7:42AM
It’s getting simple. Widespread upper level low pressure will dominate eastern Canada extending into the northeastern US starting in a few days and lasting for quite a while. Transitioning out of the current mild spell and toward that renewed cold pattern with a few disturbances passing through this coming weekend – none of them significant. Will keep an eye on the colder pattern next week for snow threats but it looks largely dry. Hints in the medium range at a snow threat late next week, and before that the midweek threat should be offshore and not an impact. Again the main story will become the cold air.
Forecast for southeastern New England…
TODAY: Patchy fog & low clouds early, then sunshine & a few clouds remainder of the day. Highs in the 40s. Wind SW up to 10 MPH.
TONIGHT: Clouds return. Lows around 25-35 valleys to South Coast. Wind light variable.
SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Periods of snow/mix showers inland and rain showers coast. No snow accumulation. Highs around 40. Wind variable 5-15 MPH.
SATURDAY NIGHT: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow or rain showers early. Watch for icy patches on the ground later at night. Lows in the 20s. Wind W 5-15 MPH.
SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Highs in the 30s. Wind W 10-20 MPH with higher gusts.
MONDAY – MLK JR DAY: Mostly sunny. Low 20. High 35.
TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 10. High 20.
WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 5. High 18.
THURSDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 0. High 15.
FRIDAY: Increasing clouds. Low -5. High 18.
Wow–I’ve been first a couple of times lately. Thanks TK and thanks, Vicki and Sue for pushing that Saturday storm away; it’s really is amazing what hair dryers can do.
😀
Look at Friday night low!!
Friday night as in tonight or next week.
Low as in storm system or Low Temperature? 😀
You got me. 😀
Not impressed with ANYTHING weatherwise at the moment.
Let’s see IF that changes.
Agree 🙂
IF there is storminess that develops along the east coast following the cold air invasion, i could easily see storms get shunted south and the mid atlantic region getting in on the snow while we remain cold and dry.
All depends on where the PV sets up.
Very true, but you have to know that it will NOT, NOT, NOT
set up shop in a position that will favor storminess here.
No way. 😀
I was referencing the low for next Friday that TK posted -5
Oh, I was so bland, I missed that.
He meant at Woburn, Not Boston. 😀 😀 😀
Average for area… 🙂
Just busting chops. 😀 😀 😀
Will I get under the -1.7 I reached with the last cold snap?
Anyone notice the 12Z nam for sat? Also a question regarding which temps to look at to best determine whether or not it will snow or rain. In the past I would look at the 850 temps which I believe is close to the surface and the 500 thickness to see the temps higher up. Both look cold enough for snow sat, but I noticed TK mention mix or rain. Thanks for the explanation in advance.
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=033&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_033_1000_500_thick.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=1000_500_thick&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M
Go for…
There are many factors to consider when calling for rain, snow or mix.
One is the temperatures at 850MB, or “approximately” 5,000 feet up in
the atmosphere. We like that to be -3C or less, however, depending on
conditions it can snow with 850MB right at 0. So, generally we are looking
at 850MB temps to be LESS than 0C, with conditions of course.
Next is the 1000-500MB thickness. This is a measurement of how cold the lower levels of the atmosphere are. Generally speaking we like to be within
the 540 line, however, once again it can snow with thicknesses above that
depending on conditions.
OF course, we still have to look at surface temperatures. Doesn’t do much good if thicknesses are fine and 850mb temperatures are fine IF the surface temperature is 45. In the case for Saturday, TK indicated that the temp
would be around 40 Degrees or so.
There is still another factor, precipitation intensity.
With conditions on Saturday, were it to come down hard, NO QUESTION it
would be ALL in the form of SNOW. BUT since temperatures at the surface
are very marginal, it is likely to Rain or Mix when it comes down a little harder
and possibly straight snow during periods IF it comes down hard enough.
There are other thicknesses that are also used, such as:
1000-850hPa
1000 – 700hPa
850-700hPa
850-500hPa
And when it is precipitating and Mets are Now Casting, they use the new
Doppler Di-Pol Radar.
Hope this helps. 😀
Thanks OS! That helps tremendously….how does one determine what the surface temps might be?
I’m not a Met, so I can’t give you a precise answer.
I use http://www.instantweathermaps.com
Where I can get charts showing the 2M temperature, which is the correct one to use for the surface temperature. There is an actual surface temperature chart, but in my opinion, that is useless.
But those are probably produced by some mathematical algorithms based from the 850MB temperatures.
BUT a rule of thumb and a “reasonable” approximation to the surface temperature is to take the 850MB temperature in Fahrenheit and add 27.5 (It warms approximately 5.5F each 1000 feet Or conversely it falls 5.5 F every 1000 feet rise in altitude. This is also known as the dry adiabatic lapse rate http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lapse_rate) to it to come
up with the surface temperature. It is NOT exact and that little formula will change based on whether it is clear or cloudy or precipitating as that changes the rate of change with altitude.
For example, let’s say the 850MB temperature is
-5C (23F). The we could “approximate” the surface temperature by adding 27.5 to it or 50.5. That works best under normal clear conditions. For tomorrow, probably can’t use the dry lapse rate, but closer to the saturated lapse rate of 3F per 1000 feet.
You get the idea.
You can also look at this:
http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/278/
Or this.
http://smittyswxupdate.blogspot.com/2011/06/use-850-mb-to-forecast-surface.html
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.php
Thanks OS!
Renewal cold? It’s 42 degrees out, and tomorrow gonna be in the 40’s too?
I have been wearing my light weight jacket for an entire week in the middle
of January!!! 😀 😀
And the kids have been riding there bikes everyday, my kids love riding bikes, and love roller blading, and football lol
Headline takes all into account. You stopped reading at Sunday… 🙂
Good morning everyone, as I look at models, I do not see any real snow events, it gets chilly but still no snow
Positive note: daylight is longer by 40 min’s already 🙂
It appears Tuesday is the beginning of the colder air, but after that temps moderate towards next weekend, it may be only a few degrees each day milder but it’s moderating, and while we are gaining 2 min’s of daylight per day, I’m not saying winters over yet, but it’s slowly changing, even now 🙂
When it gets to March we can start talking about Winter possibly being over,
Certainly NOT in mid-January and February.
And, even in March, we get some of our biggest Snow Storms.
(Sometimes even early April. 😀 :D)
No Winter is not over, NOT EVEN CLOSE.
Well said.
I don’t think of March as winter, ill be outside working, even after last yrs suprise mid march snowstorm, we were working a week after bc it melted so very quick. I go through this every year getting prepared to start in March, believe me there are comp out there now, there was only 1 yr it really got the better of me, that was 1996 almost 20 yrs ago, plus my pool goes up in mid April 🙂
Dec/Jan/Feb is off time, every single other month is work time 🙂
The snow last march, at least at my house stayed around a lot longer than any snow we had so far this winter
I was able to get 450 clients done out of 600 clients before April 1st last yr, the 150 clients were west and north and around Boston were held off till late March and early April, but I understand am
It doesn’t mean Winter is over. It just means people in your profession start the outside stuff like that while it is still Winter.
I have been in this business 24 years and the dates of the seasons still haven’t changed. 😉
Exactly 🙂
🙂
What would your high temp forecast be for Wed-Fri next week?
15-20, BUT not before we hit 45-50 today, and 40 tomorrow 🙂
February 2 is the climatological turning point of winter, which “ends” in late March.
I understand, but again I don’t think of dec as fall time just like I don’t think of March as winter, or Sept as summer, it seems to work for me 🙂
As we stand today, I am feeling pretty confident about my prediction of less than 6″ of snow.
If we don’t get any snow or very little snow out of the next couple weeks when conditions are forecast to be conducive for snow, then i will be joining your camp coastal.
Lol tk I know the seasons haven’t changed, it is just the profession, we r always ahead by 3-4 weeks ahead of actual season, if that makes any sense, but your right, the seasons haven’t changed lol 🙂 thanks tk 🙂
TK thanks for the update!!!
Air smells like spring again today. I think it is in part more the smell of the wet/thawed earth but I love it.
Anyone know why the squirrels are digging holes in my lawn?
They’re looking for their nuts! 😀
I’m going to look for my gun if they don’t stop — I agree with OS.
(ps – I dont own a gun so it might take some time to find it 😉 )
My wife won’t let me KILL them!!!!!!!!!!!
I can’t tell you how many I have trapped.
What do you do with them when you trap them?
I release them about a mile from the house. (Not even sure this is legal, but I do it anyway as I don’t want them around)
Nice – I am not a fan either but the chipmunks seem to do much more damage and those darned little buggers are cute. Wonder how smart squirrels are when it comes to returning “home”
NO, they’re just plain NUTS!
I HATE Squirrels.
Oh boy here we go again….
http://nation.time.com/2014/01/17/the-polar-vortex-is-probably-coming-back/?hpt=hp_t3
12Z GFS showing more precip for Sat…
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=027&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_027_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M
Here is the next two frames
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=030&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_030_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=033&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_033_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M
total precip for saturday per the 12z GFS
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=036&image=data%2Fgfs%2F12%2Fgfs_namer_036_precip_p24.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M
Yes and here is the total snowfall map for 48 hour period ending
12Z Sunday AM:
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014011712&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048
So it doesn’t matter if we get .25 inch, it won’t come down hard enough
to be all snow and/or stick. 😀
And here is the NAM snowfall map for same period:
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014011712&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=048
touche
Always the way, isn’t it.
Perhaps we get a “surprise” tomorrow? 😀
GFS sneezes at the snow chance for 1/25
Also shows temps moderate after next saturday, if we are to believe the GFS that far out
Winter is definitely not over. After the close of this month, we’ve got February to contend with, and then March. March is rarely spring-like around these parts, so I would not include it under spring. If anything, March and early April are frustrating to spring-lovers as they offer the promise of spring but no fulfillment. Sort of like unrequited love.
All this said, I agree with Charlie on the light/brightness factor. I notice it on my morning runs. And, despite it getting colder next week (at least we think it will), ice formation on ponds, lakes, and rivers will be harder to achieve than it was even 2 weeks ago. And, as we approach February and March snows (I do think we’ll get plenty more snow chances), daytime accumulation will be harder to achieve as well.
BTW, here is the 12Z GEM-REG (Canadian)
Notice that it shows RAIN for Boston with ZERO snow.
http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Boston&mod=gemreg&run=12&var=prcp&lang=en&map=us
This is a really nice graphic that this model provides. I love it.
If all goes well, we could see a touch of snow tomorrow. We shall see.
There will be snow showers in the air around these parts thats all you will see. No sticking around these parts.
Oh the irony of it all. Tomorrow might be our only shot at precip for a while during this colder period and its likely to be RAIN. Ughhh
Sad, isn’t it. Really sad.
Pattern of early 1979.
This is interesting…
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25771510
Very interesting Scott, thank you!
What was most interesting to me was the part about effects on other parts of the globe. One guy said when the jet stream changes configuration to allow really cold air into northern Europe, a counter effect is warming over Greenland. Does that mean it warms into North America too? I wonder
Patriots head out to Denver at 4pm
they should have gone out a few days ago to get use to the air, though denver is tring all it can to make it harder for the patriots. they should have gone to colorado and went to another field or something to practice out in the air. but no. they decided to wait till friday so they only have one practice before the game in the thin air. which is stupid.
Respectfully disagree 🙂
Matt, a couple more days in the thin air wont make a difference. It takes a lot longer for your body to get used to functioning with less oxygen, months, even years of intense training for your red blood cells to adapt to hold onto more oxygen. The one thing i will say is a couple more days would allow players to gauge their physical limitations and recognize certain signals in their bodies. Other than that, not much of a difference.
It seems to work that way doesn’t it most times.
scattered rain showers saturday afternoon
mid week storm out to sea. temps moderate into the 40s next weekend. mid atlantic gets some snow and rain
Weather in Denver is way too nice on Sunday (close to 60 and sunny). That will likely factor in to Denver’s win. Manning has no problem in weather like that. The Patriots, on the other hand, will not be able to resort to a running game. Without weapons/targets in the passing game, the Patriots’ offense is unlikely to be effective. Of course, I’m hoping for a miracle, but my prediction is: Denver 34, New England 17. This may be the only game this year in which the Patriots don’t really keep it close.
A couple of retorts…
1. What makes you think Manning will have a good game? Sure it is more
likely he craps his pants in bad weather, but he is very good at Sh**ting his
drawers in good weather as well. Look for Manning to throw at least 2
interceptions.
2. Why can’t the Patriots run? The thin air (what about rotation), the Denver
defense? give me a break.
3. The Patriots offense likely to be ineffective? huh? au contraire my friend.
The Pat’s offense will light up Denver. I mean LIGHT EM UP! Mark my
words.
The only way Denver wins is for Manning to have the game of his life.
My Prediction:
Pats 42
Denver 28
The Pats game plan should be and i think will be, to try and keep manning off the field. To do that, they need to control the clock and they NEED to run the ball. If Denver’s D stops them from doing that and they become predictable, all bets are off bc the Pats dont have the weapons to keep up with Manning. Even with a good defensive game plan against manning, he will still put up points.
With Denver’s defense, If need be, I think Tom can
still light him up with Edelman, Amendola, Vareen and now I think Dobson will be ready. He can do it. 😀
He can mix in Calle and Hooman.
I hope you’re right.
Manning has had his share of bad playoff performances, and I can’t stand him. But: 1. He’s got a better supporting cast; 2. He’s home. If only Amendola had caught the ball for a touchdown on the final drive against Miami in Week 16, the Patriots would be home, and that would give them a decisive edge. Pats don’t lose at home. And, weather tends to be worse at Foxboro. Alas, they’re on the road, in a place they’ve had a very poor record over the years.
We’ll see, OS.
Hmmm, Amendola not catching a would be clutch pass late in that game, sounds like someone else we know… 🙂 Turned out to be a pretty even swap
The fact that the Pat’s have had a history of piss-poor
performances at Denver has me concerned, but I think
this is the year they overcome that. 😀
Why are there no storms even on the horizon? With this pattern setting up there should be east coast storm development. Models say no. Do we think they are missing something?
Fast northern stream flow around the PV. Lack of southern stream energy/moisture. The very dry southwestern US is starting to play a role in lack of storm development further east.
Well talk about Debbie Downer! 😀
I guess that sums it up well.
Today’s 12Z GEM-GLB (Canadian Global Product) has a very small
snow accumulation for Boston on 1/21,1/24 and 1/27:
http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Boston&mod=gemglb&run=12&var=prcp&lang=en&map=us
Really a nice day today
Temp is 46.1
Brady voted most hated QB – did someone already say that? Seriously? I cannot imagine what anyone sees not to like – and I am not saying that because he is the pats QB. He is just an all around good person. Never trash talks. Keeps his focus on the game. Doesn’t make excuses. Great family man. Jealous much !!!
Agree, agree, agree! Hated by whom? Fans? Players? In either case, it borders on insanity to vote him Brady the most hated QB. He’s a great QB, a true team leader, intelligent, and a good person. What’s not to like? As you pointed out, it’s all about jealousy.
Payton is most liked……
Jeoulousy and winning, especially for a decade in a half now,
People always “hate” winners.
It’s driven by jealousy.
I’d rather be happy for someone who is successful in both their profession and their personal life. Brady is a great example of both.
Ain’t that the truth – the absolute truth!
Some people here not giving pats a chance at all. I find it funny. The pats have as much chance to win Sunday as does Denver. Denver is s good team real good, you all know I picked them to go all the way. But going w pats. Something tells me they get the job done without trouble doing it.
Game will be close. And in a close game always take Brady. But I really don’t know who is going to win.
Hoping you, John, and OS are right!
Game should be great to watch regardless of the outcome.
So many National pundits think that the Patriots have no chance!
Time to prove them wrong!
I have said before that I much prefer when the pats are the underdogs – and no it doesn’t happen much – but even within the game. I do not care what spreads are, what experts say, what anyone else thinks — they’d be fools if they thought they could predict what the pats will do. Win or lose they have come much further than most expected……including until I screwed my head back on right 🙂
I agree totally 100%. 😀
You agree that my head was unscrewed or the other part 😉
The other part, of course!!!! 😀
But of course 😆
I hope your right hadi 🙂
Pats have to run the ball, if they can’t it could spell problems.
Don’t read too much into details on surface charts beyond Tuesday. Pay attention to the general pattern. The models (GFS, Euro, and others) will have trouble deciding which shortwaves to develop more and which ones to leave alone. It happens every time we enter this pattern. A good example of this is the snowstorm on yesterday’s 12z ECMWF for the 25th, and today’s 12z run has a threat a few days earlier with nothing much for the 25th.
BZ has snow for thursday? huh?
Euro shows about .30 for Thursday and very cold temps.
The euro for me right now is like having a girlfriend who has cheated on u in the past. You decide to stay together and work it out, buuut its always in the back of ur mind.
Lol
wayyyyy funny!!
I’m too talented to even comprehend what that must feel like. 🙂
😆
pats game is going to be a close one first half pats will go out shooting first time to try and get the first points, then establish the running game to open up the passing game in the second half. but balanced., not going to post any numbers because the last time i did that we lost. the score was the exact opposite. i hope they kick off first.
Please feel free to post a huge score for Denver 😉
TEST POST
DENVER: 24
This site would NOT accept a font size within the
post. Too bad. 😀
Hahahahahaha
I tried to post a HUGE Denver score
like in font size=50!!
That’s why I’m laughing. I figured that is what you tried. You get an A++ for effort and creativity.
No one of course can predict the outcome of a game with certaintity, but I think the Patriots best chance is to dissect the opponent and take advantage of glaring and not so glaring weaknesses. A glaring weakness may be that Harris is out for the season. A not so glaring weakness, to the average fan, is that Denver is one of the worst on special teams. I would not be surprised to see BB take full advantage of the latter.
Look at this 18Z NAM simulated radar for 10AM tomorrow:
http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014011718&time=INSTANT&var=REFC&hour=020
2M temperatures in the mid to upper 30’s at this time.
850MB temps about -5C
1000-500MB thickness about 530
Hmmm
Me thinks it “may” just be snowing tomorrow AM.
Of course just when I think that, it will be raining. 😀 😀
Then again, perhaps not.
Take a look at this 4KM WRF model output of the freezing levels at
10AM tomorrow:
http://i.imgur.com/QJJfQE2.jpg
For the Boston area, the freezing level is progged to be between 1200
and 2400 feet. Unless it’s REALLY coming down, that is enough
room to allow for significant if Not total melting of any snow flakes.
(That spells RAIN!)
Even though all other parameters look good for snow.
I just found this handy little tool. Nice to have. 😀
Eight franchise execs were asked if they would take Brady or manning. Years ago, it was 4-4. Now 7-1 Brady. Ok I’ll stop talking about football. Sorry. I’m a bit excited 🙂
Thanks TK! Do you think that there will be enough snow accumulation for it to impact the roads Monday morning? Or for there to be shoveling?
Only if we happen to get an organized line of snow showers or a few isolated squalls. Don’t think so though.
This is not good!
California Gov. Jerry Brown on Friday declared a drought emergency for the state, saying it is facing “perhaps the worst drought that California has ever seen since records (began) about 100 years ago.
My husband was talking to his brother. He lives in Moraga. Just outside of San Francisco. It is not good at all….esp with fire season
BIL says worst drought in recorded history for area. Tax has been placed on water. Yet no desalinization. Go figure.
Just sat out for about an hour while mac grilled. Couldn’t get the four seasons song out of my mind …..Oh what a night….late December back in 63….
No jacket. Just a heavy sweatshirt. The stars are amazing. Sure does not feel like 33
for those who have patriot haters and say that the pats have cheated and everything and thats why they are good. hear is what happened when john was QB in Denver. http://boston.cbslocal.com/2014/01/17/barstool-sports-jerry-thornton-remember-when-denver-cheated/
California’s really going through a rough time. Worst drought in 100 years. Remember this past summer’s wildfires at Yosemite. Now, wildfires are appearing in many places, and it’s not even spring or summer.
Hopefully the fact that almost no-one nationally is giving the Patriots a chance (and yes, this includes me) motivates this very likable team. Obviously, I am rooting for the Patriots. Several times, they proved me wrong this year, and I hope they continue to prove me wrong. I just don’t have a good feeling about Sunday, given the venue and noise level, the weather, and the fact that the Broncos lost to the Patriots in an embarrassing way earlier this season. I believe the latter will motivate the Broncos.
I am a huge fan of your posts Joshua but. PLEASE NO NEGATIVITY RE SUNDAY. Only positive thoughts. Pahhhhleeeeezzzzzz
OK! I’ll stay away from the topic, except to say GO PATRIOTS!
Hahahaha, works for me. That’s positive
And all the negative talk by the world this week saying the team has no shot motivates the pats.
John many were negative in the fall….you included. Looks as if it did in fact motivate.
Vicki I was not negative I was speaking the truth at that time. I’m a huge fan and if they struggle I’m not going to suger coat it. They have had struggled and have done a good job to overcome them.
Sort of but then many of us were guilty.
Adding. They actually have not struggled. That’s what so many didnt get. Many here included …you and I among them. Maybe TK and my son in law two of the few who were not. They simply persevered.
Huh I watched nfl live etc.. Today and most pundits have the pats winning. So I think you all are referencing more the fans and some few pundits bc everything I see has the Pats winning.
we are -6 points
That’s Vegas
Nah. They are split – not Vegas. The point is that it simply does not matter. Maybe with another team it would but this team, win or lose, is completely unpredictable.
patriot pump up video good music and good highlights. Ihttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N4dhqLvyDM8
Did it go back to six. Though it was 4.5
It’s 4.5 right now, was 6 last Mon
I think it just depends on what type of fan you are. I’ve always loved this team since 1985, it’s my favorite as you all know outa the 4 pro sports teams. I’m what you call a honk Patriot fan, I always believe, I always think they have a chance. Im hearing some saying the Patriots have no chance, and some that think the broncos will choke.
Go Patriots,, 1 win from Superbowl #8 🙂 goodnight
Not sure what honk fan means. When you honk your horn to let others know you are a fan?
Lol Vicki! That sounds about right to me!
Lol it just means a homer, or a diehard 🙂
Drought monitor before the rain Wednesday. It was already getting better but still there.
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/Home/RegionalDroughtMonitor.aspx?northeast
TK, what do you think we get the water temperature down east of Boston with the next cold snap. Currently 39.4. Think we can shave a couple of that?
I am certanly not TK, but if it stays well below normal for the rest of the month as Pete has been saying on air, the water temp should easily coast down at least a couple more degrees to around 36 or 37F which is the average lowest for Boston Buoy anyway. 🙂
* certainly (sp.)
I’ll take a 37.
One year down here, perhaps in the 2002-2006 stretch, there was a cold enough January where the inner harbors had a lot of ice in them (its tough to get a solid cover with a 9 ft tidal range) and from the beach to about the end of jetties, there was some slush puppy water.
I can’t remember the year either. The river had frozen all through Humarock. All of the pilons (sp) where boats dock were literally pushed up out of the river bottom at the bridge in Humarock. My youngest thinks it was dec 2005-jan 2006. A guess
Well that bodes well for Feb. We are missing on a nice little storm today. But euro holds out hope for Friday for a moderate event. Euro led the way with today’s event so maybe something can happen on Friday.
It is interesting the the EURO’s hanging on to that late week event. Which model blinks first ?
There are a few lightning strikes with that low pressure area over the fish. I don’t put much stock with that storm threat late next week but one thing that looks certain is the cold will be back and say goodbye to 50 degree plus temperatures for a while.
Goodbye 50F ….. 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁 🙁
Light rain.
Could be an interesting radar watching morning.
NWS gotten more bullish on their snowfall expectations N and W.
Areas north of the pike looking they could have a level 1 snow event ( Coating to 4 inches) With some of the lightning strikes over the Atlantic the low pressure area is showing some signs of stregthening but doesn’t get going until its past us.
Tom I think it was 2003 with those big chunks of ice in the inner harbor. I am not buying the EURO for later next week. I think the cold dry airmass will keep that low pressure center over the fish. I hope I am wrong.
Rain has begun here, temp is 36.5 degrees 🙂
light snow here in Holden. Coating
In Foxboro, it’s raining here as well, car temp says 35 degrees
T-minus 34hrs
Go Patriots!!
Pete was saying last week that the cold coming In next week will will push any snow events out of here.
Trying very hard to change to snow in wayland.
January??? Folks golfing at sandy burr wayland. Flags are still in.
I saw people golfing at Chimowa golf course yesterday here in na
To husbands knowledge sandy burr not open this time of yr. IMHO it’ll ruin course. Didn’t look like temporary greens but not positive in that
Hey Charlie did you hear that thunder? Thunder in Mansfield folks
Crap! No I didn’t but I’m driving
I heard it! I was like, no way that’s thunder!
I thought a truck hit my house
Wow. And very cool
Snow coating everything but rd in Sudbury. River looking very good. Level where it would be considered good for time of year. SIL said same for where it runs behind his office bldg
Some very heavy rain in Sharon, starting to mix with huge snowflakes.
Saw a graphic on NWS Boston fb page last night saying while there’s no denying the arctic air is coming, the lack of snow cover in parts of new england and the northeast, the cold air will have less of an impact as last time when we had a deep snowpack. It will still be cold, but the difference between records broken and just downright cold.
Elevated convection is pretty potent. I’m impressed. Beware of some positive lightning strikes south of Boston to the Boston area this hour, maybe a bit north of Boston not long from now.
In Foxboro it’s mainly rain w/ a few snowflakes mixing in, temp is 35
Absolutely huge flakes here. Heavy enough that everything is now covered and totally white. Kids heading out to play……by kids I meant 28 yr old and his 6 yr old son
You’re experiencing the cold-air-coming-from-above effect. 🙂
Fascinating. Looks beautiful.
Snowing heavily in Pelham, NH, 32.7 degrees with about a half inch on the ground. The precip seems to be moving south to north with very little easterly movement. Is there a chance the Merrimack Valley could see a couple inches of snow?
I think the valley itself stands less chance and elevated areas around it have a better shot of picking up accumulation, but some of that intensity would help. Granted it is already colder there, so they won’t need as much “help” .. but I can see up to a 2+ inches somewhere around there if everything comes together just right in the next few hours.
Thanks for the update, we are up to about 1.5 inches. I am at 350 feet and it is still 32.7 degrees.
.23 so far
Tk snow predication for Woburn?
Quick 1/2 to 1 inch on unpaved surfaces through 1PM. I think it tapers off after that a little bit.
Thanks. It is POURING snow in west Woburn. So much for no snow….blown forecast for most stations.
3.5 inches in Woburn and one of my worst forecasts in a few years.
Go me! 🙂
Mix of rain and snow in West Roxbury.
It’s been snowing quite nicely here in westboro with big wet flakes and 2 inches of packed snow has fallen
Snowing moderately in Sudbury – very picturesque – big flakes and little or no wind. Everything covered. We have about 1 inch of heavy, wet snow.
What? Did we holster our hair dryers too soon. Its very pretty…….please make it stop 🙁
The worst of this will probably be done with in an hour or so.
Phew. We don’t have to leave till 2:30. Tx TK
Solid moderate snow in Woburn – starting to cover unpaved ground.
I remember several days ago crawling out on a limb to forecast a chance of snow today when other outlets had “mostly sunny” on their day 5 or 6 forecast. That made me nervous at the time. The forecast was arrived at based on what I thought model error was at the time. It’s an example of knowing when to follow guidance and when to abandon it.
Huge flakes in North Attleboro now, temp down to 34.5.
Featherflakes. Lots of flakes stuck together. Perfect conditions.
Biggest snowflakes ive ever seen
I just wrote a FB post about that on my regular FB page:
“OMG those are the biggest snowflakes I have ever seen!” .. Before you say that, you’re looking at lots of snowflakes stuck together. Perfect conditions: marginal temperatures allowing wet flakes to stick to each other on the way down, and little wind to break them back apart. Classic feather flakes in much of eastern MA right now. Enjoy the view because it won’t last that long.
6 yr old grandson says they look like fairies.
Rain has changed to mostly wet snow, no accumulations yet
Everything (including side roads) covered in Natick. Big flakes.
wow…look at the heavy echos to the south
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=box&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no
went outsdie tried to open my mouth and eat the snow the flakes are bigger than my mouth 😉 visibilites less than a half mile. everything coated it took 5 minutes to do so. 32 degrees here boarderline
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/nerfc/graphics/snowmaps/sd1_today.jpg
Snow cover
In view of snow we now have with everything having a solid cover, I’d say that is outdated 🙂
Everything covered here now including my road. dp dropped to 31 also.
Snowing big fat flakes here in Quincy.
yeah, giant flakes here too. Coming up on 2″
Still rain here in Hingham….
That heavier precip is heading your way.
🙂 Radar is impressive
You are seeing the deformation zone between snow secondary to evaporational cooling from above and rain to the south. All of this will be out of here within an hour but still very impressive.
Picked up a half inch, snow has stopped
Still snowing in Brighton! Everything’s covered, including the roads and my satellite dish! 🙁 Guess I won’t be watching the end of “The Departed”! and it’s such a good movie.
Back to rain, ended up with about 3 quarters of an inch, been out and main roads r good, back roads r slushy but there Mekong ad well, suprise suprise
Coating the ground up where I am in CT with some big flakes with a moderate burst of snow. Finally looking like winter.
It’s been snowing pretty hard in Quincy for almost an hour. Everything covered except roads but getting there.
4.5 inches as of 1:30!!
Wow
I’d say three here. Heavy too. Weighing down some of the bushes.
Started to come down here about 10 minutes ago…lawn already covered..also sidewalks. Street getting covered too except where the car tracks are…very pretty.
Still snowing moderately in Sharon but slowing down, flakes are smaller, solid inch
The snow has really piled up on branches and it’s slipping off the trees in giant bunches
Snow slowing down here now coming down lightly but came down pretty good for a little and got half an inch.
Pouring here. 🙂 41F in fact.
Glad everyone is getting decent snow. Living through various webcams. 🙂
Slowing down here. Grandson changed from calling tha flakes faeries to cotton balls. The sure looked like cotton balls. Beautiful
3.25″ here.
Big flakes were just coming down here as it lasted 5 minutes. Looks like the sun is trying to come out. We had a decent slug of rain here today.
I realized I took my initial measurements in a slightly covered area next to the side of the house. Just took a measurement more out in the open in 5 different locations with an average of about 6 inches!
Boy oh boy was that more than the “less than 1 inch” forecast…but it is pretty much tapering off now
If your north and west of the city it’s not really surprise snow as accumulation was expected there. This could have been a nice little storm for most with probably 6 inch amounts but the warmer air seems to be hanging a tad longer. Earlier in the week it was like a 50/50 shot of maybe getting an event for most but as time went on it became clear that boston/ south and others dodge a bullet. I believe things will be getting very active real soon with the cold air knocking and not going any where. Last winter the storms came in February and early march and I’m guessing it will happen again – no snow in march as that was part of my winter prediction. But in saying that with some chatter on a possible snow event next Friday night/ Saturday Pete seems to think the cold will push the storm out, time will tell.
John I think flurries were expected. Not 4-6. Five headline is snow surprise
No, it was a big surprise.
The forecast was terrible and only adjusted at the last minute, by then being useful to people that maybe had just woken up, not the ones that were already going about their plans. 😉
Again Harvey mentioned this chance a couple times including last night.
Harvey did not have these amounts. Nobody did. We had the snow threat, just not the scope of it. I knew that we could see snow today 6 days ago but I would not have tried to call amounts then, and even last night I was minor at best and Harvey’s top numbers were 2-4 in the hills/mountains of southwestern NH. He’ll be the first to say that this forecast did not verify as expected.
here comes another “batch”
Easily 4+” in west Woburn. Not only do I have to shovel but roof rake too. I’m moving south.
You got about 1 inch more there than I had here. Elevation.
I didn’t measure but looked like 4-5. As large as the flakes were that could be 3standing on top of each other :)Sanders out in Framingham.
You’ll probably see those sanders out and about tonight with the projected tempature drop this evening.
Yep. I’m a bit worried about drive home.
Just take it slow and you will be fine.
Vicki I respectfully disagree as I’ve been saying all week there was a watcher. As the week progressed it became clear that southern sections would not see anything big there was the chance that northern, western and the mountain area still had a decent shot at a minor to moderate snow event in those sections. Enjoy the snow, take care.
John I’m west of Boston. We didnt expect a thing. http://m.wcvb.com/weather/bundle-up-another-round-of-cold-is-on-the-way/-/17428424/23995356/-/11cnjd6z/-/index.html
Vicki there is no right or wrong here. Enjoy the snow. Put some ice melt down as it may freeze up.
Yep
Wow! Once again we get accumulating snow that is very localized and not region wide. 3rd time this winter. Like TK, I mentioned we both had the idea of something for today, but truthfully by Thursday I had abandoned the idea of accumulations. Funny thing is NWS jumped on the idea yesterday but in western ma, where we have received about a 1/2″
Please no one chime in that the ECMWF had this set up a week ago, because it didn’t. It might have spit out some QPF but from a very different storm evolution. Still like the idea of something around 1/25.
What is your thoughts on Pete b saying he thinks the cold will push that snow threat out. Not sure I get that.
Shoveled a sloppy 2.5″ in mu driveway in sharon, got to my moms in attleboro and its raining with just a coating of snow
Less out thru hopkinton and Milford. Milford dropped enough salt that it elevates the car.
Elevation depended with this snow. There are radar estimates north of where I am of around 6 inches in the northwest hills of CT. Here only a half an inch but it came down pretty hard for about 15 20 minutes just like a thunderstorm in the summer.
Snow stopped at 2:30 but has been snowing moderately again since 3:15 ish
What’s your location.
Westborough, about 10 miles due east of Worcester
Cool, enjoy the snow.
Still light to moderate snow here too in Holden. At 5″ even now. Might make 6″ by the look of the radar before this is over.
Absolutely horrendous forecast on my part.
I would say my worst in 2 years. 🙂
Excellent…………………….. 😛
We’ll take it!
For John… The reasoning Pete was using is simple. Too much southward push of the PV, too much westerly wind at steering level, storm that tries to form goes straight east and out to sea and can’t turn northward until it’s hundreds of miles out there. That was his mode of thinking.
I just shoveled out…is the accumulating snow over?
Yes
No snow removal here 🙂 🙂
I just hope the skies dont suddenly clear quickly in SE Mass because the roads and walkways are still quite damp.
Probably going to have to lower high temps tomorrow a few degrees due to snow cover ???
That was interesting. Only measured 1.5 inch in yard, on car and in street
My computer would not boot today. TOOK ME 2 HOURS to find
The recovery cd. ALMOST done. Windows loading up.
We shall see what I end up with.
I never went out as I am home with a flu 🙁
Feel better Hadi !!
Hope you feel better.
I will say that was the most substantial 1.5 inche of snow I have ever seen.
Hope u feel better hadi, that sucks
Oh no! Feel better!
Computer operational. I have much to re-install, but at least I am connected to
the internet.
I still don’t know what happened.
Hello!! What a little suprise
Here are some of the totals in my area: 2.0 Foxboro, 1.3 N.Attleboro, Attleboro (seekonk line) less than a half inch.
GO PATRIOTS!!! Less than 24hrs!!! 🙂
Still snowing/raining uxbridge.
Hadi so sorry you are not feeling well. You have had a tough few weeks illness wise on too of your back. Feel better soon
What a nice surprise today….nothing I like more than surprise snow…doesn’t seem to happen as much as when I was kid but then again I wasn’t really paying attention… got an even 5″ up here in Grovel and…feels like winter again
It’s been a rough couple months to say the least 🙂
🙁
Sorry Hadi….I hope you feel better soon!
Hadi, just read you have the flu!! Ugh!!!
Got about 2-3″ just to the east of me by about 5-6 mile 7.5″. incredible, that in that short of a distance there can that much of a difference.
Hadi feel better.
As one of our meteorologist here in CT put it this was a sneaky storm. Most of CT saw nothing. I had an inch and half but go up in the northwest hills of CT 6-10 inches fell. The forecast last night was coating to 2 inches for that area. If only that heavier snow band came a little further south.
Blog updated!