Fogcast Update

105 Comments

7:30AM

The weather has a mind of its own and doesn’t often exactly do what even a well thought-out forecast predicts. I didn’t predict widespread fog overnight and this morning. And in the days leading up to this I didn’t predict exactly what’s going to transpire the next few days, not that it will be vastly different, but it’s just another reminder of the unpredictability of weather and the inexactness of the science of meteorology.

Last night’s and this morning’s fog will gradually thin out and dissipate as the day goes on, but before that it may not only cause a problem in terms of reduced visibility but also ice. This fog will be depositing some ice on some surfaces outside the city of Boston, especially western and northern suburbs, where temperatures have fallen a little below freezing. “Ice fog” is not unheard of around here, but not something we see too often either. Temperatures will go above freezing in all areas later this morning and any ice will melt. The day will continue to feature lots of clouds as a disturbance from the west and clouds from a storm system developing offshore converge over the region. Precipitation will be limited to a little rain over Cape Cod and a flake or two of snow in north central MA from the two systems. We’ll be in between systems Friday, which will feature mild air, lots of clouds, and some sun. Another system will develop offshore Friday night and Saturday but again it looks like the bulk of this system will be over the fish. This time enough of the moisture should get into the region to produce some light rain and snow with no significant snow accumulation.

By Sunday and Monday we will be in transition toward a coming much colder weather pattern. A couple disturbances will bring the chance of snow showers, especially Sunday with temperatures getting back to seasonal cold. By Tuesday into the  middle of next week, it will be much colder as the “dreaded Polar Vortex” (sarcasm) makes its return. What I am  not sure of this far out is if any significant snow will accompany the return to the cold pattern. Some models have shown this, while others just keep it dry. Plenty of time to iron those details out. Just know that we are heading back to the cold next week.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Fog dominates the morning and also watch for icy areas in the suburbs especially north and west of Boston, clouds dominate the afternoon. Highs 40-45. Wind light N.

TONIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows 25-32. Wind light variable.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy to partly sunny. Highs 40-45. Wind light variable to SW.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of rain/snow. Low 30. High 40.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Low 25. High 35.

MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Partly cloudy. Low 20. High 30.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 15. High 25.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow. Low 10. High 20.

105 thoughts on “Fogcast Update”

  1. Thanks TK …. and oh no ! Anytime it goes below freezing now, the non-weather media will be tracking the whereabouts of the “polar vortex”.

    I cant wait to see what happens next summer when it goes above 90F. They’ll be sending reporters to Bermuda in search of the big H in the sky.

    2. That’s just part of it. One cannot forget that we may be entering a snowier pattern soon which can only be attributed to XTREME weather. 🙂

  4. For Matt:

    In no way was I disparaging the Pats, all I was saying was that Tom Brady is not the athlete that Jordan was, and comparing the two is ridiculous athletic wise. Nor do I think RGIII is anything to compare him to. RGIII is certainly a phenomenal athlete but has a lot to learn which he will.

    2. You crack me up hadi, I’m sure u will be spitting your spew this sun/Mon if the patriots lose, u weren’t around this past week when the patriots beat the colts, you don’t really like the Patriots hadi, that’s ok!! Just say it, it’ll be ok Go Patriots!!

    4. What Tom means to the nfl is very close to what Jordan did to the nba, everything from rules to the way the NFL plays is bc of Tom Brady and the New England Patriots 🙂

  5. GFS now on board a little more than previous but the EURO backed off on big storm for next week. A lot to work out, but also looking at long range I am very optimistic for many snow chances and prolonged cold

  7. Thank you, TK!!! …..for the great writeup and for shoooooooo-ing that system away on Saturday. A miss on the fog is certainly trumped by that fait accompli

  8. Good morning,

    Not sure it snows next week at all. Hope it does. Not convinced at this point.
    I KNEW the Euro would back off. I knew it. Why would it be any other way.

    We shall see.

    I really don’t like the way the Euro has been behaving. It teases us with a nice
    system, then proceeds to march it out to sea.

    The PV will rule. Any storminess stays out on the fish.

    And when we finally get some storminess, it will be an inside runner or Lakes Cutter as the PV retreats.

    What I really want to see is something BIG to get going with LOADS of qpf and
    bump into the Arctic Cold here and give us another HIGH ratio event with like 2 inches of qpf for 40-50 inches of snow. Will we see that? Not a chance. But I can
    dream, can’t I???????

    😀 😀 😀

    Just once this Winter, I would like to see ALL of the models predict a biggie a week out
    and nail it. None of this flipfloporama we’ve been seeing.

  9. On Another note, I hear Bert Brier this morning on the radio and he indicated
    that Brady showed up for Practice this morning.

    Now, that is a good sign. Perhaps we dodged a bullet there???

    1. Hey,

      I want what I want. 😀

      I’ve seen 3 feet of snow before. (Blizzard of 78, 27 inches at Logan, 36 inches at my house). SO, I simply need to see more before I depart this Earth. 😀 😀

  12. I was here after the Pats win and I congratulated everyone on FB. What I don’t like is arrogant fans with any sport. Tom is an all time great and has meant a lot to football but to equate his physical skills to Jordan is a joke IMO.

    1. I understand what you are saying, however, I really think that the reference
      here was more to his heart and drive. “Could” he play ill like Jordan did.

      And our answer was YES. IF Jordan could do it, Brady could.

      2. Yup. 100% reference that the greats find a way to overcome adversity. I wasnt even thinking about the athletic comparison. 🙂

      3. But…….It started with my comment that “The greats are a cut above. It is what makes them great. ” I agree with your comment, OS. Well except that it was actually if Williams could do it, Brady could do it. 😉 Who the heck is this Jordan fella ?

        1. It won’t go anywhere, UNLESS it becomes one
          of those funky POTENT Norlun Troughs that dumps
          significant snows. IF that were to happen, good grief!
          I can’t even imagine!! 😀

  17. I am trying and failing to understand how admiring the drive of an athelete somehow makes the fans that admire them arrogant. 🙂

  19. I love discussions of Norlun troughs. Introducing the topic of Norlun troughs is the perfect way to get your guests to leave if you think they’ve stayed a bit too long after dinner.

    It’s Friday evening. Looking at your watch, you realize it’s almost 10pm and the 00Z NAM is up and running.

    You: “Harry, Sally, have you ever considered the possibility of a Norlun trough setting up tomorrow? Let me explain to you how a Norlun trough establishes itself and what that will mean, meteorologically speaking. …

    Harry: “Gosh, how time flies … That was a great dinner, but we really ought to go now.”

    Sally: “Yeah, dinner was fabulous. Have fun with that Norlun thing you just mentioned.”

    Or, Norlun troughs can be used to end a date that’s not been going well anyway.

    Your date: “So, like, what are you into? … Like, what do you do for fun?”

    You: “I’m into weather big time. Just passionate about things like Norlun troughs. Did you know that a Norlun trough extends westward from an area of developing low pressure offshore, and that this creates an upward motion with air in the atmosphere? Combined with cold air aloft and moisture from the ocean, this can on occasion produce narrow, but very intense bands of snow that extend northwestward from the low offshore.”

    Your date: “Mmm … that sounds … intense … [looking at watch] I really gotta go. Thanks for the drink, and … good luck with Norlun.”

  20. Hadi – I agree with others that at no time was anyone equating Brady to Jordan. The discussion began with my comment that greats are literally set apart and accomplish things that us mere mortals cannot. I showed that with my personal knowledge and Tom did so with an example of Jordan’s rising above. It had nothing to do with comparing anyone.

    I’m struggling with two things. First, I have not seen any arrogance so just don’t know what you are referring to. Do you have an example that might help? Second, Tom Brady will go into the history books as one of, if not the greatest QB in NFL history. You have spoken of his greatness as well. I have absolutely no problem putting Brady (or Manning for that matter) and Jordan on the same level from the perspective that they are, in fact, among the greatest in their field.

    1. I think I figured out the answer to the first question 🙂 And I get what you are saying. Not so much the second but that’s ok as we all see things differently 🙂

  22. Just watched the Brady press conference. He looks fine and is fine. I don’t the following just because I am a Pats fan BUT I must say I was inspired more today than I have been in his recent press conferences. There was a certain confidence I saw today combined with calmness and focus. It’s hard to describe, but there was a look and feel about Brady that was a cut above where he normally is.

    By the way, he was nowhere near the word “sick.” I wonder if he took a mental health day.

    1. There has been the mention of his shoulder but then everything else has been rumor as well. I missed the conference but great to hear your positive comments!!!!

  23. OS, my comment about not wanting to discuss a Norlun Trough was in jest, and was made in reference to our discussion about it last winter when we talked it for two full days and we ended laughing at ourselves.

  24. With the light onshore flow (020 at the Boston Harbor Buoy), and the light wind, the fog has held on thus far today. I’m thinking the visibility might be 1/4 mile.

    Anything on the 12z GFS the next several days with all of the Clippers rounding through the trof ?

  25. Re: BRADY

    My wife had a take on what transpired yesterday.

    It was all a ruse to possibly disrupt the Broncos preparation. 😀 😀

  26. To Hadi’s Post regarding the Super Bowl.

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014011612&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=372

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conusncep.php?run=2014011612&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=384

    Actually, that would be a much more significant storm for SNE. 😀 😀

    Here is the snow map, as fictitious as it may be:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014011612&time=72&var=ASNOWI&hour=384

    That’s still a good solid 6-8 inches down there at the SB site. 😀 😀 😀

    I HOPE that happens, but we know better than that. 😀

  29. Frost Quakes? Never heard of that. Check it out.

    AccuWeather.com
    Last week we asked if any of our fans had experienced a “frost quake” and dozens of you said you had.

    In this article, we delve deeper into the science of how they are formed and when & where they occur.

    https://fbexternal-a.akamaihd.net/safe_image.php?d=AQD9APDTO9tbaW8-&w=398&h=208&url=http%3A%2F%2Fvortex.accuweather.com%2Fadc2004%2Fpub%2Fincludes%2Fcolumns%2Fnewsstory%2F2014%2F650x366_01141916_frost-quake.jpg&cfs=1

    1. Never heard of them. As a kid I was fascinated with frost heaves. I amused myself counting them when we drove on long trips. Thanks OS

  30. Although it does get cold early next week, but moderates towards the end of the week.
    Average temps are going up from this point forward until mid July, I’m by no means saying winter is over, just saying average temps r rising 🙂

    1. Well we are in the climatological basement in terms of temps right about now until the last week of the month before it starts to turn the corner.

      I am not sure I am in agreement about next week though. I believe the coldest of the days will be Thursday, with Friday the coldest morning.

      Peaking into the crystal ball, snowstorm threat around January 25.

      I believe the Euro has the right idea about the Tuesday/Wednesday threat being entirely too far offshore.

    1. Well we are probably entering a snowier period, but you have to look way out on the horizon to see a real dumpster coming our way.

      1. You are so right. I’ll believe it when I see it.

        The only thing I can say is with the cold it is more possible
        than without it. Brilliant, eh? 😀

  34. Back in NYC. Gray here but relatively nice to walk around the city for Mid January. Not much to add, but be weary of the ECMWF. Been moaning about it for 5 months and I think people are finally starting to listen. GFS hours 0-192 a better if imperfect bet right now. Lost out on my hedged bet of a 3″ type event this weekend. No surprise there I guess. Next potential winter weather event if I had to guess, weekend of the 25th.

  36. From NWS service re: tuesday/Wednesday next week:

    A COASTAL
    STORM TUE/EARLY WED LIKELY JUST GRAZES OR MISSES US…BUT A MORE
    SIGNIFICANT IMPACT CAN/T BE RULED OUT. AN ARCTIC OUTBREAK WILL
    LIKELY FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK.

    THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS/ENSEMBLES AT THIS POINT SHOW A MISS OR GLANCING BLOW. THE POSSIBLE EVENT IS STILL 5 DAYS OUT…SO ITS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM MAY COME CLOSER TO US AND RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. AT THIS POINT…ODDS FAVOR A GLANCING BLOW OR A MISS …BUT STILL NEED TO LEAVE THE DOOR OPEN TO A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT. ITS ALSO VERY IMPORTANT NOT TO JUMP ON 1 OR 2 OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS…BUT LOOK MORE AT THE ENSEMBLES AND CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS AT THIS POINT.

  37. From DT:

    https://fbcdn-sphotos-e-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn1/1525686_633576273356301_8376503_n.jpg

    Wxrisk.com
    MORE ON SEVERE ARCTIC BLAST #4 ……. COMING LAST WEEK OF JAN… the 12Z EURO ENSEMBLE is MUCH colder than the regular r or operational run..

    This is not unheard of but it is somewhat unusual. Remember that the ensemble consist of a MEAN or average of ensemble spread.

    With the GFS there are 21 individual members in the GFS ensemble …20 in the CMC and 51 in the Euro. So Lets say you have a regular or operational model run which shows something really extreme or severe… such as a severe cold arctic outbreak OR a big East Coast snowstorm or a big hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico.

    When you compare that solution to the but the ensembles … the extreme event on the ensembles is often much weaker in its appearance.

    In this particular case however the signal is so strong from the European ensemble mean that it actually has the polar vortex much stronger and much deeper than it does on the operational run!@!!

    And it’s also further south … Even further south then it was on January 5-6-7 arctic air mass outbreak. The image on the right hand side shows the 850 temperatures which represents the cold air 1 mile above the ground and we use these temperatures to figure out what the surface temperatures will be.

    Keep in mind that in late January it is the coldest time of year so if your 860 mb temperature anomalies are -14 or -16c … which is -16 to -24 F BELOW NORMAL you are talking some extreme cold air

  39. 99F at 10am in Melbourne. One last day today above 100F ……. thank goodness for the players and the fans watching.

    I’ve been reading online what the players have been experiencing and it sounds miserable.

    What interests me is where the heat is and where the rain is. In the center of Australia is Alice Springs. Its usually hot and dry there. Currently, its 72F, high humidity and rain. And the intense heat is in southern Australia, at a latitude of about 35-38 south, about comparable to say central Virginia.

  40. If the Patriots ever somehow won this game against denver, we might go down to NYC the week prior to Super Bowl just to represent and walk around 🙂

    If they don’t win, then we will stay home
    Go Patriots!!

    1. The Pats will have to pull a rabbit out of a hat … which they are capable of … but they are up against it for sure.

        1. John, I’m with you.

          Of course they have a chance, a really good one at that.
          All they have to do is get that pork chop Manning to piss down his leg and they’re in business. 😀

          1. I’m not sure anyone said they did not have a chance, but they are underdogs for a reason and they will need a real game … not one where they get behind again by 3 touchdowns.

            1. Well automatic 3 on the spread since Denver is home. I think the total spread was like 6 and now I believe it’s 4.5. So pats underdogs by 1.5, that’s not giving Denver the favorite a heck of alot of points. Pats have great chance as well as Denver but nobody is giving pats a chance out there and that spells trouble for Denver. Should be a good one. Bud lights for all after the game, ok manning.

  42. OS,

    That guy is in high school and writes a good blog. No hype just the facts the way he sees it. Thanks for sharing.

  45. I dont have the data in front of me, but as I recall from looking at it last night …..

    Logan’s avg temp for Janaury has actually recovered from the beginning month cold to currently be above normal for the month.

    Most of the 16 days of the month have had double digit departure from normal temps, the month certainly has either been very cold or mild.

  46. I wonder if before this next cold shot of weather ends, there’s opportunity for a little snow in areas along the deep southeast US coast that rarely see any.

    Looks like a few of the disturbances rounding the trof go pretty far south and may have cold enough air to work with.

    Places such as Jacksonville, FL, coastal Georgia, coastal Carolinas ??????

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