The Week Ahead

377 Comments

12:12AM

Certainty: cold.

Uncertainty: snow.

A broad upper level low spinning around eastern Canada and poking spokes into the northeastern US will deliver plenty of cold air this week, starting with the passage of an Arctic cold front Monday. As this front settles just south of New England, a wave of low pressure is expected to develop on it and pass south and east of the region Tuesday night, bringing a period of snow. What is still unclear is how much snow will fall from this. Right now, leaning toward a light amount north and west of Boston and a moderate amount to the southeast, dry and fluffy, with a gusty wind. Another threat may come along around Thursday but at the moment this is looking weaker and further south. But computer models have trouble with such things around a broad trough, struggling with timing and development, so “monitor mode” will be essential. It may briefly moderate next weekend ahead of yet another push of Arctic air.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

OVERNIGHT: Mostly cloudy. Lows around 30. Wind SW 5-15 MPH.

MONDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of rain or snow showers first half of the afternoon, snow showers and isolated snow squalls second half of the afternoon. Highs in the 30s, falling into the 20s late in the day. Wind SW 10-20 MPH shifting to NW late in the day.

MONDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with isolated snow squalls. Lows 10-15. Wind NW 15-25 MPH. Wind chills around zero at times.

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow mainly afternoon and night with up to a few inches north and west of Boston and several inches possible from Boston southeastward. Highs 15-20. Wind N 15-25 MPH and gusty.

WEDNESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 0. High 15.

THURSDAY: Mostly cloudy. Low 4. High 18.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 8. High 24.

SATURDAY: Partly sunny. Low 14. High 34.

SUNDAY: Variably cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 19. High 32.

377 thoughts on “The Week Ahead”

  2. Also, I love your Certainty and Uncertainty. Hahaha I wish all my days were set up like that. With a chart that listed what the Certainty and Uncertainty was. 😛

  3. Thanks TK.
    Winter Storm Watches up for parts of southeastern new england. Got to watch this one with any slight shift could make a big difference when it comes to snowfall amounts.

  5. Todd on BZ:
    1-2″ west and north of Boston,
    2-4″ maybe into Boston, but more like south shore and upper Cape,
    4-6+” along the Cape.

  8. With the cold temps in place there should be a fluff factor here and with a powdry snow it will accumulate a lot quicker especially areas where those heavier banding sets up shop. If this trend continues with the storm coming closer I would expect more areas of SNE to be under some sort of winter weather alert.

  10. I believe for the storm on the 3rd of January the snow ratios were in the 15:1 -30:1 range. I know Boston had 15.1 inches of snow with that event. One thing I have noticed with that snow event and the two in December is how cold it was for them with temps in the teens and single digits.

  12. I thought this artic front was driving these storms away. Curious how we went from that to multiple snow events? Thanks.

  15. The storm track shifted and is now coming closer to have more of an impact. As I have said many times on the blog whenever there is low pressure on the east coast it needs to be watched. Now any shift in track will make a big difference when it comes to snowfall across SNE. Jackpot looks to be eastern and southeastern parts of SNE.

  18. Just reading the discussion out of Upton, NY NWS service with the cold air in snow ratios could be on the order of 20:1 or greater. What’s interesting is they said even the drier NAM model produces advisory level snows on the coast.
    As you mentioned AceMaster SREF model being real aggressive.

    1. Yeah, not sure how good that model is or if any other short range models are also showing that much. Latest GFS and NAM are producing 6-10.” Wish the euro was more on board but lets be honest, that boat never set sail

      1. I don’t know what’s gone wrong with Euro … seems out-to-lunch more often than not lately or maybe just my perception.

  19. Low looks to track just southeast of the benchmark 40N 70W as indicated by NWS out of Upton, NY its deepning on approach just southeast of the benchmark between 994-999 mbs. Its not the strongest of low pressure systems ever to form on the coast but with pressure levels in that range certainly looking at a plowable amount of snow for SNE as long as it tracks in that direction. I would not be surprised if there is a shift in track in either direction.

  22. Coastal I think 12+ inches will be the name of the game from Boston south, near Blizzard conditions likely

  24. Just heard BB’s press conference. I was shocked to hear him talk about Welker’s hit on Talib. I agree it was a cheap hit, but surprised BB went out of his way to talk about it specifically. Out of character for him but kinda refreshing to hear his true feelings and actually express a normal human response

  27. 06GFS gives Boston .4 qpf. With 15 to 20:1 snow ratios that is still 6-8 inches of snow. The trend has definitely been for more with each run.

  28. Hello,

    I’m back, at least temporarily. Been having big time trouble with my computer.
    Something was corrupt in the boot sector of the hard drive, so computer would not
    boot up. I did a complete recovery and re-installed a bunch of stuff and it happened again.

    I’ve got it back up, but am leaving it on until I can get a copy of some files from work
    tomorrow.

    And I missed out on all of the discussions about the snow on Saturday.

    But I’m hear for the discussion of Tuesday’s snow.

    Based on the performance of the NAM on the 1/3 event, I would NOT totally
    dismiss the snowfall it is predicting for Tuesday.

    This really looks like 12+ inches for the Boston Area.
    The 1/3 event had 26-30:1 for the ratio. This time probably more like 20:1.

    We shall see. It will be interesting to see what the 12Z Euro has to say and it’s
    resultant qpf.

  30. Old Salty good to have you back. As I posted earlier from the NWS out of Upton, NY there thinking snowfall ratios could be greater than 20:1. With the snow powdry in nature it will accumulate pretty quickly especially in areas where heavier bands set up shop.
    Looking like a level 2 snowfall (5-10 inch range) event but areas south of Boston could be looking at a level 3 snowfall(10-20 inch range)

  31. But if it shifts than higher amounts towards boston north and west. Impact Tuesday night and possibly Wednesday am.

  33. John your exactly right and I would make that adjustment. My thinking is the low tracks a little south and east of the benchmark but close enough to give all of SNE an accumulating snow. The low tracks to the benchmark those higher totals will shift further north and west.

    1. JJ take a look at that SREF. SREF is usually pretty decent. It has big time snow
      extending well to the North and West. Looks like we get another SNEAK O RAMA!!

  34. Old Salty two sneakorama’s I wouldn’t mind in less than a week. I just hope this time I could get into the action unlike Saturday where the heavy stuff fell north of me where they got 6-10 inches and only suppose to get a coating to 2 inches.
    The SREF really showing a good amount of snow across SNE with that bullesye northeast CT to the Boston area.
    Clearly a shift in these models from what they were saying just two days ago.

  35. This event will feature a good amount of wind which will help compact the snow a bit, preventing ratios from being ridiculously high. My initial estimate is 4-8″ for the Boston area. Will probably change in a couple hours from now…

      1. Plenty of time to adjust, and I agree I am quite conservative here. I am returning to college today, so Boston will probably end up with a foot.

  36. Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1m

    Blizzard conditions a good bet last 6-8 hrs of storm coastal NJ to coastal New England. heavy snows all I-95 corridor, worst nr coast

    1. Now You’re Cooking.

      Btw, where the Bleep did this come from all of a sudden?
      Previously this was an OTS scenario.

      😀 😀 😀

        1. Where? As I said, I wasn’t here. NOT mentioned UNTIL
          last night on Met Broadcasts and even last night Barry
          had boston receiving 1 inch. Hmm where did that come from. Euro?

      2. Here is the SREF predicted snow ratios at the height of the storm:

        http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/gifs/2014012009/SREF_snowfall_ratio__f045.gif

        20:1 immediate Boston area, 15:1 SE and 25:1 NW with the 25:1
        collapsing towards the coast.

        So at the outset it will be 15:1 and ending at 30:1, probably averaging for the whole storm something like 20-25:1

        If the system just cranks .5 that’s 10+ inches. IF it cranks
        out .7 or .8, then we’re talking 15-20 inches. If it ever dumps 1+ inch. Well we won’t mention that.

        What a watcher this one is.

  40. Another Marshfield blizzard maybe …… Looks like Wednesday school might be in jeopardy down around here.

    This will be the first time in a long time I can remember that whatever falls sticks around for a long time. Usually, at least here anyway, within 2-3 days after an event, we’ve seen it melt pretty quickly.

  42. Wow…this was a pleasant surprise this morning. Although I am not looking forward to scrambling for child care on Wednesday if school is canceled.

  44. So my question is with the shift. South shore right through the cape was to be the jack pot again with boston on the lighter side 2-4 showing last night. So with the shift that would mean less now in the projected jackpot area? Seems with these snow events south shore has done unusually well, thoughts.

    1. John,

      You’re still right in the middle of the good stuff. Not to worry.
      Northern extend of the good stuff has shifted North and West.

      1. Nice to have you back!! Hope your computer holds up for the storm. You can use your phone though right, that’s all I use.

        1. John,

          Yes I can use my phone, but it is not nearly as convenient as my desktop. I basically have a weather lab at my
          disposal with my desktop. 😀

  45. Banding will play a huge factor that won’t be seen well in models. The arctic air will have a huge impact, we saw this last time.

    1. Scott,

      It’s interesting looking at Analogs, but no matter how scientific one gets with it,
      each situation is STILL different. We shall see.

      I see some very conservative training going on. 😀 😀

  47. Say boston gets 10 inches that would bring total to 39 inches with more snow on Thursday and heading into the snowiest part of winter. Could be high totals come march maybe. After a brief warmup this weekend it stays cold.

  49. going to stay conservative. with this system as it can be very different depending on the exact track of this system. on the 1-5 scale for snow scale
    level 3 (moderate snowfall south and east of boston, RI and CT ) with some coastal locations north of boston as well) level 2 Light snow event inside of 495 and south of the pike.. minor accumulations for central and western mass. north of the pike. I want to see more model runs before posting a map.

    patriots had a great run this year with what we had. 12-4 with 2.55 mil in injuries, we could have easily had our first loosing record this year but we did not. We made it this far when most though we would not make the playoffs. oh yeah Tom brady and 2 others were sick all week and Brady was sick in the game if you did not see him throw up on the sideline. Welker also knocked out Talib. a few of the O line also sick so we were just to banged up to go any further . We had a great run, can’t wait for next year, when we get all those guys back that are injured. our defense will be great. If Bill will get a good size top reciever for brady that would be great too. GO BRUINS!! now its hockey season for me since the pats are not playing now. 🙂 At least we are looking at possible snow

  51. From our Friends at the Taunton office of the NWS:

    US National Weather Service Boston MA
    Tech: After a review of 12z nam/gfs will likely be expanding heavier accums further N. Good banding signal/snow growth in coastal plain.

  52. Really Brady puked on sideline? Missed that. He was so bad yesterday that would make sense. Only advisory up now for Plymouth county down through counties on the cape, 5 in all.

      1. I don’t think the air really came into play. It’s not like he has not played there. Not sure how I missed that on sideline as that sucks. As you said tip your hat to this team. But I’m still upset that they were not prepared for this game.

        1. I think they were just overmatched. At the conference championships, they reached a level of team talent that was head and tails above theirs. I thought there were 3 great teams playing yesterday and then there were the Pats. Of course, the flip side to this is that they acheived quite a lot with not so much.

          1. You are absolutely correct, Tom. Nearly every one of Manning’s receivers (perhaps every one) was not covered. Not to mention that Brady has what should be a #2 or #3 receiver pick as his first. I am incredibly pleased with the season our team gave us. Now if BB would actually get the talent………

  55. So from what I am reviewing it has all down here with the most and less for boston but still more than the 2-4 they were showing last night. Who knows.

    1. That’s a foot for Boston. That combined with NAM.

      I think the WSW comes out very soon with 8-12 inches as the snow amounts.

      Not sure that the B word will be mentioned at this time. 😀

  58. Also GFS is not great with banding set-up. I think many places will be near or above the 12 inch mark. The ratios look good through the snow growth region.

  59. Whats the time frame on this …..

    Does it end by midnight Tuesday night ….

    Time to get things cleared for Wednesday.

    Please ….. Lie to me if you need to. 🙂

    1. Can’t lie to you buddy. Wednesday after commute. Even if you had no school it’s only your first snow day.

  60. The GFS actually shows it being MORE windy than NAM.

    Gfs gets 40 mph wind gusts to Boston, while Nam keeps it SE of Boston.

    I do NOT see blizzard at this time. We’ll have to continue to monitor the situation.
    This “could” change.

  64. Oldsalty I know you don’t like him but wankum nailed this one. Started talking about it on Saturday posted some numbers last night but said early guess as it probably would change.

  66. The winter weather alerts are going to expand. If you look at the NAM and the GFS looks like a solid 6-10 inches for SNE with of course locally higher totals where those heavier bands of snow set up shop.

  67. Bernie Rayno tweet. So true

    @AccuRayno: this storm again underscores my pt on how clueless qpf is 3 days beyond the storm. Question is why so many continue to look at it?

  68. The 12″ for sure comment seems a little extreme, actually a lot extreme….

    NAM & GFS seems pretty consistent around .5 for Boston. Are we getting another anomalous 25:1 storm? I feel pretty confident forecasting about 6-9″ in the Boston Metro area. Worcester area 5-7″ and Springfield & Hartford area 4-6″ System is progressive in nature and not going to be almost 24 hours in duration as the models currently prognosticate. Start times would be 3pm west, 5pm east, end time 9am east, 11am west.

      1. Providence, New Bedford, Taunton, Chatham are about .5-.75 from east to west. So sure a foot plus in the areas that get .75 or a bit more and achieve an 18:1 or better ratio, that’s doable.

  69. Agree its progressive, but the high ratios could play havoc with snow totals. Also with arctic front i can see coastal areas getting in on snow earlier in the day.

    I don’t think its too extreme from Boston south to throw out 12 inch numbers.

  70. There will be much more qp not that far east of the area. Any slight shift west with the low (which has been the trend with storms all winter), and 0.5″ qp will be easily passed especially south and east of boston

  71. I believe the quote was 12″ + for sure…

    I can’t be sure of a widespread 12″ + for sure. Glad that others can. I think a nice general 6-9″, higher amounts east, lower amounts west covers it pretty nicely for now and gets the word out of a significant accumulation. You forecast a widespread foot to public in area of 4 plus million people you better be sure. Again glad you are, I just disagree.

    1. You don’t like my 12+ Inches for sure comment? 😀

      I do. Still do. We shall see. 😀

      Signed,
      Extreme OS

        1. A little extreme to guarantee another widespread 25:1 storm for the Boston area. Boston gets .5 of QPF and we do really well and go 40% above climo for LER at 18:1-19:1 that would be 9″ at Logan.

          1. A couple of things:

            1. I think qpf creeps up a bit more than .5
            2. I posted above based on SREF information
            that the storm would average 20:1 and perhaps
            a bit more.

            1. I am using forecaster experience to tweak model data, that’s all. Boston Climo is 11:1. Difficult for me to forecast a 50% increase in LER. Perhaps being reckless would make me a better forecaster, but I don’t think so….

              Concerned about onset times. Boston 12z GFS/NAM MOS output does not rise 6 hour pops above 30% through 7pm tomorrow night.

              I am being argumentative I get that, but my style has never been to go for the most extreme scenario and for every one storm that i get burned on because of that, I get 10 right….

              1. JMA,

                Believe me I understand what you are saying. I’m not a Met, but I have been doing this for well over 1/2 century. I am very grateful I don’t have to put anything out there to the public. I’d be scared to death to do that.
                But here is the place to speculate and go with the gut and that is what I am doing. That is all.
                😀 😀 😀

    1. This next storm will fill in those bare spots nicely, and that map wont be bare again for a while this time

    1. 12Z NAM 500MB chart for 45 hours:

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=045&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_045_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

      300MB chart

      http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=045&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_045_300_wnd_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&param=300_wnd_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M

      I’m thinking this thing “May” sneak closer still, getting us into more qpf. 😀

      We shall see.

  74. Based upon latest information, i am in the camp of at least 12 inches for most of coastal eastern mass. Watch qpf amounts to increase with each model run.

    1. Agree. That’s what I posted above.

      This reminds me of a storm, not sure if last year or not, but Retrac and I
      were monitoring. It looked like an OTS job or a graze, then all of a sudden things
      changed dramatically on an 06Z GFS run. We DID end up with a sunstantial storm.

      As the old joke goes: “You’re Grand Mother is on the Roof”

    1. That’s not a bad forecast 24-30 hours prior to onset. My map would be 6-9″ in Boston and draw that right through the cape and out to 128. Highest amounts south and east.

  77. I’m going w/ oldsalty as he seems to have a knack at calling these big storms. 12 inches is a big storm as 9 is as well. Oh what will mr tk say. Put me in extreme camp please.

    1. TK comes in along the lines of JMA with 4-8 or 6-9 perhaps as much as
      6-10. Just a guess as I am not in TK’s head. I’m sure he’ll chime in after
      he views the Euro, FIM and to a much lesser extent, the Canadian. 😀 😀

    1. John, I answered your question just up from here. Work to do and then the kids indoor soccer game. I will check in tonight.

    2. Just saw that myself on fb. Its interesting to see snowfall accum from a different weather product than instantweathermaps which was much higher on the 12Z GFS. Im guessing this particular one is using 10:1 ratio so increase based on expected higher ratios and instant weather maps does a good job with its algorithms 🙂

      1. Instant Weather maps uses a highest temperature in the column
        type ratio. It does NOT use an automatic 10:1. That is why
        you see the 12+ areas on the map with qpf’s in the .5 to .6 range.

        I’m not going to pretend to say how valid those algorithms are except to say that for the 1/3 event they were pretty decent,
        in my opinion.

        2. That graphic was DT, the GFS has nothing for the cape, am i seeing that right? Maybe this gets so wrapped up it brings in warmer air along the cape and islands and turns to rain??

    1. They shifted that 6-10 a tiny bit further north and west since this morning, hoping no one would notice

  81. I have a feeling winter storm watches will be expanded to include all of bristol and plymouth counties in MA but thats as far north as they get for now. NWS will do their usual expanding of the warnings northward once theres already 6″ of snow on the ground. I can easily see that happening.

      1. Southern bristol and southern plymouth, northern parts of those counties arent under anything at the moment

  87. Does the slow nature of the arctic front have something to do with this storm tracking more NW?

    .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/…
    — Changed Discussion —
    1 PM UPDATE…FOR THIS AFTERNOON…MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO
    TEMPS/DEWPOINTS FOR LATEST TRENDS. STILL THINK SHOWERS WILL BE
    POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE
    FRONTS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY STATIONARY OVER THE LAST THREE HOURS WITH
    THE INITIAL ONE STILL STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL NH/VT AND THE
    SECOND MORE POTENT FRONT STILL IN SOUTHERN QUEBEC.

  88. What was the crazy 2F snowstorm a few weeks ago ….

    Was it .57 melted was 15.4 ?? I dont recall. That crazy 28-1 ratio or something like that.

    Anyhow …. .4 at 20-1 is 8 inches. Does 20-1 for the predicted temps sound about right ?

    3. Tomorrow about noontime boston dips below 20 and falls to about 10 from there till the end of the snow.

  89. If the front is coming in slower, does that mean a delay in the arrival of the cold air? And would that mean temps might not be as low thus higher ratios not obtained, at least early in the storm?

  92. Boston itself has been right on the line of some moderate qp amounts and substantially more. If i had to guess which way it goes, id say boston gets more

  93. Denver might be in big trouble, it might be why manning did not look happy, they are looking into a possible bounty scandel

    2. I’m not finding that anywhere, Matt. Do you have a source you could share with me on FB? My gut tells me no. I’ve never thought of them as a nasty team. But that is based on nothing.

        1. Thanks, Keith. I’m thinking if there were an investigation, it’d be all over the papers. But you never know.

    1. They cheated back in the Elway days when they committed salary cap fraud, twice. Nothing would surprise me.

  95. Don’t look at surface temps for snow ratios, it’s temps within the snow growth region.
    I am still sticking with a potential for 12+ for lots of areas from Boston south.

  97. I don’t see anything but nothing surprises me, all teams do everything they can to get an advantage. Many teams violated salary cap back in the day

  98. I don’t really want to start discussing why the Patriots lost, but I just watched the painful game again, and it was painful, I believe both offense and defense r to blame, the bandaded defense we had couldn’t get off the field and give the ball back to the offense, granted the offense wasn’t good, but they never had the ball!! Ugh 🙂

    1. I would say the NAM is overdone and cut those amounts, but each GFS run today has been almost identical to those amounts.

    2. 14 inches down to 10 or 11.
      Remember, this is an 18Z run.

      Like I said before, let’s concentrate on the 0Z runs and throw out the 18Z runs.

      To me, the synoptic charts actually looked more impressive with this run, even
      if qpf showed as somewhat less.

      Time will tell.

      1. HAZARD TYPES… HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

        * ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 5 TO 7 INCHES… ALONG WITH
        BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

        * TIMING…TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

        * IMPACTS…HEAVY SNOW WILL MAKE FOR WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS. BLOWING
        AND DRIFTING SNOW MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN ONE HALF
        MILE AT TIMES.

        * WINDS…NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

        * TEMPERATURES…5 TO 15 DEGREES.

    1. I don’t know what the Bleep they are waiting for…

      There is enough evidence now to post the Watch. If it doesn’t pan out, they
      can removed them. What are they going to do? Go right to a WARNING Later?

      I thought the idea was a watch and if conditions pan out, hoist the warning.

      What are they doing down there??????????????????????????

  106. I’m on phone so can’t see if anyone posted but if my txt alert from nws is to be believed a winter storm warning was just posted for central ma

    1. Yup, this is hasically a redo of the storm a couple weeks ago ….. A bit less bitterly cold and a bit less QPF.

  112. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/er/box/

    It’s about time. AND here we go again with Blizzard Watch. 😀 😀 😀

    AND they did SKIP the Watch and went right to the warning. How much snow?

    These guys are a bunch of PUTZES!@()#(*!@#*!()@*#*(!@#

    * LOCATIONS…NORTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT…NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND…
    SOUTHERN WORCESTER COUNTY AND BOSTON AND THE WESTERN SUBURBS.

    * HAZARD TYPES…HEAVY SNOW.

    * ACCUMULATIONS…SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

    * TIMING…FROM MIDDAY TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

    * IMPACTS…SNOW COVERED ROADWAYS WILL CAUSE DIFFICULT DRIVING
    CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH GUSTY
    WINDS WILL CAUSE VISIBILITIES AT A MILE OR LESS.

    * WINDS…NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH.

    * TEMPERATURES…4 TO 18 ABOVE.

    * VISIBILITIES…A MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

    Note: Hazard HEAVY SNOW
    Yet visibility 1 mile or less at times.

    Um, that is NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT NOT Heavy snow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    They have their collective heads up their collective Rosy Red A****les.

    1. I found this:

      Greater than or equal to 1.0 km (greater than ½ SM [statute mile]): Light
      0.4 km< visibility 1/4SM and less than or equal 1/2SM : Moderate
      Less than or equal to: 0.4 km (less than or equal 1/4SM) : Heavy

      According to this, the NWS is calling for LIGHT SNOW!!!!!!!!!! 😀 😀 😀

  113. Based on short range models I think numbers will end being increased by the NWS, the storm is coming closer imo.

  114. I just got a text from my alarm company for blizzard watch. My service is sketchy as I’m at a roller rink and I’m posting outside now. South shore and cape clearly will take the brunt of this one.

  115. As I said, 12+ will be realized across most of eastern massachusetts from just outside I95 eastward with more to the south.

  117. This one really creeped up on us, eh? Looks like a good bet for 4-8 in the immediate metro area, but JUST to the south, there could easily be more.

  118. 18Z GFS has the system deepening RAPDILY off of Nc and then VA.

    Upper winds, 500MB, 200MB and 300MB winds looks to take it NEAR the benchmark
    as a DEEP system.

  119. It feels like we keep coming closer and closer to one of these low’s really closing off. Will it? When? Lots of winter still.

    No complaints in the meantime.

  120. Hi guys, gals, snow lovers, snow haters, weather enthusiasts, lurkers, and anyone else that might be watching, including a few of our TV friends. 😉

    Up comes the storm, down go the temps, down comes the snow, up piles the snow.

    Thinking right now under 6 outside 495, 6-12 most areas except 12+ east coastal MA and all of southeastern MA and northern RI with just a bit less southern RI and somewhat less Nantucket due to a little wetter snow there. POWDER FLUFF everywhere else, which is why 0.50 inch melted will be 10+ inches of snow.

    WILDCARD is that the entire thing may end up a little further east and amounts have to come down a bit, but given recent trends, do not expect this at this time.

    Get the shovels and snowblowers and plows ready! Tuesday night and Wednesday morning will be fun.

    Blizzard conditions at times South Shore at least. We’ll see about North Shore.

    2. Tk, what is your take on the snow ratios?

      SREF seems to think mostly 20:1 with a bit higher towards the end of
      the storm.

  122. Well, I have been hoping for 1 or 2 more decent snowstorms before the winter is over. I am hoping this is #1 – hoping for #2 snowstorm sometime in late Feb. – mild enough then to melt that storm gradually. But, hey – we get what we get and who knows what the rest of the winter will bring. Not thinking of spring just yet. With the exception of the Cape and SE MA at least the snow will be fluffy and easier to move, I guess. And it piles up faster, too.

      1. Hi, Vicki. Fine, thanks. Just chugging along (hope that’s the right expression). 2013 was a tough year – hoping 2014 is better. Some excitement in the weather department always perks me up. However, as much as I like the excitement of a snowstorm – it’s no fun for those who have to drive or walk or work around in that weather. Hope all is well with you.

    1. Steady stuff should be 4PM southern counties and by 6PM northern counties, based on current timing.

  126. Harvey thinking boston 5-10 and 6-12 down this way all of Plymouth county down through cape cod. Said it could be more if it comes closer.

    1. And less if it shifts a bit to the east, which it may.

      I am going on the higher side, for now, but something tells me to watch this thing for a sudden shift east…

      1. I read most of his blogs and like him a lot. I’m wondering who Dave D or was it W is. He posts both BZ and 7. Very polite and knowledgeable

  130. I just wanted to chime in on what Matt said. I don’t think Denver cheats at all, there a very good team. Regarding welker if I’m missing something I’ve never known him to play dirty and he said he was not trying to take him out. Regarding bb it takes more than one player to a team. Key injury yes but don’t think it was the game changer as the entire team sucked yesterday. Look for some rebuilding during off season and I’m sure they will be right back in the hunt next season.

  133. In line with Harvey and Eric’s thinking. I would tighten the ranges up a bit. Bos 6-9″and southeast ma 8-10″ as 5 and 6″ ranges are way too broad. Localized 12″ amounts possible east facing coastal locations of southeastern ma and the outer cape.

  134. I think there will be a very fine line where cape cod and extreme southeastern mass could be around a foot of snow, to Worcester receiving just a few inches, if this goes east or west just the slightest amount, it will change dramatically, I know I’m always the bear of bad news for snow lovers, but I think we are all on the lower side of the accumulation spreads IMO, 00z nam run should really fine tune some details 🙂

  135. 128 west to 495 5-8″ 495 west to Worcester 4-6″ West of Worcester 3-5″ metro Hartford 4-6″ Berkshires 2-4″ Islands and south coast of RI and CT 6-8″

  136. Yup Charles just keep thinking that way. Get your crew ready for a long night. And please don’t tell me plows won’t be needed. I thought you were going away, no.

  138. I think were looking a general level 2 snowfall event for most of SNE 6-10 inches. The exception would be southeastern parts of New England including the Cape and Islands which may reach level 3 snowfall 10 plus inches.
    Waiting to see those 0z runs.

      1. No doubt this will be a snoworama with the cold temps in place. The snow will pile up quickly with the snow being
        powdry in nature and especially where those heavy bands setup shop.

      2. I think boston is in the action without doubt but boston will not be in the jackpot zone. 12+amounts somewhere on south shore or even more so along the cape. Of course this going by what we know now.

    2. I think your right on target. I think when the nam comes out it will overdo the qpf in my opinion. I’m really thinking high totals when winter is over.

  140. 8-10 in Boston to 128, 6-8 128 to 495, 495 westward 2-4, Quincy southward to the cape 12-15 inches, from Boston southward to Providence and along the I95 7-9.

    Again there will be an extreme cutoff to precip around Worcester, any slight deviation changes things in a big way.

  142. North and west of boston 4-8, boston to say Weymouth 6-10, hingham right through Plymouth county 8-13 and cape 12+ someone maybe gets 2′ ft somewhere along the cape. All a guess.

  143. Most times, I think, arctic air arriving in bulk pre-storm usually either pushes the event a bit further south or it eats away at the precip from the north and west.

    I still dont know what happened 2-3 weeks ago, when it fell to 2F at Logan and continued to snow heavily. An anomoly, but not the norm.

    I’ll go slightly lower, specifically ….

    2″ Lowell
    4″ at the 93/128 cloverleaf
    5.5″ at Logan
    8″ in Marshfield
    General 10″ on Cape, with Sandwich the max at 12″

    Not much snow north of Mass/NH and Mass/VT borders, or north of Kittery, ME and west of Springfield, MA.

    1. I’ve seen Marshfield get very heavy snow when Provincetown has a NE wind and in Marshfield, there’s a N wind. It lasts a few hrs as a storm’s coastal front is in retreat out to sea.

      I get the idea the wind in Boston is mostly north all of this storm and feel a red flag that the coastal front my remain too far offshore and lessen the intensity of snowfall near the coast.

  147. Tom Pete was saying I think last week that the storms coming for this week the cold would basically push it out. I guess that theory is out the window.

    1. Yes and no.

      Its far from a direct hit, but just enough of a backing of the upper winds to throw some moisture into the arctic air.

  151. Imagine what thse totals would be if there was blocking and a storm tracking at the benchmark. Still for a progressive storm and storm south and the east of the benchmark there could be some pretty good totals.

  152. Ok…one area of winter weather I don’t much about is the “coastal front”…so I have a kind of dumb question…Does every Northeaster winter storm produce a coastal front?

    1. I suppose so …….

      They can be different. That storm 2-3 weeks ago had a coastal front and even on the east side of the front, it was below freezing.

      But, I think most coastal lows in New England are going to create a coastal temp thats milder than the interior (in the cold season) and more humid than the interior (in the warm season).

      1. I agree…it seems like the talk of coastal fronts has only been around for the past 10 years or so.

  153. Mr.Kiljoy (Tom) at it again. 😀 Shame on you.

    Log 5.5 inches. I dooooon’t think so.

    I think Logan comes in at 12 inches. 😀

    We shall see. Now when this NAM finishes, I’ll have to back off! 😀 😀 😀

    2. Hmmm

      Not liking what I am seeing. This run of the NAM takes the system well
      outside of the benchmark. Gives Boston 8-10 inches. Down even more since
      18Z. I am not liking this trend at all.

      If the 0Z GFS follows suit, then We better start preparing for LESS of an event.

      It’s only 1 model, but simply NOT liking it at all.

      Here is the final snowmap:

      http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014012100&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=045

  156. Wow, if the NAM’s at like 9, 10 or 11 ….. something like that, then I’m feeling good about that 5.5 🙂

  159. Is there a chance that it stays under 20F for 4 straight days, starting tomorrow …. that would be impressive.

    1. For 0Z NAM? That’s PUTRID!!!

      Storm simply too far at sea. Almost like a glancing blow at this point. 😀 😀

      Btw, 18Z 12KM WRF run has Boston in .5 to .75 qpf, however, the 4KM run for same model comes in with .25 to .5.

      4KM model used NAM initialization while the 12KM run used GFS initialization.

  162. It’s not a surprise. Nobody is calling for 12 in boston, I think it’s to high. But with the fluff factor who knows. 12 inch totals again throughout south shore and cape. I could be way off. Also don’t go by nam.

  163. In the end, I think the Cape will have some impressive snow totals, but also believe the same for Boston due to the fluff factor.

  164. See what the 0z GFS has to say. I am still thinking a general 6-10 inches for most of SNE. Highest totals southeastern parts of New England including Cape and Islands.

  165. amounts will dramatically decrease as u got west especially beyond 495, should be watched even tomorrow bc again any slight deviation can increase or decrease amounts big time

    1. It maybe a situation where were at the lower end of the projected snowfall totals.
      I would be surprised at this point if this is not an accumulating snow event for SNE.

    1. Of course. I’m just reacting to what I am seeing and I ain’t liking it one little bit.
      Also, now, looking at the wind field, we don’t get ANY ocean enhancement that
      I can see. Wind will be N to NNW during most of the event. This blows big time!

  172. SREF doesn’t make sense. The snow field, if you will, is shaped as if this is a classic nor’easter, or even one in which the Low tracks just west of the benchmark and moves almost directly due north. That looks very unlikely. I think you’ll see a flatter track with the Low tracking south and east of the benchmark (not by much). What this means is Cape Cod and the Southeast Coast bearing the brunt (12+), with areas from Boston (~8) west (<6) and north (<6) lessening in intensity. Sharp cutoff. Could be very little snow in southern NH (~2). QPF amounts will be small everywhere (<.5), except perhaps Nantucket (~1), where the snow will be relatively wet, and may even mix with sleet at times. But even .4QPF in Boston would give Boston about 8 inches, with the projected ratio's.

  174. The storm is drifting east somewhat on latest runs, but would not be surprised to see it come back west a little.

  176. I see channel 7 has the biggest range in snowfall. Outer cape at 12-18 but Boston 5-8. I guess we shall see how it plays out today.

  177. I personally see no reason to lower from my previous thoughts of wide range close to a foot and more in many locations. I still believe it tracks closer and thrown more qpf to many when all said and done.

  178. In addition to the snow there are wind chill advisories up for parts of SNE. With a fresh snow pack on the ground and if there are clear skies I would not be surprised if there are below zero readings for lows this week.

  179. Banding to the NW side of the storm looks impressive overnight tonight and thats what I am banking on brining in the 12 inch mark. Banding is not well defined on many models so it’s a toss up.

    1. I agree, the banding needs to be watched, I think they set up just south and east, and possibly just off shore, but we shall see, thanks hadi

  180. Nice to see a storm impact the folks down in the DC and Baltimore area. I think it’s been two years since they saw more than 2 inches.

  181. TV Mets for Boston:
    CH 4: 6-10″
    CH 5: 5-10″
    CH 7: 5-8″

    Most have Worcester and north at 3-6″, and outer Cape at 10-12″ with possibly more on outer Cape.

  182. Good morning, if this was a little longer duration storm, we would be looking at a memorable storm, since its moving rather fast, it will limit snow accumulations, also the Wed am commute looks most hazardous. Moderate storm for most

  184. Hadi you were mentioning D.C. So far this year they 3.4 inches of snow. They have not had a 2 inch plus snow day since January 26, 2011 when that snowfall had a big impact on the evening commute that day.

  186. I mentioning to TK on FB last night if we had any type of blocking with these cold storms we would be looking at historic snowfalls for storms and season.

    1. I see that foot area now to the east of where I am in CT on the latest GFS run. The thinking here is 6-10 inch snowfall.
      Will wait and see what winter storm Chester has in store.

  189. Here’s the NYC NEXRAD Radar. Notice how this precip is expanding in NJ.
    I see a North and Northwestward movement to these echoes as they expand.

    Looks like it’s getting ready to DUMP. 😀

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=OKX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&delay=15&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=1&remembersettings=on&setprefs.0.key=RADNUM&setprefs.0.val=10&setprefs.1.key=RADSPD&setprefs.1.val=15&setprefs.2.key=RADC&setprefs.2.val=0&setprefs.3.key=RADSTM&setprefs.3.val=0&setprefs.4.key=SLABS&setprefs.4.val=1&setprefs.5.key=RADRMS&setprefs.5.val=1&setprefs.6.key=RADLIT&setprefs.6.val=1&setprefs.7.key=RADSMO&setprefs.7.val=0

    1. Is this noise, OR is snow breaking out in SE MASS?

      http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=BOX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&delay=15&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=1&remembersettings=on&setprefs.0.key=RADNUM&setprefs.0.val=10&setprefs.1.key=RADSPD&setprefs.1.val=15&setprefs.2.key=RADC&setprefs.2.val=0&setprefs.3.key=RADSTM&setprefs.3.val=0&setprefs.4.key=SLABS&setprefs.4.val=1&setprefs.5.key=RADRMS&setprefs.5.val=1&setprefs.6.key=RADLIT&setprefs.6.val=1&setprefs.7.key=RADSMO&setprefs.7.val=0

  190. With NYC forecasts is for 8-12 inches so they could end up after this is done with more snow than they typically get in an entire winter. They 15 inches for far. Watch this low pressure system getting stronger once its hits the water.

  193. I am comparing the radar with the latest 6z nam and it appears that this is moving 5 hours a head of schedule. Does anyone else see that or am I sadly incorrect?

  194. OS ….. I can see ocean effect cumulus just sitting offshore, moving pretty much due north to south. So …… those echoes down around Sandwich are probably accurate of some ocean effect starting to kick in.

  196. You may see a few ocean effect flakes wander onshore South Shore – not the storm. You may see snow that looks like it’s moving in on radar from the SW – not reaching the ground other than a few mini flakes in some spots. Real snow comes mid afternoon south, end of day north.

    Blog is updated!

    I have a very busy day including 3 appointments. I can check in mobile at times but will be limited until this evening.

    Have a great day all!

    And Happy Birthday to my mom!!

Comments are closed.