs in almost every line, and most of the descriptions in your link have been uttered by all the characters 🙂 LMAO!

  30. I’m with you, OS, on the rain thing. This winter has featured quite a few rain events. Looking ahead, I’m more and more convinced the European forecasts I’ve been reviewing are correct. In sum, it’s going to get cold over there, while it warms up here and stays that way for awhile. Not always in the 50s, mind you, in fact more often in the 40s. My son is returning from Holland Saturday (3 week visit to his Mom), which is basically the day things start to switch from a very mild (I mean exceptionally so) first 6 weeks of winter over there to a much colder scenario. He flies back here to things changing from cold to mild. He’s a fan of winter like I am, and so I had to disappoint him by telling him a few days ago that he’s missed some winter over here, not gotten any over there, but that he’ll continue to miss winter as it’s out to lunch over here starting this weekend and starting to rev up by late this weekend in Europe. Oh well. There’s always February.

  32. Keep in mind we are 14 inches above average for snow so sure inside runners suck but the way people are complaining you would think we have had nothing. February will be a big month.

    2. I’m only about 5 inches above normal for snowfall, exactly 18.0 inches so far, it has been a decent winter if your a snow lover 🙂

    1. I agree. I keep hearing people say SF is going all the way this year again. I was not impressed with their season at all. They get knocked off by a good althletic and fast Carolina defense on Sunday. Kaepernick wont run on them.

  35. It wouldn’t suprise me with the warm air advection tomorrow a few snow showers, maybe a coating, this is the leading edge of our 5-7 day thaw

      1. LOL! I am not surprised. My husband used to work for Norwegian Cruise Line and all of the crew LOVED the Boston to Bermuda run. Apparently the bar crew made more in tips on this run than any other itinerary.

      4. Oh so Sad.

        BUT, I have to agree with Charlie (How’d that happen?),
        the fact that there are many, many Colleges and Universities
        in the area, has to contribute to this. Maybe we’re a bunch
        of derelicts anyway, I dunno.

  39. Hadi, you are right. We should not complain about this winter. It’s not nearly as bad as 2011/2012 (for winter lovers, that is). We’ve already had a really fun storm and some very cold spurts. And I’m not throwing in the towel for February and March, but I am for January. I’ll probably be proven wrong, but I don’t see the rest of this month reverting to cold and snowy.

  43. Hi All,

    In your neck of the woods for meetings in Boston. A very nice winter day. I don’t know if anyone has commented on this next topic. We were all complimenting the models last week on their performance during the 1/2-1/3 storm. However they were way over done in QPF. Boston only received .57 of QPF. The noteworthy nature of this storm was the 26:1 ratio. The record for New England during a 30 year study of LER for snowfalls of 2″ or more is 29:1 in Caribou ME. By contrast Westover AFB just outside of Springfield had a 14:1 ratio. Thus the 4-6″of snow in CT River Valley.

    1. Jma
      Not sure if in the record books anywhere
      But somewhere late 80’s or early
      90’s we had a little storm out in Westwood where
      I was working. About 6 inches of the
      Fluffiest snow I EVER ssw in my life.
      Had to be 35:1.

  44. I would say the nam is the worse of them. Just checked out the seven day and there were three 55 degree days starting Saturday.

  46. The only thing was the jackpot area was to be down here and instead went to Essex county. What we got was plenty and can’t imagine if we did get jack pot amounts. Still plenty of snow in the yards here.

  47. I believe if I’m correct it was a surprise that the jackpot went there as I thought they were to get less. I believe we had 14-15 inches and was to get more.

    1. An early call by TK

      “*Snow amounts of at least 4 inches are very possible over most of the region, with an early call on highest amounts being in northeastern MA and southern NH (based on where I think a heavier snow band may set up from air lifting over a boundary), and along the eastern coast of MA (due to ocean-enhanced snowfall).”

      John, the only reason I remembered that was because you mentioned TK said higher amounts north of Boston at least two, if not three, times so I went back to check. And you were correct

  48. 18z GFS gives us almost an inch of liquid in Boston from the
    coastal clipper development next Wednesday and all of it snow. It only it were true.

  50. Increasing evidence of a fairly short-lived warm-up.

    Yes very mild Saturday along with the rain/wind.
    Sunday will be a few degrees cooler with a gusty wind.
    Warms back up Monday with uphill (SW) flow making it feel like a Spring day.
    Low pressure brings rain Tuesday followed by a windy and cooler weather Wednesday.
    Watch a wave of low pressure just to the east which may bring a period of snow about Thursday next week. A couple weak disturbances leading to a probable return to Arctic air sometime over MLK Weekend.

      1. I think some have been calling for a longer warm up. TK is eluding it to only being a couple days. Which I am in total agreement with.

        Hey looking at radar some areas might sneak in an inch or two this morning?

  51. I love the sunshine, and slightly less-cold temps. I mean, I don’t hate the colder temps, and the wind and the darkness, but I do enjoy less wind and for it to be slightly warmer. 🙂 But it’s January, and New England, so I accept what I am given. I do love my warm kitties and blankets. 😀

    1. My favorite part of winter – well one fav part – is waking up all toasty warm wrapped in a comforter. Like sleeping in a cloud 🙂

  54. 2013 was Australia’s hottest on record.

    By their standards, and thats quite hot, they’ve already (to start 2014) had one brutal heatwave in the Queensland territory and now western Australia is broiling again.

    Perth is forecasted to be 107F on Saturday. And some interior town not far away is shooting for 50C.

    1. It has been brutal in Australia all summer. My understanding is that all kinds of records have been set.

  55. Nice waking up to half an inch of snow this morning. Certainly making things slick and causing a lot of school delays in CT.
    Late tomorrow and tomorrow night rainorama.

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