Milder, Wilder

128 Comments

7:28AM

A dash of snow will fall this morning as if to start a list of ingredients that will make up a mix of various kinds of weather during the next few days, all part of a milder pattern that will be in control into next week. Today’s snow, most prominent this morning, is the result of warm air arriving, first aloft, then later at the surface. The snow will not amount to much (less than 1 inch all areas, less than 1/2 inch most areas), but its timing during the commute will make some roads a little more tricky.

Saturday will be a much milder and wetter day as a slug of tropical moisture comes up from the south ahead of a cold front. The wettest part of the day will be afternoon and nighttime, including during the NFL playoff game between the Patriots and Colts in Foxboro MA. This may also be when it is warmest (above 50 in most areas). The cold front will sweep all the wet weather offshore during the overnight hours and by Sunday, expect fair and only slightly cooler conditions along with a gusty wind.

High pressure south of the region will bring mild air back a little stronger on Monday, which will be another 50+ degree day for much of the region, but this time with dry weather. Another front will bring rain showers Tuesday, then a shot of cold air behind it for the middle of the week. We will have to watch a wave of low pressure that may pass just east of the region Thursday, with colder air in place, for the potential of some snow at least for eastern areas. It does look like we’ll transition back to a colder pattern during this time.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Cloudy. Periods of snow through midday with accumulation of under 1 inch. Spotty light snow transitioning to light rain later in the day. Highs in the 30s. Wind light SE shifting to S.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Spotty light rain. Temperatures rising toward 40. Wind S 5-15 MPH.

SATURDAY: Cloudy. Rain showers likely, becoming steadier during the afternoon. Highs around 50. Wind S to SW 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.

SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast with rain, heavy at times, during the evening, ending between 11PM and 2am west to east. Clearing toward dawn. Temperatures in the 50s in the evening, falling into the 40s overnight. Wind S to SW 15-25 MPH and gusty in the evening, shifting to W overnight.

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Temperatures steady in the 40s. Wind W 15-25 MPH and gusty.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 35. High 53.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers. Low 38. High 46.

WEDNESDAY: Partly sunny. Low 27. High 38.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 22. High 32.

128 thoughts on “Milder, Wilder”

    1. I was half asleep and post migraine for this one. 😛

      I thought of Gene Wilder after I wrote it, then Matthew Wilder. Can anybody tell me what Matthew Wilder is most known for (non-weather trivia)? 😉

          1. I must be very, very old – I couldn’t place the title. And now I went and listened to it, of course know it well and it’s in my head too. Ugh

  5. Its not a lot of snow but it doesn’t take much makes things a bit slippery. The timing was not good here in CT which is why there are a lot of school delays.

  6. Quick post as I’m headed to all-day meetings.

    Thanks, TK, for your wonderfully written posts.

    Slick indeed out there. Be careful on the sidewalks. I already slipped twice.

    European forecasters are now more hesitant about the building of a strong Scandinavian High. It’s going to be there, but relatively weak , and not ushering in the coldest of air-masses. Forecasters suggest a 50-50 chance of a lengthy period of relative cold in Western Europe. Yesterday’s estimate was 70-30. As TK rightly pointed out, weather is variable. I’ll keep you all posted on (northern) Western-European developments, which I believe are often inversely related to our weather.

  7. Good Morning. Heading into a 3 hour meeting at 10AM.

    Drive in this morning was the same as ever. No problems whatsoever.
    Biggest problem I had was having to clear a healthy dusting of snow from
    my car. 😀

    Looks like the initial thrust of snow is departing, but what is this down stream?

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=OKX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=1&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

    Will it get up here and IF it does, will it be too warm by then?

  9. NWS out of Upton, NY for next Thursday storm POTENTIAL
    UNCERTAINTY IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH ECMWF
    DEVELOPING ANOTHER LOW MOVING OFF THE CAROLINAS AND NEAR THE
    BENCHMARK OF 40N/-70W. FOR NOW…KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
    FOR WED-THU.

  12. Just spoke to a worker who commutes from East Providence RI.
    She was complaining about no warnings about the snow and witnessed many, many accidents. She said they received at least 2 inches of snow.

    1. I’m was in Seekonk this morning OS, and there was a tad more down towards that area. I didn’t think it was 2 inches, but it was more 🙂

  16. It was actually pretty seeing a little snow this morning, but I gotta admit, I’m going to enjoy this 5-7 day period of above average temps, Obviously we will trend colder again, but I willing to bet, we won’t get to -5 again.

    Get out and enjoy the snow bc over the next 12 hrs, it’s gonna go poof, it has no water content at all, don’t they call this champagne powder in the Rockies? Good day all 🙂

  17. 12Z GFS trying to get something going along the east coast for next wed. I wish those temps weren’t so marginal

    1. Aaaand surprise surprise, too warm for snow. Mountains and ski areas do well, especially NH and ME. We shall see if the euro is warm as well as i suspect it will be

  19. Shocking how thin that snow map is. It’s deceiving up north, most of the deeper snowpack is at mountain peaks, mountain bases are very thin.

  20. And as is the case far more often than not – model precip amounts overdone. At least they are consistent. 😛

  21. The high temp at Logan yesterday was 30 degrees, but I was outside most of the day and I was chilled to the bone the entire time as if the high never made it out of the teens. As much as I like snow, I will welcome this temporary thaw over the weekend into early next week.

  23. With all this precip tk, and another 1.0-2.0 inches of rain coming, r we safe to say we r no longer in a moderate drought?

      2. The Sudbury continues to be below normal but every time I go by it is higher. Big difference from the mud flats not long ago. GREAT to see.

        1. So different from the Charles. The Charles has been
          bank full or a bit beyond that for a long time now. 😀

  24. Boston is at 86 hours below freezing as of noon. Should tack on 2 more for 88. Boston running. 8.2F BELOW NORMAL for the 1st 10 days of January.

    1. Hey OS, im at work in Walpole, close to the Norwood line, and we just had a brief rain shower with some fog but that was it. Temps are at or just above freezing now. Looks like the northern edge of that heavier precip just missed me but it may have been heavier where Charlie is, a bit further south

  26. A little non-model weather prediction ……

    It will average near normal the rest of January and on Feb 1st, an arctic cold front will pass through, so that on Super Bowl Sunday, it will be -4F for a high temp.

    Now the best part would be if the Pats could somehow represent the AFC and play for a championship in the hometown of the Jets and Giants !! NY would host the Super Bowl and have the lowest television ratings. 🙂 🙂 🙂

    1. I mean, think about Gillette someday hosting the Super Bowl and the Jets being the AFC representative. 🙁 🙁 🙁

      1. Oh, I get you. That would be awesome if the Pat’s get
        to the S-Bowl!!

        Prime Snowstorm date. Wouldn’t that be something!

          1. Kraft should have thought of that when he had it built. It’s ur standard stadium, nothing special or flashy about it. Sure the surrounding Patriot place is nice but come on, its not NYC or Dallas TX, this is Foxboro, MA 🙂

    1. TOTALLY and COMPLETEL DISREGARD that post.
      It was the 0Z. I click on it and it doesn’t automatically provide
      the latest. I have to manually select the time of run!

      So sorry.

  29. Im actually surprised temps in the area are still hovering around freezing. Its raw. Untreated roads havent been able to clear up

  30. Steady rain passing through, temp continues to inch up, temp 34.1, temps will stay above freezing overnight IMO

    3. I check into the National Hurricane Center year round. Like to click on the world wide satellite floaters. I’ve been watching this storm for a few days, but it seems to have rapidly intensified overnight and today.

      1. Tom you beat the weather channel to it!

        The Weather Channel
        The first tropical cyclone of the South Pacific season, TC ‪#‎Ian‬, is expected to pass near Tonga. Details here: http://wxch.nl/1ktMUYu

        Tropical Cyclone Ian Passing Near Tonga in South Pacific – weather.com
        wxch.nl
        The first tropical cyclone in the South Pacific is passing near Tonga.

  32. AccuWeather.com
    According to Ronald Horwood, senior hazard hydrologist with the New England River Forecast Center, “There is the potential for flooding and ice jams this weekend, especially from near Buffalo, N.Y., through Massachusetts.”

    1. Hadi, if you mean Thursday, the 16th.

      According to Wundermap, 850mb temps very cold.
      ALL snow. About 4-6 inches for Boston.

      On Wundermap it is hours about 136-144 or so.

      We shall see. 😀

      2. I have a feeling it snows then. Been feeling something in the January 15-17 window for several days.

  35. I am hoping this is a short intermission for winter and it will resume late next week and that watcher turns into a snow producer.
    I saw the comment on Super Bowl weather. It will be totally opposite of what the Almanac is predicting calling for an intense storm with heavy rain, snow, and wind. I think it will be a seasonable day with highs in the upper 30s.

  36. Medium / Long Range thoughts…

    We all know the pattern is readjusting this week. It’s done this several times. It’s pretty certain that the temperatures, after starting out at greater than -8 departure through the 10th morning of 2014, will rebound a bit from now through early next week. Let’s make a rough estimate that the departure from normal will come about 4 closer to zero, at about -4 just in time for near to below normal temperatures to return in what I think will be a colder than normal January with near to above normal snow and closer to normal precipitation.

    I think February may be a cold/dry one, absent of a whole lot of storminess. I’ll get into the reasons why on this as we go through the middle of this month and I have a chance to examine trends a bit more.

    2. re: February

      You mean except for February, 2, right? You know it will snow then!

      Super Bowl XLVIII will be the 48th edition of the Super Bowl in American football, and the 44th annual championship game of the modern-era National Football League (NFL). It is scheduled to be held on February 2, 2014, at MetLife Stadium at the Meadowlands Sports Complex in East Rutherford, New Jersey with kickoff scheduled for 6:25pm EST (UTC−05:00), to determine the champion for the 2013 season. This will be the first Super Bowl to be played outdoors in a cold weather environment, the first in 38 years to be played outdoors on FieldTurf, and the first in which two US states (New York and New Jersey) will work together with hosting duties.

      1. I hope the Christie administration doesnt think “its time for some traffic” again. Those people in the backup would miss the whole game. 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂 🙂

          1. Don’t agree and hope not. I wish we had more like him…..I may not agree with everything he does but I never wonder if he’s saying what he means. Any that from an individual who is constantly labelled a flaming liberal on the blogs :). Would LOVE to see Clinton Christie match

    1. Click on image to enlarge it. Also, this is 988 MB. Interesting.
      Wish this was the Euro. We know what it is. Still nice to look at.

  41. I got a question, and I have no idea why there all over our stations, BUT why have I seen commercials about starting companies in NY (Tax free Zones) and bring your company here. Are our stations owned by NY? Very Bizarre

  44. I’m thinking the heaviest rain is during the 1st half of the game, the 2nd half looks less wet, especially the 4th quarter. Go Patriots!!

    1. Tough game. Not a believer in the point spread. Hope it’s right, but sometimes you play a team with a young QB and they don’t have much to lose. They play looser ball. Young enthusiasm can present the Pats with problems.

      On another note … as ludicrous as this might sound … I believe the Pats will be a super tough team to beat next year. Long discussion for another day.

  46. went skiing today at cranmore, good mountain , though like most new hampshire ski areas it was icy

    1. Matt I grew up skiing cranmore nearly every weekend. It was never icy, especially this time of year. Sunapee being further south always seemed icy. The times are changing. I’m glad you got in your runs…..ice or not.

      1. skimeiser was the best trail with little ice. Also think it might have to do with that slight warm up that weekend . over all a great day besides for the morning trafic. do to the 1 inch of snow. i counted 7 spin outs

  47. our back field needs a big game tomorrow against the colts defense. When brady goes for the passes he does go for he needs the o line to keep him up right from mathis. #BLOUNT IT!! talib needs to keep Hilton at bay… rookie line backers need to make a name for them selfs and defense line needs to get to Luck but not let him get out of the pocket, richardson is a joke 🙂

  51. TODAY.

    Freezing Rain Advisory in central and western MA.

    Wind Advisory in SE MA starting about 2 PM til roughly midnight.

  52. Kiss my prediction goodbye. We are indeed returning to cold Not sure about cold, but certain about cold), as virtually all of you said (the limb I was hanging out on is being felled). Listen to the real experts like TK, don’t listen to me.

    The slightly colder temps in the low countries (Europe) will be ever so brief. Basically tomorrow through Tuesday, and not nearly as cold as what was forecast as recently as three days ago. A resurgent and continuous southwesterly flow will bring in Atlantic moisture, and once again normal to above normal temps over there. Will they ever see any semblance of winter?

    The only thing all of this confirms is my theory of an inverted temp/weather profile between the Northeast and Northwestern Europe. That almost always holds, and I’ve yet to see an explanation for it.

    1. I think your prediction has a good chance to verify ! 🙂 🙂

      Nothing I see is impressing me for cold. A handful of mid 30s to near 40F, maybe …… and the 10+ day outlooks currently make one think the above avg temps would return again.

  53. Good morning!! Game day!!! Very wet today, temp here is 39.3 degrees, all the snow is gone, waiting for the next snow event, maybe late next week, we shall see

  54. Go Pats! Heading to the store to get our game snacks before the rain heads in. Hoping if we get snow next week that it comes before the 17th. Can you arrange that TK?

  56. UGH!!! Heavy rain, gusty winds, and an isolated rumble of thunder and its winter.
    It looks like the thaw lasts about a week. It does not look promising for any snow through at least the next week.

  57. Good morning all,

    Look over the charts….They have changed since yesterday. I wouldn’t dare predict a thing.

    re: today.

    Looks WINDY. Look at this 12Z NAM surface wind gust chart for 5PM today:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014011112&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=010

    In fairness, it shows the wind slacking off some (still very windy, but not as intense)
    by game time.

    Here is the GFS at it’s WINDIEST:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014011106&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=018

    RAP

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/RAP-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014011113&time=INSTANT&var=GUSTM&hour=011

    There is MUCH variance among those 3 models.

  59. I wouldn’t be surprised interior areas reach wind advisory criteria for a short time especially if some of the higher wind gusts could be transfered down to the surface with the squall line. I also wouldn’t be surprised if there are rumbles of thunder with the squall line. No severe weather expected.
    Threat Level Index with this storm system
    Wind – Elevated
    Flooding – Elevated

  60. Blog is updated.
    Forecast after Tuesday is lower than average confidence. Details not easy to iron out more than a few days out, even moreso than usual.

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