The Winter Coldrums

287 Comments

7:00AM

Cold pattern. Dry pattern. Air supplied from the North Pole via Canada, not from Alaska. Boston was colder than Fairbanks on Wednesday, 17 and 30 respectively late afternoon at Boston and early afternoon at Fairbanks. Reinforcements of cold air are due here tonight as a system to the south dies and a cold front from the north northwest passes by dry, later Saturday from a stronger front and attendant moisture bringing a snow shower threat and a brief “warm up” first, and again Monday as another weak low and Arctic boundary blow through the region.

Forecast for southeastern New England…

TODAY: Partly cloudy. Highs 15-20. Wind W 5-15 MPH.

TONIGHT: Mostly clear. Lows 0-5 except 5-10 urban centers and coast. Wind shifting to NW 10-20 MPH.

FRIDAY: Mostly sunny. Highs 13-18. Wind NW 10-20 MPH.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy. Snow showers likely. Low 16. High 33.

SUNDAY: Partly cloudy. Chance of snow at night. Low 11. High 26.

MONDAY: Partly sunny. Chance of snow showers. Low 11. High 30.

TUESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 5. High 18.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly sunny. Low 0. High 19.

287 thoughts on “The Winter Coldrums”

  2. Good morning. MOBILE now at car dealership.

    THANKS TK for the update. What are the details on sunday night
    Snow chances?

    Tx

    1. I’m impressed with my dealership. (Clay Nissan, Newton)

      They had the car for 1.25 hours. They cleaned it all off, cleaned out the
      valve stem and resealed the tire. They couldn’t find a leak.

      NO CHARGE!

      They easily could have told me that I needed a new rim and tire and charged
      me $500. They didn’t and that does impress me. There are other dealerships
      that would have.

      They even told me that the Walgreens next door sold the 12 volt air compressors. I went over and picked one up for insurance ($17).

      We’ll see if it leaks again.

      😀

  8. Chet Curtis passed away. He was a great anchor with ch5 for years with his wife. I grew up watching him and to this day still love ch5, dick Albert said he was the Mayor of the news room.

    1. So sad 🙁 He was really good. Did he have cancer? I saw pictures of him and he looked really sick.

      1. Pancreatic cancer. 74 I believe. Like I said I grew up on 5 and its my best news station. He also started the show chronicle another icon show.

    2. How very sad. Their daughter used to compete at the same horse shows as my oldest. I loved watching them as a team on TV and also as incredibly supportive parents. Thank you, John, for telling us.

    4. Yes, very said.

      I enjoyed watching him, the ultimate professional.

      Yes back in the day, We watched channel 5 and not channel 4 as we do now.
      (I only turn to 5 to catch Harvey sometimes)

  9. That is sad, I remember him at Channel 5. I was a kid that was really into news and weather so I watched a lot. It makes me sad when bits and pieces of my childhood leave us.

  10. Thanks TK.
    Low pressure looks to travel north Sunday night Monday which stinks for us in SNE although could still see some snow showers. Saturday looks like a 1-3 inch event. Then there is another system late next week to watch.

    1. I’m Not feeling good about any of them.

      Re: Saturday
      Blah, blah, blah. Today’s 12Z NAM has it MUCH weaker than yesterday. Stick
      a fork in it.

      Re: Monday
      Clipper passes across FAR Northern NE. Stick a fork in it! Blah blah blah

      Re: Wednesday
      BIG system off shore. How close will it come?

      Just for giggles, have a look the 06Z DGEX.

      The Downscaled GFS with ETA Extension model or DGEX model is a 192-hour, high resolution version of the WRF model. The DGEX model run begins at hour 84 (the final hour of the WRF model) and ends at hour 192. The DGEX model gathers its information from the previous run of the GFS model and runs the model out to 192 hours. The DGEX model is run twice a day at 06UTC and 18UTC.

      http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f156.gif

      http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f162.gif

      http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_6z/f168.gif

      These panels show 6 Hour precipitation totals. Precipitation amounts are measured in hundredths of an inch, so 10 on the scale would actually be 0.10” of precipitation.

      So for Boston, the total event precip would be about .3 inch.
      Now, IF it were to come closer??????

      1. Over 75% of the time, storms have trended closer to the coast this winter. I’m betting that one does the same

    1. Not much, if anything, will happen Saturday. (unless there is some sort
      of big surprise. Not likely)
      Perhaps a snow/rain shower or 2. 😀

  12. Plenty of time for that track to change for the third system were watching middle to later part of next week.
    I love some of the words NWS out of Upton, NY is using for the Saturday snow showers Pre frontal trough instability words that are used when tracking thunderstorms.

    1. GFS DOES have a system out there. It is pretty well off shore of
      SC. Upper winds “trying” to sharpen up. Still destined for OTS, I think.

  14. I think the bigger story with each of these clippers is not the amount of snow there going to bring but the reinforcing shot of cold air behind them. If that system could just track south of Long Island for Monday we could tap the Atlantic for some moisture.

    1. Unfortunately,

      I don’t think it happens that way. It’s a fairly rigorous system, so IF
      it were to pass to the South, we’d get at least a Moderate snow event. 😀

  15. NWS out of Upton, NY to me going aggressive with the Saturday clipper.
    FIRST SYSTEM TO WATCH WILL BE AN INTENSE CLIPPER SYSTEM TRACKING
    THROUGH SOUTHERN QUEBEC AND ONTARIO ON SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN
    AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE PIVOTING TOWARDS THE NE. DEEP LAYERED LIFT AND
    GOOD THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR LIGHT
    SNOW DEVELOPMENT FROM W TO E SAT MORNING INTO AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
    PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FEATURE. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME MODERATE TO
    HEAVY SNOW BANDING WITH STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
    AND EVEN SOME MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
    TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW
    SHOWER OR EVEN A FEW SNOW SQUALLS IN LATE AFT/EVE AS STRONG
    SHORTWAVE ENERGY/ARCTIC FRONT PASS THROUGH.

    THIS WILL BE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM…SO SNOW ACCUM SHOULD BE
    GENERALLY LIGHT…COASTING TO 2 INCHES…BUT LOCALLY UP TO 2-4
    INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN PATH OF BANDING OR SNOW SQUALLS…AND
    PARTICULARLY ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND INTERIOR WHERE SNOW
    RATIOS WILL BE HIGHER.

    1. That’s some pretty strong wording. Hope they are correct. If so, then JOHN
      would also be correct.

      Although models are NOT showing it, this set up reminds me of one
      from New Year’s eve during the late 60’s. It was already cold ahead
      of an approaching arctic front trailing from a clipper passing to the North.
      Mets were expecting a dusting to an inch or so. Snow broke out and kept
      intensifying. Wind out of SW the whole time, until frontal passage.
      Ended up with several hours of Light to Moderate snow for a total of 6 inches.

      This is NOT a forecast. Just wondering if this might be an analog to
      Saturday’s set up? NWS at Upton seems to think so. They are describing what must have happened way back then.

      Fascinating.

      Let’s see what happens. 😀

    2. I was John, based on this morning’s NAM and GFS. Neither has any accumulating snow for Boston. Perhaps a small amount well inland and it
      the Hilly terrain.

      I find what JJ posted from NWS Upton really interesting.

      You may be the one to NAIL the Saturday forecast John.

      We shall see. I hope you are correct.

      1. I did notice with the passage of the sat clipper, there is rapid development of precip along the front. Its the first time ive seen that on the models for that system. IF that front is delayed some, it COULD develop right over us. Not liking our chances though since its already halfway through thursday and its only 48 hours away.

          2. Not the “usual” location for secondary development of clipper. Although something
            is always possible on the front.

            I would have liked the development to be
            just South of Long Island, while primary clipper
            was still somewhere in Upstate NY or vicinity.

            You May be just wishing, but as you say,
            there “could” always be some sort of development/wave on the front to provide
            enhanced precipitation.

            We shall see.

  17. After what happened last Saturday to the north of me in CT when the forecast was for a coating to 2 inches and they got 6-10 inches anything is possible. I am not saying it will happen but it would be something to have two sneaky systems on back to back Saturday’s.

  19. For Completeness, the SREF has virtually NOTHING for the Saturday system. 😀 😀

    We’ll keep watching.

  20. Clippers often act like sneaky devils. Would not surprise me if Saturday’s Alberta trans-Canadian system impacts us.

    Sorry to hear about Chet Curtis. Wonderful anchor, nice man, smooth voice.

  21. The words from NWS out of Upton pre frontal trough low level instability words you hear with thunderstorm development. It has the feel of tracking a line of thunderstorms with the snow coming Saturday where some towns could get a light accumulation others nothing.

  22. Sat will not be like last sat, but we r gonna get a very light accumulation, under 2 inches,
    Down to 3.5 inches of snow, we got sublimination happening to the snow, it’s disappearing before our eyes, and it’s 17 degrees out, crazy!!

  23. It is beautiful outside. My version of a beach day. Very little wind, so it really doesn’t feel that cold. Sun is bright. Skies are that winter light blue. You can see for miles and miles (just like The Who). A blanket of snow to make things pretty. I really like this kind of weather, and don’t mind if it stays this way for a while. I’m OK without precipitation.

    2. Love your description and totally agree. Am thinking we may cook the steak outside rather than in and I’ll do some deck sitting

  25. We have gained 51 min’s of daylight in last 4 weeks, also we r now gaining roughly 2 min’s of daylight per day. It’s obvious, but for u snow haters, where making progress 🙂
    Sun is actually warm where it’s shining, it’s got a little power lol 🙂

    Temp is cold but sunny

    1. I guess what I’m saying is, that as we go into the Feb it could be colder, but it doesn’t feel colder with the sun angle growing 🙂

    1. Speaking of the Super Bowl, officials are prepared to change the day to either Saturday, Monday or another future date TBD if the weather is too severe for that Sunday.

        2. I agree – since when are football games changed because of weather……aren’t these supposed to be the best of the best.

    1. Well, actually the Canadian still shows about .4 inch qpf for Monday.
      At 10:1, that’s still 4 inches. 😀

      I guess we better watch for Monday.

      Saturday looking all but DEAD.

  29. Still watch Saturday. Yup Monday morning was the second storm that Barry talked about yesterday saying it could drop a few inches.

  30. Hey with all this talk about increased sun angle, I would like to remind you al
    that Boston’s ALL TIME record Low occurred, NOT in January, but rather in February.

    The all-time coldest temperature ever recorded in the city of Boston is -18 degrees, which occurred on February 9, 1934. While below zero temperatures are not overly common in Boston, they are far more common than 100 degree days.
    ”
    WHY February? My guess is: Hudson Bay was Frozen and the origin of the COLD AIR
    was More towards Eastern Canada making us MUCH closer to the source.

    We can have surprisingly LOW temerpatures in February. I’ve seen it hit 0 in March.

    😀 😀

    1. With all this “global warming” we have today, I suspect that -18 will NEVER be broken or even come remotely close. 😉

        2. It is not as much global warming in the sense that everyone thinks. It is hard for cities to break the all time cold records because of the urban heat island. Cities are so built up compared to late 1800’s and early 1900’s (most records set) that it is next to impossible to break record cold.

          1. Not to mention most “official” temperatures are taken at airports surrounded by pavement and jet exhaust.

            There is also abundant picture proof of poorly placed sensors that clearly would never have a chance to measure a proper temperature, and in the vast majority of cases will measure too warm.

  32. Here are some model resolutions:

    Canadian Global: 25km
    Canadian Regular: 10km
    GFS: 27km
    NAM: 12km
    RAP: 13km
    Ukmet: 25km
    Euro 16km

    I just realized that the Canadian has a special Quebec run out to 24 hours, that
    includes down to MA, Boston are at a resolution of 2.5km. Need to look at that more often. I wonder how it did with the last storm?

  34. I think we have a better shot at accumulation (not major) Saturday instead of Sunday night/Monday, and that will be with both low pressure areas passing north of us in southern New England. The energy is potent with the Saturday system. Thunderstorms? I can’t completely rule them out.

      1. Anytime from late morning on as it stands now.

        It’s not a “snowstorm” but a strong low pressure area passing to the north tossing its fronts across the region.

        This is the pattern that would bring the cold and then the brief warm up with rain. Now that “warm up” is still cold enough for snow. Gonna happen Saturday and again Monday.

  35. The wording Upton used earlier pre frontal trough low level instability has the feel of tracking a line of thunderstorms in the summer. This time it would be snow showers and maybe some heavier some heavier snow showers.

    1. Yes, and ALL of the models have this feature, some closer to the coast
      than others. 😀

      MAYBE that’s the one?

  42. Did anyone take a look at the explosion of precip just off shore
    Saturday night with the 18Z NAM run. How can we get that to happen sooner?

  43. 2 days ago, it looked like the Sat and Mon clippers would cut across or even just south of New England. But, as the circulation around the PV has sharpened some, we now know these 2 clippers are going northwest of us.

    So …… I would say watch the midweek event for next week. I give it a chance to end up closer to the coast if the upper flow ends up sharper than currently projected.

  44. From NWS Upton, NY

    A SOUTHERN EXTENSION OF THE POLAR LOW PUSHES THROUGH SATURDAY AND
    SATURDAY NIGHT. APPEARS WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE
    FOR A MAINLY 1-2 INCH SNOWFALL ON SATURDAY…MAYBE UP TO 3 OR 4
    ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO THE N/W OF NYC. SNOW SHOULD DEVELOP
    FROM W TO E AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT SATURDAY MORNING…THEN
    TAPER OFF FROM W TO E LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT
    PASSES. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A QUICK BURST OF LOCALLY HEAVY
    SNOW RIGHT AHEAD OF THE ARCTIC FRONT…OTHERWISE ONLY LIGHT-
    MODERATE SNOW IS EXPECTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT SNOWS WILL STAY
    BELOW WARNING LEVELS FOR THIS EVENT.

  45. 18Z GFS portrays Monday’s clipper as a classic “Woose”!!!

    I’m still NOT impressed by the Saturday Frontal passage.

    Will it be FULL FRONTAL?

    Still, there’s a ton of Precip that breaks out just off shore.
    What’s up with that?

    Why can’t we get that over us?

  46. Well, it sure looks like this pattern is producing:

    1. Clippers that come down into the upper mid-west or lakes
    and then move ENE or NE and pass to our North
    2. Storms that develop on old frontal boundaries off shore and
    stay off shore moving ENE or if they move NE they
    are too far off. Some of them get sizable.

    NOTHING in between. We MISS either way.

  48. What a beautiful time of night. Sun setting but still light enough to outline the dark of the trees against the fading light of the sky. Lawns and roofs white with snow. Lights starting to appear in houses as folks get ready for the dark. How does anyone not love winter in New England.

      1. I sat on the deck while mac cooked steak. You can do anything you set your mind to. Although you missed my point. You can’t do much with spectacular art but enjoy it and yet it is still breathtaking

  49. I’m still thinking widespread 1-2 inches Sat, but I still lean to the lower side

    It’s very possible a solid line moves through

  51. The Saturday system looks like a potent little guy. If that low were going south of us we’d have to watch out for quick moderate to heavy snow. HOWEVER, not the case. We get the fronts, and the passage of the cold front may be quite eventful.

    I stated above that the pattern that was giving us cold then brief warm ups with rain has now reached the state of cold where the warm ups are still cold enough for snow in most areas (Saturday and Monday). Monday’s system will be fairly week, it appears.

    Middle of next week. Watch the system but my feeling is that we’ll only hear from it in terms of clouds in the eastern half of the sky for part of Tuesday night and Wednesday. Still a ways off so will eye it.

    1. I think it’s good for 1 inch or less in most areas. Any time a low passes north of you it’s almost impossible to get widespread accumulation, unless you have a wide band of snow squalls, which is not out of the question.

  54. I usually agree with you Vicki but on this being a great night no way!! I have not been able to stay warm at all today. I love cold but today it was just in my bones and I couldn’t shake how cold I was. Just booked flights to Florida for our annual Disney trip!!!

      3. Where you guys staying? When we go back we will stay inside the park again at the beach club, just great resort and very easy for the parks. Thinking about Bermuda cruise again on 4th of July for third time. That trip works really well for us as my son loves the kids clubs and gives us rare time for ourselves.

    2. I agree, I heard that this yr, there r record amounts making trips to Florida, as supposed to the previous yrs. we r looking as well 🙂

  56. I just don’t like this cold. It’s really been on and off cold since thanksgiving with more on it seems. I’m just so glad February is next weekend one step closer to ending winter. Please don’t misinterpret as I know there is plenty of winter left and I believe snow as well. Just not my season. Rebuilding my back porch when my builder decides to show up and looking forward to enjoying it hopefully in a few months. If Sacramento does not get any rain by months end it will be the first time in history, now that’s dry.

  58. A coworker of mine just got back from Disney. She said they had a horrible time. 5 out of the 7 days was 50 and windy. No way would i go there during the heart of the winter.

    1. Will be in 30s tomorrow night. I was going to suggest those going should take winter jackets. Atlanta down in the teens again this week.

  59. Yea I was talking with one of the contractors who just got back from a golfing tournament there and said it was in the 60s with one morning in the 30s.

    1. My inlaws who loved the heat didnt even stay in charleston sc during the summer, JJ. Nasty. And speaking of charleston……Charlie ???

  61. Hahahaha. Everyone is going south in march/April and we are heading to the south shore for a month at the beach. Something is unusual about one of these scenarios. 😉

      1. You are right. I love the coast in off season. We just started to learn about the Maine coast. What part do you go to…or is it different areas?

  62. The thing is down south once that heat and humidity stop there are no breaks since cold fronts down have the strength to make it down there during that time of year. Thankfully here we do get breaks from the heat and humidity.

  64. So thankful I had the wood stove insert install. My entire first floor is at 73 and the new furnace I had installed on Saturday has not run all day.

  65. Well, I guess this confirms the return to cold medium range forecast from a couple weeks back. 🙂

    And this time the pattern is staying cold longer than last time. Also not only continuing drier than normal, but trending even drier than it has been.

    NOTE: Do not confuse a dry pattern and # of low pressure systems. Yes the pattern has been active, but look at the overall precipitation numbers. Much of the region has continued to add to its deficit in the last several weeks and is running several inches behind the normal for the last 12 months.

      1. Yes, we suspected it might ease a bit, and it did. But it’ll go the other way in the next several weeks.

        I am forecasting a cold and extremely dry February.

        1. Idk I find it bizarre that if feb is dry, then all of a sudden we r moderate drought, doesn’t a drought take months if not years? And to be down like more than half, I mean we r only down 4 or 5 inches for the yr, and here where I’m at we r only 2-3 inches down, let’s see where we r at in May, who knows, we could receive 6 inches in March, and this will be all a memory 🙂

  66. Ace I would never go in jan or feb. Late march into April is perfect weather. Usually 80’s and little or no humidity.

  67. Been watching some of the coverage on Chet. Boy did he leave quite the impression on thousands of people. I have been reading some comments and its like wow. The one comment that stands out the most was that he was real not a fake. Same guy on camera same guy off camera. Watched the interview with his former wife Natalie and it was so touching. I wonder what happened with them.

    1. Natalie was at the horse shows more than Chet although both were no more or no less than any other parent there. First one we saw them at, Natalie and mac were filling water buckets at same spicket. She couldn’t figure how to operate it and mac said she was shy about asking. These were A shows and national competitions. There were lots of kids who felt entitled. Their daughter was not one of them. They were every day folks. We didn’t know them but I was still very sad when their marriage didnt work.

      1. I’m just curious as to why. There are hundreds of people’s leaving posts on bostonchannel. Com and all saying wonderfull things about him even his competerers. Sometimes marriage is tough. It was really good seeing dick on the air and on chronicle. He was a very good met. I remember when he retired and welcomed Harvey on to take his job, the two of them remain close friends I think.

        1. I enjoyed dick. His enthusiasm rekindled my weather interest when I was older. Harvey was at several parties I attended back in the day. Another down to earth individual

        2. Dick and Harvey worked together for a while before Dick retired.

          They have been close friends and played tennis every week for years.

  68. Eric Fisher seems to think Wednesday system has a decent chance of developing closer. Something to watch for sure.

    1. He would know as I have said before that guy knows his stuff. Saw him explaining the weather tonight in other parts of the country regarding the cold.

    2. i am liking eric fisher alot more i was kind of worried since he came from the weather channel but he prooved me wrong and im liking him alot. expecially with his model discussions on his blog. im reading stuff over there but not commenting. Anyone ever think of inviting him to this blog?

      1. I was thrilled when I heard he was coming to the Boston TV market. It was the perfect place for him to end up, and I think his stay will be very lengthy.

        Not long from now Harvey and Barry will have retired and we need somebody of their caliber. Eric, IMO, is just that.

  69. Matt I bet he would come. Run it by tk. Or hadi might be better talking to him on twitter.tk, hadi any thoughts on an invite.

    2. My guess is contractually none of them can post. Doesn’t mean they don’t read as I know at least one does and TK has alluded to more

  70. Vicki we cancelled the trip
    John, just responding to your question, we handled the storm well, I had 16 sanders and 17 plows, about 18-19 hrs from salting,plowing, and final cleanup, started around 3pm Tue, and finished around 10am

    1. Accumulations across our area for that storm ranged from 3 inches in Weston to Cumberland RI receiving 11 inches, huge range

  71. funny how i only had about 1 inch of snow and all of it is still here even with the sun shine on it.

  74. As far as inviting the TV guys to the blog – many of them know of the blog.

    I know of at least 3 that read it regularly. They probably can’t comment because of the whole “conflict of interest” thing because of their positions in the media.

    But at least we can usually interact with them via FB/Twitter or the stations’ blogs (in most cases).

  75. I was very sorry to see Barry being replaced by Eric as Chief Meteorologist, but Eric has been very impressive and I really hope he stays for a long time. Not only does he know his stuff, he is able to communicate technical meteorology into “everyday ease.” He seems to be able to do this on TV, in Blogs and in Tweets. Not all TV mets end up being good communicators.

  76. Again any thought by anybody regarding snow tomorrow. Hearing conflicting thoughts by some mets. Coating -2 inches.

    1. I think you’ll remember tomorrow more for the wind, which is going to take a 35F day and make it feel so much colder.

      Snow ……. Probably a bit in the air at some point, with a small chance that a given location will get a brief burst that leaves an inch.

  79. I miss watching Eric Fisher on The Weather Channel. I think he is a great meteorologist and BZ is very fortunate to have him.
    As for tomorrow and I was mentioning it yesterday NWS out of Upton, NY going with strong wording again. I think a coating to 2 inches will do it with this frontal system coming through.
    ON SATURDAY…DEEP LAYERED LIFT AND GOOD THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF
    THE SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPMENT FROM W TO
    E SAT MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE TREND HAS BEEN A BIT SLOWER
    WITH ONSET…AND MORE FOCUSED WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. MODELS
    CONTINUE TO SIGNAL POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW
    SAT AFT IN RESPONSE TO STRENGTHENING LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETIC
    FORCING AND EVEN SOME WEAK LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY AHEAD OF A PRE-
    FRONTAL TROUGH. THEN POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND A
    FEW SNOW SQUALLS IN LATE AFT/EVE AS STRONG SHORTWAVE
    ENERGY/ARCTIC FRONT PASS THROUGH. BETTER CHANCE FOR SNOW SQUALLS
    MAY BE WITH VORT CENTER TO THE SOUTH OF THE REGION.

    THIS WILL BE A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM…SO SNOW ACCUM SHOULD BE
    GENERALLY LIGHT…COATING TO 2 INCHES…BUT LOCALLY UP TO 2-4 INCHES
    IS POSSIBLE IN PATH OF BANDING AND/OR SNOW SQUALLS. THE HIGHEST
    ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE FAVORED ACROSS INTERIOR AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS
    WHERE SNOW RATIOS WILL BE HIGHER AND LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED
    OROGRAPHICALLY.

  80. Can’t see any meaningful precipitation around for the next 10 days. The good news … it is getting a little lighter out later.

  82. Henry Margusity Fan Club
    The February pattern may yield several major snowstorms in the East. Even the Carolina’s could see major snows.
    Like · · Share · 53616 · 37 minutes ago ·

  83. Last day in my current position at work today. Starting monday with a new job, but i’ll have a lot less time to blog 🙁

  84. I actually like the pattern setting up in Feb. I think we have the chance for some big snows. MJO is in the right phase.

  85. Its looks the NAO wants to go neutral to slightly negative for the start of February. I will take a neutral NAO since that was the position it was in when we had the blizzard last February.
    Tomorrow I think its going to be like a line of thunderstorms coming through in the summer time with the snow showers and possible squalls. Some towns get a light accumulation (Coating – 2 inches) other towns see hardly anything much like when we get summer thunderstorms where some towns get hit others get nothing.

    1. John,

      I think that the most interesting “possibility” would be
      a brief intense Snow Squall with THUNDER.
      😀

  87. Good morning,

    Busy day today.

    I read the wording from Upton NWS and Taunton as well.

    Upton still saying up to 2 inches with isolated 2-4 inches.

    Taunton wording:

    WHILE THE BULK OF ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITHIN THESE
    SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONLY AROUND AN INCH OR TWO…NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION TOTALS APPROACH ADVISORY LVLS. FEEL THAT THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE W…WHERE UPSLOPE/DYNAMICS ARE COINCIDENT AND TEMPS WILL BE COLDER SUPPORTING HIGHER RATIOS. SOME OF THESE SHSN COULD COME IN THE FORM OF SQUALLS AS SOME OF THE HIGH MOMENTUM ALOFT IS MIXED TO THE SFC…LEADING TO BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN VSBY AND QUICK

    Taunton also warned that precip on the Cape and Islands could come in the form
    of RAIN.

    On another note: yawn, yawn, yawn… BOOOOOOOOOOOOORRRRRRRRRRING
    weather ahead. I HATE IT!!

    Next week’s system seems to have gone poof or at least is shown even MORE
    off shore. Kiss it GOOD-BYE.

    Next glimmer is this OFF SHORE system fro the GFS:

    http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-natlncep.php?run=2014012406&var=PCPPRSTMP_2m&hour=177

    That is certain to go poof or move even more off shore.

  88. Several weather related stories on the news this morning. The awful chain collision of 40 vehicles outside of Chicago due to a sudden snow storm and near zero visibility. And the freezing rain and sleet in Texas cause havoc there. In January to date, there have been 33,000+ flight cancellations. That is more than January 2012 and 2013 combined. And the month isn’t over. The ice in TX with the area being a major hub will certainly cause that number to increase.

  90. To me, boring weather is what we endured last week. Mostly cloudy, 40s, occasional soaking rain, then pick an adjective: murky, dismal, dreary, ghoulish. Starting with our surprise snow-fall Saturday, we’ve had a very interesting week. Disappointing snow totals in Boston and to our north and west. But impressive totals on the South Shore. Then, gloriously sunny, seriously cold weather (these are the days I hanker for all year). I’ll take this week over last. I feel energized by this weather.

    2. Agreed, however, I do NOT like what I see ahead. Not one bit at all.
      I HOPE it changes. I can’t stand a long stretch of uneventful cold (read: With NO SNOW).

      BTW, I’m with Retrac. I love the snow storms, but I can’t STAND
      really COLD weather. Again, my ideal Winter day. Low 22, HIGH 36

      This morning was 6 and yesterday 4 at my house in JP. That’s too cold.

  92. Latest From NWS Upton, NY.

    1. Still aggressive with their wording for tomorrow. Still talking about brief
    moderate to heavy snow with 2 inches and isolated 2-4 inches. 😀

    2. Talking about cyclogenesis off of the SE coast Tuesday night
    A POTENT NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIGGING INTO THE BASE OF THE MEAN TROUGH SHOULD INITIATE CYCLOGENESIS OFF THE SE COAST ON TUE…WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO BRING SNOW TO THE AREA MAINLY FROM LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WED EVENING. MODEL FCSTS CURRENTLY KEEP THE LOW WELL
    OFFSHORE…BUT WITH AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE SHORTWAVE TO BECOME NEUTRALLY OR NEGATIVELY TILTED AND AND THE LOW TO THEREFORE TRACK CLOSER…

    Btw 0z Canadian shows this well:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=00&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=102&fixhh=1&hh=144

    As does the Euro:

    http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=ecmwf&run=00&stn=PNMPR&hh=144&map=na&stn2=PNMPR&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=144&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en

    1. With how other systems have behaved in this pattern, I’d say a virtual
      LOCK on an OTS solution. Could it surprise us? Anything is possible, that
      is why we’ll continue to watch. But I would say odds favor OTS at this time.
      HOPE NOT. We shall see.

  94. Not for Nothing, but isn’t it a lot COLDER today than forecast?

    GEEZ it’s bone chilling COLD out there!!!

    11AM Logan Obs 11 freakin degrees.

    Give me a break!!!

    Send this cold back to CANADA where it belongs, else give us a DUMPING!!!

      1. Honestly, I wasn’t referring to your forecast at all.

        I was hearing near 20 all over the place.

        NOT GONNA HAPPEN. 😀 😀

        Logan “may” top off at 14, perhaps 15 imho. 😀

        1. It got a bit windy last night and I told my wife that
          a clipper system was passing well off shore and passed our latitude, thus giving us a bit of a reinforcing shot of COLD
          air. That explains why it is COLDER today, than the beautiful day of yesterday. 😀

  95. FWIW, the latest buoy temperature at the 2 main off shore buoys:

    39.2 and 38.7 respectively.

    You’d think with this and recent cold, that they would be lower.
    Does charlie have his hair dryer going under water? 😀

  99. My friend after 12 yrs of being asked to relocate is finally going to do so, I’m not happy about it cause there going to NC

    We cancelled our trip 🙁

    It’s cold ugh

  103. Let it snow! But I don’t like the extreme cold temps. Do I like it very hot in the summer? Unless there is a decent breeze, no, I don’t like that either.

    I have tried to find out if Boston has ever had a record cold winter temperature-wise. It seems 1993 and 2002-2003 were very cold but is that a record? Anyone know what Boston’s coldest winter might have been so far? To me, and the winter is barely half-over, this winter looks to be a record-setter unless it warms up soon and I don’t see that.

    1. Hi rainshine hope everything is ok. I don’t think that this cold sets any records for this winter but could also be wrong. We have been spoiled the last few winters with mild type weather. But this winter how I view it is normal, we just have not seen it this cold. It should go down as a cold and snowy winter for sure maybe just not record breaking.

  104. What might be the bigger Story is how much of the country is under this cold spell. Maybe other areas may break a record.

  105. To me the bigger story is this is the first sustained cold we have had in quite a few winters. There are places here in SNE that could go over a week without cracking the freezing mark. That is impressive. The shots of cold we have had the past few winters have been brief with no staying power.

  106. Always thought today would be cold and not reach 20 as 850 temps were colder early today than all week.

    1. Do you recall in the summer when you get convection in both northern parts of New England and down around NYC and NJ …… with Mass, CT and RI left high and dry. Kind of feels like that scenario here, winter version.

    2. We may have a situation where it “jumps” over eastern New England. The energy in the upper levels will basically sacrifice the surface activity to get to a place of easier development (offshore).

      2. Why am I NOT surprised by that. We kept noticing the
        explosion of precipitation off shore. FIGURES.

        When it’s Dry, it’s Dry. Eh? 😀

        1. We are in a long term dry regime that does not bode well for the growing season if it continues. Not to mention fire season in the Spring…

  109. OS… I answered your question from the wee hours way up above, but you probably did not see it since I just posted it (regarding whether or not I’ve heard feedback from TV mets that read this blog).

    So you don’t have to go searching, I’ll paraphrase what I posted there:

    2 TV guys have told either me or one other blogger that they read the blog and very much enjoy reading all the comments posted here. 🙂

  110. There was actually a cold front that went by dry last evening. That was what brought the slightly colder air in today. I mentioned that front somewhere in one of my last 2 discussions.

    1. Yup, I noticed it big time when I took in the trash barrels last evening.
      No question in my mind. 😀

  112. Tk what’s the chances for squalls tomorrow?

    I believe squalls come through dropping coatings to 2 inches, would u concur?

    3. Maybe 1 inch in the hills of north central MA. Less than 1 everywhere else, and some places may get virtually nothing. Depends on the behavior of the energy transfer.

  113. Weather wise, its nice to be able to look at next week, Mon-Fri ……. and feel somewhat confident that school days wont be lost to snow.

  115. Finally, from Taunton office of NWS:
    JOHN Check this out:

    …THERE COULD BE A REGION IN EASTERN NEW ENGLAND
    WHERE HARDLY ANYTHING IS SEEN AT ALL…

    TK, did you tell them? They listened. 😀 😀

  116. Will be putting in an update soon.

    Highlights…
    -It’s COLD but temp doesn’t fall that much tonight due to advancing clouds and a wind shifting to SW.
    -Saturday will feel “balmy” in a relative sense, but some of that will be erased by wind which will become quite gusty.
    -Temps Saturday may approach 40 from Boston southward
    -Still not sure how much snow makes it into the coastal plain of MA from the snow showers. The initial line may jump us and develop offshore, but a secondary boundary may still produce a few squalls early at night.
    -Cold & windy Sunday, and it figures because I’m going snow tubing for 3 hours. Well, it’s winter, and I’m not going to complain. 🙂
    -Milder Monday, snow showers (no big deal).
    -Deep freeze returns Tuesday-Thursday of next week, storminess evolves well offshore.
    -Cold, dry pattern.

  117. I realize that the DGEX model is NOT the model of choice, but I post these
    panels from TODAY’S 18Z DGEX Model RUN as a BIG WHAT IF:

    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_18z/f132.gif

    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_18z/f138.gif

    http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/DGEXEAST_18z/f144.gif

    The precipitation panel is in hundreths of an inch.

    IF you add up all 3 panels (each panel shows 6 hour precip total), it’s about .6 inch in far Eastern sections, including BOSTON. I would imagine that the ratios would be astronomical yet again.

    Let’s play another game of WHAT IF:

    at 10:1 ratio, that’s about 6 inches of snow (We KNOW it would be more than that)
    at 15:1 ratio, 9 inches
    at 20:1 ratio, 12 inches
    at 25:1, 15 inches
    at 30:1, 18 inches

    You get my drift.

    Oh and while I’m having a little fun at the end of the work week as I prepare
    to go home.

    WHAT IF it were to move CLOSER!!! It wouldn’t take all that much to push
    the qpf to inch+ 😀 😀 😀 😀

    Ha ha ha
    We KNOW this isn’t going to happen, but I like the WHAT IF game!!!

    OFF to See STEVE SWEENEY tonight. I personally think he is HILARIOUS, then
    perhaps my taste is WEIRD.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BHnc2GGcs4o

  118. TK, we still need to make a snowman soon with everyone!

    Has anyone done/made anything fun with the snow with their kids, or just in general? 🙂

    2. Last Saturday’s snow was perfect for it but I was too busy running away from a mob of people with tomatoes and eggs for making a bad forecast. 😉

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