Wednesday AM Update

259 Comments

3:22AM

Short version now, expanded blog later…

While my snow #’s were partly obliterated by Mother Nature (much less to the N & NW of Boston) it became a case of the “haves and have nots” as we saw a persistent band of snow dump many inches (over a foot in some cases) just south of Boston, southwestward to northern RI. A very sharp cut-off was observed just to the NW of this band with a rapid drop-off to 1 inch or less in north central and interior northeastern MA and southern NH.

This morning as low pressure winds up and passes well southeast of Cape Cod, a final batch of snow will be across southeastern MA and Cape Cod, then the storm will pull away leaving cold in its wake, which will dominate for many days, except for a brief moderation on Saturday as a disturbance passes north of the region and brings some snow showers.

A little later, more detail in the day-by-day, and a look into next week’s pattern.

Updated forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Sharp contrast from snow/wind Cape Cod and southeastern MA to breaking clouds and clearing NW of Boston with the clearing pushing eastward with time. Lingering snow Cape Cod into midday where several more inches may occur. Areas of blowing snow. Temperatures steady in the teens. Wind N 10-20 MPH gusting to 30 MPH inland, 15-30 MPH gusting to 40 MPH coast. Wind chill near zero at times.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear to partly cloudy. Lows -5 to 0 inland, 0-5 coast. Wind NW 5-15 MPH with gusts over 20 MPH. Wind chill below zero.

THURSDAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 15-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

FRIDAY: Sunny. Low 0. High 15.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 10. High 32.

SUNDAY: Partly sunny. Low 10. High 20.

MONDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow showers. Low 5. High 22.

TUESDAY: Partly cloudy. Low 5. High 17.

259 thoughts on “Wednesday AM Update”

  7. Thank you, TK

    What an amazing storm. As promised, however, it was the cape and SS. Everyone there ….safe travels today. I suspect a lot of school districts are sorry but then I always feel its better to be safe.

  8. Eye ball here around 7 maybe a tad more but not much more.

    Impressive numbers coming in form south of the city.

  9. Thanks TK !

    Light snow ….. quite windy …… I wonder if anything happened at the 2 am high tide ??

    10 inches, but drifts here and there of 2 ft.

      1. Hope so too ! Although, the snow is so powdery, all the driveways and plows may need multiple redos. 🙂

        1. hahahahaha – why watch the news when the main event is right outside your window……sadly, we who got nuthin’ must resort to the TV for our snow viewing 🙂

        1. Nice ! While it was a “milder” storm in Boston …. 10F vs 2F a few weeks back …… its been a colder storm in SE Mass.

          It was 28F most of that storm in Marshfield, while this one has been 19-23F.

          Its really fluffy snow this time.

    1. Thanks John I will. Just went out and took more measurements here in Hingham….15 plus inches..wind is starting to make exact measurements tougher. Heading out shortly to shovel. The Med Center is scheduled to start seeing patients around 1 and 1 have a conference call and webex at that time. I plan on getting to work around 10-11. Stay safe everyone.

  13. Good morning. What a disappointment. No call from work. I have to go in now.

    Deepening storm off shore is throwing back some snow. Snowing lightly here.

    Will take some measurements when I go to clear off the car and head in to work.

    Will report later.

    What a bummer. Some impressive numbers on the South Shore.

    Amazing!

    2. I hope this is like the little engine that could. I think I can, I think I can, I think I can…… 😀 😀

  15. Absolute whiteout !! I think Marshfield’s getting a bit of synoptic snow and is sitting under an ocean enhanced band of snow.

  16. Woburn I am guessing is under 2″…and they canceled school. Lovely. Guessing next time they won’t be so quick to jump the gun.

  17. Just putting my boots on to head out.
    Snowing a little bit harder now. vis close to a mile I would say.

    Report later.

  20. Snow started back up again in Woburn…of course right as I got ready to go out. Hopefully it won’t last long and it’s not coming down much…just a PITA.

  22. What a disappointing storm for the north shore. I received maybe, maybe a quarter of an inch. Looks like a train of potential storms behind this though with the cold actually hanging on for a change

    1. Disappointing doesn’t cut it. It was way beyond that.
      Not only for North Shore, but for Boston area as well. Only interesting
      from about 10 miles South of Boston and beyond.

      Just plain PUTRID.

  23. Snow has finally ended, and it’s brightening a bit, roads r actually in very good shape, rt 1 is pavement, looks like most r going to work, busy a bit 🙂

  24. Mac said roads from Framingham to Watertown were in extremely good shape. Route 3 through south shore on the news looked to be horrendous.

  25. Arrived at work about 20 minutes ago and it was a tough drive, even if I only do travel two miles. The visibility was next to nothing but thankfully there weren’t many others on the road.

  26. I love all the scary terms used to describe the cold being thrown around. It’s late January…in NE…in the winter…not sure why single digits creates such hype, even with colder wind chills. Talk to anyone over 50 and they will tell you this was the norm in the winter. Not sure what people expect.

    1. I agree totally.

      I can remember a streach in the 60s when I was commuting from Millis to
      Northeastern. It was a like an Arctic waste land, especially out there.
      One morning, we hit 17 Below. I got up, got the car going and drove into school.

      NO BIG DEAL!!!!

      GEEZ what a bunch of PANSIES out there!!!!

  28. He ha ha Ho ho hardy ha ha ha…….

    Big WHOOPDY DO.

    I measured, ready for this, 5 inches in JP. 5 stinken inches that is all.
    AND I made about 20 measurements all over. IF Hadi comes in with 7 inches,
    I GIVE UP!

    P – A – T – H – E – T – I – C !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Drive in was a PIECE OF CAKE, except for hitting every freakin traffic light RED
    save for the very last one. NO synchronization of lights in Boston whatsoever.
    ANYWHERE, not even the main streets. NONE. Non-Existant. What a bunch of MORONS!!!!!

    Re: This storm
    I Blew it big time big time big time. JMA and TK were correct.

    I know we blame the DRY air, but the simple truth is: the damn storm was too
    far off shore and thus allowed the dry air to invade. What else would we expect?

  29. In Sharon, got 11″ of the driest fluffiest snow ive ever seen in my life, and i’ve skied in Colorado before too. Incredible to have back to back storms with ratios waaay above climo for the area

    1. Was pretty fluffy, but ONE time I saw it Fluffier than this. It was somewhere
      in the 80s. About 6 inches fell and you could clear several feet by exhaling a big breath. 😀 😀

      1. haha, i wish it were that easy. My neighbor this morning cleaned his entire car off with a leaf blower. I timed him, took less than 2 minutes to do the entire thing. When he was done, it looked like the car had been in the garage all night 🙂

  30. The madness of this event for Marshfield continues. 5 straight obs covering the last hour and a half with 0 visibility.

    It continues to snow heavily !!

    12 inches.

    1. Send another blast up this way Tom ;)…just finished shoveling…real easy cold but not horrible. Roughly 15 inches here in Hingham.

  31. Old salty, it’s has changed here, eventually they will be canceling school cause its below 10, it’s only 10 yrs away

  32. I measured multiple time and average around 7 to 7.5 inches. I was up around 2 AM and that was the measurement. it compacted a little this morning so I think that’s why you have 5 OS.

    I also was way wrong for Boston north, but the dividing line was very close for sure. Oh well we move on 🙂

    1. Perhaps Hadi. It was pretty windy all night and with that kind of fluff,
      I suppose it can compact fairly quickly. Plus, that extra Mile more to the
      South can make a difference, especially with that set up. You reported
      heavy snow yet a mile away, the best I could do was moderate. That right
      there could make the difference. 😀 😀

      Oh well, we tried. Onward and upward. They’ll be plenty more chances
      for us to be wrong again. 😀 😀 😀

    2. Going, Going, Well almost Gone…

      http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=BOX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&delay=15&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=1&remembersettings=on&setprefs.0.key=RADNUM&setprefs.0.val=10&setprefs.1.key=RADSPD&setprefs.1.val=15&setprefs.2.key=RADC&setprefs.2.val=0&setprefs.3.key=RADSTM&setprefs.3.val=0&setprefs.4.key=SLABS&setprefs.4.val=1&setprefs.5.key=RADRMS&setprefs.5.val=1&setprefs.6.key=RADLIT&setprefs.6.val=1&setprefs.7.key=RADSMO&setprefs.7.val=0

  34. On NWS site for totals, i dont know who it is or why they allow it to continue, but the “general public” report out of Sharon is always waaaay off. 16.8″?? No way Jose.

  35. All those unhappy snow people are welcomed to come down here and shovel all the “disappointment” out of my driveway.

    Hot chocolate can be negotiated. 🙂 🙂

  37. I got 4 inches here. It was the shoreline of CT that got the higher totals. I kept hoping that heavier band would come up here but it didn’t. In fact the snow was done where I am around 11pm last night.

  39. I said this to TK last night on FB, schools make decision earlier then they used bc so many families have dual working parents and they have to allow people to figure out what to do with kids. We have no family who can care of our kids so we need to plan in advance. Does it suck when schools shouldn’t be closed and they do, of course. But that’s why schools should build in more snow days and extend school. Just my hubmle opinion.

    2. The problem I have with Plymouth is that they generally wait until 6 am to cancel school. This time they didn’t. But when they wait until 6am, my wife is already at the baby sitters house when they cancel. It can be frustrating. I think the schools should adopt a new procedure. Send out notice the day before about a possible delay, then actually make the call at 2am based on current conditions and future conditions based on the next few hours. I don’t think people would mind getting a call or text at 2am saying there is no school. I would think it would be pretty easy to predicted the conditions a few hours out. This way parents can start creating a plan if school is canceled.

      1. I agree Coastal. Since my boys are in the Plymouth school system I have often times had to scramble at the last minute to figure out child care.

    4. Hadi,
      You are absolutely correct! I still tease my kids telling them they are soft compared to us in the past, but there is a good reason. It is much easier to plan your day when you know the night before. With that said I will never tell my kids that, they still have to think their Dad tromped through chest high snow to get to school.

  40. What interests me more than the sharp cutoff to the north was where the heaviest totals actually were. The Cape was supposed to have the highest totals but even with the snow bands across there this morning i dont think anyone out there comes close to the totals in plymouth county. That heavy band that set up last night for hours left the cape in a sort of dry slot for much of the storm

  41. Hadi you were mentiong the snow threat for Monday. One of our meteorologists here in CT was mentiong that one along with two others one Saturday and later next week. Whether we get any of them who knows but it will be fun tracking these.

  42. Cat996G did well on totals – calling for 4 in Worcester and 7 in Boston. Mark seems to have pretty much nailed it with a small exception of being only slightly high for north of pike. Well done and if I missed anyone pahleezzzz let me know!

    1. Adding to that – other than capping the totals to the south a bit low, Tom, your predictions were really close also.

  46. Interesting winter w/these very cold storms.. I think Hingham et al have been under a blizzard warning twice already. Wish some of that would work its way west at some point.

  47. Yaaaaaaawn.

    Hopefully the next couple storms are a little more consistently widespread.

    Still think this was one of the “prettier” snows we’ve had.

  48. Say Good-Bye to the Snow….

    http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=BOX&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=N0R&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240&centerx=400&centery=240&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&delay=15&scale=1&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&rainsnow=1&lightning=1&remembersettings=on&setprefs.0.key=RADNUM&setprefs.0.val=10&setprefs.1.key=RADSPD&setprefs.1.val=15&setprefs.2.key=RADC&setprefs.2.val=0&setprefs.3.key=RADSTM&setprefs.3.val=0&setprefs.4.key=SLABS&setprefs.4.val=1&setprefs.5.key=RADRMS&setprefs.5.val=1&setprefs.6.key=RADLIT&setprefs.6.val=1&setprefs.7.key=RADSMO&setprefs.7.val=0

    1. Not for nothing, but EURO has a clipper pass to our NORTH on Monday,
      with just a little light snow or snow showers here. 😀 😀 😀

      As does the GEM-GLB (Canadian).

      SO, at this point I would NOT count on Monday Snows.

      Hope it happens, but right now, I’ll believe it when I see it. 😀 😀 😀

    1. Not I. I really thought that the Northern Edge of the good stuff would
      be North of Boston and Boston would see that FOOT of snow. No such luck.

      Just a matter of 10-25 miles is all.

      Oh well, onto the next one.

      Everyone else did a great job. Well done All!!!!!

      1. OS – you started to see the potential for the numbers to be lower in Boston early yesterday. You did a great job!!

          1. I like your forecasts and your links and your patience with those of us (me) who don’t have the knowledge but certainly appreciate those who do 🙂

    2. I agree, Charlie. It was always going to be a south shore and cape storm. Everyone pretty much nailed that area. I think the cut off/edge was particularly difficult to predict and as I look at the list of predictions everyone gave, and even the tv mets, the totals were not that far off. They simply needed to be dropped south a bit.

    1. Last night on the David Letterman show he made poked fun of both the PV and naming of storms. He said that yesterdays storm was named Polar Vortex XXCVII 🙂

  53. 12Z NAM hinting at some SNOW for Saturday. 😀 😀

    Polar Vortex. Geez the news talks about that as if it never existed!!!

    Gimmie a break. It happens EVERY WINTER!!

    Many a Winter much WORSE than this year.

    What’s all the fuss about. It’s WINTER!!!!

    1. Someone, somewhere actually said it was a term made up by liberals to promote the idea of global warming. You really can’t make this stuff up.

  54. In an earlier post, I said I hoped this would be winter storm #1 in my ideal planning – 2 more major snowstorms before the winter is over. Well, for those (including me here in Sudbury) this storm didn’t count. So, I am still waiting for 2 more big snowstorms before spring sets in. At this early point in the winter I see no problem, but who knows.

    So, hoping for 2 more big snowstorms before the spring! I will put in an early order now! 🙂

  57. The wind is picking up here. And on the great news front, the Sudbury River after the last few precips has really risen. It’s looking positively beautiful!

    1. Finally, eh?

      Was out that way last Thursday. My wife and I had dinner
      at the Wayside Inn. Really Nice. 😀

      1. We do enjoy the wayside inn. They have a great getaway package in the winter where you can spend the night – includes dinner and breakfast.

        Their food suffered a bit ago for the first time in my memory but it is getting back to where it was. I’m thinking it would be fun for a valentines dinner. Did you eat in a smaller room or the main dining room?

  58. Maybe the Whatever Channel can start naming Sunny Days??????

    Like Sunny Day Fausto!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Sunny Day Fausto will be moving into the Northeast tomorrow.
    Be ready to break out the sun screen lotion! Be safe all.

    That channel has gone down the tubes. An absolute JOKE!

    1. LMAO!!!! I watched the interview my friend did last night and I was actually a bit embarrassed for TWC. Clearly they prepped him as to what to say about how much TWC helps towns through storms.

  62. Im not buying the euro on a clipper passing through northern new england for monday. Doesnt make sense especially since another arctic front will pass through later in the weekend after a brief warm-up on saturday. Clippers will track along this zone and northern NE will be too far north. Yesterday’s storm track will be the rule if any clipper type systems form

  63. Wxrisk.com
    *** IMPORTANT **** SEVERAL things.

    1. By Friday there will be a total review of this event the forecasts.. MY forecasts.. what happened Why i Busted and where. It will be the MOST comprehensive review you will have EVER read from ANY meteorologist and will stun you with the bullshit approach

    2 To the best of MY knowledge over the past 15 years I am the ONLY one that does this . And those of you that do think that MO meteorologist ever admits a busted forecast you can kiss my ass

    3. THE snow ratios up north were AMAZING. THROUGH 12AM newark NJ only got 0.40″ of liquid and 10 of snow.. a snow ratio of 40:1. LaGuardia in NYC 0.25 liquid 8.1 ” snow for a snow ratio of 32:1 ISLIP long Island 0.46″ with 9.2″ for a snow ratio of 20:1… Bridgeport CT got 0.21″ with amounts of 5.5″ for a snow ratio of 26:1

    4 Very ACTIVE PATTERN with MANY snoWstorm chances over next 45 days . The JET stream is going to SPLIT which will set up many chances of SOUTHERN stream Lows… coming up from the Gulf and NOT clipper Lows. Of course the issue then is TRACK and position to the coast .

    THIS WEEK IN WEATHER THURSDAY late AFTERNOON / EVENING

  64. Cold looks to be here and staying at least through early Feb so with that no doubt plenty of snow chances coming.

      1. I hope not – lights and radio still work which has me a bit worried. I’d be happy if it were just the battery.

    4. Sorry to hear! Happened to my car on Sunday, just before the Pats’ game. I was on my way out the door to grab some chips and salsa for the game.

      Good luck!

      1. As long as we’re discussing vechicles.
        My car had a flat over the weekend. After taking forever
        getting the lug nuts have an installing the donut, I took
        it to the garage. It was a slow leak along the rim. Guys removed tire and resets the seal and puts the tire on the wheel.
        Next day virtually flat, as I was just able to get to gad station
        yesterday to fill with air. This morning, almost flat again.
        Drove by 3 gas stations looking for air.
        1 no public air
        2 Out of service
        3 Frozen. Yes that’s what the guy said. FROZEN. I said, how the hell does AIR freeze? He looked at me like I had 3 heads!

        So I make it to work and try my can of fix-a-flat which did not
        work probably because it’s over 10 years old and been sitting
        in my trunk forever.

        So, now I’m going to Wallgreen’s and purchase another fresh can and try that. Plus associate at work has lent me his 12 volt air inflator that runs off of the cigarette lighter in the car.

        In this cold these things are a pain the *SS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

            1. Ugh talk about a true pain. Good luck.

              Is it ok if I admit I laughed out loud with your comment about air freezing……WTH?

  67. This is a BEAUTIFUL stretch of winter. Precisely what I like. Sure, I would have preferred more than 4 or 5 inches (in Boston). But heck, it’s snow, it’s cold as it should be, and it looks and feels like winter and will remain that way for a while. I do think we’ll have several more threats and actual storms over the next 10 days or so. We’re in a pattern which may indeed favor the Quincy to Cohasset corridor. Boston area’s snowbelt this year. Ski country could do with some snow, however. They can make it, for sure, but the natural stuff is always better. Maybe a sneaky northern clipper system will bring them some luck. Not seeing other possibilities for north country.

    Loved the discussions of the storm yesterday. No-one `blew it,’ in my view. It was fun to read all of your posts. Weather is a crapshoot. So many confounding factors. Even though it’s physics in some sense, it’s also not physics, at least not the experimental kind we’re used to in the lab or in some R&D complex.

    1. Yes indeed, it’s atmospheric physics.

      I used to work with people that all had advanced degrees, some in
      Meteorology, but many had PHD’s in Atmospheric Physics and not Meteorology. These guys were amazing and taught me much. 😀

    1. It’s a good thing you said that. I figure the day you say we are in for a blockbuster, I’ll fall of my chair and at my age things break easily 😉

        1. I am so wary now. This storm was a miss days ago…last weekends was suppose to be morning rain and we got many inches…now Saturday is “nothing”…I don’t buy it. Expecting the worse.

          1. Agreed. Not taking anything the models say seriously until its a day or 2 from it. We will get more snow during this cold snap. As long as the cold is around, snow chances are there.

  71. I have a sneaky feeling today’s 12Z euro will show something big within the next 7 days, keep it for a few runs, then lose it. It’s due for one of those 🙂

  74. I heard driving home on wbz that two towns in Plymouth county trying to figure out highest total . Hanover saying 18 inches and pembroke saying 19 inches. No kidding this is true. Not sure how they will settle it. Barry said isolated 1-2 from snow showers on Saturday and Monday morning has a shot at a few inches is what he said.

      2. What’s this storm for Monday morning that I heard Barry mention while driving home. He just said possibly a few inches.

        1. He was probably looking at last night’s 0Z Euro and the 06Z GFS which both had something. It has since gone
          POOF in the night, errr Day on the 12Z runs.

          Perhaps it will come back.
          Baby Come Back!

  77. Here’s a very interesting chart from the 12Z NCEP-ENS-GLB.

    Note all of the precipitation events from 1/30 through feb 7. This is an ensemble run, so each ensemble has it’s own color on the graphs. Note also, that the precip in FEB, shows many ensemble members with 850MB temps ABOVE 0C, indicating mostly RAIN )!@&*#&!*(@^#&*!^@&*!@%$&*!@%^%$^@!

    Of course that’s a long way out and things can and will change.

    http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?lang=en&map=us&stn=Boston&mod=ncep_geps&var=std

    I thought that this cold was sticking around.

    Not for nothing, but I think that this has been a miserable forecasting Winter.
    NOTHING is going right!

  79. So Logan’s new total should be 33.2. I saw that they have 4.2 and that sounds about right. At my location in boston the heavy band never seemed to make it through. It did become tricky for some time but nothing like they thought. So was this the result of cold air or dry air or both?

    1. The Cold, dense, extremely DRY AIR had something to do with it for sure,
      however, if the storm weren’t so Freakin far out to sea, we all would have gotten clobbered and the dry air problem would have been for Eastern NY and VT.

      😀 😀 😀

  80. Well oldsalty not sure if I have this right but I thought tk had plenty of chances for end of this month than a real quiet February, does that sound right.

    1. John,

      I went back a few blogs. Not sure he said exactly that. I did find this:

      The uncertainty will be snow threats, but for now I’m going to lean toward the drier side of things and just keep an eye on disturbances rotating around the large scale upper level low pressure area that will be dominating eastern Canada and the northeastern US in the days ahead.

    1. Well going in I believe it was 29 inches and I’m seeing reports of 4.2 so I guess that’s the number.

  82. Everyone knows how wrong I was to think that the cold would not return in January. It has returned. Learning from my mistake, I am not going to predict what is going to happen 14-21 days down the road. The next 10-14 days look interesting in terms of winter weather. There will likely be several threats, several storms, and some variability. I am not biting on Euro’s outlook for a relatively warm first week of February. All other models are still on board with relatively cold temperatures.

    1. No worries Joshua. I was actually agreeing with your thinking about the cold air not sticking around. I liked how you made your predictions not just on gut or just for the hell of it, but you backed it up with facts and historical data and you stuck to it when many were saying the opposite. Shouldn’t deter you making future predictions just bc u were wrong this time. Maybe the warm air does return for feb and u were just a couple weeks off 🙂

      1. That’s how it looked here last night when I left work.
        Too bad it didn’t last.

        Thanks for the link. Pretty impressive.

  85. you people down south have had you snow now you guys get rain and give the areas that need snow the snow. ski areas need some natural POW!! so my favorite trail at Stowe opens up.

  86. The ski areas are definitely in need of some natural snow. Man-made snow can only get them so far. Lots of mountains have yet to open the other half of their terrain. Hope they can get something going before the feb vaca week or they will be in trouble

  87. my enviormental science teacher is young and is really into her subject, i think we had about a 15 minute talk about the weather 🙂

  88. Northwestern Europe continues to be virtually winter-less. A bit colder last week, but almost no frost to speak of. It’s really been mild all winter. Forecasters there are suggesting this will continue, with a “10-20%” chance of cold, winter-like conditions in the long-range forecast. My `theory’ is that when it’s relatively cold here it’s relatively mild there. The inverse holds true in summer. Also, in terms of precipitation when it’s relatively gray and wet there (which is most of the time; though wet means light rain or sprinkles), it’s relatively dry and sunny here (which is most of the time; yes, even though you may think that Boston has crappy weather, it’s a much sunnier place than, say, Edinburgh or Amsterdam). In sum, if the gray, frost-less weather continues in Holland, I think we’ll continue to have relatively cold spells with lots of sunny days and some chances of snow/mix/rain thrown in.

  89. You know what? I think that this year the models are suffering from:

    ShortWaveItis

    They absolutely have no clue what to do with them!

    I don’t like what I’m seeing with a parade of clippers passing
    to our North. We need those babies to pass South of us OR if
    the are headed North, to have a redevelopment South of us.
    I don’t see that happening.

    Right now, it looks like COLD, warm up with clipper passing North, then Cold
    again. Repeat, repeat again and again and we’re into mid February. 😀 😀

    NO SNOWS to speak of.

    We shall see.

    1. A few days before last nights storm, models had no clue which short waves to develop either and there was nothing concrete in the works. We didnt know until it was almost on top of us. I can see this happening again. Not necessarily a big storm again, but a storm popping up out of nowhere that hadn’t been on the models? yes

      1. Oh, I agree.

        Just not liking what models are showing, that is all.

        So, we’re just watching to see what pops up if anything. 😀

        1. saturday like tom posted. look at saturday might be an interesting sat afternoon. possible event monday time frame.

      2. Ace I believe Tuesday was on the model. Wankum started talking about it on Saturday. On air sunday night 2-4 inch amounts were projected with up or down movement, we know what Monday showed. I believe what we should keep an eye on is the storms that seem to go ots than come back and clobber us. I remember some storms last winter like this. Conflicting information on amounts looks like norwell hit it 18.3

    2. Oddly enough I really like the fact the models don’t have a great handle on these shortwaves. It makes it more interesting when things do develop.

  90. Hi all! I’ll be remote near the top of Mount Zion in West Woburn from about 6PM into the nighttime hours, operating from WHW’s “sister base station”. 😉

    I will have access to a laptop there so I can check in, comment, and update the blog.

  91. I wonder what the “snow showers” could be like Saturday afternoon ???

    Reason I ask, is that it looks to be a decent disturbance coming through and ahead of it, it could get into the low 30s, maybe setting up some instability ?

    I guess perhaps a squall line of sorts. Havent seen one of those 15 minute blinding squalls in a few years that leave a quick inch followed by perfectly clear skies …..

    1. It will Probably end up raining as temperatures rise into the upper 30’s
      lower 40’s. 😀 😀 😀

      Just saying the way this Winter is going anything is possible. 😀

  92. Tom this is exactly one of the two things Barry mentioned on the radio today. He said snow showers Saturday and not out of the question for an isolated 1-2 inch amounts. I believe if I’m correct Saturdays projected tempature should be in the mid 30s. He than went on to say a system could produce a few inches Monday morning.

    1. Thanks John, I didnt catch him.

      Are you on a multiple day shift or have you had a chance to come down this way and see all the snow ?

      1. Tom they sent us home at noon time, thank god cause I was beat. I work 7-3:30 so I was there since 6:30 am yesterday. Lots of snow. Tom I heard 19 for pembroke any thoughts on that. Heard driving home but trying to confirm. I meant lots of snow hear, to tired to fix it. Tom I’m done can’t spell or type now, lol.

        1. 🙂

          Looking at the amts around Pembroke, 19 wouldnt surprise me. I think it would be the highest reported. Either way, Pembroke certainly was one of the towns that was in that small area that got the most.

          1. Tom not sure if you saw my post above regarding Hanover/ pembroke. I guess there was some bickering on who placed higher Hanover 18, pembroke 19. Who cares norwell wins the pot at 18.3 inches.wankum also saying an inch or two is possible Saturday afternoon. 26 for Monday.

      2. Tom I can’t come home during storms as we stay till the job is compleatly done. First on it and last to leave.

    1. That would be encouraging !

      Perhaps 1-3 is still possible Monday even if something tracks a bit further north.

      I say that because, thats a pretty cold airmass preceding the clipper and I’d think there might be some opportunity for warm advection snows……

      Also, with that preceding cold airmass, a S-SW wind might just throw a little enhancement off of the ocean to our south. Feels strange to type, but I’ve seen it once or twice before.

    2. 18Z GFS has a very robust clipper heading in. So far it looks to traverse
      Northern New England, unless future panels redevelop it South of us.
      Fat Chance of that. 😀

  94. Tom what did marshfield come in at. I saw s report of 10.9 but from your posts I suspect that is to low. Not sure on time of that reading but saw it on bostonchannel.com

    1. 12. But, take that with a grain of salt because I’m within a 1/2 mile of the water and we had several hours of 20 mph hr winds, so its a very uneven snowcover.

      I’d say we got about .4 melted, so, the next sunny day or a 32F day and I think it will compact to about 4 or 5 inches.

      I really should get myself some kind of outdoor weather station. Next million. 🙂

  95. Officially Logan received 4.2″ of snow bringing the seasonal total so far to 33.4″. Yes it was somewhat disappointing considering it didn’t even reach the low end of the 6-10″ predicted by most mets.

    Another 10.3″ to reach Logan normal = 43.7″ with plenty of winter remaining! 🙂

    1. 35.5 to 1 if those numbers are correct. 😀 😀

      Imagine if we got the .5 or .6 qpf 😀 😀 😀

  101. Good evening,

    It’s freezing!! I call this useless cold simply bc it doesn’t need to be this cold to make snow, it could be 25 instead of 5, lol, anyways, I think we have snow coming on Sat, a widespread 1-2 inches, I lean on the lower side.

    Just measured the snow, had about 9 inches, down to 7 inches now.

    5.9 degrees and clear 🙂

  103. 18Z DGEX or Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension
    inputs includes Eta model 12-km grids out to 84 hours and 80-km and coarser, GFS grids for the remainder of the forecast period. Therefore, the Eta model is now being used to dynamically downscale the GFS solution by extending the run out to 8 days using smaller domains with boundary conditions supplied by the GFS, hence the name Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension (DGEX).

    For Monday:

    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_18z/f108.gif

  104. OS, it’s all about timing. It’s been a strange winter, with lots of rain events and a few rather bizarre snowstorms. We’re due for a classic nor’easter, and I feel we’ll get one before too long. This will be one of those long duration events in which we get a lot of QPF (e.g., 1.25-1.50), but the snow is wet with ratio’s close to 10:1, the Cape gets mostly rain, south coast mostly mix, Boston heavy wet snow with occasionally mixing, and inland all snow and better ratio’s. Of course, I’m hoping for a repeat of April 1, 1997, which stands out as the most incredible storm I’ve ever experienced. I think we got the equivalent of over 3.5 inches of liquid (maybe more, given that it actually rained a lot prior to the change-over). Surreal experience, waking up at 2am the morning of April 1, 1997, looking outside, watching thunder snow (I mean serious stuff, which made last year’s `Nemo’ storm seem tame, at least in terms of intensity and heaviness of snow), combined with hearing thunder and seeing lightning.

    1. Yes that was a memorable storm. I remember it well.
      Had to drive from Framingham to Canton as it was changing over.
      Then had to drive home from Canton with it snowing buckets.
      AWESOME!

      HOWEVER, for me the grand daddy of them all is still the blizzard of 78.

      36 inches of snow!!!

  106. Did anyone know there is an outdoor NHL game at Dodger stadium? 79 and hockey. They said that it was made to last to 75, so we will see what that brings with a projected high close to 80

  107. This is part of the NHL stadium series. Two games at Yankee Stadium one this Sunday and next Wednesday. The Game at Dodger Stadium this Saturday and the last one at Wrigley Field on March 1st.

    1. Ok for cold weather cities. Not as much of a gamble (except for possible snow), but the warm weather city (LA) that’s nuts!! It can be 90+ Degrees in Jan in LA with Santa Anna’s blowing. That is pure insanity. I hope the rink turns into
      a LAKE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111

  108. The average high for LA is 68 degrees for this time of year and with the western ridge in place you know there is going to be warmer than normal temps.

  111. Mets still talking about chance of 1-2 inches for Saturday day. This is like the 4th time I’ve heard it. Was 0 degrees when I got in my truck this morning.

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